iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
23,445 Blog Posts

Blogging Past My Expiration

Long ago in the early days of iBankCoin, I used to jest about not wanting “olds” reading the site, anyone over the age of 47.5. It was an arbitrary line in the sand, something conjured up by yours truly when in my late 20s. My plans for iBC wasn’t immediate or long term. It was simply a venue for me to express my rage and trading ideas in a public forum, doing so in private because I was professionally licensed. Well, I’m not licensed anymore but still maintain a thin veneer of anonymity — only because it’s just the way it is. I’ve spoken to many of you throughout the years, attended iBC conferences under a different name, and generally enjoyed my time doing the site because I truly love writing and even more — trading.

This is not a send off or an announcement that I’m retiring from blogging. I do not understand why people ever do that — but instead an informative post to document that yours truly is indeud above the age of 47.5, quickly steaming for 48. I was supposed to be kicked off the site by way of age limits back in the fall of ’23, yet here I am defying the rules and still blogging.

Has anything changed from my late 20s till now?

I’d like to travel back in time and slap the shit out of myself for all of the mistakes I was bound to make. First and foremost, I’d like to inform myself that instead of blogging about how stupid $BTC was at $85 in 2013, I should buy it with all of my gusto. My life, just like yours, is filled with learning experiences and the older I get the more I seem to understand the manner in which life should be lived. I used to place heavy emphasis on money and worked round the clock for it, chasing a dream that was conjured up as a young impoverished boy — an idea that if I made enough my life would mean something. Meanwhile, the time spend chasing that dream was time away from my family and/or building life skills that could be used to improve the quality and happiness of my existence.

It’s true, I consider myself to be a great trader with sometimes supernatural instincts. But like everyone else, I fall prey to boredom and sloth and become disinterested in my craft — due to the monotonous hamster wheel existence that I sometimes feel that I’m in. But what has learning how to trade really done for me in the big scheme of things, other than provide me with money to eat and drink and travel?

But then I think about my skills and how I could transfer them to others to help them expedite their learning process, hopefully leading to the improvement of their lives. I think I’ve done so on a limited scale. I do find that many of the people who joined The PPT, Exodus or Stocklabs learn and have fun in the chat — but far too many fall victim to a gamblers fallacy and perhaps lose interest in the things I have to say in exchange for chasing their big trade — because at the end of the day men want to create their own way and be great on their own without the help of anyone.

I respect that I wish I could communicate better to convince some of you absolute fuckheads the mistakes you’re making aren’t new and have been replayed thousands of times in the past and will be played in the future.

At any rate, I closed the week with marginal gains, really blowing some nice wins the past two days. I am never chagrined by missed trades or small slumps — because I know the true value is the skills that I have which can and will be applied over the course of my lifetime. Futures winners will be enjoyed and magnanimous returns achieved, providing I remain living.

Ciao.

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Miserable Tape

In miraculous form, the NASDAQ is +50 whilst nearly 80% of stocks are lower. It’s the usual suspects: $NVDA, $GOOGL, $AAPL and the gang powering it forward. The tape looks like Joe Biden trying to give an impassioned speech. The words are there, if not bumbled and mumbled, but it’s also lacking a certain penache.

My wife’s Mother has a friend whose entire familiar just busted loose from their S. American enclave of abject poverty into the United States. Amazingly, as the story goes, the whole bloodline crossed over — 50 people in total — and they’re now traversing the American landscape — perhaps in search of bounty and free homes. As per her last update, they’ve chanced upon the great state of S. Carolina in their never-ending quest towards NYC — where I am sure they intend to steal your homes. Who can stop them?

I am just settling in here now, had an earlier scare with dog getting stung by a wasp. But she appears to be alright. I’ll fire up the old kettle and make myself a fucking pour over and then get to work on attempting to make some sense of this rancid tape.

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The Reddit Top

There is no website that I hate more than Reddit. It is the epitome of bad — bad design, information, bad people. I used to cavort there and was even an admin on WallStreetBets for awhile — but was quickly infuriated by the brand of person who travels there. They are the very worst people in the world, pathetic even. The CEO is a liberal cock-sucking piece of shit and I really do hope the stock CRESCENDOS to ZERO — bankrupting all involved.

I was ENTREATED to early gains of 170bps and like a son of a bitch gave 90bps back, closing the day +80bps. I am hedged with a 12% SOXS position because fuck the semiconductors — but I really don’t have a strong bias for downside action.

I would hope, in a poetically romantic way, the IPO of Reddit ushers in the apocalypse — broken elevator pin action with accounts spiraling to zero and lower into the sub-basements of negative equity — squatters from Mexico taking over houses in America — supported by neoliberal laws that give them the right to do so.

Not a single person will do anything about — rather opting for supporting foreign wars in a distant land for their agenda.

I’d wish you good luck but I really couldn’t care less. Don’t be cross, as I don’t give a fuck if I make grandiose returns either — would prefer to bear witness to a catastrophic irreversible collapse rather than see this tape print another record high.

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When is the Best Time to Buy Stocks?

In Stocklabs, we have various tools to ensure that I have an edge over the lot of you plebeian class of investor, those scrounging around in search of good fortune. As many of you know, I make my own good fortune and have entrusted computers to assist along the way.

The question of “when should I buy?” is always tossed onto my lap like a live hand grenade. I have zero upside in answering it so I regularly tell people to “fuck off and hire an investment advisor” when they posit it at my person. However, the real answer is dependent on many things. If you’re looking to buy $NVDA for its AI exposure I’d tell you to dollar cost average once per qt for the next year, opting to not place earmarked dollars into it all at once now. Similarly, if you asked me “when is a good time to own $HOOD?” I’d tell you right now.

But there is data to review that can increase our chances at winning. For example, statistically the best time to own the $QQQ is October.

The best day of the week to be long stocks is Monday.

And the best time of day to buy them is 2pm.  If you’re highly autistic, this might appeal to your habitual ways.

I prefer to look at mean reversion vs momentum trading. Once upon a time I really liked mean reversion and made a living analyzing and acting upon it. These days I prefer buying into strength. The data suggests I am correct, surveying the overbought signals inside Stocklabs. Had you only bought the $QQQ when SL flagged OB over the past year, your win rate would be 90%, 9 out of 10 winning trades.

There are many ways to win and I am always trying to find new methods to improve my trading. I suppose the true lesson in all of this jibber-jabbering is if you’re not dedicating like I am in trying to trade better — how the fuck do you expect to ever be better than me? You can take that as a direct attack or if you prefer metaphorical. Take it however you like it. But you’ll never be great at anything without putting in the work. I almost feel like punching myself in the face for writing a Gary V line — but the point remains that many of you are lazy and try to take short cuts and blow the fuck up and out of the market. Compound your returns you stupid son of a bitches and be happy — God damn it.

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High Beta Is Back on the Menu

A few days ago I came here to declare a rotation was underway and a sense of normalcy instilled into the market place with high beta stocks ceding to the high valued high beta stocks. It was their turn to rally, the fucking retards in suspenders were going to shine.

NOPE.

$CVNA and co are back to sprinting higher again and the commodity space, as underloved as they are, have once again taken a diminutive position.

Breadth is a middling 65% and yet all of the SAAS and solar stocks are rocketing. It’s a typical bull market session with breakouts all over.

I’m +150bps early going and I really should be locking in these gains instead of being greedy and searching for more.

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Imagine Not Learning Your Lesson By Now

NASDAQ jumped 202 after the FOMC did nothing but promised to cut rates in the future. I think it’s relevant to remind you stocks are at RECOURD HIGHS and they’re not correlating with your newsfeed, which speaks to a more blackened horizon and a Pax Americana denigrating before your eyes.

I also think it’s relevant to remind you to stay focused on what you’re seeing versus what you want to see. Deep down, we all want to see collapse, in order to feel alive and the period in which we’re alive to be notable and relevant. Those feelings that you have are wantonly narcissistic and have no business on a trading floor.

I finished the session at or near session highs:

Day trading +93bps
Quant +159bps
Strategic (long term) +203bps

My largest position is $BITX at 12% of holdings — based off the premise the Bitcoin is about to rig its way higher. After the close $MU is sharply higher, so we should expect new highs again at the opening of trade.

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Fed Stays Put: Three (count ’em) Rate Cuts Still On Track

I have a difficult time reconciling the US 10yr at 4.3% an the FOMC’s plans to cut rates 3 times in 2024. Nevertheless, markets seems to be ok with today’s meeting and stocks are, more or less, fixed higher.

We were met with a massive green candle when the news was announced at 2pm and then a red one and then some small one’s and now it appears we might drift higher into the close. Since I am unsure, I am keeping my $SOXS and $TMV positions for the time being — but have a mind to close them out soon.

I do not view this tape in particular as something teeming with opportunity. I view it as a giant trap in one way or another, the slow churn up against a recent move to the upside might be a warning that prices are about to crack lower.

Trading on Fed Days is always stupid and it really increases the cortisol because the moves are often violent and misdirection before a major move makes itself known.

I see now we are cracking lower and the assumption here is we’ll dive into the close after an initial spike. But this might be another false move. I often do not posses much conviction on Fed Days until after 3pm.

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TRAPPED IN THE ‘FAGBOX’

Good Sirs —

The market is, in fact, consolidating recent gain, en route to its next destination. That move might be lower or it can be higher. During periods of indecision, it’s best to remain vigilant and small, taking profits along the way.


Traders are inexorably trapped in the ‘FagBox’

Your ideas and your dreams fall to pieces with the harder reality of the market. Whilst it’s true, more often than not stocks will mindlessly trade up and if you’re a clever man bereft of greed, you’ll get rich investing during your lifetime. HOWEVER, many of you bastards are greasy little greedy son of a bitches and want all of the money now — leading to eventual blow ups in the options, futures or margin trading accounts. This malady of yours cannot be cured and there is nothing you can do to fix yourselves, other than restricting yourselves from accessing these drugs.

I’m +43bps, with just two positions on the books now, one of which is SHORT THE FUCKING SEMICONDUCTORS via $SOXS.

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The Interesting Story of Charles Harris

I want you to take time to watch all of these videos. Maybe you know who he is and are familiar with his story — but I am very insular in the trading world and had no idea up until I stumbled across this priceless videos about trading.

As many of you know I’ve had spectacular runs and blows up too over the years. I am right now in the midst of a run, taking a $100k account in 2021 to $1.4m today. I am familiar with all of the emotions he explained in this unreal story and I marvel at the balls he had to make as much money as he did during his run.

He mentioned his average holding period was 9 days, which meant he was beholden to a trend and was likely timing bottoms to lean in heavily into a reversion move up. While I understand the mode of that style, I do believe day trading is preferable — because it eliminates the chances of large drawdowns. If you’re in the market at 200% equity for 9 days when the market plunges 15%, you’re cooked. I can talk about my strategy in greater detail if you like. I sort of figured you stupid bastards would never understand OR you’d simply believe you could do it better.

Enjoy.

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Heavily Oiled Up

Almost with religious fervor, I leaned into the oil sector with both alacrity and possession — fixated on the idea of sharply higher crude prices in the not-so-distant future — amidst burned out French APVs and pickets.

With WTI in the mid $80s now and the world ebbing into an inextricable conflict with Russia — higher prices of crude is all but a foregone conclusion.

Meanwhile the fucking retard who resides inside the White House can barely walk up a flight of stairs has decided to run for a second term, all but assuring a national funeral and succession by the biggest fucking moron to ever step into the Oval Office. These people have depleted the strategic petro reserves in an effort to “hurt Putin” and now find themselves at decades low in oil reserves, whilst also trying to keep inflation down and “defeat Putin”, having to buy it all back.

Some might argue that ‘it’s over’ and we are all voyers in a long drawn out process of collapse. While the trends appear to be worsening and the country diving into shit-tier status — the initial steps of corrective measures are being made by isolating the problems, exposing them in an attempt to destroy them. This only can get fixed from the inside — good people elected into office with the support of institutions. You and your retarded friends at the rifle range aren’t going to overthrow the govt.

On the upbeat note, I finished the session down 37bps — but have strong hopes and dreams about making it all back tomorrow.

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