18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,441 Blog Posts

Stephen Moore, Male Earnings, And New Yankee Fans

Stephen Moore has been declared to be a ‘moron’ on this blog before. But this morning his comments might’ve warmed my black heart a little, not because of whether they were true or not — but because of the do not give a fuck nature of them.

He complained of “male earnings”, from a societal point of view. Naturally this is sound thinking. We should always be concerned with the major driving source of the global economy — male earnings. However, we live in a world where Arya killed the Night King and Cersei is Queen, Sansa rules Winterfell, The Mother of Dragons exists, and Brienne of Tarth beat The Hound in single combat — so of course this gender ‘insensitive’ comment triggered a lot of people.

“I want everybody’s wages to rise, of course. People are talking about women’s earnings. They’ve risen,” Moore tells CNBC.

“The problem actually has been the steady decline in male earnings, and I think we should pay attention to that, because I think that has very negative consequences for the economy and for society,” the man President Trump wants to nominate for the Fed board

Sometimes I feel like women believe they could be Wonder Woman and charge the trenches of WW1, or fly into outperspace without a space suit like Captain Marvel. In a way, it’s a fucked up psyop on women — because it feeds into their proclivity for escapism and fantasy.

Back to Mr. Moore and “male earnings”. Important? Yes. But it’s sort of like new Yankee fans bitching about not winning a World Series recently. After all, its been 10 years since their last win and there’s a whole young generation of Yankee fans who’ve never seen the Yanks in a ticker tape parade. We all feel so sorry for them (sad face).

We don’t — and that’s because we’re fucked up people who are deeply vindictive, jealous, and filled with violence.

Happy Tuesday, fucked faces.

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The Federal Reserve is Cooking Up New Schemes to Reduce Balance Sheet

Given the bull nature of the market, why on Earth would the Fed scheme up new ways to prop up banks now? Judging by the broad strokes of this plan, it looks like a scheme to get out of Treasuries for the Fed — a balance sheet reduction plot, transferring the bonds from them to banks.

Federal Reserve officials are considering a new program that would allow banks to exchange Treasurys for reserves, a move aimed at ensuring liquidity during difficult times that also would help the central bank decrease the size of its nearly $4 trillion balance sheet.

The so-called standing repo facility is in its early discussion phases. Respected St. Louis Fed economists David Andolfatto and Jane Ihrig have authored two papers on the plan, which they say would ease the regulatory burden for banks who feel pressured into holding ultra-safe assets.

In some quarters, the idea is viewed as a natural extension of current Fed policy. Others, though, think it in essence could be a repackaged form of quantitative easing and thus yet another iteration of the Fed’s decade-long tinkering in financial markets.

The idea comes as central bank policymakers look for ways to cut the bond holdings on its balance sheet without being disruptive to markets.

“With this facility in place, banks should feel comfortable holding Treasuries to help accommodate stress scenarios instead of reserves,” Andolfatto and Ihrig wrote in March. “The demand for reserves would decline substantially as a result. Ample reserves — and therefore the size of the Fed’s balance sheet — could in fact be much closer to their historical levels.”

In a follow-up a few weeks ago, the duo wrote that the first paper “generated a considerable amount of discussion among industry experts. Many people seemed broadly sympathetic to the proposal, while others expressed skepticism.”

A question of balance

Determining an appropriate size for the bond portfolio has been an ongoing headache at the Fed.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments in December that a program to cut the balance sheet was on “autopilot” contributed to a market meltdown that lasted through the fourth quarter. Since October 2017, the Fed has been allowing a set level of proceeds from Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities holdings to roll off each month, resulting in a reduction of just shy of $500 billion.

A subsequent Fed policy pivot that included an intention to end the balance sheet roll-off in September assuaged the market. However, the question of where the level of bonds, and reserves, ends up over the long run remains.

Instituting a standing repo facility would encourage banks to hold more Treasurys and thus reduce the demand for reserves, which escalated following the financial crisis when big Wall Street institutions faced a crippling liquidity shortage. Congress responded to the crisis with reforms that mandated higher holdings of safe assets. While Treasurys are considered safe, they aren’t as liquid during times of stress.

The Fed ideally would like to see a lower reserve level, with the New York Fed putting the desired number from banks around $784 billion. The level of bank reserves at the Fed peaked at nearly $2.8 trillion in mid-2014 and is currently $1.55 trillion, or some $1.41 trillion above the required amount. Reserves and the bond assets are on opposite sides of the balance sheet and thus tend to move in sync.

Backers see the repo facility as a relatively risk-free way of giving banks a release valve in times of financial tightness while providing at least a stealthy form of QE.

“It makes it a much easier transition. The banks would not feel obligated to hold these reserves if the could get the reserves quickly by selling Treasurys to the Fed,” said David Beckworth, a research fellow at the Mercatus Center and former economist at the Treasury Department. “This would be a much more market-driven QE. The banks could quickly get reserves. You could see a big balance sheet again, but that would be driven by the banks.”

Under three previous QE stages — another called “Operation Twist” was balance-sheet neutral — the Fed credited itself with funds that it then used to acquire Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities. The total of the operations was about $3.8 trillion and is widely felt to have stemmed liquidity issues, held interest rates low and juiced up the prices of risky assets like stocks and corporate bonds.

Over the past year and a half or so, the Fed has sought to shed some of those assets and restore some normalcy to monetary policy.

Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen had characterized the balance sheet roll-off as akin to “watching paint dry” as it would run “in the background.” Reality, though, hasn’t been so smooth, and the Fed has sought ways to allay market fears that the new policy regime would be disruptive.

In summary, under this plan, banks would not need to hold cash reserves, but they could instead hold Treasuries. By doing this, the Fed could dump their bonds on them and the banks get to hold something of patriotic value. It seems to me like a good plan to get liquid on banks, while at the same time providing banks with a higher return in the form of government bonds. This of course could lead to disaster, should America’s sovereign debt ever come into question. The banks would be tethering themselves to the Federal Government and I guess, at the end of the day, what difference does it make now?

Long TMV.

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A Brand New Fly Streak Emerges From the Rubble

Last week I got lit on a variety of oil stocks. I sold them out and licked my wounds, swore an oath that I’d exact revenge and made arrangements for such eventualities. As you sit there, star-struck reading this, I am happy to report to you 9 (count ’em NINE) winning trades in a row. Some of these trades were taken on Friday. I cannot be stopped. Failure to adhere to my warnings will lead to your ultimate demise.

JMIA +8.8%
PD +16.4%
HUBS +8.9%
GSKY +7.7%
PINS +8.6%
GDDY +3.5%
LASR +6.5%
DAVA +8.8%
TUFN +8.4%

From here on, I do not intend to ever lose money in a stock again. I’ve released all of the banned readers — did that last year because I wanted to be provoked. I beg of you — bet against me. You have client assets and “The Fly doesn’t know what the fuck he’s doing” — so go ahead. See where it gets you.

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Endless Upside For Disney, China Trade War News Imminent, Moron Upgrades Target

Good morning lads. I say lads because based on the demographic data provided to me, I have like 3 female readers — the rest of you are degenerate males aimlessly spiraling higher in an effort to re-instate the patriarchy. But it’s too late, fucked faces — Captain Marvel is here.

Funny thing about teevee these days, and please don’t take offense, but it’s normalizing attributes in women that actually do not exist. It’s not like most men can go out there and stab a bunch of zombies in the face either, or that zombies even exist — outside the occasional Miami varietal. One thing I know for certain — it there was a Miami zombie on the loose — it wouldn’t be women fighting it. I can just hear my wife getting angry at me now, but that’s because she too is programmed to believe the absolute shit being driveled on teevee and in movies.

Look at Captain Marvel. Ergo, women are powerful. Women are extraordinary and brave, and honestly the better of the two genders — but they’re not fighting Miami Zombies.

Got some news here early going.

JP Morgan increased their price target on DIS thanks to Avengers. Seriously, there is no upside to be had on DIS. The company is clicking on all cylinders, save ESPN.

J.P. Morgan increased its price target on Disney to $150 a share from $137.

“The underlying business continues to perform very well with several notable catalysts ahead that we believe may continue to drive outperformance,” J.P. Morgan analyst Alexia Quadrani said in a note to investors.

Quadrani said J.P. Morgan was also raising its estimates for Disney’s third quarter earnings to $1.80 a share from $1.73 a shares, specifically citing “Avengers: Endgame.”

Next up Trump’s trade war. Why hasn’t this trade war adversely affected China or the US? How is this possible? We were told doom would beckon quickly and that we wouldn’t be able tp escape the pangs — yet here we are at +3.2% GDP.

News coming soon, apparently.

“We’re getting into the final laps,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin was quoted by the New York Times as saying, during an interview at the Milken Institute Global Conference.

According to the report, Mnuchin said that while both countries are nearing a deal, negotiations are reaching a stage where either an agreement could happen — or it could end without a deal.

Both Mnuchin and U.S Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will be in Beijing for talks that start on April 30.

Lastly, some morons at Barclay’s, who fashions himself “the biggest bear” on Target — is now upgrading shares and suggesting the stock could rise by 50%. How can someone be this wrong and now advertise it like it’s cool — because he was such a bear? Target is Target, bland, standard big box retailer — catering to the whims of locals with average goods for cheap prices. No one with money shops there, lest they need some detergent or bar soap — or cat litter.

Barclays’ Matthew McClintock upgraded Target to overweight from equal weight and raised his 12-month price projection to $115 a share from $85. The new target represents a 49% surge from Friday’s close of $77.12.

In a portion of the report entitled “Why the biggest bear on TGT finally upgraded the stock,” the analyst goes on to say that the recent decline in Target shares after Amazon’s said it was moving toward one-day shipping for Prime customers has gone too far. Target shares are down more than 5% in the last week.

“We have now decided with the pullback in the stock due to recent Amazon fears, our expected downside from this near-term view is meaningfully derisked,” he wrote. Target “is already ahead of AMZN in same day delivery … and has built a supply chain that fulfills e-commerce primarily from stores (where next-day delivery is much easier), which stands in contrast to most retailers.”

Futures are slightly lower.

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Game of Thrones Episode 3 Review, Plus Avengers

Over the weekend I saw Avengers End Game and I went into it with low expectations, mainly due to the epic nature of Infinity War. Frankly, it’d be hard for any capeshit movie to beat Infinity war and it’s the same damned reason why Transformers the cartoon movie was so fucking good.

Everyone dies.

When a story is unshackled from corporate greed — it can truly be great. In the case of Transformers, they wanted to produce new plastic toys for retail — so they ended up killing most of the main characters. As a boy, this shocked me — but also made the story great. It was great, not just because Prime and Megatron died, but because it was least expected. The story tellers truly surprised me and I appreciated it. Same went for Infinity war. After that movie ended, the people in the theatre I was in was so shocked — they couldn’t leave their seats. End Game could never deliver that brand of shock value and it didn’t — instead opting for preservation of characters, story book endings, and corny and long drawn out memoriam for those killed. It was entertaining — yes, but not really a great film. It was okay and anyone saying it was great is full of shit.

Now the issue with Game of Thrones, episode 3, is an entirely different issue. The writers have nothing to lose, this being the final season and all, so the story is without boundaries. Anything could happen. The battle scene and the soundtrack was perfect and the story telling did not disappoint. Part of me wanted the Night King to win and to travel south to eat Cersei’s face — but this’ll do. I’m perfectly fine with this outcome. It should be noted, the dragons were entirely useless at night and Mother of Dragons was for nothing on the battle field. Her band of savages were dispatched in short order and were of course no match for the zombie hordes. Truthfully, seeing myself just write that just made me cringe, so I’ll end the blog here.

5 out of 10 for Avengers, 9 out of 10 for GOT episode 3.

Futures are slightly higher — which will most likely extend during the morning session.

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Going to See Avengers Today

I don’t know why I like these super hero capeshit movies. On paper, they’re a lot of juvenile horseshit and serious men doing serious things shouldn’t watch them. Some of my grittier friends refuse to ever watch such movies, declaring them to be “moronic displays of men with small dicks”. Granted, my friends didn’t say that — but it has a nice ring to it.

Our society is presently steered by the chiefs in Hollywood and the people who play the jingles on the radio — and all of the other social stuff online. Never has there been more imitators — people pretending to be things they’re not. The insatiable appetite for celebrity infects the minds of almost every single youth — snapping picks, snapping snaps — in a desperate attempt to garner enough attention to become relevant and talked about — and ultimately loved.

That’s the irony, inasmuch as I can see it. Young people are solely focused on attaining affection from total strangers — yet fail to materialize physical bonds with people — due largely to this pre-occupation. Families aren’t being created and young men are virgins well into their 20s — but they have 5,000 followers on Instagram and their YouTube channels are brimming with likes and Google Adsense is sending them $400 per mo for their troubles.

When I started this bullshit website back in 2007, I never wanted to be famous — per se. The actual motivation behind iBankCoin wasn’t to get rich-er or become famous — but to destroy TheStreet dot com and other financial websites. It seems, and this goes without saying, Le Fly is guided by a desire to exact revenge. Revenge against real enemies, pretend, and future. When Twitter came out — I didn’t want to open an account. I thought it was stupid and reluctantly opened one — but never tried to cultivate it until years later — after seeing how popular it become and how traffic could be driven through it.

I never attained algorithmic favoritism on Twitter, mostly because of my swearing, bouts of rage, and occasional opposition to Neo-liberal ideologies.

One thing is for certain, these social media outlets are causing a psychosis in the youth — depression, anxiety, and manic displays of insanity — as they try to stand out and peacock — doing things such as eating Tide Pods or splashing boiling water onto their bodies — all for the fame — all for the glory.

Pro-tip for my young male readers out there: your cravings for attention will dissipate down to zero after you find a nice girlfriend to spend time with.

As for the stock market: blah, blah, blah — buy PD, JMIA, and TUFN.

Happy Saturday.

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“The Fly” Has Gone Full African Now — Long $JMIA

No need to even look at a single report for this one — what they do, how they do it, and what not. They’re “The Amazon of Africa” — based in Germany. Okay. In my head — they’re offering same day delivery of spears via cheetah, 3 day prime delivery for items over 500lbs via Elephant. For tall buildings, a giraffe will extend his neck into your window and drop off your packages. One might misconstrue this as ridiculously racist — but it’s just me being ignorant to the world around me.

See, I’d been catacomb’d in the streets of Brooklyn since a small boy — running around wildly — throwing dirt into the faces of my friends — water and bleach onto the clothes of strangers — karate man dressed in all black, hockey stick, can in the spokes of my bicycle — vrrooom vrrrommmm — fast.

Since that time, I snaked my way out of the sewers and into Wall Street, enjoyed the cesspool for some time and even moved to a house in Staten Island, bore witness to bad behavior, but was accustomed to it. Left there and headed towards Princeton, NJ — where people acted distinguished — but off, something wrong with them. Whole neighborhood falls asleep at 8pm.

All of that experience, or lack thereof, has led me to African Jungle masks in my portfolio — Germans running Africans ragged for profit, a familiar sentiment, one that has proven to be successful and profitable for Germans. Ergo, I’m along for Le Ride — long JMIA — heading into the bright sun with a fist filled with rage, heart overflowing with empathy — for those less fortunate than me — bereft of Space Alien Magician (SAM) stock market skills and a gentleman like demeanor.

(Tips hat)

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Trump’s GDP Looks Rigged

Look at this chart and tell me with a straight face it isn’t rigged to placate Trump’s id.

During Obama’s term, the GDP zig-zagged sloppily all over the place, mostly planting itself on its face under 2%. It was common parlance to accept the new reality that the economy had gotten mature to the point that 3%+ growth was a relic — something of the past that could not be replicated again. As traders, we dealt with the pangs of this miserly existence and often got caught by surprise with sharp downside surprises and rapes that cannot be explained by simply looking at a chart of the SPY.

Enter Trump and his id — fixated on stocks — always talking about the market and the GDP and how great big and beautiful America was, in comparison to the absolute shitholes of Asia, Canada, Mexico and all of Europe.  Africa isn’t a real continent, so for the purposes of this article, I pretend it does not exist.

Look at that GDP chart. LOOK AT IT.

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