I bet you thought I was done going higher when I reported earlier I had made a little more than 2%. You’d be wrong to bet against me then and you’d be wrong to bet against me now.
I preside over you with the skulls of my enemies in tow — +318bps for the session — thrusting me back into the green for the month of December.
My strategic holdings account, which is designed for longer term ideas, ebbed higher against by 69bps — lifting gains for the month of 5.5%.
I am fixed to go higher — permanently bullish — fully long with cash reserves of 25%. Just one day ago I had been imposed upon by markets, downtrodden and ridiculed with scorn for having missed out on all of the deals. But now you see, and it’s as clear as the moon landing was a fake — The Fly is everlasting in his winship. The very fact that I was down should’ve made you run into the Stocklabs chatroom to see what I would do next — because I don’t ever fucking lose and when things seems to be going poorly for me — BAM — I come back with a vengeance and sever all of the stupid heads bobbing in my way.
Year to date, my gains stand at 56% — providing me with a 3 year average return of 112%.
At the onset of trade by heavily leveraged portfolio was down 75bps and I said to myself “all is not lost Fly. The Gods have never let us down before — except for that one time they wiped up the fuck out clean.” I turned off the monitor and turned it back the fuck on at 10:30am up 200bps.
See pal, that’s how it’s fucking done. You turn off the monitor down and turn it back on screaming higher.
Always gracious and with poise, I went to cash and then took a barbell approach to things, long $GUSH and $LABD in equal measure as a temporary holding pattern before I re enter the tape a champion.
I EXITED THE MARKET HEAVILY LEVERAGED LONG, MOSTLY DEGENERATE STOCKS — WITH THE IDEA OF DESERVING TO MAKE MONEY.
I AM WRITING TO YOU IN ALL CAPS DUE TO A SENSE OF URGENCY AT HOUSE FLY. I AM DOWN NEARLY 4% FOR THE WEEK, HAVING SHED ANOTHER 0.34% TODAY. THE WAY I AM POSITIONED NOW, I STAND TO MAKE 5% TOMORROW AND WILL THEN LIVE HAPPILY EVER AFTER IN PROFIT AND GOOD SPIRITS.
FUCKING OFF FOR NOW. KEEP ME IN YOUR MOST SINCERE PRAYERS.
All of this waffling has me sick to my stomach. I took most of the day off to reflect upon the drinks I had last night and also about markets. I am rarely if ever free from thinking about them. I dream about them nearly every single night, so lucid that at times I wake up and was unsure if it was real or not.
On most night, however, I have nightmares of the frightful sort.
At any rate, today did it for me. The melt up we are boring witness to in many areas of the market, coupled with the weakness of oil, leads me to believe the bull market is back and this time I will not quit on it.
If the market pulls in on Monday, as some bull markets tend to do on occasion, I will remain steadfast against the waves and remain stoic. I will of course adhere to proper risk management but the idea I am trying to convey is that my mind has been flushed of the bearish elements and I am now, officially, a bull.
Most likely, you will, again, take this blog as affirmation of a top and attempt to ridicule me for flippe flopping. Know this, I will find you and skin you alive, so be careful about getting on my wrong side.
I was warned many times about pressing my luck into the month of December. I do believe I even warned myself back in November. But the stupid child in me wanted to believe in fanciful things, praying for Santa Claus to bring me great gifts of joy because I was a good boy in 2023. I went online an professed this belief — was called names in the comments section, such as, but not limited to, “you bastard catamite fucker — you have marked thee top Sir.” I ignored these dire warning and pranced about my office waiting for Santa to bring me joy.
As a matter of fact, the very afternoon I pranced away from my terminal to grab a cup of Joe and something sweet. I had loaded up to the gills with all of my favorite stocks. You should’ve seen me out there — face lit up with excitement and wonderment — thinking about the spoils to come. When I returned back with my cup of Joe I was stunned to learned my entire portfolio had COLLAPSED with the fucking market — swooning lower in aggressive, but methodical, fashion. I did nothing but look at it — remembering the halcyon days of last week — pining to do it over again — wanting to get those higher prices back.
I was lower by 150bps and my losses for the week fast approached 4%. The important backdrop in all of this is — my longer term accounts were UP today and UP for the week, which essentially means I’m trading in moronic fashion, the brain of an elf — an NPC robotically drifting through space and time without internal monologue.
In short, you were right and I was wrong and now I do believe I’ve paid for my transgressions and made the ship right — heavily hedged crossed against some volatility longs and betting against the fucking NASDAQ again as if my face were on fire.
This whole ordeal is nothing new, as I have been publicly blogging in one form or another since 2001. I’ve made great calls and some really bad one’s. The way I am able to sell without regret is I punish myself mentally into thinking that I no longer deserve to own it since my timing was wrong.
Inside of my mind, a conversation like this occurs:
“Nice job fucked face. You really made an asshole out of yourself here. You know it’s going lower. Pax American is over.”
Fuck you pal — nothing is over — wait until the closing minutes. We will get it all back, and much more.”
“You will get nothing back and you know it. Sell now or else I’m going to cut your hands off to prevent you from ever trading again.”
“Fine, but fuck you.”
No need to seek therapy when I have one of my own right in my head.
Markets don’t like these prices and have punished those who chased into the morning fray. We are seeing a plunge in the very risk on names I alluded to in my earlier post, whence I claimed to have visions of the future and me in it celebrating amidst pomp and circumstance. Do not fear for me, as I am only off by 20bps. I have a hedge in place and want to assure you that I am a professional of the highest standing and will not be tricked.
I will tell you this — if you’re chancing upon this market slipping deeper into the crevasse, perhaps losing an arm along the way — you have another thing coming pal. The magical hour from 2pm to 3pm looms in the not so distant future, sporting a 75% win rate since November.
I have an urge to apply massive risk in order to achieve a feeling of success. It’s not about the money, since I’ll never take any out of the market. But, I will not do it. You have my word. I will stay the course and plod along quietly in the tall grass, eagerly waiting for a baby zebra to separate from the pack, at which point I will mercilessly chase it down and sever its stupid zebra head from its stupid zebra body and then I’ll eat it for all of the other zebras to watch in horror, as I satiate my desire for success.
All jokes aside, I love this action. Inside Stocklabs I have a lot of volume centric tools, as I’m obsessed with trading momentum. All year there volume spikes were missing from the market, up until recently. My delta screens are lit the fuck up and my spidey senses says “we’re gonna have a fucking Santa Claus rally.”
Fuck you in advance of suggesting this post marks “the top”, just like you did last night with my Bitcoin post, you miserable fucks.
I’m a force to be reckoned with, after all, not to be trifled with. At any rate, I leaned into this tape but am keeping 50% cash just in case. Should stocks flop, I intend to DOUBLE DOWN in all positions, as I am convinced Santa is real.
I just got back from cleaning an empty apartment from which my eldest son just moved out from. As I cleaned the toilet bowl and reflected on my life, I thought about Bitcoin and how great it was. With every spray of Clorox into the bowl and subsequent mist wafting into my face — I said to myself amidst the din of the bathroom fan — “you need to buy more.”
And so I shall.
For those unfamiliar with my track recourd — it’s mixed. When Bitcoin first established itself in the investment lexicon, I defecated on it — mocked and derided it as it crossed $100 for the first time. If you searched the archives of this blog, you will find me mocking it all the way until $10,000. And then I had a serious discussion with someone who managed serious money and he convinced me that it was real.
Back in 2020, I started a big position in $ETH and bought some every month for over a year and ended up buying as low as $120. Here was my first post on it. I ended up selling the $ETH as I bought it month by month in 2022 for a gain in excess of 1,700%. Essentially, I turned a small sum into a million plus. Many of you absolute FUCK HEADS followed me into this trade and got rich expressly due to my conviction trade and then CANCELED Stocklabs like ingrates later on. I remember all of you and will hunt you down like dogs in the after life to roast your faces into the fires.
At any rate, I entered back int cryptos earlier in the year in the mid $25,000’s and stand before you +75% from my original investment — but I think it has immediate upside back to RECOURD highs of high $60,000 based upon numerous factors, one of which is rooted in the idea that risk is inexorably on and the plebs are back at it making coin in the shitcoins again.
I got smashed to pieces today, off by 255bps, and I’ve never felt better. It started bad and ended bad and I feel as if I got the big down day out of the way and it’s nothing but net from here.
At the lows of the session, I was down by 3.4%, totally bedraggled in a coffin of my own making — but I never felt the pangs of despair that so readily accompany poor trading sessions. Simply put, I am master of my domain and one bad day cannot stop the train that I am driving because I am driving it straight to the fucking moon.
I know what some of you are thinking “oh fuck off Fly — you’re gonna get bogged again tomorrow.” But you’d be wrong. I closed at 75% cash, 5% $TZA.
If you want to know how I got myself into such a pickle — I increased my position sizes to 10% after being routed at the open. I tried a gambit and it nearly worked — but ultimately it failed and now I get to write about it.
RULE OF THUMB for traders out there. I have unlocked the perfect position size and have done so after experimenting with them for decades. The correct position size is between 5 and 6%. If you go smaller, your prowess is meaningless and you subjugate yourselves to the market. If you go 10%, you get bogged heavily on large down days. The perfect size is, and this is not up for debate, 5%.
Overall, I feel good. My health is very excellent and my mood superb.
US 10yr -11bps – bullish
Nasdaq up – bullish
$BTC above $43,000 – bullish
Large Cap tech up — bullish
Small caps -1.2% – bearish
Every sector is red – bearish
Breadth 36% – bearish
Over 200 stocks down 3% or more – bearish
Early going I was bogged and switched my positions to large capped and 10% weighted in an effort to capture back my lost coin. Initially it worked, as markets legged higher. But I didn’t take profits. I had reduced losses from -2.3% to 1.25% and then cannon balled the fuck lower back to session lows on the renewed downswing. I now stand before you entirely defeated -2.8%.
What should I do now?
I should shut the fuck up is what I ought to do — but I won’t. Because of my greed, I am now down 0.47% for December. This is the important perspective worth remembering. It’s a bad day and it can only get worse if I let it. What I am likely to do is greatly reduce my positions sizes and call it a day. I tried a gambit — but failed. I now risk taking a bad day into a much worse day, providing we cascade lower into the close.
It is very possible we have seen the highs for the year. It’s also possible the market isn’t done going higher. When markets are running on pure adrenalin it’s always guess work and that’s exactly what the market has been doing. We only default to long because market, over time, always trade up. But there are chasms in between that can ruin people and those ruinous events almost always happen when greed goes unchecked and risk aversion is discarded for grandiose visions of a deluded man.
The best course of action, at least in my experience, is t err on the side of caution — even if it means missing out on a rally you felt entitled to.