iBankCoin
18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,417 Blog Posts

PERMANENT BULLS REJOICE

Let me just say, you all deserve harrowing losses for what you did this week. The nerve of you bidding this market up like this made me sick to my stomach.

HOW DID I WADE THROUGH IT?

With grace — because I am a professional.

THESE ARE MY FUCKING RETURNS.

That’s right, the automated Quant was up 13 fucking percent for the week and my trading gains are +42%. I closed the session 11% cash, and 25% hedged into what I hope will be CATACLYSM on Tuesday. None of the bad news is factored in and I know this sounds or reads rather like Chicken Little nonsense — but the skies are truly blackening and the future is going to be terrible.

ON A BRIGHTER NOTE:

I will of course treat myself to watch the new Top Gun movie, but fully expect to see Maverick team up with a morbidly obese tranny — who splatters jelly donuts all over the COCKpit, leading to a Russian S-400 battery to shoot down and kill Maverick, which would be good — seeing that he is a straight white male, most likely a Trumper. Not sure what to expect from such a movie, but as sure as I am sitting here — IT WILL BE RETARD TIER just like the new Batman — where that loser prances around in nightclubs for 3 hrs doing cuckhold shit. The new Top Gun will probably feature Maverick spending more time in CRT classes than training, leading to him and his entire team getting SHOT THE FUCK DOWN on their first day in combat, or perhaps their entire aircraft carrier will be sunk whilst raising the rainbow flag for pride month.

My expectations are decidedly grim.

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ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN ON A LONG WEEKEND — IT’D BE A SHAME IF THE MARKET SOLD OFF

SIRS —

I AM FLAT FOR THE SESSION, a great accomplishment considering I am bedraggled by SQQQ as a 25% holding of mine. I should’ve sold when we had that one red candle this morning but I didn’t so now I sit and wait for the late day sellooooors to appear, those who are scared to hold over the long cold and dark weekend.

Let me remind you, MONKEYPOX is on the loose, with Spain finding another 14 ill from the disgusting disease.

LOOK AT THOSE FUCKING POX STOCKS GO.

Aside from that, I am 25% cash, 100% balls and cock just trying to chisel out a path towards green today. Although markets look good right now and the bears are caught off guard with this up week, I’d like to remind all of those reading that Russia is winning the war in Ukraine, the US is in recession, the housing market is going to blow the fuck up soon, inflation is a permanent fixture now that we sanctioned ourselves to death, America is a mentally deranged nation of drug addicts and users, and we have OFF ON MONDAY — which is probably the scariest thing of all.

Try not to get monkeypox over the weekend lads.

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US INFLATION DATA COMES IN AS EXPECTED, MARKETS ON PACE FOR FIRST WEEKLY GAIN SINCE MARCH

The PCE came in hot as fuck at 6.3%, but as expected so futures took off. The NASDAQ is looking to gain around 140 at the open, which would mean the overall market is on pace for its first weekly gain since March.

On the issue of inflation, Jim Biden is set to forgive $10,000 in student loans, so don’t give up on the $100 tomato idea just yet.

Imagine the hubris should we extend said gains into yet another week? It’s not our job to fight trends, but to obey them and on occasion predict the future. If inflation data didn’t scare the market down and all of the bad earnings didn’t scare the market down, it’s possible the bad news is baked in and markets want higher.

That being said, be on the lookout for new shoes to drop, new bad news to worry about. I have nothing to offer you now, but the way bear markets work — there’s always something to get in the way of a nice rally.

NOTE: I’m not a believoor and do not ascribe to the notion we have bottomed.

 

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FULLY HEDGED INTO FUCK YOU FRIDAY

Fridays have been woefully dreadful for the market, especially ahead of a long weekend with Monday off.

I closed +1.74% and at the close, since I didn’t want to sell any of my 10% positions, I threw down a 25% position in SQQQ — which should cover me should markets decide to cascade lower tonight and into tomorrow.

I have no desire to be greedy and I am grateful for being able to navigate the market with grace and poise, now +41% for the year, +12.2% for May. I was always going to make money in a bear tape and there was never a matter of if but if when, for those who’ve been following me from the beginning. To all of those who quit Stocklabs in favor of cartoons, find solace in knowing your subpar thinking has landed you in an inexorable subpar existence of having gone down the wayward path of Morton’s Fork — because you never had a choice in the matter — biologically predispositioned to make poor choices — sad and fat.

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CRYPTOS WILL RALLY NEXT

We will not get markets running hot and cryptos being dismantled at the same time. Today ETH bottomed out at 1720 and quickly moved higher — now encroaching on 1900. My position in ETH has been dwindling down since the beginning of the year, having accumulated more than 200 sub $300 — I chose to sell in 1/12th lots until nothing was left by 2023. Admittedly, I wished I had sold it all — but this is the game plan I have and will stick to it. I am tempted, however, to freeze sales should ETH get around $1400, which I believe will be met with substantial support.

We have the markets running hot today and although I am reticent to be bullish now, into Friday, I am going with the flow — now +1.75% for the session.

If we do run higher again tomorrow, you should expect a continuation of this bottoming action in cryptos. I am playing this via miner MARA.

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BELIEVOORS OTM: DO NOT FALL FOR THE USUAL TRICKS

Greetings,

I am +165bps for the session, not because I am bullish and like stocks, but because I am a consummate professional. My gains now crest above 40% for the year and I have been sitting at all time RECOURD highs for weeks now. I tell you these things, not to boast or to make you feel bad about your present situation, but instead to serve as a pretext for the following things I am about to say.

This rally is being spearheaded by retail, believe it or not. The assumption markets are making now is — MEH things aren’t that bad, might as well stick my cock in this here. Bear in mind, most traders are flatly doing this without protection or even thinking about the negative ramifications.

This is what we do know.

Earnings have been an abomination and Russia is winning the war in Ukraine. We are only hoping for the best here, pinning everything on the notion that inflation will taper and the Fed will swoop in to save the day.

MEANWHILE, WTI is +3.6% and natural gas encroaches on $10.

We aren’t going to paper ourselves out of this mess, not this time.

I AM NOT SUGGESTING you go out there and short now. But what I am telling you is to not be fooled and believe this is the bottom and all will be well — because it’s not going to be all well and good and we haven’t even begun to see unemployment rise.

Therefore, I remain long, but reserve the right to hedge at any moment. I do believe accounts should be hedged on just about every single session near the close and those hedges closed out before 9:40am the next day. Again, we are not naive or stupid and do not fall for the same parlour tricks that have worked before — because this time IS sort of different and the downside to the markets are in line with the expected earnings guide downs — which I estimate to be in the magnitude of 25-35%.

For now, however, we have a respite.

Enjoy.

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REVENGE OF THE NERDS

The Ruble is down 10% today. The US seized an Iranian oil tanker. AVGO is buying BRCM. NVDA is green after collapsing 10% last night. All of the leadership tech stocks and also the trash ones are up. Even the meme stocks are going again.

Q1 GDP was revised down 1.5% from 1.4%, yet no one gives a fuck.

See what’s happening? The nerds are attempting revenge and you can find said nerds in the most heavily shorted stocks.

I allocated into heavily shorted stocks, reserving 40% cash for eventualities. It would seem, at least early on, markets want higher.

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Classic Reversal: BE CAREFUL SHORTING HERE

To be honest, I had a few drinks last night and am out of the loop this morning. I sold everything and am 100% cash in my trading, having booked small losses and surprisingly one of them was in SOXS. I was certain NVDA would stay down, but it looks like a classic red to green reversal. I’d be very uneasy staying short after a bellwether like that started to go up in the face of bad news.

I’ll get my house in order here and try to give a better assessment later on. My initial instinct is to first cash up and avoid shorting.

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TAKING THE REST OF THE DAY OFF FOR BIRTHDAY FESTIVITIES

Greetings

Just 1.5 years left on this site before I impose a self ban. The markets are behaving well without drama, so I doubled up on my current positions, added a SOXS hedge, and will call it a day. I might double up or down on SOXS depending on my mood.

Commodity markets, FOREX markets, stock markets can all fuck off for a day, as I have no desire whatsoever to trade on this fine day.

My current positions, a birthday present from me to you.

Cheers!

UPDATE: FLY BOOKS NOW COMBINED INTO ONE HARDCOVER BOOK WITH NEW EPILOGUE

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NATURAL GAS AT HIGHEST LEVELS SINCE 2008

We have a 9 handle on natty now and we’re only getting started. These prices are BEFORE a Russian embargo. Once the EU is ordered by the US to stop buying Russian gas — then you’ll see the real spike and you will also see how it decimates your natural gas utility bill the coming winter, as America converts all of its gas into LNG to export to Europe for big fat profits.

The continent of Europe, more or less, is a useless sack of shit that cannot sustain itself on energy, food, or defense. They instead depend on others to do it for them.

I happen to be long several natty plays this morning, but will be selling all of my stocks at the open, since today is my birthday and all.

Here are the top rated natty stocks in Stocklabs.

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