Markets In Limbo — Positioning for Wanton Depravity

I am 75% long now, an array of shit stocks based off the triple inverse feelings I have for stocks. I really and truly loathe the long trade now, which is why I am taking it. The notion we should quickly sell off and dissipate into clouds of dust seems both juvenile and simple to me. Wouldn’t it be crazier if we fucking RAMPED into the close. Most traders would hate it.

On the other side of this paradigm is my pride, little old me making a JACKASS out of myself in front of millions. Why, just yesterday I was calling for the apocalypse and a RETESTING of the lows. Today I sold my inverse ETFs and went long. Surely that sort of arrogance is deserving of a nice hard lashing across the face with a horse whip. I bet a whole bunch of you are waiting for Le Fly to fail, in order to make fun of him. Be honest.

That’s just too bad it’s never gonna happen, pal.

See there are two types of people in this world pal — people who fuck and people who watch. DO NOT FUCK WITH ME — I will snap your legs off like King Crab shells.

I have no fear, positioning in grandiloquent fashion — highly tethered to the emotions of the markets — long.

I sold out of my inverse ETFs first thing in the morning — because I felt the dip was faux and a trap for bears — once again — to be lured into a snare that would end up decapitating them.

Here were my results from this morning.

BLUE +4.8%
(APT -5%)
(TZA -9.7%)
(SOXS -14.2%)
FAZ – wash
(DRIP -2.4%)
SPOT +0.9%

Net net, not a catastrophe, but certainly not good. What can I say? I took a shot and missed. The game changed, so I am attempting to change with it. In the after-hours last night I bought some mortgage plays, which are hovering around my basis now and I also allocated some money to the long side today — which can still blow up in my face. I am trying to resist the temptation to go long more than I am. The problem with going long in size now, aside from the obvious, is the specter of Friday and how superstitious Wall Street is about holding shit over the weekend.

There is a chance of course I could get “DOUBLE BOGGED” on both the long and short side, so I am keeping my exposure limited for the time being.

“Pandemics are not covered.” States and companies want them to pay — but he says fuck off. UNCONSTITUTIONAL! “The loss potential is infinite.”

His advice: THE GOVERNMENT AKA THE TAX PAYER SHOULD PAY.

The billions in share buybacks by Chubb over the past years.

And their bountiful free cash flow.

Thoughts?

UPDATE: Gilead is walking back the markets jerk off festival in the AHs. Clearly, at this point it does not matter. Futures are already out of the bag and people have lost their fucking minds. I bought 4 mortgage stocks in the AHs session to join the parade.

IT DOESN'T MATTER. THE BALL IS ROLLING SON — +1,000 DOW PIECES HERE WE GO https://t.co/N99g2IMMXq

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) April 17, 2020

About an hour ago two major news events hit the tape.

1. Boeing is REOPENING their fucking plant to build great big beautiful airplanes.
2. Gilead might’ve found a cure for COVID-19

The University of Chicago Medicine recruited 125 people with Covid-19 into Gilead’s two Phase 3 clinical trials. Of those people, 113 had severe disease. All the patients have been treated with daily infusions of remdesivir.

“The best news is that most of our patients have already been discharged, which is great. We’ve only had two patients perish,” said Kathleen Mullane, the University of Chicago infectious disease specialist overseeing the remdesivir studies for the hospital.

Granted, the sample size is small and two people did die — but it’s something. As such, futures are going wild and I am getting CLEANED hard in my inverse ETFs. The IWM is + 4.5% in the AHs, up more than usual because it was lower today. Almost everything is running hard, from PACKED CRUISELINERS to PACKED CASINOS to PACKED AIRPLANES. Everything. With this cure, we can all pack in tightly and sneeze into each other’s faces again without worrying about imminent death.

Oil is up, banks you name it. We’re going to have shit FLYING OFF THE HANDLE tomorrow, +20-30%. Nothing at all in the way of stopping us. Now I know what you’re thinking — “what the fuck will you do Fly, long those BASTARD inverse ETFs?” Remember, they’re 5% weighted positions. I will adapt and live to trade hard another day. Will I acquiesce and join the party? Of course. But I will NOT sell them in the AHs before everyone had a chance to review the data.

Will this mean SHARPLY higher prices forever?

We’re +0.5% on the QQQs YTD without an economy. Think about it.

I’d expect nothing less than for Wall Street to celebrate amidst their cocaine WHORES as Main Street quite literally starves to DEATH. There is nothing wrong with profiting off the pain and misery and others. This is what America was built off of — the strong eating the weak and taking their resources to build an empire.

I’ve had a terrific two weeks of trading. In the spirit of full disclosure, here are all of my closed out trades. All trades are equal weighted, 5% position sizes. You can get the gist of what my personal account is doing now — by simply bearing witness to this splendid splendor.

JWN +24.6%
WW +16.4%
ALLY +13.7%
STWD +18.5%
H +14%
TREE +10.1%
SQ +7.7%
ZEN +7%
CPB +1.9%
NYMT +33%
MFA +8.3%
MAC +10.8%
CNK +4.4%
SM +4.8%
GCO +5.1%
STWD +1.4%
RWT +25%
PMT +8.6%
MTG +7.8%
CIT +12.5%
CC +11%
ORC +9%
CBRL +8%
HA +8.8%
NUGT +10.4%
FTI +6.6%
(PEI -3.6%)
EGO +3.1%
CEMI +10.6%
PVAC +`14.6%
ROKU +3.1%
BMRA +10%
NGD +16.1%
EXK +9.4%
ENBL +10%
PAA +4.5%
(CEQP -4.5%)
(PLAN -0.45%)
(BXP -1.9%)
ETRN +4.8%
(NTNX -2.2%)
(SBRA -5.6%)
(AM -10%)
SJM +17.6%
GIS +18.2%
K +3.2%
CHD +5.7%
KMB +5.8%
(CALM -2.6%)
CLX +10.1%
CL +10.7%
HAIN +4.2%

I expect the market to be EXECUTED tomorrow. We do not bottom on Friday’s and the rally is at the comical stage of working thru its insanity. I am not bitter or wishing for pain. I simply want what I deserve.

On a brighter note, all but 1 of my inverse ETFs were UP today. So in spite of the rally, I made money on the short side too. On the long side, I have one old man stock, two contagion stocks, and one tech stock.

Be well and prepare for the fires — for they are coming and will burn heavier and brighter than ever before.

I accurately measures the time and place old man stocks should outperform and today I cemented in my gains. The reason for selling is simple: I want to be NAKEDLY short this market without any buffer. I am not certain it will happen today or tomorrow — but it’s coming. I see the writing on the wall — the expressions on the faces of a sea of cows being herded for slaughter.

This is what victory looks like.

SJM +17.6%
GIS +18.2%
K +3.2%
CHD +5.7%
KMB +5.8%
(CALM -2.6%)
CLX +10.1%
CL +10.7%
HAIN +4.2%

I have one old man stock left, an array of inverse ETFs, one contagion stock, and 65% cash. Said cash will be applied to the market as I deem necessary. I expect volatility, but more than that I expect bloodshed.

America lost more than 5 million jobs the past week, giving us a grande total of at least 22 million jobs lost. This does not include the millions of small business owners, sloths, and people with money who didn’t want to file a claim. We’ve now lost 10 years worth of jobs and Wall Street is snoozing agin, with the Dow barely down 200 and the Nasdaq ripping +80.

I get it. Liquidity and the future is so fucking bright. I’d be curmudgeon if I was to suggest the market was GRAVELY underestimating the severity of the economic collapse at hand and how the weak have inherited the earth and we’ve become a society filled with self-absorbed narcissists whose only desire is for a higher Nasdaq.

You hear the term “bending the curve” being thrown around — because less and less people are being admitted into hospitals. The death rate, for the time being, will remain very elevated — roughly 5% of patients admitted — which is insanely high. The idea is getting back to work by mid May to early June and every back to normal. But you know that’s not going to happen. We have a world filled with PTSD victims and consumer behavior has been permanently altered by this event. There will be no V shaped recovery because things cannot go back to the way it was.

Nevertheless, we’ll try and harken back to the halcyon days of Jan 2020 when everyone was rich and happy and leveraged to the hilt trading SAAS stocks.

A rather pleasant day at the office. Longs bought dips, shorts fiddled with themselves. We gapped lower and did nothing all day. There was a brief moment late afternoon when bulls looked like they wanted Amazon alone to force the Nasdaq higher. But it wasn’t meant to be.

Stocks collapsed under the weight of their own hubris and now the bulls are faced with the horrible fate of having to defend themselves in the midst of unprecedented chicanery. Their case is only this:

“I suck Fed cock. Therefore, I am protected.”

A whore can only seek refuge under the protection of her pimp for so long. At some point along this very long and narrow corridor, something will go wrong. When it does, there will be no bids, no one to gather up the mess — just bleeding out and pain.

I’ve begun the arduous process of betting on a resumption of the bear market — a retesting of the lows. I anticipate this will happen inside of two months.

The Dow was off by 445 — with downside action led by banks.

Consensus opinion for a reopening of the economy is looking like mid to late May. Many executives do not expect normalcy until mid June to July, with a possibility of ‘rolling quarantines.’ Today’s manufacturing and retail numbers were almost TWICE AS BAD as projected. We’re barely down 500 now and dip buyers have been out in force, nakedly smug and their arrogance burning to a brilliance — daring Mother Market to punish them with her unique cruelty.

I booked losses on a series of trades places yesterday and went net short today, not because I feel COLLAPSE is coming. I am merely testing the waters here, feeling out the possibility that the game will switch from long to short. There was never a reason to rally in the first place, so I am careful not to fall into the bearshitter mentality that demands satisfaction. You get what you deserve and most people deserve nothing.

Truth is, the pain trade probably shifted with yesterday’s grotesque exhibition of greed and celebration. As 90% of the country endures the pain of economic collapse, these fuckheads on Wall Street are jerking off to Fed bucks and bidding up Amazon to record highs. The optics are of course rancid and there’s nothing on this planet that can ever change that. But you cannot continue at this rate of return without reverting to the mean.

The strategy is to bet on a mean reversion, then fuck faces later.

March Retail Sales -8.7% — RECORD LOWS

April Empire State Manufacturing -78.2 — RECORD LOWS

BBY posted -30% YOY sales

GS, BAC and C posted worse than expected results due to loan losses, mark downs, and heightened reserved in preparation for more losses.

WTI is under $20 and the DAX is lower by 3.4%.

US futures are down more than 500, an it appears, the smugness will be wiped clean from the faces of bulls this morning. However, I am almost certain they will buy dips today and will not be sufficiently punished for their misdeeds with anything shorts of a 2,000 point rout. I suspect I will sell numerous stocks today and I also suspect I will increase my bearish bets. I suspect my FAZ position will skyrocket and the good fortune I’ve recently enjoyed via wild eyed gambits will come to an end. That is ok — since a shift in markets to the downside will make it inexorably easier to make money on bearish bets, since we’ve run up so effervescently without a care in the world.