Careful of Rug Pulls

Gains are being enjoyed exclusively in larger capped stocks and the overall indices are nothing more than circle jerks for AAPL, MSFT, FB, NFLX, NVDA and AMZN. Ignore them. In the real works the The Stocklabs 4000 index is DOWN 0.42%.

I am still 95% cash, intent on adding BITO calls because there is a blessed chance, mind you, that Bitcoin is on the verge of partaking in an enchanting run to $100,000. Or, none of that shit happens and I simply lose the money invested. I am perfectly fine with either outcome.

As for the markets are concerned, anything I do will be hedged with an inverse ETF.

I knew the rally would not stick and now we see exclusive strength in certain Tera caps, semis, and EV stocks, 100% shit tape. Breadth is at 30% and TZA is running higher.

I entered the session 105% invested with a 15% hedge in $TZA. Although I believe this tape is poor, I have to acknowledge there are certain areas of the market which is strong and that was enough to get me to sell everything but my BITO yolo calls.

I’m upwards of 95% cash now, higher by 0.55% today, in no rush to catch a trade, as my month is ending well +7.3%. I’ll likely nibble later on in the afternoon session.

What this is is more of the same, FAG-BOX trading in the IWM.

This is the most important set of numbers you’ll see this week.

Seasonal Returns for QQQ since 2008

Everyone expects things to happen right away — but it just isn’t in the cards for December. There are been years when December started off bad and then recovered and other years when it took off like a rocket ship, only to succumb to Xmas fatigue syndrome and fade into New Year’s. As you can see from the data above, it’s more or less a nothing-burger month — with the real movement reserved for January.

Futures are sharply higher tonight, alongside a +5% move in WTI — but I doubt it will hold. Or if you does hold, the rally will be narrow and traders will be churned up and spit out. The year is ostensibly over and November was an extreme bust — having absconded with a 6% gain only to later on get hooked and eviscerated by “market forces.”

January brings many things, but in this environ — forebodings loom. Look at the writing on the wall — a brand new OMICRON COVID strain sounding like a fucking Deception gone rogue intent on eliminating humanity. It is all but assured that when OMICRON sashays in the very gay NYC — it will be light’s out. If we lock down again, well now, I suspect extreme measures will be taken, including restrictions on domestic inter-state travel, in an effort to cajole people into injecting themselves with graphene razor blades. This is not unique to the United Steaks, but instead a prison planet — whereby all western and eastern nations are onboard with a medicinal attack on its populace in the name of safety. The last time we were sold a bag of goods for safety was post 9/11, which ushered in a wave of Draconian laws all designed to monitor and censor people who do not tow statist agi-prop. On top of that, “they” have constructed the American society via decades of successful promotion of a cancerous and toxic “culture” which has led us to this tipping point we find ourselves in, which is the incredible belief of violence being the preferred method of dealing with the problems we face now — all in the name of social justice and injustice and it is widely believed that a political solution to these problems is off the table. The only thing keeping both sides of slitting each other’s throats is the fabric of our economy — near full employment — fruitful for many and good enough to keep the animal spirits at bay.

Let’s hope for the best and perhaps the specter of OMICON being no more than a bad flu with SPIKED PROTEIN characteristics. I have been preparing for a “Dark Winter” for the better part of the last 20 years. We may in fact get it and get it soon, but not during the month of December.

I was hard pressed to push a net short position into CYBER MONDAY based off some scurrilous data regarding a new COVID variant. It all seems so jejune and the very last thing I want to be is uncreative.

I went all in but with a 15% TZA hedge, which at 3x IWM should afford me with a decent hedge should we collapse on Monday. I ended the session +85bps and +7% for November. We had been up 6.5% on the IWM in the first week of November and I warned you all that gains had been had, with very little to no case for more gains in light of the overall market outlook.

Barreling into December, I am concerned for markets and believe we will likely trade lower. But that doesn’t mean we’ll trade lower on Monday. I trade, very short term, and I win — all the time. That’s who I am.

Ciao.

ALERT: support IBankCoin fucked faces.

Merch

Two award winning best selling books

Stocklabs

Ciao again.

It could be over.

WTI -11%
US 10yr -14bps
DOW -1000
VIX +50%
Gold +0.8%
IWM -5%

This is your crash the markets starters pack, with all of the wildest moves imaginable. You have two questions for me, so I’ll get right to it.

How much is The Fly down today?

Answer: I was born to trade bear markets. I had 10% of my portfolio in TZA coming into today and 55% cash. I’m up 0.6% for the session, now all cash aside from my BITO yolo options trade.

Where will the markets go next?

This crash is happening during a holiday light half session. Very thin and very weak. We are all panicked because a MUG NU VARIANT OF COVID has been found in S Africa and fears of lockdowns are rampant. It will never end. The vaccines are for shit and the COVID business will mutate for as long as we live. What part about this don’t you understand? The other part about this is seasonality. Hello! When the sun is out and people enjoying vitamin D, COVID wanes. Now with winter coming, COVID is back. This is pattern recognition 101. I have not “vaccinated” myself; therefore I’m still able to use my brain.

Cyber Monday looms and we are diving into an oversold condition. You can see for sure and enjoy the comforts of having those details as a valued member of Stocklabs (cough).

My opinion on the matter is two fold. On one hand, we are dreadfully in a massive Federal Induced bubble with companies trading 150x sales. On the other, we never really crash do we? But again on the other, a little air coming out really helps Biden reduce inflation. See how transitory it is with a little help from Mother Market?

My sense is we are news dependent now and we’ll get weaker and weaker until the Fed signals they’ll suck our dicks again. We cannot afford a full lockdown again. Then again, online companies will profit. There are some winners in all this. In the end, this is a traders tape again, but one that requires careful treading. For now, cash is a very good option.

Time to stuff your fat fucking faces with bread and stuffing, washed down with thick brown gravy and copious amount of red wine.

On this day, Americans celebrate giving food to Indians near the water in exchange for their corn. We also, apparently, gave them fish/turkey to eat — alongside a cornucopia filled with small snacks and had a fine meal. Pumpkin pie! That was the first Thanksgiving, served hot more than 400 years ago — or 300 — no one really knows. Since then we’ve taken this tradition and kept to its centered purpose, to pack tightly into one house and SUPER SPREAD the COVID-19 virus.

Yours truly will be presiding over the stove, master chef at work, toiling hard to perfect his already perfect stuffing — alongside several other things. I enjoy to cook because it gives me something technical to do and because I’m not slothful and prefer industry over rest.

This is not a blog post to do with being thankful, or cornily (double entendre alert!) praising the merits of my fucking readers. No thanks to any of that. This is a thankless job and you readers have had it too good for too long. Fuck off. Nevertheless, I can see how you might be thankful — having chanced across this small corner of light in a sea of darkness — provided with sagely (double entendre alert!) advice during a place and time when the world is bat-shit nuts. On that point, I am NOT THANKFUL for this era I live in and certainly not thankful to Pfizer, Moderna and all of the other fucked faces trying to stick me with needles. Along that train of thought, I am NOT THANKFUL (all caps for psychotic emphasis) to most of the people on Twitter. I hate you. I truly do. Come to think of it, I’m definitely not thankful for a fuckload of things and often wonder if I am more thankful or less?

Being thankful for things denotes comfort and, dare I say, laziness. I want MOAR, which is why I trade like a banshee and scheme up new ways to make money at every chance afforded to me. Being thankful for shit is on par with saying “this is good enough for me.” INCORRECT SIR. I will not acquiesce to these small offerings and accept them as payment in full. I request MOAR.

Over here in Cary, NC the weather has moderated. It’s a comfy 55 degrees, warm enough to walk the dogs but cold enough also to place the cider to chill on the deck. My daughter is here from college and my eldest son will be in attendance too. This is the first year two of my children have left the house — leaving behind the youngest who is a good boy but with terroristic tendencies.

Alas, I could write forever and it would be a waste of my time and thoughts — frankly speaking. I wish you GOOD LUCK on this Thanksgiving Day and hope you find it to be acceptable. Comport yourselves like gentlemen, be sure to wind up your pocket watch (to tell the time moron) and don’t drink too heavily. A gentleman of any substance never permits others to see the cracked veneer of complete authorization patriarchal control.

Cheers.

Look at the retailers today and in recent days — absolutely fucked in the face. Many of you were obliged to be long retail into MUH BLACKENED FRIDAY because MUH EVERYONE IS GONNA SHOP. Once you stop being stupid, then you could be smart. The idea that you should do what is expected of you is of course slow and fat, also sad. Stop pretending you’re special and you have a “certain something” to predict share prices, based upon some Hollywood induces “magical feelings.” None of that shit is real in the real world. What ends up happening is you get lucky once or twice and then believe your own bullshit en route to zeroing out the account.

If you want to last in this game, and not come and go like a whore, attempt to diversify your holdings, moving them often, keeping abreast of trend changes, and being humble enough to know that when you bought XYZ it wasn’t personal and when it went down on you it also wasn’t personal. None of this shit matters, other than the bottom line result.

To be diversified doesn’t mean owning a bunch of stocks. It means owning different stocks in different industries. Try to mirror your portfolio against the S&P 500 sector weightings for starters, with these principal sectors: Basic Materials, Consumer Goods, Healthcare, Industrials, Services, Technology, and Utilities.

Once you figure that out and have a good feel for the best stocks in those respective industries, you’re on your way towards the highest probability path towards wealth creation — which is compounding returns over the next 20 years.

I know this isn’t a popular thing to say in an era with fucked faces on Discord chats with hordes of other fucked faces following each other in headlong a variety of micro capped stocks — to pump and to dump — while at the same time “diamond handing” and “Aping” into call options en route to one billion dollars of net worth. The more likely scenario doing that is fucking zero. Any questions?

Ok, need to get back to trading. The Fed is talking shit now, fears of stagflation.

At 4am I was down 30bps. When I checked in on my leveraged to the upside portfolio filled with dynamite sticks at 9:30am, I was down 2.3%, spearheaded lower by SOXL. I just sold it all for a gain of 0.66%.

While it’s possible we continue to ramp, I much prefer the fat middle. Don’t worry, I’ll trade and attempt to juice the returns. But as a prisoner of trends and someone who day trades, I’d be insane not to take these gains and count my blessings for this fucking chart.

In my experience, things tend to slow down a bit from 11-2pm, so consider this a pause and also an opportunity to be thankful.

More on this later.

I had trepidation. I started off the day bogged down heavy in losses thanks to ANF and URBN — 14% losers. I capsized into the morning crescendo, liquidating my longs and keeping my shorts — off 1.5%. As the markets turned lower, my fortunes reversed. Being greedy, I operated with precision throughout the session, mostly on the long side and closed +0.55% — now ALL IN — slightly leveraged with a bias for tech.

It’s important to note, markets do not collapse into National Festival.

As we embarks into turkey and gravy, I like my chances for a ramp. I would like to note the sudden horrific downside action in many retail names post earnings, such as JWN, URBN, ANF and BBY. Gross margins are getting gobble gobbled and it’s only a matter of time before we pull back and for good.

Nevertheless, instead of being a moron and basing my investments on lunatic predictions of the future, I’ll take it day by day.

For now, as it stands, all seems well.

I managed to erase my losses via some plucky trading and also my shorts, having sold out of FNGD and UVXY, but added to TZA. At the moment, I only own a 15% position in TZA and BITO calls — a dastardly combination but a combination nonetheless.

The trillion dollar question is — is this recent sell off in SAAS and other high valuation names a mere blip on the radar or something much much more. While my innate bearishness always pulls me towards the dark side, I cannot sit here and tell you “it’s over” with so much strength in banks and oil and bounces in numerous tech names. It is tempting to want to believe it’s over — but alas — when has it really ever ended?

We are in fact trading and I am in fact building a long list of names shot thru the chest the past week or two, in a sincere effort to attempt at timing the bottom. Stocklabs is NOT oversold and that signal might provide me with enough digital muscle to go headlong into this foray.