Trump’s Second Assassination Attempt and What It Means for Markets

Without getting too much in the weeds, it appears the person responsible for attempting to kill Trump this weekend, Ryan Routh, was a mercenary for Ukraine and active recruiter for the Ukrainian military. He was a prolific donator to the democratic super pac Act Blue and viewed Trump as someone who ought to be killed, rather than run for President.

This sentiment, unfortunately, is shared by many people on the left and we’ve come to a place and time in America where political violence and persecutions are normal practice and it’s only getting worse.

But because of this unbelievable second assassination attempt, I think Trump’s voter base will consolidate and permit him to win the election this November. I think many on the right we waffling with this older Trump due to being less radical than 2016. People want change and they don’t want to hope about it anymore. We are a nation with incredible potential and incredible risk and this is reflected in the stock market almost every single day.

Bottom line: Trump will win this November, in my opinion, and this is bullish for markets. The low hanging fruit is in the financials and Russell 2000. A Harris win doesn’t mean bear market; but it just won’t be like a Trump win, which will almost assuredly get the speculative fervor going again.

Things are fresh in your mind now but soon this recent month of action will pass and you will forget which stocks worked in this oversold cycle, small fears over the Yen increasing in value, other ancillary fears about the valuations of semiconductors.

I do this with all big events, including but not limited to hurricanes, tragedies, wars, liquidity panics, financials crises, recessions, booms etc.

Markets lifted between 4 and 6% the past week, so keep track of notable stocks that did 3x more than that, for future reference. The next time markets slide 10%, you’ll have a go to list of stocks that participate with markets.

Here are some notable ETFs, weekly returns.

$JNUG +30%
$SOXL +29%
$FNGU +24%
$BITX +24%
$TQQQ +18%
$TNA +13%

In Stocklabs, I created a list, cherry picked relevant names according to market cap groupings.

In case you’re wondering, as you eat tuna fish from a can, our mean reversion oversold signal was in fact flawless: SHOMP.

Imagine how retarded you’ll all be once I am gone.

Sirs

Here is a little data for you concerning performance in the month of October for Bitcoin.

You’re probably thinking “this time is different”, but are you prepared to live with that decision? We are bullish in the intermediate term, barreling headfirst into Hallow’s Eve.

My day went as expected, extracted +48bps from the market and closed up 2% for the week. I have been slumping, so it’s good to see a little progress. You have to understand, and let this be known, I am presently at the desk looking at the market maybe 2 hours per day, now that I am “getting back in the biz” and taking calls with prospective investors. For those wanting to inquire, email me at flybroker at gmail.

Other than that, my lawn looks like absolute shit, which is particularly disheartening since I’ve put so much fucking effort into the damn thing. Alas, I might have to just sell this stupid house to escape this lawn. It’s so embarrassing.

Mrs. Fly is at the door now waiting for me to drive her to Whole Foods, where we will spend $500 on a few bags of groceries. After that, I might partake in a little dry gin martini drinking, some light jazz music, and perhaps a small morsel of food to ingest, not too much as I like to avoid being rotund.

I am often harangued by monsters who are permanently short the NASDAQ and always losing money with comments such as “THE BIG CRASH IS COMING” or “YOU’RE SO DUMB BRO, THE TOP IS IN.” Shut the fuck up with your ideologies. I have strong opinions too and want things a certain way; but I cannot manifest these things into existence, you fucking morons.

We have a ripper on our hands and markets like the action, no matter what you think.

We have the Fed coming out next week with cheap money deals, which is going to lead to MULTIPLE EXPANSION, depending on how cheap the money will get.

What does that mean?

Capital intensive companies trade at multiples based on their FCF. With rates coming down and the cost to borrow cheaper, the valuations by which those corporations are valued go up. This is why you’re seeing shares of $CLX and $PG jimmy higher. This has more to do with access to cheap capital than the specter of doom and flight to risk averse stocks. Before making decisions, you should become smart.

I have been allocating all day, tactically on the long side, leveraged long at 121% equity. It is a rare occasion when I step into the arena with the confidence of a lion amidst the zebra; but that is exactly what I am doing today.

I do not need to justify myself, only to tell you that is what I am doing. I am long a pastiche of names, mostly in tech, but in other areas too. I have a large $TQQQ position in order to capture the NASDAQ and have a long bias predicated on recent mean reversion signals inside Stocklabs and also my own intuition.

Some of you at the gymnasium now believe you to be better than me, because you are +2.38% to my paltry +0.54%; but you’d be wrong. One thousand years could elapse and of those 1,000 you might best me in a handful of months, likely due to me being bored or distracted with idle nuisances. You should feel solace in the fact you have access to me, an extraordinary mind in the market place of ideas, a person multi faceted, multi talented, polymath to the maximum degrees.

Whilst it’s true, my annual gains are pedestrian at just 11% and being pedestrian isn’t something noble or in fact “extraordinary.” But I entreat you to keep watching and pay attention to the rhythm of my cadence, as I eventually and ultimately crush markets with the fervor of a hippopatamus inside a china shoppe.

Quick thoughts on rates and their relationship with stocks:

We found a way to circumvent economic cycles, apparently, and went through a massive hiking cycle without seeing it affect markets or the general economy to any large degree. Now with rates heading lower, Wall Street is already hopping on asset classes that traditionally benefit: namely REITs.

$IYR

REITs are heavily indebted entities who pay out 90% of profits in the form of dividends. Other areas that benefit from lower rates include, but not limited to, industrials, homebuilders, utilities and any company reliant on debt issuance. With rates coming down, those stocks might undergo “multiple expansion” to account for the increased profitability they’re going to enjoy with lower cost to borrow and service their debt.

The only downside to cheaper credit is the potential said credit might one day lead to another bubble. We’ll cross that road once there.

It was supposed to be all bad and then it ended up all good, leaving me with a sentimental feeling of success and fervor, something akin to how I felt every single day during the 2020 to 2021 markets. I closed +153bps, with some pretty extraordinary day trades, which I still have on.

My intent is to perhaps liquidate them at the open and keep a core group of stocks in the kitty. While markets did close great today and the Stocklabs oversold signal did bank once again, I’d be lying to you if I said “the coast is clear.”

Here are the open positions I took this morning.

Had I not done anything and just sat there like a fucking moron, like most of your advisors, I’d barely be up today, or perhaps down.

How predictable is this tape? Quite. It tanks every fucking morning at the open and then jimmies higher for the duration. I track the actual stats.

That’s 1 up 6 down in $QQQ from the 10am to 11am hour, for the net loss of 0.58%

People figured out it was all bullshit and have now lit up markets with buy orders. I have positioned myself for such an occasion and turned my frown upside down, now +15bps up more than 1% from my lows.

During periods like this it’s important to remember that Le Fly will reign supreme and figure it out. Just when you think Fly is finished and lots in the amber of his own machination, BAM! he comes back with a 10 trade winning streak.

Are we bullish? Yes. We are also hesitant about small caps, since the smalls suck. Think of the small caps like you would the poors and understand they have very little to offer, aside form idle entertainment.

Into the close, I am confident in the rally maintaining or even adding to the tone and tenor, reducing the bears to caricatures of their own monstrosities.

This could be the worst tape of them all, with absolutely no place to hide. The Dow is being taken to the woodshed, off by nearly 700. All of the defensive areas are down 1 to 1.5% and the sole outperformers are in solar, since both Trump and Harris like it.

The huge standout is the banks. After the $JPM plunge yesterday you’d think we’d get a bounce, but not even close. The $XLF is hammered for 2.3% and the $KRE is off by 3.4%. The Russell is lower by 1.85% and breadth is an abysmal 28%. We have gone straight to hell from the open, all red candles, nothing but pain.

The reason, apparently, is Trump lost the debate. To me, that makes no sense, even if it were true. No one really gives a fuck about the debate and minds were not changed. But that’s the way it was perceived and that’s why Trump sensitive sectors are getting railed.

Unfortunately, I have a portfolio filled with defensive stocks and those aren’t being defensive today, in spite of rates dropping again. I will hold these for another day to see if we turn up tomorrow and maintain an 11.5% hedge in $TZA, but still down 94bps for the session.

This is my worst month since August 2023 and typifies the type of year I am having, middling. I am +8.5% for 2024, way off previous years and frankly struggling to find my fat pitch or any semblance of rhythm. The good news for all of you, or at least the one’s emailing me to potentially manage your money, is that I am streaky and by the time I am ready to go, I will most likely be due for a streak to the upside.

No matter how poorly I trade and for how long, I always manage to bust loose to new highs. I find the key during periods of duress is not try to “make up” for losses in a day via wild eyed gambits. Often times people overcompensate for losses with insane bets in the hopes of turning it around and that’s exactly what they are: hopes.

Into tomorrow I am 33% cash, 11.5% $SQQQ, the rest long. I had some hedges very green earlier but didn’t close them out before the 1,000 green candles into the close. I can either sulk about it or forget it, since it already happened. I will choose to undoubtedly fucking sulk on it.