NASDAQ futures are set to enter Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price managed to recapture most of the FOMC buying reaction from last week on action that is seller controlled.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data looked slightly better than expectations, as did Durable Goods Orders.  Ex-transports, the 8:30am Durable Goods data looked weak.

Also on the economic docket today we have Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am and the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Price opened gap down and sellers pressed lower off the open.  Responsive buyers stepped in ahead of Tuesday’s low but were ultimately overrun late in the day before two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and trade up to 4381.25.  Look for sellers to defend here and work to take out overnight low 4365 setting up a move to target 4343 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through 4381.25 and sustain trade above it setting up a gap fill to 4396.75.  From here overnight high is an easy take up at 4397.25.  Look for responsive sellers at 4412 then two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press off the open and trade down to 4342.75 early.  Responsive buyers defend here but are ultimately overrun.  Downside target is the measured move down to 4337.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are heading into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price briefly took out the Tuesday high before settling into balance.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications had no impact on the tape.

Also on the economic docket today we have New Home Sales at 10am, Crude oil inventory at 10:30am, and a 2-year floating rate note auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  Price opened gap down and a strong open drive worked price higher, closing the gap in the first 30 minutes.  From then on price went trend up, slowly.

The action was directional enough to break us away from the massive value area that began building on 3/16 after the FOMC rate decision [see market profile below].

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the tape and take out overnight low 4422 setting up a move to test 4408 before responsive buyers step in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers push up through overnight high 4441.25 setting up a move to target 4445.  Look for a continued move up to 4447 to close the open gap then responsive selling and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers push down through 4408 and sustain trade below it setting up a move to target the massive VPOC at 4395.  Trade gets choppy here, with responsive buyers the first go around, but any subsequent retests are likely to explore down to 4386.

Hypo 4 buyers sustain trade above 4447 and test 4452.50 before selling comes in.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are set to enter the session gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price briefly exceeded yesterday’s low before coming into balance at the apex of a multi-day value formation [see market profile image below].

On the economic calendar today we have House Price Index at 9am, Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am, and a 4-week T-Bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  A choppy open gave way to selling, albeit briefly, which pushed the market range extension down.  Moments later bidders arrived and worked price back up through the entire daily range, eventually closing the day out near the highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4416.25.  This puts us in range to test above overnight high 4420.50.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4424.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers defend the 4400 handle and work price lower to take out overnight low 4383.75.  Look for responsive buyers around 4370 and two way trade to ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buying pushes up through 4424.50 and sustains trade above it, setting up a secondary leg higher to target 4445.

Hypo 4 selling liquidation takes hold.  Take out overnight low 4383.75 early then sustain trade below 4370 setting up a move to target 4345.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are set for a slight gap down opening after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price traversed most of the Friday range, holding the low before zooming higher to briefly make a new swing high before retracing most of the move.

On the economic calendar today we have Existing Home Sales at 10am and a 3- and 6-month T-Bill auction at 11:30am.

Last week price worked higher.  NASDAQ waited to hear the FOMC rate decision then proceeded to rally through the end of the week.  Friday we printed a normal variation up on a session that was balanced overall.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4394.75.  From here look for a move to take out overnight high 4414 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong buyers push up through overnight high 4414 and work higher to target 4425 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers push down through overnight low 4376.75.  Look for responsive buyers down near 4360 and two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are priced to open modest gap up after a balanced overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  The Globex session was literally the most mild one, year-to-date.  Price held yesterday’s mid on a test down to up and is now up near weekly highs.

On the economic agenda we have U of Michigan Confidence at 10am and Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  There was a hard move lower off the open that quickly fizzled out and price spent the rest of the session churning higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4393.  From here look for a move to take out overnight high 4405.75 then continue higher to probe above the weekly high 4407.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers keep the gap open and race up through overnight high 44057.75 early on before sustaining trade above 4407.75 to set up a move to target 4416 before two way trade ensues.  Stretch targets on the upside are 4424.75 then 4444.75.

Hypo 3 sellers close gap down to 4393 then take out overnight low 4384.25.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4378.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong sellers show up, take out overnight low 4384.25 then set out to target 4343 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are priced for a gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated volume and range.  Price breached the Wednesday high before rolling over early this morning.  On the way down, price managed to hold yesterday’s range before settling into two way trade.  At 8:30am we heard from the Philadelphia Fed and also Initial/Continuing Jobless claims.  The initial reaction is buying.

Also on the economic calendar today we have JOLTS Job Openings and Leading Indicators at 10am, and at 1pm there is a 10-Year TIPS auction.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The gap down to start the session was quickly bid up in an opening drive.  Sellers worked in ahead of the Fed rate decision by were ultimately overrun during the reaction to the unchanged rates.  Price worked higher to close the 10/21 open gap at 4399 before responsive sellers stepped in and faded the move.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4386.75.  Look for sellers to defend the 4400 century mark before a long balance takes hold.  Late in the session look for a move to take out overnight low 4359.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong buyers close overnight gap up to 4386.75 then push up through 4400 and sustain trade above it setting up a move to take out overnight high 4412.75.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4416.  Stretch targets are 4424.75 then 4444.75.

Hypo 3 sellers gap and go lower, take out overnight low 4359.75 early then work down to target 4343 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are set to open gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price briefly exceeding yesterday’s high on balanced trade.  At 8:30am the Consumer Price Index came out slightly better than expected [1.0% vs 0.9% expected] and introduced sellers who worked price below the midpoint of yesterday’s session.

There are several economic data points out today, with the FOMC Rate Decision at 2pm being the most significant.  The consensus forecast is for rates to stay unchanged at 0.50%.  The announcement will be followed by a press conference with Fed chair Yellen at 2:30pm.  Also on the docket we have Industrial/Manufacturing Production at 9:15am and crude oil inventory at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  it was a quiet session that briefly pressed to a new weekly low before printing a failed auction near last Friday’s VPOC and began trading higher.  Price slowly worked the overnight gap fill before settling into two way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyer to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4356.  From here look for a move up to 4360 before we settle into two-way trade ahead of the FOMC.

Hypo 2 sellers use this news-driven sell momentum to continue pushing lower and test yesterday’s low 4329.  Look for sellers to continue down to 4322.25 before two way trade ensues ahead of FOMC.

Hypo 3 strong buyers close gap up to 4356 then take out overnight high 4369 before settling into balance ahead of the Fed. Stretch targets are 4400 then 4407.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are set to gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price pushed lower for most of the session and briefly tested below yesterday’s low before finding a responsive bid and settling back into balance.  At 8:30am Advance Retail Sales came out slightly better than expectations.  So far participants have not reacted to the news.

On the economic docket today we have NAHB Housing Market Index and Business Inventories at 10am, a 4-week T-Bill auction at 11:30am, and Net Long-Term TIC Flows at 4pm.

Also note, tomorrow afternoon The Fed rate decision will be announced. With this major news event looming on the horizon, the market will likely put all directional discovery on hold.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  While the other indices managed to give up most of their gains late yesterday, the NASDAQ held above the MID after having a slow uptrend all day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4357.50.  From here look for a move to test above overnight high 4359.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers hold price below 4350 setting up a move down through overnight low 4330.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4315.50 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong selling pushes down through 4315.50 and sustains trade below it, setting up a move to test the 4300 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buying sustains trade above overnight high 4359.25 setting up a move to test above the Monday high 4370.25. Stretch target is 4400.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are set to open the week gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume*.   Price held the upper half of the Friday range on quiet, two-way trade.

*Volume data will be skewed this week, however, due to some participants staying behind and trading the March contact while most move forward to June.

On the economic calendar today we have a 3- and 6-month T-Bill auction at 11:30m.

Last week was a slow grind down through Thursday.  Early Thursday we heard from the ECB, who pushed their key borrowing rate down to negative 0.40% while promising additional monetary stimulus.  This jostled the NASDAQ a bit, opening it gap up before heavy selling came in. The heavy selling was ultimately reversed, effectively trapping sellers down in ‘the hole’.

Friday price opened gap up and slowly churned higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4345.75.  From here a move to take out overnight high 4350.75 sets up a test above last week’s high 3453.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight lo 4331.50 and find responsive buyers down at 4315.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong selling pushes price down through 4315.75 to test below the Friday low 4309.  Look for a move down to the 4300 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Levels:
Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range on indecipherable volume.  Volume is split between the March and June contracts because of rollforward.  I will stick with the March contract into the weekend. Price worked higher during the entire session, stalling out just before the weekly high set Monday.

The only economic event today is the Baker Hughs Rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a big normal variation down.  Late into the session it looked like a double distribution trend down, but the strong end of day bounce radically shifted its form.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push down into the overnight inventory and test down to the 4300 century mark before buyers step in and work up though overnight high 4346.50.  From here look for a test above the Monday high 4355 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers gap and go, take out overnight high 4346.50 early on then sustain trade above the Monday high 4355 setting up a big rally to target the 4400 century mark.  Stretch targets are 4407.50, 4415.50, then 4433.25.

Hypo 3 strong selling closes overnight gap down to 4285.25 then takes out overnight low 4282.50.  From here sellers continue lower to target 4267.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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