Bitcoin in Correction Mode is Over Mode?

The worst part of the market this month was $BTC. After running up and on its way to $100,000, Bitcoin has the audacity to collapse 11% in April. Sophisticates will look you dead in the eye with a keen sense of certainty and tell you to “buy all you can of the Bitcoin “ for it is heading to $500,000.

It’s very hard to reason with Bitcoin maxis, especially since their ideas are rooted in fantasy. Also, they’ve been proven nothing but right so far. Just last year $BTC was in the dumps and it looked very over and then it doubled. Now the coiners walk around with a meaningful purpose, condescending to the equity traders below them because they know what no one else does: The Bitcoin is heading to $500,000.

It all comes down to tomorrow’s trade, Sirs. I’ve had two down months in the past year and for good reason.

April of last year I was on vacation in Europe, completely distracted. In August I was maligned with an ACL tear and it led to my losses. I have excuses for nearly all losses, since under normal circumstances, I’d never book a loss.

I am all but assured to book profits tomorrow, locking in another gain for the month. So you know, I finished the session 109% long , without a care in the world. All of the bear arguments fall on deaf ears here, as I am convinced we are due to rally.

Seeing the market wanting higher without much volatility, I’ll give an update on House Fly, especially since it’s a topic that is near and dear to my heart, all about me.

We’ve been busy gardening for the spring and as a result I’ve also been afflicted by seasonal allergies. There is no way around them, no matter how many different pills of version of honey I take. I am to be afflicted.

Girl Fly is finishing year 3 in film school in her attempts at entering the degeneracy of Hollywood and ANTIFA FLY year 2, where he’ll be transferring to his 3rd college next year in 3 years. Fly Jr is doing well in his career and in his two side hustles, but has yet to marry and produce any grandchildren.

I’ve slowed down on reading since I’ve been studying to re enter the field of money management. Long story short, I am being under utilized and need to satiate some desires. I have been listening to Audibles during showers and have nearly completed Chernow’s Washington. I am moving onto Hamilton next.

In our long drives to and fro picking up ANTIFA FLY, Mrs Fly and I have been listening to old Art Bell Coast to Coast shows. What fucking lunacy.

On the weekends, I moved away from red wine into artisanal cocktails, because why the fuck not? I have a great recipe for an Earl Gray Martini. Here goes.

Take half a bottle of gin and infuse with 2 bags of earl gray for 2 hours. Do not infuse longer than 3, otherwise you’ll make it bitter.

We are making a martini but with froth for mouth feel. Typically you’d need an egg white for it but I hate the smell of the wet dog egg and found an excellent alternative: aquafaba, which is chick pea water. Make sure it’s unsalted chickpeas you fucking morons.

2 parts Earl Gray gin
1 part lemon
1 part simple syrup
1 part aquafaba

Dry shake contents to attain froth and then add ice and shake again. If you are dry shaking, just know that your tins might leak, since it’s the cold from the ice cubes that seals it. I’ve found that using a hand mixer works well enough for dry shaking methods. Mix with ice, strain into martini glass rimmed with sugar and garnish with lemon peel.

That was gay. Moving on.

I depart for Boston on Wednesday just for a day to bring back Girl Fly and help her move her things out. I’m not a fan of cities but if I had to live in one, Boston is ok.

Other than trading, going to the gym 3 days per week, and the occasional cigar or estate pipe smoke, House Fly is doing pretty good. I have no health complaints, other than last year’s ACL tear which I cured without surgery. I haven’t played tennis since last year, but intend to go back soon since I enjoy it.

One major change in my life is I’ve been going back to church over the past year after 20+ years being absent from it and I must admit to really liking it. I want to be clear, however, I am not even sure I believe in God but am open to suggestion. I went to church regularly as a boy and then when I got older I eschewed it because I was more or less an atheist. However, there is an appeal to the Catholic faith and I do enjoy a good sermon and the people there all trying to improve themselves in a wholesome way, in a clean and well lit church.

Writing hasn’t been much fun, because I do not like to write about politics anymore and the market has been without much drama. I really do prefer broken elevator pin action, inspiring me to conjured up stories to instill fear in the reader. Nowadays, wealth creation is on the menu and the sell offs are narrow and shallow.

Ok, back to work.

A tricky session for me so far. Don’t ask me how, but I’m flat for the day and was just down over 50bps a short while ago, as my pastiche of stocks in possession didn’t do me any favors. Part of the issue is this $BITX position, which is double long $BTC. For the last several weeks $BTC has traded like absolute shit and it’s very tempting to buy more into this correction, since the correlation to the market is fairly consistent and markets look pretty damn good.

One notable breakout is $TSLA, up more than 10% on news they’ll be getting the nod for the Chinese taxi market. Whatever, the stock was really cheap and now all of you Greg’s who live to hate on Elon will pay the fucking price, in spades, for your insolence.

Moving on, I have a semi hedge on now via $SOXS and will likely close it out soon, since markets look ok. A little earlier today the semis were weak and they will are the weakest part of this fledgling rally.

At any rate, back to work. Those digits aren’t going to get into your accounts with you just sitting there eating donuts.

I went in light for the session, after achieving robust gains on Thursday and didn’t begin my trading until after 1pm, at which point markets traded lower. You might’ve been in a position like this before, whereby the session looks great but you got in late and at the onset of any material intraday pullback, you yourself feel retarded for entering trades.

Truth is, there is nothing we can do about these things. It happens. There isn’t a need to panic, unless of course you feel something has changed. In my case, I ended the session at my lows down 54bps. My Quant was +104bps and my strategic +65bps. For the week, I had limited gains in trading, but up 2 to 4% in Quant and Strategic. My trading performance is usually less than those static accounts during gigantic bounces, because I am usually not partaking in wanton losses when markets trade down. On the whole, I do better than the static accounts, as indicated by my +13% gain vs the 4 to 6% YTD returns in the other accounts.

I’d like to become better, braver, at delving into oversold tapes and the irony of me having an oversold algorithm at my disposal is not lost on me. I’ve gotten so accustomed to my trading method that I am sometimes stubborn and do not like to deviate. But if I could time this mean reversions better I could likely double my annual gains, which is something for me to think about.

I haven’t lost confidence in spite of underperforming this week. I know my methods work and it’s only a matter of time before I bust loose again.

I ended the week 109% leveraged long. Before you ponder about how I could be so grim one second and the next fantasyland ecstatic about stocks, you should know that I express myself in a hyperbolic way and often do not actually mean what I say in the literal sense. Those who are in Stocklabs understand that COLLAPSE is always occurring, often at the same time I am 100% long. There is a difference between how my soul feels and what my mind makes my body do, if you can grasp that, which I doubt since most of you are 95 IQ NPCs who get angry when woken up.

At any rate, for the time being, I am bullish. But, if you must know, I can change my mind quite literally in minutes, as I am entitled to do so since I am master of my domain and you’re just a peasant reader.

Have a pleasant weekend.

It appears markers are sashaying towards new highs, seemingly immune to all of the horrors. The earnings are all that matters, after all and America the Empire is global and wide and pervasive. Our largest companies profit from the hegemony and bring back their earnings and convert them back into robust dollars.

Meanwhile, the oversold algorithms in Stocklabs appears to have called a bottom last week. I must admit, it’s never easy blindly following these oversold signals, as it feels akin to walking into a building on fire. ‘Why the fuck should I buy now, because the computer said so? No thanks, pal.’

But here we are spinning higher.

Our 12mo duration for the $QQQ is the one I was waiting to see materialize but had in mind we might be seeing a character change in markets and had prepared for an even lower algo reading. When I see these signals my chief concern is always ‘is this dip like the others or unique, like COVID or the financial crisis or even the Russian invasion rout?’ Every so often markets will blow through the oversold and COLLAPSE the fuck lower and it’s because of those occurrences that I remain on edge about them.

All in all, the data is pretty convincing over the past 5 years.

My assessment is, markets should continue higher into mid next week.

Your cortisol is through the roof, river boat gambling like a degenerate on earnings that you glean zero edge, totally bereft of insider information. The difference between a person, such as myself, and you is that I bet on sure things.

I closed the session +161bps in what will only be described here as ‘controlled and persistent excellence’, totally washing away yesterdays tragedy.

As I approached the final hour of trade I was faced with a dilemma: ‘should I press the press the gas and go full steam into an array of earnings announcements or comport myself like a gentleman?’

Some of you are glibly reading this saying to yourself ‘well I played $GOOGL and won’. But it’s your behavior and the habits you repeat that will be your eventual downfall. Because next time instead of dropping $30k on $GOOGL earnings, it’ll be $INTC and your shadow will be cast and plastered on a building after nuking yourself to zero.

I can speak like this to you, because I am entitled and quite frankly none of you are better than me.

Good day.

Only long, 64% cash.

Doing my scans last night I noticed serious technical damage in a number of seemingly well to do companies, which got me thinking about the market. Last year the market was 100% shit until November, with gains only concentrated the “Mag 7.” I haven’t thought about whether these stocks are ‘deals’ or a forward looking indicator into what might eventually lead to a much worse broader market.

Here are some that stood out for me.

1mo losses

$ULTA down 25%
$CELH down 22%
$LULU down 22%
$AMD down 19%
$ADSK down 15%
$BMY down 15%
$EQIX down 13%
$OKTA down 12%
$CRL down 12%

3mo losses

$ZS down 23%
$ADBE down 20%
$SNOW down 18%
$MELI down 17%
$TEAM down 16%
$AKAM down 14%
$PANW down 12%
$SHOP down 12%

6mo losses

$ON down 27%
$BABA down 11%
$DEO down 10%
$NTES down 10%
$ILMN down 9%

Obviously the Gods were toying with me yesterday and gave back all of my losses and left a tip for me today. With Zuck getting CLEAVED and markets spiraling lower, my $UVIX and $TZA positions skyrockets. And, at the open of trade, even the $ERX went higher, netting me a gain of +153bps.

I am now nestled in 100% cash, watching all of you race back and forth, attempting to make sense of it all. Some of us struggle from birth to grave, and others lead charmed lives. I am of the latter and tell you this as a reminder to never bet against me when it comes to the stock market. The wins just come very easily for me and it’s extremely rare when I am not winning on a continuous basis.

At any rate, I am in no rush to spoil the big victory and will bide my time reentering the tape. Things look dreadful, but I doubt they won’t stay that way, especially when considering the dollar carry trade and all of the foreign money being applied here to jimmy stocks higher.

My original assumption was correct, to be long staples like $PEP and $KO. But because in the morning I saw high beta rallying whilst low beta took on water, I assumed, incorrectly, that a rotation into risk was underway. Everything I did exacerbated my losses and I closed at rock bottom session lows of down 145bps.

When I had rallied midday to down 88bps, I knew then that I’d slink back to the lows and even lower. It wasn’t because I was an idiot or because I had suddenly forgotten how to trade, but because I knew it was my fate.

I am often regaled with ceremonial COLLAPSES in my portfolio, greatly maligned by the Gods, mocked even, during periods of transition. Because I could not figure it out, I went from cash to highly leveraged and right back to cash, with longs only in the oil ETF $ERX and the rest in $TZA and $UVIX. If the Gods are truly evil, then they’ll crush oil lower and run up the small caps on me, all but cementing my losses for April. At the present, I am down 1% for the month, after early on achieving gains of +5%.

I guess what you’re reading for is more my take on things and less on whatever the fuck problems I am having seeing this tape. But I don’t give a fuck what you want and do as I please when I want to do it.

If you must know, I hated today’s tape and truly despise everything about the idea of stocks climbing higher as bonds get smacked. No, this is not how it’s supposed to be. You do not get to eat your cakes and have them too. You will eat that cake, you fat fuck, and get fatter and slower and then I’ll beat you to death because you weren’t agile enough to defend yourselves against the onslaught.

I want vengeance and I want it to be primordial, cosmic even. The Middle Ages Catherine wheel stuff doesn’t do it for me anymore. I want your planet vaporized and sucked into a fucking black hole, matter crushed under the forces of extreme gravity, planets tossed into one each other like they were tennis balls, bouncing off the moon and directly into the fucking sun at the speed of light.