Wednesday, January 18, 2017
I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
2,812 Blog Posts

Russians Under Attack on Multiple fronts Monday; Several Reported and Confirmed Events Occurring



Several reports are streaming in right now of aggression against Russia.

The Russian ambassador to Turkey is seriously wounded after an armed attack in Ankara.  The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has confirmed that the Russian Ambassador has suffered a gunshot wound.


UPDATE: photos emerge of the alleged gunman who shot Russia’s ambassador:


Update: short video surfaces of ambassador suffering gunshot wounds:

Update:  gunman who shot Russian ambassador reportedly shouted “Aleppo revenge” and “Allahu Akbar” – AP reporting, unverified

Update: gunman also damaged several pieces of art at the exhibition before being eliminated by security forces – AP

UPDATE: Russian Ambassador reportedly DEAD

UPDATE: Another clear video of the alleged gunman emerges:

UPDATE: Rumors are surfacing that the alleged gunman was part of a security detail assigned to the Ambassador:


UPDATE: this entire assassination pre-planned, killer had speech prepared and was willing to die to give it.

“”Allahu akbar (God is great). Do not forget Aleppo! Do not forget Syria! Do not forget Aleppo! Do not forget Syria!  Only death will remove me from here. Everyone who has taken part in this oppression will one by one pay for it,”

Also happening Monday, thousands are protesting in front of Russian embassy in Constantinople for what is happening in Aleppo.  Ignorance running at full steam:

ISIS is also claiming to have shot down a Russian helicopter over the T4 airbase near Aleppo:


The agression towards Russia comes at a time when the outbound Executive branch of the US government is posturing extremely negatively towards the Russian Federation.  The stakes are rising.

UPDATE:  The U.S. State Department has condemned the attack on the Russian ambassador in Turkey.

State Department spokesman John Kirby said that “we condemn this act of violence, whatever its source. Our thoughts and prayers are with him and his family.”


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Christmas Week Begins; NASDAQ Calm Overnight


NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight during a balanced session that held below the Friday midpoiont.

The economic calendar is light this week.  Today the only events are the Markit Service/Composite PMI at 9:45am, then both a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Last week was bullish up until Wednesday.  After the Feds raised interest rates price became choppy.  Here is the performance of every major US equity index for the prior week:


On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend down.  An early drive higher was sharply rejected, forming an excess high.  Then the rest of the day was spent methodically working lower.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a push up through overnight high 4925.50 as we work back up to the MCVPOC at 4938.  Look for chop around this area that ultimately gives way to selling, back down to 4916 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4916.  They then take out overnight low 4913.25 setting up a move to probe the Friday low 4904.25 and tag the 4900 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong selling down through 4900 and sustaining trade below it sets up a liquidation down to 4880 before two way trade ensues.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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iBankCoin Labs Issues Krampus Alert; System Signals Lower Prices Are Coming


Season’s greetings lads, and lassies.  There has been much to-do over the prevalence of try-too-hard ugly sweaters, SANTACON, and the gluttonous consumers who fiendishly file into the shopping centers nationwide to feed from the cinnabon trough.

And while your Christmas proclivities merit appreciation for keeping this dream we call capitalism alive, it comes with a risk.  The risk is too much of a good thing.

Markets are behaving the same way.  Higher. More, give me the gains.

Inside iBankCoin labs we have precision instruments to measure human behavior and objectively assess whether trouble is afoot.  Below are the findings from our Sunday review.  Collectively they provide conviction to short the market early and often next week.

The Feds raised interest rates last week.  After the announcement, third reaction analysis yielded the sell:


Markets were choppy for the rest of the week.  A slow boil perhaps.

Before all of this happened, back on Monday, Exodus registered a significant Hybrid Change % on the system-wide algorithm:


*Note the 7 basis point size vs December 5th

Last week’s sector rotations had a bearish tone, an undercurrent if I may be so bold:


The S&P 500 triggered a short bias.  The model has 109 samples and currently boasts a 65.1% win rate.  It says we see /ES_F 2238 before 2272.50 next week.  Bearish.

Rose Colored Sunglasses [RCS] short bias triggered on the auction theory model.  The name of the signal came from the behavioral condition it highlights.  It’s a toast to the overall index painting a rosy image of the markets despite the decay being detected by Exodus.  It’s sort of like wearing rose colored sunglasses which have been shown to enhance ones mood when worn.

Life’s always better with rose colored sunglasses.  But the lenses hinder our ability to form objective judgement, which we need now at this very moment.  Bearish


This is the first RCS short signal since 7/31/16.  STAMINA.

The PHLX semiconductors index printed an ominous Red Dawn candle Friday which suggests more selling pressure could come in next week:


These are the key findings after completing the 110th consecutive Exodus Strategy Session.  Collectively they form the conviction to hopefully initiate a NASDAQ position short via QID into some early week strength and to press intra-day shorts in the /NQ_F and be extremely cautious with /NQ_F longs.

There is only one data point missing—an extreme NYSE TICK.  We haven’t had one since November 7th.

There you have it.  iBankCoin labs is issuing a Krampus alert this week.  Be on the lookout for large, hairy man-beasts with long tongues.  They seek to plunder from your purse and snatch away Christmas cheer.

Areas of elevated Krampus risk include YHOO, TWTR, and FB.

If you spot Krampus, be sure to report the time and location to the good folks at iBankCoin laboratory so we may issue a PSA.  Good luck and godspeed.

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NASDAQ Cruising into Friday Balanced; Strong


NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight and held inside Thursday’s range.  At 8:30am Housing Starts data came in way below expectations.

The only other economic event this week is the Baker Hughes rig count.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day—second one in a row.  Price opened gap up, extended higher, 1-ticked swing high (potential failed auction) before traversing down through the entire range, finding a bidder, and returning to the midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for chop and balance to prevail into the weekend.  Sellers work down into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4933.75, take out overnight low 4930.75 before finding bidders down around 4920 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 4948.25 and make a brief new high, up above 4961.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers press up through the highs and continue exploring higher prices.

Hypo 4 price sustains trade below 4910 setting up a liquidation down to 4900 then stretch target is 4880.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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Report: Verizon To Walk Away from Yahoo Deal


Shares of Yahoo $YHOO are off by more than -4% after Bloomberg’s Paul Sweeney reported that the recent hacking revelations may offer the massive telecom company an opportunity to walk away from the Yahoo deal.


At the least, Sweeney considers the new hack findings an opportunity to go back to the negotiation table and sweeten the deal for Verizon.

The news hit the wires like this:

Verizon Said Seriously Considering Dropping Yahoo! Deal


Not bullish.

The ongoing drama continues for the not so popular search engine company.

The initial spike lower in $YHOO shares is being bought up Thursday morning as the overall market continues rallying for the week.  However, the expectation is for Yahoo shareholders to continue enduring significant pressure as Marissa Mayer and the board members of Yahoo attempt to sell their company.

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NASDAQ Holds High Value Even After Interest Rate Hike

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen testifies before the House Financial Committee July 15, 2015 on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. Yellen stuck to her forecast for an increase in the Fed's key interest rate later this year on Wednesday, predicting a pickup in the US economy. But Yellen also warned that continued turbulence from Greece and China poses risks to the US growth picture. In prepared testimony to Congress, Yellen said that the labor market still showed "some" slack, suggesting accommodative monetary policy from the US central bank was still merited despite the unemployment rate falling to 5.3 percent.   AFP PHOTO/PAUL J. RICHARDS        (Photo credit should read PAUL J. RICHARDS/AFP/Getty Images)

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held Thursday’s range in balanced trade.  At 8:30am CPI data were in line with expectations and Initial/Continuing jobless claims were slightly better than expectations.

There are no other economic events of importance today.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  The gap up was faded lower early morning before markets went into a slow ascent heading into the FOMC rate decision.  Interest rates were lifted by 25 basis points by the Fed prompting a hard sell lower.  However, bidders were present to defend their conviction level from Tuesday and two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4931.50.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 4940, targeting 4950 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 4918 and target the 4900 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down through the single prints, down to 4880 before to way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers work up through all-time highs 4961.50 and continue exploring higher prices.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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Supreme Future Thinker Elon Musk Asked By Trump To Join President’s Advisory Team

President Barack Obama tours the commercial rocket processing facility of Space Exploration Technologies, known as SpaceX, along with Elon Musk, SpaceX CEO at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Cape Canaveral, Fla. on Thursday, April 15, 2010.  Obama also visited the NASA Kennedy Space Center to deliver remarks on the bold new course the administration is charting to maintain U.S. leadership in human space flight. Photo Credit: (NASA/Bill Ingalls)

You may be invested in the right company when their CEO is homies with the current and upcoming USA Presidents.  While President Obama and Elon Musk (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) seemed to get on well, President-elect Trump has asked the electric car and rocket builder to join his advisory team, according to reports Wednesday morning from The Hill.

 Musk, Kalanick and Nooyi will join 13 other members of the President’s Strategic and Policy Forum who are expected to “meet with the President frequently to share their specific experience and knowledge as the President implements his economic agenda.”

The forum will be chaired by Stephen A. Schwarzman, the CEO and co-founder of Blackstone, one of the world’s largest private equity firms.

“America has the most innovative and vibrant companies in the world, and the pioneering CEOs joining this Forum today are at the top of their fields,” Trump said in a statement.

Any business-minded individual who has held a leadership role knows you find and consult with the best industry professionals you can reach.  They provide priceless real world experience in success and failure.  Unlike the nonsensical stream that comes from the blowhole of a career politician, industry pros have real world wisdom to share.

We are seeing the foundations of a great administration being laid, even if it comes at the expense of uncomfortably courting the southern evangelists and their fucked up social agenda.

Elon Musk (all Praise and Glory to The Leader) has a seat at the top table in the world, and shares of his company are responding in kind.  Shares of Tesla motors are up nearly +2% Wednesday.

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Booked Some Spooky Gains Ahead of FOMC


Namely, I sold Lionsgate.  They restructured their shares so it took two commissions to sell the position I took before Halloween.

The Blair Witch sequel, which was my catalyst, was a total flop, but the shares performed admirably nonetheless.

Now I have some broccoli to shop for some deals post-rate hike.


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Active Traders Eagerly Await The FOMC Rate Decision


NADAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring a (barely) normal range on normal volume.  Price held a 9-point range overnight, near the closing print from Tuesday.  At 8:30am Advance Retail Sales data came out below expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Business Inventories at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, but who are we kidding, all eyes are on 2pm when the FOMC rate decision will be released.

Consensus among investors is that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points.  The key is to gauge the reaction after the announcement for market direction into the rest of the week, and possibly the year.

Yesterday we printed a short squeeze.  There was a strong driver higher off the open, up to new all-time highs.  The rallying continued through lunchtime before some profit taking came in.  Overall the profile resembles a P-shape, a formation often seen when a short squeeze takes place.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to take out overnight low 4934 and trade down to 4923 before two way trade ensues ahead of the Fed.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 4943 and up to 4953 before two way trade ensues.

Watch for the 3rd reaction after the 2pm rate decision to give direction into the close.



Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:


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General Motors Down Big Ahead of Wednesday Open After ‘Monopolistic Behavior’ Comments from China


When reports surfaced Tuesday night that China would impose a penalty on an unnamed American automaker, it was evident that Government Motors would be their target.

Buick is a successful line of internal combustion engine cars in China, especially among their elite.

The threat of a penalty has shares of $GM off by over -3% as we approach Wednesday’s open.

Automotive News, citing reports from the China Daily newspaper and a Bloomberg report, wrote that the Chinese government is targeting GM China.

Automotive News added that the Chinese government believes General Motors gave an order to various distributors in the country to fix prices starting in 2014.

The report comes at a strained time between the Chinese government and the U.S. following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. election. Trump has taken a harsh stance against China and even called to label the country a currency manipulator.

Nevertheless, China’s director of the National Development and Reform Commission’s price supervision bureau Zhang Handong was quoted as saying no one should “read anything improper” into the timing or target of the penalty.

Any headwind for General Motors is a positive for Tesla.  The likihood that trade wars with China will affect the bailed out automakers is no different.

Bullish for Tesla, bearish for Lyft and GM.


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