Incredulous Notion: Are the Semis Overbought Here?

I’m just going to throw this hand grenade into your lap and see what you do with it. Are the semis overbought here?

Let’s look at some stats.

YTD they’re up 56%.

Jan +6.3%
Feb +14%
March +6.1%
April down 4.8%
May +12.3%
June +14.6%

I know it’s a crazy idea since $NVDA, $ARM, $TSM and $MU should go up 5% per day for the rest of our lives, but what if people one day decided to sell? Also, what if one day any of those companies fell into a rut and missed a few quarters. Would that, dare I suggest, lead to a bit of a rout?

After all, the semis are up nearly 30% since May. Don’t you think they’re a little overbought? No?

At any rate, I’m not trying to urinate on your gay parade, since I too own them. I even bought some $TSM in a long term account today, feeeeeeling it might bust loose again and attain legendary status by joining the elite club of companies with market caps over $1t. However, just in case, I am also 12% weighted in $SOXS, short the semis, because God knows they’re deserving of a brief, yet somewhat malevolent, decline. That much I can assure you. There is going to be a most heinous drop soon and none of you are going to like it, lest you’re short of course.

Markets definitely broadened out a bit following the morning malaise, but we once again closed tepid, with 6 consecutive red candles to cap off an otherwise retarded session. The big caps led most of the day and if remained in $DELL $MSFT $AAPL $TSM and $AVGO, you did fine. The issue with this tape, as so many others heading into the summer months, is dispassionate trading, listless even, into an election.

I can’t view this action as bearish since the indices did lift. Breadth was 59% and mostly all places were safe, save solar and biotech.

After selling the morning I stepped back in during the late afternoon and closed +25bps for the session. My highs were +70bps but the final hour of trade stole me money and now I will work towards getting it back.

In other news, the NYC Comptrollers Office is requesting, as shareholders of GME, to have the board disclose the genders, race and qualifications of all members for reasons that could only be RETARDED. The motion was shot down and you really have to think about who is running the NYC Comptrollers office and what their priorities are. We live amongst devils and we shouldn’t have love for them, but pure hatred and that hatred should be used to extricate ourselves from them and their idealogies.

There are a few teracap stocks pushing the indices higher. Other than that, we have a narrow and bifurcated tape.

There is nothing unusual about the largest capped stocks rallying whilst most stocks trade lower. We have been stuck in this universe for over 3 years now. You can look at the performance of the Nasdaq vs the Russell for concrete proof.

My suspicions are this is the result of very large institutional buying: sovereign wealth funds, asset managers, large banks. The retail traders are simply looking at $GME and everyone else is in $BTC or some Solana shit coin. For the most part, trading has been difficult because of this narrowness. I suppose it could’ve been really easy if we all just went all in on $NVDA.

There is notable strength in $TSLA today and that’s a good thing. I’ve been waiting for it to breakout for a long time. It’s one of the cheapest, if not the cheapest, mega tera cap companies traded.

I went to cash this morning, +37bps, waiting for the afternoon to re-enter.

Let me tell you about my Father in Law, since it’s Father’s Day and all.

He never visited my house without bringing large pack of water with him, bread, and other things for our house. In all the years I knew him, not once was his adversarial to me and he always tried to proffer me good advice. There was a period when he was without a car and I’d drive him home from Staten Island to uptown NYC each Sunday and we’d wax poetic about the world, listen to music, and laugh all the way to his home. He was generous and kind, even though he didn’t have much. He was a NYC taxi driver and would give me his last dollar if I asked for it. He was not my Father, but he acted like one and I loved him as if he was my own.

The whole family dined in Cape May, NJ in the summer of 2018 and he got lost trying to exit the restaurant. That’s when we knew something was wrong. After he was diagnosed with incurable brain cancer, I was stunned. The only time I ever saw him cry or complain was when he received the news. Through tears, with his wife and my wife holding him, he said “why me” and that was the only time he lamented. Over the next year, I drove him to the local hospital and accompanied him to radiation and chemo treatments. Each morning I’d make him a keto friendly breakfast, eggs and meats, because we had read that keto diets helped stave off cancer. We did this religiously for a year and during that time he endured two brain surgeries to remove the tumors growing inside him.

He never complained or showed fear and I sometimes wondered if he understood the stakes.

He was the type of man who came to my house, woke up the next morning before anyone was awake, and went to the store to buy fresh bread for the house and then spent the rest of the day sorting out my garage. He loved his daughter and his grandchildren and was proud of all of them and loved them all and showed it. He was masculine yet kind and I miss him.

He died in early 2020 just before the COVID bonanza and I think about him often. I miss our laughs over beers, watching the games, and seeing him watch my children play in the yard. For him, it was probably the best of times cut short by a random and unfortunate ailment. But his memories remain with me and his grandchildren and there is something important in that.

Over 900 stocks traded down more than 3% today. The divergence between the Nasdaq and the Russell continues in the most perverse way possible, with the $IWM hammered for 1.5% crossed against the NASDAQ’s gain of 0.52%. “Markets” were up but 65% of stocks were lower for the session.

Here was the upside breadth for every day this week.

Friday 35%
Thursday 35%
Wednesday 49%
Monday 51%

The game is concentrated to just a few stocks at the highest levels of cap. All other are being sold and if you’re trying to be cute and find “big winners”, you are getting manhandled. ‘Tis was the case with me today, giving back all of the gains I fought so hard for yesterday, losing 172bps for the session and it happened in slow motion, tick by tick, methodical and predictable drips lower. I restarted several times today, trying different approach and all came up flat. I ebbed slowly into $GME and that was perhaps my best approach, now with a 3% sized position down around 1% from my basis.

The market has been this way for me for many months now. I was tempted to short into the close but stopped myself due to a mean reversion call out of Stocklabs. It feels good to short into the hole because of the belief such a hole will turn into a crater and bury everyone in it.

For the week, I ended up making 0.7% in trading, 1% in Quant and breaking even in strategic. It wasn’t a bad week, but just disappointing in that momentum was not enjoyed and today’s flop out bodes poorly for the overall technicals of the market.

My particular pastiche of holdings has netted me a 155bps deficit this morning, in spite of my high IQ and professional acumen. I knew the risks heading into today, barreling headlong into the fires, and now I’ve received my reward.

There are many ways to skin cats, make a living as a trader, stock operator, plunger, if you will. I happened to choose the path of day trader, an extremely rewarding and task filled adventure that never gets tired or boring. I only lose when I am a loser and when I am a loser, well, I deserve to lose. There are times like this when you can lament and complain about the world, about how it’s rigged and how you can’t get a fair shake, gosh darnit. Or, you can take a different approach and say “stop being a bitch, do better you fuck” and try to apply yourself in a manner that will produce wins.

Don’t get me wrong, I fucking hate my life right now with this market fucking with me. But at the end of the day, it’s my fault through my choices. The market had nothing to do with it.

I accept my mediocrity the past few months as part and parcel of operating on a very high level for a very long period of time beforehand and will work towards finding the equanimity I almost always find to get back on track.

Markets really do look and feel like shit. I pared down many of my positions, raised cash to 42% and have 12% short to hedge.

Aspiring financial advisors believe ‘we will knife lower tomorrow’ based upon a medley of ideas and machinations. I do not think so. In fact, I am 130% levered long into tomorrow, with a token position in $GME and a full sized one in $AMC and $RDDT.

I very much want to be part of the cadre of people who bring about the end of western finance. It does not matter what the stock is. If that stock is about ruining Pax Americana’s banking system, in this case via a gaming store stocks, consider me in.

Whilst I might lament along the way and bitch and moan about motives, in the end, you can count on Le Fly to join the rabble rousers. I will even bring my own guillotine and offer my services to pull the lever.

I made 1.75% today and I am rather impressed with myself, even though today’s gains were mostly due to happenstance. Nevertheless, I have been unlucky enough times to warrant a bit of luck and mean reversion, if you will.

I look forward to more gains in the AM.

Ciao.

Even during the best markets you’re gonna have bad days and those days will make you believe that ‘it’s over’ and all hell is about to bust loose. At least that’s how I sometimes view things. There are a million reasons to hate stocks, from the rigged nature of it all, dark pools, algos and hedge funds, politics and war. The list never ends. One day the national debt might matter and perhaps having a brain dead President is bad for the American credit rating; but not now.

This morning I stepped out of stocks and then spent a few hours to curate a buy list, choosing 2 stocks from each of the 8 principle sectors: one with the highest technical score in Stocklabs and the other the lowest. The oils are really oversold here and their scores are the lowest. On the highest end is semis and other tech related names.

At any rate, I’m +186bps into the final hours of trade and don’t have a single Gamestop share to my name and that annoys me. My timing has been dreadful attempting to play the stock. Now I know what some of you are thinking: ‘why bother trading in something like that?’ Because that’s my job, just like it’s your job to attach wheels to cars or wash windows. My sole focus is to extract maximum dollars from the markets. The money I make doing it helps me in my endeavors to do all sorts of shit, most of which is quite nice.

Perhaps I have 30 years left on this fucking planet and then I’m off to haunt people for eternity. Whilst here, I intend to at least attempt at taking what I deserve. We all get what we deserve, good and bad.

Bottom line: we are still bullish on stocks, bearish on Pax Americana. Sometimes it works that way.

I used to attribute my good fortune to “the Gods” when referring to a magical like event in the stock market that made me money. Yesterday I closed the session with a wide swath of stocks, all long, and they just happened to work out this morning.

I had $TSLA, $FNGU, $ANET and many others, all up and with verve. With Tesla, the shareholders voted to dole out Elon’s $56b and that was viewed as good news in order to retain Elon.

I ended up selling everything, including $GME, because I focus on the macro, the bigger picture of the account, and do not lower myself to become depraved and solely focusing on stock stories and drama to fill a hole in my heart or life.

See pal, unlike you I have a life. After this blog, I might go walk the fucking dogs, or perhaps go food shopping with Mrs Fly, where we can cavort, if you will, up and down the aisles picking out overpriced delicacies at Whole Foods.

Into the afternoon, I’m in cash and things will stay that way.

+156bps

Good day

I speak to you today as a victim of a most heinous bear raid on $GME. I can wax poetically about how I crossed the transom this morning into extreme profit, feeling really good, only to succumb later to a session spawned from hades itself. But I won’t.

Let’s just say I got ensnared in shares of $GME several times during the session and took it upon myself to average down every 10% lower. It amuses me that I now have a 3.25% position after starting with just 1% and now have losses of 14% on the whole of it.

It was $GME and the overall hellscape of the market during the Powell testimony that all but wiped out my profits for a moment, as I flirted with breakeven after being up 2%. I did close with gains of 50bps, but they’re in stark contrast to my strategic (long term) account +157bps and my quant +95bps.

The history books will say today was a great session, with both the NASDAQ and Russell up 1.55%. But for those chasing the rally at the apex of it understand how deleterious it really was. The best thing would have been to sell the morning, fuck off, and buy the close.

That was my intent and I did sell all of my stocks at the opening tick for a gain of +198bps; but I was lured back in by this fucking Gamestop and then found myself rooting for it like some Reddit cunt. Diamond handing this thing feels like what jerking off might feel like, but with sandpaper.

I am 100% long into tomorrow and bullish and also stupid for holding $GME. You son of a bitch cunts better rig it higher tomorrow so that I can recoup my losses, otherwise I am going to be very upset and make it a point to harass you for the rest of my life.