iBankCoin
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
4,075 Blog Posts

NASDAQ up a quick +70 into short week // here is Monday trading plan

NASDSAQ futures are heading into Thanksgiving week gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price drifted higher overnight, drifting up to new all time highs. As we approach cash open price is pinned to all-time highs.

On the economic calendar today we have existing home sales at 10am, 6-month bill and 2-year note auctions at 11:30am and 3-month bill and 5-year note auctions at 1pm.

Last week saw some weakness early Monday. Then a week-long rally in the tech-heavy NASDAQ while the S&P sort of drifted and the other two indices were weak.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral day. The day began with a gap up beyond Thursday’s high. After a brief test lower buyers stepped in and pushed a bit beyond 16,600. Price ended up making a range extension up around lunchtime and then went neutral shortly afterwards.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap and go, tagging 16,666 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 16,700.

Hypo 3 sellers work into overnight inventory and close the gap down to 16,572.50. Look for buyers down at 16,544.25 and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »

The middle is a trap

Hello there chaps,

I’ve updated the weekend research just now and was struck by a bearish signal from IndexModel. The only other bearish indication was industry flows last week, which were decidedly bearish:

Hopefully by now we all understand what is going on—there are a handful of tickers that prop up the entire equity complex. They are absolute champions of industry. Immortal giants who bestow upon us magical offerings like same-day shipping on millions of goods or free email. It takes a certain humility to only invest in these juggernauts. Everyone wants to be smart and find the next big thing.

Here’s the problem with that. Most of us are medium smart at best. And that’s okay as long as you don’t commit the mistakes of a medium smart average thinker.

The middle of anything is an absolute trap. Middle class—assholes. Middle income—wage cucks. Mid-tier hotels—LAME.

Me I lean stupid. For example. I am headed to Miami for Art Basel. Once in Miami I am in a position of privilege. My cousin is the meteorologist there, and she has inside access to the most exclusive events.

My friends are also there. They have all the trimmings of upper-class living. Lamborghini racing cars. Condominiums with warp-around ocean and bay views.

My privilege comes in the form of being really, stupidly, extremely good looking. That trait is good as gold in a town as wonderfully shallow as Miami beach. My next privilege, and I cannot claim to understand it, is people just really like me.

I am taking steerage class airfare down from Detroit for 70 dollars (round trip) and I reserved a bed at a hostile in south beach that is 1-star rated. These accommodations are certain to expose me not only to bedbugs and the delta variant but also some real-world culture that normies will never see from there 3-starred Holiday Inn.

I will experience the lowest of the low and the highest of the high. I can assure you these are the two most exciting places to be.

Fuck the middle. The middle is a trap.

Anyhow, if you’re going to be in Miami for Art Basel and want to meet up, hit me up on Twitter @vinnumbrr.

Okay for now,

Raul Santos, November 21st 2021

And now the 365th edition of strategy session. Enjoy.


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 11/22/21 – 11/26/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.15, neutral*. Choppy sideways action, then look for FOMC minutes Wednesday afternoon to put a bid into equities during the holiday-shortened week.

U.S. markets will be closed Thursday, November 25th in observation of Thanksgiving and Friday is a half-day.

*Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish bias triggered, see Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Some weakness early Monday. Then a week-long rally in the tech-heavy NASDAQ while the S&P sort of drifted and the other two indices were weak.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Leadership in the right places, but seeing Utilities bullish divergent suggests some risk aversion.

slightly bullish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

The bullish skew from twelve weeks back was finally negated by last week’s industry flows. Strong sell flows last week.

slightly bearish

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Human intervention

Alright lads you know I don’t like to bet against my signals. Indexmodel is bearish heading into Thanksgiving week—a week that is statistically bullish. My trading will be light next week, but it certainly won’t be bearish bets.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for buyers

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Choppy sideways action, then look for FOMC minutes Wednesday afternoon to put a bid into equities during the holiday-shortened week.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Discovery up across the board

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports still working on converting this old resistance into support. Unless they lose this level in a big way, this index remains discovery up.

See below:

Semiconductors caught a boost from Nvidia earnings last week adding more stretch to this discovery phase. Hard to participate at these levels but overall this sends a bullish signal to the overall market. Discovery up.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish this week.

It was extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bullish for four consecutive weeks before this after being bearish RCS for two consecutive weeks.

We had a Bunker Buster thirty eight weeks ago.

Rose Colored sunglasses calls for selling pressure throughout the week.

Here is the current spread:

VI. Exodus 6-mont Hybrid Overbought

The 6-month hybrid algo triggered overbought Monday, November 1st. That is a bullish signal that runs through to Monday, November 15th end of day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

HYBRID-OB0-110120210-1

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Whoever embraces necessity count as wise, skilled in divine matters.” – Euripides

Trade simple, as necessary

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No trading report, instead some thoughts

The way the NASDAQ is drifting is real fine. Really fine indeed. But I see no urgency to trade it.

So let me offload something that has plagued me recently more than ever—folks rooting for my downfall.

They hate to see it. I am so freaking happy-go-lucky, and I don’t need a boss telling me what to do because I self motivate. I can work a room like Austin Powers, and I rival the beauty of America’s next top models.

While I mostly keep out of everyone’s way, and often even go out of my way to share insights I gain from hundred of hours of research and applied speculation, their are still lads who cannot stand me.

For one, I made a fortune betting on Elon Musk and for some reason that was immoral or unethical or idk just plum wrong. Then I really struck a nerve with all this NFT guff.

My main takeaway is acceptance. This is the role I was given in life and all I can do now is be the absolute best speculator and keep on being a bit of a goof. I refuse to be a serious sally. That isn’t who I am.

Okay for now. Trade’em well if you do.

Raul Santos, November 19th 2021

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NASDAQ erases afternoon selling overnight // here is Thursday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday up a quick +80 after an overnight session featuring extreme range on normal volume. Price drifted higher overnight, drifting up beyond the Wednesday high. At 8:30am jobless claims data came out a bit worse than expected but alongside it was Philadelphia Fed data that was much stronger than expected. As we approach cash open price is hovering above the Thursday high.

Also on the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a slight gap down down range. After a brief open-test-down, buyers stepped in and resolved the overnight gap. Said buyers then continued higher, taking out the Tuesday high and by New York lunch they had effectively tagged the upper weekly ATR band. It was selling from there onward , with sellers making a hard move down through the daily midpoint and then holding the mid into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go, probing beyond all-time high 16,448.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 16,500.

Hypo 3 sellers reclaim Wednesday high 16,396.50 and then resolve the overnight gap down at 16,302.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Drifting into Tuesday // here is NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the top-side of Monday’s midpoint. At 8:30am retail sales data came out on the high end of expected range. As we approach cash open price is hovering just above the Monday midpoint.

Home Depot and Walmart reported earnings before the bell Tuesday, shares are +2% and -0.7% respectively in pre-market trade.

Also on the economic calendar today we have industrial production at 9:15am followed by business inventories and housing market index at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up beyond Friday range. After an open auction outside range sellers stepped in adn drove down through the open gap, continuing down to the Friday midpoint. Sellers made two attempts to take the Friday mid and failed on the second, effectively reversing the auction. Buyers pressed up through the mid late in the day and we closed out the first day of the week rising off the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to close the gap up to 16,197 and tag 16,200 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers trade down to 16,100 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 16,041.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Mopping the tile on this special anniversary

Greetings lads and good evening,

I am on a zoom call and my a.d.d is triggering so I am firing up the old blog machine to placate my need to work while these people do their talking and I sit here looking pretty on the video.

I’ve been the ah custodian here at iBankCoin for oh about 10 years now, yep. Sort of hanging out in the boiler room, turning dials and spinning knobs, not really keeping anything running, just lingering for alpha and cleaning up messes along the way.

iBankCoin is/was a web 2.0 platform and I was here for it. The ability to scribe my thoughts onto the ancient walls of the internet, and really leave my mark as an american wierd-o was an opportunity I could not miss. Now I am doing the same as we hatch this terrifying egg that is web 3.0.

The Fly has been good to me. Like he said, he’s mostly run freely, and I’ve done the same. I’ve seen some shit. Things I’m not proud of but also things that were formative. I am fairly certain ZeroPointNow was a Russian chaos agent sent to brainwash our echo chamber.

Like where is that fucker today?

We don’t know.

But anyhow this truly is a special corner of the internet, and I salute anyone who frequents these hallowed halls.

I like to think I’ve added value. One of my favorite pastimes when a trade is going against me is to clean. Mid-day today I mopped the floors while keeping an eye on the global financial complex via my 70-inch sammy. It looks like we caught a decent bounce this afternoon. Will it mark low of week?

Again, we don’t know. But at least the floors are Mr. Clean fresh.

The bounce looked okay. And I suppose that’s enough for now. Congrats to Le Fly. And congrats to everyone here. Cheers to tomorrow and cheers to another 14 years.

I want.to.die.here.

Cheers,

Raul

Comments »

NASDAQ stretched heading into OPEX // here is Monday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the third week of November gap up about +60 after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume. Price worked higher overnight, trading up into last Tuesday’s range. As we approach cash open price is hovering below the Tuesday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Walmart is set to report earnings Tuesday before-market-open.

Last week stock indices topped out early Monday then sort of just of calmly drifted lower until some buyers stepped in Friday and bounced ahead of the weekend.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap up in range, right near the Thursday volume point of control. Sellers drove into the open, effectively closing the overnight gap and probing a few ticks below the Thursday low before failing. Then the auction sharply reversed higher, reclaiming the mid then defending it to set up a rally up through the Thursday high. Buyers continue their campaign and recaptured the Wednesday selling. We ended the day chopping along the Wednesday high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, tagging 16,300.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers tag 16,383.75.

Hypo 3 sellers work into overnight inventory and close the gap down to 16,195.25. Look for buyers just below and for two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Research pinned bullish into OPEX

Greeting lads,

Not much vigor in me today to write something odd and entertaining. Just sort of plugging away. Let’s see…what happened last week.

Well I paper handed the open Friday, missed out on a nice morning pamp. It happens. I am not immune, despite my best planning and efforts.

What else did I miss? Ah yes. The ENS domain airdrop. I have had the ens registration opened on a tab in metamask for months. Sort of back burnered it after I couldn’t decide on a name. Missed out on about $20k in quick money. Ce la vi.

Did some airdrop alpha hunting over the weekend because of this. I opened a second metamask wallet. Swapped some coins on paraswap. And opened a Ronin wallet but heck if I know how to port any internet money into it. (any help in this regard would be appreciated. Feel free do dm me on twitter @vinnumbrr).

What else…what else. Ah yes. I took a position in a governance token called $spell. The abracadabra network. Real greasy defi stuff. I shall explore this further but essentially you can post some collateral to their protocal and in return they loan out $MIM (magic internet money, lolz). This is another stable coin. Then you can like use this magic internet money to leverage any yield earning schemes you’re into.

All very nice ponzi-economics.

Okay for now. I am off to do some yoga’d training and then eat some punkin.

-Raul Santos, November 14th 2021

And now the 364th edition of strategy session, enjoy.


Stocklabs Strategy Session: 11/15/21 – 11/19/21

I. Executive Summary

Raul’s bias score 3.55, medium bull*. Continued sideways drift along the highs.

*extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses bullish bias triggered, see Section V.

II. RECAP OF THE ACTION

Topped out early Monday then sort of just of calmly drifted lower until some buyers stepped in Friday and then we drifted higher.

The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

Rotational Report:

Discretionary took a hit. Everything besides Materials sort of flat.

slightly bearish

For the week, the performance of each sector can be seen below:

Concentrated Money Flows:

Eleven weeks back we had a major bullish skew that was never negated. Then three weeks back we had another major bullish skew. The ledger was fairly balanced last week. Semiconductors on the positive side. Bulls not loving seeing gold and silver perform well. They do not support the rally well.

neutral

Here are this week’s results:

III. Stocklabs ACADEMY

Stocklabs zoom call

Here is a link to a live demonstration of Stocklabs: https://youtu.be/4sLqFk402AY

Always helpful to see someone else walk through the toolkit.

Note: The next two sections are auction theory.

What is The Market Trying To Do?

Week ended searching for sellers

IV. THE WEEK AHEAD

What is The Market Likely To Do from Here?

Weekly forecast:

Continued sideways drift along the highs.

Bias Book:

Here are the bias trades and price levels for this week:

Here are last week’s bias trade results:

Bias Book Performance [11/17/2014-Present]:

Discovery up across the board

Markets fluctuate between two states—balance and discovery.  Discovery is an explosive directional move and can last for months.  In theory, the longer the compression leading up to a break, the more order flow energy to push the discovery phase.

We are monitoring two instruments, the Nasdaq Transportation Index and the PHLX Semiconductor Index.

Transports are attempting to convert old resistance into support. This is classic discovery up action.

See below:

Semiconductors are majorly stretched but in discovery up. NVIDIA earnings are due out Wednesday after the bell and may serve to continue this rally or call it to an end.

V. INDEX MODEL

Bias model is extreme Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bullish for a fourth consecutive week after being bearish RCS for two consecutive weeks. Bias model was neutral six reports back after signaling Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bearish seven weeks ago. It was neutral the prior two weeks after being Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] bearish teb weeks back after being neutral eleven reports back and Rose Colored Sunglasses bearish for the two consecutive weeks prior to that.

We had a Bunker Buster thirty seven weeks ago.

Extreme Rose Colored sunglasses calls for a sideways drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias.

Here is the current spread:

VI. Exodus 6-mont Hybrid Overbought

The 6-month hybrid algo triggered overbought Monday, November 1st. That is a bullish signal that runs through to Monday, November 15th end of day. Here is the performance of each major index so far:

VII. QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“Expect the unexpected. And when whenever possible, be the unexpected.” – Jack Dorsey

Trade simple, stay sharp

 

 

Comments »

Drifting into week’s end // here is Friday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the middle of Thursday’s range. As we approach cash open price is hovering just above the Thursday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have consumer sentiment and JOLTS job openings at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up in range. Sellers pressed into the open but were met with buyers along the Wednesday midpoint. Price sort of chopped along the daily mid for a few hours before going range extension down during New York lunch. Sellers defended the midpoint for the rest of the session but we never made it down to close the overnight gap.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 16,093.75 and tagging 16,100.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 16,195.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 16,017.75 closing the overnight gap 16,035 along the way and setting up a Wednesday gap fill down to 15,980.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Happy Armistice Day // here is Thursday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday up a quick +120 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price drifted higher overnight, steadily overtaking the Wednesday midpoint. As we approach cash open price is hovering above the Wednesday midpoint.

There are no economic events scheduled for today and fixed income markets are closed for trade in observation of Armistice Day.

Yesterday we printed a doubled distribution trend down. The day began with a gap down outside range, down in the upper quadrant of last Wednesday’s range. After an open test lower, responsive buyers stepped in and drove price higher, effectively reclaiming the Tuesday range and closing the overnight gap. Price held Tuesday range until about 11:30am New York when sellers rejected price back out of range. Buyers defended the midpoint the first time around but sellers soon converted it, then defended it, setting up a run to range extension down. This triggered an acceleration down through last Wednesday’s range before two way trade ensued.

Interestingly, value never shifted lower on yesterday’s profile. It remains pinned up up in the upper quadrant.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up to yesterday’s VPOC 16,180.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 16,264.

Hypo 3 sellers work into overnight inventory and close the gap down to 15,980.25. Look for buyers down at 15,945.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

Comments »