The Bear Market Has Been Paused

I bring you nothing but bad news. The market collapse we had hoped and dreamed would happen in October did not happen. It wasn’t pleasant and bulls certainly got kicked around — but no crash. Since we’re lifting again in brainless dodo bird fashion, I decided to join the fracas for the sake of my performance sheet and sanity.

I held onto my semiconductor short for as long as I could — but in the end gave it up as markets spiraled higher. Today’s reversals are most scene in the Russell 2000, an index up just 9% over the past 5 years vs +108% for the NASDAQ.

At any rate, there are strong seasonal trends favoring the bulls into November and you’d be wise not to underestimate the power of the gravy. Heading into late afternoon, I am +43bps. I tell you these things so you can have peace of mind, knowing full well “The Fly” is ready and able to take care of himself in any environ. Just know, the market could be +5000 or -5000 on any given day and I would have adapted to it like the consummate professional that I am, boasting of a +50bps gain during that extraordinary session.

SIRS

Nothing really worked for me this morning, with exception to betting against science. The fucking scientists fumbled the football and got their jaws punched loose at the open. I was able to sell a 22% $LABD position up 5%. I’m long small caps and short semis, based upon the position of stars and the moon.

Today is Halloween. The entire neighborhood is soon to be filled with little ghosts and goblins in search of large sums of chocolate and candy. The market is shit, once again, but don’t count it out entirely. I’m still hopeful we can see something eventful before the day ends.

Nuclear stocks like $CCJ and $UEC are notable to the upside. Other than that, maybe $AMZN can go green. It’s a mixed bag, filled with murder holes along the way.

Early going I’m up 64bps, not even close to erasing yesterdays drubbing — but a good start.

Once again markets lifted into an otherwise grim global outlook — marking the 23rd out of 25th Monday higher — for reasons that cannot be explained in any rational terms.

I ripped whatever hair was left from my head attempting to position in this amalgamated hodge podge of refuse. In the morning I took it easy and my losses were easy. As the afternoon darkened, the thoughts inside of my head grew chaotic. I was tricked into an estimable long position, leveraged even. I had visions of the transgendered bulls rampaging cockless throughout Wall Street — placing their dirty hooves into the faces of forlorn bears left strewn, festooned even, all over the concrete bleeding out and dead. For a moment, I envisioned myself as part of this cadre and wanted to fit in. I had an idea about myself and it was to conform, to heel to the powers that be and bet with them — Pax Americana in all of its glory and magnificence.

But then I woke up, as if from a nightmare and sold most of my fucking longs and took on extremely large short positions, recalcitrant and focused on betting against the biotechs and all of their fucking scientists who are suffering with large blood clots inside of their weak hearts and even weaker brains. Uncorking the vials of my wrath, I placed a large bet against the Russell 2000 – because fuck them. Let’s see you try to stop me. Lastly, I entered into a revenge trade long volatility and short bonds — hoping for the embankments to crack and for the blood to flow heavily tomorrow amidst bad news of spiraling borrowing costs for the US government.

Regrettably, I ended the session down a staggering 150bps and I’m embarrassed to say that I was fooled into thinking a certain way when in fact I should’ve been thinking another way. For the month, with just 1 day left, I am +2% — a respectable showing given the tumult. My hopes are for a halted open, limit down, amidst an array of bad news — perhaps the worst news ever.

I feel that I deserve better, not just because I am a good person and should get to enjoy the fruits of my labor; but because I am on the side of God fighting a holy war against the transgendered bulls and all of their inimical ways. With the grace of the Gods, we shall flay them tomorrow, inflicting garish losses onto the balance sheets of the quill pushers and garrulous talking potatoes with guttural punches to their vacated scrotums — raising the black flag over their still and cold bodies with unchastened fury– happy to be there and happy to have won.

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I was hoping, praying even, for a Black Monday but instead got DOWN 90bps thanks in large part to a volatility position gone sour. I’m happy to have done barely anything today because had I chased the open, I’d likely be down 200bps. We have nothing coherent taking place, with oil sharply lower, yields higher, The Dow +350 and the $IWM is flat.

This is the sort of tape that forces you to trade more than you need to. Look at me, down 90bps and taking it like a man. Sure I’m upset about it — but what can I do about it other than protect my assets and wait for a clearer picture?

I have a 16% position in $TZA and a 10% position in $FNGU and two other positions — the rest cash. I, like you, am watching the turmoil in the world — but really more interested in Halloween tomorrow, which is my favorite holiday.

We’ll probably go drive around later on tonight looking at the Hallow’s Eve decor — perhaps then head on over to the gym, steam room, and watch a scary movie that isn’t scary at all and more stupid than anything else.

I haven’t been scared of a movie since my mother brought me to see Nightmare on Elm Street in theaters when I was 7. There is nothing like experiencing the emotion of fear when you’re little and your imagination is at 1,000. You believe in magic, so anything is possible, including but not limited to Freddy Krueger killing you in your sleep.

For the remainder of the session, I will tread carefully and position for tomorrow. Since October is all but over, I might have to switch over to a bullish bias, since crashes heading into Thanksgiving are sacrilege and never happen.

Looking at the situation in Israel, it appears Turkey and Israel are on the verge of cutting relations with one another. The war on Gaza has escalated to a ground invasion and all of the Arab neighbors seem to be quite upset by this. None of then, up until this point, have done anything kinetic to help the Gazans, most likely due to their aversion to taking on the US who looms right off the coast of Israel. I am once again shocked by the blood clamoring by people in America, conjuring up post 9/11 sentiments to justify ethnic cleansing.

For Israel, they probably have to take extraordinary measures in order to ensure the survival of their state. As time goes by, the chasm of technological innovation is shortening between them and their neighbors and the demographics of them versus a billion or two muslims looks very very grim.

For Americans, our interests should be completely focused on an internal agenda. The fucking country is falling apart. The debt is unsustainable and the borders, or lack thereof, has turned many parts of this once great nation into a 3rd world cesspool.

Alas, nothing I say matters and the path we’re taking is the one we’ll stay on. Both parties are pro war and it seems this is their best way to keep the domestic problems off the menu and out of the headlines.

The market is going to fucking crash, not because Americans suck, but because Americans are led by an evil regime who is intentionally leading us into a fucking maelstrom that will undoubtedly lead to the deaths of thousands.

This is what we’re dealing with.

These people do not work for the glory of America. Their agenda is foreign and their interests are to hurt the populous and the elections can never do anything to remedy this deeply embedded cancer.

Have a pleasant weekend.

Before we make predictions, let’s review.

Stocks are down 15% over the past 3 months.

Gold is +3.15%

Oil is +10%

$BTC is +15%

$TLT is -15%

$STNG is +33%

$TZA is +68%

Are we clear with the present trends? Sometimes we lose focus and fight old battles whilst not adapting to the current conditions. The salient we are in now is higher rates, lower stocks spearheaded by small caps, higher oil, higher tanker rates, higher gold and Bitcoin due to capital flight and desire for safe havens.

The simple fact of the matter is, there are only a few areas of the market that have worked since July and to believe this new trend is going to change is merely guesswork. The most likely course is the one we’re currently navigating.

The geopolitical situation is at the most severe and dangerous point in many generations — and that’s not hyperbole. We are fighting a full proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, a new front has opened in Israel, and China looms in a not too distant corner with alleged designs on Taiwan. These wars could’ve all been avoided. Anyone paying attention sees the incompetence of diplomats from the west and their craven desire to establish a “rules based order.” We will all pay for their sins.

Meanwhile, markets continue to price in uncertainty and constriction of money supply caused by spiraling higher rates.

For the session, The Fly closed at session highs of +43bps, in flawless trading — long volatility, short small caps, long FANG stocks, long oil, long gold, long tankers and long defense stocks with a 50% cash position. My intention is to wade into the next flush out with considerable weight to the long side. We are fast approaching a mean reversion ebbing point that will lead to a ferocious upside rally. This is an important reality in all bear markets and if you’re not nimble with your positions — you’ll get hammered short into a 1,000 point NASDAQ rally.

For the week ahead, I foresee a cataclysmic decline followed by a sharp upside reversal. The NASDAQ has been HIGHER in 15 of the past 16 Mondays, an unusually repetitious trend that is crying aloud to be faded — trapping foolish bulls into yet another trap to be beaten upon the rack until all of their bones are crushed into dust and their heads concaved by rampaging bears.

The Nasdaq is up, but the Russell is sharply lower. The semis are higher, but the biotechs and banks have plunged to hell. The price of oil is up, yet oil stocks are flat.

All stocks are down 0.6% today and upside breadth is an abysmal 38%.

Can you say “crash the fucking close”?

Some days, like today, you just have to sit and watch. It’s tempting to want to be the hero for your family, head out there into the market jungles and slew a Tiger with your bare hands. Odds are, said bobcat will bite your fucking arms clean off your body.

This isn’t a market for lesser men. Those of you with trouble trading in normal tapes should steer the fuck clear of this one.

I’m exactly flat for the session, saved by my $AMZN and $VALE positions. I am only in $TMV now, betting on higher rates. I’ll likely increase my market exposure into the late afternoon, but I have no sense of urgency. The way I see it: I did my job, up more than 1% in a week that brought ruins to the plebeian class. Stocks are down 7.5% for October and I’m +2.7%. While it’s true that my bearishness might’ve encouraged me to bet with more vigor to the downside and achieve higher returns, I instead decided to take low risk excursions for all of the reasons you see the market being so damned tricky on a day to day basis.

It was nearly a guaranteed trade, one that I felt comfortable enough to share with the unwashed reader class of investor. Amazon smashed earnings and we were confident heading into quarterly results because there wasn’t a chance Microsoft, who beat yesterday, was going to take market sure from AWS. On top of that, we see the looters RAMPAGING across America — grabbing wares from Macy’s, Nordstrom, Gucci and whoever else keeps their doors open for business.

This is America — a land of grift and thievery, criminal elements operating outside the reach of the law — forcing citizenry to accumulate fire arms to one day, possibly, shoot potential looters attempting to foray into their garages.

I closed the session +28bps in highly responsible, highly professional trading. When I use the term “professional” — I do so with purpose, as I possess a steep history of success in both trading and investing — making public market calls since 2007. Some of my lesser adversaries like to believe this isn’t so — mainly because it’s fun to pretend and to believe in the greatness of others, at least for those insecure in their own world standing, is to admit to being second fiddle.

GOOD SIRS —

You are all second fiddle when it comes to me and trading. None of you can compare, as I am quite literally the single best trader in America today.

Returns since 2021

Into tomorrow, I am incredibly downcast on this market and intend to sell any rips. The great storm is upon us and not even the looters will escape its wrath. I am short the Russell 2000 and long volatility, crossed against a pastiche of hand curated longs and 25% cash. Year to date, my returns stand at an impressive +41% — and +1,100% since 2021 — none of which was achieved through wanton risk or degeneracy — all attained with moderate sized equity positions alone sand options, futures, and all of the other low brow tools the gambler class of investor gravitates towards as a ploy to make up for their lack of skill.

I hate the market but I do believe there is an opportunity to play the Amazon earnings after the close. The premise goes as follows:

Microsoft already reported their earnings and their server business was strong. It would be shocking to learn the catamites at Mr. Softee were taking share from Amazon’s AWS.

The Mall is more than dead. Amazon continues to reduce the necessity for brick and mortar stores. In the future, we’ll live in cubes and rarely if ever remain in the real world, instead opting for the meta verse, whereby Amazon will deliver goods to us there too.

Finally, I am bullish on looting. Following the George Floyd riots of 2020, America made it a policy to never prosecute looting or looters out of fears of being called racist. Because of this, the worst elements of black society regale these new dictates as license to steal and make it a point to do so with rapacious fervor. The stores call it shrinkage and said shrinkage is up more than 100% since then and this trend seems to be growing in volume and audacity. These goods are not tossed into sewers after acquired, but instead sold on Amazon and Ebay via 3rd party sales. People with established Amazon accounts connect with the looters and make then their vendors, enjoying the margins and life in general — offering wares to Americans at slightly less than retail prices.

Everybody wins but of course the malls, integrity — and law and order. Who needs to be bothered with such things in a latter stages of Pax Americana?

Semis are higher, but oils are lower. Small caps up, but large caps are down. Tech had been higher, but now sliding lower. Trying to properly understand what exactly to buy or sell here is a bit of a puzzle so I opted to head on over to cash and cower in the corner until the market sorts itself out.

For every large green candle there is a red one to follow. This isn’t a market for a gentleman, but instead meant for swashbuckling caitiffs.

I will not demean or lower myself by playing in this sandbox and opt out until further notice, down 10bps for the session.