I don’t give a shit how you feel about Trump — this is some stupid shit. Incredulously, and in the midst of a pandemic breakout, Trump placed VP Pence in charge of the coronavirus response in America. What in the fuck is going on here?
I’ll tell you what’s going on. Narcism. This is how rich people act. When faced with an issue that is inextricable, they find fall guys — someone to shit upon. If Pence does good, Trump is a genius for appointing him. It’s all bullshit and people know it. He announced for a surprise meeting at 6:30pm today to discuss the virus. His plan was literally shit upon by Wall Street and now we’re really reeling.
Dow futures are OFF by 315, Nasdaq raped for 125.
Over in Germany, futures are lower by 2.4% and hilariously, Chinese equities are HIGHER by 0.4% — because that entire country is a scam.
The news is all bad, with breakouts all over the world, especially S. Korea and Italy. More specific to market stress is WTI and Brent crude, now crushed to $48. This will soon manifest itself by way of credit ratings and potential defaults for the oil sector.
Needless to say, we need some reflation and we need it soon. Do not be surprised to see the Fed ginning up some scheme soon. I sleep tonight with nearly 50% cash, short semis and FANG and long a shit load of virus stocks — but I too know this market rout can be suspended at any point in time with one presser from the Fed. My actual sense of the matter is, we deserve to trade lower by at least another 10%. Under those conditions, there is an enormous amount of money to be made short semis.
Listen to me. This isn’t going to be one of those obnoxious posts where I wax poetically about my gains. I merely attempted to do that on Reddit today with the FAGLORDS from WSB and was entreated to a sundry of “prove it with screen shot” requests. Truth is, I don’t care if you believe I made a fuck load of money on these ideas or not. None of that is really relevant. The size of my cock has nothing to do with the quality of woman I keep.
But I am in a zone, totally and completely prepared for the chaos you see enveloped around you. I prepared for the coronavirus weeks ago and did the research and know what the people want — because I run a very big and popular trading room in Exodus.
Sure, on occasion, these stocks break and halt and trade sloppily throughout the day — but the results are what they are and I am here to genuinely help. It’s not selfless of course. I am 75% through with our next iteration of Exodus, dubbed StockLabs. Go sign up for a beta trial now.
I quit managed money in order to pursue my dreams of running a legit data analytics platform for traders and I’m almost there. With my expertise in capital markets, I of course intend to leverage that to boost sales, which in turn will bootstrap me to scale operations and completely dominate the space. But that’s a discussion for a later day. For now we will discuss my positions and I will give them to you now.
My trades today.
Plenty of Exodus members did much better than me today, especially with VIR and CODX positions.
And here is what I like into tomorrow.
I’m 45% cash too, so I have room for error and to average down if need be.
Yesterday amidst the early morning splendor, bond yields got hit and I new it would sink stocks. Today is a different story, with the 10yr +3bps. We can bounce today.
The only caveat is oil, presently off by 1%. It needs to lift.
Also, the good folks from JPM have all but considered the virus to be something akin to a temporary phenomenon and have declared China will grow 15 fucking percent in q2.
China’s economy will bounce back from the coronavirus and grow 15% in the second quarter on a quarter-on-quarter, annualized basis, JPMorgan Chase’s Joseph Lupton told CNBC on Wednesday.
Lupton, a global economist for the bank, said on “Squawk Box” he is projecting negative 4% growth for the first quarter, when the coronavirus outbreak brought much of China’s economy to a halt.
“It’s not just looking at things still depressed. It’s looking at where the bottom is and are we starting to march our way upward?” Lupton said.
Lupton said 15% quarter-on-quarter annualized growth could be possible, in part, by the depths of the first-quarter decline. “If you get a rebound that’s happening, even if you’re still down 30%, if you were down 50%, that’s a 20 percentage point move that actually starts to impact growth not just in the second quarter but even in the late first quarter,” he said.
Fuck off and whatever.
Virus stocks are higher in the pre-market, but they usually trade lower with stocks higher. It’s a fluid situation, as always. Just find solace in knowing China’s GDP is going to grow faster than ever soon. Super cool!
Be afraid. Soon the virus will be here and markets will seize up because commerce will grind to a halt. The market is only now understanding the gravity of the situation and that is now being reflected in share prices. But we’re just getting started.
Congrats, we’re now at Jan 2020 levels. December 2019 levels takes the NasCRACK down to 200, or 8% lower from here. That’s my short term target.
Today, trying to be clever, I made a variety of moves. Here are the results.
The TNA and SPCE trades were poor attempts at me trying to catch a bounce. What I should’ve done is stand firm with my overnight SOXS position. Nevertheless, I did catch a day trade in APT for +28% and 48% from shares I bought a day or so ago. Who remembers these things anymore? The one constant in all of this is cash. I have lots of it — now about 40%.
In short, we dive into the close and dive again tomorrow, amidst the sorrow and the angst. The virus is coming and so are the margin clerks.
As much as I would prefer to see the stock market drop 10,000 points today, it’s very likely to bounce. This is the nature of the beast — the path of maximum pain. In this instance, pain is being applied to early dip buyers. After said dip shitters get bogged the fuck out for their entire accounts, markets will bounce.
So how do you play it, small pleb?
With my money, I like macro leveraged ETFs — because I have a large cock. TNA or maybe SOXL is my speed. For you, perhaps options or maybe a little SPCE hi-jinx ahead of earnings?
One thing is for certain, the second fuckers commit to being bearish, the Fed or some other government hand will absolutely rape short sellers again, sending markets to record highs amidst the Black Plague and death and famine by locust.
Earlier on, I day traded in and out of SOXS for +2.6%.
Right now Nasdaq futures are +70 and virus stocks are down in the pre-market. It appears the crisis has passed us like a ghost ship in the night and we’re all faced with the lovely spectacle of Robinhood investors making their fortunes vis a vie idiotic option gambits gone right!
However, bonds yields are slightly lower again, which speaks volumes about the tone of the smart money here, presently hiding and cowering in ultra-low yielding government obligations. There is very little risk appetite out there now, aside from the millennials making mockeries of themselves on WallStreetBets each and every day. Nevertheless, who am I to poke fun at the new generation of traders, while I was just as crazy and idiotic when I had my start in the business. I am merely taking part in the old human tradition of casting aspersions onto people younger than me. But truthfully, I am not really worried about the millennials. The Gen Z’ers are the ones we need to fear. Those bastards don’t care about anything but gender fluidity and other asinine subject matters, all pertaining to the toxic cancel culture that is part of their every day lives.
What fucking rubbish.
I am not impressed by a small dip following a TITANIC decline. If bond yields don’t rise, the rally will fail.