Assessing Current Rotations in Equities

Another day passes by in the grandiose life of Le Fly, partaking in all sort of stock market winships, whilst at the same time subjected to Mrs. Fly oriented house chores. On the agenda today is the old cleaning out the garage and some “light gardening”, which will entail power washing and tending to the gardens and all matters of things swirling in her brain. I could simply decline these tasks and tell her “do you have any idea who I am and what you ask of me?” but that would not be a good intermediate term investment for yours truly, as I would almost assuredly fall prey to Mrs. Fly reprisals.

Before I delve into the market, I first wanted to chastise the bears out there for being so stupid and viewing the market through the prism of politics. The market isn’t the Biden administration, or the Fed for the matter. Well, maybe it’s a little bit of the Fed. But my point is, the market is a game and to play this game correctly you need to check your hubris and your bias at the door, else remain, inexorably, retarded.

I am now going to highlight some of my proprietary technical algorithms for some major sector ETFs and respective time frames. What I am trying to communicate to you, a largely moronic audience of grifters and spendthrifts, is factual evidence of rotation.

1 Week Algo (worst 0 to 5 best)
$KWEB 4.17
$IBIT 1.84

2 Week Algo
$KWEB 4.05
$XBI 2.27

1 Month Algo
$XLU 3.52
$XLE 2.39
$SMH 2.42

3 Month Algo
$XLRE 3.31
$XLE 2.29

6 Month Algo
$GDX 3.24
$JETS 2.45
$XLE 2.45

YTD Algo
$SMH 3.19
$KWEB 2.49

1 Yr Algo
$SMH 3.11
$KWEB 2.43

See how I just gave you some holy grail level information and it did nothing for you? It’s like banging on a fucking gong, producing nothing but a giant annoying echo, shades of the orient.

Look pal, I have things to do, lawns to maintain.

Ciao.

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Listen to me,

These are the very best of days in the market. If you are cavorting the market place in puts, straddled in burlap cloth attire and only interested in gold, you should go fuck yourself. This is a BULL MARKET and only men are allow to trade it.

What do I mean by that?

Women should refrain from partaking and instead go into the kitchen to bake pies.

There are two types of people in this market, those who made +134bps for the session and those who did not. I feel sorry for you. I really do. But the truth of the matter is, this is as good as it gets and you’re too stupid to figure it out.

It sort of reminds of a conversation I had with a good friend recently who thought Kirkland’s ground coffee was “the best” coffee out there. I sort of chuckled and said “I’d send you some quality beans to taste what good coffee really is, but you wouldn’t know the difference.”

Do you know what I am saying?

There is only one Señor Tropicana, the rest of you are simply existing in my program.

Good day.

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People often ask me why I sell everything at the opening tick and here is why.

Look at the price action from 9 to 11am.

Some of the declines are extremely deleterious, ranging with 1% drops in a single hour.

Whilst it’s true, turning over an account 1,000% in a year isn’t exactly tax efficient, it’s also true that losing money isn’t either. These pervasive trends make it difficult to hold morning rips and because of this I will continue to fade the morning rips.

At any rate, I am 100% cash, +93bps for the session, now sitting with YTD gains in excess of 19%. Some people also ask me why I am showcasing pedestrian returns for the year and if you don’t know by now the answer is transparency. A 19% gain, regardless of what markets are doing, is a spectacular annual return to compound my account by. If you look at the Barclay’s hedge fund index, that’s up just 9.4% YTD, meaning the highest paid and most aggrandized PMs are barely up double digits. That is not to bedraggled them any more than already needed; but the point is to demonstrate a process I take and to show the good with the bad because that’s what trading is.

Bear in mind, this account was started at $100k in 2020 and this is where it is now, utilizing zero options or futures and with position sizes of 2 to 6%, many times in cash and often hedged to withstand the barrage of sell orders that comes every so often.

I’d tell you “if I could do it so could you” but that’s simply not the truth, as I am genetically superior to you and possess innate skills that permit me to function at a very high level.

GOOD DAY.

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I had a busy day but still managed a gain of +52bps, due to proficient and excellent trading. My YTD now stands at 18.2%. Whilst that number is admittedly in line with the broader indices, I’d like to remind you of this.

Good Sirs/wives of Good Sirs,

You and I are not the same breed of human.

Quickly, I think we have a multifaceted opportunity here with AI, AI databases, and lastly AI power plants. Along the latter chains of power plants, we are looking specifically at nuclear, since it is the best and cleanest form of energy production, save the occasional catastrophe.

You see companies like $CEG, $VST and $TLN cutting deals with $MSFT, $ORCL and $AMZN. Well, this is likely only the beginning of such deals and soon you will learn about plans to convert old coal plants to nuclear, realizing 30% savings in construction costs. Like most trends, I am on top of this one and view the utility space with fresh eyes now, as demand for energy rises thanks to AI and EV.

Some interesting names in the space include $CEG, $VST, $TLN, $PEG, $BWXT, $FLR, $GEV, just to name a few.

“The Fly” is at RECOURD highs and remains at recourd highs, whether you like it or not. I closed with a long book, no hedges, 25% cash, focused on energy.

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This is a temporary trade, since we are awaiting an Israeli strike on Iran. Biden said today he was discussing with Israel ways to strike at Iranian crude. If so, the places to be during these events are as follows:

Oil tankers, since they will enjoy elevated day rates to compensate for the risk premium.
Oils, duh
Chems: Iran is an exporters of chemicals

Volatility: since we are unaware of how this might unfold, it’s best to be safer than sorrier and remain long a little volatility, in the event of NUCLEAR WAR! I am kidding on the nuke part, but not about $UVIX.

Lastly, there is an array of stocks holding up well in this tape, such as $ACN, $ORCL,$CENX (war trade), $ICE and a sundry of utilities. Did you know $CEG is reopening 3 mile nuke plant? Indeud.

+4bps for the session, eagerly awaiting the next pivot, 35% cash.

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In lieu of Israel attacking Iran, I’m bullish on oil and maintain a position. However, once this song and dance finishes, I’m getting out of oil. It has been a dead asset class for two years and the upside is capped, partly thanks to the proliferation of Chinese EVs.

I’m in a cautious position, 43% cash, short $IWM and the rest long a pastiche of somewhat diverse names, off by 22bps. I had nearly 9% in China names at the open and took those for losses, following last night’s pullback in the Hang Seng.

In regards to the port strike, this is something that should concern you as it can quite literally destroy Christmas. We don’t hear much about it now because it just started. But after a month or two, you’ll be crying like little bitches. To invest for this, think foreign and think local; extricate yourself from companies dependent on a global supply chain into those respective ports.

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It took a minute to find my salient but I am in it now and I am effectively bowling on you clowns, out working, out sprinting, outsmarting the competition. I closed the session at another RECOURD high, now nearing +18% for the year.

I am directionally bullish and long some China names into tomorrow, but with less emphasis due to reduced position sizes of 3%. I maintain 34% cash and a 6% hedge in $TZA, moderately sashaying into the summer breeze and champion amongst perverted catamites.

I will have you know, I know exactly what I am doing and in command of my emotional intelligence and immune to the pangs of the industry, beating you across your brows, reducing you to mere fortune tellers and gamblers. I bet on sure things pal because I am all in on Le Fly, aka Senior Tropicana, streaking now in the picturesque sky, destination greatness.

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I went to 100% cash because I don’t trust tapes where Chinese stocks are +100% in a week, coupled with new wars that involves major oil producers and also with the port strike underway. I’m bullish, but not stupid.

Part of me was angered to book gains of +66bps on an otherwise glum day because I was +170bps pre market and wanted those gains back. But I reminded myself they were never mine to begin with and the only thing that mattered was what I had right now and what I could do in the future.

For me, the future is very very bright and I’ll be able to manifest more gains and navigate the tape with the professional acumen that comes natural to me.

At any rate, I’lol jimmy back in later, after things settle down.

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I want to communicate something that is important. We all have been angered and irritated by the management of western nations and the subsequent results of their malicious intent. It’s important we be honest when assessing things, because lies serve no purpose other than to live in a deluded fashion. The Globohomo is winning and will most likely continue to win for the balance of our lives.

It seemed like there was a window of opportunity in 2016 and again in 2022; but the sequence of events that have transpired since makes it abundantly clear that opposing their hegemony will lead to injury. I am not saying it’s over or that you should stop fighting for freedom; but you should realize they don’t play fair and they make the rules, so they’re arbitrary.

Trading in this environ, from an American point of view, is easy and mostly mundane, at least for me. In a session wrought with tumult and angst, I came out the other end down just 12bps, due to some smart positioning in $SOXS and a series of China stocks. I have an 8% hedge in $TZA; but do not have a bearish disposition.

It is precisely days like today that make the difference between the sedentary portfolio instructed by know nothing advisors and Sir Le Fly, the greatest, bowling on these clowns since 2007.

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This morning’s collapse and my subsequent moves out from high beta to low paired with a well timed $SOXS hedge at 12% of assets have reduced my losses from 90bps to just 30bps. I am only 2.5% $TZA, the rest long, on a day where the fucking NASDAQ is careening through the floorboards, and much more.

There is no wall of worry, as Wall Street is spoiled via FOMC moves and fear is non existent. Happenings in the Middle East is accelerating with lots of kills by the IDF paired with incredibly tough talk out of Iran. The level of incompetence by Israel’s enemies is front and center and the chasm between their abilities could not be wider. The problem for Israeli’s enemies is akin to be afflicted with Dunning Kreuger, whereby the feeeeeeel they can win but in reality they cannot.

My opinion on the market is slightly changed, with more of an emphasis on lower beta stocks rather than super risky stuff. I am sensitive to the market winds and find I do best in tapes, such as this.

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