The Gains For November Might’ve Already Been Had

I’ve been saying this feels like 2018 price action. If that’s the case, consider the fact Nov 2018 closed up 1.7% for the month and we’re already up 3%. Also, Nov 2018 was wretched up until the end. Perhaps some strong BLACK FRIDAY data bailed it out. You damn well know this BLACK FRIDAY will be featured in 3D, with hordes of people robbing stores blind. They’ll rush into stores, just like before, but this time they’ll loot everything in sight.

Nov daily price action, 2018

I closed out all of my positions in trading except for the $TZA; and I’m higher by 45bps. The gains are in large part thanks to $MSTR, as $BTC careens higher. I’m a big fan of Bitcoin.

The other notable concern today is the price of oil is rebounding, providing succor to an otherwise pathetic cadre of big oil investors. For all of the hype, oil has been a fantastic disappointment for more than a year.

We never did get the big spike to $150.

Lastly, rates are higher by 5bps. Keep your beady little evil eyes on them and be mindful the market might’ve already achieved the gains for November. We might even backslide a bit until after Thanksgiving to get a better look at holiday sales and shrinkage.

The $SPY closed up for an 8th consecutive session, extending gains for November to a ribald +4.5%. On the other hand, in the housing tenements of the $IWM — it sank lower for a 3rd consecutive session — reducing its gains for the month to +3.25%.

This is not unusual and has been the custom for some time now — with the S&P 500 up 14% for the year and the Russell 2000 down 2.5%. The reason being: companies in the S&P are well established money makers — houses of refined repute, whereas the Russell is bedraggled by small capped money losers accelerating into perdition with every FOMC hike.

The easy trade is to remain long free cash flow winners against the losers and continue to be merry and happy, as the world burns around you.

I closed the session down 18bps and barely felt the need to really trade today. It was my day off.

I did close the session with a 15% weighted position against the small caps paired wonderfully with an array of hand selected longs, such as $LLY.

The story for both $NVO and $LLY is as follows: people are fat fucks and cannot stop eating, so they are attracted to expensive drugs that PARALYZE their stomachs to decrease the burden of hunger. Their stomachs stop working and food sits idle inside them for weeks, enabling the fats to lose some weight due to lack of appetite. This has caused the share prices of $LLY and $NVO to rather ironically expand in a post COVID world — big pharma at it again with new schemes to cajole the money out from the purses of the catamite class and into theirs.

Mrs. Fly likes to tell me “you haven’t worked since the early 2000s” — referring to the time I decided to quit working for other people. But she really does think I do little other than bring in large sums of money, which, seemingly, fall from the sky into her wallet. She used to tell me that “anyone can go out there and make $250k” and that if she wanted to — she could do the same.

Who can argue with such madness?

There is some truth to what she says, however. When I was younger and less secure, I’d posit theories that “working with the brain is more taxing on the body than manual labor.” At the time it seemed like a nice way to defeat her, tossing obscure pseudo science into her lap just to see what she’d do with it. But her natural instincts are very good and I’d quickly lose that argument too. It wasn’t until I hit my 40s that I realized that being stoic and unflinching in the wake of turbulent waters was the best remedy to defeat chaos.

I take a similar approach to my trading. When I’m on I cannot stop trading and can, at times, over trade myself into lunacy. There isn’t a pause button on me so the only way to remove me from the trading turret is to do something else. At times a good nap is in order. Other times I’ll read book in my library whilst listening to baroque era music. Today I did exactly that and didn’t bother trading the market, since my body is taxed from all of the toil I’ve been enduring using my brain to trade effectively.

Perhaps today I’ll remind Mrs. Fly how difficult a job I have, always on call, just like a doctor, to help others manage their affairs — tweeting on X — and writing important blogs that will one day be inspected by future generations as to the mental capabilities of our people.

At any rate, I’m heading back to the trading turret now to gun down some fucking bulls. Wish me luck.

With the VIX under $15, I like my chances betting on upheaval and took out a long position on volatility into the bell. The only other positions I have now are $ANF and $MSTR — plays on the white economy and Bitcoin.

It’s true, my gains are fantastical and I make it look very easy, almost in a cartoonish like fashion. I come on here and talk extreme shit, post things all day that make half the people angry at me, and still continue to win at a rate and speed that defies logic. My enemies are hoping for me to wander off to an insane asylum somewhere and lose my touch trading — bear witness to me and my family falling into squalor.

Good Sirs —

I’ve been off the plantation for some time now and have never conformed with or adhered to any of the social norms you hold dear. I cannot and will not be stopped, just like you’d never be able to stop a shark from eating smaller fish when hungry. I am hungry and wish to eat, so I will. If you attempt to stop me, I will eat you too (extra cannibalism).

The world is a confusing place today, with cross currents that make us love and hate everything to extremes. On one hand we are gaslit with attacks and government propaganda by who we deem to be craven and evil people. On the other, we rather like and enjoy the modernity and the comforts they offer. We have built grande and eloquent civilizations before and will do so again. I suppose we are now in the midst of a transitory period whereby people have become alerted to their identity. With these new societal traits, fractures will soon become apparent — and then we will collapse. I give America 10-15 years maximum before roaming militias frequent the countryside in a lawless land, full Civil War.

Detractors might say “things have always been bad but we always seem to improve.” But this isn’t true. The America you once knew and read about no longer exists. It will need to be rebuilt and the people who ruined this one will be quarantined, separating those who seek to build and those who endeavor to destroy.

For the session, I closed +57bps with 85% cash, in easy trading — as I am most comfortable in this type of tape — teetering with disaster and flirting with my RECOURD HIGHS of +50% for 2023.

We are ramping now and there is nothing the bear can do. They’re all there now, laying down and bleeding out — heads bashed in. They had a plan and it went sideways, as their plans always do. The bulls occupy all of Wall Street now, popping champagne, corks and all, into each other’s faces. Grand and elaborate celebrations — bringing back memories of great economies and even greater markets. Maybe this will turn into that too? Maybe just maybe XYZ will go to $1,000 per share making me the richest man that I know.

The truth is, unfortunately, the bears are immortal and after we kill them — they’ll just come back at us — again and again — taking bites off our weak — eating the really weak with savage appeal. This battle for supremacy will never end and at times it will seem to be over. How could it not? But then something will happen and we’ll all dance and sing again — like apes in banana trees cooling in the mist.

For now, the bulls are in charge. We have the Iranians in their box and the enemies of the GLOBOHOMO on the ropes. The LGBTQ flags are basking in the sun of every western capital and the transgendered bulls are urinating standing up in the ladies bathrooms — lipstick affixed, eye shadow and knee high stockings in tow.

I got right this morning upon seeing several things.

1. Rates were down.
2. SAAS stocks were up.
3. Commodities were down.

After I saw that, I closed my shorts and went to work buying up some longs. The day is young and anything can happen, but in my experience when SAAS stocks are strong you get a rally in the overall market.

The pressure applied to stocks is due to rates and how they stymie growth, since the cost of capital is high. Another factor is high commodity prices, which can hurt the consumer and also jack up the all important CPI. Today’s price action is exactly what the bulls want and I’d be shocked if we reversed lower.

I’m +30bps early going, recovered from early losses due to shorts.

Today was a day born in hell for the amateur trade, the young punks filled with hubris falling headlong into large vats of concrete.

Oil was 0.4%, but natural gas knifed lower by 7%.

The NASDAQ was higher by 0.3%, but the Russell 2000 was lower by 1.3%.

The VIX was slightly higher, yet the retarded UVIX instrument they give us was lower by 7%.

You must understand there are tricks being disseminated liberally and their target is you, the unwashed son of a bitch fool — who thinks he’s knows it all because he once traded his account from 10 grand to $100,000.

Well we’ve all done that old sport and there isn’t anything unique about river boat gambling and getting lucky. You can thrive when the sun is shining and the sea lanes are clear — but can you do it when storms of fire rain misery onto markets and nothing is what it seems? Can you do that son?

I have confidence some of you can and you’ll grow up to be great traders one day. But until I am past my prime and you’re still in diapers at the trading desk, “The Fly” presides supreme.

I closed the session higher again by 33bps, not tricked or fooled by the mixture of currents. I was neither angered or delighted by any of the news — just internalized it all and pushed it down deep into the bottom of my gut and used my eyes to see the market. Some of you think you see the tape — but you really don’t and the proof is my returns against yours.

The NASDAQ higher today extends the winning streak for the index to 22 of the past 24 weeks.

Into tomorrow, I have hand crafted longs hedged with short the NASDAQ, short the Russell, and short the fucking scientists in the biotech sector to satiate my desire to maintain control and to slow down the violent moves that rack the plebeian class of investor with outsized losses. I, Sir, do not partake in such frivolities.

On most days I want to execute the people I dislike according to the style of the music I am listening to. On some days I listen to baroque classical and on other big band jazz. According to the style of the music, I conjure up ways I’d dip my enemies into hot tar, or break their bones into dust against carriage wheels. But then I am transported back into real life and remember the wonderful meal I ate last week at one of my favorite restaurants, or the latte served at one of my favorite coffee shops, or the kindness bestowed upon me my strangers and ground myself in the resolute conviction that most people are good.

Humans create wonderful things and we make each other laugh, cry and vomit all over each other — based upon the caprices trending at the moment. I will admit to being blackpilled by the real time reactions to many people on X — but then again — I can recall many a time saying the most outlandish things only to be recanted later on.

It’s also important to remember the plebeian class holds little to zero sway over governmental edicts and the garrulous third estate likes to pretend their Tweets on X is causing some sort of revolution, when in fact they’re not. The institutions are the same and the same creatures who inhabited them before your tweet are there now collecting their wages to do dastardly things.

So what is the solution?

The answer is always happiness. One can achieve this in various ways: love, success, creativity, selflessness etc.

After these thoughts are published and sent out to the world, I will most likely immediately tweet something to gin up controversy or bring awareness to something that pisses people off. I cannot help it and it is in my nature. But it doesn’t help to hide the evils of the world and we all hope that one day is improves. We do not yearn for perfection — but order and safety and peaceful coexistence without spiteful people doing spiteful things.

For me, I find joy in trading stocks, writing, doing videos with my writing, finding new ways to create enemies — reading, listening to music (anything but rap is acceptable), listening to Audibles when in car or shower. I used to be something of a mixologist, but now focus more on health so booze is really out. I also used to smoke an estate pipe once per week or a cigar once per month — but I’ve limited that too since I do believe to be disciplined is to be content and nothing is worse than hedonism and doing what you like all the time.

I do drink coffee about 2 to 3 times per day; but I make sure not to enjoy it too much and would never add any sugar to it and really try to limit the amount of milk as well, since coffee black is the best version of coffee and the best version of black coffee is espresso or an Americano.

I’ll get back to market commentary in my next post.

Another day where the NASDAQ is higher and the small caps collapse. But the more important data point is the US 10yr +7bps. All of you retards were popping champagne corks into each other’s faces last week when rates came down. You said “duhhhhh, Powell and the Fed have our backs,” when in fact none of that shit is true. The Fed wouldn’t urinate on your flaming bodies if needed.

I opened up the session +45bps, thanks in large part to my supernatural abilities to see the market, at all times. I have 10% in $TZA and 44% cash, the rest in a pastiche of well placed longs.

My confidence levels right here for a strong move in either direction is low. Therefore I’ll wait until it breaks in either direction.

Ultimately, my job is now to retain the 6% returns I’ve achieved in November, grow them if easy, but maintain them at all costs. We are not river boat gamblers and aren’t desperate or deranged to the point of taking on too much risk for the sake of making all of the money now. We are gentlemen of the first order and comport ourselves with the dignity of our class, so fuck off.

Since this blog has been, more or less, one doom cast after the next for the past 3 years, I thought I’d mix it up and think ‘outside the box’ and offer you some glimmers of hope in an otherwise apocalyptic landscape.

The war in Ukraine will wind down peacefully, leaving Russia in the Donbas and Zelensky in Kiev, who will then be re-elected President to preside in Brussels as the newest member of NATO. We will then station nuclear missiles inside Kiev and battleships in Odessa to assert US hegemony.

The war in Gaza will end without any of its neighbors intervening. In the end, Israel and the US will convince and cajole, threaten even, Egypt to create a new city for Gazans. Israel will then settle the newly captured territories and continue working on the new trade corridor from China through Saudi Arabia through Israel into Europe.

With the wars concluded, the US can then focus on the real threats to the country: COMMUNIST CHINA and white supremacists.

We will arm Taiwan with nuclear missiles to prevent a Chinese incursion, whilst at the same time declare the “one China policy”, where we pretend to believe Taiwan is still part of China, to still be official US doctrine — all but gaslighting the Chinese to death. Since 20-30% of our Ivy leagues are populated by Chinese students, we might need to place limits on our “elite making institutions” in order to protect American democracy.

Lastly the issues of white supremacy must be stomped out for good. The final solution will be to mandate that at least 60% of government jobs and in the private sector employ “persons of color.” Reparations for the blacks will also be necessary by affixing a 10% tax to all whites for the sins of the people who had their skin color back in the early 1800s.

Protected groups will include gays, trans, law enforcement, and those married to a person of color.

With these new programs in place, the pervasive evils of white supremacy can finally be stomped out and Americans can continue to loot and shoot each other to their heart’s desire, without the annoyance of laws and order — liberal democratic ideals that produced slavery and Chinese railroad workers.