18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,622 Blog Posts

Do Nothing Friday: Eat a Sandwich

As a matter of fact, I don’t eat bread anymore. I don’t drink any form of alcohol, and I don’t eat sugary snacks. “The Fly” is now an austere man, circumventing life as a minimalist and lifting heavy objects at the gym daily — no longer partaking in unhealthy habits that are the root of ruin. I don’t spend money on things I don’t need and I rarely take outsized risks with my investments. My business, now being just the site and software, is run as a center of profit and not designed to burn cash in order to fuel growth in order to someday sell it to someone else. That sort of model is for someone else.

Everything I just mentioned about my person is the exact opposite of Fly from ten years ago, a person who spent ruinous amounts of dollars on luxury items, made outsized investments designed for clowns, and drank booze and indulged in sweets whenever the fuck he wanted to.

The longer you live the more you realize things. For many of you young punks, you probably have a father figure to teach you these things. I didn’t have any of that and had to learn thru the fires of error. If I could impart anything onto the next generation of investors, it is this.

Avoid the things that are common amongst failed people. While it might not happen to you on the scale that leads to ruin, it is unproductive and will not bring you happiness.

As for markets, nothing to see or do. I sold off some losers and have some cash to invest for next week.

As for the virus, I don’t what to think, other than wow.


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Bond Yields Have CRASHED to the Lows

In early 2016 they got down this low and then roared higher and once again we are here with the 10yr at 1.59%, down 5 bps wondering what it all means. The economy is supposed to be robust and big titted and strong. If it was, would rates be this low? I think not. Then again, profits are real and we’re raking in trillions. Businesses are firing on all cylinders. Monopolies go unchecked and we’re winning trade wars left and right, as our enemies deal with the plague.

Over in Europe, they still have negative rates, quite deep actually. If you have any decent sized account there, you’re paying a negative interest rate to your bank for the pleasure. This all gives me a sickened feeling in my gut, but alas — markets are at record highs and nothing seems able to disrupt it. Plus, and let’s not forget this, the central bankers have finally figured out how to eliminate the business cycle. No more boom-bust, just boom all the time because of excess liquidity.

Nevertheless, I have a mixed bag today, down on the day. Following my sojourn into virus stocks — I haven’t traded too well, aside from nailing the top in TSLA with puts.

I usually got to the gym in the morning, after taking my daughter to school. But today I slept in because her school was canceled and I feel great. I rarely get more than 4 hours sleep these days. About a decade ago, when I was a salamander like financial advisor, sitting poolside taking in the sun, I’d regularly get 7-8hrs per day and I never aged. Word of advice for the young punks reading this now, try to max out your sleep — it really does make a difference.

At any rate, back to work. Since I’m not making any money today I either need to cull some losers or find some winners.

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BEHOLD: The New StockLabs Summary Page

Not finished, obviously. I am curious as to what metric you value and would appreciate some feedback so that I can place said metrics on the summary page. What I have now will stream dynamically, adjusting to price movement, so anything static — like revenues or earnings would be an idiots choice.

Sign up for free access to beta trials here.

Off to the gym.

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No Cocaine: Markets Up But Fizzling — No Dazzle!

Looks like gold is the outperformer again, which is way under-owned by people…by the way. The commodity has held firm this entire run in stocks and is at recent highs. If it could ever get over $1600, it might be something to act upon.

To be honest, today is a big disappointment. Although I’m up and making some money, I expected a lot more — a cocaine rally for the ages. Instead, I get this… milquetoast.

A few IPOs today, including Casper the online mattress co. Call me olde fashioned, but I like to feel the mattress first before buying. And, how do they manage the expenses for shipping a fucking mattress? Seems like a scam.

Coronavirus blah blah blah. Lots of rain here in Cary. The weather is very mild, nearly 70, not missing the snow shoveling days of the northeast.

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Just when you thought markets might’ve topped, after seeing young girls take to Tik Tok to teach a new generation of imbeciles how to trade — the Gods blow cocaine into the faces of trade, by way of China.

China on Thursday announced that it will halve tariffs on hundreds of U.S. goods worth about $75 billion.

Tariffs on some U.S. goods will be cut from 10% to 5%, and from 5% to 2.5% on others, according to a statement from China’s Ministry of Finance. The adjustments will take effect from 1:01 p.m on Feb. 14, it said, without specifying which time zone it was referring to.

The cuts apply to about $75 billion worth of imports from the U.S. that was slapped with tariffs on Sept. 1, 2019, according to a separate statement on the ministry’s website. It was not immediately clear which products are covered.

The statement on the Ministry of Finance website said the move was made in order to “advance the healthy and stable development of China-U.S. trade. ”A separate article on the website noted the cut in tariffs was timed in conjunction with a U.S. decision in January to halve tariffs on Feb. 14 for $120 billion of Chinese goods from 15% to 7.5%.

China said that the next adjustment will depend on how Sino-U.S. trade ties evolve, adding it hopes to work with Washington to completely eliminate all tariff increases.

Not only did the democrats make a mockery of themselves with a failed impeachment gambit, fiasco in Iowa, now Trump is castrating them all by way of gargantuan stock market rallies and trade war wins.

So much winning, I can hardly contain myself. Look at me go.

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Dow Explodes Higher; Tech Stocks Wrecked

I’m through spelling wrecked incorrectly. It’s not only juvenile, but also fucking retarded. All of my stocks save 1 went lower — because tech growth got nailed to the wall, in spite of the Dow rising by nearly 500. Markets like today are most frustrating, but part of the narrative of man — which is to miss out. No one likes to miss out on all of the fun. It leaves a sinking feeling in one’s gut and causes us to make errors. While yesterday’s purchases might look like FOMO from your end, on my end, it was simply normalizing my trading account to its pre-virus conditions.

I’m heavily long SAAS and those stocks got wolloped today, in earnest, because of an earnings miss or two.

Without question, ZEN is heading for $100 and much more than that. In the SAAS sector, two stocks stand out to me most as long term holds: HUBS and ZEN. When they go lower, you should consider buying them.

Towards the end of trading, I bought two biotech stocks — because that’s where the fast money is. Speaking of which, and just to recap, I bought some TSLA puts yesterday at around $35 and sold them at $115. That trade saved my profit and loss today and for that I am eternally grateful to all of those longs out there who got sheered on the altar of Musk.

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Markets Post Big Gains — But Internals are SOFT

SAAS stocks are getting lit up because of PCTY and NEWR. This is partially sad because I own a bunch of fucking SAAS stocks. Good thing I kept some dry powder for average downs. Market is up 50 Nasdaqs, but it feels like it’s down.

Maybe I’m just in the wrong stocks, for today.

Speaking of wrong stocks, TSLA is getting lit up and I actually bought some puts yesterday, my first options trade since 2012. Why did I stop trading options? Long story, but let’s just say it brings out the gambler in me. I had the 2/7 900s — up a cool 220% from basis. Not a bad way to make a living — but I will admit it’s too enticing. If I could make these sort of percentage gains all the time, I’d immerse myself all the time in it and my life would be absolutely miserable. This will be the only options trade I do for the year. Maybe I’ll do one per annum.

As for my other positions, I’ll be a little patient (not too much) and think about buying more if they drop again tomorrow.

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WHO Downplays Alleged Chinese Breakthough For Coronavirus; Futures Don’t Care

Last night after the state of the union address, futures were slightly lower. Then about midnight, or possibly later, they fucking exploded on a report from Chinese media of a coronavirus breakthrough. Separately, UK scientist claim to have sequenced and now working towards a fucking vaccine, all in 14 days.

I’m too cynical and jaded to report on this type of stuff, especially when the WHO comes out and says ‘WHOA, fuck off, nothing to see here.’

The World Health Organization (WHO) has played down media reports of a drug breakthrough against the coronavirus outbreak, saying there are “no known” drug treatments against the virus.

“There are no known effective therapeutics against this 2019-nCoV and WHO recommends enrollment into a randomized controlled trial to test efficacy and safety,” WHO said in a statement on Wednesday.

“A master global clinical trial protocol for research and prioritization of therapeutics is ongoing at the WHO,” it added.

Earlier in the day (See 7:00 p.m. update), Reuters said a Chinese TV media outlet had reported that a research team at Zhejiang University had found an effective drug to treat people with the new coronavirus. The news agency, citing traders, suggested this was a reason for the move higher in stocks.

Separately, Sky News reported Wednesday that a scientist from Imperial College London had made a significant breakthrough in the race to develop a vaccine for the coronavirus. The vaccine is thought to be able to reduce the development time from “two to three years to just 14 days,” Sky said.

Nevertheless, futures have given up zero of their splendid gains and stocks look to chop hands and dicks off at the open. We’re looking at another 100 Nasdaqs when it’s all said and done. NO BIG DEAL. This is good, especially since I bought all of them stocks yesterday.

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A younger Fly would’ve held his shorts like a fucking moron and ignored the things on the screen, obstinately declaring my positions to be correct and the prices wrong. None of that shit matters, quite honestly. You can still see the world burn and you can still see $TSLA collapse, but why go against the grain to see those things happen?

I stepped in and allocated some funds, preserving 40% cash for average ins. I am leaning into SAAS and other tech names because they’re easy to trade and they correlate well with the broader markets.

I also bought some TSLA puts, merely for fun. I don’t think the stock is ready to collapse, but make no mistake — THIS IS BITCOIN 20k.

Ask me if I care about the money I invested in the puts. Ask me. Go ahead.

Fuck off.

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Markets Scream to the Heavens; “The Fly” Gets BOGGED

It happens. I had so many wins the past two weeks I placed myself into bear mode, trying to have my cake and eat it too. That’s the problem with fat people, always scheming ways to eat cake and look good too. You cannot have both. You can either look great and have abs, or you eat cake. Which will it be?

Life is a game of choices. Some of us do not have many choices, however. For example, one simply doesn’t choose to go to an Ivy League school or better yet one simply doesn’t choose to be smart. That comes with DNA. But you can learn to the point of being wise. You have a choice in the matter, especially when investing. You can make bad choices and keep repeating them, or maybe you can identify the issues with your choices and switch it up.

That’s the thing about intelligence and I don’t mean this to be too heavily philosophical — but often times the difference between the moron and the dimwitted is a matter of awareness. The moron is dumb and unaware, so he goes throughout life happy, fucking and drinking until he dies. He also thinks everyone else around him is an idiot, due to narcissistic tendencies. The dimwitted man is a tragic story, but not sad. He understands his limitations and purposely tries to improve his situation by self education, creating an air of sophistication around himself with books and hobbies, employing wisdom as a pseudo-intellectual replacement for actual intelligence. And he knows not to make the same errors over and over again, which is why he rarely heeds his own advice, but instead has learned to accept the advice of others. In a way, the dimwitted man has it made, enjoying the benefits of smarter men without the burden of making those decisions and being responsible for others.

You as the dimwitted man have a good life. You visit Le Fly daily, never meeting him in real life at all, and profit from his insight into capital markets — insight that has been honed and sharpened like a knife for decades of investment experience. But even I have a bad day, today being one of them.

I sold the following stocks today, and booked the losses.

(CPHI -20%)
(SOXS -8.3%)
(LABD -15.8%)
(JNUG -10.1%)

The silver lining is, I was 65% cash in my trading account coming into today, so those losses aren’t magnified by leverage or anything. And, if I might say so, my trading account is only 25% of my overall portfolio, the rest is invested fully and enjoying the nectar of today’s supple rally.

HOWEVER, I do not take lightly this sojourn into loss. The CPHI, for example, was a 25% winner yesterday and I watched it sour and go bad almost immediately after markets opened today. The X factor here is greed and I must be mindful not to permit base behavior, the inner beast in me, get the better of me.

Does the market go higher? No real idea. I’ll just judge it on a stock by stock basis and buy what I like when I like to.

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