18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,553 Blog Posts

Exodus Overbought Signal is Now Our Most Reliable Algorithm

In the past, the mean reversion oversold signal was often lauded in these halls as the next great big dick. In recent years, due to market calamities, that signal has been going through courrections. It’s not the algorithms fault. After all, black swan events are by definition UNFORESEEN. So now the algos are simply adjusting to the new normal and identifying stress points as we go. But the overbought signal is UNDISTURBED, thanks to a decade plus of wanton degeneracy in this American bull market.

But we do not use this signal for mean reversion — since markets ripping higher rarely, if ever, pause. Instead, I use it as a momentum indicator, the green light that says “SHORTS ARE ON THE RUN, EXECUTE THEM.”

We just had one the other day and I’d like to illuminate the fact that it is hitting a 83% win rate now for 5 days holds.

Could you fashion this on your own without having to choke up the debilitating cost of $59 per mo? Not in a thousand years can you reverse engineer it. Also, and it’s worth noting, if you cannot invest $500 per annum in your investment career, you have no business in the market. FUCK OFF.

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POOF! Magic: Fly Wins Again

I took some money and multiplied it. This is my haul from yesterday.

RRGB +18.6%
BLMN +15%
HA +15.6%
SIG +14.1%
KIM +7.3%
ELF +3.6%
LB +1.6%

It’s not all that hard to make outrageous returns when the NASDAQ is +250 I suppose my best attribute is knowing when to push the envelope. I moved it all to cash, presently holding bankrupt DO, which is higher by 60% today, some tinned foil, and my tera-cap short — which I double down on — 80% cash.

WTI is +32% today, so there’s always that. Wacky market and I hope you’re not trying to fish on your own anymore. Just sit down and eat the fucking fish I serve already. Exodus is still accepting new members, which I may need to halt until I launch Stocklabs due to the pressure being applied to the servers.

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Long small caps, short tera caps.

I closed out the session 50% cash, ending the day with a flurry of buys — the very worst stocks money can buy. If you doubt my market hand and excellence, I implore you to fade me. Bet against me and end up on the ass-end of the soup line.


Today’s booked trades, all overnighters.

AMC +23%
SKT +15.8%
KSS +13%
MITT +11%
MGM +3.9%
NYMT +1.9%
GOOS +1.3%

In case you still want to talk shit from the Peanut Gallery of obscurity, here are my last 25 trades.

GUSH – wash
(FAZ -3.8%)
PE +12.9%
TECL +3.6%
SQ +2.5%
KL +5.6%
AU +5.1%
BYND +2.7%
LPI +31.5%
NUGT +3%
RIOT +9.7%
(FAZ -3.4%)
(TZA -6%)
CAR +9.6%
NMRK +11.7%
FL +6.9%
DRH +2.5%
(BORR -6.5%)
AMC +23%
SKT +15.8%
KSS +13%
MITT +11%
MGM +3.9%
NYMT +1.9%
GOOS +1.3%

THAT’S WHO I AM and you’re nothing. Good Father? Fuck you — go home and play with your kids.

You can also buy some freshly minted iBC TRUCKER HATS, for those interested in HIGH FASHION. It’s important for all of you to wear our GARB whilst watering the lawn or partaking in random jostling with the neighbors, in order to spread my brand of propaganda. Of course I do this with a warm and kind and most generous heart, but sometimes I must scold you and perform acts of magic to awe the audience back into compliance. This is one of those occasions, as I feel nothing can stop me and I am quite literally impervious to market losses. My benevolence is without boundaries.

Good Day.

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Small Caps Lead the Way; Talk Shit and Get Hit

The Russell is higher by more than 2%, but mega caps are down. Some of you like to TALK SHIT because you’re soft and weak — fragile little bitches. I will tell you this now — trade better than me and then talk shit. You can post your ideas in the comments section below. My trades are posted and time stamped inside Exodus. We can do this every single day for as long as I live and you will never beat me. You’re mediocre men, at best, and can do nothing but gawk and sneer.

I will clue you in on something in today’s tape — the small crappers are running. Yes indeed. All you have to do is look into areas of the market hardest hit and position for greatness. The only setback to this stratagem is the fact it’s 1:45pm and markets can dive lower of the next hour of trade. Nevertheless, if this was 3:30pm, I’d have 10 stocks to buy now for an opening rip tomorrow.

I only talk shit because I can back it up. You can easily prove me wrong by fact checking me. I’m quite public with my ideas.

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The Master Fisherman’s Catch This Morning

Yesterday I endured an extinction level event with DO, having filed bankruptcy and all. I was in it from Friday and endured the pangs of that singular misery. I see it’s trading on the PINKS today at 0.16 — not a very kind and generous price might I add. But instead of FOLDING and acting like a bitch, I STEELED myself and went back out into the rocky sea and braved the winds and came back with some fucking fish.

Here was my catch. All positions are equal weighted, 5% of portfolio a piece.

AMC +23%
SKT +15.8%
KSS +13%
MITT +11%
MGM +3.9%
NYMT +1.9%
GOOS +1.3%

Understand something, that was easy as a boy swinging in the park for me — a simple gesture from me to you that the market isn’t difficult to navigate. You just need to have some balls, discipline, and some capital to play in it. I am now 90% cash, taking it easy — might go back out into the sea later on today for more fish.

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The Economy Has Collapsed; Stocks Soar

Here are some relevant headlines for you to peruse as you think about markets racing towards RECORD HIGHS.

This is just a morsel of the relevant news out there today, highlighting an indelible and horrific fact: the global economy is in a tailspin. US food supplies are now at risk of STARVING out KETO-FAGS and the idea that COVID-19 has been defeated is pure folly. Nevertheless, we must get on with business and the flu season, the traditional flu season, is waning, leaving more beds available for Coronavirus patients. We will be re-opening the economy soon and it’s because of that optimism do we see stocks rallying towards new highs. It does not make sense and if you try to reconcile it with reasons, you will go mad.

I closed the session with 55% cash, and a series of degenerate long bets rooted in illogic. Empty ghost theaters. Barren department stores. Dystopian themed casinos, etc., etc.

Good day.

The Dow closed higher by 365, WTI -23% under $13.

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Oil Rendered Worthless; Stocks Soar

I’m over the DO debacle and ready to get back to work. I bought 5 stocks this afternoon, some in REITs, some in mortgage — maybe a retailer and a casino. Who knows? The point being, I am doing the exact opposite of what my instincts tell me to do — The Costanza Trade. We’ve all been there, doing the complete opposite because logic has been suspended, making a fortune in the process. In this instance, oil is down 22% for the day to $13 and markets are +300 like NO BIG FUCKING DEAL. The buying is so obscene, many oil stocks are up too.

How do we render such madness?

We don’t and we do not get mad at it.

Capitalism as we knew it never existed. The facade of free markets was exactly that, a marketing ploy to promote Empire America. What we have here is clear to see and it’s ugly and absurd. But why should I rebel and sell stocks short, only to harm myself?

I’ll play along, as long as I can, sashaying (no homo) in and out of stocks like a fucking Space Alien Magician (SAM), making profits and friends along the way.

I’m confident the market will run higher into the close. Be careful with your idiot short positions.

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BOGGED IN $DO — Moved to Cash

Since DO is HALTED FOR FUCKING TRADE, I am unable to sell it. This is like one of those fairy tales when the greedy bear stuck his paw in the honey pot one too many times and it got cut off for him. While the loss in DO is very manageable, for it was a standard 5% position, it’s disheartening to have it happen and equally disheartening to have it fucking halted all day without given the chance to trade out of it.

That being said, I imagine it will open DOWN 60% — which is a 300bps hit for me.

Meanwhile I liquidated everything else but one stock in my portfolio — now 90% cash.

$CAR +9.6%
$NMRK +11.7%
$FL +6.9%
$DRH +2.5%
($BORR -6.5%)

After everything is said and done, given today’s market gains, I stand to lose less than 2% today. See pal, I am even winning while losing. I’ll make that 2% up real quick and much much more and then DRIVE this gravity hammer into the heads of ALL oil longs in America. I hate you and your wanton greed is infectious and you should be stopped.

I am through with overnight oil holds, since they’re all subject to a surprise chapter 11. Plus anyway, the market is long in the tooth now and destined for the junkyard.

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Futures Open Soft; We’re Not Set in Reality Yet

Looks like I will open for trade tomorrow FUCKED — since I have a 5% position in DO and she just filed for bankruptcy. WLL filed for bankruptcy and is up 350% since then; but usually a filing is met with some initial selling before the details are hashed out. It seems to me, this bankruptcy might be the one to open the floodgates to a tsunami of filings in the weeks to come — rendering the oil patch uninvestable.

With bankruptcies, you will see credit downgrades and mark downs at banks. We are still trading in fantasy land and I expect traders to buy dips until reality starts to seep in.

When should that happen?

About a month after the global economy re-opens we should start to get some estimates for revenues and earnings. Without imposing my bias, I think it’s fair to say the balance of 2020 will be decided by the after-shocks of COVID-19 and if it re-emerges following the end of quarantine. The next drop will be large and catch many by surprise.

Presently, we are -35 NASDAQS now and crude is stable at $16.55. I read a note by Goldman today which predicted another rout in WTI futures, possibly under $0. I also read that Banks of China clients took more than a $1b hit on the negative $37 WTI drama of two weeks ago.

Whatever happens tomorrow, I enter the day at 65% cash, which provides me with a lot go options — should I need to average down and implement a Martingale Stratagem to escape a poorly placed trade. I suspect markets will want to trade higher, but will eventually sink into the pits of hell. I closed out my shorts Friday because of the collapse in the VIX, suggestive that investors are normalizing. This of course means the next crash will catch many off-guard again. I of course do not know when it will happen, only that is will happen some time in 2020.

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Carl Icahn Discusses Markets, His CMBX 6 Short Position

I’ll spare you my swing trader stratagems for a day and present you with a must watch interview from 84 year old, legendary, Carl “fuck you give me three seats on your board” Icahn.

ZH covered this in detail, essentially what we’re talking about here is the complete destruction of the retail mall in America.

It’s Carl vs. Ackman — the final battle.

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