18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,615 Blog Posts

TRUMP DOUBLES DOWN ON FED SALT: The Dow Would Be 10,000 Points Higher Without Them

This is the craziest shit any President has ever said about markets, ever.

Trump said it months ago and now he said it again, apparently in an interview to be aired on ABC this weekend.

The Dow would be TEN THOUSAND POINTS HIGHER, had it not been for the Fed meddling.

The president predicted that GDP would be 1.5 percentage points higher had Powell and his fellow central bankers not enacted rate increases and “quantitative tightening.” In addition, he said the stock market would be at least 10,000 points higher, presumably a reference to the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which was at 26,106 heading into Friday trading.

Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell, whom he named to the post in early 2018, and has said openly that he believes the Fed should be cutting interest rates. Previous presidents have taken on Fed chairs before, but rarely in such a public fashion.

“He’s my pick and I disagree with him entirely,” Trump said. “As you know, it’s independent. … But I’m not happy with what he’s done.”

That’s 40% for those counting at home, or $18 trillion in wealth creation.

The fuck out of here.

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GET IN HERE: This is How You Play This Tape

Enough of your nonsense. I’ve entertained it for too long. The sky is falling now — midnight on Wall Street. AVGO missed earnings, thanks to China. Now you have 3 major semis (NVDA, INTC, AVGO) in the penalty box.

Do I have your attention?

Broadcom leads a plunge in chip stocks after the chipmaker missed revenue expectations and lowered guidance.

Broadcom’s revenue for the fiscal second quarter came in at $5.52 billion vs. expectations of $5.68 billion.

The chipmaker also said it now expects $22.60 billion in revenue for fiscal 2019, well bellow the $24.31 billion seen by analysts

The 10yr is now at 2.06% and heading lower. The way you play this tape is accordingly:

Heavy cash, upwards of 30%
Long bonds, via TLT or TMF for leverage
Gold, via JNUG, GDX, or JNUG
Value stocks and REITs, because the money will scramble for yield with rates dropping
Hedges via inverses for TRADES only

When the market collapsed in late 2018, stocks like TR and PG went higher. Gold is on the cusp of a 7 year breakout to the upside, and most of you fuckers are still trying to buy SOXL. But what if the summer truly brings doldrums and what if we retested the January lows? The fundamentals seem to be the same, if not worse. The complacency is outrageously belligerent, with financial advisors sucking each other’s dicks for jobs well done. They haven’t done anything but sit in their chairs and received the gifts bestowed down from the Fed.

If the Morgan Stanley indicator is of any use, we should be trading defensively now. Plus anyway, it’s a Friday and we all know markets do not bottom on fucking Fridays.

Happy trading — see you inside Exodus.

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Morgan Stanley’s Proprietary Economic Indicator Just Registered a RECORD COLLAPSE

It’s over fucked faces. Finally, we can begin to make arrangements for the funeral.

The Morgan Stanley Business Conditions Index fell by 32 points in June, to a level of 13 from a level of 45 in May. This drop is the largest one-month decline on record.

“The decline shows a sharp deterioration in sentiment this month that was broad-based across sectors,” economist Ellen Zentner said in a note to clients on Thursday.

Every subindex of the Business Conditions Composite fell in June, expect for the credit condition category, which “is consistent with the recent easing in broad financial conditions,” Zentner said.

What does it all mean? It means this.

“The decline shows a sharp deterioration in sentiment this month that was broad-based across sectors,? economist Ellen Zentner said in a note to clients. “Fundamental indicators point to a broad softening of activity, but analysts did not widely attribute the weakening to trade policy.”

Chart please? Coming right up. Keep your pants on.


After the bell, chip giant AVGO shit the bed. The stock is being brutalized in an after hours session from hell.

Nasdaq futures are -25.

Sleep tight.

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We are looking at a potential 7 year consolidation breaking out. I own some NUGT and will buy more on dips. But I’m not expecting any. If you’re ignoring this move, then you are willingly ignoring a sector with extreme upside. Aren’t you aware that gold stocks are valued for zero growth in the gold price — now stuck at 1.5x sales?

Did you know during the halcyon days of when gold was relevant, the gold miners traded at 5-7x?

You’d be wise to play gold each and every time it looks to be breaking out. Because one of these days it will and you’ll blow your brains out for missing out on such an opportunity.

Markets went up. War with Iran is imminent. Nothing can stop stocks. Yada, yada, yada.

I bought a bunch of stuff today, one based off the IPO FVRR today and several other growth and old man plays. I am positioned for a low rate environ. If you want to see, you’re just gonna have to join the league of gentlemen inside Exodus.

Good day.

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Markets Surge!

Is it any surprise to see stocks melting higher, one day removed from what looked like a possible deterioration? Granted, it was tepid, but oil was really weak. But now it’s not, thanks to the blessed attack in the Straights of Hormuz.

As a pleb in this world, you are permitted several chances at attaining a sizable fortune. Right now, in this very instance, you are being granted permission to print your own money. You might not realize it and you might believe there are dark forces lining up against you. But rest assured, this is as easy as it gets.

What to buy now?

How about highly leveraged balance sheets who benefit from lower rates? Can any of you asspunchers think of one or two? I can.

Also, considering rates are going lower and growth is higher, it makes sense to believe gold will continue higher. Even if you’re not a gold bug, you should have some exposure.

Growth names do not interest me here, because it’s the summer and because value has some catching up to do. I’m down to 25% cash, after purchasing a few names today. I did sell FAS which I bought before the close yesterday for an overnight hold. There are canaries in the coal mine that you can track to ensure this rally is legit. One of which is oil, another HYG, another highly leveraged names like GE.

I’ll have more later — but for now, trade well and fuck off.

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Howard Marks Doesn’t Believe

Billionaire investor and Co-Chair of Oaktree Capital, Howard Marks, doesn’t believe in the magic fairy dust the Fed has sprinkled on the market and very evilly is trying to cast a pall, planting seeds into the minds of investors with his bearish rhetoric and propaganda.

In a letter to Oaktree clients, Marks carried on, rather monotonously, regarding the present state of affairs and summarized his skepticism in a few succinct bullet points.

Today we’re not hearing much about historic valuations being irrelevant, as they’re not terribly high.
Instead, what we’re told is different this time is the relevance of restrictions on future economic and market performance:

There doesn’t have to be a recession.
Continuous quantitative easing can lead to permanent prosperity.
Federal deficits can grow substantially larger without becoming problematic.
National debt isn’t worrisome.
We can have economic strength without inflation.
Interest rates can remain “lower for longer.”
The inverted yield curve needn’t have negative implications.
Companies and stocks can thrive even in the absence of profits.
Growth investing can continue to outperform value investing in perpetuity.

There’s all sorts of gems in this thing, such as:

The avoidable recession – The questions I get most often these days are “Is the U.S. heading for a recession?” and “When will it start?” My answer to the first is a simple “yes.”


And who knows exactly how QE works? Last week, at a conference I attended, a participant suggested that under Modern Monetary Theory (see more below), the Treasury could issue a potentially unlimited amount of debt, and if third-party buyers failed to take it up, the Fed could buy it under QE. Does this seem reasonable? If the Fed credits banks with reserves, the banks lend a multiple of those reserves, and the borrowers use the loan proceeds to make purchases or investments, does the process really inject money into the economy, or is it mostly a matter of bookkeeping? Or are they one and the same? Of course, this question is relevant to all nations with fiat currencies.

This is beautiful.

We keep an eye out for the widespread belief that “this time it’s different” because we want to know if markets are being lifted by bullishness, optimism, risk tolerance and low levels of skepticism. Everything else being equal, these things result in asset prices that are high relative to intrinsic values, and their presence exposes us to the risk that they’ll abate, taking asset prices down with them.

Read the whole thing in the link above. Very SAFU reading.

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Oil Surges on Tanker Attack; Futures Soft

Futures were sharply lower last night and then reversed and fucking soared this morning after news of a wonderful tanker attack in the Gulf of Oman.

Just wonderful wonderful news, when you can both have oil prices climb and the military pushed into action. We must defend democracy, whenever the chance presents itself.

Tankers the Front Altair and the Kokuka Courageous have sustained significant fire damage and its crews have been evacuated, according to shipping agents.

U.S. Naval ships in the area are “rendering assistance” after forces in the region received two separate distress calls, according to U.S. officials.

The cause of the fire remains unclear, but has sparked fears of attack and comes just weeks after alleged ship sabotage in the region.

Nasdaq futures are off 10 and US 10yr bonds are down 1.5bps to 2.112%. My best guess is markets will ignore oil today, as it did on the downside yesterday, and markets will trade lower. We shall see.

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It’s Over: TheStreet.Com Dead After 20 Years of Disappointment

Love or hate him, Jim Cramer always lamented the first day surge in his company’s stock in 1999, TheStreet.com — because he said it was going to hurt all of the people who bought it that day. It pained him to see it, and people should know that he’s on record for being a generally good and empathetic person regarding the failure of TST.

At the peak, TheStreet.com was valued at $1.7b. Today it was bought out for $16 million.

TheStreet, the stock market news website co-founded by Jim Cramer, agreed to be acquired by TheMaven Inc., a Seattle-based digital media company, for $16.5 million in cash, the site announced on Wednesday morning.

It’s unclear if Cramer, who has become a household name hosting “Mad Money” on CNBC for more than a decade, will remain involved with the site. When reached for comment, TheStreet CEO and CFO Eric Lundberg said “it’s TBD,” or to be determined, if Cramer will stay connected to the site in any official capacity.

The deal will pay between $6.19 and $6.47 per share to TheStreet shareholders, representing about a 9% to 14% premium on where the company closed on Tuesday. The buyout boosted the site’s shares nearly 7% in early trading on Wednesday, hitting $6.06 per share.

What the fuck happened and how did it go wrong?

I know people who’ve written for TST and I know their business model and can tell you with certainty that mismanagement is the prime driver behind their failure. I mean, Cramer was the first finance blogger, who had a main stream media profile and subscription based product. Why did they stop innovating? Why did they hire no-name, zero talent, writers and pay them $3k per mo for a handful of shitty articles? Much of the main stream finance is retarded in this regard, and it’s ironic since they’re supposed to know business and the pitfalls that publicly traded companies make.

iBankCoin does a fraction of what TST produces in revenues, yet nets way more. They do nothing but bleed.

Why didn’t TST build up another cult-like personality aside from Cramer and to a degree Rev Shark? Why didn’t TST make some real acquisitions? Why on earth did they rely upon ads to pay their bills? AND WHY ON GOD’S GREEN EARTH DOES THE STREET DOT BOMB HAVE 800 EMPLOYEES?

Zerohedge is worth more and does more traffic than TST and has like 2. Cramer and two programmers could’ve ran TST themselves and produced incredible value for shareholders. Instead, TST, and this is well know for those in Fintech, was a fucking stuffed pig that everyone took a bite from. It was wasted and cast out to die by Cramer and principle shareholders and now it has been sold at a bankrupt rate and everyone who believed and whoever had faith in the brand coming back, for leadership turning things around, have been blown the fuck out from here until eternity — gone.

TST failed because they didn’t care about shareholders and only wanted to milk it until it was finally dead.

RIP retards.

ADDING INSULT TO INJURY: The Maven is a piece of shit website, an amalgamation of subpar writers and content, which is also PUBLICLY TRADED, illiquid, on the OTC — selling for 42 cents per share.

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In my last post I attempted to alert you to some things and now I will rock you back to sleep. With WTI down 4%, we have every reason to be down 100 NASDAQS, but we aren’t. Breadth is solid at 46%. SAAS stocks are strong, etc.

Point being, we’re not going to crash yet. Put your cocks back in your socks — nothing is getting fucked just yet. Rest assured, we will do all of the fucking, and much more — but not yet.

For now, ease into some pair trades, act animalistic amongst bulls and pretend to let them believe you’re one of them. When the time is right, we will slay them in their sleep and then wear their skins as our outer garments.

Take it easy and enjoy the show.


My last 15 closed trades. You do the math.

SWCH -0.5%
DRIP +28%
ROKU +2.5%
TVIX +5.7%
TZA +2%
FAZ +6%
TQQQ +4.5%
NUGT +21%
ROKU +6.4%
DUST -2.9%
AYX +5.4%
ZM +8.5%
PINS +9.5%
PAGS -0.5%
SFIX -3.5%

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Pay Attention to the Warning Signs, Lads

Listen to me. SAAS stocks are strong today, but that’s not the only thing you should be looking at.

How about this? Top industries ranked by Sharpe in Exodus are defensive.

Or how about today’s pin action in stocks — money flow heading hard into utilities.

Without getting into specifics, you should know, I’ve been barreling into value stocks for weeks now, quietly anticipating a correction in markets that would rip all of you vagrants out from your roots and into sewer pipes. When this happens, as God is my witness, Le Fly shall reign over you supreme — long Tootsie Roll.

Today’s intra-day action isn’t all that bad. Breadth is ok at 38%. Small caps are strong, and traders love buying dips. But all of that is retarded money. The smart money is long bonds, TIPs, REITs, and other value stocks.

GIS is +35% YTD.

Pay attention lad (slaps lads into the face with a strong open palm).

There is a storm of fire coming. The summer is going to be exceedingly hot. Rest assured, “The Fly” is prepared for this actuality and behaving in a manner that is deliberately serious and careful.

I’d also avoid shorting into the hole now, while small caps remain strong and the overall market is strong and prone to upside reversals. Reserve your juice for end of day rips into the morning.

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