NASDAQ futures are set to gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price pushed lower for most of the session and briefly tested below yesterday’s low before finding a responsive bid and settling back into balance. At 8:30am Advance Retail Sales came out slightly better than expectations. So far participants have not reacted to the news.
On the economic docket today we have NAHB Housing Market Index and Business Inventories at 10am, a 4-week T-Bill auction at 11:30am, and Net Long-Term TIC Flows at 4pm.
Also note, tomorrow afternoon The Fed rate decision will be announced. With this major news event looming on the horizon, the market will likely put all directional discovery on hold.
Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. While the other indices managed to give up most of their gains late yesterday, the NASDAQ held above the MID after having a slow uptrend all day.
Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4357.50. From here look for a move to test above overnight high 4359.25 before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 2 sellers hold price below 4350 setting up a move down through overnight low 4330. Look for responsive buyers down at 4315.50 and two way trade ensues.
Hypo 3 strong selling pushes down through 4315.50 and sustains trade below it, setting up a move to test the 4300 century mark before two way trade ensues.
Hypo 4 strong buying sustains trade above overnight high 4359.25 setting up a move to test above the Monday high 4370.25. Stretch target is 4400.
Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:
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