Sunday, December 11, 2016
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NASDAQ Making A Run on The Highs; Seeks To Join in All The Index Games

rudy

Note: Yesterday, December 8th active traders rolled forward to trading the March 2017 futures contract.  For the sake of the IndexModel, today’s price levels will be reported using the December /NQ contract.

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked up to new weekly highs overnight, and as we approach U.S. open prices are holding above Thursday’s high.

On the economic docket today we have the preliminary reading of U. of Michigan confidence.  With futures rolling over, this preliminary reading can be used to jostle the market.  Be aware of this 10am announcement.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The gap up was quickly sold to fill down to Wednesday’s close before a bidder stepped in.  The rest of the session was balanced but sellers did manage to extend the range lower, albeit briefly, toward the end of the day.  Prices quickly recovered during the Ramp Capital hour.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to squeeze higher, up through 4881 triggering a move up to 4895.  We are likely to settle into two way trade from here.

Hypo 2 full-on move for the highs, sustain trade above 4895 and a move above 4907 to make new highs.  Look for some traffic around 4900.

Hypo 3 sellers push down to 4864.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 a liquidation triggers, down through overnight low 4852.50.  Look for buyers down at 4847.25.

Levels:

12092016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

12092016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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Surprise Taper from European Central Bank Causes Small Ripples in The NASDAQ

seentitbetter

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price balanced overnight and held the upper quadrant of Wednesday’s trend up.  At 7:45am the ECB announced a tapering of their bond purchases to €60 billion.  The news sent the NASDAQ into a 10-point gyration best resembling a ping pong match (no Comet).

At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data was slightly better than expected.

There are no other economic events on the docket today.

Yesterday the NASDAQ formed a trend up.  A morning attempt lower, testing just below the Tuesday low, revealed a strong responsive bid.  Buyers then became initiative for the rest of the session working up and above the open gap left behind at the end of November.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a move up through overnight high 4854.  Sellers defend just above at 4857.25 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work up to 4871.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 seller push down through overnight low 4836 triggering and test down to 4827.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong selling pushes down to 4800 then 4789.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

12082016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

12082016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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NASDAQ Balanced Heading into Midweek Trade

traders-crowd

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the Tuesday range overnight and the main feature of the session is a sell rotation that began around 5am and continues as we approach opening bell.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications came in at -0.7%.  Better than last week.

Also on the economic docket today we have JOLTS Job Openings at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, and Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Price was choppy and balanced.  In the morning we exceeded the Monday high by a few ticks before falling back into range.  Then just before lunch we went range extension down by a tick before pushing back into range.  Overall it appears the market is in balance and waiting for new information before exploring new prices.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4787.75.  Sellers remain persistent and defend around the Tuesday close 4787.75 and then work down through overnight low 4775.75 setting up a move to target 4752.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers close gap up to 4787.75 then take out overnight high 4795.25 triggering a rally up to the open gap at 4821.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower, tag 4752.75 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong sellers push down through 4750 and sustain trade below it triggering a liquidation down to the gap at 4738.25.

Levels:

12072016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

12072016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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NASDAQ Extends Rally into Tuesday

futures-trader-hightech

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held above the Monday midpoint before working toward Monday’s high as we approach the open.  At 8:30am Trade Balance data was worse than expected.  The data yielded no market reaction.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Factory and Durable Goods Orders at 10am followed by both a 4- and 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  We started the week gap up and despite a hard sell to start the session, buyers managed to reject a move back into last Friday’s range.  Instead we drove higher, deep into the move made last Thursday (trend day) before settling into two-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4780.75.  Look for a move down through overnight low 4772.75 then responsive buyers down at 4752.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through Monday high 4795.75 triggering a rally up to the open gap at 4821.50.  Look for sellers up at 4826.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong sellers work down through 4750 triggering a liquidation down to the weekly gap at 4738.25.

Levels:

12062016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

12062016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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NASDAQ Launches Higher on Extreme Overnight Session

A police officer fires tear gas during clashes in Rome, Tuesday, Dec. 14, 2010. Outside parliament, thousands of demonstrators marched, smashed shop windows, destroyed bank ATMs and set at least three vehicles on fire. At one point they even entered a bank, prompting staffers to try to barricade themselves inside. Police fired tear gas as the protesters neared Berlusconi's residence. Premier Silvio Berlusconi won back-to-back votes of confidence in the Italian parliament Tuesday to survive one of the toughest tests of his political life. But he was left with a razor-thin majority that will make it hard for him to govern effectively. (AP Photo/Pier Paolo Cito)

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on extreme range.  Price worked down into the 11/14 range before finding a strong responsive bid and trading up into last Thursday’s trend down.

The economic agenda is light to start the first full week of December.  At 11:30am we have a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction.

Last week the NASDAQ was under pressure while the Dow worked higher:12042016_indexperf

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal day.  Price poked just below the Thursday low before revealing a strong responsive bidder.  However, said buyers were unable to press a range extension ahead of the weekend.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to reject a move back into Friday’s high 4759 which sets up a move to take out overnight high 4776.75 to target 4786.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers regain Friday range and close the gap down to 4736.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

12052016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

12052016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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Strong Non-farm Payroll Data Emboldens Investors: They Bought The Dip

hold-mel

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range.  Price worked down through the Thursday low before finding a bid ahead of the 11/14 open gap.  At 8:30am Non-farm payroll data was stronger than expected:

USA Unemployment Rate for Nov 4.60% vs 4.90% Est; Prior 4.90%
USA Non-farm Payrolls for Nov 178.0K vs 175.0K Est; Prior 161.0K

Third reaction yielded a buy signal off the data.

The only other economic event today is Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend down.  Price opened gap down and drove lower.  The selling lasted all session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 4707.25 to target the open gap at 4695.25.  Look for buyers down at 4694.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 4738.50 and trade up to 4760 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers reverse Thursday, leaving a globex swing low behind, trade all the way up to the Wednesday gap 4808.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

12022016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

120232016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

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December Trading Is Underway; Here’s Everything You Need To Know About The NASDAQ

santarobot

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday, December 1st flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price took out the Wednesday low and tagged the composite VPOC before settling into balance.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data were out but investors are more keen on tomorrow morning’s Nonfarm payroll reading.

Also on the economic docket today we have ISM Manufacturing at 10am.

According to Exodus December is historically a positive month for the NASDAQ (per the QQQ ETF) however the average return of +0.92% includes 10 years of down months and only 7 years where it went higher.  Likely skewing the data is 1999 when the QQQ returned 24.32% in full, dot com bubble glory.

qqq-december-seasonality-2016

Yesterday we printed a trend down.  After opening slight gap up sellers pressed hard into the tape early on and continued selling throughout the afternoon.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 4805 to tag the 4800 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong selling works down to 4768.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers press up through overnight high 4827.50 to target 4829.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers work up into the Wednesday trend down, trading up to the midpoint around 4852.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

12012016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

120132016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

Comments »

First Methodical Sale of the NASDAQ Since Election

einhorn

There was a hard sell two days after Trump won President but it was a knee-jerk, algorithmic type move.  Otherwise we’ve rallied.

However, in what has become a popular pastime in American market lore, exceeding the most recent swing high introduced a strong seller.  This is the case again Wednesday on the NASDAQ exchange.

It happened inside my two favorite Fibonacci extensions, which I use to gauge whether a breakout is real or just a stop hunter:

fibex-nas-nov16

The selling that came in today was methodical, resting then cutting through local levels*.  It was initiative in nature, meaning the higher time frame continued to engage the NASDAQ throughout the day via their sell orders.

*market profile levels on any morning report are examples of local levels

Meanwhile, over at the Dow Jones, sellers could not regain Tuesday’s range.  Also the Russell is at its Exodus Strategy Session bracket low–a demarcation line that grades my algo and also draws a proverbial do or die for whether a week ends up being range-bound or something bigger.

If these sort of conversations and observations seem logical to you, and an objective way to assess and engage the markets, it may make sense for you to sign up for Option Addict’s upcoming bootcamp.  He’s proficient in these matters and has a knack for presenting them in understandable ways and you can ask him whatever you want.

I sort of just do, ya feel?

The resilience is coming from the S&P and Dow while our riskier Russell and NASDAQ potentially lead lower.

First of the month action could be fast to the downside.  If it does accelerate, look for any Non-farm payroll data to be used to exacerbate the action.  Same goes if we rally hard into NFP, look for the Friday morning data to stoke the rally.

If we are flatish heading into the data–then use it to gauge direction into Friday and the weekend and may GOD HAVE MERCY ON YOUR SOUL.

NASDAQ CLOSES OUT WEDNESDAY ON THE LOWS…

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The Turkey Rally Continues: Hump Day NASDAQ Roundup

geico-camel-on-hump-day-large-7

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held above the Tuesday midpoint on balanced trade.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came out well below last week’s reading.  Then at 8:15am ADP Employmenty data was stronger than expected, and at 8:30am Personal Consumption Expenditure data was inline with expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, and Fed Beige Book at 2pm.

Option Addict noted a longer-term technical pattern that he perceives as bullish via past observation.  Click here to check it out!

Yesterday we formed a double distribution trend up before falling back down to the lower distribution by market close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a more to take out overnight high 4885.50and continue higher to 4891 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong buyers push up through Tuesday high 4897.75 to target the 4900 century mark.  Stretch targets are 4917.75 and 4931.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight low 4868.25 and target 4866.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 stronger sellers work down to 4856.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

11302016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

113032016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

Comments »

NASDAQ Accepting Presidential Rally; Settling into Highs Nicely

protestsss

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held Monday range on balanced trade.  At 8:30am GDP data were released, better-than-expected across the board, knocking the market about 4 points lower.

Also on the economic docket today we have Consumer Confidence at 10am and a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The range extension up was met by strong responsive selling; the sellers were strong enough to print an excess high in the morning and defend their territory again in the afternoon (rather aggressively, like emotional ape).  After giving back most of the days’ progress, the NASDAQ formed a little ramp higher into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 4872.25 and push into the emotional seller by testing above Monday high 4879.75 and targeting the open gap at 4888 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 4856.25 and target 4839.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers trigger a liquidation down to 4811.50.

Levels:

11292016_nq_mp

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

112932016_nq_vpgapsmeasuredmoves

Comments »