NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price took out Wednesday’s high and held above it until about 9pm New York when price reversed lower. Sellers worked price back down through the Wednesday midpoint and further, down near the lower quad of Wednesday’s range. Sellers were unable to take out Wednesday low before we began rotating higher. This up rotation stalled out near Wednesday high before we fell back to the Wednesday midpoint.

In short, balance.

As we approach cash open, buyers are rallying price up off the Wednesday midpoint and we are down about -60.

On the economic calendar today we have leading index at 10am, 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am and a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap down near Tuesday low. Buyers drove higher off the open, working up through the Tuesday midpoint but unable to close the overnight gap before sellers stepped in. Said sellers reclaimed the midpoint and pivoted from it, making new low of day to press range extension down. Sellers continued lower, marking a new swing low. Late in the session we ramped back up through the midpoint and closed in the upper quadrant.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7205.50. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7424. Look for sellers up at 7432.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 7432.50 setting up a move to tag 7500. From here we probe above the Tuesday high 7537, setting up a move to tag the composite VPOC at 7700.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 6874.25 on their way down to 6800 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures locked limit down around 1:20am New York after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on extreme range. Liquidity is low in the globex markets. The overnight session was balanced for about two hours, then around 6:30pm it began to rotate lower, methodically moving down near the lower quadrant of Tuesday’s range before finding a bid. Said bidders spiked price back up to the Tuesday midpoint. Sellers were here and we spent the rest of the session moving lower until locking limit down near the high-end of Tuesday’s bottom quadrant.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap up and two way auction. Sellers eventually worked into the tape, closing the overnight low but unable to take out Monday’s low. Instead buyers stepped in and began working price higher, tagging the Monday naked VPOC along the way and nearly taking out the Monday high. Instead a massive amount of volume was transacted on the daily high, putting a distinct VPOC on the day’s profile before price rotated back to the midpoint. Buyers defended the midpoint and we spent the rest of the day chopping above the mid, eventually closing in the upper quad of range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for some kind of gap down when the circuit breaker lets loose. Sellers move to take out Tuesday low 6906 but are unable to do so. Instead buyers come in and work a gap fill higher, trading up to 7383.75 then up through overnight high 7398.75. This sets up a move to 7500. Look for sellers up at 7600 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to the composite VPOC at 7700 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through Tuesday low 6906 setting up a liquidation. Targets are the century marks 6800 and 6700.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Overnight trade was halted for about six hours around 10:00pm New York after the upside circuit breaker was triggered. Upon reopening price rotated back down near overnight low, but could not take it out. Instead we have been in a big chop ever since, chopping and compressing price.

On the economic calendar today we have Industrial production at 9:15am followed by business inventories at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a gap down and drive lower, with price initially working down to levels unseen since early last June. Then buyers stepped in and began working price higher. By mid morning we were back inside last Friday’s range. Price went range extension up, tagging last Friday’s naked VPOC and exceeding it by a few ticks (a level which coincided with the circuit breaker we hit Sunday evening when futures went limit down). That was all the upside we’d see on the day. From here responsive sellers stepped in (responsive relative to Monday’s open, initiative relative to Friday’s close) and worked price back down to the daily midpoint. We chopped along the mid for a few hours before a sharp move lower near the the close which made new low of day, trading down to levels unseen since February 11th (an old open gap). We closed near session low.

Neutral extreme.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 7277.25 which sets up a move to tag 7300 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7042. From here we continue lower down through overnight low 6964, setting up a liquidation down to 6800.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers rally to 7600 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday down a quick -360 after an overnight session featuring normal volume (markets were halted about 20 minutes into trading) on extreme range. Sunday markets began with a gap down and push lower that was briefly reversed following an unprecedented stimulus action from the Federal Reserve, who surprise lowered interest rates to zero percent and did $700 billion worth of QE. Buying on that news was quickly reversed, and by 6:20pm New York futures hit the circuit breaker and were halted. Heading into cash open, the price was halted a bit below the Friday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have 13- and 26-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by Long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Last week began with futures limit down. After strong selling to begin Monday we had a responsive bid come in and work price strongly higher. This low held through Wednesday across the board before another strong limit down move happened Thursday night. Price was choppy until late Friday when we saw a surge higher into the weekend. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a limit up gap. After a two way open sellers stepped in and nearly filled the gap but could not before buyers stepped in. We traded back up through the midpoint and chopped all around it before a late-day rally saw price return to Wednesday’s low and reclaim it. We ended near session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a two-way open before buyers work into the overnight inventory work price to the composite VPOC 7700. We pause here before continuing higher, to close the overnight gap 7901. Look for sellers up at 8000 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 7556 setting up a move to tag 7000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 full on liquidation, hitting circuit breakers along the way, targeting 6900.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price drove lower until about 9pm New York. From then onward price chopped along the top side of 8100, forming a distinct shelf along the way. At 8:30am CPI data came out in-line with expectations. As we approach cash open, price is hovering below Tuesday’s midpoint, right along the 8100 level.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, 10-year note auction at 1pm and a 2-year monthly budget statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap up. After a two way auction sellers stepped in and close the overnight gap. From here buyers stepped in and returned price back up to the midpoint. We chopped along here until late in the day then we ramped higher, pushing neutral and closing near high of day for a neutral extreme print.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 8329.25, From here we continue higher, trading up through overnight high 8357.25. Look for sellers up at 8400 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers gap and go lower, trading down through 8000. Look for buyers down at 7900 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down 7800 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme rang and volume. Price briefly worked lower overnight, trading just a few ticks below the Monday low around 6pm New York before forming a failed auction and reversing higher. Around 7pm price spiked back to the Monday midpoint, and by 2am price was up beyond the Monday high. Price went as high as testing into the lower quadrant of last Friday’s range before finding sellers who rejected a move into the range. As we approach cash open, price is hovering along Monday’s high.

On the economic calendar today we have a 3-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a pro gap down and selling drive lower. The selling managed to close an old gap left behind on October 23rd of last year and halt the market for 15 minutes before a sharp responsive bid stepped in and we formed an excess low. The rest of the morning was spent rallying back up to the weekly ATR band. Sellers were here (the band also aligned with recent swing lows) and the afternoon was spent giving back most of the morning gains. We ended the day below the midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 8346 to tag the 8400 century mark. Look for sellers up at 8481 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers close last Friday’s gap up at  8506.50 gap before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 7951.75 setting up a move to take out overnight low 7814.25. Look for buyers down at 7761.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the week pro gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Globex kicked off Sunday night with a gap down an drive lower, the price action being spurred by news that the Sauids are planning an all-out price war in the oil markets along with continued coronavirus uncertainty. We hit the circut breaker around 5:30am New York and have been halted since. As we approach cash open, I am unsure, but it appears we will open below last week’s low, putting us in the range of late-October prices.

On the economic calendar today we have 13- and 26-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week began flat and then with buyers active. Said buyers worked higher through Tuesday before we chopped sideways midway through Thursday. Then sellers stepped back in and reversed much of the weekly gains. There was a strong ramp late Friday afternoon. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a pro gap down. Buyers drove higher during the first hour of trade and then managed to press range extension up. Buyers however were unable to reclaim the microbalance set up during the mid-week chop. Instead responsive sellers (responsive relative to Friday open, initiative relative to Thursday close) stepped in and reversed the day’s range, pushing into a neutral print. Then late in the session we ramped to a new high of day and closed near it.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower, trading down to 8000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and trade up to 8188 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up to 8200 and sustain trade above it, setting up a run to 8481 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday pro gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked lower overnight, uni-directionally traversing to a new low of week. At 8:30am Nonfarm payroll data came out stronger than expected. As we approach cash open, price is hovering near last Friday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have consumer credit at 3pm.

Costco earnings bested analyst expectations and the firm saw same store comps stronger than expected amid coronavirus fear-based purchasing. Shares are down -1.5% in pre-market trade.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down. The day began with a gap down in range right at the Wednesday VPOC. Buyers worked into the overnight inventory but could not fill the overnight gap. Instead responsive sellers (responsive relative to Thursday open, initiative relative to Wednesday close) stepped in right at the U.S. airstrike of Iran level and reversed the intra day gains, pushing us neutral. We then closed near session low, in the lower quad of Wednesday’s range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and trade up to 8581.25.  Look for sellers up at 8584 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers gap and go lower, trading down through overnight low 8337.25 to tag 8300. Look for buyers down at 8294.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 8258.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked lower overnight, unidirectional rotating down through the majority of Wednesday’s range, but staying within the cash range. As we approach cash open, price is hovering in the lower quadrant of Thursday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have durable goods and factory orders at 10am and 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Major retailer Costco is set to report earnings after the bell.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a gap up and two way auction. Sellers were unable to close the overnight gap before buyers stepped in and worked price higher. Said buyers tagged the Tuesday nVPOC then chopped along the midpoint until early afternoon when price squeezed higher. This move had some follow thru late in the day, but we ended up printing an inside day, with the entire range staying inside of Tuesday’s range. We ended near session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower, trading down to close the gap at 8581.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 8895 then continue higher, up through overnight high 8909.75. Look for sellers just above at 8921 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers set up a move to 9000.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ future are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked higher overnight after briefly poking below the Tuesday cash low by a few ticks. This failed auction set the stage for prices to work higher all night, eventually probing a big beyond the Tuesday midpoint. As we approach cash open, price is hovering along the Tuesday mid.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM-non manufacturing/services composite at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am and beige book at 2pm.

Super Tuesday saw Democratic contenders Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden split most of the vote.

Yesterday we printed double distribution trend down. The day began with a gap up that sellers quickly resolved with a open drive lower. Sellers struggled to reclaim Monday’s value area high, a double top print, ushering in buyers who drove price up to 9000. This all happened in the first hour of trade. We then formed a sharp excess low and went range extension down. After a checkback to the daily midpoint, price again rotated lower, eventually dipping down into the lower quadrant of Monday’s range. Buyers were active throughout the rotation but we ended near session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for seller to work into the overnight inventory but cannot close the overnight gap. Instead buyers step in around 8624 and work higher, trading up through overnight high 8809. Look for sellers up at 8888 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work a full gap fill down to 8581.25, setting up a move down through overnight low 8508.25. Look for buyers down at 8500 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 gap and go higher, trading up through 8888 and sustaining trade above it, setting up another run to 9000.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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