18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
20,622 Blog Posts

Market Might Fade Into European Close

Europe was up 8%, now only 3%. There is a little less than an hour left to trade there and I suspect markets will fade. We are seeing MASSIVE selling in areas of the economy most affected by the economic collapse caused by coronavirus. Cruise ships, casual dining, entertainment cannot catch a bid. I do think, however, casual dining is a solid long term buy down here. Stocks like DIN and CMG off their highs like this is just madness.

I had SOXL overnight and sold it for an 11.7% profit. I am 80% cash and only long tankers now, who are enjoying $300k day rates for shipping crude. In the space, I own DHT, FRO, and EURN.

I am concerned about the fade in oil and the way treasuries are trading — whip sawing around too much. I do not trust Congress to pass a fiscal stimulus bill this weekend and will not be holding anything risky over the weekend.

Empirically, VIX above $70 is a SHORT. However, the fact that it won’t go down suggest people are still buying puts. Also, we are seeing sharp declines in short dated treasury yields, a typical safe haven for money managers.

I like the market to fade here until 12pm, ramp until 3pm and then taper off again. We might resume the plunge on Monday.


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This could be the biggest news out of Germany since 2008.

The result is massive widening of 2s and 10s in Germany (bullish), the most since 2008. Italian markets are up a staggering 14.4% and Europe as a whole higher by more than 7%. We are LIMIT UP (5%) here in America and our bonds yields are BLOWING OUT, with the 10yr up an amazing 12bps to 0.97%. I do not view that very constructively. But nevertheless, I’ll take the rally.

Bitcoin got ass-raped last night down to $4,000, now trading at $5400.

I know what you’re thinking. Should I buy now? Will this continue?

HARD TO SAY. But I am comfy taking trades at any time, in either direction. Heading into today, I am heavily long tankers and some SOXL, no shorts. I think we have room to move. I am a little apprehensive over the weekend because Congress is supposed to approve a stimulus programme. Do you trust them? Do you hate them enough to sell short into the close today?

We’ll find out now, won’t we?

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FTSE MID is higher by 10%. US futures are pointing towards a grandiose open of 4%. Oil is higher by 5%.

The mustard seeds are already taking root and a great bit beautifully titted market is about to take hold. Yes, it’s trie, I purchased SOXL yesterday. Yes, it’s true, SOXL was down 13 from my basis in after hours trade, but now it’s +13 and my boldness has resulted in yet another victory in the great bear market raid of 2020.

Can I teach you how to trade?


You can never learn to trade. I am merely a purveyor of fish. I can feed you said fish and that is all.

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The perfect scheme was concocted to annihilate the global economic order and upend it vis a vis bat soup. But we all know this virus was made in a lab, right? This weaponized version of SARS is wreaking havoc on the minds of people, ginned up and spun out of control. It’s out of the box, and central banks have no powder left in the keg, and OPEC concluded it’s better to crash oil now than later. This has all of the trimmings and the hallmarks of a hard reset.

Asian markets are off by 10%, absolute carnage out there.

Dow futures are down more than 650 and it’s starting to look like we’ll be LIMIT DOWN by the open. How does this get resolved? Well, it starts with everyone raising cash by selling treasuries, which is why the Fed stepped in today with $500b. Funny thing, yields still spiked. How much cash is parked in treasuries, globally? They’re all running for the exits because liquidity is nil. This is now a credit crisis, massive blow out in spreads. Mortgage yields are HIGHER because of the stress. California munis down 13% today. Fucking unreal stuff, which is why they need to SHUT IT DOWN.

To be honest, a bank holiday and exchange holiday might be exactly what the Doctor ordered. Set up a massive government LTRO and lend money to everyone — FREE CASH FOR ALL. Moral hazard? Well, that or you’ll be talking about how airplanes used to fly in the sky when that company Boeing used to exist. A Mad Max environ will descend upon you — electricity being turned the fuck off — cars no longer being made or sold — barely driven. Technology will be forgotten and man will once again hunt for his food.

You’ll walk thru Disney with your band of cannibals and cast your eyes upon the Magical Kingdom festooned with weeds and overgrown shrubs and tell your little cannibal children that “once upon a time — people used to have fun here.”

They’ll answer back “what’s fun Pa?”

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Markets closed at session lows, down more than 2,300 points. Everything was massacred, aside from the tanker stocks I was hiding in. See pal, that’s what I’m all about — hiding inside oil tankers (VLCCs) whilst the world burns. Why hide inside said tankers?


There are two types of people in this world, those who hide inside oil tankers and those who don’t. While all of this nonsense is occurring inside of the oil space, House of Saud is securing all of the VLCCs money can buy. The day rates for such vessels now fetch for $265k per day, up from $18k on Friday.

I own DHT and FRO, which paid out a 40 cent dividend today and was up. My other trades were an overnighter on FAZ +34% and then another 7.5% later on for good measure. All in all, 75-80% cash at all times during this debacle, an extreme gentleman of utmost candor and ferocity. You cannot supplant me, and never overtake me. Le Fly is everlasting and supreme.

Do you want to see what the carnage was like on this day (I am now speaking to readers of a future generation)? Here goes.

It’s over. Massive bailouts are needed to fend off the burn. The burn will either be absorbed by government or markets will close. Because of the severity of this situation, as evidenced by today’s bloodshed, I went long a little into the bell.

All trades and real time thoughts will be shared, as always, inside of the hallowed halls of Exodus.

BTW: My chief concern now is functionality of the treasury markets. Yields should be sinking, not rising, which means there is something going very wrong in treasuries. My guess, companies with cash and treasuries are in need to liquidity and are actively selling, WORLDWIDE. Treasuries have been a place of safety for decades. Well, we have a global crisis now, so that’s why the Fed is stepping in with QE to absorb the blows they knew were coming.

The most humorous part of today’s massacre was seeing JNUG off by 64%. Gold bugs really thought they were going to make it.

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Italy was down more than 16%, Spain nearly -15%. The Germans lost 12.2%, making it the worst single day drop ever. Here in the state we have a confluence of events transpiring that’s so severe — it could only end badly.

Let’s go thru the danger signs.

LEVERAGED LOANS via SRLN off by nearly 5%. That’s a standard deviation blowout.
Pancake House, DIN — off by 27%.
Another casual dining giant — EAT, off by 30%.
Spirits Airlines, SAVE -30%
Life insurance giant, LNC -24%
Royal Caribbean, RCL -24%
Macy’s, M -23%
Six Flags Great Adventure, SIX -17%

I can go on. The point I am making here is this. You have a giant pyramid scheme, which is normal of course. Business rely upon foot traffic and people buying stuff. People are not doing that anymore and these companies are GIANT. We don’t have small mom and pop stores anymore. These chains are enormous with wide ranging overhead and employee counts. They cannot handle the downtime, in so quick a fashion.

All of the sports leagues have been canceled. Italy is shut down. This virus scare is so pervasive, so severe, it’s only a matter of time until Disney shuts down.

The resolution cannot be made at the Fed. The government either lends EVERYONE money for free or they will go bust and markets will be forced to close until this passes. If they do not freeze and close the exchanges — EVERYTHING will go to zero.

BA is down 53% the past month.

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For young punks who don’t know, once upon a time at the beginning of the 2008 Financial crisis, Cramer went on a “they know nothing” rant — calling for Fed action.

Well, he’s at it again — this time calling for MASSIVE government bailouts and cessation of income tax.


Yes indeed.

Either something like this happens or markets will suspend trading until the dust settles, in my opinion.

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Good morning ladies and gentlemen,

No more chin-wagging or contemplating how this all works out to your benefit. Stocks are going to get fucking shipwrecked today and there is nothing policy makers can do, aside from SHUTTING IT ALL DOWN and suspending trade. Later on today the ECB will announce “liquidity measures”, but what use can they serve when business is down 80%?

Where do I get such a number?


Since everything is being shut down, my question to you is this:

How long can companies survive holding overhead and business down 50%+?


We are talking instant bankruptcies here, across the board. Significant draw downs in lines of credit, totally fucking banks to the point of ruin. The banks, if you will, are on the hook for $2.5 TRILLION in LOCs, most owned by JPM, C, WFC and BAC. It will look like a massive run on banks, all happening so fast, no one will know what hit them.

LOC’s flying out of the door, banks forced to recapitalize.

This is the gloom and doom scenario. Let’s play devil’s advocate and say they manage to instill some confidence in markets. How might that look like? Perhaps a government or Fed lending program of massive scale to take the place of the LOCs? I don’t know. But as of right now the only stocks that are working are mini plague stocks. You remember, the stocks you mocked me for last month.

HAHAHAH — go fuck yourself.

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