Guess Where MER is Going?

Merrily Lunch is going to its brand fucking new book value of 29 smackers. What did they lose, like 15 billion or some shit? I think they marked down some of their notes to 34 cents on the dollar. What a joke. The only thing mildly entertaining about the [[MER]] call was all the fucking “F-bombs” dropped in it.

Aside from that, [[ABK]] is going to have its credit rating slashed. Well, gee-golly-wiz, about fucking time. Look for [[MBI]] and [[RDN]] to get cut too.

What does this mean?

Well, for starters, they will all go bankrupt, barring a bail out. Then, all of the fuckers who own mortgage backed notes, will have to write them down some more, following fresh rating cuts—post fucked MBI and ABK.

Essentially, it’s one heck of a domino effect that will decapitate the heads of strong headed bulls. Should you choose to ignore these issues, well then, good luck losing your capital.

With my money, I am going to load the fuck up on [[SKF]] and [[SMN]], ahead of tonight’s flurry of banking earnings reports.

Also, should [[FXP]] dip to the low 80’s, I’ll be a big buyer.

UPDATE: More vintage Cramer.

Today, the Chinese gov’t boosted bank reserve requirements, again—in an effort to curb inflation. Unfortunately, for them, it will likely lead to a precipitous “fuck you too,” as the U.S. slowly drifts into recession. They have to delicately balance runway domestic inflation, at a time when their biggest consumer (U.S.) is eating pavement.

By the way, inflation is at an 11 year high in China.

Keep in mind, there is no such thing as soft landings.

Aside from that, the communist oracle’s in Beijing have decided to implement good ol’ fashioned price controls on meat, eggs and cooking oil. As a result, bank and food related stocks are getting punched in the cock, in early Shanghai trading.

And, to top off the shit pie, their currency (renminbi) just hit a fresh high versus the dollar.

I may regret selling some of my [[FXP]] today.

At the time of the post, the Shanghai composite was down nearly 3%.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGvt8GngX9k 450 300]

With today’s spike in my inverse etf’s, “The Fly” was up another 2.8%, much to your chagrin.

Aside from a surprise Fed cut, there is no reason to be long stocks. I mean, really, aside from price action, is there any fundamental reason to go long? The downturn in the economy has just begun. There is a lot of pain left for bullish hand fuckers.

As sure as I’m sitting here, [[INTC]] will print $15, sometime in 2008. The end user is hamstrung. Do not get sucked into PE ratio value traps. The “E’s” are all lies.

Beneath the surface today, [[ABK]], [[MBI]], [[RDN]] and [[PMI]] were obliterated. Should any of them go belly up, look out below; the financials will get drawn and quartered.

Towards the end of the day, I initiated short positions in [[DOW]], [[DD]], [[FCX]] and [[MON]], via [[SMN]]. Additionally, I bought more [[DUG]], anticipating a cascading sell-off in [[XOM]]. And, I bought a little [[SKF]], on this dip.

The notion that the financials have bottomed is laughable. If your brokers are telling you to go long, fire them—for they fucking suck meatloaf.

I bought 2,000 [[SKF]] @ $112.

Disclaimer: If you buy SKF because of this post, Bernanke will raise rates. And, you may lose money.

I bought 10,000 shares of [[SMN]] @ $46.95.

Disclaimer: If you buy SMN because of this post, your local garbage man will spit on your new car. And, you may lose money.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jahKMjPD30 450 300]

Look, without question I feel the market will be much lower by March. All rallies will be theater, nothing of substance.

Should the Fed cut, I will sell into it, then bulk up on shorts. Because of my bias, I will not buy the dips, even for a trade.

Instead, I will hold cash, then reposition into double inverse etf’s. As of now, I’m looking to buy [[SMN]], which gets me short basic resource stocks, including [[MON]].

Don’t get me wrong, I think MON is a great stock. However, there is a ceiling to the amount I will pay for watermelon seeds.

By the way, what do you chart chomping type think of [[XOM]] here? My technician says: “it’s forming a head and shoulders top here Fly.”

Again, [[DUG]] gets you short XOM.

Bottom line: I’m covering some shorts, but will not attempt to play the upside, since it goes against my long term strategy. Getting cute with trades is the root of all tax losses.

I sold 5,000 [[EEV]] @ $86.

Instead of buying into the bounce, I am covering some of my shorts, via selling [[FXP]], [[EEV]] and a few others.

In short, degenerate OTB guys are trying to catch an emergency Fed rate cut early, buying now. These fat losers think they will sell on Friday, then proceed to buy a new car or boat over the weekend.

Well, I got news for you, fuckface, “The Fly” already bought that boat. It’s mine.

As you can see, oil is breaking down here, dragging lower big-stupid oil stocks. With my money, I will press my bets in [[DUG]] and buy more. I feel oil is on the other side of the mountain now and will soon afflict great damage to those who are long [[XOM]], [[CVX]]— and other big stupid oil companies.

Keep in mind, if the Fed doesn’t cut by Friday, down we go again.

NOTE: With oil knifing lower, [[DCR]] is looking “gangster good.”