18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,424 Blog Posts


Good evening lads.

Now that you’ve had time to think about your sins, I hope you have come to accept the fact that there isn’t a plan, no one is coming to save you, and stocks are going back to and much deeper than the annual lows.

2022 will preside over the markets on par with 2008, twin towers of loss looming ominously above all other years.

We are in September after all and it’s hunting season and the prey is you.

I do these blogs as a warning, a charity, to keep my conscience clean. I owe you at least that, being such loyal and devoted readers after all of these years.

We will get a break in the selling, which will be intercepted by the mean reversion algorithms of Stocklabs. Other than that, expect liquidation of increasing ferocity into the winter, into the dark cold.

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The Dow lost 1,276 and the NASDAQ nearly 700 and yet the bools have still not learned their lessons. This wasn’t a profitable session for me with wallet, but with spirit. I quite enjoyed seeing row upon row upon row of bulls being mowed down, trampled over into the dirt from whence they came.

There was something that threw me off, however — bonds rose. It would seem implausible to me that markets could’ve already priced in all the Fed hikes. Not a chance.

Larry Summer just got finished tweeting he’d go 100bps hike on the next meeting. I think it’s fair to say 8% CPI is the new 2%. Ergo, rates are going, eventually, to 8%.

I traded down 98bps for the session, mostly cash now with some small bets both long and short. Although I had hoped for a session like this and I most certainly also warned you we could get one, I did not take a very bearish position because it was on par with gambling. “The Fly” doesn’t gamble.

We should expect further downside tomorrow, which might lead to a Stocklabs oversold signal soon.

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Just yesterday the fanciful bulls told you we were in a new bull market. Putin was on the run and Zelensky had bountiful levels of cocaine to see him through the entire war.

Today those same people are cocaineless shells of who they once were. The NASDAQ is plunging lower with speed, off by 400, the Dow down by 860.

Now you must be thinking “Gee fly how did you manage to do it Fly? Tell us your secrets?”

I’m actually DOWN 1% today and in an full cash position. I was positioned wrongly into these numbers. I blame COVID. I had too many high risk longs and my shorts weren’t big enough. After I sold my longs I was down 75bps. I closed out my shorts because -75bps was enough for me and didn’t want to press shorts into an opening plunge. I then took two positions on the long side, both failed. And here I am now.

I’m not in a rush to gamble in this market again and can easily accept -1% on an otherwise apocalyptic day. As a younger trader, I’d probably would’ve traded 100 times today in an attempt to “get back to even”, but it’s only my money and I simply don’t give a fuck.

Into the late afternoon, I’ll likely position light in both longs and shorts.


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I did attempt to warn you.

Headline at 8.3% v/s 8.1% expected, 8.5% prior
Core at 6.3% v/s 6.1% expected, 5.9% prior

Now it’s too late and the NASDAQ is down 300. The euro and yen are straight in the shitter, yields are soaring, and equities are cascading without brakes.

We had been priced for perfection. Now we are pricing for sustained inflation over 8%. The notion of stopping rate hikes at 4% is absurd. We’re really gonna have to go all the way.



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Will the CPI Numbers Come in Hot?

Of course they will you dumb son of a bitch.

Raw commodities, 1 mo returns

That’s a mean of 3.55% over 1 month. Meanwhile you cunts thought inflation was abating and yet here we are FUCKED in cotton, corn, uranium, coffee, nickel, soy boyyyyyy.

Numbers come in hot, yields take off and your dicks get guillotined right the fuck off. If by chance numbers are light, they’re rigged. If in line, fade any bump. Basically hope for rigged and then deal with inflation in real life whilst the govt tells you that shit doesn’t exist.


You dumb cunts.

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Let me just say, the new House of Dragons appears to be complete shit. I tried to give it a chance, but 4 eps deep it continues to malign the best character (psycho brother) whilst at the same time attempting to make us give a fuck about the little girl who would be queen. Complete rubbish.

I hedged the close, +77bps for the day, trading with COVID and all. I’d say I’m feeeeeeeling 80% better, but still harangued by a feeling of sloth and intermittent fevers.

Tomorrow is the CPI print and it’s gonna come in HOT AS FUCK. Do not be surprised to see the NASDAQ down 500 on a fucked number.

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Missed a Nice Collapse During My Slumber

I’ve been told “you’re very particular about what you like, from my prisoner guard outside the door inside of my house — in reply to what I like to eat and drink now that I don’t have a sense of smell nor taste.

I have recently awoken from my loooooong slumber, because I prefer to sleep with COVID rather than not. I missed a scary drop; but now we’re back.

Breadth is very strong amidst the mega and tera cap stocks, but appreciably weaker amidst smaller. Nevertheless I’m not stupid and cannot be fooled. I shall not bet against the all mighty stocks so early in the Ukrainian victory. There is much yet to be enjoyed and celebrated, as Pax American is extended for another 100 yrs or so.

Biotech appears strong and Apple, Amzn and the usuals. Energy is weak, but not as weak as I thought. AG stocks are getting their faces ripped off as if all of Ukraine has been freed and Ukraine was about to take Russian grain fields.

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Gap n Fade or Go?

Mornings are always tricky. It’s where you can grab big moves. Are those early red candles tricks that should go bought or are those green candles gifts to be faded?

I really don’t give a shit and stick to a game plan: sell the fucking mornings.

I’m 95% cash, +75bps. I only hold BTU now out of pure sentimentality, pining for the days when coal was clean and the miners in W Virginia ruled America.

I’ll probably add a few positions soon and wait to see if the gains stick.

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Futures Open Green as Ukraine Turns Black

Good evening gents.

In retaliation for getting routed out from Kharkiv oblast, the Russians attacked critical infrastructure and plunged many parts of Ukraine into darkness. This might seem spiteful and petty, but from what I hear there is a tactical reason for this.

It seems the Russian airforce is unable to interdict troop movements on the ground and do not possess the technology to detect large columns of metal objects on the ground. Blame the Slavic brain for these shortcomings. It’s also believed that the real Ukrainian offensive is going to happen in the direction of  Mariupol and the UKR military is using rail to transport equipment. Ergo, taking out the power in Ukraine is an effort by the Russians to buy time to build up fortifications.

The perception on the ground now is as follows.

Russia is no match for the GLOBOHOMO.

Ukraine meat muppets are excellent warriors and will make a find addition to NATO once Russia is defeated.

A Russian defeat means Putin in trouble and this is bearish for energy prices.

Europe will make it.

NASDAQ FUTS are +56 and the western liberals are dancing in their burlap shoes at the sight of dead Russian soliders.

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Major Shift in the Ukraine War in Favor of NATO — What is Means for Stocks

Unfortunately the people charged with holding the front lines for Russia are retards and melted away at the first sight of 15,000 men. The Ukrainian NATO-FAG forces are rummaging throughout the Russian countryside now — exchanging time for space and having a grande time of it posting their terrific results on Tik Tok. The “NAFO” brigades on Twitter are most elated and have their eyes set on Crimea next, maybe even Belgorod. Meanwhile Putin is busy opening a new martial arts studio in Moscow and the general command offered little excuse for their rout — other than to suggest they’re merely shifting forces around.

In actuality, the Russian rout spells disaster for any citizen who cooperated with them under occupied Russian control. Those people are now racing to leave before the Ukrainians get a hold of them and tape them to a pole for 72 hrs.

The Ukrainian offensive was well known for months in the making and yet Russia took zero steps to prevent this sort of egregious loss of space. I suppose we could give credit to NATO planners for a brilliant stratagem, just as much as we can malign the Russians for not knowing how to hold down clay.

Thus far, there has been little loss of life on the Russian side, although they have left equipment behind. In what seemed impossible just a week ago is now happening and the momentum has shifted to the gallant NATO brigades out of Kiev — steaming every so fastidiously towards their next destination.

I’m still afflicted with the COVID-19, so my analysis might be somewhat obtuse or useless. But, given the situation on the ground — you should expect markets to ROAR higher and oil/gas to drop. Markets are crazy enough to start pricing in the possibility of Putin being taken out in Russia. I only say this because his most ardent sycophants are now BESIDES themselves with grief and anguish — how a tiny backwater country and former vassal of Russia is seemingly taking Mother Russia to the woodshed and having his way with her. These people have always said the plan to invade Ukraine with so few men was always a retarded one and permitting Kiev to host world leaders whenever it wanted and transfer of weapons without obstacle was a recipe for defeat.

Hopefully this dreadful war can soon come to an end and Zelensky can tackle the real problems facing Kiev: legalizing gay marriage.

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