iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,424 Blog Posts

NASDAQ nearly back to unchanged year-to-date, here is the Thursday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price briefly took out the Wednesday low overnight before rotating higher.  As we approach cash open price is hovering in the lower quad of Wednesday’s range.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bills up for auction at 11:30am followed by a 5-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  The day began with a gap up and drive higher.  Price was chopping along the Tuesday high, briefly probing above it twice.  Then after the FOMC rate hike sellers stepped in, there was a battle at the weekly lows which ultimately resulted in sellers overpowering the buying response and sending us down through the lows.  A responsive bid stepped in late in the session that managed to stabilize the selling right near the year-to-date unchanged mark.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press down through overnight low 6287 setting up a move to target 6241.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers sustain trade above 6326.50 setting up a move up through overnight high 6391.  Look for selelrs up at 6477.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers sustain trade below 6250 setting up another leg of liquidation.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Live Fed meeting at 2pm: here is the Wednesday morning NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, slowly working its way back up to the Tuesday midpoint.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering just above the Tuesday mid.

On the economic calendar today we have existing home sales at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, an FOMC rate decision at 2pm, and a Jerome Powell press conference at 2:30pm.

Investors are currently pricing a 71.5% probability of a 25 basis point lift in the Federal Reserve’s benchmark borrowing rate.  Investors will also be pouring over the statement’s verbiage and the tone of the press conference afterwards for indication of whether or not the Fed will continue their plan of lifting rates through 2019, or if they intend to slow the pace of rate hikes.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  The day began with a gap up and tight two-way auction.  The market went range extension down before lunch, then price shot higher to go neutral.  This neutral rally was sold into, with selling accelerating into the afternoon and close.  We closed near session low.

Neutral extreme down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go higher.  Look for price to take out overnight high 6549, setting up a move to target 6586.50 before two way trade ensues.  Then look for the third reaction after the FOMC rate decision/press conference to drive direction into the close.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6479.50 setting up a move down through overnight low 6458.50.  Look for buyers down at 6413 and two way trade to ensue.  Then look for the third reaction after the FOMC rate decision/press conference to drive direction into the close.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade us up to 6654.75 before the FOMC decision, then look for the third reaction after the FOMC rate decision/press conference to drive direction into the close.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measures moves:

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Fed day: today will set direction into year-end

No need to over think this—how price action behaves into end-of-day today will very likely dictate direction into year-end.  I made this handy grid for review during the heat of the action:

Trade accordingly, and trade’em well.

RAUL SANTOS, December 19th, 2018

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Small gap up on the NASDAQ, here is the Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight, chopping sideways beneath the Monday midpoint.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering below the Monday 6536.25 midpoint.  At 8:30am housing starts/building permits data came out better than expected.

There are no other economic events today.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down/double distribution trend down.  The day began with a gap down and drive lower which managed to find a strong responsive bid at the 11/23 open gap at 6350.50.  Responsive buyers reversed the drive down, closed the overnight gap and pressed us range extension up right into the lunch hour.  Then sellers came in and reversed all the intra-day gains.  Then they pushed the market range extension down, putting us into a neutral print.  Selling accelerated at this point, taking us down to the weekly ATR band at 6454.50.  Near the end-of-session a slight responsive bid stepped in.

Neutral extreme due to double range extension and closing in lower quadrant, double distribution trend down because the daily VPOC kept shifting lower.  These labels are broad brush strokes as every day is unique.

Heading into today my primary expectation is fro sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6488.50.  Sellers continue lower, down to 6413 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers take out overnight high early on 6548, setting up a move to target 6567 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade us up to 6600 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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TEXAS HEDGED

I made my Q1 motif allocations before quarter-end, and bought a TQQQ position end-of-day that I will hold for no less than 4 and a half trading days (X-mas eve half day).

If the same insomnia that had me awake at 5am grabs me again this evening, I’ll elaborate.

Until then, enjoy my horribly timed tweet from just before lunchtime:

Quick shout out to my trading plan for putting me on the sidelines before this $4000/contract unidirectional move in $nq_f could blow me up #grateful.

Hope you guys are doing okay out there.  Feel free to leave comments in the hotline below.  We’re all in these battle trenches together.  Even the traders on the right side of this move have much to process.

#developing

I probably look like a mad man, but I do think we could be at or quite near the bottom of the trough (hole? bottomless pit?) we’ve worked down into.

I will be cleaning Mothership for the next five hours, perhaps even tackling a major appliance scrub down.  Cleaning like I just killed someone is a drawdown habit I formed over the years, for better-or-worse.  Next comes the thickets of sage and chants.  I probably look like a mad man.

#tbd

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NASDAQ gap down into roll-foward/FOMC/pre-Christmas week, here is the Monday morning trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced for most of the globex session, chopping along the lower quadrant of Friday’s RTH range.  Around 8am price began probing lower, and as we approach cash open prices are down near last Monday’s lower quad.

On the economic calendar today we have NAHB housing market index at 10am, 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and Long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Last week began flat across the board and with a wide open auction Monday morning.  Said auction was overrun by pressure from selling which drove price lower.  This ultimately resulted in an excess low and we rallied off of it through Wednesday morning.  Sellers came back in Wednesday afternoon and we spent the rest of the week working lower.  The low from Monday held for all but the Russell, which made new lows at the end of the week.  The last week performance of every major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a trend down.  The day began with a gap down and two-way auction.  Buyers were unable to reclaim the Thursday low before initiative sellers stepped in and began driving price lower.  A steady selling campaign continued throughout the rest of the day, ultimately closing on the low.

Trend down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6621.25.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 6656.  Look for sellers up at 6666 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade us up to 6698.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go lower, trading down to close the gap at 6530.50, look for buyers down at 6543.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Grateful for all the bearish sentiment into year-end

The header photo for this Sunday, December 16th blog entry comes courtesy of The New York Times SundayStyles front page, which I poached from a Howard Lindzon Stocktweet.  It depicts two tiny cartoon humans moments away from being kookslammed by a giant black and white wave with a red crest.  Here is the cover again, for emphasis:

This is the type of sentiment that gives me bullish conviction.  CNN’s Fear & Greed index shows a similar sentiment and the prevailing tone amongst my carefully curated Twitter feed is that the world is fucked and so is everyone else on it.  Bitcoin wealth is all-but-gone and on paper some people look a heck-of-a-lot less wealthy then they did this time last year.

But I do not base my decisions of the capricious sentiment of the herd, or the newspapers, or even the politicians.  Or the raucous behavior of Frenchmen, or the patriarchal shake-ups in Arabia.  I base my decisions on the will of my robots.  They are my guide.  I am their steward.

What are the robots saying?  Last week they said ‘acceleration to the downside then a tradeable low’.  Last week Monday we accelerated to the downside, and except for on the Russell, this resulted in a tradeable low.  Now my IndexModel is back to neutral, while Exodus has a bullish cycle lasting until the end of the half day Christmas eve.  The robots are bullish.  Therefore I am too.

This is a good week coming up.  There is an FOMC rate decision Wednesday afternoon.  It is a live meeting.  There is a press conference scheduled afterwards and the gambling halls in Chicago are placing 76.6% odds of a 25 basis point lift in rates.  Only 76%.  They usually have more conviction one way or another.  So the hike is not guaranteed, despite being the heavily favored bet.  We like uncertainty.

We also like distractions.  Holidays are distracting.  I fielded over three hours of phone calls this weekend with relatives, some crying, some belligerent, all because of the holidays.  Bringing everyone together can be challenging.  Not being able to satisfy the desires of everyone can be discouraging.  And people are just sort of brainwashed by the consumer cycle foisted upon Americans by the forces of capitalism.  These are rife conditions for a balanced mind to capture opportunities.  This is a good week coming up.

Whether or not rates lift this Wednesday is important, but investors will also be looking closely to see if the Fed is dialing back their intentions to continue lifting rates through 2019.  The 2:30pm press conference will be scrutinized for slight changes in verbiage and tone.  Overall, Wednesday afternoon will serve as a useful guidepost on the week.  The third reaction after the decision/conference will likely dictate direction for the rest of the week.

And listen, while I do my finest work inside the NAS100 futures, I am less concerned with the intermediate-term direction of the indices and more interested to see how individual stocks that I like are behaving.  Tesla, for example.  All this fear and crash sentiment but my favorite stock (and largest position) is a few dollars away from record highs.  Twitter has been fierce. I love solar into 2019.  Sangamo. Goldman.  These are the areas that I expect to see move higher over the coming weeks and months.  That is where my concern lies.  The indices could chop and even head lower, but if individual stocks decouple, this continues to be a healthy bull market.

So there you have it.  The theme going into year-end has been persistence.  I think adding kindness to that theme has been helpful for me.  Persistence and kindness.  Especially kindness for your fellow traders.  2018 has been shaky.  By no means has it been as extreme as 2008 or even 2014 when indices didn’t bother to reflect the huge destruction of market cap happening almost everywhere outside of the FANG stocks, but 2018 has been a test of grit.  Resist the urge to pile onto someone who holds positions that oppose yours.

I am bullish heading into OPEX.  I am bullish heading into this crappy calendar-timed Christmas.  I am bullish into this extremely negative sentiment.

Hopefully I’ve made myself clear and mahalo for reading along.

– RAUL SANTOS, December 16th, 2018

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NASDAQ briefly takes out Tuesday low overnight, here is the Friday morning trading plan

*Note: this morning’s trading report references the December ’18 NAS100 futures contract (NQZ18).  I will be trading the December contract despite most action ‘rolling forward’ to the March ’19 contract.

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight starting around 8pm and continued lower until two-ticking the Tuesday cash low.  After that a responsive bid stepped in and we came into balance.  As we approach cash open price is hovering near the overnight low, inside the lower quadrant of Tuesady’s range.  At 8:30am Advance Retail Sales data came out above expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Manufacturing Production at 9:15am, Manufacturing/Service PMI at 9:45am, and Business Inventories at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up and two way auction.  Buyers attempted higher early on but stalled out before they could take out the Wednesday high.  Responsive sellers worked the overnight gap fill before we spent the rest of the session chopping inside of Wednesday’s range, forming a weak low along the way.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and attempt to reclaim Thursday’s low 6749.25.  Sellers reject a move back into Thursday low, setting up a move to take out overnight low 6650.75.  Look for buyers down at 6606 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers gap-and-go lower, trading down through overnight low 6650.75 early on and tagging 6600.  Trade is sustained below 6600 setting up a move to target the open gap down at 6530.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers work a full gap fill up to 6748.75 then continue higher through overnight high 6760.75.  Look for sellers  up at 6800 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ up 33, here is the Thursday morning trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday, ROLLFORWARD, with a 30 point gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight, gyrating around inside the Wednesday range in a balanced manner.  As we approach cash open price is hovering at the Wednesday midpoint.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic calendar today we have a 4- and 8-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, a 30-year bond auction at 1pm, and a monthly budget statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a gap up just beyond the Tuesday range.  Sellers attempted to trade back down into the Tuesday range but were rejected, setting up a drive higher that briefly took out last Friday’s trend down high and sustained trade above it for several hours.  Then, late in the session responsive sellers stepped in and reversed the day’s entire range.  We ended up pushing neutral late in the session and closing on the lows—still positive on the day due to the overnight gap.

Neutral extreme down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go higher, up through overnight high 6837.75.  Look for sellers up at 6868 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6766.25 setting up a move down through overnight low 6752.  This sets up a move to close the Tuesday gap down at 6715.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers sustain trade above 6868 setting up a move to target 6900.  Stretch upside target is the composite VPOC at 6950.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ up a quick 100, here is the Wednesday morning trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday 100 points higher after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, erasing all of the downward progress sellers made intraday Tuesday, selling progress that came after we opened nearly 100 points higher yesterday.  As we approach cash open price has probed beyond the Tuesday high and is hovering beyond it.  At 8:30am consumer price index data came out in-line to slightly-better than expected.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 10-year note auction at 1pm, and a monthly budget statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up to near the high from last Friday’s trend down.  After a fierce battle between buyers and sellers at the open, sellers stepped in and began working price lower.  The steadily worked lower, eventually closing the 100 point gap and briefly probing below overnight low before two way trade ensued.  The day ended more-or-less flat after and afternoon responsive bid took price back to the daily midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and trade down to 6768.50.  Initiative buyers step in here (initiative relative to Tuesday’s close, responsive relative to today’s open) and we work up through overnight high 6824.25 setting up a move to target 6882.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers gap-and-go higher, trading up to 6900 and sustaining trade above the century mark, setting up a move to target the composite VPOC at 6950.

Hypo 3 sellers work a full gap fill down to 6715.75 setting up a move down through overnight low 6671.75.  Look for buyers down at 6700 otherwise stretch side target to downside is 6600.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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