Fed Stays Put: Three (count ’em) Rate Cuts Still On Track

I have a difficult time reconciling the US 10yr at 4.3% an the FOMC’s plans to cut rates 3 times in 2024. Nevertheless, markets seems to be ok with today’s meeting and stocks are, more or less, fixed higher.

We were met with a massive green candle when the news was announced at 2pm and then a red one and then some small one’s and now it appears we might drift higher into the close. Since I am unsure, I am keeping my $SOXS and $TMV positions for the time being — but have a mind to close them out soon.

I do not view this tape in particular as something teeming with opportunity. I view it as a giant trap in one way or another, the slow churn up against a recent move to the upside might be a warning that prices are about to crack lower.

Trading on Fed Days is always stupid and it really increases the cortisol because the moves are often violent and misdirection before a major move makes itself known.

I see now we are cracking lower and the assumption here is we’ll dive into the close after an initial spike. But this might be another false move. I often do not posses much conviction on Fed Days until after 3pm.