NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, trading down a few ticks below Tuesday’s midpoint before finding a responsive bid around 6am New York.  Then at around 8:13am Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross spoke optimistically about finalizing changes to the U.S.-Canada-Mexico trade agreement, sending futures spiraling higher.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering below the Monday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11am followed by a 10-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  The day began with a slight gap down that buyers drove higher into.  Said buying stalled just above overnight high, just after tagging the open gap left behind on the last trading day of November.  From then, onward price rotated lower, suggesting that the conviction sellers spotted on December 2nd were still active and defending their entry.  Price methodically traded lower, closing near low-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into this trade deal spike, closing the overnight gap down to 8356.25.  From there we continue lower, down to 8330 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers reverse the entire trade deal spike, trading down through overnight low 8297.  Look for buyers down at 8291.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers press up through overnight high 8383.50, working up to 8400.  Look for sellers up at 8404.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price drifted lower overnight after briefly trading up beyond last week’s high.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering a few point below Friday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have 13- and 26-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by 2-year FRN and 3-year Note auctions at 1pm.

Last week kicked off with a slight gap down then a fast drive lower. The drive erased all of the pre-Thanksgiving rally before catching a bid and slowly rotating back near the midpoint.  Tuesday featured a strong gap down and early on it looked as if we may take out November lows.  However a responsive bid stepped in and droev price higher, ending the session just below the Monday low.  Wednesday gap up which was consolidated (sideways) though Thursday, and by Friday afternoon, after a gap up and slow rotation higher, we were right where we started the week off.  The Russell, a bit higher.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

 

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up.  The day began with a gap up and small drive higher.  The move consolidated sideways for a few hours before buyers reasserted themselves, eventually trading a few ticks below the weekly high before ending the week near session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 8400 then look for a continued move higher, up through overnight high 8415 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers press up to 8440.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight low 8380.50 and continue lower, trading down to 8326 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into the week flat after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range.  Price was balanced overnight, rotating a few points beyond last week’s high before slowly moving down back near the Friday low.  As we approach cash open, we are off the low by about 10 points and flat verses last week’s close.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM employment/manufacturing at 10am followed by both 13- and 26-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week we rallied.  We came into the week gap up and drove higher.  The rally extended through Wednesday.  Thursday markets were closed in observation of Thanksgiving.  Friday was a half day and price slowly rotated lower.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap down, down near the Wednesday midpoint.  Buyers made a slight move higher, but were unable to fill the gap.  Instead sellers pressed range extension down through noon.  As the market came to a halt around 1:15pm New York, a slight ramp occurred, sending price back up to the midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work higher, closing the Wednesday gap 8453.75 and trading up through overnight high 8457.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down to 8400 before buyers step in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 8479.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

 

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into the last full trading session of the month with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  Price worked higher overnight, tagging a new all-time high. As we approach cash open, price is hovering near the high, above the Tuesday range.

There are several economic events today, all of low impact. Chicago purchasing manager 9:45am, PCE core and pending home sales and 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, 7-year note auction at 11:30am and Fed Beige Book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a slight gap up that was resolved during an open two-way auction.  Buyers eventually stepped in and worked the market range extension up.  The afternoon was spent rotating back to the daily midpoint before a late-session ramp returned price to the day’s high. The overnight stat was never taken out.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 8430.25 on their way to 8450 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 8390.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 tight chop from 8405.25 to 8430.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measures moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price worked higher, taking out Thursday high around 10pm New York and sustaining trade above it until about 8:45am when chatter about a China/U.S. trade deal crossed the news feeds and caused a poke back down into Thursday range.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering a few point above Thursday’s high.

On the economic calendar today we have markit composite/manufacturing/services PMI at 9:45am followed by University of Michigan’s final November reading of sentiment at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  The day began with a gap down and open drive lower.  Buyers stepped in ahead of the Wednesday low and trade was choppy before sellers made a move down through overnight low.  Sellers were again unable to trigger a move down through the Wednesday lows, instead we rallied back up through the range and went neutral by a few points, stopping shy by 2.5 points of an overnight gap fill however, before settling back to the midpoint by end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to drive up and away from the Thursday high 8289 setting up a move to take out overnight high 8313.50.  Look for buyers to tag the Wednesday naked VPOC at 8325.75, then look for sellers up at 8339.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press into overnight inventory and reclaim Thursday range, setting up a gap fill down to 8274.  Then we continue lower, down through overnight low 8265.25.  Look for buyers to defend around 8250 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 sellers are stronger, taking out Wednesday low 8231, setting up a move down to 8200 before two way trade ensues.  Stretch targets on a full-on liquidation: 8159.25 then 8188.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price was balanced overnight, holding Thursday range.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering above the Wednesday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have existing home sales at 10am, 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am and a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down / neutral day.  The day began with a gap down that buyers went to work resolving early on.  Buyers even pushed range extension up for a moment, tagging the Tuesday naked VPOC before sellers came in.  Sellers drifted price back down near the session low before a strong liquidation drive pushed price down.  This selling served to resolve last Thursday’s open gap before discovering responsive buyers who worked price back up to the midpoint by day’s end.

Double distribution neutral day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 8308 setting up a move to tag the naked VPOC at 8324 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 8339 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 8240 setting up a move to tag 8200 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price worked lower overnight, working down through overnight low by midnight and sustaining trade below it.  As we approach cash open, price is a few points below the Tuesday low.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am followed by FOMC minutes at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up to new all-time highs.  High was set during globex.  Before buyers could work up through globex high, sellers were active, driving lower on the open to close the overnight gap.  Sellers continued lower, tagging the Monday midpoint before rotating back up through the daily midpoint and chopping above it into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 8338.50.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 8343.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers pres sup to 8358.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go down, taking out overnight low 8291.50 which sets up the gap fill down to 8265.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, uni-directionally rotating up to a new all-time high.  At 8:30am Housing starts/building permits data came out mixed.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering at all-time highs.

There are no other major economic events today.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a slight gap down and drive lower.  The selling pushed into the Thursday gap zone but sellers were unable to fill it.  Instead responsive buyers stepped in and we spent the rest of the session auctioning higher.  We ended the day in the upper quadrant.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go higher, up through overnight high 8379 to tag 8381.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 8381.50 setting up a run to 8400.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 8333.25.  From here they continue lower, down through overnight low 8317.25.  Look for buyers down at 8300 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, rallying in the early AM hours alongside Asian markets, notably the HKEX which was up more than 1.2% at one point overnight.  Then around 8:30am CNBC released a statement from a Chinese government source that erased all those early AM gains, and more.  China wants to wait until the American “Who wants to be a President?” contest and impeachment hearings are finished.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering above last Friday’s midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have NAHB housing market index at 10am, 13- and 26-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am, and net long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Last week began with a gap down, then some chop with a slight upward bias through Thursday, then a rally Friday.  The Russell lagged behind all week.  Here is the last week performance of each major index:

On Friday, the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up to new all-time highs.  Sellers worked into the overnight inventory but were rejected before they could reclaim the week’s prior high range.  Buyers took control from there working back up to a new high, then chopping until a late session ramp to end the week on the highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and return to ‘the scene of the crime (news)’ taking out overnight high 8367.  Look for sellers up at 8381.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 8306.50 and tag 8300, then look for buyers down at 8289 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 8265.50 (Thursday gap) then tag 8254.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday up a quick +40 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, chopping a bit at 8300 before continuing its ascent to new all-time high prices.  At 8:30 advance retail sales data came out stronger-than-expected.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering at all-time highs, about 10 points above 8300.

Also on the economic calendar today we have industrial/manufacturing production data at 9:15am followed by business inventories at 10am.

After the bell Thursday, major semiconductor component Nvidia reported stronger than expected earnings:

NVIDIA Q3 Adj. EPS $1.78 Beats $1.58 Estimate, Sales $3.01B Beat $2.92B Estimate 
 
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) reported quarterly earnings of $1.78 per share which beat  
the analyst consensus estimate of $1.58 by 12.66 percent. This is a 3.26  
percent decrease over earnings of $1.84 per share from the same period last  
year.  The company reported quarterly sales of $3.01 billion which beat the  
analyst consensus estimate of $2.92 billion by 3.08 percent.  This is a 5.38  
percent decrease over sales of $3.181 billion the same period last year.

Shares of NVDA are unchanged in pre-market trade.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The day began with a gap down and two way auction.  Buyers eventually stepped in and started working the gap fill but stalled out a few points shy of it before sellers drove price down to new low of day.  The selling pushed down near Monday’s midpoint before responsive buyers stepped in.  Said buyers reversed all the selling, and more, working up into a neutral print and eventually closing on session high, a few points above the Wednesday close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up to 8336 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers pivot up-and-away from 8336 to tag 8350.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 8265.50.  Look for a tag of the massive composite VPOC at 8255.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »