The market appears to be doing very little, but under the shit veneer is a very strong tech tape — also alt energy. These are stocks that embody and personify risk. You’d be wise to cover your shorts now and get long.
I have reallocated back into the market, to a limited degree. I am 38% cash, money reserved for the event I need to hedge should things go wayward. The market isn’t healthy and there tape isn’t strong, but one can be optimistic when seeing traditionally risk on stocks moving higher.
On the other hand, the energy trade, save uranium, has stalled. Rates have dropped and the trade looks tired, replaced by tech. It is possible the trade re-ignites tomorrow and it’s important to remember one day does not make a trend.
Nevertheless, into the final hours of today, I feel optimistic for a melt up.
Always fade morning pumps. How many times do I have to tell you? I cleaned out everything with exception to my BABA common and calls and then sat back for 10 minutes and bought two more stocks — one of which was the upside ETF for gold NUGT.
It should be noted, I was not hedged into today due oversold signals for both SPY and QQQ flashing in Stocklabs. That was the only reason why I had confidence into the morning. After the morning jump, I was on my own and opted for safety. While in safety, I took the opportune to look at many of the gold concerns. I found their technicals to be different, busting loose even, so I took a position.
I have several ideas into the afternoon session, but none of which involves me losing any money. I am +125bps now, more than double yesterdays loss and now +3.4% for October. I am positioned exactly where I want to be, in several carefully chosen position, making money and creating wealth carefully.
How bold of me. I exited the day 75% long and 25% cash. Dare I suggest the market might trade higher tomorrow? Every way I looked at it, I could not get myself to short, if even for a hedge. I closed out my SQQQ hedge late in the day and added to my longs.
I am long names like BEKE and CHPT and SE and ENPH and even TTD and ETSY — good stocks — some might say the best stocks given the tape. There are many others out there eagerly salivating for doom and would like to see nothing more than America’s cities set ablaze and the people in it trampled to death by zombie hordes.
While not a fan of post modernism Americana, I’d be bereft of guile to not attempt to take advantage of economic opportunity. My tell today was stocks like PLUG and BLDP and HUBS — lots of high risk stocks up and staying up all day.
Perhaps tomorrow I rue the day I was born and slink back into the darkest corners of my office and lament the decisions I made today. Or perhaps not. Perhaps you should shut the fuck up and stop believing doom is cast around each and every corner.
Nevertheless, I am talking my book and only request to see a small glimmer of hope into the open tomorrow, from which I might withdraw my profits and then begin a new campaign of collapsing America.
Will it last? For the second day in a row a severe drawdown from the highs in energy stocks is happening, albeit they’re still up. On average, energy stocks are off by 2.5% from session highs while at the same time SAAS stocks are running hot. While semis are still weak and the overall tone of the market still impaired, it’s worth noting rates are higher and there is a remarkable lift off in software stocks.
The contrarian might view this as fodder and instead buy more basic materials. This is what makes a market.
I am presently overweight tech and short the NASDAQ x2 — because bigger capped tech is lagging. I am tempted tp shrink my portfolio into the close and keep it small — for reasons that are obvious. Then again, perhaps the worst is behind us and we’re setting up for a Thanksgiving run to Valhalla.
If I had the answers I certainly would not give them to you. However, I remain dutifully committed to talking to myself here on this fucking blog to an audience of catamites and mountebanks alike. I will commit to a position by the close. I am down 30bps now and have no desire to push myself to any limits that might risk my position. I am done trading in and out of pennies and hate people who do.
“The Fly” is an austere investor now and only bets on sure things — possesses and time machine and uses it to his advantage, all for good. I am no longer allured by the specter of fast returns and generally unfollow people on Twitter who chase stocks around like dogs off chains.
BACK ON YOUR CHAIN and into your cages!
My hunch is for collapse. But my eyes speak otherwise.
I took the morning off. But before I did I liquidated most of my positions, tidied up a bit and left when exactly flat for the session. I have one hedge and several solar stocks and one or two oils and none of them, except the hedge, did well. While looking at the tape now, all I could see were all of the stocks I thought would go up in fact go up. For the past month or so this has been the root of my failures — missing out and then chasing and then stopping out for losses.
This time I am sticking to a plan, even if it means missing out on some fast money. I am down around 45bps now and as disheartening as that might seem, it’s really not much at all. What worse is taking 45bps and sinking downwards to -2% off the back of poorly timed and placed trades.
I am having an off day and I mean that literally. I will get back to the turret shortly and position, not for today, but for tomorrow.
The market opened swell and then heaved and tipped over and trickled down all day and into the final hours let loose to the downside — capsizing those who bought the open. The mood is grim and the Dow off by 250. No one likes the tape and it’s just more of the same — bullshit served up daily accentuated by a bull market in cryptos — leaving more and more people to give up on equities in search of warmer climes.
Ten Thousand suns cannot warm up the earth now, as we’re tethered to the turning of the leaves of October — colder weather and worse markets. We are almost assured destruction now and not much else can get in the way of it. I traded tight and narrow today, opting for only a few positions at a time. By the end of the session, I found myself 15% long SOXS with limited exposure to stocks — a hedged approach — finished at session highs of +145bps.
Le Fly was born to trade in these markets and I look forward to the black out of the sun soon and hell freezing over and all of the plebs who’ve done so well these past few years throw out into the maelstrom and stampeded into the earth and back into dust.
I thought we might’ve had something there — but no. I cleared out all of my positions except BABA leaps and bought some SOXS for the novelty, locking in a +125bps gain for the day.
I might re-enter towards the end of the day, but it will not be bold and it will be hedged. I am done (for now) with swinging for the fences in favor of a more methodical method. The market isn’t what we want it to be and it’s important we root ourselves in the reality of the situation instead of hope.
I’m biased towards the basic material trade and the oils are still up, but sharply off their highs. I’d rather buy back in at the end of the day, even if higher, than have to watch this shit tape churn and burn.
I went through a nightmarish sojourn into plebeian society and lost money during September, thinking my entire world was over and my talents gone like a 38 year old baseball player. I covered my shorts this morning and some longs, upped cash to more than 40% and presently sit with a rather ribald gain of 1.6%.
My gains could be MOAR and they could always be greater — but I am not being sucked into your depraved world of pennied stocks and failed momentum cycles again. I sit with several old man stocks, one or two Chinese burritos, and ag chem stocks — because the world needs food and the prices for everything is going up.
My oil exposure has been reduced to just 1 stock and I’d like to revisit several of the names I sold today — perhaps as early as this afternoon.
I am always wary of morning trade and prefer to lock in gains when I can and buy back later, especially after such a miserable month and my back up against the wall.
Thus far, this tape looks good and I see little reason to fear being long.
The commodity squeeze is on with full force into the winter freeze. Small plebs will freeze to death all across Europe and perhaps here too in the states, all thanks to imaginary supply chain disruptions caused by, inexorably, fuckery largess on behalf of corporate America who do not believe for fucks sake this demand can keep up and instead of hiring more plebs at $15 per hr opt to ride it out — causing backlogs and delays and sheer chicanery.
Now we have oil broaching $80 WTI en route without question to $100 and the US treasury yields are spiking, causing our retarded government to concoct more ways at servicing the $30 trillion they’ve borrowed for the sake of fulfilling the mandates brought forth by the Immigration Act of 1965.
Xmas is around the corner, but before that is Thanksgiving and a meat shortage will menace supply chains there too — possibly to the point of you being forced to carve a delicious BEYOND MEAT Turkey this year at the table. During Xmas, none of your things will arrive in time because ships from China cannot dock at the Port of Los Angeles due to 40 day delays caused by lack of port workers — and all of your children will cry because of it. You’ll need to come up with creative lies to explain why Santa Claus skipped over your house this year, or be brave enough to tell them they were in fact too naughty to deserve any gifts this year. All of this exacerbated by a bourgeois race towards tyranny — people being FIRED from their jobs, “essential jobs” — because they didn’t take the right medicine prescribed to them by the state in the time frame acceptable by the state — ostracized and cast out into the cold as filth, people with potential disease and/or ignorance so acute they deserve to starve to death along with their children.
It’s as if they’re trying their best to collapse this all at once — providing even greater reason to be very long BTC and ETH because fiat currencies are complete shit and one day soon they might all collapse.
Meanwhile, morons are trading pictures on Openseas and embarking on great trades — making 1000x their money in little more than a fortnight. I will tell you this now, at no point along this bumpy market road have I seen more reasons to collapse this market. We do not have the fundamental maladies and leverage of 2008 — but we have everything else.
‘Tis is not the season to bet against stocks and these things are easily forecasted in advance — by watching the bond markets. We have a most interesting scene in the US treasury market now — which in fact if it worsens can lead to a very very crashy equity tape. Presently, keep your eyes peeled to both oil and the 10yr bonds and know the inflation squeeze is on in full force and this will require you to stay focused and not veer off back into penny stock tech bullshit catamite stocks, but instead remain fixed on chemicals, steel, coking coal, ag chemicals, oil and gas and down the line of drilling and equipment services. You will want to remain long the names with HIGH MARGINS you fucking idiots and avoid the one’s with margins less than 50%.
I can comfortably say my cold streak is over. Early this week I got tossed into the blender and sank another 4% on top of the 10% shed in September. I was at my low point and I stared into the black abyss with my black heart and I won. I reversed and went higher — because I stopped chasing momentum. I will no longer chase pennies like a dog after bone and instead opt for more macro strategic plays, until I make back what I lost.
I made +110bps today via a blend of shorts and longs, leaning towards an inflation narrative and short bonds. I am fully invested, but also hedged, and the tape was ugly as a bitch into the final hour. We can expect fireworks next week and we’re not looking forward to it because the market hasn’t been forgiving.
We have a holiday on Monday, HAPPY Columbus Day — a great man indeud who is wantonly hated inside House Fly. Since I’ve never met the chap and prefer not to mold my opinions from scandal — I can only assume he was a great man because of all the fine statues of him around the world. Just like in 300 years people will reflect upon George Floyd and view him as something of a civil rights hero, I too have the opinion of Christopher Columbus that he was a great navigator.
The fact the Indians got REKT and lost their lands is wholly due to their field commanders being fucking morons.