iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
3,254 Blog Posts

NFP was mixed, Friday is over, feel free to go weekend

Greetings lads,

No morning report today.  There are more pressing matters like these balmy winds blowing in from the south.

This week has been astounding.  We leaned bearish into Monday, and I captured a handsome lot of NASDAQs on the way down.

Then Tuesday came, and the markets began whispering to me about reversal.

I had done all my homework.  I was prepared to pivot.  I owe a ton of credit to Jeff Kohler aka The Option Addict for teaching what I call the ‘divergent index’ trade.  He taught it during one of his many workshops here at iBankCoin.  Anyhow, I grabbed ahold of the long side Tuesday around lunch and rode it right into settlement.  Right into Apple earnings and the NASDAQ spike that followed.

Fuck.  I nearly threw up from the gains.

By the way, if you aren’t following me on Twitter (@indexmodel) you are missing out on action items I highlight during the trading day.  I have spent the last few months reining in my tweets, to keep them as relevant and actionable as possible.  If I’ve ever added value to your trading day, please consider giving me a shout out on Twitter.  I need to spread my brand of hustle and positivity and not putting other investors down.

Wednesday I nailed the 6666 trade and brought in about 40 more NASDAQs.

Thursday, more of the same.  Nailing key price levels and taking in NASDAQs.

Meanwhile my buy-and-hold portfolio was destroyed.  Three of my positions are down big on the week, $MTCH $TSLA and $SNAP.  I never expect much from Snapchat, and now Match is up against Facebook too.  I still have to fully assess the Match/Facebook/Snapchat situation before taking any action (buying more, cutting the losses).

As for Tesla, it is suffice to say everyone is completely unhinged on both sides of this stock.  I remain permanently bullish.  It used to upset me to see people trash talking Our Leader (all Praise and Glory to Elon!) and I would defend His name.  These days I just stay quiet and continue accumulating shares.

On the hustle front, I made some powerful connections down in Detroit at the Fintech Association meeting.  Sometimes I wonder if I am selling myself short by just trading my own accounts and tossing ham around on the interwebs.  My understanding of the Fintech world is much deeper than most.  I debate returning to the fray.

But then again, Mothership is looking better than ever.  I moved nine arborvitaes, installed three smoke bushes, and I have laid the groundwork for a regulation size bocci court accented with a three tier pineapple fountain.  Where I live is becoming less house, more office by the day.  It makes going to work downtown or in Birmingham a bit less appealing.

That’s all I have to say.  The week flew by and many good things happened.  Some bad too.  I wish only the good to you and your people this lovely May weekend.

May the fourth be with all my sci-fi nerds.  Happy Cinco de Mayo to my fellow mexi-degenerates.  And GOD BLESS AMERICA.

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Bulls on their heels coming into Thursday, here is the NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price was balanced for most of the evening, chopping along the Wednesday low until about 8am when it pushed down into the Tuesday, May 1st range.  At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out better-than-expected.

Also on the economic agenda today we have ISM non-manufacturing/service composite, durable goods, and factory orders at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  The day began flat and choppy, with sellers making an initial push down to 6666 early on, then a secondary push to put us range extension down before flattening out at the daily mid ahead of the FOMC rate decision.  Feds left their benchmark borrowing rate unchanged via an 8-0 vote.  Third reaction after the announcement was down.  First reaction pushed us neutral, and we eventually traversed the entire range and closed on the lows.

Neutral extreme.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go down.  Look for a battle at 6600 to ultimately give way to more selling, down to close the gap at 6554.75.  Look for responsive buyers at 6545 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work into overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6632.50.  Look for sellers at 6641.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trigger a liquidation down to 6532.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ flat after strong rally late Tuesday, FOMC on deck, here is the Wednesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range on elevated volume.  Price sprung higher in the initial hours of Globex, propelled by strong-as-ever earnings from the world’s largest company, Apple.  Then we came into balance, hovering inside last Friday’s range. At 8:15am ADP employment data came out better than expected.

Also on the economic agenda today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am and an FOMC rate decision at 2pm.  The gambling halls down in Chicago are currently placing a 94.3% probability that the Fed will leave their benchmark borrowing rate unchanged.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution up.  The day began gap down and with an attempt lower.  Responsive buyers quickly stepped in and closed the gap.  Then we traded sideways while the rest of the market sold off.  Just after New York lunch a rally started to materialize, and we rallied clean through end-of-day and into Apple earnings.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push down to 6666 before two way trade ensues ahead of FOMC rate decision.  Use third reaction analysis after the decision to determine direction into end-of-day.

Hypo 2 buyer work up through overnight high 6740 setting up a move to target 6757.25 before two way trade ensues ahead of FOMC rate decision.  Use third reaction analysis after the decision to determine direction into end-of-day.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers work up and close the open gap at 6777 before two way trade ensues ahead of FOMC rate decision.  Use third reaction analysis after the decision to determine direction into end-of-day.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Today’s the day, Tim Cook either saves or destroys us, here is the Tuesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and normal volume.  An uncommon sight over the last few months, to see such normal metrics.  Price was balanced overnight, probing below the Monday cash low but overall remaining in the holding patter that began around noon Monday.

On the economic calendar today we have construction spending at 10am, ISM employment/manufacturing data at 10am, and a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

After the bell, the largest public company in the world, Apple, is set to report earnings.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  It was shaped like a lowercase letter-b, which suggests a long liquidation took place without sellers ever becoming truly initiative.  This short-term phenomenon often occurs near the end of a move, and unless sellers continue pressing into the tape, remaining short becomes a precarious endeavor.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower, down to 6580.75 before we pause and wait to hear Apple earnings.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6612.75 then continue higher, up to 6660 before two way trade ensues ahead of Apple earnings.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers become initiative and work down and close the gap at 6554.75 that we left behind on from last Wednesday.  Look for buyers at 6545 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ heads into the week gap up, Apple earnings Tuesday, here is the Monday trading plan

NASDAQ future are starting the week gap up after an overnight session featuring normal volume on elevated range.  Price was balanced overnight, trotting along inside of last Friday’s range.  At 8:30am personal consumption data came out in-line with expectations.

Also on the economic agenda today we have Chicago purchasing manager at 9:45am, pending home sales at 10am, and both a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Last week was choppy.  Sellers stepped in late Monday morning and became initiative into Tuesday, trending markets lower.  They pressed into the open Wednesday and discovered a strong responsive bid ahead of major tech earnings, earnings which ultimately served to propel the NASDAQ higher into Thursday and Friday morning.  Then Friday morning sellers stepped in again before we balanced early Friday and traded sideways into the weekend.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down.  The day began gap up, likely in part from tech earnings that came out Thursday evening.  Sellers stepped in and worked the market lower for much of the morning before we balanced and traded sideways into the weekend.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6668.50.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 6660.50.  Look for buyers down at 6648 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 6712.50 setting up a move to target 6757 before two way trade ensues, effectively negating last Friday’s conviction seller.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers sustain trade below 6640 setting up a move to target 6617.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Models are bearish, prepare to sell in May

Greetings lads,

Floods coming.

And I woke up in a calm mood.  Then I read blogs by my favorite trading psychologist Brett Steenbarger and a zen-like state washed over me.

There will be no mixing words today, the models are bearish.  Everything is aligned to expect downward action next week.  Literally, everything.  From visceral cues like the moon and May and 60 years of Korean conflict ending, to 30 different data points we observe every Sunday as part of the Sunday Strategy Session.  To exacerbate the situation, we have a Fed rate decision Wednesday afternoon and employment data Friday morning.  The gambling halls down in Chicago are favoring camp unchanged heading into Jerome Powell’s third meeting as Chairmen of USA’s Federal Reserve, an establishment that remains at the head of the free world, for now.

I initiated a bearish bet against Canada Goose recently.  It has been wrong so far.  You will find no shortage of stock market commentators who can point to the left side of a price chart and tell you what happened and why.  But rare is the anticipatory eye for charts.  We have discussed failed auctions many times on this humble blog, including a promise I made to myself and the reader in 2014 that we will never miss another failed auction.  There are 59 posts in my archive that reference “failed auctions”.  In practice, to trade them, requires stepping in front of a potential locomotive strength counter force.  If you trade a failed auction after it confirms, you will miss a bulk of the move.

Anyhow, failed auction theory and some other things are what put me short $GOOS.  For a long-form of my reasoning why, you can click here.

Listen, I will not be selling any of my positions in May.  When I buy a stock, it isn’t in an attempt to take advantage of some capricious price oscillation.  I do it because I love the company’s mission and trust their management team.  And I marry that company, many companies, like some kind of Mormon polygamist whose only wives are immortal corporations.

Anyways I know most readers of finance blogs are not really interested in my ethos.  They just want to be told which acronym to buy or sell, assuaging all responsibility for the win/loss onto someone else.  Fuck, that sentence makes me angry.

I truly believe that if you are reading my blog then you are the type of person who wants to own the responsibility of their financial well being.  Otherwise you wouldn’t stick around through my far-out Sunday diatribes.

What I will be doing ahead of May, and as soon as Monday morning, pre-market (I do need to wring my hat Sunday night even looking at Globex, thank you) is hedging.  First using futures, then inverse ETFs.  I am not sure which ones yet, and I am open to suggestions.

In fact, I would very much appreciate if you would tell me in the comments below what your favorite bearish ETF is.

Models are bearish lads.  Historic rhythms are curiously cautious.  Trade accordingly.

Exodus members, the 180th edition of Strategy Session is live inside Exodus.  Go check out all the specific cues we are watching this week.

 

 

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Amazon saves the NASDAQ, here is the Friday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight after surging higher Thursday afternoon on strong earnings from Amazon.  Microsoft and Intel also reported positive earnings.  Tech is alive and growing.  Prices continued higher around 8:30am after US GDP came out better-than-expected.

It also appears the world issues with North Korea have been resolved, in a large part due to President Trump.

The only other economic event today comes at 10am when University of Michigan releases their final April reading of sentiment.

Yesterday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up.  The day began gap up and with sellers unable to work lower.  Instead buyers sustained price above 6631 setting up a move to target 6700 (hypo 2).  Price continued higher after the bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory.  Look for buyers ahead of 6755 and a move higher, up to 6777 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, sustaining trade above 6800, setting up a move to target 6843 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press a full gap fill down to 6736.25.  Look for buyers ahead of 6700 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Big tech earnings this afternoon, here is the Thursday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight, moving higher initially after Facebook reported earnings, then rallying again after 3am.  At 8:30am advance goods trades balance, initial/continuing jobless claims, and durable goods orders all came in better than expected.

At 1pm the US Treasury will auction off $29 billion in 7-year Notes.

Amazon, Microsoft, and Intel are set to report earnings after-market-close.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with sellers driving the market to a new weekly low.  This discovered a responsive bid early in the day and we spent the rest of the day chopping sideways before ramping higher into the bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6554.75.  Look for buyers around 6532.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers sustain trade above 6631 setting up a short squeeze up to 6700.

Hypo 3 sellers regain Thursday range, sustaining trade below 6532.25, setting up a move down to 6500.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Day after trend day, here is the Wednesday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme volume and range.  Price was balanced overnight, churning in the lower quadrant of Tuesday’s trend down.

The economic calendar is light today.  At 10:30am crude oil inventory, 11:30am the US Treasury will auction off 2-year floating rate Notes, and at 1pm 5-year Notes.

Be aware Facebook reports after market close.  This is a NASDAQ mover.

Yesterday we printed a trend down.  The day began gap up and sellers quickly drove the gap closed.  Then sellers continued driving lower most of the session, closing a gap from 4/9 along the way, coming into slight balance late in the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower, down through overnight low 6475.50 and closing the  4/6 gap down at 6451.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6525 then continue higher up through overnight high 6538.75.  Look for sellers up at at 6562.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press a move down to 6400 before two way trade.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ a touch higher and balanced, here is the Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on extreme range.  Price worked higher overnight, staying inside the Monday cash range.  As we approach cash open price is hovering above Monday’s midpoint.

On the economic agenda today we have new home sales and consumer confidence at 10am, 4- and 52-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and a 2-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  The day began gap up which sellers quickly worked closed before a strong responsive bid stepped in ahead of last Friday’s low.  Buyers stalled out just beyond last Friday’s midpoint and we worked lower, down through the daily range making a new session low.  We ramped higher into the bell and then spiked a bit more to the upside after Alphabet reported earnings.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6665.50  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 6654 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers gap and go higher, sustaining trade above 6700 setting up a move to take out overnight hgih 6717.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers come in and we liquidate down to 6600 before two way trade ensues.  Stretch downside target is 6578.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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