It’s Nice to Rally — But Don’t Get Too Comfy

We are ramping now and there is nothing the bear can do. They’re all there now, laying down and bleeding out — heads bashed in. They had a plan and it went sideways, as their plans always do. The bulls occupy all of Wall Street now, popping champagne, corks and all, into each other’s faces. Grand and elaborate celebrations — bringing back memories of great economies and even greater markets. Maybe this will turn into that too? Maybe just maybe XYZ will go to $1,000 per share making me the richest man that I know.

The truth is, unfortunately, the bears are immortal and after we kill them — they’ll just come back at us — again and again — taking bites off our weak — eating the really weak with savage appeal. This battle for supremacy will never end and at times it will seem to be over. How could it not? But then something will happen and we’ll all dance and sing again — like apes in banana trees cooling in the mist.

For now, the bulls are in charge. We have the Iranians in their box and the enemies of the GLOBOHOMO on the ropes. The LGBTQ flags are basking in the sun of every western capital and the transgendered bulls are urinating standing up in the ladies bathrooms — lipstick affixed, eye shadow and knee high stockings in tow.

I got right this morning upon seeing several things.

1. Rates were down.
2. SAAS stocks were up.
3. Commodities were down.

After I saw that, I closed my shorts and went to work buying up some longs. The day is young and anything can happen, but in my experience when SAAS stocks are strong you get a rally in the overall market.

The pressure applied to stocks is due to rates and how they stymie growth, since the cost of capital is high. Another factor is high commodity prices, which can hurt the consumer and also jack up the all important CPI. Today’s price action is exactly what the bulls want and I’d be shocked if we reversed lower.

I’m +30bps early going, recovered from early losses due to shorts.

Today was a day born in hell for the amateur trade, the young punks filled with hubris falling headlong into large vats of concrete.

Oil was 0.4%, but natural gas knifed lower by 7%.

The NASDAQ was higher by 0.3%, but the Russell 2000 was lower by 1.3%.

The VIX was slightly higher, yet the retarded UVIX instrument they give us was lower by 7%.

You must understand there are tricks being disseminated liberally and their target is you, the unwashed son of a bitch fool — who thinks he’s knows it all because he once traded his account from 10 grand to $100,000.

Well we’ve all done that old sport and there isn’t anything unique about river boat gambling and getting lucky. You can thrive when the sun is shining and the sea lanes are clear — but can you do it when storms of fire rain misery onto markets and nothing is what it seems? Can you do that son?

I have confidence some of you can and you’ll grow up to be great traders one day. But until I am past my prime and you’re still in diapers at the trading desk, “The Fly” presides supreme.

I closed the session higher again by 33bps, not tricked or fooled by the mixture of currents. I was neither angered or delighted by any of the news — just internalized it all and pushed it down deep into the bottom of my gut and used my eyes to see the market. Some of you think you see the tape — but you really don’t and the proof is my returns against yours.

The NASDAQ higher today extends the winning streak for the index to 22 of the past 24 weeks.

Into tomorrow, I have hand crafted longs hedged with short the NASDAQ, short the Russell, and short the fucking scientists in the biotech sector to satiate my desire to maintain control and to slow down the violent moves that rack the plebeian class of investor with outsized losses. I, Sir, do not partake in such frivolities.

On most days I want to execute the people I dislike according to the style of the music I am listening to. On some days I listen to baroque classical and on other big band jazz. According to the style of the music, I conjure up ways I’d dip my enemies into hot tar, or break their bones into dust against carriage wheels. But then I am transported back into real life and remember the wonderful meal I ate last week at one of my favorite restaurants, or the latte served at one of my favorite coffee shops, or the kindness bestowed upon me my strangers and ground myself in the resolute conviction that most people are good.

Humans create wonderful things and we make each other laugh, cry and vomit all over each other — based upon the caprices trending at the moment. I will admit to being blackpilled by the real time reactions to many people on X — but then again — I can recall many a time saying the most outlandish things only to be recanted later on.

It’s also important to remember the plebeian class holds little to zero sway over governmental edicts and the garrulous third estate likes to pretend their Tweets on X is causing some sort of revolution, when in fact they’re not. The institutions are the same and the same creatures who inhabited them before your tweet are there now collecting their wages to do dastardly things.

So what is the solution?

The answer is always happiness. One can achieve this in various ways: love, success, creativity, selflessness etc.

After these thoughts are published and sent out to the world, I will most likely immediately tweet something to gin up controversy or bring awareness to something that pisses people off. I cannot help it and it is in my nature. But it doesn’t help to hide the evils of the world and we all hope that one day is improves. We do not yearn for perfection — but order and safety and peaceful coexistence without spiteful people doing spiteful things.

For me, I find joy in trading stocks, writing, doing videos with my writing, finding new ways to create enemies — reading, listening to music (anything but rap is acceptable), listening to Audibles when in car or shower. I used to be something of a mixologist, but now focus more on health so booze is really out. I also used to smoke an estate pipe once per week or a cigar once per month — but I’ve limited that too since I do believe to be disciplined is to be content and nothing is worse than hedonism and doing what you like all the time.

I do drink coffee about 2 to 3 times per day; but I make sure not to enjoy it too much and would never add any sugar to it and really try to limit the amount of milk as well, since coffee black is the best version of coffee and the best version of black coffee is espresso or an Americano.

I’ll get back to market commentary in my next post.

Another day where the NASDAQ is higher and the small caps collapse. But the more important data point is the US 10yr +7bps. All of you retards were popping champagne corks into each other’s faces last week when rates came down. You said “duhhhhh, Powell and the Fed have our backs,” when in fact none of that shit is true. The Fed wouldn’t urinate on your flaming bodies if needed.

I opened up the session +45bps, thanks in large part to my supernatural abilities to see the market, at all times. I have 10% in $TZA and 44% cash, the rest in a pastiche of well placed longs.

My confidence levels right here for a strong move in either direction is low. Therefore I’ll wait until it breaks in either direction.

Ultimately, my job is now to retain the 6% returns I’ve achieved in November, grow them if easy, but maintain them at all costs. We are not river boat gamblers and aren’t desperate or deranged to the point of taking on too much risk for the sake of making all of the money now. We are gentlemen of the first order and comport ourselves with the dignity of our class, so fuck off.

Since this blog has been, more or less, one doom cast after the next for the past 3 years, I thought I’d mix it up and think ‘outside the box’ and offer you some glimmers of hope in an otherwise apocalyptic landscape.

The war in Ukraine will wind down peacefully, leaving Russia in the Donbas and Zelensky in Kiev, who will then be re-elected President to preside in Brussels as the newest member of NATO. We will then station nuclear missiles inside Kiev and battleships in Odessa to assert US hegemony.

The war in Gaza will end without any of its neighbors intervening. In the end, Israel and the US will convince and cajole, threaten even, Egypt to create a new city for Gazans. Israel will then settle the newly captured territories and continue working on the new trade corridor from China through Saudi Arabia through Israel into Europe.

With the wars concluded, the US can then focus on the real threats to the country: COMMUNIST CHINA and white supremacists.

We will arm Taiwan with nuclear missiles to prevent a Chinese incursion, whilst at the same time declare the “one China policy”, where we pretend to believe Taiwan is still part of China, to still be official US doctrine — all but gaslighting the Chinese to death. Since 20-30% of our Ivy leagues are populated by Chinese students, we might need to place limits on our “elite making institutions” in order to protect American democracy.

Lastly the issues of white supremacy must be stomped out for good. The final solution will be to mandate that at least 60% of government jobs and in the private sector employ “persons of color.” Reparations for the blacks will also be necessary by affixing a 10% tax to all whites for the sins of the people who had their skin color back in the early 1800s.

Protected groups will include gays, trans, law enforcement, and those married to a person of color.

With these new programs in place, the pervasive evils of white supremacy can finally be stomped out and Americans can continue to loot and shoot each other to their heart’s desire, without the annoyance of laws and order — liberal democratic ideals that produced slavery and Chinese railroad workers.

When I switched sides to the transgendered bulls, the comments section was bedlam — people decrying that I was a ‘traitor to my people’ and how I had marked ‘the top’ and had ‘gotten in too late.’ I always am amused and find it curious to see how people respond to my market calls, akin to some random fat slob in the stands offering advice to Babe Ruth on how to hit a fastball.

Good Sirs, I have long established a rich history in trading success here. I have proven all of my critics wrong to the point they no longer exist outside of the shadows and can only call me things in the privacy of their homes.

I STAND BEFORE YOU A CHAMPION AMONGST CHAMPIONS, +360bps for the session — fully robed and honored by the Gods amidst heavily perfumed rooms and decadent surroundings. With a small portion of my winnings, I might venture out to buy a luxury watch, or not. It’s entirely up to me, as I am the master of my own destiny and no one can stop me.

Today’s rally was buoyed most by the collapse in rates, all but factoring in a 100bps cut in 2024. If you look closely into what stocks moved most, they were the companies most distressed, free cash flow burners in the biotech and tech sectors. These were the companies left for dead last week, renewed this week by dreams of lower rates and access to capital. At the end of the day, this is what is driving the market — the relationship between capital and the cost to borrow it.

The long narrative is entirely driven by this point and should rates jimmy back higher next week, this entire move will be revoked.

Due to my aversion to being tricked into fanciful ideas, I took a bearish position on bonds by shorting them, opened up hedges against the fucking scientists in the biotech field and took a variety of defensive long positions with 34% reserved in cash. It’s worth mentioning I also have a volatility long, as the VIX straddles a 15 handle in a global environment that can produce world war.

The average return for the $IWM is +2.7% for November. We are already +6%, so put that into perspective when you mindlessly and stupidly call for more upside in this environ.

Playing devil’s advocate, should rates not climb and earnings continue to come in as expected, there’s no reason why we can’t trade up another 3-5% from now to December. It’s worth mentioning that I believe we are mirroring the price action of late 2018. If at all curious, which I am sure you’re not, go ahead and check out what the fucking NASDAQ did during December of 2018.

Have a pleasant fucking weekend.

There were those out there who didn’t heed my warnings, but you had ample time to position accordingly. I perfectly navigated both the downside and now the upside and the only thing left for me to do is to revel in my glory and splendor and tell you to fuck off.

Today’s bounty.

Up 3.32% for the session. Annual gains approach +50%: RECOURD HIGHS.

At the moment I’m 100% cash in my trading, enjoying the fruits of my labor.

I will make this brief because I do not have time to talk to any of you.

This is not an opinion but an announcement based on fact. The doom and gloomers have been dispatched and their heads cut off. The Biden Bull Market is back with full compliments — highlighted by grandiose and eloquent price action into the final hour of trade cajoled me into the largest bullish positions in centuries, for yours truly.

I carved out gains of +207bps — but my real focus is on tomorrow. Into the weekend, a time and place when anything can happen, I do not want as much long exposure as I have now. The seasonal trends are in fact ROBUST — but we mustn’t believe the extension of the rally will proceed without pauses and bumps along the way.

The green light is visible amidst the din of yellow cocktail music. Do not permit your intense inner hatred falsely color your outlook on equities in the short term. You’d be wise to remember that I am the most bearish man in America and have switched sides, albeit temporarily, in order to finance my operations.

Can I be wrong here and markets head back lower?

Absolutely not.

Good day.

When I’m not on X ginning up controversy, I’m in my time machine — traversing space and time to help me with my stock picks. Much of what we do is predicated on our feeeeeeelings; but from time to time we take the 30,000 foot view and truly analyze the situation, concoct a plan, act upon said plan, and within a few days ditch said plan in exchange for our feeeeeelings again.

This blog is about all of that. I will introduce to you a cogent plan for November, which will make sense to both you and I — but neither of us will actually heed the analysis and do whatever the fuck we wanted to do anyway.

Here goes.

$SHOP beat earnings, which means the consumer isn’t as desolate and poor as we once hoped. Using the seasonality tools inside Stocklabs, I found some very obvious trends for November.

Retail is all of the rage, much to do about BLACK FRIDAY and barreling headlong, fat and gay, into the pagan holidays.

How pervasive is this? Quite.

It is, by far, the best month for shares of $WMT — going back all the way to 1972.

That’s right fucked face. Walmart has traded higher 72% of the time in November going back 50 fucking years.

The $QQQ trades up 76% of the time in November, going back to 1999. This is the best month for stocks — hands down.

So this is what we want to do. Listen to be very closely.

WE WANT TO BUY THE FUCKING MARKET, LEAN INTO HER. FOCUS ON RETAIL AND INGRATIATE OURSELVES IN THE RICHES WE DESERVE — TAKING PROFITS ALONG THE WAY — AVOIDING TEMPTATION AND THE ALLURE TO SELL IT SHORT.

As a small aside, oil doesn’t bode well during the holidays. The seasonal trends are much stronger than you’d believe.

Back to work fucked faces. You have information now and guidance to act upon. Make me proud.