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Sellers Emerge As We Wrap Up The Week

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower during the entire globex session, pressing to a new weekly low and deep into last Friday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have New Home Sales and the final February reading of Confidence from the University of Michigan at 10am, then the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  After a morning spike to new all-time highs, sellers swiftly entered the market and reversed all of the week’s gains.  The move was faded by responsive buyers who stepped in near the value high from last Friday.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and try to regain the Thursday range.  Look for them to succeed at reclaiming 5310.75 setting up a move to target 5320.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work lower, down to 5290.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers work a gap fill up to 5333 then take out overnight high 5334.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 liquidation.  Sellers sustain trade below 5290 setting up a move to target 5278.50 then 5270.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ Higher: Slow and Steady

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a small gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked up beyond all-time highs overnight and is sustaining the gains as we head into the open.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims came in mixed.

Also on the economic docket today we have House Price Purchase index at 9am, crude oil inventories at 11am, and a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  An early move lower could not take out the Tuesday low and we began working higher, eventually extending to a new all-time high in a very mild manner.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5350.75.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5346.75. Look for buyers down around 5341 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through 5358.25 and sustain trade above it, setting up a rally into open air.  No stretch targets available.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers work the weekly gap fill down to 5325.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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The Highs Are Weak Heading into Fed Minutes Wednesday

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held Tuesday range overnight but also managed to form a double/weak high at 5353.75.  At 7am MBA Mortgage data was released.

Also on the economic docket today we have Existing Home sales at 10am, the US Treasury is auctioning off $13B worth of 2-year floating rate notes, then at 1pm they’ll auction $34B worth of 5-year notes.

At 2pm the FOMC Minutes will be released from the February 1st meeting.  Traders down at the CME are currently pricing in a 17.7% chance of a rate hike when the Fed next meets on March 15th.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The gap down to start the holiday shortened week was greeted with buying.  Buyers pressed to new all-time highs before price retraced down through the daily mid.  We churned through the NYC lunch then ramped higher at end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for price to work up through overnight high/weak high 5353.75 to tag measured move target 5358.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5337.25 and tag 5333 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down and close the weekly gap down at 5325.25.  Look for buyers just below at 5322.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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President’s Day Rally Extends into First Official Trading Day of Week

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the progress made during Globex on Monday which means we are coming into the first real trading day of the week gap up.

The economic calendar is interesting today.  At 9:45am we’ll hear from Markit and their reading of Manufacturing and Service PMI.  Then, at 11:30am lots of short duration debt is being auctioned off.  The 4-week, 3-month, and 6-month T-bills will be auctioned by the US Treasury—$34B, $28B, and $35B respectively.  Then at 1pm a 2-year Note auction.  There’s some Fed speak today, but not from anyone important.

Last week US markets worked higher for the second consecutive strong week.  Nearly uninterrupted, see below:

On Friday, the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up.  Price opened gap down and the morning featured a buying drive.  Then buying continued all day long, right up to the end of the week.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and take out overnight low 5331.75.  From here look for a move to close the weekly gap down at 5325.25.  Look for buyers down at 5322.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers press off the open, take out overnight high 5341.50 then probe above President’s Day high 5345.50 and into open air briefly before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 rally continues, stretch target up at 5358.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ Lower Heading into Friday

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price took out the Thursday low briefly before recovering and settling into two-way trade.

The economic calendar is light as we wrap up the week.  At 10am Leading Indicators data is out, and at 1pm the Baker Hughes rig count.  There are no other economic events.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  After an early spike took prices to new highs, sellers made two hard rotations lower before we marked time for the rest of the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5301.  From here we take out overnight high 5303.25.  Look for sellers up at 5308.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5286.75 and continue lower, down to 5278.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down to 5270 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

*REVISION: This post originally stated that the Snapchat IPO was today, February 17th.  It has since been updated.

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Trump Stock Market Rally Continues; Day After Trend Day Context Applies

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price made new all-time highs before settling into two-way trade along the unchanged line.  At 8:30am Housing Starts data were below expectations, Building Permits above expectations, Initial/Continuing jobless claims data worse than expected, and Philadelphia Fed data was much better than expected.

The only other economic event on the docket today is a 30-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend up.  Steady buying all day from open-to-close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to take out overnight high 5313.50 and continue exploring higher prices—open air.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5304.50.  Look for buyers down at 5295.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press a move down to 5279 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Wave of Selling Hits NASDAQ after Making New Highs Overnight

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked to new all-time highs overnight before retracing much of the gains.  Then a second wave of selling came into the market just after 8am.  At 8:30am Consumer Price Index data came out in-line with expectations and Advance Retail Sales data was better than expected.

Beware Janet Yellen’s Semi-annual Testimony to the House of Representatives, which begins at 10am.  We also have crude oil inventories at 10:30am and Long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  After opening gap down sellers made a move to take out the Monday low but stalled out.  Then, as Yellen was taking questions from the Senate Banking Committee, prices began to rise, pressing up through the entire daily range.  The rally accelerated into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5276.  Look for sellers up at 5278.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 strong buyers close overnight gap 5276 then sustain trade above 5279 setting up a move through overnight high 5285.  Continue exploring open air above.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 5265.25 and find buyers just below at 5264 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 selling liquidation triggered by sustaining trade below 5263.25, sending price down to close the gap at 5227.  Stretch target is 5251.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Investors Continue To Love The NASDAQ; All-time Highs Holding Going into Valentine’s Day

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held above the Monday midpoint and inside Monday’s range overnight on balanced trade.

On the economic calendar, beware Janet Yellen speaking to the Senate Banking Committee at 10am.  We also have a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The week began with a gap up and buyers were eager to drive price higher off of it.  Price worked higher, up through open air, tagging the Exodus Strategy Session measured move target before finding some responsive selling and settling into two-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 5261 and continue to probe higher, up through Monday high 5261.50.  No upside targets exist.

Hypo 2 sellers push down through overnight low 5252.25 and work lower to 5234.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers close the weekly gap down to 5227 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Option Expiration Week Begins With New Highs

NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, mostly after 6:30am.  Before then it was balanced.

The economic calendar is light to start the week–only a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction on the docket, both at 11:30am.

US markets worked higher last week, across the board.  Here is the performance of each major index last week:

02122017_IndexPerf

Last Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  Price opened gap up, just above the Thursday high.  Sellers worked down into the the gap, closed it, revealed buyers and we spent the rest of the day auctioning higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to probe higher into open air.  Look for sellers up at 5261.50 if we tag it.

Hypo 2 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5227.  This sets up a move to take out overnight low 5226.75.  Look for buyers just below at 5224.75.

Hypo 3 strong selling moves in, sustains trade below 5223.25 setting up a move to target 5210.

Levels:

02132017_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

02132017_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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Onward and Upward: NASDAQ Continues To Stroll Higher

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, achieving new highs before settling into two-way trade.

The economic calendar is light as we wrap up the week.  At 10am we have U of Michigan Confidence, at 1pm the Baker Hughes rig count, and at 2pm a Monthly Budget Statement.

Yesterday we printed another double distribution trend up.  After opening flat a strong buyer drove the market higher in the morning and buyers continued bidding the market, turning initiative in the afternoon and pressing value higher before two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5212.  From here we take out overnight low 5209.25.  Look for buyers down at 5194 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through overnight high 5227.25 and continue exploring higher prices.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down through 5194 and sustain trade below it setting up a move to target the open gap at 5191.25 then 5189.25.  Stretch target is 5175.75.

Levels:

02102017_NQ_MP

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

02102017_NQ_VPgapsMeasuredMoves

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