INFLATION ABATING?

I just got back from Davidson, NC — on a long sojourn from Cary to Charlotte and I’m exhausted. It appears futures are soft again and with it commodities. If we continue getting routed like this — the market will begin to consider it pricing in recession or slowing economic output. If that occurs and nothing new out of Russia, there is a chance we could see oil get absolutely routed alongside all other commodities, similar to what we saw in 2008.

This will not end neatly, however. And before this deflations cycle does end, if that’s what’s about to happen, people will begin to lose their jobs en masse. Rates will collapse and by summer the Fed will once again be out of touch with reality — tightening into a hard economic collapse.

This is all setting up wonderfully for a Fall crash.

Goodnite.

There’s nothing you can do about it. I am going to place the blame entirely on Biden and you also can’t do anything about that either. As dumb as Trump was, he didn’t have a crackhead for a son and he didn’t purposely try to get us into a World War and FUCK UP the entire nation via RAMPANT inflation. These sons a bitches are COLLAPSING the US economy on purpose. Prove me wrong, you son of a bitch.

BEHOLD THE PAEGENTRY OF LOSSES. You awaken to a much lower 401k plan on a daily basis and then get RAPED at the Whole Foods when attempting to buy small pieces of meat for supper.

We do not need to look at charts like children or get emotional about the better days we once had like women. You are in a BEAR FUCKING MARKET and you will endure it, internalize the pain and deal with it. You will not buy dips and you will only BELIEVE or be FOOLED — because the entire West is en route for collision with the East and from my vantage point — we are outnumbered.

Never underestimate evil, so I am sure we will prevail and enclose the yoke of oppression of those we conquer for the next 100 years. But none of that is boolish for stocks and none of these rate hikes is good for your 401k, soon to be 200.5k.

Let me be clear in case you’re retarded and lacked the composure to read any of the stuff above: STOCKS WILL BE CUT IN HALF FROM HERE.

WE ARE OVERSOLD ON OUR 10YR ALGOS INSIDE Stocklabs. The percent of large caps bullish is now 7.6%, a metric that is nearly full proof when under 10% when timing bottoms for mean reversion trades.

LISTEN TO ME:

Buy when the crowd is scared — but never believe in the future being bright and cheerful. I took measured positions into the final hour in the NASDAQ, FANG stocks, oils and ag but hedged with UVXY at 10% and 60% cash. Because I am a great trader, I managed a gain of 1.67% today, in spite of the fact that I was 80% cash when the day began. My shorts worked so wonderfully, so beautifully, I enjoyed outsized gains in spite having very little risk.

I will never teach you how to trade well because I have no interest in it. Traders aren’t made — but born. Moreover, people who do well in the markets and sell you the idea they can make you great too are lying cocksuckers. If you want to trade well the answer is simple: copy whatever the hell I am doing inside Stocklabs and live happily ever after.

Good day.

When you’re buying into a single safe haven as the world burns around you, you must be cognizant of several things.

1. No one is safe.
2. Eventually your trade will become crowded and ruined.

This is precisely how it happened in 2008 and it’s happening now again with coal, ag, oils and soon steel.

CLF posted great numbers, ripped 10% higher, and is now down.

The entire market is heaving over and I don’t want to get too dramatic here, as I am barely profiting from this collapse, up 1.3% with 78% cash. I will admit, however, we are oversold and we can bounce Monday.

But let’s not be stupid and see this for what it is: a rout. The market is sick and all of the safe havens smoked out.

Trade accordingly.

Perhaps it’s a bit drama Kingish to suggest “OMG SOME FUNDS ARE DEFINITELY BLOWING UP NOW” but it’s always a possibility.

This morning oils are bid and everything else, or at least most stocks are down. I’m only holding shorts now, 78% cash, because the commodity trade has me a little worried. Again, I might be falling into unnecessary FUD. Not sure yet.

Basically everything is bearish now, save old man divvy stocks, and interest rates are soaring and input costs remain elevated. Not a bullish set up worth exploring, if I might be so bold.

This just in.

FINLAND WILL SUBMIT AN APPLICATION FOR NATO MEMBERSHIP IN THE COMING WEEKS; FINLAND MEMBERSHIP WILL BE ACCEPTED BY THE SUMMER – FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE

Context:

RUSSIA SAYS IF FINLAND OR SWEDEN JOIN NATO THERE WILL BE “DETRIMENTAL” MILITARY CONSEQUENCES pic.twitter.com/fYHhZ2Bj0n

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) February 25, 2022

RUSSIA'S MEDVEDEV SAYS: IF SWEDEN AND FINLAND JOIN NATO THEN RUSSIA WILL TAKE MEASURES IN BALTIC

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) April 14, 2022

This is an escalation. There are two ways to look at this and two ways alone. The leaders of Finland aren’t afraid of provoking military conflict with Russia, whom they believe “have gone crazy.” In other words, they are okay with doing things that will directly cause the deaths of their citizenry.

The flip side is independence from Russia means being able to make decisions for Finland without fear of reprisal. If they folded on the non existent NATO matter, why Russia might ask for Finnish ports to protect them against a German invasion of Leningrad.

No matter what side you fall on, this is worse for the specter of peace and only hastens the war path NATO is on with Russia.

I can all but guarantee you that this market breakdown will result in RETESTING the 2022 lows.

That much to me is certain. The pain and agony will happen all at once, as commodity winners quickly turn into loser with hedge funds liquidating to save their skins. There is going to be a race for the exits — but the exits are a funnel and only a few can leave at once — spilled out into a war torn hell-scape of apocalyptic qualities.

On a longer term basis, I very much would like to tell you that “it’s over” and “OMG WE ARE SOO DONE” in my best Long Island accent impersonation. However, it’s too early to make long term predictions. Plus anyway, I am always wrong on them.

I remained in 78% cash the whole day, and although tempted to trade — I knew it was best to stay away. Early on the old man PG, CL, Ks of the world popped — but they lost luster around noon and faded. Everything faded, even the airlines, which were very strong all day. Literally, there wasn’t any place to hide.

I close the session -1.2%, long only $UVXY and $SQQQ — prepared to buy some dips (for trades) at the open tomorrow.

We haven’t even had bad economic data yet. SHOP is down 65% and they haven’t missed earnings YET. All of these stocks before you down 60% WILL GET CUT IN HALF AGAIN before this is all said and done.

Today’s tape is MOST IMPORTANT because it represents liquidation and/or recession trading.

This is what is working and what will continue to work when GDP dives -3%.

KHC, MO, CPB, KO, WEC, FLO, VZ, DGX, ABC, T, MNST, EA, COLD.

Got it?

WE ARE DOOMED and barreling straight for recession. Once there, the commodity bubble will POP and all of the oils will get drubbed back down into their barrels and then and only then will despair rule over Wall Street. Up until now, people have been hiding out in commodities — hoping for supply disruptions and inflation to save them. We will go from inflation to deflation in a blink of an eye — once this all collapses.

Source of funds: everything.

ENPH down 12% is a major red flag and do not be surprised to see the commodity sector get hit harder than you thought possible. It’s not because prices are weak — but because hedge funds are now BLOWING THE FUCK UP AND OUT and will be FORCED to sell their holdings to raise funds to meet redemptions.

Listen to me, The Black Flag of certain death is flying on the vessel now and grape is being shot into your portfolios. The selling in names like GNRC, SE, ENPH, MOS, PLUG, AA, CCJ  is FRANTIC and people are losing their shit — because the market is crashing now and there isn’t anything you or your stupid friends can do about it.

I sold everything but my shorts — because fuck this tape — and I will not be doing anything until end of session.

I was doing fine up until the market opened and my losses stacked. Last night AA Poster weaker than expected results, hammering the stock lower; and today FCX gave it a go and lowered guidance. This is coming off the backs of RECORD commodity prices.

So the question I’m asking myself here is: what the fuck is going on here? If demand isn’t causing prices of these commodities to rise, what is?

I guess we are enjoying rising inflation with runaway to the downside economic activity. This is not fine.

I’m down over 200bps for the session and my trading hand is cold. I’ll need to reassess and I’ve already done so by liquidating my losers.

Even though the market appears to be strong today — DO NOT BE FOOLED. That’s all Tesla. Most Stocks are down, with breadth at 49%.