THIS IS IT: THE MARKET MUST BOUNCE HERE

Just quick afternoon update for you fucks who are permanently long.

I’ve been doing this a very long time and I even built mean reversion algorithms to time markets. I remind you of this to separate the chaff from the wheat. We are not the same. Having said that, I mentioned a week ago that Stocklabs had flagged oversold — but if we started to “cluster signals” it could be the preceding elements of the apocalypse.

The character of this market has been to sell down all rallies and this doesn’t conform with a bullish tone or tenor. I will tell you this now — if markets do not bounce after today — it’s 100% over. I am hoping we do bounce a little, in order to assuage longs back into the building so we can burn it down later. But if we collapsed now — I would not offer protest.

At the heart of this tumult are treasury yields. We are +9bps to 4.33% and markets are screaming HELP to an obstinate Fed. We have not gone down yet. The fact that stocks have held it together up until now is admirable and shorting a market that defies logic is usually a reason to be long.

The divergence between small and large cap is a wide chasm today, +0.6% v DOWN 0.7%. My best guess is for stabilization and an attempted rally in the late afternoon or tomorrow. HOWEVER, I am open to suggestions and should we flop and flail and flounder, you will rue the day you chanced upon this eloquent prose and decided to ignore my most dire warnings.

You have been warned.

Here is a day hand-spun directly from the devil himself unto my trading screen. Mega caps are up, but smalls are down. Oils were up, but now sinking. The US 10YR is defying every notion of normalcy and is now SOARING +10bps to well over 4.3%. We have the NASDAQ +76 with overall breadth in the 40% range and my person DOWN 1.45% for the session.

I won’t beat myself up too much about it since this is something crafted by celestial beings meant to be malevolent. I will say that the US 10yr and rates in general are pretending as if Biden had not already defeated inflation. Dare I say the FOMC has another 100bps in them before they can subside these pressures?

To make matters worse, the Dow Jones is -175. That might be a meaningless piece of information to the uneducated reader class of investor — but it’s important too. It means industrial powered stocks, aka risk averse old man stocks, are getting hit too. In other words, if you’re not long TSLA, NVDA or FANG stocks today you’re getting drilled — which is terribly demoralizing. You might feeeeeeel as if the world is ending and everything you do is wrong and that it’ll never get better. This is also not true. The sun will rise again and the blue birds will chirp and sing and drift atop the meadows shitting on the snails below. There will be better markets where you and I can laugh heartily with mouths filled with food — good food and not that shit you buy at the gas station. We will eat steaks and drink wine and order our wives to “fetch us some ale” and be happy — because stocks had gone up and we increased the digital value of our online accounts that we’re building for the “long term” to do something grand with. Maybe we can buy a beach house, or maybe a ranch. That’s right, we can become ranchers — just like Rip from Yellowstone and slap people around and take them on train rides and dump them off when they get out of line.

The good life is ahead lads. Do not give up on these ideas.

Yes, it really is over. I should just end the blog here. But since I feel like writing, I’ll jog on.

First stats:

MTD losses

QQQ -6.66%
IWM -7.1%

YTD gains
QQQ +34.5%
IWM +5.8%

If you just ignore the robber baron’d Nasdaq and looked at the overall pastiche of the market — according to Stocklabs “all stocks” are up 0.05% this year. Areas of the market stuck in a bear market include the following:

Auto parts -28%
Drug Stores -28%
Solar -27%
EV Charging -27%
Cannabis -22%
Banks -20%

Fortunately, the stocks that have risen are mostly larger capped and/or high volume trading stocks that trend on socials, which has helped investors pick better in 2023. If I had to guess, I’d bet people are doing well in 2023 in spite of the overall gloomy outlook.

For the month, however, we are seeing a much different tone to the tape — as all stocks are getting lit up again.

Month to date, the only real large cap stocks doing well are LLY +20%, VRT +30%, TPL +26%, $X +22% and a sundry of bric or brac. The fact of the matter is, and this is not broadcasted on the tele for your viewing, NATO is losing the war in Ukraine. This has been my assertion all year, in regards to the positive or negative direction of markets.

When NATO appeared to be giving Russia problems, stocks rose. Now with the Ukrainian offensive bogged down and mired in massive losses — the neocons are elevating the conflict and bringing us another step closer to direct conflict with Russia.

The neoliberal/con idea from day 1 has been to neutralize Ukraine in the least expensive place in Europe, in order to prevent them from attacking all the way to Paris. These people have Hitler on their brains 24/7 and keep Saving Private Ryan on loop in their disgusting homes. Taking out a mostly white and orthodox Christian nation is of course on their bucket list. To do it inside another white orthodox nation is like hitting the lottery for them.

Alas here we are again, with the worst people to ever walk on American soil pressuring the geriatric to commit more US resources into Ukraine for the express purposes of “Stopping Putin.” I’m afraid because of our actions the past year plus, we might very well be past an amicable negotiated settlement and have created an eternal enemy who now just wants to see the NATO/American hegemony end aka Pax Americana.

With this ending, you can rest assured stocks will not like it one bit. A loss in Ukraine now, after going all in against what the world views as close to a peer power, is a humiliation. The people who operate our shitholes are accustomed to inflicting humiliation rituals onto others, not receiving them.

I hope you can appreciate the perceived danger here, with flawed and weak men/women leading us out of spite and malice instead of grace.

What a wonderful showing for the bulls — down just 26 NASDAQS, flat in $SPY and gains in the $IWM. At the open it really did look like centaurs were about to bust loose on Wall, ushering in the 4 horsemen of the apocalypse. But it all worked out for the transgendered longs.

I closed down 70bps, heavily leaning short via $FNGD. I traded best I could from my phone whilst moving my son into college. I have been checked out all week and lost about 1%, extending my losing streak to 3 weeks.

I have to be honest. I’m glad to see myself finally losing some coin after all of the wins. It’s good to know what the other side feels like. I also know many people follow me and as such have been clobbered down too. Frankly, you’ll need to bear through it — but I do hope you give up and cancel Stocklabs anyways. Many of you are needy bitches with retarded brains and stupid faces. At the first sign of discord, you panic and collapse, as is customary with all losers.

Eventually, “The Fly” will reign supreme, towering at recourd highs pissing from atop a mountain down into the servants homes below. This process you are witnessing, me losing and all, is the human process and an important reminder that even the very best can fail.

ATTENTION BULLS

This is where you make a stand. Bond yields are lower nearly 5bps, oil is up and small caps are unch. You do not need to be afraid. Look at me: Joe Biden has this in the bag, Jack. Get out there now with the money you have and defend all of those great American companies, like $DIS and $PFE.

Are you gonna allow those conservative traitors who are “rooting for Russia” ruin your LGBTQ plus friendly environ?

I know the Fed no longer has your back and are instead toiling away in an effort to destroy you. But don’t let that stop you from “American exceptionalism.” You’ve seen all of the movies that demonstrated how much better America is and now she needs you. Defend her honor and glory and put on that fucking mask now and buy some stocks!

Call all of your tranny friends and do the same and let’s send those racists Nazis back into their bear dens to fall back asleep.

I just got back from Williamsburg, VA — a wonderful small town next door to the waterpark that I was tortured in. The hot and oppressive heat beaming down on me whilst waiting on a long line climbing up many stairs with TWO busted ACLs is what a man, such as myself, might consider to be hell. I bore through it and never complained — because only pussies complain and I will have you know — I bore through it.

While away these past two days, I made money in the market — about 27bps total. I am mostly cash and 10% short $TZA. I see @ElonMusk sold his fucking $BTC for Space X after close — crushing the souls of shitcoiners everywhere. Listen to me, this is a buying opportunity. Musk selling $373m in $BTC means less than nothing — definitely not a reason to sell.

But I am not here to talk about that. I am here to discuss the specter of stocks lampooning into the fucking floorboards tomorrow en route to a full fledged cataclysm on Monday. I will, once again, be out of pocket tomorrow afternoon — as I am driving my son to college. I do not expect much tomorrow — but it can happen. All we need is for bonds to tank again and next thing you know we’re getting margin calls.

That’s right Charlie — there is significant damage to equites right now to the point of margin calls becoming a problem. How much leverage is in the system now? How about $700 billion pal?

BOTTOM LINE: Best case scenario markets tumble again tomorrow, mainly affecting FANG stocks. Thus far, the tera cap Robber Barons have all but escaped the horrors of August. We want that to change and fast. If we can get the big stocks down 7-10% in a day — then we can preside over a wholesale liquidation of the stock exchange, whereby these little 2% movers you’re so angered by would be like having an up day in comparison to what you’re going to see — 20-40% daily drops until it’s dead. You forgot the pain of downward liquidations and how it felt inside the hot fires, burning furiously out of malice. You’ve been tricked into comfort, became gay, and now God himself is going to strike you down threadbare and blow you the fuck out clean.

Before I delve into my unimportant life, I’d like to convey the fact that our mean reversion oversold signal was activated today, which is a rare event. It wasn’t oour 12mo dated algorithm, which is now super rare, but the 3mo. The way these mean reversion signals work is as follows.

Stocklabs grades all stocks by fundamentals and technicals, producing an aggregate score. This score is then transposed against price action for the $SPY over a 10 day holding period and from that we get data. The details of producing the scores are way above your pay grade, including treasuries, currencies, stocks, and commodities. Explaining them to you in a blog would be on par with teaching trigonometry to a gorilla. Just know, I’ve made fortunes by trading off these signals since 2008.

I will admit, there are occasions when the oversold flops and during those times there are seminal moments or pivots in the markets that distinguish them. The hallmarks of them are when we get “clusters” of OS signals over consecutive days. Since this is day 1 of the signal, it’s too early to know if “this time is different.” We can easily acknowledge the spike in rates and how that is causing people to panic.

Here is the data for the oversold signal.

The last OS was on 6/23/23

The backtest data is flawless over 10 trading days, poor over 1. Backtest period is 1 yr.

Aside from important things like western finance, House Fly visited the entirely trivial JAMESTOWNE today, which is basically a scam recreated in 1994 to fool tourists into believing something old exists there. I hobbled along at a slow pace and enjoyed whatever sites I could. When I was younger, in my 20s,  I’d get very excited over visiting places, really geeked out over the smallest things. I was truly alive and with verve, my entire life ahead of me. Now these days, I’m entirely black pilled, have a month old beard, and generally don’t give a fuck about any of it. These things happen of course — life wears you down and then breaks you into pieces and then, somehow, you drop dead.

Sorry to get all morbid, especially for the 20 something year old punks reading this. I really do wish you well and hope you can enjoy life the way I once did, stupidly cavorting throughout the planet in search of sport and truth.

I’m about to get the hell out of here and sojourn up to Richmond, at which point I’ll delimber and prepare for a battle, tomorrow, at Battlefield Waterpark. Perhaps I’ll visit Jamestown or Williamsburg and pretend. It’s always fun doing that.

The market isn’t particularly interesting anyway, offering non explosive moves, plodding lower lazily. Early going we have a small rally — but I won’t be fooled into it. I have 5% TZA, 7% BTC positions and the rest cash, about flat for the morning. I don’t feeeeeel like I’ll miss much and really do like cavorting around Richmond. If you see a man limping due to an ACL tear, just know that I don’t want to talk to you and may or may not be fully armed. I will not, however, be taking my weapon to the waterpark, as I intend to float lazily in the lazy river without fear of being attacked.

While I’m away, remember the market is trying to trick you. Try to avoid being fooled.

The IWM is down 5% for August and the bears are really feeling themselves now, asserting their opinions in an oppressive way unto the poor bulls. You see the blood streaming almost everywhere and you can sense this is a moment that will either demoralize the bears for the balance of 2023 or perhaps turn the tide against the bulls and bury them where they stand.

Markets pulled back 1-1.2% today. This is a garden varietal pullback — but one which has been persistent for all of August. I managed to limit my losses to 45bps, suffering greater losses in longer term accounts. I closed hedged and in larger capped stocks — afraid to take on too much risk because of the 9%+ hole I dug for myself in the month.

Tomorrow I depart for Richmond and then the following day towards BUSCH FUCKING GARDENS to not enjoy my time and to not like any of the rides there. I view rides as a god damned stupid waste of time; but do not tell Mrs. Fly that because she loves them and thinks they’re ‘super awesome and amazing.’

BOTTOM LINE: Fear tactics aside, this market is being directed entirely by the treasury yields. Should they come in tomorrow — then stocks will rally and vice versa. There is a palpable fear that inflation is going to be renewed and that money will become even tighter — laying waste to anyone without millions in cash ready to spend.

We often trade in stocks we’d never want to own long term — because “one more trade” or “just a little bit more.” And then they blow the fuck out and we get caught inside of them — on par with being in a piece of shit car just before it combusts.

Whilst the bellwethers of this market remain intact, we are seeing SEVERE drawdowns amidst plenty of trader favorites — mostly due to terrible earnings.

Here are some 2 week returns that are designed to scare you.

HE (MAUI RELATED) -57%, NVEI -53%, UPST -51%, QS -47%, TGTX- 45%, SE -37%, SAGE -39%, LMND -38%, DOCS -36%, SYM -35%, OPEN -32%, PLUG -31%, IEP -31%, SDGR -30%.

And for some larger capped catastrophes.

PYPL -21%, FTNT -24%, SQ -27%, PLTR -22%, DDOG -24%, NIO -23%, RIVN -24%, RBLX -24%, PAYC -21%, U -22%.

Bro, it’s fucking over. Can’t you see the writing all over the wall — the blood of the bull painted on it? You cannot withstand this sort of barrage without ramifications coming due. I will tell you this now — people hate this market. They view it as artificial and want it to die. I will also tell you that the fundamentals of the economy are extremely tenuous and any substantial pullback in equities will in fact ruin the recovery.

There is a great price to pay for the sins of a nation of grabblers, mountebanks, and grifters. Whether it happens now or later, one thing is for certain — a reckoning is coming.