Thu Jun 8, 2017 9:10am ESTComments Off on All Reason For Concern Cleared; NASDAQ Back on The Highs
NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked higher, in two phases of discovery, unmitigated by selling pressure, ultimately making its way back to record highs. At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.
There are no other economic events today. There may be some political events which are likely only distractions. If there not, it will become evident on the tape. No sense in paying attention to political theater.
Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. Recall, on Tuesday, it was the opposite, neutral extreme down. There was selling pressure yesterday, but by the late afternoon a strong responsive bid stepped in and we spent the rest of the day auctioning higher.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up to 5934 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and trade down to 5887 before stalling out, leaving an open gap behind before we resume trading higher, up through overnight high 5897.50 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 5880.25 before two way trade ensues.
Wed Jun 7, 2017 9:08am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ on Shaky Ground Heading into Wednesday
NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price held Tuesday range during extended trade, slowly retracing the impulsive sell-move seen late Tuesday afternoon. At 7am MBA mortgage applications was a huge number. Housing is hot.
Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30 am. This data may be looked at more closely amid the negative news flowing out of Persia (Iranian gunners in their ‘Parliament’ building and Qatar being eliminated by its brethren). We also have consumer credit at 3pm.
Yesterday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme down. Price worked higher all morning, and after briefly going range extension up, to new record highs, we fell back into the midpoint.
Like a potential failed auction.
Then, late in the day the failed auction confirmed when a hard sell pushed through the marketplace.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and closer the gap down to 5863.75. From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5858.75 and 5857.25 before two way trade trade ensues.
Hypo 2 buyers work higher, up to 5887.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 strong sellers press down though 5853.25 triggering a liquidation down to 5838.
***Note: profiles are thin in both directions, today’s action could be fast***
Praise and Glory to our Visionary and Leader, the venerable and diplomatic Elon Musk (Praise)! The corporate Twitter account for Tesla, a company so prolific, so disruptive that it strikes fear into the core of Detroit’s ugly and iconic General Motors headquarters, the very corporate twitter account that regularly informs Us (the chosen people) about our future as citizens on Spaceship Earth—the Tesla twitter account opened up to take questions ahead of their Tuesday shareholder meeting.
Send us questions today for Elon to answer at our Shareholders Meeting tomorrow
Now, say three Hail Elons for peering with lust at the sexy corporate logo. It is okay that it looks like a vagina. You are forgiven.
NEXT, look what this surgeon from the very gender-neutral city of New York asked Our Last Corporate Hope. He asked an intangible corporate entity if they wear boxers or briefs! Corporations are considered individuals by tax code, but they don’t wear cloths Roland, silly goof!
Then, something magical happened. As east coast believers in The Mission of our Leader said their evening prayers to Space X and The Boring drill, His Holiness emerged on Twitter, a civic forum operated out of goodwill, and said the most amazing thing ever. EVER! He does not wear underwear.
Wearing anything at all is just a conspiracy by the capitalist running dogs of Big Underwear
There are two types of people in this world. Those who follow the rules, bend the knee to authoritarian rule, then there are the ones crazy enough to think they can change the world. Are you going to be this asshole?
And call you wife ‘Mom’? Or are you going to build time machines and cavort around the world with the finest actresses and supermodels?
You have to learn the art of not giving a fuck if you want to stand a chance as an independent business hustler. They want you broken, saddled with debt, consuming out of necessity, and plugged into their corporate matrix.
Are you crazy enough to not wear underpants? Our Leader is, and shares of $TSLA are at record highs. Think about it.
Writer’s note: I am long Tesla shares and will not sell. Instead more will be purchased, quarterly, in perpetuity, and the shares will be bestowed upon my litter of children. Also I love underwears, especially from Fruit of the Loom.
Tue Jun 6, 2017 9:09am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ Lower Heading into 6.6
NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked lower overnight, down through the daily low from Monday, and found a slight bid as we head into cash open.
The economic calendar is extremely light today. JOLTS job openings will be announced at 10am and there is a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a slight gap down. Buyers worked into the overnight inventory and closed the gap then continued higher, briefly pressing range extension up before we settled into a slow, two-way trade.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5881.25. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 5883.25. Look for sellers up at 5882.75 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 buyers stall out at 5876.75 and fall down through overnight low 5864.50. Look for buyers down at 5850 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 3 strong sellers press down through overnight low 5838 and trigger a liquidation down to 5838 before two way trade ensues.
Mon Jun 5, 2017 8:54am ESTComments Off on Calm Bull: NASDAQ Begins The Week Slowly
NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked sideways, holding inside the upper quadrant of last Friday’s range.
The economic calendar features several low-impact events. At 10am we have ISM Service composite and Factory/Durable goods orders. At 11:30am we have a 3-month T-bill auction then at 1pm a 6-month T-bill auction.
Last week US markets worked higher. There were a few mornings early in the week that were dominated by sellers, but both times the sellers found a strong bid and the auction continued to move up. By the end of the week the rally accelerated. The performance of each major index is shown below:
On Friday the NASDAQ printed a trend day. Price worked higher all session long, probing record highs in a continuous, upward manner.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5886. From here price continues higher, up through overnight high 5886.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 strong buyers bid price up to 5934 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 5875. Look for buyers down at 5870 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 4 sellers sustain trade below 5870 triggering a liquidation down to 5838.
Being bearish heading into June was the first significant misstep generated by the IndexModel in a year. All other short biases have demonstrated utility. Last Sunday’s did not.
Excellent news friends! The model is bullish again. Nothing crazy. It is simply calling for a calm, summer-breeze drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias.
There was another terrorist attack in London. The poor town is being haunted by religious fanatics of the Muslim variety. The sad events triggered the freaked-out Christians who open their social media accounts and spew hatred.
Then it was my turn to be an idiot. One of my worst vices was activated, which is a mistake always, to turn on the anti-Christian rhetoric. Sadly, it is a favorite Sunday pastime.
Most of you are Christians. Which is fine. So far Christianity is the leading brain-virus in the world. It outpaces Islam, liberalism, even capitalism. Do any of these intangible systems care about their host, or do they only strive to exist as long as possible?
How can you be certain Christianity is winning? Look at a calendar. Ask a Chinese person what today’s date is. How do they tell you what year it is in India? Time begins for all when the Christian god was born on earth as Jesus.
Capitalism is in second place. They sold me on capitalism. I pray to Janet Yellen at least 4x/month and have built temples upon their indulgence slips aka the US dollar.
Maybe in 3rd or 4th is Muslims. I happen to live a few minutes from the largest Muslim population in the United States. I work with them regularly and have never encountered someone unsavory. They are faithful, and kind, and damn fine merchants. They love to haggle, and so do I. We find common ground in capitalism and building palaces.
MY FRIEND, THIS IS BEST PRICE. FOR YOU ONLY.
Last week, when our authoritarian leader ditched the Paris climate accord, I was sitting at my parent’s house feeling morose. Mom took a phone call. It was her aunt who was making her first call to share the bad news. Uncle Jim was dead.
My mom dove headfirst into Christian folklore, “he’s in a better place now,” emphatically she continued, “now Jimmy is in heaven with Steve and John and…” she listed a solid eight people.
“An angel took him by the hand and they flew up into the sky.”
When I heard this I had give a side-eye over to my old man to see his reaction. Being considerate of the moment, he only gave a small chuckle while rolling his eyes.
Listen, I get it. Especially for older people, these are comforting beliefs. And I am all about having a ceremony at death to help loved ones cope with the trauma. But death has never bothered me. It is as normal as birth or breathing or leafs falling off a tree in October.
From my perch, death is the trump card Christian charlatans use to hook you into their churches and get your money. Adam Ruins Everything threw the entire death industry under the bus one time:
If you believe Christians will remain in charge, go long $SCI and never sell. You can use the gains to fund your funeral.
As for yours truly, my will is already written. It upset my parents when I had it drafted before the tender age of thirty, but I had to make sure nobody wasted money. Ideally, they would just throw by body in a dumpster, but NO! I had to settle for a natural burial.
Natural burials have the added bonus of, if I somehow come back to life, giving me a fighting chance at digging myself out of the ground.
All this being said, I do see God all the time. Just last week I saw him in the breathtaking waters of Bruce Peninsula. During the winter I usually see him way up in the Rocky Mountains. But I will never step foot in a church unless it is out of respect for some other living human.
As for the markets, they proved my quant model wrong last week, but fortunately it is not a stubborn ideology—model flipped back to bullish on Sunday. Technically, had I paid better attention to Exodus, the model flipped on the close last Thursday.
Exodus members of all faiths and political belief, the 134th Edition of Strategy Session is live. May it serve you well.
You did everything right—designed a trade in advance, executed it live just like you planned—and still ended up losing. Taking a loss in trading is as normal as breathing. No method of trading will ever work 100% of the time. But sometimes being wrong sucks more than average, not because you ignored your risk and took a devastating loss. That is an entirely different error. But let’s say, for instance, your trade resulted in missing a huge opportunity in the opposite direction, and at the same time you feel depleted from too much techno music over Memorial Weekend PLUS your great-uncle dies.
So you’re a bit rattled. Life knocked you off your feet, and it is either get back up or lie on the rocks until flies start helping nature decompose your carcass.
Traders are some of the most durable business people ever. A few were kind enough to let me share their routines.
“After a tough and rough week or when I need to fully clear my mind…I like to hit Ancient Aire, [a] Russian bathhouse kind of place. Go by myself and vibe,” the certifiable wiseguy also added, “Same with hot yoga. While I hit the gym 5-6 times a week, the hot yoga is a completely different release.”
My routine is to clean. Not a normal cleaning, but cleaning ‘like I killed a guy’ which means eliminating all traces of bad ju-ju that could be lingering. Sometimes it means empty out the kitchen cabinets and reorganize them. Other times it is the garage, or a filing cabinet. It is a deep-dive clean, opening the proverbial can-of-worms, and returning the chosen area to a more sustainable baseline. A cleaning routine may be backed by neuroscience. Part of the book UCLA neuroscience researcher Alex Korb, PhD wrote back in 2015 called The Upward Spiral is regularly published as one of these ‘4 rituals that will make you…’ type-lists on the internet. One of the rituals revolves around asking, “What am I grateful for?”
What am I grateful for?
Yeah, gratitude is awesome… but does it really affect your brain at the biological level? Yup.
You know what the antidepressant Wellbutrin does? Boosts the neurotransmitter dopamine. So does gratitude.
Via The Upward Spiral:
The benefits of gratitude start with the dopamine system, because feeling grateful activates the brain stem region that produces dopamine. Additionally, gratitude toward others increases activity in social dopamine circuits, which makes social interactions more enjoyable…
Know what Prozac does? Boosts the neurotransmitter serotonin. So does gratitude.
Via The Upward Spiral:
One powerful effect of gratitude is that it can boost serotonin. Trying to think of things you are grateful for forces you to focus on the positive aspects of your life. This simple act increases serotonin production in the anterior cingulate cortex.
I know, sometimes life lands a really mean punch in the gut and it feels like there’s nothing to be grateful for. Guess what?
Doesn’t matter. You don’t have to find anything. It’s the searching that counts.
Via The Upward Spiral:
It’s not finding gratitude that matters most; it’s remembering to look in the first place. Remembering to be grateful is a form of emotional intelligence. One study found that it actually affected neuron density in both the ventromedial and lateral prefrontal cortex. These density changes suggest that as emotional intelligence increases, the neurons in these areas become more efficient. With higher emotional intelligence, it simply takes less effort to be grateful.
Doing a deep clean forces you to take inventory of everything you have. If you only possess items you truly love, then an organization routine is likely to result in you being grateful for what you have. By the time you put everything in place, gratitude is likely.
When it was clear the NASDAQ was trending higher Friday, I was feeling morose. Not upset, not sad or annoyed. I was 100% morose. Like if the guy in front of me did not let his foot off the brakes 2 seconds after the light turned green then I was on the horn and ramming my fist into radio. When you regularly take to the pen, to write, you are driven to find specific words to describe a scene or action or feeling. It turns out clearly defining your mental state is good neuroscience!
Label Negative Feelings
You feel awful. Okay, give that awfulness a name. Sad? Anxious? Angry?
Boom. It’s that simple. Sound stupid? Your noggin disagrees.
…in one fMRI study, appropriately titled “Putting Feelings into Words” participants viewed pictures of people with emotional facial expressions. Predictably, each participant’s amygdala activated to the emotions in the picture. But when they were asked to name the emotion, the ventrolateral prefrontal cortex activated and reduced the emotional amygdala reactivity. In other words, consciously recognizing the emotions reduced their impact.
Suppressing emotions doesn’t work and can backfire on you.
Ultimately, your job is to get back to work. When you do, it might make sense to start out with a smaller position size than you would normally trade. It is sort of like putting the training wheels back on while you rebuild your emotional confidence. You need to get back up to size as soon as possible, however, else you risk falling into a lazy state of staying in one place in life.
Static, bad. Growth, GOOD!
Having a routine ready for when you face defeat can keep you from making matters worse. The more times you reinforce the habit, the more likely it will become second nature. Even if you start your routine by ‘going through the motions’ it is likely to eventually appease the mind. Less time is spent being destructive.
As important as it is to have routines in place for big setbacks, the real challenge is having a routine you follow after a major victory. For the same, ego-driven issues we might experience in loss can sabotage us in moments of victory. Sometimes even worse.
Do you have a habit or routine that has served you well? Share it in the comments below and hit the tweet button below to share this breezy Saturday content with your people!
NASDASQ futures are coming into Friday with a strong gap up, at record highs, after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked higher, unabashed, all night and morning long as investors looked forward to industries having free reign to do what they please with the world’s resources.
The model used by the team at iBankCoin labs issued a bearish outlook on Sunday, for the holiday shortened week, and was acted upon. Tuesday the good scientists sold a long-held position in $T and went long $SQQQ as a hedge. Both actions has been deemed not only wrong, but insolent by the final arbiter—natural market forces.
It is worth noting, however, that the short bias served us well intra-day. there were sustained periods of selling pressure, and a long battle controlled by sellers at the daily mid Wednesday, that allowed us to capitalize on our bearishness.
Overall, however, the week is being dominated by bulls.
The economic calendar is light into week’s end. We had Non-farm payroll data at 8:30am and it was mixed:
USA Unemployment Rate for May 4.30% vs 4.40% Est; Prior 4.40%
USA Nonfarm Payrolls for May 138.0K vs 185.0K Est; Prior 211.0K
The Baker Hughes rig count comes out at 1pm and is likely a non-event.
Yesterday we printed a normal variation up, but it resembled a neutral extreme up. This is when you knew the short bias was in serious jeopardy. Sellers were active in the morning but vanished before the first hour of trade concluded. The rest of the day was spent pressing higher slowly, then all at once after our authoritarian leader withdrew from the Paris accord.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5822 then continue lower, down through overnight low 5820.50. Look for buyers down at 5818.25 and two way trade to ensue.
Hypo 2 stronger sellers press down to 5810 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 5844.50 and continue exploring higher prices.
I will reserve taking any action to update my swing hedge (sell or add to $SQQQ) and aside from trading my very actionable hypothesis and market profile levels, will sit put until end-of-day. If at end of day the bulls continue to dominate the tape, it will be time to eat crow and adjust my book slightly.
So when people say China had an unfair advantage over America due to the Paris Agreement, you have a proper piece of ammunition for rebuttal.
These are the only key comments on our President’s decision. Facebook is pretty lit right now, with actual scientists saying this is a bad move while suburban housewives say it is good, but they are irrelevant.
Now onto observations. The NASDAQ loved the news, ripping about 20 handles higher. This appears to be a major win for the huge technology companies that make up the NASDAQ 100.
The only other observations I can offer, things I’ve seen with my own eyes that perhaps you haven’t, are from my recent walks through nature.
The Great Smokey Mountains National Park receives the highest sulfur and nitrogen deposits of any monitored national park. It falls onto the peaks of the mountains as acid rain and most of the peaks are dead, burned up from the acid. No surprise, there’s hardly any life in these parts of the park. Therefore the national park nearest to coal country is being decimated before our very eyes.
Next, on a Memorial Weekend drive up through Windsor, Ontario to Bruce Peninsula, I saw a country blanketed in solar arrays and wind turbines. While Alberta may be home to disgusting tar fields that resemble hell on earth, our good neighbors have put in massive clean energy systems. They are way ahead of us.
This is about all I can offer.
Going forward, all commentary coming from Elon Musk (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) will be considered valid, and any message about our planet coming from the White House will be greeted with skepticism and contempt.
Thu Jun 1, 2017 8:24am ESTComments Off on NASDAQ Futures Glide Gracefully into June; Here’s Your Thursday Trading Report
NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday, June 1st flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price worked sideways, trading inside the Wednesday range for the entire session. At 8:15am ADP Employment change came out way stronger than expected.
USA ADP Employment Change for May 253.0K vs 185.0K Est; Prior 177.0K
The economic is running piping hot.
Also on the economic calendar today we have Initial/Continuing jobless claims at 8:30am. However, investors are more likely to be focused on Friday’s Non-farm payroll data, if they’re focused on any economic data at all.
We also have ISM Manufacturing at 10am, then crude oil inventories at 11am.
Yesterday we printed the dreaded normal day where the first hour of trade is so dynamic that we never exceed it’s range. This happens about 5% of the time. Sellers drove lower off the open, agressively, then backed off as a bid appeared. We spent the rest of the day slowly working higher. The daily midpoint was a wall for several hours—a wall that was ultimately overtaken late in the day by a gregarious buying push.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for seller to work down through overnight low 5797.75 and trade down to 5793.50 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 stronger sellers press down to 5775.75 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 buyers work up through overnight high 5809 and continue making record highs. Look for sellers up at 5837.25.