18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
21,895 Blog Posts

If We Don’t Bottom, WE COLLAPSE

After the close, MDB reported solid numbers, which is a net positive for SAAS stocks and might help offer us another leg up tomorrow. Although the rally was solid today, we are not out from the woods and I’d be remiss to not warn you that failure to bust loose from here now all but guarantees a death sentence for stocks, for the balance of 2021.

Should we gap lower tomorrow, it’s over.

But again, don’t expect fireworks in December. It just simply isn’t a month with large movements.

We’re up 0.3% on the IWM and there is very little reason for us to rally more than 3% for the entire month. Is anything spectacular? Is there a catalyst?

In the end, we all get what we deserve. I happen to deserve more, which is why I am smartly positioned without too much exposure. I closed 40% cash and 15% TZA against my longs, losing 0.4% for the session thanks to the zeroing out of my BITO calls.

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We Might’ve Bottomed

The Stocklabs mean reversion algorithms told you to get involved with that. Were you man enough to listen?

What you need to figure out now is — is today a one off bounce, up more than 700 on 75% breadth, or the beginning of the Santa Claus rally? I have some very definitive ideas — but fuck off I’m not sharing them now.

Life is about taking gambles and placing one’s nuts on the kitchen table while speed chopping carrots. I do believe there is an opportunity here. I am only being vague because I felt like being an asshole.

The market has traded sideway for the past several hours and there are areas of the market not enjoying today’s melt up. But we do have oil up, rates up, and many of of the “back to normal” areas of the market leading — based on the assumption that Omicron is shit. Over in NYC, 5 years olds can’t enter a restaurant without a vaccine pass! How wonderful for the city.

More later.

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Panic Buying Soon

I sold out of my TNA-GUSH positions pre market for 3-4% gains and now sit in all cash. Reason being, the market is GUILTY until proven otherwise. Every day the market opens up and collapses. Will this happen today?

Most likely.

However, we are very overdue an extreme bounce and when it happens you’re all gonna be panicking to get in. The question is, do you sit patient and wait and perhaps subject yourselves to downside torture, or maybe try your chances at market timing?

I have no interest in waiting around so I’ll be market timing, fucked faces.

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This past May when I was cavorting the fine gentlemanly town of Charleston — DOGE broke the fuck out and with it fortunes were made by complete idiots. I recall day trading on my Robinhood app, shit coins, for thousands of dollars in profits with ease. Now with the benefit of hindsight, that was the interim top. ETH fell from the $4,000s down to the low $2000s, maybe even lower (fuck off), and all was lost.

Then Gary Vaynerchuk bought a retarded ape for $3m and the NFT market took off, dragging with it ETH, BTC and a wide array of SHITCOINS. The recent run to record highs was fueled by, dare I say, wanton speculation in the digital art space — an area of the market I was both angry with and ignorant of and I am sure that it will perform well on a long enough time frame — because of the simple fact that I hate it. That’s the thing about age, it permits you to know your limitations and properly analyze your emotions. When confronted with something new and innovative, I am almost always angered by it — perhaps a defense mechanism of mine fearing change.

But you’re here to discuss BTC-ETH and not my emotional multitudes that causes me to lash out at strangers and verbally assault them.

My sense is the November flop caused many to lose faith in the “magical” run to BTC $100k. Without a proper catalyst, the market is now ebbing and heaving with morons awaiting execution. The FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) is on steroids because the overall market is weak and cryptos have not behaved defensive, but instead risky. I am not selling ETH — because fuck taxes. But my BITO calls are a zero and in hindsight it was a stupid gambit — as contango fucked the pricing mechanism, leaving me with losses. My bet was, inexorably, for a GAMMA run to $100k alongside magical unicorns and gay giraffes. Instead, we ride the long black train to zero and cryptos are most likely fucked until Spring.

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Over the past few hours BTC has dropped nearly 10,000 points — ushering in hell for crypto traders who thought they’d make it. Here is the PIN ACTION since midnight eastern time.

This coincided with the Asians waking up from their slumber. Almost uniformly, as soon as they drank their morning tea — they sold BTC and ETH and shit on coins like LTC. We can only blame this rout, inexorably, on the good people from the orient.

Having much of my liquid net worth tied up in ETH, I do not enjoy seeing it cascade lower. But I can’t help but to laugh, in a maniacal way of course. Ethereum will inherit the blockchain and clean up the blood and the guts left by all of the lower quality coins and traders. Those people are dead now, leveraged in Asia, and now we shall rise once again — but this time without them.

The tree of liberty is being replenished with the blood of the weak and mentally handicapped. I will not buy dips because I am not a monkey. I do not throw glasses of water into a large reservoir and expect a tangible opportunity to result from such actions. Instead, I sit and I watch — sticking to my plan of liquidating all of my ETH in 2022.

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The Fly is Impervious to Market Drawdowns

While you lost half your accounts this week, the evermore industrious and carefully plotting Fly made coin.

The purpose of this post is to boast, a celebration of my greatness. I am not here, nor have I ever been, to teach you anything. This is not a blog where you learn, but instead humble oneself at the feet of magnificence.

Ever since I was a small boy running around in the oil fields of Brooklyn, I dreamt of calamitous market turns lower. I recall when the market crashed in 1987, when I was just 11, being pleased by it. I was reading the newspaper and was delighted in the losses inflicted upon errant traders. It’s very simply, actually. If you lose money during a crash — you deserved it.

While some of us saw the little subtleties of decline before they happened, most did not. This is what makes a market and separates the great traders from the chaff. You being chaff should strive to be more like me — fastidious and hard working. Do not drink booze and visit the gym to lift weights 5 times per week and limit your consumption of carbs and fun. Life isn’t fun — but instead a never-ending toil by which we measure ourselves against others in an attempt to leave the world slightly better than before we had been born.

If you’re curious about what I think the market does next — FUCK OFF. I am not interested in sharing my innermost details of market timing. I will say, however, that the credit markets are stable and those seeking refuge inside SHITCOINS have been dispatched. We are not yet circling the wagons around our own grave, but instead flirting with the idea of getting in a very fast calash and driving it over the cliff unto the hard rocks below.

I was up 30bps for the session, +0.85% for the week — all trades furnished in RT inside Stocklabs.

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Markets are careening lower and the speed at which it’s happening is too alluring, which means no good. At the open, as I always do, I sold everything, including my TZA hedge and now sit in cash, +36bps for the session.

Any moderate momo oriented portfolio is down 3% now and getting worse by the minute.

However, the fastidious nature of this drop leads me to believe a counter rally is going to happen soon. But I’m not brave enough to play it. No not me. I prefer sure things and the comforts of cash, watching Rome burn.

I’ll play later on after the rally.

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Why Lie? December is Not a Great Month for Stocks

A commonly parroted narrative by the vaccinated people on the teevee is to suggest December, for all intents and purpose, is this pomp month replete with gifts from Satanic Santa — a boon of sort for investors. But is this true, or the machinations of weak people with weak minds projecting their holiday depravity unto you?

Here are the facts.

Data via Stocklabs

So the reality is December is one of three months in the year that trades down more often than up, going back to 1999. Do you see what I see?

OMICRON FEARS are palpable and the news is ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE. The misconception of vaccinating ourselves into the bosom of safety is more than ridiculous at this point — but absurd. The tedious data points of highly vaccinated places like Portugal or Denmark enjoying COVID breakouts suggests one of two things.

1. The vaccine is failing and causing ADE. The vaccinated are causing the variants and are like walking biological time bombs. Last I checked, viruses evolve after meeting resistance from something trying to fuck it. Us pure bloods aren’t trying to fuck anything.

2. The vaccine is ineffective.

The net result is having to deal with the weak and the FATS die off in large numbers. Having said that, should I succumb to COVID OMICRON and die off like the rest of you, it won’t be because I didn’t choose to vaccinate, but because I got sick and died you stupid piece of shits. If people who got triple vaxxed are dying off like morons, why the fuck can’t I being zero vaxxed?

At any rate, I went long a bunch of shit, all discussed in Stocklabs, and hedged it with a 15% position in TZA — 20% cash.

I was up 35bps for the session — flat for December.

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Waiting to Buy

Decent bounce day but I’m not trading it. I sold my TNA at 4am and haven’t looked at the market since 9:30. Well, that’s not entirely true since I just looked at the market now and saw small caps struggling, but not too bad. All of the right sectors are rallying and this could be the bottom, or the end of the faux panic.

Come on people. You know how this ends. We are pretending there are free markets and make believing they game isn’t rigged. Yes stocks will go higher. Yes the Fed will do everything in their power to support stock prices. And yes there will be periods of stress and none of the Fed support applies to your piece of shit Penny stocks.

Into the afternoon hours I’ll likely start buying. I’m u 36bps and the quant is up 1%. This isn’t something to write about in an online bloggery. To truly bottom, we need something spectacular to the upside.

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Markets reversed a +500 and turned that smile upside down, in a panicked for the exit close. Everything that could go wrong did. The Fed said they’re very interested in tapering and Fauci opened his big fat mouth about Omicron- discussing the first such case in the US. All of this, and much more, has led us to where I told you we would be by Xmas — which is on the verge, if not inside of, a lockdown. The peoples of the vaccinated part of society welcomed with warm embraces state led dictatorship all in the name of health. We are ever so scared to die — because in the end — everyone is an atheist. Deep down at least, no one really believes in heaven, otherwise they’d welcome death as a comfort and not an anathema.

On the issue of uncertainty, we have markets barreling lower and your urge is to retreat, when in fact you should be charging forward.

Fixed bayonets, leaning into this decline, is how I will play it.

I had escaped today’s horrors up until late afternoon when I fancied myself too smart and bought ADGI and it quickly sank 7% on me. I had also positioned into old man stocks — thinking they’d rally into the close as investors sought out safe havens. I was wrong. I had a 15% position in DRIP and ended selling it 3 mins to the bell for profit and then I switched around, the lunatic that I am, and dove into TNA (TITS N ASS) into what is sure to be a tumultuous overnight session. It is a 10% position and all I have, aside from my BITO call position.

I ended down 0.48%.

Into panic, I will add to the TNA position and I find myself most comforted by the idea of a leveraged upside ETF in the midst of unrivaled panic. The mood has been dour all year and the President and his polices dreadful. We are here now because of the actions of people and the confidence that has been built upon the sandy foundations of the Federal Reserve is starting to give way. Nonetheless, it is my experience, at least in recent times, nothing ever happens and the disasters we almost all look forward to is avoided.

I am brave because I am enriched with a history of success and this success has been yours for free since 2007. Congrats to you.

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