When Will Things Go Back to Normal?

Rates are collapsing, presently at 1.55% — a real harbinger of doom.

Gold is soaring.

Oil and copper #COLLAPSE.

An infectious disease is rampaging throughout Asia, forcing businesses to close the fuck down — people are sloppily falling in the streets iced cold dead. The inner doom in me wants to short things and preside over the apocalypse, but my brain keeps getting in the way. The virus stocks are emotional trading tools, not serious. The only real money to be made here is effectively timing the bottom in stocks like LK. Problem is, no one knows when this virus will ebb. We have a runaway train off the tracks and trading around it is dangerous.

As such, in my trading account, I am 100% cash now. I might purchase a few things later, or maybe even short sell something. But for now, I really don’t have a fucking clue what happens next.

All I see are bad headlines. When I see that, I am pre-programmed through years of dealing with crisis, to buy said dips. That is the play, believe me. I just haven’t figured out when things might start getting back to normal again.

Long trip and I’ll need to head back soon. Emotionally taxing and I can honestly say trading was a fantastic distraction, especially when it entails winning so much. I often find my best trades to be done when traveling, probably because I’m not baby-sitting them and I let narratives play out longer.

I see futures are sharply lower and that’s supposed to mean something — because a fucking pandemic is on the loose. I had a guy sitting next to me coughing his brains out and I wanted to tare his head off for doing it.

These are the headlines I’m watching now.

3 Japanese citizens evacuated from Wuhan have coronavirus
China reports over 7,000 cases of Wuhan coronavirus cases, including 170 deaths
Student starts petition to cancel classes at Arizona State University over coronavirus fears
White House announces creation of coronavirus Task Force
Carriers of the Wuhan coronavirus face criminal charges if they knowingly infect others in Hubei
Ikea closes ALL stores in mainland China
Tesla Model 3 production delayed in Shanghai because of coronavirus outbreak

So this is what I’m thinking. Epidemics are very low probability plays. The idea that this flu is going to kill millions is an extremely low probability. However, in the interim, people are fucking panicking. I know the virus stocks look like interesting trading vehicles, but they might be a little to hot to pick up right now, even though they’ve fallen sharply the past two days. They can offer incredible intra-day returns, given the right horrible news and all that — but logically the best play here is resumption of normalcy.

Meaning, buy great stocks that fall on a disruption in their business — due to the virus.

More tomorrow.

I don’t want to apply any critical thinking into the reasons for this surge. I will simply ignore any internal monologue I might have and simply accept the fact that Bitcoins are up nearly 30% the past month.

Maybe there is a reason. I don’t care at all to know about it. I am not buying shitcoins, or even thinking about it — only marveling at the fact it is still here.

The Coronavirus has now surpassed SARS and markets have already priced in forgetting about it. I sold the lot of my last virus stocks yesterday and went long three ordinary stocks, holding 85% cash. I am tempted to buy more, but also bear in mind my trading account is roughly ~25% of my overall assets, which are invested fully into a long only portfolio, quantitatively. In other words, while I am away from home and in NYC, I will probably will do nothing.

I depart tonight for NC.

I’d rather not make any predictions, other than to say things are still very fluid and complacency is something the market is comfortable with. Being defensive or even taking long positions in virus stocks is mostly viewed as macabre amongst traders, who only deem other investors fit to purchase shares of TGT into any and all scenarios. Truth is, TGT has been a great investment the past year, but it’s a very stupid existence and if my world collapsed into choosing between owning TGT or doing nothing at all — I’d choose the latter.

The puzzle is the only part of this game that I deem to be worthwhile. Separate from it is a world of grifters and mountebanks — stubborn and obstinate hard headed people with inferiority complexes laying waste across the internets.

Oh an yeah, shitcoins are higher today.

Last night in the after-hours my virus stocks jumped out of their pants and raped all of the shorts who bet against me. Then later in the evening futures exploded higher and I knew the virus run would end, at least for now. These companies were never any good and that’s important to remember when wondering if you should hold them into downward prices. The answer is always NO.

Even though these stocks are all down today, my gains were so terrific, so fantastic, I still ended up booking gains.

In what perhaps could be my final sojourn into pandemic speculations, I booked the following.

sold $ZLAB – wash
($BCRX -3.8%)
($CDTX -2.3%)
$AEMD +14%
$LLIT +15.5%

My cash position for my trading account is 100%. Between yesterday and today, here is the final tally.

NNVC +32%
NNVC +319%
CODX +28%
CODX +61.4%
VIR +25.9%
INO +50%
AHPI +48%
NVAX +11%
NVAX +28.9%
APT +29.3%
LAKE +17.5%
LAKE +25.2%
ZLAB – wash
(BCRX -3.8%)
(CDTX -2.3%)
AEMD +14%
LLIT +15.5%

You are now within the dominion of “The Fly” where the wins pile up and even the losses are wins. When people bet against him, they end up bankrupted and in the streets raped. Nothing can stop me, especially not the lowly reader class heckling him on Twitter and in the comments section. When the going gets tough, Le Fly drives gravity hammers through the heads of his enemies.

Into the teeth of the apocalypse, masterfully, Le Fly was 70% positioned into virus stocks. I sold them all, save 1, this morning. Here are the results.

NNVC +32%
NNVC +319%
CODX +28%
CODX +61.4%
VIR +25.9%
INO +50%
AHPI +48%
NVAX +11%
NVAX +28.9%
APT +29.3%
LAKE +17.5%
LAKE +25.2%

That’s not a typo, pal. See some of you pretend to yourselves that you’re equipped for all markets. But in reality, when the chips are down and the markets dive down 500 — you get BOGGED the fuck out because you’re nothing but a bull market catamite.

“The Fly” reigns supreme, percentage gains off the charts. Men of quality and substance will understand what I just did was nothing short of staggering. To all those who followed me into the pits of hell, you’re welcomed. To everyone else, better luck next time.

95% cash — counting my wins.

If you’ve been reading me the past week you know that I’ve been first to this pandemic trade, not because I’m a scientist and know the deadly pathogens released into China, but because I’m keenly aware of human behavior and saw the Chinese response to an otherwise small amount of infections as disproportionate.

No need to droll on about it, at this point. Either you’re in these virus trades or not. If there are trades to be had, believe me I’ll find them first in.

Tomorrow markets will plunge at the open. All of the hallmarks of risk off are present. Whether it bounces off the lows or sinks further is anyone’s guess. One thing is for certain, virus stocks will be in play. Only 30% of my followers on twitter have bought some. I suspect the news will get worse before it gets better. This is the quintessential black swan event that you read about in text books. This is when you take outsized risk for a chance at scoring huge gains.

As such, my trading account is 70% long virus stocks, which stand to make me a small fortune tomorrow morning. In the off chance they open lower, I’ll sell. If they explode higher, I’ll likely sell and buy back later. Since I’m up so much, there are very few scenarios where I won’t sell. But there are some names that are still very cheap and can run higher.

Not pitching here, but I am. If you want access to me, you’ll need to join Exodus. A man of my importance and stature clearly can’t be seen doling out valuable trade I info to the canaille here without a fee.

Clearly that would be stupid.

Rest well knowing The Fly won again.

A citizen from Wuhan reaches out to Youtube to plead for public awareness over the dire circumstances in Wuhan, describing China’s response as fucking “bullshit.”

Watch.

Claims 10 nurses are seeing 100 patients per day and all they do is watch people die.

Listen.

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding is a double Phd epidemiologist from Harvard, achieved at youngest age ever at the University at 23, took to twitter to alarm people about the virility of the Wuhan virus.

His main concern is the virility of the virus, stating it’s 8x more contagious than SARs. Elsewhere on Twitter are numerous truck drivers, moron stockbrokers, and a slew of paralegals, and trash men who have become arm-chair scientists — disputing Dr. Eric’s assertions. Instead of concern, these newly minted scientists are telling people to “not worry about it” because “it’s more nothing.” There is even a FUCKHEAD Buzzzzzzfeed bloggers who is combing thru all Tweets that are allegedly disseminating false info about the virus in an attempt to claim moral superiority over then — because she is in possession of the truth — in spite of her 2.8GPA in liberal arts.

His credentials.

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (Eric Ding) is a health economist, epidemiologist, and nutrition scientist at the Harvard Chan School of Public Health, and an expert advisor to the World Health Organization.

He graduated from The Johns Hopkins University with Honors in Public Health and Phi Beta Kappa. He then completed his dual doctorate in epidemiology and doctorate in nutrition, as the youngest graduate to earn double-PhDs at age 23 from Harvard

Now for his warnings.

UPDATE: Transmission of #coronoavirus estimated at 2.6 by another research group (lower than the 3.8 initial reports). But 2.6 is still extremely bad —each infected person will infect 2.6 others. Even the authors admit #CoronaOutbreak containment will be very difficult. Thread:

2: “This implies that control measures need to block well over 60% of transmission to be effective in controlling the outbreak. Whether transmission is continuing at the same rate currently depends on the effectiveness of current control measures implemented in China…

3: “In the absence of antiviral drugs or vaccines, control relies upon the prompt detection and isolation of symptomatic cases. It is unclear at the current time whether this outbreak can be contained within China”.

4: Even the author of the new 2.6 report admits that we need to plan for chance that “CONTAINMENT OF THIS EPIDEMIC ISN’T POSSIBLE”. Hence I’m not being uniquely distressed about this — the public health concern is very real!!

5: The 2.6’s author agrees it’s super dangerous and could infect without symptoms: “An epidemic with an R0 of 2.5 could still infect between 60% and 90% of the population, depending on contact patterns. Not all might be symptomatic.”

6: How long ago did the #coronoavirus emerge and start spreading? “the Adam (or Eve) virus from which all others are descended first appeared no earlier than Oct. 30, 2019, and no later than Nov. 29.” Basically 1.5-2.5 months of unconfined proliferation.

5) This coronavirus though, it’s R0 attack rate of 2.5 or 3.8 (still prelim) is super high. Much more people fly now than in 2003 SARS. While measles has higher R0, it has a vaccine ?. Nobody has immunity to this new virus. Good R0 explainer:

4) I have published a lot of studies, including in NEJM, JAMA, Lancet, as someone who has worked in academia for years. And I have been a whistleblower against big pharma in JAMA. I have never ever posted about end of world stuff and don’t ever intend to.

14/ Let’s pretend the 3.8 estimate is too high (there’s unpublished estimates of 2.5). even if this virus’s R0=2.5, that’s still 2x higher than seasonal flu’s 1.28 (ref above), and higher than 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic of 1.80 that killed millions. So 2.8 is still super bad folks

Some folks think I’m trying to incite fear. I’m not trying—I’m a scientist. This #coronavirus #WuhanCoronovirus is serious. Over 50 million people are quarantined + case counts will go up much more. Predict @WHO will declare emergency. Let’s hope for the best, prepared for worst.

15) My response to some people who think I’m trying to stoke fear… I’m a Harvard trained scientist with a doctorate in epidemiology (and the youngest dual doctoral grad from Harvard SPH)

China expanded their quarantine to 10 cities, totaling 56 million people. They’re likely doing this to reduce the virility of the virus. President Xi, in a surprising statement called the situation ‘grave.’

Breaking news: Chinese President Xi warns of "accelerating spread" of Wuhan coronavirus and "grave" public health situation https://t.co/5ultqE5rzY

— The Washington Post (@washingtonpost) January 25, 2020

Finally…

That's wonderful, but did the Chinese government actually help create and spread the virus? https://t.co/1Z20gJkvrG https://t.co/5cLsBMwU5U

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 25, 2020

Full disclosure: I am a Merchant of Death, presently long the following virus related stocks: AHPI, LAKE, NNVC, APT, INO, VIR, ZLAB, NVAX, LLIT, CODX.

People keep asking me if I’m shorting stocks because I keep posting news about the Corona Virus. Umm, no, I would never presume a virus could rock markets for more than a few days and even if it did — why would I sell short when I could make so much more in virus stocks?

Let me explain to you the type of person that I am.

I bought NNVC at $3.67 two days ago and still hold it, steadfastly. Do you know why I do this? TO BANK FUCKING COIN you faggots. While you sit there buying RAW COMMODITIES into the teeth of a burgeoning pandemic, I’m buying an ARRAY of stocks gapping the fuck higher into the sky and then the moon.

That’s who I am, pal.

Inside of the hallowed halls of Exodus, we are simply scouring the market by company profile, cross referencing with volume and price movement and riding the wave. Whether this ends well for me or not is immaterial. What’s important here is that I am a player — a man during this place and time who is willing to place his balls onto the table and speed chop carrots.

Also, my Quant is higher nearly 7% this month, spearheaded by a 2% gain today thanks to EHTH.