Menaced, Mocked, Mauled

I shed 433 bps today, my largest drawdown in quite some time. The market stopped ebbing and just went all the way. After the close, NFLX missed — which will dislocate the FANG trade tomorrow. In Stocklabs, we are most oversold since the March 2020 lows. What this means isn’t clear yet. But what is clear is the market is different now — a new trading paradigm filled with black smoke and charred out brokerage accounts.

I stand before you down 4% in my trading for April, but flat in my Quant. The Quant is heavily positioned in financials, which have bucked the trend. My best guess is for mean reversion bounce tomorrow. If we do not bounce tomorrow, I will execute myself in the public square by way of jumping into a pool filled with sharks.

The death of the momo-trader is in full swing now, masked by benign moves in the general indices. You get these pops and you think it’s like before — but it’s not. It then collapses onto your face and you either have to fess up to your stupidity and cut losses or preside as it wafts lower.

This is the after-effects of a combustible market, led by a bunch of GME-DOGECOIN fucking morons. We have the weakest hands of all time — people on welfare, playing the market with their stimulus checks. The indecorous mess we are in is only matched by the absurdity of the COVID debacle. Far and wide, stretching out as far as the eye can see, people are racing, clamoring even, for a dose of vaccine to be safe and to avoid being stricken by the aerial aids.

It’s a somber somber day at House Fly, off by more than 300bps, losses exasperated by my attempts at recovering from an opening of -150bps. I am officially in a slump, off 2.5% for the month now and there isn’t an end in sight.

You almost lost your virginity when you were 15, but had to wait ’till 20 — didn’t you? You almost made coin today, but instead fell victim to the pangs of hell. I, myself, shed 129bps, in a rather uneventful turn lower. I gathered up all the gumption I could gather and parlayed myself into risky bets again.

What can I say? I have a penchant for danger.

MTD I am now FLAT — totally immune to the dangers most plebs have succumbed to in the recent weeks and months of tumult.

I am open to changing my mind at any time.

Also, Jim Biden might limit the levels of nicotine in cigarettes. MO and BTI got forked late in the day. There isn’t any place to hide, of course, in a cancel all orders type of pin action.

Let’s pray to the Gods out cryptos rally tonight, offering is a small semblance of normalcy and free money.

You’ll rue the day you were born, if you choose to hold onto those shorts — into the teeth of an already oversold market. Forget about the SPY and the QQQ’s. I am talking about the real market — piece of shit solar and EV stocks. Things are on sale now and if we’re traveling down the haunted roads of 2014, we bounce during May and collapse for the balance of the year.

I have held my butter quite well and have avoided being festooned like the lot of you, all over Wall Street, guts dangling off lamp posts.

Listen to me now: get yourselves vertical and into this shit-shorm now, for a bounce is coming and it’s going to have the biggest tits you’ve ever seen.

You deserve nothing. You actually get what you get and you like it. The rally in DOGE the past week is just one of many degeneracies plaguing the United Steaks — a meme country with two evenly divided cultures. On on end are batshit crazies and the other is everyone else. Depending on what your bias is, you of course will view the other party as the batshit crazy ones. No one wants to believe that they are in fact mentally addled — ADHD, autistic, OCD, mental midgets. It’s a hard pill to swallow — but once you take it all in — perhaps you can feign normalcy.

Markets have DISLOCATED again and everything high valuation is plunging. This is exactly what transpired in the hellish 2014, a year that shall forever live in infamy for yours truly. This go around, I am smarter, wise, harder to fool — grizzled by centuries of learned knowledge. I have trained my entire life to preside over something like this — the DOGECOIN crowd having their comeuppance. As it happens, DOGE is just about the only crypto left standing. It saddens me to tell you this — but cryptos are rapidly descending into the fires now and will retest Saturday night’s bedlam levels. I know — HODL. But also, go fuck yourself.

The days of easy money and morons on Twitter showing off their tits and profits are over. This is Jim Biden’s American now — the land of active shooters, foreign wars, and a fuck load of losses. BRACE YOURSELVES, however, for an oversold bounce looks probable. Ah, you didn’t see that coming — you piece of shits.

We are OS now and if this is 2014, we might very well enjoy a soiree during the entire month of May. Even during the worst of times there is reprieve.

NOTE: We are not accepting any Exodus/StockLabs new customers. If you are a legacy Exodus member, you have access to SL now and get to enjoy its many comforts. As we are still in beta and working thru FUCKING BUGS, our mahogany heavy doors are closed to the unwashed masses, aka reader class of pleb.

100:1 leverage bets got BTFO this evening, as BTC flash crashed from 60k down to $51k in a matter of minutes. The event was surreal and it took everything down with it. ETH touched down under $2k and I had the opportune to buy more. The alt-coins got submerged in shit and are still dragging lower.

Why did this happen?

You can thank DOGECOIN and the entire SHIT-COIN complex taking off in recent days that defied logic. Into this recency rally, BILLIONS were leveraged — the largest in history — causing the sell off to cascade and snowball. The dislocation in BTC was most representative by the price fluctuations between the exchanges. BTC was trading $2k higher on Coinbase than on Robinhood tonight. Almost every exchange has lower prices than Coinbase. Litecoin went from $290 to $220s in a matter of minutes and then short-squeezed the fuck higher to $295, only to then slide back lower.

What happens next?

If this were a stock market flash crash, I would all but guarantee a retesting of the lows. This isn’t the stock market, so my confidence level isn’t there to make such a prediction. I will say, without doubt, there is now PRICE MEMORY above here, as normies got blown the fuck out tonight and just want their money back. They’re not used to major paper losses and do not want to see the lows again, so they’ll be selling over the next few days.

Bottom line: if you’re like me, buying every first of the month like a robot — this sell off is a gift. We buy more ETH and we’ll trade some SHITCOINS when the momo comes back. I saw this coming and the sell off was warranted — but it’s not over yet.

If by Tuesday we are back above $60k, you can declare the worst to have passed. If we’re wallowing in the mid $50’s — beware of another rug pull.

Countless retards have made small plebeian fortunes long DOGECOIN, following Elon Musk since the Super Bowl, enamored, elated even, with themselves for being so clever. I am not one to scoff at the idea of making coin off dumb things — I do so every single day. But this is a new form of dumb, buttressed by the idea of “never selling”. To have “paper hands” is to be weak and also gay. Well, I must admit, this is a brand new shock to my system — the evergreen on these idiots will survive their fortunes — believe me.

“ONE IN THE HAND IS BETTER THAN TWO IN THE BUSH” was a mantra I grew up on — by people who built wealth the old fashioned way — stock market chicanery. The idea of keeping DOGE because, well just because, is plainly dumb but also it REINFORCES the idea that this party we are in now can last forever.

LET ME REMIND YOU OF CHAMATH.

SPACs ARE DOWN 23% FROM PEAK, BUT CHAMATH IS DOWN MOAR pic.twitter.com/jSgkZkL3yx

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) April 17, 2021

The SPACs were a great idea. How could you lose? You invested in XYZ because the CEO of XYZ had lots of cash and he was going to buy an EV company or a solar company and you’d all being sucking dicks and drinking champagne for eternity. Until it ended and now you’re just left holding your own dick.

Presently the weakest amongst us are embedded in the crypto space. We are talking about kids who don’t know the difference between BTC and DOGE — just long because it’s fun and because it’s trending and because WOW OMG THE DOG LOGO IS SUPER COOL.

Fuck you and fuck your investments. I will see them down 90% and then chuckle at the tragedy, as you figure out ways to pay down the credit card you borrowed from.

A harsh reckoning is coming for all of you. Brace yourselves, as your stupidity is about to get checked.

In other news, BTC will still touch $100k in 2021.

And already Mrs. Fly is planning out a new vacation. I had gone years without being disturbed and now it seems I am being uprooted every month. In the end, all I want to do is trade. Speaking of which, I made 27bps while away. For the week I shed 76bps, really nothing.

Charleston is an unbelievable city. I will be moving there at some point in my life, for sure.

In my crypto trading account I went to 100% cash. I cannot think of a more apropos time to liquidate it, seeing DOGE and LTC and BCH shoot thru the roof. The fact is, the cryptos on the Robinhood app have been acting suspiciously. That’s such a fucking God damned piece of shit company. Who know’s what they’re up to over there — handwringing and such, but I know it’s illegal. The CEO should be tossed into jail forever.

I’m exhausted after driving for 6 hours. After driving for 6 hours, I went grocery shopping. The glamorous life of Le Fly is without boundaries.

It’s one thing to HODL and shoot for the moon — but an entirely different thing for it to happen.

Over the past 24 hrs I’ve traded in and out of DOGECOIN successfully about 5 times. My wife and son have traded it, all for “free money.” The coin has spiked from 7 cents to 24 cents and it’s all fun and games. I have traded in and out from 4 different coins today, all for extreme profit. Over the past two months I started buying MKR, AAVE, UNI, LINK and REP to go along with my monstrous ETH position. Go ahead and take a look at what those are doing — MKR up more than 50% the past day.

If this were the stock market I’d be screaming to sell. But to be honest, I really do not have a feeeeel for what cryptos will do next. This run is parabolic of course, but also enticing to plebs. At dinner this evening, in Charleston, I heard a group of young punks discussing their SHITCOIN portfolios. It is pervasive and global.

No one ever talks about why these coins are going up and what revenues these elaborate science projects are expected to make. The vast majority of people are amateur technical analysts, shit-buying shit coins based on shitty ideas — myself included. Over the past year my crypto account has risen by 1,200%. What started out as a joke and a complete experiment is now real and from time to time I begin to believe in the hype — because recency bias is a powerful tonic.

Nevertheless, I assure you this cannot last.

Aside from that, I made 173bps in the market today, left Savannah for Charleston and will be concluding my “fun filled” family vacation with my angsty uneasy children tomorrow, heading back to NC where I will continue to toil about and work hard to get Stocklabs to the people next week.

I took a bicycle tour of Savannah today, on one of those big barreled assed beach cruisers, mingling with the plebs from here and there — taking a view of all of the fancy houses. Oh how wonderful it was to imagine SLAVE QUARTERS and Cotton Barons traversing antebellum Savannah, ordering their blacksmiths to make their iron decor even more ornate. It’s a funny thing about the south — had slaves once upon a time and made money off people and today they still make money off those people by telling their stories. I can’t help but to feel slightly uneasy about the order of things in both Savannah and Charleston. Might I add, the only black folk I see here are either homeless or roaming around on drugs, or catering to people inside antebellum era eateries.

We depart for Charleston tomorrow and I can honestly say Savannah is one of the most beautiful cities I’ve ever seen, specifically because of the live oak trees branched out far and wide, festooned with Spanish moss. I have never seen anything quite like it — but the city on a whole borders on being one giant shit-hole.

On the issue of investments, I shed 140bps today, as the NASDAQ poleaxed into the afternoon session. I was not around to stem any tides or make trades to improve upon my position. I did, however, execute numerous crypto trades — all for extreme profit.

I bought a bunch of DOGECOIN before a shower and sold it after I came out for a $2k profit. I bought and sold XLM for +20k. I made coin in my core holdings — based around ETH now about $2,400. I had a massive trading position in ADA — booked a gain in that too. I am presently long a lot of MATIC — and I intend to book gains there as well. I’ve always hated the idea of certain alt-coins and recoil with embarrassment when hearing novices discuss their crypto ideas and strategies. Nonetheless, this is like how people used to talk during the stock market early days of the 1800s or early 1900s. No one knew what the fuck was going on, other than price. Eventually it all shit the bed and people FESTOONED themselves all over the pavements, amidst lost fortunes and shattered egos. I, however, do not value money too greatly. But I want to collect as much of it as I can.

There are many crypto gurus out there — but most of them are shit-tiered technical analysis retards who do YT livestreams discussing the next moves for Bitcoin and Cardano. I am here to tell you we are in a parabolic hyper-move in an asset class that is understood by none and the sky is the limit — but it’s all predicated around confidence. When that vigor dissipates, you will be left holding a horrible bag of flaming shit.

So take profits fast and do not be afraid to book losses, even though the HODL mantra has been something of a marvel when it comes to sage advice.

My concluding thoughts on cryptos is simple:

There isn’t a chance in hell BTC doesn’t bust thru $100k this year. At 30:1 ratio, ETH will be north of $3500. I suspect many of your alt-coins will be 100-300% higher. You will feeeeeel wealthy — but remember you can’t buy a wife in Decentraland and your kids’ college tuition cannot be paid with BTC.