18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
18,705 Blog Posts

Are you Frightened By This Dip?

I’m not sensing any panic in markets and the people I know who trade are almost all united in their allegiance to the Order of the Bull market. I’m not obnoxious to the point that this should get me nervous. There are some who believe the sheep always lead to slaughter. Again, obnoxious. I’m more of the belief the sheep will lead to where the food is hidden. Follow the sheep and BAAAAH like a sheep, and then head out when the wolves come.

Are the wolves coming?

I think if markets drop hard next week we’ll be entreated to a lot of heart attacks amongst the pledged elite in the bull camp. Many will lose faith and start to become afraid of October and what it has meant to markets in the past. I do believe next week is a pivotal moment for stocks in the interim, a make or break time for stocks that could lead to a very healthy bounce and continuation of the rally, or a complete panic, led by a mania and throngs of traders spilling out of their high valuation positions in search of safe haven.

You’d be wise to adhere to your stops.

At this stage of my blogging career, the last man standing in finance blogs who doesn’t cavort the globe atop a bicycle, if you’re not selling positions after they’ve gone down 10%, I’ve failed you. Either that or you’re an idiot. And please, do not take offense when I call you an idiot. You really don’t have a choice in the matter. We’re all born into what we are. Some of us are brilliant artisans and scientists, and others are plain old idiots who resort to criminal acts of depravity for leisure. Life isn’t fair sometimes and we don’t choose to be here. We’re all sort of tossed out into the world and told we could be President if we wanted to. Truth is, none of that is true. But if we’re wise enough to know our limitations and to learn by shadowing others who are both smart and decent, we might just make life interesting enough and profitable enough to be worthy of a legacy.

Enough shit-talking. Futures will mean nothing tonight. Head on over to Exodus and be sure to watch the opening hour of trade with us. We’ll figure it out.

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Now is Not the Time to Panic — HODL Your Positions

I’m drinking some bullet proof coffee now, not for its ‘medicinal values’, but because I’m attempting to kill myself via clogged arteries. I’m playing the long game and it should be fun and delicious.


So the market corrected last week and now you don’t know what to do. Let’s put some perspective on this dip. The drop from the top is roughly 5%. Some of the higher multiple stocks have fallen more, many dropping 10-20%. But this is standard for any correction.

My Bubble Basket, filled with the highest valuation growth names, is down 6% the past two weeks.

And stocks with growth rates greater than 15% have retreated by 4.8% the past month.

The Exodus Quant shed 1% last month, while the broader indices gained ~0.7%.

Over in Exodus, I doubled down in ZEN towards the end of the session and have 25% cash in my trading account. We are also, in fact, oversold. Here is the data for this signal. Note how the efficiency of this signal increases with number of days held. By the end of next week, we should, in earnest, be back in the good graces of speculators and markets swimming again in gains.

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Markets Might Be Bottoming Out Here — But Stops Still Need to Be Respected

Today I bought SOXL and I’m down a fast $12. I was forced to sell BL and EB — because they breached my 10% loss threshold. I also sold BLRX for a 40% profit — because the catalyst no longer exists. I sold BAND, fortunately, for a 5.2% gain. And, lastly, I sold WK — for breakeven, just because I no longer desired to hold a second tier name.

All of this culminated to raising 30% cash, in an account that is built like an automated fucking machine — designed for pleasure and, dare I say, ejaculatory wins. Because of this indelible fact, I am often reminded of the occasions when I pressed down hard on the gas into similar tapes and was shredded and cracked asunder, cock chopped off and head used to be punched by midgets in clown uniforms. For the love of all that is mighty and just, I am Le Fly and my mission here is to outstrip and to crush and to definitively out-man those in my realm, an exalted manner passed on thru the generations — a bloodline that is both violent and wise — filled with rampant alcoholism, murderers, and genius.

I stand before you a man of extreme confidence — placed into this situation to tell you that we are, in fact, oversold, according to the intelligence from Exodus — on a historical basis — dating back to 2009. What this means for you, the unwashed laymen, is that this is a ***RARE EVENT**, one that was last enjoyed on 4/2/18 and produced an immediate shock to the upside in markets. Whether or not history repeats itself is entirely immaterial. I step into the arena, filled with bravery and verve, because it is the only way I know how to behave. My losses are reminders of my discipline and my gains my eloquence. You’re reading this now — most likely because you’re unsure. Markets are testing your mettle and you lack the gumption, or, dare I say, the eternal fortitude to cast a light upon the darkness, leaving you in an oblique state of disarray. Do not fear, Le Fly is here, immortal in both body and spirit, presiding over you in a most charitable way.

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I stepped in this morning and bought SPY and SOXL. On the SOXL, that was done in my active account, where I take outsized risk, so naturally I’m down a fast $7 from my basis. Truth is, I’m rather complacent about this move lower. I’m not buying the 3.22% 10yr as cause for legitimate concern. I’ll have you know, markets, on occasion, tend to sled thru rough patches every now and then. Without pain, there can be no joy, and vice versa.

So what is a man to do who is already long and enduring losses?

You still must abide by your stop losses, even if that means you miss the upturn. I’m very sorry to tell you this, but the future is not guaranteed and although I believe this time is no different from the past, I can be wrong. I’ve been wrong before and my biggest losses are rooted in stubbornness.

Stop losses are set at 10%. The mood should be optimistic, yet measured. Let’s not make a big deal about a Friday afternoon sell off — heading into a banking holiday. It won’t be long before we’re celebrating our gains amidst candied treats and carved pumpkins, eagerly planning for Thanksgiving.

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How Oversold Are SAAS Stocks Now?

More or less, the SAAS sector is down in the order of 10% the past month, a phantom correction in an otherwise sanguine tape. The technical damage, however, is at 52 week highs.

What does that shit mean?

Exodus measures stress points in stocks and sectors. Right now, SAASFAGS are stressed AF, literally dying now. So, we can conclude two things from this signal.

1. This time is different and down we go.
2. This time isn’t different. Buy the dips.

Top picks: HUBS, ZEN, BL, TEAM, TWLO

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I’ve had enough of this bullshit. Unemployment is at the lowest since 1969. America is great again and Brett Kavanaugh is a force of nature that cannot be stymied.

Stocks will head higher, rest assured. A wise man is one who doesn’t shrink from a challenge and instead barrels into danger with a hand filled with pinless grenades, naked and angry. I happen to be such a person and will be exercising my god given rights to purchase stock at the open.

Since this is a holiday affair, the Exodus OS signal being flagged and all, I will do with via an index.

More on this later. Should markets sell off, consider yourselves exceedingly fortunate to be offered an opportunity as grande as this.

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Yale’s Endowment Manager Allocated into Cryptos

While this might seem like a meaningless side addendum in a much larger bear market for cryptos, it might just turn out to be important. Swensen isn’t a man to be trifled with and his performance at Yale is second to none.

David Swensen, who’s known as Yale’s ‘Warren Buffett’ because of his investing success with the university’s endowment, is making his first big bets on cryptocurrency following the recent swoon in the price of bitcoin and other digital currencies.

Swensen, who is chief investment officer of Yale’s $29.4 billion endowment, has invested in two venture funds dedicated to cryptocurrency, according to people familiar with the matter.

Swensen’s team invested in Andreessen Horowitz’s inaugural $300 million crypto fund, which closed in June, said the sources, who declined to be named because the investment was confidential. It also backed Paradigm, a new blockchain and cryptocurrency-focused fund started by Coinbase co-founder Fred Ehrsam and former Sequoia Capital partner Matt Huang, the people said.

Is BTC a buy? Who the fuck knows. If 2017 was the 2000 in dot com terms, the term will come, in earnest, around 2020. Perhaps now is a good time to begin accumulating, now that everyone things BTC is a joke.

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***RARE FLAG*** Exodus Overall System Flagging Oversold — HIGH PROBABILITY WINSHIP ALERT

Lots of fucking bells and whistles rang out today. It was like a holiday inside Exodus — as we were entreated to a ***RARE FLAG*** event, as the whole system flagged oversold, an implication of grandiose importance.

Firstly, what does this even mean?

We measure stress points in the market and then analyze human behavior and how people respond to them. Simple. Using lots of data and AI, I am able to predict pivot points in the market with increasing degrees of alacrity.

Back in the olde days, we were entreated to 1-2 of these per month. Back in 2012, I got very rich off them, live blogging myself trading $100k into $1m. Nowadays, I sustain myself on highly concentrated cannabis portfolios. We all have our vices. Mines is risk acceptance.

Here we are OVERSOLD — fuckers. Enjoy the show.

And here was the last time this happened. Zoom in and see the immediate spike in SPY.


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Rumors are swirling about BREW and a possible CBD beer. How about this for confidence?

Considering this company is based in the heatheness Oregon, I’d be willing to cut off my testicles if this company did not produce a CBD beer. As a matter of fact, go conduct a cursory google search and read some of the news. You can see for yourself the company has confirmed interest.

As for the general market, wait for a gush lower tomorrow and then BUY THE FUCKING DIPS.

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BIG ASS LOSSES (BALs) MOUNT — JP Morgan Downgrades China — Cites Full Blown Trade War

It’s over, fuckers. Apparently, Trump really did it this time. China got caught open handed by Bloomberg, spying on us via Amazon and Apple, so now everything is coming to a head.

Markets are in free fall mode and it doesn’t help that JP Morgan just downgraded the dog eating nation of China, citing a full blown trade war.

J.P. Morgan is getting less optimistic about the trade conflict between the U.S. and China.

The firm lowered its rating for Chinese equities to neutral from overweight, predicting the escalating trade war between the countries will affect China’s economy next year.

“A full-blown trade war becomes our new base case scenario for 2019,” emerging market strategist Pedro Martins Junior said in a note to clients Wednesday. “There is no clear sign of mitigating confrontation between China and the US in the near term.”

On Monday, White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said discussions with China over trade aren’t progressing.

The White House’s latest tariffs of 10 percent on $200 billion of imports from China took effect last week. President Donald Trump, in a Sept. 17 statement, said the tariffs would rise to 25 percent on Jan. 1.

Junior said China’s GDP growth could be negatively impacted by 1 percentage point from the latest round of announced tariffs, assuming it “does not take countermeasures.”

“Higher tariffs are squeezing Chinese manufacturing’s profit margin, reducing the investment incentive and hiring, which would then drag on consumption via reduced income,” he said.

Analyzing risk, I can tell you that it’s a morbid tale today. My Bubble Basket of high multiple stocks are down more than 3.5%.

I took today’s sell off to raise cash by selling ROST, UBNT, and XON. I am holding the bulk of positions and only sold these in order to be able to play an Exodus oversold, should it materialize. I’ll likely buy SPY with 20% of my assets for a duration of 10 days.

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