A DECADE WORTH OF JOBS WIPED AWAY IN A MONTH

America lost more than 5 million jobs the past week, giving us a grande total of at least 22 million jobs lost. This does not include the millions of small business owners, sloths, and people with money who didn’t want to file a claim. We’ve now lost 10 years worth of jobs and Wall Street is snoozing agin, with the Dow barely down 200 and the Nasdaq ripping +80.

I get it. Liquidity and the future is so fucking bright. I’d be curmudgeon if I was to suggest the market was GRAVELY underestimating the severity of the economic collapse at hand and how the weak have inherited the earth and we’ve become a society filled with self-absorbed narcissists whose only desire is for a higher Nasdaq.

You hear the term “bending the curve” being thrown around — because less and less people are being admitted into hospitals. The death rate, for the time being, will remain very elevated — roughly 5% of patients admitted — which is insanely high. The idea is getting back to work by mid May to early June and every back to normal. But you know that’s not going to happen. We have a world filled with PTSD victims and consumer behavior has been permanently altered by this event. There will be no V shaped recovery because things cannot go back to the way it was.

Nevertheless, we’ll try and harken back to the halcyon days of Jan 2020 when everyone was rich and happy and leveraged to the hilt trading SAAS stocks.

A rather pleasant day at the office. Longs bought dips, shorts fiddled with themselves. We gapped lower and did nothing all day. There was a brief moment late afternoon when bulls looked like they wanted Amazon alone to force the Nasdaq higher. But it wasn’t meant to be.

Stocks collapsed under the weight of their own hubris and now the bulls are faced with the horrible fate of having to defend themselves in the midst of unprecedented chicanery. Their case is only this:

“I suck Fed cock. Therefore, I am protected.”

A whore can only seek refuge under the protection of her pimp for so long. At some point along this very long and narrow corridor, something will go wrong. When it does, there will be no bids, no one to gather up the mess — just bleeding out and pain.

I’ve begun the arduous process of betting on a resumption of the bear market — a retesting of the lows. I anticipate this will happen inside of two months.

The Dow was off by 445 — with downside action led by banks.

Consensus opinion for a reopening of the economy is looking like mid to late May. Many executives do not expect normalcy until mid June to July, with a possibility of ‘rolling quarantines.’ Today’s manufacturing and retail numbers were almost TWICE AS BAD as projected. We’re barely down 500 now and dip buyers have been out in force, nakedly smug and their arrogance burning to a brilliance — daring Mother Market to punish them with her unique cruelty.

I booked losses on a series of trades places yesterday and went net short today, not because I feel COLLAPSE is coming. I am merely testing the waters here, feeling out the possibility that the game will switch from long to short. There was never a reason to rally in the first place, so I am careful not to fall into the bearshitter mentality that demands satisfaction. You get what you deserve and most people deserve nothing.

Truth is, the pain trade probably shifted with yesterday’s grotesque exhibition of greed and celebration. As 90% of the country endures the pain of economic collapse, these fuckheads on Wall Street are jerking off to Fed bucks and bidding up Amazon to record highs. The optics are of course rancid and there’s nothing on this planet that can ever change that. But you cannot continue at this rate of return without reverting to the mean.

The strategy is to bet on a mean reversion, then fuck faces later.

March Retail Sales -8.7% — RECORD LOWS

April Empire State Manufacturing -78.2 — RECORD LOWS

BBY posted -30% YOY sales

GS, BAC and C posted worse than expected results due to loan losses, mark downs, and heightened reserved in preparation for more losses.

WTI is under $20 and the DAX is lower by 3.4%.

US futures are down more than 500, an it appears, the smugness will be wiped clean from the faces of bulls this morning. However, I am almost certain they will buy dips today and will not be sufficiently punished for their misdeeds with anything shorts of a 2,000 point rout. I suspect I will sell numerous stocks today and I also suspect I will increase my bearish bets. I suspect my FAZ position will skyrocket and the good fortune I’ve recently enjoyed via wild eyed gambits will come to an end. That is ok — since a shift in markets to the downside will make it inexorably easier to make money on bearish bets, since we’ve run up so effervescently without a care in the world.

Davey Day Trader Portnoy entered the stock game a month ago with a chest filled with hubris. He made some quick coin, off RAZOR THIN margins, and got quickly dispatched and poleaxed for a million, or 33% his original investment. The net result of Mr. Portnoy having nothing to do on a sports website in a land without sports is wanton degeneracy and squalor.

He now is the Great Unboxer — receiver of gifts from strange and unusual people across the country. His “stoolies” send him dildos and samurai swords to assuage him against the pangs of stock market misery. This is a brutal affair, Mr. Portnoy, and only the lion shall prevail. As you sit there in your abode unboxing candied cigarettes and frozen pizzas, remember what made you rich and REMOVE YOURSELF from the stock market immediately, else fall victim to a most heinous series of misadventures and loss.

His lux NYC apartment now.

Morning. #UnboxingIX pic.twitter.com/Vrx4JGhslX

— Dave Portnoy (@stoolpresidente) April 14, 2020

On the other side of the spectrum, yours truly is having a MOST MAGNIFICENT time in the market, not because I am smarter or richer than Mr. Portnoy — but because I am a professional. I’ve put in my 10,000 hours and have EXPERT skills at identifying trends, something I’ve always been good at. Most of you were never any good and 10,000 hours of practice would do nothing for you, no more than a silly mask would protect you against COVID-19. I am an APEX PREDATOR in this market — a MASTER CLASS fisherman. My core staples trounced everything in the market today and I’m not even bragging about those.

Into the close, I reloading my gun with pipeline plays and a little SAAS. A little of this and a little of that. Markets aren’t supposed to make sense and the free markets have been dead for quite some time. I am looking out for my interests and the interests of those with me and have abandoned the religion of justice and morality long ago. This is not about doing what is right — but about pushing the envelope until proven wrong.

Let’s be clear, no one is doing it like me. And for the record, I currently have 11 open positions and I am up on 10 of them. So this isn’t a case of merely cherry picking closed trades. I booked another 5 (count ’em) wins this morning — all purchased yesterday. In the case of ROKU, I bought in the AHs last night after earnings. I really don’t give a fuck and it’s my balls that permits me to crush.

My last 36 trades.

JWN +24.6%
WW +16.4%
ALLY +13.7%
STWD +18.5%
H +14%
TREE +10.1%
SQ +7.7%
ZEN +7%
CPB +1.9%
NYMT +33%
MFA +8.3%
MAC +10.8%
CNK +4.4%
SM +4.8%
GCO +5.1%
STWD +1.4%
RWT +25%
PMT +8.6%
MTG +7.8%
CIT +12.5%
CC +11%
ORC +9%
CBRL +8%
HA +8.8%
NUGT +10.4%
FTI +6.6%
(PEI -3.6%)
EGO +3.1%
CEMI +10.6%
PVAC +`14.6%
ROKU +3.1%
BMRA +10%
NGD +16.1%
EXK +9.4%
ENBL +10%
PAA +4.5%

See pal, that’s who I am and you’re nothing.

Regarding my open positions. Most of them are high dividend paying staples, so I have no interest in selling now. The purpose of this blog is to inform you, once again, that no matter how well you think you’re doing right now, “The Fly” is doing better. LOOK AT THE PROOF ABOVE.

Good day. 45% cash, cruising into a +500 melt up.

All trades are given in real time in Exodus.

This pretty much sums up the current market.

IMF slashes growth forecasts, says world will ‘very likely’ experience worst recession since the 1930s; FUTS +328

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) April 14, 2020

I never knew the Fed possessed this much power and control. Sure, I knew they had tool kits and I knew they could sway markets. But I never thought they didn’t need an economy to jimmy-rig markets higher. We can all sit at home now, enjoying the splendor of markets and reel in new fresh money every single day. I’m not being jaded or cynical now. I am impressed!

For those of you who are still concerned with “MUH FREE MARKETS” — fuck off. She died in 2008.

You don’t like RIGGED markets? Why the hell not? The market can go two ways, up or down. When it goes down, everything gets scary. People lose their jobs and jump out from windows. When it goes up, pink cocaine is flung around at parties and people pop champagne corks into each other’s face. You have two options — bet lower or higher — 50/50 chance — right?

WRONG.

100% chance of higher, but because we’re all smarter than the market — we root for the underdog. We root for the NY Mets while the bastard fucking Yanks win championship after championship.

If rigged, great. It would be equal to playing a video game that gave you UNLIMITED MONEY after kicking some monkey in the ass. In this reality, every time men with power get scared of losing their stuff, they force the government to make markets go higher. They have UNLIMITED money tricks — because we have the strongest military. As a pleb, all you have to do is go along for the ride and quit thinking you’re smarter.

Bear in mind, this isn’t a recommendation for passive investment, at least not now. You cannot get the sort of returns I am banking on a daily basis by buying and holdings. The point I am attempting to make is that RIGGED markets isn’s such a bad thing. You have the answers to the final exam. Are you man enough to use them?

Do not misconstrue this post for a bull market fanboy missive. I still believe we’re entering a horrible bear tape. But along the way, expect those bastards to fight it the whole way, pulling tricks out from their assholes and shoving them on CNBC for the public to admire.

Nasdaq futs are +140.

The Russell was lower by 2.5%. The XLF was off by 3.5%, but Amazon, Microsoft, Amazon, Netflix and Apple were strong — so dick suckers were out in FORCE today — raping the market with their ashen jargon. Truth be told, the QQQs are only down 5% for the year and this angers many into fits of rage. How could it be? What is this all about?

Quiet. Stop thinking and listen. Do you hear it? The sounds of cracking bark under the heft of sloppily positioned men who gave up thinking long ago in favor of religion. These people will soon be crestfallen into the pits of hell — where devil and monsters eat them live. While it’s true, this blog cannot possibly predict to the exact session when this will occur. But the writing is on the wall, as they say, and the Easter Eggs are easy to find, if you have a sharp eye.

For the session, I EXTENDED my excellent, now 28 for 29.

(PEI -3.6%)
EGO +3.1%
CEMI +10.6% (day trade)
PVAC +`14.6% (day trade)

For the day, I sold short banks, went long midstream pipelines, and one coronavirus play, and I bought some gold too — small piece of shit miners.

Do not misconstrue this missive for a complaint. These are just facts.

The market is already dead. Agreed? Without the Fed we are at zero right now and the market is halted for 6 months. Going forward into a NEGATIVE 40% GDP, markets would COLLAPSE again and cause social discord to the point of home invasions for toilet paper. Essentially, we are presently propped up on digital dollars papering over losses and filling the black void that is this depression. Pardon me as I take artistic license on the word “depression.” I’ve always conjured up wild ideas in my head that -40% GDP and 30% unemployment fit the bill.

The reason why we’re not down 3,000 today is because news of a reduced number of people being admitted into NYC ICUs. Now these numbers were bound to drop, since we’re all holed up in the house now. What happened once we’re released out into the public, like Kool-Aid guys hopped up on too much caffeine — touching and grabbing one another again — sneezing directly into each other’s fucking faces?

I don’t know — but Morgan Stanley does. The catamites are Morgan UPPED their lower end range for the SPY for 2020 to 2,500, chiding investors to take advantage of dips — a lesson of sorts now with the benefit of hindsight. Yes, all of the stewards of capital who were holding COCKS IN HANDS a fortnight ago are now declared geniuses again — because they had the eternal fortitude and fortune to fall asleep at the wheel. Clients will be most grateful this Xmas season, as the FEMA COFFINS are ferried into their city square by intermodal transport.

Everyone is a fucking know it all and everyone knows nothing. In the end, you drop dead of a heart attack and someone says a few nice things about you, buries you cheaply, and forgets you ever existed. In the meantime, from now until then, markets are going to apply max pain. It is your job as someone who is tactical to figure out where the pain resides. Does it reside in the asleep at the wheel guy sucking Fed cock every night or the guy who’s missed out on a decade worth of bull market because he couldn’t accept the rigged game?

I do not have a definitive answer — because like you I know nothing. I am only good at reacting spontaneously to the pangs and the bangs. For the day, I sold two stocks, basically a wash. I like gold, even some oil here — and fuck the banks.