iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,225 Blog Posts

SELL STOCKS TWICE

Only fools think the market is going up now — absolute cave-apes, absolutely.

Data out of China suggests (dot dot dot) LOWER PRICES.

Nasdaq futures are off by 18. Sure, my longs will shed value tomorrow — some of which are negatively correlated to the market — so I might get lucky. But I’m smartly positioned in SOXS, TVIX and TZA.

What the fuck are you positioned in — bank stock calls?

Why am I short?

Well, because we could not break past $175 on the QQQs and because today was a behavioral shift in stocks — marked and noted by three down days in a row. I suppose some of you have a mind for this sort of thing — but, regrettably, most of you are sub 100 IQers who move on instinct — see shit, break something, fuck something, burp.

I spit in your general direction.

Ladies and gentlemen, the President.

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If You’re Heavily Long — Be Worried

I ended up taking this day trade RENN into tomorrow — even though I’m 99% sure it will trade lower tomorrow. To pair that, I am long SOXS, TVIX and TZA — with a variety of longs — none of which are meaningful.

If you’re heavily long here and betting on a surge tomorrow — GOOD LUCK. Odds are we’ll trade sharply lower. I’d keep a close eye on WTI in the overnight session and ignore anything you hear or see on CNBC.

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Doubled up on $RENN

I missed the sale at $2.45, would’ve netted me an intra-day gain of 41%. Now that I’m back in the saddle, able to trade, I did something I should never do — buy more of a stock knifing lower after hitting a recent high. The technicals for RENN are now deplorable and I really should be closing out this trade — chalking up to an unfortunate event. There will be many missed calls and unfortunate events; and I’m already numb to the idea that this too could end up going the same way as so many other missed calls during my time in these markets.

But I won’t let it just slip away so easily.

I have a mind for this sort of thing — doing incredulous things — simply because I feel like doing them.

Plainly, you should not follow me into this trade — just wait and see how it works out. Consider it an idle form of passive entertainment.

NOTE: I sold LITB +15.5% one day hold.

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All the Confirmation I Need: Market is Breaking Down, Barreling Lower

Whether we delve into the depths of the recent crisis or not is not relevant. What is important to note is the uptrend has broken and we’re now breaking lower — paired nicely with a break in oil and also junk bonds. This is all early stages and the drama can get all the more rueful.

I’ve been spending my morning, reading, amongst other things, planning on how to best capture the essence of the fires to come. I’ve been selling out of my recent Chinese gambles — since they were meant to be quick trades. No sense in holding onto dead weight, whilst the ship is sinking.

I sold CCCL -6%, JP -9%, SFUN -7%, and SORL -2%.

I bought SOXS — because betting against semis is fun and easy to do.

My trading account is about 50% cash and I’ll be unwinding the majority of my long positions soon.

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OECD: Italy GDP to Contract by 0.2% — Worst Since 2013

Finally, the I in PIGS is barreling back towards perdition. According to the OECD, Italy’s economy will contract this year — marking its worst showing for Europe’s largest indebted nation since 2013.

The OECD slashed its forecast for the Italian economy to a 0.2 percent contraction this year, reflecting the effects of the global trade slowdown.

Italy fell into recession at the end of 2018, and is still battling the slump despite a recent increase in exports, fixed investment and domestic consumption. Premier Giuseppe Conte’s government has been dismissive of economists’ negative outlooks, saying output will increase later this year.

Italy’s projected 0.2 percent contraction this year would be the worst performance since the country’s output fell 1.7 percent in 2013. The latest figure compares with 0.9 percent growth foreseen by the OECD in November.

The Paris-based organization said Italy will return to growth next year, but with only a 0.5 percent expansion.

The OECD did see some bright spots for Italy, including lower headline inflation and supportive fiscal measures.

Recession is the trick word here. This should also pair wonderfully with the specter of a ‘COMPLETELY INSANE’ debt plan by their new populist government.

This from October of last year.

Amongst all European countries, Italy is the worst, financially. I’m sure none of this means anything to the likes of you — boozehounds only intrigued by events happening in real time — unable or willing to extrapolate the details of something so insidious as this — it menaces all with the prospects of perfidy.

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Girls at Bloomberg: Trump Interested in China Trade Deal to Pump Stock Prices Higher

Some girls named Jennifer Jacobs and Saleha Mohsin has a source who says Trump wants to ink a deal with China, not for the benefit of the American people, but to buoy share prices — in what can only be the most narcissitic thing a person has ever done in the history of the world.

Now to the girls to see this ground-breaking reporting.

President Donald Trump is pressuring U.S. trade negotiators to cut a deal with China soon in hope of fueling a market rally, as he grows increasingly concerned that the lack of an agreement could drag down stocks, according to people familiar with the matter.

As trade talks with China advance, Trump has noticed the market gains that followed each sign of progress, said the people, who requested anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. He watched U.S. and Asian stocks rise on his decision to delay an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods scheduled for March 1, one of the people said.

Trump’s fixation on stock-market performance has shaped his assessments of his economic policies. Top White House staff know to be aware of how markets are performing when summoned to the Oval Office to speak with Trump because the president often asks: ‘‘What’s happening with the markets?’’

Trump’s economic team has told him an agreement will unleash a market rally, the people said. Advocates of a compromise with China have also told Trump it is crucial to cut a deal soon to reap the full boost ahead of the election because benefits such as more Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans and other products will have a delayed impact and take time to reverberate through the economy, they said.

“The risk could be more to the downside, but on the other hand this would take away some certainty and that is good for companies looking to invest,” said Sebastien Page, head of global multi-asset strategy at T. Rowe Price in Baltimore. “If we get a meaningful trade deal, there is some upside scenarios for emerging market stocks.”

There you have it. The President, most likely due to his failure as a CEO to create any form of shareholder value — performing one public display of bankruptcy after the next, is a box watcher. He watches the markets, just like you and me, hoping for the love of God that Larry Judlow performs some form of magic to get the obstinate Chinese to broker a deal with him — just so he can cavort around the country telling people how well stocks did during his tenure.

BONUS: Jen chimes in on the trade deficit. Tariff man is so screwed.

UPDATE:

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Any Interest in These Fucking Charts?

Futures are lower tonight. No big fucking deal — unless you’re into that sort of thing.

Here’s a few charts for you road-slobs.

look at it

Look At It

LOOK AT IT

That’s nice.

 

I’m reading Trimalchio, which I’m sure you haven’t the slightest idea what that even means, nor do you care. Slow, dim-witted, indecorous, green faced with a  slimy countenance of a wraith — ghostly and ghastly beyond descript,  weaving away from the natural radiance that enchants all men of honor and dignity —  ruefully at the meridian of everything I hate.

Good nite.

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The Ass-End of the Rally is the Most Glorious

Here here.

I bought TOUR and LITB towards the end of the day. Markets behaved fine, and I find myself long both TZA and TVIX at the same time long a variety of really low brow stocks — like FTFT, CCCL, SFUN, and unfortunately JP. This is the very worst portfolio one could imagine compiling — and I head into this hail storm with a chest filled with bravery, amidst the discordant din of the very worst people around me — naysayers and shit-throwers, yelling and hollering with their mouths filled with white foam.

I do not bend to your ideology and will cast a wide and ominous shadow over your body when your severed head is gripped firmly in my blood soaked hands.

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PEAK DEGENERACY

If you’re not paying attention to the subtle under-currents of the market, we are in the midst of extreme risk taking in sub-culture stocks. These aren’t even real companies — but shells of companies domiciled inside communist countries without audits. People are chasing them, playing the game, for profit.

Rule #1 when playing them.

Sell fast.

Rule #2.

Never believe these stocks to be anything more than a quick trade.

Sometimes the trade goes sideways and you get fucked. This is life. Get over it. I am taking a diversified approach to peak degeneracy and intend to roll into tomorrow with a full fist of rage, filled with these names. I can do this because I am partly hedged by TZA and TVIX. Should the wheels fall off this bitch, I have a fluffy pillow to fall back on.

If you’re playing some of these names and want the action, GET IN Exodus for the real time commentary and hive-mind group think.

I’ll be adding 2 or 3 more names by the close.

 

NOTE: I bought GPRE.

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