AMAZON COLLAPSES AFTER EARNINGS WARNING: IT’S OVER

Here is the grim news:

We are quickly heading to war, now in the hole to Ukraine for $50b inside two months, paying for their entire shithole country.

Inflation is an issue and the supply chain issues are getting worse.

The Fed is working against us, attempting to slow the economy via rate hikes.

Amazon missed and warned.

The upside:

We are likely in recession right now, which means the retards at the FOMC will not hike as much as they’re warning.

But before we get to a spot that is investable, we need to see earnings shortfalls. I know stocks are down 50% but they need to drop another 50% before one could feel as if one is receiving value.

I was at Harvard all day, now back at the hotel. I’m 75% cash, only long oil refiners due to blow out in 321 cracks.

Oh and by the way, AMZN is -10% in AHs after warning.

I’ve been out all day, drinking tea, spending money. I ended up selling at the open for my trading but didn’t touch the quant or algo account. I also leaned into refiners early morning due to blow out in crack spreads and maintained respectable gains while enjoying ribald returns in the algo account.

SIR —

I trade from a Time Machine. While all of you were soiling inside your pantaloons over the market decline, The Fly LEANED IN and went all in TQQQ, as the fires burned bright and beautifully at the transom of WW3. The algo trade is a 5 day hold, so I’ll be long into next week.

I’ll be traveling back tomorrow, back in the saddle on Monday since I have something to do upon landing in NC.

I bid you well and hope you made it through the panic. But just know, no matter how much you practice and how good you think you are — you will never be as good as Le Fly.

I was up 3% at 5am. I know this because I had to urinate. Now I’m barely up 60bps after BTU surprised to the downside due to retarded hedges against coal. They’re basically stupid people.

Q1 GDP steamed lower at -1.4%. Barely anyone was calling for this, but it’s happening. Over in Europe amidst war footing, inflation is soaring. Both Poland and Bulgaria refuse to pay in Rubles for Russian gas, so it seems we are fast approaching a total collapse of the EU’s economy, with intent.

Zelensky was invited to the G20 this year. As Europe’s poorest country, I’m sure he has much advice to offer.

Oh and Barclays just nukes all of its commodity ETFs. The only reason why they would do this, imo, is a government directive to reduce speculation in commodities.

BARCLAYS NUKES ITS ENTIRE COMMODITIES ETF ROSTER pic.twitter.com/Pht0i9NvAE

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) April 28, 2022

I’ll likely be selling at the open.

The morning starter with an allergy attack, sneezing in a small hotel room with three people at 6am. I then took to twitter and tweeted out a bunch of WW3 bullshit and headlines about retards in Europe willing to freeze rather than pay for Russian gas with Russian Rubles. This is just common sense shit that I have trouble with not making fun of.

We then took to Boston and markets opened hard and fast only to collapse and then rally and collapse again. Meanwhile, I was fine dining, out and about with Mrs Fly — bearing witness to lads in the Pelican Room arguing with one another over nonsense. We have a contest going and the first place leader began to CHEAT in order to protect his lead and was then banned from the contest. Really dumb shit.

Later on I moved my daughter out of her dorm and then went to dinner, but was rudely preoccupied again by the “men” in Stocklabs arguing the point that one member had PURPOSELY set people up by saying FB was going to miss earning all the while knowing they in fact were going to beat! Really toxic shit. I’ve come to realize, as much effort I put into SL it’ll never get big because A. no one listens to what I tell them and B. people can never appreciate good things.

To think I quit money management to babyshit a bunch of retards makes me almost want to cry. Good thing men don’t cry.

In the end, Stocklabs won and the mean reversion algos proved predictive again, as FB smashed earnings and NASDAQ Futs are way up.

I’ll be ENTREATED to another fun filled day in Boston tomorrow, so trading and blogging will be light.

We started off so promising with both the Nasdaq and Dow soaring but alas within 30 mins of trade it all dissipated and gave way to orcs foraging the countryside for fresh meat. This is very typical of a panic, especially small bounces at the open, as they get sold down and drilled out until the last bull is left holding his own balls severed from his person.

I didn’t sell because I’m on “vacation” and not really able to assess the tick tock. I cannot short while doing things into what might become a +500 NASDAQ session. And also, besides, we are deeply oversold and I have 45% cash left aside exactly for these reasons.

There are times to cower and other times to be slippery and then there are times to be obstinate and firm. SIRS — now is one of those times.

I haven’t had a chance to give my opinion on what is without question the most important takeover in my lifetime. The town square, the place where opinions are created and promoted, has been acquired by the greatest industrialist in generations. On the surface people are viewing this as a rebuke against the fascist tendencies of Twitter married with the overly oppressive US govt. Of course the spin is, twitter was just trying to protect people from disinformation and prevent bullying; but anyone who is on Twitter and not just reading the talking points understands that US govt policy is married to the corporate policies of Twitter, which made it big brother — an oppressive venue that cast out dissenters or people who posed a threat to US policy.

Elon simply isn’t concerned with US policy and is a businessman. He says the economics don’t mean anything but he’s been evasive regarding his true goals for Twitter, which has nothing to do with small minded ads or absurd pro versions. Elon, being a long time advocate for AI, will tackle bots to eradicate false data inside the platform and then create various engines which could then use clusters of data to predict the future. Forget about the google search engine. It’s antiquated compared to the real time Twitter streams.

What Elon is after and what he will build, and the reason why he’s going to open up the API to allow developers to create on top of the platform, is an artificial intelligence engine that can eventually be manipulated with inputs to cause outcomes.

This might sound like batshit sci-fi stuff but google and IBM are already working on super computers to do this very thing.

Whoever is in control of the most data can A/B test the fuck out of human behavior to eventually be able to comfortably peer into the future.

We are max oversold following a 500 point drubbing in the NASDAQ. Naturally it happened while I was traveling and away from the desk all day, only time to pop in for moments to buy dips. I bought them but still remained in 50% cash and yet in spite of all that I still lost a staggering 4%.

We are oversold for all algos now except historical. I can promise you this, there is a massive upside day coming but I can’t really ever tell you with 100% certainty during panics. The feeling is always dreadful and I almost always second guess being long into tapes like this. I remain so because, to be honest, I’d rather be wrong and lose money than miss out on an oversold bounce forecasted by algorithms that I developed and have depended on for more than a decade.

I haven’t ventured much inside the Pelican Room today but I’m sure many people are considering blowing their brains out en route to the pavement from the ledge they just leapt from.

The reasons for panic is as follows.

RUSSIA CUTS OFF GAS TO POLAND AND BULGARIA BECAUSE THEY REFUSED TO PAY IN RUBLES.

All that aside, we are, invariably, heading into combat with a very big army and for those of you OSINT homos on Twitter maligning the Russian army for losses — you should shut the fuck up because once we commit to destroying them, they will do the same and it’s shameful of all of you to not see the ramifications of all this. I will never support a war for Ukraine and I will never sacrifice my sons to defend their corrupt and wretched country. That’s for Ukrainians to do, yet for some reason, we are ensnared in the deep state’s web.

Several things for you to chew on.

1. We are retesting the 2022 lows, as predicted.

2. The technical scores inside Stocklabs are so bad now, they’re lining up with some of the worst markets historically.

Here is the trade.

Sanity for money.

If you’re buying into a Polish natural gas valve shut down by Russia, then you’re nuts. By all measures, it appears a hot war between NATO and Russia is very close to happening. This could entail Russian subs CUTTING the transatlantic fiber cables and/or sinking of LNG ships to Europe in an effort to freeze them out. It could get very very ugly. But this is the past western governments have chosen to lead their people, directly and bellicosely into war.

On the other hand, all of this panic lends to a sublime mean reversion trade, the perfect wall of worry.

Based on the grim outlook and historically weak technicals, I like this set up on the long side. The only thing that could go wrong, of course, is loading up just before ICBMs start to fly.

In fairness to todays utter collapse, there is a distinct feeling of world war in the air. We are getting broken elevator pin action so far, which is typical with a market so oversold like this. We are being terminated and the liquidations will continue until they stop and once they do —- the buying will be fantastical.

I blew out of most of my stocks this morning and averaged down in two ETFs, FNGU, TQQQ. Since it’s early in the day, I will not rush to buy but instead opt to wade into this bloodshed and perhaps go bigger near the close.

I’m down 2% to start the day, but I know volatility is extreme and those numbers can change fast. If we run higher, I’ll likely do nothing. I won’t buy more or sell, just accept it. If we run lower, I’ll likely nibble because deeply oversold markets and panics are usually buying ops. There are exceptions to the rules and perhaps this is the beginning of a big crash. The mood is certainly grim enough and the news flow cannot be worse.

Nevertheless, I live by some rules and one of them is to buy the blood when afforded the opportunity.

I’m in Boston now, going for a walk. I’ll check in later.

I hope I’m not wasting my time here and not just talking to a bunch of yogurt eating muscle heads.

This morning we got another Stocklabs mean reversion EXTREME oversold signal, which prompted me in an account I dedicate only to the SL algos to buy a 2nd tranche of TQQQ. There were tells early on, such as SAAS stocks +30bps while markets were at lows.

SAAS closed +3.7% and everything swam higher.

One of the things that made me very bullish was an esoteric reading that was once discussed heavily by a former members of ours, Jungle. The % of large caps rated bullish was at 2.8%. In the past anything less than 10% was reason to raise an eyebrow. Anything less than 5% meant blood was flowing in the streets and time to buy.

SL flashed 10 yr OS on both Friday and today.

Needless to say, the NASDAQ face ripped higher and I am 95% sure this face ripping rally will spill into tomorrow’s tape.

Since I’ll be traveling tomorrow — blogging will be light — but that shouldn’t stop you from trading and trading well.

Be long.