CHINESE GDP COMES IN MIDGET SIZED; FUTURES CLIMB

Shorts are fucking doomed.

Look at these piece of shit numbers out of China.

Nothing seems to stop the upward surge of stocks, as fuckheads are trying to push the market up in July for a 15th consecutive year.

Nasdaq futs are +55 and China is up. It doesn’t fucking matter what the news is, sons a bitches will not sell their stocks, save SHOP.

NASDAQ futures, in a just world, would be down 500 tonight. But they’re not so assume Joey Cocaine from the Hamptons will bid semis up tomorrow in yet another ploy to walk stocks higher.

I knew this shit was gonna happen. And you must be thinking ‘Fly, if you knew it was gonna happen, why didn’t you prevent it?”

BECAUSE I’M A FUCKING MORON.

The losses continue — down another 1.75% for the day. Everything I did turned to mush. I let a big gain in SQQQ slip away, forcing me to double down on the bet heading into what will probably be a monster rally. Today was all about the biggest piece of shit stocks on the planet rallying: pot, low end electric cars,  crypto miners, and fucking Trump’s DWAC. Later on the semis jumped into the orgy and we all had a fucking blast.

The oils were again KNIFED into the fucking face lower, alongside my BTU. Nuclear stocks rose because I didn’t own them. Basically, everything I owned bid lower and shit I didn’t own higher. I was going to buy CLVR when it was flat but opted for a little more SQQQ and CLVR soon rose 40%.

It’s obvious what is going on here, the Stock Gods are fucking with me and I am now cursed. My losses are STACKING, down almost 4% for July, while the NASDAQ is up 2% for everyone else who is long. I am still fighting the trend, hoping and praying for destruction, when the market is like “who gives a fuck” and is bidding higher. No matter the news, the market wants higher.

What can I do?

Not much fucked face. I’d like to say “give in and go long” but it’s not that simple. The rallies are not broad, but instead laser focused on different areas every day. I’d argue that cash is the best option in periods of uncertainty or coldness, but I of course will not heed such sage advice and will continue my crusade of stubbornness until I win or get totally destroyed.

I had 10% of my book in FAZ heading into today and another 10% in SQQQ because fuck the banks. Even with that allocation, I am down 1% today — mostly due to positions in energy/coal getting hammered — amongst other things. The problem here is believing.

Look at the market now, bid up from the lows. It would be very easy to jump in and say “OMG STOCKS ARE GONNA CLOSE GREEN AREN’T THEY” right now, only to be summarily executed into the closing bell.

The market cannot rally without banks.

The buy retail when oil drops trade isn’t working too good.

The macro headwinds are accelerating.

Do you see what the fuck I am saying here?

It’s over. The only reason to hedge is fear and/or concern for volatility. When I say hedge I mean hedge shorts with longs. This is a SHORT ONLY tape, regardless of what AFRM is doing today.

We have a rally going intraday- as is always the case following a morning dump out. The trade here is to begin ADDING to shorts as the market rises and then sit back and wait for the inevitable sell off.

Just when you thought it was safe, the fucking banks collapse and your world view turned upside down.

JPMorgan Chase earnings fell 28% after building reserves for bad loans, bank suspends buybacks

JPMorgan earnings fell short of analyst expectations as the bank built reserves for bad loans by $428 million.

Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon warned geopolitical tension, high inflation and waning consumer confidence could hurt the economy “sometime down the road.”

Banks down 3%, only couched by the fact that Jamie Dimon had great things to say about the financial state of the consumer.

Morgan Stanley also missed today based off investment banking revs down 55% YOY.

Morgan Stanley took a $101 million provision for credit losses, up from $73 million a year ago

Cisco was downgraded today too based off slowing of enterprise business. These macro headwinds are having a deleterious effect on oil. It’s 100% over now — smooth and swift decapitation ahead.

I have tried everything and nothing works. I am mired in a slump, losing 3 of the past 4 days, down by 3.3% for this week alone. Every move I make the opposite happens. When I hedge, the market rips. When I add to positions to dilute the hedges, the market drops.

This is the type of market that eats me alive. In retrospect, the very best trade during this time period would be to buy any and all dips in LABU. Also, buy during the morning collapse and sell for 1-2%. My issue, I am holding onto these PIECE OF SHITS too long, permitting the afternoon DOMP to abscond with my gains, and more.

It’s all wearisome and those MIRRORING ME now find themselves staring at an odious visage, a monster, afraid of what they might see next.

I’d like to tell you “all will be fine” but I don’t feel that way, so instead I shall tell you ALL WILL NOT BE FINE and that my losses are probably just beginning.

The biggest gainers today are in commodity oriented stocks. I don’t trust it for more than a day.

The direction of this sector has been straight the fuck lower. The idea we have bottomed because of elevated inflation data which might lead to 150bps in Fed funds rate hikes is absurd.

We’re just spitballing here. Do not be fooled.

Below is the hourly returns for QQQ during the month of July, via Stocklabs. In other words, buy the morning dip and fade the close — get chopped in the middle.

IT BEHOOVES ME to see markets rally on this bad CPI number. Then again, markets ALWAYS want to trade higher and even in the worst tapes, save 2002 which was abysmal all year long, markets rip rally on anything that can be viewed as “good news.”

Today’s “good news” was the CPI data was “stale” since prices of commodities have tanked since then and this, potentially, could be the worst of it. In short, the inflation we are seeing is once again “transitory.”

I am not good at trading chop like this and should have much less exposure than I have now. I opened up 35bps, extended those gains with a quick GUSH trade and then ended up chasing the rally and now find myself with a curious blend of longs and shorts, but still bleeding out — now down 0.45%.

I told you yesterday Le Fly was finished, fin, because the market dynamics changed and it usually takes me some time to figure out the new algorithms to get back in sync. Last year I was out of sync from spring thru winter, plodding along with monstrous gains that had been achieved early in the year. While I am not “bleeding out” per se, only down 1.5% from the highs, I do not feeeeeeel in control.

CPI came in hot as fuck at 9.1%, the hottest rate of inflation since 1981. This jump has caused the odds of a 100bps hike at the next Fed meeting soar to 35%.

As a result, the entire market melted away and is now gone. NASDAQ FUTS are down 275 and VIX is soaring.

I step into today’s melee 25% SQQQ, 10% UVIX.

The Fly is back.

I had numerous chances to sell my DWAC and did not take it. I had gains in BEAM and looked the other way. I took a MONSTER 25% position in SQQQ and saw the market collapse yet I did not book the gain. I trading like a massive piece of shit today, the sort of passive trading one does when one believes God himself is into bestowing profits unto you. It was the very worst trading session for me since January, in a year that has been charmed with win after win.

I have no desire to couch my losses with words of encouragement or items that I might bring up to make the reader believe that I will make it all back. I am finished, done. The winning streak has ended and if I’m not careful I will soon be staring down the barrel of IMMENSE losses.

Month to date I am now down 0.9%. This could be just the beginning of my losses, as I am prone to partake in during periods of not knowing the fuck is going on. I simply fall out of sync and remain that way until I make fundamental changes to adjust to a new paradigm.

I am positioned wrong into tomorrow’s CPI numbers, with far too much exposure into a news item that I have no idea what is to come.

The Fly is over, 100% done.

The past 3 trading days I’ve been ENTREATED to losses of greater than 2%. This is a rare occurrence for me, a person who seemingly prides himself on prevailing SHARPE ratios and sublime market hand. If I didn’t know any better I’d say my streak is over. Fin.

All of the automatic gains were predicated on WAR, high commodity prices, and lower stocks. We are now in a new paradigm where the opposite of that shit is trending.

Now I will attempt to assimilate into this new trading environ, but I know my biases are too strong and I will knee-jerk right back into the early 2022 trades.

I closed out my hedges and now have all longs, 35% cash, -2.5% for the session like a gorilla brained loser.