iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,399 Blog Posts

November Starts with a Boom

Lots of pennies and smalls running to kick off the holiday season run. The market is always at its best this time of year, opting for higher prices more often than not — aspirational and the very best human disposition we have to offer.

Nevertheless, in my day trading account, I am back to cash aside from my BITO calls, because I’m up 116bps and that’s a fine return for a single day and I’ve learned harsh lessons since February about greed and the toll it can take when pursued at the wrong time.

My quant was liquidated as well in order to make way for the November portfolio, which should be selected by noon.

If you’re asking me if I like the market I would answer that I do. But if you’re asking me if I trusted the market, I most certainly do not.

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Looking Ahead to November; Quantitative Strategies

I was really impressed by the Quant in October — capturing monster winners like NET (+75%), NVDA (+25%), INMD (+25%), SM (+25%) — helping to outpace the 7-8% returns of the market to +12%. It’s important to note the returns of the Nasdaq and SPY are no longer strong barometers of what your average stock is doing. Most traders are not diversified and often regale themselves with the very worst stocks in order to grab quick gains. Here are the returns for October by sector.

There are certain fundamental criteria that is consistent with stock outperformance. For example in SAAS, the best stocks are the one’s with the strongest margins. Gross margins is a must have criteria inside the Quant, in addition to revenue growth and minimum revenues levels to weed out bullshit stocks — and also revenues growth quarter over quarter to remain in stocks constantly growing. This creates a paradigm shift often, such as diving heavily into oils into their growth phase. Last year there were zero oils in the quant because they weren’t growing. While I might miss out on some big winners, by setting fundamental criteria I insulate myself from the specter of a truly horrific drawdown in shit stocks. Remember, I set it and forget it for a month and only touch the portfolio the first of every month. There is no market timing involved.

Now the criteria shifts on occasion, all dependent upon what blend of fundamentals produces the best returns. There was a time when minimum free cash flow was desired; now that is not the case.

The final arbiter is the Stocklabs Advanced Algorithm (SAA 1 month) feature, which is new to the platform. This produces a technical ranking for a 1 month time period and isn’t as sensitive to daily moves like our standard default score.

For November, looking at the screen now — it is heavily influenced by tech, oil, and banks. Healthcare seems to be absent, on par with the abysmal performance of the healthcare sector during October.

Skeptics might suggest now is a good time to buy healthcare. While this might be true, the algorithms do not give a shit about your feeeeelings and offers unemotional assessments into the heart of the market and it will shift when needed. For all we know, healthcare is about to swan dive the fuck lower again. The technical scores are weak because people are selling the fuck out of the sector.

The point is, believe in the efficient market theory, which states all available information about a stock is already known by the market matrix and summarily priced in. Our job as investors is to ride this wave and position ourselves in the best stocks, both technically and fundamentally, in order to exceed market returns.

At +34% for  2021 vs market returns of +23%, I’d say we’re doing that now. The November Quant allocation will be revealed inside Stocklabs Monday around noon. At this time we do not offer free trials. Try for a month — cancel at anytime. It’s the best, believe me.

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Fly’s Computer Brains Beats His Real Brain For October

My quantitative strategy which only uses the algorithms from Stocklabs, non-market timing, once per month allocation and hold — beat me out my trading account — booking an 11.96% gain for October to my toil of +8.3%. I was above 10%, but had some minor set backs the past day.

Today was all about bigger capped stocks or perhaps a foray into the sewers of crypto miners with names like EQOS, GREE and BKKT storming higher.

I had an off day, thanks to an overnight trade gone awry but did not let it keep me down and I am wisely and keenly positioned for the beginning of November.

We got through October unscathed and now the very best of the market is ahead.

Come Monday I will be selling the entire Quant in exchange for a new month’s Quant, so if you’re interested in following along — be sure to join us inside Stocklabs and BEHOLD the grandeur of my computer brain.

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Horrific Chop Barreling into Hallow’s Eve

Halloween has always been and always will be my favorite holiday. It’s pure and not replete with American consumerism, pure fun and family oriented. The very worst holiday is Xmas, which isn’t the celebration of Christ any longer — but fat fuck Santa Claus.

We entered today in the hole due to Apple’s miss and that happened because of the MUH supply chain. No one can get anything because MUH the great reset and global warming is going to melt the iced caps and cause our homes to wash away in great floods and we’re all gonna get so hot and the weather is going to fuck with us severely and oh the polar bears will drown because their iced caps have melted and all of this is happening because MUH coal mines and also cows and all of the trimmings mankind has created for himself.

Into the last trading day of October, I am positioning for November, which means retail. Come Monday all of the catamites and all of the gurus will be fixed on retail sales and how we’re heading into a meatless Thanksgiving due to the SUPPLY CHAIN. Oh my God, the supply chain — bared to the bone — and also NO ONE TO MAN THE MACHINES as the labor shortage is oh so terrible.

I don’t give a fuck and hope the supply chain remains broken forever and I hope that God is listening to me when I ask for RUNAWAY INFLATION and $5,000 tomatoes and dead crops because MUH LABOR SHORTAGE and soured milk because OMG NO TRUCKERS.

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WEAK HANDS FLUSHED THE FUCK OUT OF $BTC IN SUDDEN FLASH CRASH

I was about to buy some more calls on BITO when the floor dropped out from BTC, sending the coins tumbling lower — only immediately reverse and lift higher.

This is what happens when people who are fat man trading desks.

All that aside, markets ramped into the close but I had a somewhat milquetoast session, higher by 65bps. I am getting drilled in the AH on one of these VR plays gone awry, in light of the Facebook announcement to change their name to Metaverse. Nevertheless, I will manage myself admirably and trade out from it with poise.

I think we ramp — I really do. I’m not so sure about commodities, but just to be sure you should diversify.

Tomorrow is the last day of the trading month and I cannot complain up around 10%. Heading into the best time of year for stocks, although always on edge and apprehensive, I look forward to a massive rally into Thanksgiving and a cooling off of equities into December, but accentuated with grandiosity in the crypto space which I fully expect to bear witness to a massive rally of monumental proportions.

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The Crypto Starfish Super Rally Looms

Markets are busting loose and we’re all making money again. Halloween is this Sunday and nothing scary had happened thus far, which brings me to my next grandiloquent conclusion.

THE THANKSGIVING SUPERNOVA STARFISH NUCLEAR EXPLOSION IN OUTERSPACE is about to commence, into National Festival — a day reserved for wanton gluttony.

I feeeeel no other place will benefit most than the crypto markets, pushing BTC to $100k and $ETH towards $7k.

Inflation is here and none know it better than the fucking retards in SHIB.

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This is How Professionals Trade

Up 106bps for the session, on a day when most got their dicks cut off. Le Fly was leisurely being genteel, cavorting and sashaying in and about his home office — not because he needed to but because he wanted to. At this very moment in time, I am 100% in charge.

I had a gain of 60bps and doubled it in the final minutes of trade with an opportunistic gambit into BKKT, booking an 11.5% gain by 4:01pm.

Others in the PR took GRTX up 35% in the AHs. This, as you know, is child’s play and nothing for men of finance — people formally and professionally trained in the art of proper money management. This isn’t a Reddit forum or even worse StockTwits. Fuck off and neck yourself.

I am 49% cash and triple hedged via $TZA into what is sure to be a tumultuous open. The market has broken lower.

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PROBING

I took one risky trade and booked it for +4.8%. I now have a handful of positions, all bigger capped near session highs, designed for low beta returns. I am hedged via 10% position in TZA, which I feel is a good overnight hold. The dichotomy here is record highs for FANGT and everything else falling by the wayside.

The trade is to be long mega caps and short small. There are days when this trade fails, but on the whole, this is a winning trade.

To buy commodity plays or not on this dip?

No.

I just don’t care much about it and prefer to buy strength than dips. I know the bigger money is in catching the turn. But generally speaking, I am more comfortable buying what is in play — because my trading account is designed for short term.

Aside from the rip roaring days, I have found comfort in selling everything at the open, which usually consists of bigger cap stocks that were closing near highs and a triple inverse ETF, sometimes as high as 15% weight. If market opens up, I close out the longs first and ETF last, since we usually fade opens. If we open down, I close out short and then longs. Into the close, I have been choosing 1 runner for AHs session and haven’t lost yet. The criteria is simple: buy a nut stock near session highs trading on very high volume. In Stocklabs we can measure the delta of volume and that helps a lot. You want to buy names with big volume breakouts.

After I sell the open, during the afternoon I probe with small size and usually harvest gains/losses in small quantities. I rarely buy more than 50% weight overall. Lastly, into the close, during the final 30 mins, I position for tomorrow.

Rinse and repeat.

Up 95bps for session, +9.3% for October.

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Not Touching This Shit

I was positioned good enough and sold everything but my BITO calls, locking in again of 0.65%. The stocks that are running are solar related, due to ENPH and their fucking earnings beat. The other niche running hot are small little Chinese burrito bombs with a lot of cash. You can measure this by price/cash ratio. At any rate, stocks like NEW, CXDC and others are through the roof.

This is a classic trap. If you’re not careful and find yourself sliding into one of these, you’ll be sliding out on a slab en route to your coffin.

No thanks.

For now, I’m in cash, waiting in the tall grass — taking it easy while the rest of you toil like son of s bitches. Believe me, I’m appreciative of you. But you’re son of a bitches.

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Wrapped in Burlap, Set Aflame

Nothing could save me from myself today, squandering a gift horse by punching it in the fucking face. I’d rather not delve into the details of my catastrophe, but let’s just say I ran when I was supposed to stop and stopped when I was supposed to run and ended up by the close flattened the fuck out by a tractor trailer of a tape that seemed to be just wonderful for everyone but me. This had a very last month feel to it and I hated it and I hope I positioned correctly into the close.

The thing is, it’s the allure of the 100% runners with market caps under $100m that keep infecting my mind. I see them as lottery tickets almost for free, but then they end up costing me a fortune. To do what I did today is more than a crime, which is only enforced by mortals. I sinned today, committed ecclesiastical errors from which lesser men are burned in hell for. I turned +1.7% into -2%, closed at the lows, all of the beautiful money washed away in a comical tragedy of my doing — both funny and sorrowful at once. I feel like, if being honest, punching holes into my walls — especially when looking around and seeing everyone sucking their own dicks with 40% wins, leisurely and without breaking a sweat.

I am the only one, in the whole wide world, who lost money today and because of my tomfoolery, I will most likely be ENTREATED to another day inside hell at the open of trade tomorrow. Now with an 8.5% gain for Oct, if I open down more than 1%, which would be SOMETHING ELSE since I am hedged, I am calling it a fucking month and punishing myself by being forced to do something other than trading for the balance of October.

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