NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume and range. Price worked higher overnight, trading up into a three-day micro balance spanning from 01/13 – 01/15. Sellers rejected a move up into this area around 3:30am New York, but buyers reemerged and probed the area again. At 8:30am durable goods orders came in stronger than expected. As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the low-value area of the 01/13-01/15 micro-composite balance.

Also on the economic calendar today we have consumer confidence at 10am, 2-year Notes and 52-week T-bills auctioning at 11:30am, a 7-year Note auction at 1pm.

Then major NASDAQ component Apple reports earnings after the bell.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.; The day began with a pro gap down to a new 11-day low. Buyers were on the scene after a sharp move lower on the open. They defended their conviction buy range from 01/08. WE spent the rest of the session working higher, eventually forming a weak high just above 9000. Selelrs drove price back down below the midpoint late in the day and we ended the session below the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and tag the 9000 level before responsive buyers (responsive relative to the open, initiative relative to Monday’s close) step in and work up through overnight high 9040, working higher to close the open gap at 9059.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work a full gap fill down to 8954 then continue lower, down through overnight low 8949.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers flush down to 8900, setting up a move to check back to the Iran conflict level 886 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday pro gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. The globex session kicked off Sunday night with about a -70 point gap down and then drove lower before coming into balance above 9000, levels unseen since January 10th.  Then another leg lower took shape, trading down into the 01/08 conviction buying range, which was a pivot up-and-away from the initial reaction to U.S. air strike in Iran. As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the upper quadrant of this conviction buying range set back on 01/08.

On the economic calendar today we have new home sales at 10am followed by 13- and 26-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am. Then 2- and 5-year Note auctions at 1pm.

Last week was holiday shortened, with markets closed Monday in observation of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. day. On Tuesday we opened gap down and had a choppy Tuesday with buyers resolving the down gap before giving up much of their gains and eventually returning to the daily midpoint by close.  Wednesday was gap up to record highs before some afternoon selling erased the day’s upward progress. Thursday served to work price back up to record highs before a gap up to new record highs Friday set up a trend down Friday.

We ended the week lower. The Russell was divergent weak the whole time.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a trend down. The day began with a gap up to new record highs. After a two-way auction sellers stepped in and began driving lower, resolving the overnight gap before driving down through the entire Thursday range. Price sort of came into balance near the end of the session but sellers could still be seen exerting control.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower, trading down through overnight low 8942.50. Look for buyers down at 8925.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade down to the 8900 century mark then continue lower, down to 8865 (Iran air strike level) before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work into the overnight inventory, reclaiming 9000 and sustaining trade above it, setting up a move to 9040 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price worked higher overnight, propelled by strong earnings out of major NASDAQ component Intel after the bell Thursday:

Intel  Q4 EPS $1.58 Vs $1.12 Last Year
Intel's revenues for the quarter were up 8% to $20.2 billion from last year's revenue of $18.7 billion. Analysts had a consensus revenue estimate of $19.23 billion for the quarter.

As we approach cash open, price is hovering along all-time record highs.

On the economic calendar today we have Markit composite data at 9:45am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up, mostly due to Intel earnings, otherwise it would be classified as a normal variation up.  The day began with a slight gap down that sellers drove down into before a sharp excess low formed.  The rest of the day we spent slowy auctioning higher, with a grind taking form in the late afternoon before the Intel earnings sent price careening higher. Trade halted before buyers could take out all-time high.  It was later accomplished in globex.

Heading into today my primary expectation if for sellers to work up to 9300 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 9248.45.   Look for buyers down at 9213 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 9200.  Look for buyers down at 9183.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on normal range. Price was balanced overnight, chopping along the Wednesday low. Sellers defended two whacks up into the midpoint. At 8:30am initial/continuing jobless claims data came out better than expected. As we approach cash open, price is hovering along the Wednesday low, which is a few point below the Wednesday’s close.

Also on the economic calendar today we have leading index at 10am followed by crude oil inventories at 11am.

Be aware that major semiconductor Intel is set to report earnings after the bell. Given the extended nature of the PHLX semiconductor index, a primary driver of our current broad market rally, and that Intel is a major component of that index, these earnings are likely to give some pause to the market, intra-day, then potentially reveal direction into the tail-end of the week.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a gap up beyond the Tuesday high. After a brief two-way auction at the open buyers drove higher, achieving new record highs and briefly pushing range extension up before responsive sellers stepped in and drove price back down through the daily midpoint. From then-on price was choppy, walking all over the midpoint before eventually succumbing to selling pressure late in the session that pushed us range extension down (neutral). The day ended near session low (neutral extreme), with buyers attempting to reject a move back into Tuesday range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and take out overnight high 9210.75. From here we continue higher, tagging 9238.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 9266 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 9173.75, then close the open gap from Tuesday at 919.75.  Look for buyers down at 9142.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight until about 9:30pm New York when a strong bid entered the market. Said buying to price to a new record high before coming into balance again for the duration of Globex. As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the middle of this mini-balance.

On the economic calendar today we have existing home sales at 10am.

Yesterday was the first trading day of the week and we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap down, with price beginning the holiday-shortened week at last Friday’s midpoint and volume point of control.  Buyers stepped in early on and worked price higher, closing the overnight gap then continuing a few points beyond the Friday high before falling back to the daily mid in the afternoon.  Sellers were asserting themselves into the close as we ended the session in a choppy manner, along the mid.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up to 9266 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into overnight inventory, breaking down and out of the mini balance low (around 9211) setting up a gap fill down to 9169.75.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 9165.50. Look for buyers down at 9142.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 9300 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the second trading day of 2020 down a quick -95 after a hectic trading session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price marked a new all-time high briefly overnight, drifting a few points above 8900 before news hit the wires late in the evening the President Donald Trump successfully bombarded and killed Qassem Soleimani, Iranian Major General in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and from 1998 until his death, commander of its Quds Force, a division primarily responsible for extraterritorial military and clandestine operations.  The news collapsed price back down into the thick of Thursday’s auction where price action balanced out for a few hours before continuing its campaign lower around 2:30am New York.  Price traded nearly down to the closing print of 2019 before a responsive bid stepped in.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering just below yesterday’s low.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM employment/manufacturing along with construction spending at 10am, followed by crude oil inventories at 11am.  Energy traders are likely to pay closer attention to the oil reserves ahead of a perceived uptick in middle eastern tensions.  Then at 2pm we have FOMC meeting minutes out, minutes from their December rate decision.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up that trended higher into the close.  The day (year) began with a gap up and drive higher.  Buyers pressed up beyond record highs during the open and sustained trade above it for about 20 minutes before responsive buyers stepped in.  Higher timeframe participants were active, as seen in the way the auction crossed back-and-forth several times across the daily midpoint.  The sellers briefly pressed below the opening print and daily low but before they could go range extension down responsive buyers (responsive relative to Thursday’s open, initiative relative to Tuesday’s close) stepped in and worked price range extension up.  From there price drove higher, exploring open air right up into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to reject a move back into the Thursday low 8802.25 setting up a move down through overnight low 8735.25.  Look for buyers down at 8722.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers trade down to 8715.75 before two way trade

Hypo 3 buyers reclaim Thursday low 8802.25 and set their sights on 8837.25.  We chop around at these levels, stalling between 8842 and 8800 into the weekend.

Hypo 4 full-on liquidation. Higher time frame sellers rip through several support levels, pausing at 8600 and then again at 8546.50.  This is the only scenario where “something has changed”.  Otherwise the prevailing conditions (rally) continue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the first trading day of 2020 gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  The overnight session featured a slow, unidirectional move higher, with price rallying up near all-time record highs but stalling just before taking them out.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering near the highs.

On the economic calendar today we have manufacturing PMI at 9:45am followed by 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

On the last trading day of 2019, New Year’s eve, the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down inside range that buyers quickly resolved with a drive higher on the open.  From there price rotated back down though the daily midpoint before chopping along it for many hours.  Then we ramped higher into the close, making a new daily high and closing near session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 8831 to tag 8842.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 8900 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and take out overnight low 8769.50 on their way to close the 2019 open gap down to 8766.  Look for buyers down at 8748 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday up a quick +50 after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price slowly drove higher overnight, drifting up into the open air of all-time record highs.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering in uncharted RTH waters, right up at overnight high.

On the economic calendar today we have Markit Composit PMI at 9:45am, NAHB housing market index at 10am, 26- and 13-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am and Long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Last week began flat-ish, a slight gap down.  An early Monday drive higher revealed a pocket of responsive sellers and we spent the next three day marking time, sideways. Then Wednesday, after the FOMC meeting announcement and Fed chairman press conference, we began to campaign higher. Said campaign was accented Thursday morning by a President Trump tweet about progress in the ongoing trade negotiations with China.  This strong buying was met with nearly an equal amount of selling before eventually being overrun with buy orders.  Friday we made more highs then drifted sideways into the weekend.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a slight gap down and after an open two-way auction price made new highs.  The action was choppy.  We cut down through the daily midpoint for a few hours before eventually walking back over it and ending the day in a tight chop, chopping along the upper quadrant in an algorithmic holding pattern.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go hgiher, exploring open air up to 8594 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press into the weekend gap and trade down to 8519.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 8500 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range on extreme volume. Price was balanced for most of the overnight session before succumbing to a bit of selling pressure around 8am New York.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering near Wednesday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have initial/continuing jobless claims data at 8:30am, 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am and a 30-year bond auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  the day began with a gap up in range that was resolved during an open two-way auction.  Then buyers stepped in and worked up near Tuesday high but did not take it out before we settled into a sideways grind ahead of the FOMC meeting announcement.  The Fed struck a neutral tone, perhaps a bit more hawkish than expected.  Buyers came in after the announcement and worked up beyond the Tuesday high.  We consolidated along the highs into day’s end.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 8405.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 8430.  Look for sellers up at 8440 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers fill the gap up at 8453.75 then continue higher, tagging 8474 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work down to 8365.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on extreme volume.  Price worked sideways-to-higher overnight, balancing along Tuesday’s midpoint for much of the globex session.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the upper quadrant of Tuesday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have an FOMC meeting announcement at 2pm followed by a Fed Chair press conference at 2:30pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap up that sellers quickly resolved after the open.  Said sellers were met with strong responsive buying ahead of the open gap left behind last Friday morning.  Buyers then worked price to range extension up, traveling up to the Monday midpoint before settling into a chop along the upper side of the daily midpoint.  Late in the session sellers asserted themselves and returned price back down near the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to drive higher off the open, taking out overnight high 8394 and tagging 8404 before two way trade ensues. Then look for the third move after the FOMC announcement to dictate direction into the close.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to Monday naked VPOC 8420 before two way chop ensues.  Then look for the third move after the FOMC announcement to dictate direction into the close.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 8364.  From here they continue lower, down to 8334.75 before chop ensues.  Then look for the third move after the FOMC announcement to dictate direction into the close.

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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