18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
19,896 Blog Posts

Tough Spot for LongTARDS — The Ark Floats

TLT is nearing $147. You know what the means, motherfucker? It means shit is popping off in Fed land — people getting their whigs pushed back and BTFO.

Look at what the fucking NY Fed is posting on Twitter. These people are fucking morons.

So I got to thinking — maybe nothing is going to happen. Maybe this market will do a whole lot of nothing. Under those conditions, you might as well raise cash, hedge a little, and drink gimlets until Labor Day.

I am moving now, so I can’t drink too much. But I will partake in a gimlet or two.

Truth be told, this set up is confusing. LongTARDS will always buy until their faces get blow off clean. I am of the inclination that gold is the only asset worth buying all the time. Stocks are, for lack of a better word, dead. They have shot their load and are now coasting.

Worst case: NVDA misses earnings and the semis COLLAPSE tomorrow.

Best case: Trump tweets something wonderful and we blast off.

We are oversold and we can rally a solid 300 from here. Or, judging by the technicals, rates, and commodities, we can break lower and test the June lows — about 5% lower. If that happened, would it be the end of the world?


Chill the fuck out and enjoy the scenery.

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Not a Good Look For Stocks

I was hoping for a clean break lower after the initial incline, in order to buy more. Instead, we have a milquetoast flat consolidation day after a fucking meltdown. This is not exactly what I wanted to see. I’m afraid that if we do not flush out today, we can and will flush out tomorrow.

Two scenarios work for me.

1. Nasdaq regains balance and gaps up 75 points from here.
2. Nasdaq flushes out and loses 75 points from here.

A flat close makes me want to raise more cash.

It should be worth noting, it’s entirely possible nothing too spectacular is on the horizon, just more hemming and hawing as summer winds down. I would not anticipate anything too large on the upside or downside during August.

That being said, positions should still be watched closely and 10% stop obeyed.

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Madoff Whistleblower Warns of The Great $GE Scam

Shares of GE are getting flexed on like a motherfucker — after some Greek bastard issued a report — which has credence since he was one of the faggots who warned about Bernie.

General Electric shares fall after Madoff whistleblower Harry Markopolos targets the conglomerate in a new report, calling it “a bigger fraud than Enron.”

The 175-page report claims GE was hiding the depths of its financial problems and would need to significantly raise its insurance reserves. It also points out alleged accounting issues with its oil and gas unit.

“My team has spent the past 7 months analyzing GE’s accounting and we believe the $38 Billion in fraud we’ve come across is merely the tip of the iceberg,” Markopolos says in the report.

Markopolos says he has given the report to securities regulators and that certain information he has uncovered was given to law enforcement only, and is not in the public report.

Everyone knew about GE and their underfunded pensions and how fucked their energy division is, yet no one cared until some fucked face named Harry stepped into the fray. Whatever.

Shares are barreling lower, but junk bonds are unaffected. During this market, GE is our Lehman, the proverbial canary in the coal mine. Lots of debt. Lots of liabilities. Very little chance of surviving.

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Cramer: ‘This is Not 2008’

If you’re thinking we will soon be entreated to a 2008, once every 100 years decline — you’re wrong. While the bubble is frothy and filled with air, there are none of the signs of meltdown now like there was in 2008. Cramer is making some obvious points here.

CNBC’s Jim Cramer says Wall Street should not assume a recession is on the horizon.

This time around, he argues, it’s not concern over consumer confidence, credit or derivatives that’s causing markets to fall.

Cramer cites former Fed Janet Yellen who said the yield curve inversion as a recession indicator appears different this time.

Remember what 2008 was all about. Absolute homeless people buying $800,000 homes with HELOCs attached, getting BTFO when Greenspan hiked rates. Had Greenie kept rates low, that homeless dude’s house would’ve been worth $1.5m today. Instead, Joe Blow from the sanitation department bought it.

Housing is the biggest risk to the system. Everything else can be handled and dealt with.

Markets jumped off at the open and are now melting the fuck down. This is typical and customary after large decline.

My best guess is for flush out if we go negative, followed by a bounce. Let’s see how it plays.

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Markets slides, Trump tosses Powell undertone bus. What a time to be alive.

Smells like fear.

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Women should not participate in this sort of fucked up tape. I repeat, this is not a market for the fair sex. Leave this to the disheveled and 5 o’clock shadow man, who has nothing to lose but his pride, dignity and all of his money.

There’s nothing to analyze here. Either you buy now betting for a morning dip, or you sell short, hoping the collapse is here and will rip off the face of President Trump.

Which do you think will occur? I can tell you how I’m playing this, but you’d need to be an Exodus member. So sorry.

I will tell you that I kicked out my FAZ position into this melee if that helps at all.


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It’s over bull-tards. It’s over.

Do not place orders, but instead CANCEL THEM. I entreat you to remind yourselves that “The Fly” is a superior trader and person in every way possible.

It’s over.

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Apologies for the tardiness. I was up past 5am packing my house for the big move and hadn’t realized how much shit I had accumulated — truly disgusting and appalling. I am never going to buy anything again. I wish I could say the same for my wife, who simply cannot help herself and must hoard all of the items from all of the stores. When does it end? Does it ever?

Markets are careening lower and you’re all on the edge of your seats, eagerly awaiting my assessment. It’s very grim.

The 10yr is at 1.58%, down 9bps.

Oil is crashing, down 4%.

Gold is spiking, just like I said it would.

Stocks are down more than 500.

Time to seek safer harbors.

“The U.S. equity market is on borrowed time after the yield curve inverts,” wrote Bank of America technical strategist Stephen Suttmeier.

Yesterday I bought CRWD for an overnight hundred dollar roll trade. I do not even know how it opened up — since I was deep into REM sleep. I fucked up and ended selling it for a 5% loss. It was an overnight trade, so rules are rules — you sell no matter the outcome. It does not become an investment — just because it’s down. I lost, so I move on.

I still have a triple inverse hedge on the books, so that’s cushioning my decline — plus all of that fucking gold too. Damn I’m good.

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This is who I am and you’re nothing.

Early this morning after seeing the market blast the fuck off, I stepped in and bought some China-coms, knowing sloppy jalopy traders in the US would ebb into them and chase them higher. The thousand strong man militia inside Exodus enjoyed these alerts, unlike the lot of you miscreants.

I bought JD and BZUN, amongst others. I just sold JD and BZUN for a 4.74% and 3.7% profit, respectively.

Others try to duplicate my success, but fall woefully short.

In summary of today’s trades:

JD +4.74%. (day trade)
BZUN +3.7% (day trade)
MDLA +7.43% (overnighter)

Fly wins again.

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The Yield Curve Has Inverted; Recession is All But a Foregone Conclusion Now

For the past year, morons have been talking about yield curve inversion for fucked up time frames — but not to do with 2s and 10s aka the only yield spread that counts. Well here we are — INVERSION DAY — and faggots are out strong buying stocks with their cocks.

Bear in mind, INVERSION has predicted the last 7 recessions without flaw.

By my math, by next year this time you will be dying off the vine, thirsting for more QE dick. Today is a grande day for stocks — but it will not last!

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