NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal volume on slightly elevated range.  Price was balanced until about 3am when a half-hour’s worth of selling came into the market.

On the economic calendar today we have University of Michigan’s preliminary June reading of Confidence.  At 1pm Baker Hughes will report how many rigs they’ve counted, and at 2pm they will release a Monthly Budget Statement.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Price opened gap down, below Wednesday’s range, and worked higher off the open.  Then just before lunch sellers came in and pushed the market range extension down.  Just below 4500 a responsive bid stepped in and two way trade ensued (see hypo 2).

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to make a hard push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4511.75.  Look for responsive sellers right around here and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers push a half gap, stalling out just below the 4500 century mark.  Sellers then work lower to take out overnight low 4476.25 and find responsive buyers around 4470.75.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go down, take out 4470.75 early on then find a responsive bid around 4465 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 full-on liquidation. Hard push down off the open then sustained trade below 4465 setting up a push down to 4420.75.

NOTE: All levels quoted above and shown below on Market Profile are for the June’16 contract despite most activity rolling forward to the September contract.

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Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price slowly worked lower overnight, pushing the market down just below the lower bounds of value.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data came out better than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have Household Change in Net Worth at 12pm and a 30-Year Bond Reopening auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal day.  A bid sell push early in the session gave us a wide initial balance that would mark the day’s range through the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a flush off the open.  Sellers are aggressive in pushing the market lower, trading down to 4470.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers push into the soft-handed overnight inventory but stall ahead of the open gap, finding sellers up at 4515.  From there the market works lower to take out overnight low 4502, finding responsive buyers just below the 4500 century mark and settling into two-way trade.

Hypo 3 buyers push a full gap fill up to 4518.75 then take out overnight high 4522.50.  Look for a move up to 4529 before two way trade ensues.

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Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are set to come into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower last night and found a firm bid on the low-end of our current value.  The market then worked back up and settled into yesterday’s midpoint.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications data came in stronger than expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am and a 10-Year Note reopening auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Bulls struggled to push range extension up after a quiet open and a hard sell rotation came in.  Through lunch the market steadily climbed higher, printing a weak high at 4532 before traversing the entire daily range again and closing near the session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to squeeze higher off the open.  Look for a move up to target 4531 before finding responsive sellers and settling into two way trade.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4514.75.  From here they continue lower to take out overnight low 4505.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4504 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong buyers push up through 4531 and test above the weak high 4532 setting up a move to target 4537.  Stretch targets are 4544, 4546.50, and 4555.25.

Hypo 4 sellers sustain trade below 4504 triggering a liquidation down to 4470.75.

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Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are set to open gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher for most of the session, finding sellers just ahead of the key MCVPOC at 4546.50.  That was around 6am, and since then the futures have been pushing lower.

On the economic calendar today we have a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, a 3-year note auction at 1pm, and Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  After coming into the week gap up, sellers were unable to fill the gap.  Instead initiative buyers came in and worked price higher during the morning, pushing the market range extension (RE) up before lunchtime and Fed Chair Yellen’s talk in Philadelphia.  During her speaking the market traversed its entire range and went RE down briefly.  A sharp responsive bid stepped in and we formed an excess low.  The market then traversed the entire range again to make a new high on the day before ultimately settling near the daily mid.

Quite the OTF battle.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4525.  Look for buyers here who test up to 4540.  Sellers are here, ahead of overnight high and begin working price lower, down through overnight low 4520.50.  Look for a move down to 4513.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers close overnight gap down to 4525 then take out overnight low 4520.50.  From here a move down to 4513.25.  Look for responsive buyers up at 4506.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers push up off the open, take out overnight high 4545.50 setting up a move through MCVPOC 4546.50.  Look for sellers to try and defend up at 4549.75.  Stretch target is 4555.25.

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Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the second week of June gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price managed to exceed last Friday’s high briefly before settling into two-way, balanced trade.

Today is arguably the most important day of the week for economic events.  Kicking it off, we have a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am.  Then, during NYC lunch, at 12:30pm Fed Chair Yellen is set to speak in Philadelphia.

Last week price traded sideways with a slight upward drift.  The action seemed choppy at times but overall was methodical and balanced.  On Friday we printed a normal day, which is anything but normal, occurring less than 20% of the time and often at-or-near inflection points.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4509.50.  Look for responsive buyers ahead of overnight low 4504 then a move up to take out overnight high 4524.75.  Buyers target the open gap up at 4532 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work the gap fill down to 4509.50 then take out overnight low 4504.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4497.75 then two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers gap-and-go, take out overnight high 4524.75 early on then close the open gap up at 4532.  Buyers sustain price up here, outside of balance, setting up a move to target the MCVPOC up at 4546.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong selling down through 4497.75 sets up a test of Friday’s low 4478.75.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4470.75 then two way trade to ensue.

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Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Pardon this morning’s delayed release, I was in an NFP trade.  If you want to see what was driving my trading decisions live, check me out on Snapchat: VCali

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an abnormally stable overnight session pre-NFP.  After Non-farm payroll the session normalized, printing a range and volume within the statistical norm [67%].  Price managed to exceed swing high overnight before coming into balance within our current micro structure.

Also on the economic docket today we have ISM Manufacturing and Durable Goods at 10am, also the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. Sellers made a hard move lower off the open that found a strong responsive bid.  The rest of the session was spent trading higher with price briefly making new swing high right at the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the NFP sellers and close the gap up to 4532.  From here we test overnight high 4538.75 then target 4546.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers push down through overnight low triggering a move down to 4500 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers take out overnight low then stall out setting up a move up to 4530 before two way trade ensues.

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Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held range during Globex on balanced trade, suggesting little has changed since yesterday morning.  At 8:15ma ADP Employment data came out slightly worse than expected and at 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data was mixed.

Neither of these employments statistics managed to move the market which appears to be waiting to hear tomorrow morning’s Non-farm payroll lead before breaking the current balance.

Also on the economic docket today we have crude oil inventory at 11am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The market drove higher early on then buyers held session mid through the closing bell.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4521.50.  Buyers then continue higher and take out overnight high 4526.75 setting up a move to test above the Wednesday high 4531.  Look for responsive sellers at 4535.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers take out overnight low 4508.25.  Responsive buyers step in ahead of 4500 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers close gap up to 4521.50, take out overnight high 4526.75 then sustain trade above 4535.50 setting up a move to target 4546.25 before two way trade ensues.

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Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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The price of oil is flat relative to yesterday but the last few sessions have been anything but calm as investors anticipate the outcome of the upcoming OPEC meeting.

Some chatter from oil nations is hitting the wires this morning.

1. Iran's Oil Minister Says Oil Production Ceiling Without Quotas is Meaningless;  
Says OPEC Can Control Nothing Without Country Quotas; Says Iran's quota should be 
14.5% of OPEC output. 

2. Qatar's Energy Minister Says Oil Market is Positive, Heading in Right Direction  
of Balance; Says Need Oil Above $50/bbl to Encourage Investment 

3. Saudi Energy Minister Says Oil Market Rebalancing; Says Wants Long-Term Market  
Stability; Says No One Can Determine Equilibrium Price 

4. Angola Oil Minister Says $60/bbl is Good Price, $80/bbl is Better

5. Kuwait's Acting Oil Minister Says $50-$60/bbl is Appropriate Price 

6. Venezuela's Oil Minister Says OPEC Agreement Could be Extended to Non-OPEC  
Countries; Says hoping for $60-$70/bbl oil.

Their commentary may seem meaningless since the price of oil will ultimately be determined by U.S. open markets.  But if you trade a macro product like oil you need to have this information.

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NASDAQ futures are set to start the month of June out gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price managed to trade up above yesterday’s high before settling into balanced trade.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications came out below expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending at 10am, a 4-week T-Bill auction at 11:30am, and the Fed Beige Book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  After price briefly went range extension up late in the morning sellers stepped in and traversed the entire range.  Responsive buyers defended ahead of last Friday’s low and a strong ramp took hold, higher, near the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4525.25.  From here look for buyers to continue higher to take out overnight high 4537.50.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4546.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work lower early on, take out overnight low 4508.25.  Look for a move down to 4497.75 before two way trade ensues.

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Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Soon after the 10am Consumer Confidence read came through sellers entered the market and took out overnight low.  The May reading of Consumer Confidence was well below expectations:

May US consumer confidence 92.6 vs 96.3 expected

The data should come as little surprise after reports earlier this month of U.S. households using less debt and becoming more thrifty.

See also – America Is Rich Again; Credit Card Utilization Drops To Record Low

NASDAQ futures are holding the upper bounds of lower value heading into the afternoon.  However the longer we trade inside the value area, the more likely we explore the lower bounds.

Overall markets are moving slow and orderly heading into month-end.

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