iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,011 Blog Posts

THE BIRTH OF THE PETROL-BITCOIN, PETROL-GOLD TRADE IS HERE

Two major news items today that might have a profound effect on markets.

RUSSIA WILL ALLOW “UNFRIENDLY COUNTRIES” TO PAY FOR NATURAL GAS IN GOLD

RUSSIA WILL ALLOW “FRIENDLY COUNTRIES” TO PAY FOR NATURAL GAS IN BITCOIN

For decades the Unites Steaks has worked tirelessly through various methods to achieve dominance via the petrol-dollar — promoting “Pax Americana” around the world and demand for dollars. Due to sanctions applied to Russia, for the first time ever — this convenience is threatened.

Going forward, Russia will only accept payment in Rubles or Gold for enemies and for friends — Bitcoin. By normalizing this, one could see how this might catch on into other areas of trade and/or nations who are against the dollar being so dominant at a time when it’s being weaponized to inflict damage to people.

The other news item worth thinking about is this:

MACRON: THE SITUATION WILL BE EVEN WORSE IN 12 TO 18 MONTHS AS UKRAINE CANNOT SOW

If you thought food supplies were scarce now and expensive, wait until you see where they are in 18 months, following months of war in Ukraine that prevented sowing of crops. We could possibly see by next year Russia occupying Ukraine and also possessing Europe’s nuts in their hands via control of 40% of the worldwide wheat and fertilizer supply.

As a result, stocks like MOS, NTR, CF, BG are mandatory buys, in my opinion.

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Markets Are Trending Up — What’s Next?

In classic Wall Street fashion, we are climbing all of the walls of worry at once. The QQQ is now almost up 3% for March, after being deballed in both Jan and Feb. The stark reversals in March aren’t without reason. It is widely believed now the economy is doing fine, in spite of the inflationary headwinds. People are independently wealthy and can afford any price, in our decadent/degenerate country.

That is my best guess on what might play out, should we continue to trend higher. Of course, all of this could change by 3pm with one bad headline. What the market is saying, more or less, is Russia has lost and do not pose a serious threat to the west. Yesterday the market was panicked about the specter of European gas shortages. Basically, we’re winging it. But the trend is up. More than that, for the first time in a long time, day trading is fun and gains are outsized. Just a short while ago, I’d be content with 1-2% gains on a day trade; now the bands have widened considerably and have been enjoying double digit returns on an intra day basis. It’s been so good, I feel as if money could be made almost at will.

Today’s trends are mixed, some weakness in oils, strength in ag, ag sciences, electric cars, mixed on Chinese burritos, strong on crypto miners, with an emphasis on small cap volume breakouts, suggestive that risk is on.

Nevertheless, I’m holding a UVXY hedge just in case.

 

 

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California to Pay Car Owners $400 Per Car Due to Putin’s Invasion of Ukraine; Nickel Limit Up Again

In an effort to assuage the masses, Gov. Newsom is proposing giving residents up to $800 per month in order to pay for their gas, citing Putin as the prime reason as to why gas prices are sky high. Ironically, it is exactly programs like this that will continue to denigrate the purchasing power of the dollar, in an never-ending, self-consuming, cycle of inflation that will decapitate purchasing power.

“We’re taking immediate action to get money directly into the pockets of Californians who are facing higher gas prices as a direct result of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine,” Newsom.

Yesterday Nickel was “limit up” on the LME, so the exchange decided to cancel the entire trading day — rending all trades “null and void.”

And Nickel is limit up again today, +20%.

We have not heard what the LME intends to do about this sharp increase in the price of nickel again. One could only assume some very powerful people are short and will request the LME cast all trades today as “null and void” again, giving the cabal a chance of reset and play the game again tomorrow.

Russia accounts for roughly 10% of worldwide nickel supply.

UPDATE: THE LME CANCELS ALL TRADES AS ‘NULL AND VOID’ FOR SECOND SESSION IN A ROW.

LME SAYS SECOND RING SESSION ON MARCH 24 IN NICKEL WILL BE DEEMED A DISRUPTED SESSION AND ALL AGREED TRADES DURING THIS SESSION WILL BE NULL AND VOID

Here are some other headlines.

GERMAN COALITION PARTIES SHUT DOWN OF COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS CAN BE SUSPENDED

U.S. TREASURY SAYS GOLD-RELATED TRANSACTIONS INVOLVING RUSSIA MAY BE SANCTIONABLE UNDER U.S. AUTHORITIES

UKRAINE DEFENCE MINISTRY SAYS RUSSIA IS SENDING MORE MILITARY EQUIPMENT TO BELARUS TO BOOST EFFORT TO SEIZE KYIV

RUSSIA MOVE TO RUBLES FOR GAS WOULD BE SECURITY THREAT: BIROL

UKRAINE PRESIDENT TELLS NATO UKRAINE NEEDS FIGHTER JETS, TANKS, BETTER AIR DEFENCE AND ANTI-SHIP WEAPONS

OLDER PEOPLE MAY NEED ANNUAL COVID BOOSTERS, MODERNA CEO SAYS

RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY: RUSSIA WILL RETALIATE OVER POLAND’S DECISION TO EXPEL RUSSIAN DIPLOMATS.

UKRAINE CALLS EU COUNTRIES TO NOT PAY RUSSIA IN RUBLES FOR GAS

GERMANY TO SEND 2000 ANTI-TANK WEAPONS TO UKRAINE, UK TO SUPPLY 6000 MISSILES – PRESSTV

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WORLDWIDE SUPPLY OF NEON DISRUPTED DUE TO UKRAINIAN WAR

Not only will worldwide supplies of wheat, fertilizer, nickel, aluminum, gas and oil be short supply due to Russian sanctions —- so will semiconductors due to a shortage of neon gas produced by Ukraine. That’s right, little Ukraine owns this market and covers nearly 50% of worldwide supplies.

Some 45%-54% of the world’s semiconductor grade neon, critical for the lasers used to make chips, comes from two Ukrainian companies, Ingas and Cryoin, according to Reuters calculations based on figures from the companies and market research firm Techcet. Global neon consumption for chip production reached about 540 metric tons last year, Techcet estimates.

The financial ramifications of economic warfare with Russia is going to be felt by May.

The stoppage casts a cloud over the worldwide output of chips, already in short supply after the coronavirus pandemic drove up demand for cell phones, laptops and later cars, forcing some firms to scale back production.

While estimates vary widely about the amount of neon stocks chipmakers keep on hand, production could take a hit if the conflict drags on, according to Angelo Zino, an analyst at CFRA.

“If stockpiles are depleted by April and chipmakers don’t have orders locked up in other regions of the world, it likely means further constraints for the broader supply chain and inability to manufacture the end-product for many key customers,” he said.

Before the invasion, Ingas produced 15,000 to 20,000 cubic meters of neon per month for customers in Taiwan, Korea, China, the United States and Germany, with about 75% going to the chip industry, Nikolay Avdzhy, the company’s chief commercial officer, said in an email to Reuters.

In case you’re concerned about inflation, do not worry the state of California is going to pay $400 per car per month to cover gas expenses . Printing more money is of course the answer to stop inflation in a fucking clown world.

REMINDER: the US currency reserve status is in danger for first time ever. With Russia demanding payment in Rubles for gas, it’s only a matter of time before the demand payment in Rubles for all of their exports. The ramifications of this, coupled with America’s belligerent actions towards China, could be catastrophic for the dollar. My thesis of a black swan event in the dollar has never been more possible than now. We are seeing it happen and will be able to discern the progress of the Petrol-Ruble in the coming days and weeks. If the Ruble gets back down to 75 per dollar, this would be on par with an American defeat from an economic point of view and might cause some serious FX disruptions.

Gold and oil are my best idea hedges, alongside Australian dollars.

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SLAVA iBANKCOIN!

It’s not supposed to be easy. If it was, all of you losers could do it on your own. You tried to do it in 2021 and had fun watching Dave Portnoy eating pizza and losing millions due to of his inexperience in the market. You felt glib and bold and went all in when Chamath showcased his skinny legs. Now look at you — total loser with an account in shambles.

Bull markets come and they go and so do the gurus. But only legitimate market Noblemen are able to survive the bear. The fires are indeed burning bright and I have never been fooled by peace in my entire life. I am always in a state of permanent war and can never be tricked by notions of treaties or even an armistice.

BEHOLD AND FEAST YOUR EYES UPON MY ACCOUNTS — ALL AT RECOURD HIGHS YOU STUPID FUCKING SON OF A BITCHES.

What is this trading account?

My whole life I traded longer term and very rarely did I ever day trade. That changed after I created the volume tools in Stocklabs, so in late 2020 I placed an account worth $100k into action and day traded.

$100k to $600k in two years. I think I’m good at day trading too.

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EUROPE DOESN’T WANT TO PAY IN RUBLES — CITES CONTRACT LAW

Russia is at war with a nation and the west is supporting that nation to wage war and kill Russians. The west seizes all of Russia’s FX reserves, even $100b in gold, and then balk at the idea of Russia demanding payment for gas in Rubles.

What sort of hubris is this?

GERMAN ECONOMY MINISTER HABECK: PAYING FOR GAS IN RUBLES WOULD BREAK CONTRACTS
ITALY NOT INCLINED TO PAY RUBLES FOR RUSSIA GAS: DRAGHI ADVISER
ITALY ECON ADVISER: PAYMENT IN RUBLES WAY TO EXCAPE SANCTIONS

Do they believe Russia should just lay down and roll over — starve to death, permit NATO to takeover Moscow and subjugate their people with CRT classes and gender identity freedoms?

 

Markets are beginning to sour, but nearly reflective of the potential dangers of having the petrol-dollar destroyed. While it’s true, Europe is making arrangements for alternative sources of gas for 2023 — it’s also true they cannot import all of that LNG without incurring immense expenses. One could argue the people of Europe are suffering more than Russians — who now have to deal with the pangs of toxic western culture removed from their airwaves and shopping malls.

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THE RUBLE IS +40% OFF POST UKRAINE WAR LOWS

If the Rubles makes it back to where it was pre-Ukranian war, this will be viewed as a disaster for US policy against Russia and, in my opinion will have a profound effect in both markets and public opinion.

The dollar has only retained its value because of its currency reserve status. Since the war broke out, the US has done everything in its power to punish Russia, via seizures and sanctions. In many respects, these are tantamount to theft, the thievery of another nations gold and coin. We have seized over $400 billion in Russian dollars and gold and while some might view this as deserves, due to Ukraine, the ancillary effects of this form of warfare places immense doubt into the minds of other countries who once viewed western finance as stable and reliable.

This war has proven we are anything but reliable, instead more akin to a cabal.

Now with Europe forces to pay for gas in Rubles, one could expect a shift in sentiment concerning the Ruble and if that translates into a run on the dollar or the Euro — markets are going to get lit up. The markets do not see this yet and were all enjoying ourselves with stocks propelled higher, seemingly immune to the cross-currents. Then again, inflation is double digits, so how valuable is your dollar?

I wanted to emphasis the importance of this Ruble move and possible EXPANSION of Russian commodities for Rubles, which might in fact spread to uranium next.

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PUTIN TO DEMAND PAYMENT FOR GAS IN RUBLES TO HOSTILE COUNTRIES

It looks like Russia figured out a way to support the Ruble: Destroy the US petrol dollar trade by demanding payment for their gas in Rubles. I would expect this scheme to work in the interim, until America figures out how to fuck them. I would also expect Russia to demand this of their other commodities, especially Uranium.

PUTIN: RUSSIA TO DEMAND RUBLE GAS PAYMENTS FROM HOSTILE STATES

PUTIN SAYS WILL CONTINUE GAS SUPPLIES IN LINE WITH CONTRACTS

Putin: “By freezing Russian reserves, the collective West has defaulted on Russia and drawn a line under the reliability of its currencies”

RUSSIA’S LAVROV SAYS SENDING PEACEKEEPERS TO UKRAINE MAY LEAD TO DIRECT CONFRONTATION BETWEEN RUSSIA AND NATO

BELARUS TELLS SOME UKRAINIAN DIPLOMATS TO LEAVE COUNTRY – BELTA NEWS AGENCY

As a result, the Ruble is up more than 4% against the dollar and as you can see has certainly stabilized after mega-spiking to 170 USD.

NASDAQ FUTS are off 115 and WTI is spiking hard +3.4%. There is a variety of bullish chatter being passed along today on oil and, how bereft of Russian supplies, we should see prices careen higher by end of April.

On the war front, the rhetoric is increasing with each day and it’s only a matter of time now before NATO enters the conflict for the sake of Ukraine.

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BEHOLD: STOCKLABS WILL HOST TRADING CONTEST FOR APRIL — $1,000 CASH PRIZE

So you think you can trade you fucking faggots?

Starting 4/1 thru all of April, the good folks at Stocklabs will host a trading contest, using our in house portfolio trading tools. The winner of said contest will receive $1,000 cash.

2nd prize: A picture of a set of steak knives on a mug.

3rd prize: You’re banned.

You get the picture?

If you think you’re any good or want to take a shot at the King in April — stop by and submit your hat into the ring.

For the session, I closed +245bps, long complete shit, even leveraged, with a 15% position in TZA to hedge. I am long a dozen penny stocks, something I haven’t done in quit some time — because I’m +21% for 2022 and can afford to risk.

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DO NOT BE FOOLED BY PEACE; FAMINE LURKS IN THE FUTURE

NEWSFLASH:

UKRAINE SPRING PLANTING AREAS MAY SHRINK 50% FROM PLANNED: RTRS

On top of the shortage coming from Ukraine, Russia is now a pariah state and Europe cannot get any of their wheat or fertilizer. You might not see it now, given the market’s grandeur and ribald nature in today’s tape — but war is inevitable and with it famine.

Here in the states, we will be mostly immune to such pangs. But Africa, Europe and Asia face substantial headwinds and pardon me for reminding you but Russia is going to attack everyone very soon.

That being said, the NASDAQ is +255 and Russia doesn’t want to occupy Ukraine — just destroy it.

The easy to read trend has been to fade the move in tech and redoubled one’s efforts into the commodity space. After a long rich day of trading successfully in tech, this is exactly what I intend to do by the close.

If you’re curious about my day — here is my ledger so far — all available to members of Stocklabs.

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