18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,399 Blog Posts


We have bounced, but it wasn’t easy. Lots of moving parts. Momo was still absent from much of the day, only ramping into the closing hours. I managed my book frantically, in and out several times, and closed near session highs of 1.75%. My quant was +250bps and YOLO +330bps.

My sense, the trend of value will continue, also commodities. Being long banks, old man stocks and some oil/ag makes sense on a longer term basis. I also do believe the inflation data is in fact TRANSITORY and will dissipate inside of 6 months. Think about it. Nothing has changed other than stimulus checks. That cannot last forever and once it is gone — inflation goes with it.

Long term, betting on lower rates via TLT makes sense to me. But in the meantime the perception of inflation persists, so you can play stocks like OXY, X or MOS until the trend ends.

Old man stocks like CHD, PG, KHC and CL have done well, but will not do well once markets regain its mojo. Also, if rates continue to go up, the risk reward for 3% divvy payers is gone. Perhaps smart money is already betting on lower rates and that’s why we are seeing value stocks run. But I doubt the market is thinking that far ahead.

For next week, I suspect value to continue to outshine; but there’s also a chance the true reflex bounce for momo stocks might happen and soon. I am talking about 20% runs in a day and it’s coming. See CPNG and WISH as two examples of what awaits.

But after the bounce, fade it twice. The tech run is over for 2021 and cannot return unless something materially great happens to the economy.

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Friday is For Winners

Beta trials are ongoing inside Stocklabs right now. Perfect timing, since you get to see in real time the grandeur of our mean reversion algorithms, yet again nail a bottom to the exact day.

It looked dicey for a minute and the day is young and anything can happen. But the writing is on the wall, at least for the day. We have a magnificent rally going and all of the finest stocks are rising, led by our hero Catherine Wood and her ARKK wonderfully managed ETF. Spring has sprung and with it extinguished are the fires of yesterday, malevolent creatures of the night catapulted back into their cities dead.

We will feast upon the flesh and the bones of our enemies and cast long ominous shadows upon their movements and never let them breathe freely.

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Market Bounces — I Pull Out a Loser

Gains were consolidated in mega cap risk averse stocks and banks. I stepped into today long FAS and had some gains early on, until the COLLAPSE in tech happened again and everything ARKK was long got hammered into dust. I ebbed and flowed and trading my heart out. My eyes are bleeding from staring at the screen all day, yet I stand before you a loser — down 15bps.

I had a gain of 45bps at 3:45 and boasted about my market hand, calling myself a “MASTER ACE TRADE (MAT)” only to immediately fault amidst greed on a level that is unprecedented. It was the stock I held and bought into the bell that were of the poorest quality and it swept away my gains like the tooth fairy taking broken calcium from 8 yr old boys at night.

I cannot be optimistic, but instead resign myself to fate. Fate controlled by events yet not know, unforeseen maladies and movements yet to be enjoyed.

Aside from some of the poorly situated stocks I am long, I am mostly in risk averse names now, with a hellish bent on the idea the NASDAQ will jump tomorrow.

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Good news plebs

The CDC director just did a presser. I am soooo exciting I nearly soiled my trousers. She said, and I am paraphrasing a bit here: if you vaccinated yourselves — you are NOW FREE to roam and sashay outside to play or to drink, socialize, have a good time. HOWEVER, for you fucks who did not take the medicine, you are now FUCKED and should remain FULLY DOUBLE MASKED and away from civilized society.

Israeli studies have proven, according to the CDC, the vaccine is super safe and you should all take it.

Moreover, and this goes without saying, BUILD BACK BETTER.

Also, the fucks at Colonial Pipeline just paid an imaginary ransom for a pipeline shutdown that was caused by RUSSIAN HACKERS. Additionally, Israel is set to ground invade Gaza.

And, also, stocks are CAREENING higher. My top idea is to short the VIX. Fuck the VIX and all of the bears in it.

But this blog is in fact OVER-SHADOWED by the COLLAPSE in cryptos due to a DOJ investigation of Binance. Yes, yesterday Musk shit on BTC and today Binance is under arrest. The crypto cabal is falling fast. God willing, I will be able to buy ETH cheaper than I did in May, when June rolls around.

80% long, 20% cash, looking for MOAR.

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If there’s One Thing I am Sure Of…

It’s to sell short volatility. All of you VIX fanboys are out there popping champagne corks into each other’s face, as the VIX popped due to market decline. Everyone got all panicky and the markets collapsed under the pressure of weak hands and people wanting to protect gains.

But what if the zebra is tempted back at the watering hole? What of the poor zebra?

I imagine we’d enjoy a nice MEAN REVERSION bounce, nothing to serious, but enough to cut off the heads and dicks of those betting on VIX going up any further.

Are we really in a 20s VIX era or something more? I cannot think of a reason why we’d panic up into the 30s or 40s, unless of course the entire country was without gasoline for a few months.

Nevertheless, my position on this market is unchanged. We are stuck in mud. It jumped higher at the open and I profited via my FAS position. But now we’re meandering trading OFF THE HIGHS whilst value stocks are at the highs. Not a good sign. Even still, we could have a weak market and also weak VIX.

For now, I remain mostly cash, testing the waters on the long side.

NOTE: Stocklabs trials are underway. If you received an invite and cannot get in, keep trying. We are trying to resolve issues on our end. If you have any issues logging in, email me at Flybroker at gmail.

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Asshole Billionaire Causes BTC Crash

Officially, fuck Elon Musk. This piece of shit announced several months ago Tesla would accept BTC as a form of payment for his stupid cars, that auto-crash into cinderblocks. Lo and below, coming off of MONTHS of Dogecoin buffoonery, Elon comes out with this presser declaring BTC literally evil for causing the polar ice caps to melt the fuck down. MUHHHH bad for the environment. MUHHHHHH fuck BTC.

Instead of having Tesla announce this during regular business hours like normal people would, this fucked for face does it in the twilight hours for MAXIMUM impact, likely due to a feud with one of his other billionaire asshole friends. I would imagine him right now tripping on mushrooms with his bitch wife, tripping out of their minds, laughing at the crashing BTC price action tonight.

If you think this was just Elon finally learning about how BTC is mined — you’re an idiot. This is another example of drugs addling the mind and destroying one’s ability to function with others in a society. Elon Musk is mentally handicapped and should be ousted from Tesla. Then again, I’m just saying all of this because I’m mad, really really mad, because my ETH fortune has decreased.

If, for example, I was in 100% cash during this “crypto crash”, this blog would read somewhat differently.

But for now, FUCK Elon Musk and his piece of shit cars. I hope they blow up in space.

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Inflation Fears Are Utterly Stupid

America is largely a poor country with morons who’ve made some money in their DOGECOIN investments who are in the process of spending it all on luxury items, which will once again consolidate wealth amidst the upper classes and relegate morons back into their housing tenements to sell their Fendi shit on $EBAY at a later date.

We are blessed to have air conditioning and wide open highways to drive fast. Other than that, you’re on your own fucked face. If you choose to spend your money like a misfit fucking moron — that’s on you.

As markets CRESCENDO lower, just know it wipes out the pleb first. The people with money do not concern themselves with the shit stocks you operate in.

Into the latter parts of the day, I called it quits and moved to 100% cash before grabbing an overnight position in FAS, 5% weighting.

Yes, markets looks dreadful and it’s easy to get swept up in the emotions of tumult. But we’ve done this before and I am not worried. Markets ebb and flow, snicker suckers into errant VIX trades during periods of dislocation. Then out of nowhere, BAM! +900 points into your fucking lead head — bullet thru the eye socket.

The inflation narrative is transitory. I mean that seriously. The money doled out will come right back into the system and cause a mass Exodus from inflation hedging trades. The time frame is 3mos. In the meantime, we will trade and sometimes we will trade poorly. You only feeeeel bad when you hold onto those dogs. Let them loose and start anew.

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StockLabs is Launching Directly into the Fires

We sent out the first 1200 invites today and have been met with “technical difficulties” tantamount to disaster. We of course are working steadfastly to fix these issues. I gather you have signed up for the StockLabs Beta and wish to login? Be patient. You have waited a decade for it — you can wait a bit more. Email invites are going out and will continue to go out for several weeks before final launch.

On the issue of the market, complete and total apathy rests upon a burning cinder. Nothing is good or adventurous. We had early momo in oil and then biotech and all have gone to waste. I even traded myself back to green and felt courageous, invincible even, but that too dissipated and I now sit with you, the UNWASHED PLEB, racked good and plenty for -230bps.

The alternative is to stop being dumb and sell short. But that would be too easy — wouldn’t it? It would mean giving into the Orcs and cannibalism and become one of them.

Alas, who knows what the fuck happens next? Jim Biden is hard at work, trying to ruin the stock market and my gas supplies. There is inflation now coming out from our fucking ears, as poor dirty filthy people spend their stimmy checks on new iPhones. This whole gambit is a mess and piece of shit. The idea of the Fed FENDING OFF inflation via hiking rates is laughable. This inflation IS TEMPORARY because stimmy checks aren’t happening anymore.

I suspect we will calm down in the coming days and weeks and learn to embrace summer doldrums, boring, unvarnished, stupid, trading.

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I Hated My Bed, So I Burned It

The bed I made for myself yesterday seemed inviting, up until the point when the market opened and shed light on all of the urine stains on the sheets. I turned my portfolio upside down and replaced many tech stocks with oils — since America is once again enjoying Joe Carter era gas lines. I find it amusing that both solar and alt energy are suffering under Biden, all the while oil and natty is enjoying unparalleled bullish pin action.

Nevertheless, I still have losses of 100bps and this sad story is being shared amongst millions of traders across the globe. We must’ve forget the good times and the fact that WE WILL TRADE GREAT AGAIN. For now, we push on thru the tall grass and fend off the devils in order to make it through.

Tech stocks are more or less dead and the only place to catch any momo is in commodities, reminiscent, in a bad way, to 200-2008.

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I Made My Bed, Now I Lay In It

There are times when you can no longer be malleable. You need to stand up for what is good and wholesome in the world, fighting back against the dwellers and bottom feeders, malevolent evil types whose designs are nothing less than frightful.

Some of you will shrink and cower in the comforts of SQQQ or SDOW. “The Fly”, however, will not bow down to the orcs and closed the session at a loss of nearly 200bps, but 90% long and fully long a leveraged Dow instrument into what is certain to be a decisive day for markets. We might herald in a new era of upward moving prices, cast aside the gloom and rub off the patina of this bear market — presented to us wholly and nakedly since February.

But if we fail, all is lost and I’m afraid those redoubts of safety you’ve bee hiding in will soon be overrun by flesh eating humanoids whose only goal is to destroy.

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