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Extreme Trade Presses NASDAQ To New June Low Before Finding Bidders

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume.  Price continued lower overnight trading down to prices unseen since May 18th before discovering responsive buyers.  At 8:30am advance goods trade balance and wholesale inventories data were both better than expected.

Also on the economic agenda today we have pending home sales at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 2-year floating rate note auction at 11:30am, and a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend down.  The day began with a gap down below the Monday range.  Sellers sold into the gap down, and after a morning of two-way trade sellers continued pressing the market lower in a trend-like manner.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press up through overnight high 5698.50 and trade up to 5712.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5677.5 then continue lower, but stall out around 5650 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers work down through overnight low 5632 and trade down to 5615.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ Was Up, Now It Is Down: Here’s The Tuesday Trading Plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, pressing down into last Wednesday’s range before settling into balance.  At 9am the Case-Shiller Composite-2o data came out below expectations.

Also on the economic agenda today we have Consumer Confidence at 10am, a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, a 5-year Note auction at 1pm. Janet Yellen is also speaking in London, England at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  After opening the week with a strong gap up and early drive higher, responsive sellers stepped in and sold the entire gap.  Then they continued selling, ultimately stalling out ahead of last Friday’s low before balanced trade kicked in.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5779.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 5784 to tag the naked VPOC at 5790 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5743.75 and continue lower, closing the gap down at 5733.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trigger a liquidation down to 5712 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Record Highs in Range Heading into Monday

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher during the Sunday evening-to-Monday morning extended trade after spending 10 minutes trading lower.  The other twelve hours and fifty minutes were spent trading higher.  At 8:30am Durable Goods data was well below expectations.

No reaction.

Also on the economic docket today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am and a 2-year Note auction at 1pm.

The economic calendar is light all week.  It is summertime, after all.

Last week began with an impressive gap up—a much higher magnitude gap up than today’s—and then a drive higher at the open.  This set the tone for the entire week.  The tone was, “This is summer. Go live a little. We’ve got this.”  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend up.  The day began with a gap lower.  Sellers made an early probe below Thursday’s low which found a responsive bid.  We spent the rest of the day trading higher, ultimately closing at the weekly high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, up to 5876 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work even higher, up to 5888.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5812.75.  Then they continue lower, down to 5791.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Summertime: NASDAQ Flat

NASDAQ futures are heading into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price held Thursday’s range overnight in a non-eventful extended trading session.

The economic calendar is super light—manufacturing/service/composite PMI data is out at 9:45am then new home sales at 10am.

Get in your car and drive to a national forest

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Day began with a slight gap down that was sold into.  After poking the naked volume point-of-control at 5771 the buyers again reasserted their dominance, responding to the discounted prices with vigor.  This led to markets rallying a bit but stalling ahead of the week’s high-mark, which was established around 2am on Thursday.  Sellers prattled onto the tape late in the day.

Heading into Friday my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 5775 and continue lower, down to 5757.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through overnight high 5800.50 and probe the weekly high 5814.50.  Look for sellers up at 5823 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers manage to sustain trade below 5755.50 setting up a move to close the open gap at 5733.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ Trades into Key Fibonacci Level Overnight; Finds Sellers

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher, stalling out and finding responsive sellers just ahead of 5823.

5823 is the price that marks where the 0.68% retracement is of the selling that began June 9th and concluded June 12th.  It is the ‘golden ratio’ discovered by Italian mathematician and all-around-good-guy Leonardo Pisano Bigollo aka Fibonacci.

Since nearly tagging the level, the NASDAQ sold off for 34 points then found a bid stabilized into two-way trade just below 5800.

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The most important thing to keep in mind regarding this ratio is that is provides a pivot.  Should sellers fail to maintain prices below 5823, then the June hissy fit was another short-lived dip.  If instead sellers defend the zone, we may be in for another leg lower.

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At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out below expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Housing Price Index at 9am, Leading Indicators at 10am, and a 30-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The day began with a small gap up—a small gap up sellers should have easily closed, but they didn’t.  This sent price racing higher.  After a lunchtime lull (common place in the summertime and reason in-itself to avoid day trading most of the day) we saw a second leg higher to end the day, putting us at fresh weekly highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press lower, down through overnight low 5780.75 setting up a move to target 5757.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 5814.50 and probe then Fibonacci level at 5823.  They find sellers and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers close the gap down to 5733.50 then continue lower, down to 5712.50 before two way trade.

Hypo 4 pole climb.  Buyers sustain trade above the fib level at 5823 triggering a fast move higher to 5876.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Perpetual Bull Reasserts Dominance: NASDAQ Regain Lost Ground Overnight

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, reversing much of the Monday morning gap higher.  Then buyers aggressively defended an attempt back into last Friday’s range, sending the index spiraling higher.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came out lower than last week.

Also on the docket today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am. The energy markets have been volatile alongside the drought-stricken middle east, so investors are likely to pay closer attention to the report.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  Price briefly went range extension up Tuesday morning after beginning the day with a two-way auction.  Then, the entire range was reversed, pushing the index neutral.  From then onward, and despite some attempts higher from the buyers, the daily midpoint was a wall.  We closed near session low, earning the neutral extreme designation.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5733.50.  However, an attempt down through Tuesday low 5729 is rejected by buyers, sending up up through overnight high 5741.50.  Look for sellers up at 5744.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 5741.50 and sustain trade above 5744.50 setting up a move to target 5758.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers press down through overnight low 5699 and target the weekly gap left open down at 5684.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Summertime: NASDAQ Drifts into Tuesday Flat

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, briefly poking above the Monday high before settling into two-way trade.

The economic calendar is light all week.  Today is no exception.  The U.S. Treasury is auctioning off 52-week and 4-week bills at 11:30am.  There are no other economic events.  Fed’s Robert Kaplan will speak at 3pm, but investors are likely to ignore him.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The week began with a strong pro gap and buyers drove higher off the open.  Buyers then became initiative later in the day, springing higher only to be knocked back by sellers twice.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a move higher, up to 5800 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down to 5750 before two way trade.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers liquidate down to 5717.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers sustain trade above 5800, triggering a pole climb up to 5822.75.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ Flat: The June Contract Is Nearly Expired

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked up through the Thursday high, briefly overnight before settling into balanced trade.  At 8:30am Housing Starts and Building Permits data were below expectations.

Also on the agenda today we have the June preliminary reading of Confidence out of the University of Michigan.  There are no other major economic events.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down and sellers working down through the Monday low.  Just a touch below Monday’s low buyers stepped in.  We then spent the rest of the day trading higher.  As a result, it appears we have failed auctions on both sides of the tape now.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 5720 and close the Wednesday gap up at 5733 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers press up to 5767.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 5695.75 and buyers are found just below at 5681.50.

Hypo 4 stronger sellers send trade down to 5656.50 before two way trade ensues.

*Note: all levels are in reference to the June contract despite all active trading moving to the September contract.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ Back To Week’s Lows During Extreme Overnight Trade

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Also, volume appears to have mostly shifted to the September futures contract.  Price worked lower most of the night, finding a bid just ahead of the Monday low.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims came out mixed.

Also on the economic calendar today we have NAHB Housing market index at 10am and Long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap up that was sold early morning.  We then spend the rest of the day in a tight auction before the FOMC rate decision.  After the feds raised interest rates, third reaction analysis yielded the sell signal.  Price sold off until the end of the day, when a strong snap back rally occurred.

Said ‘snap back’ has been erased during extended trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to attempt a move back into the Wednesday range.  Look for sellers to reject a move back up through 5700, leading to a move down through overnight low 5651.25 that continues lower, down to the open gap at 5629.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers regain 5700 and continue higher, up to 5720, then up through overnight high 5726.50.  Look for buyers just above at 5731.50 before two-way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down to 5616 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Pole Climb Underway Ahead of of The Fed

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight and has been nudging up into the ‘pole climb’ area on market profile.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came out positive but lower than last week.  At 8:30am Consumer Price Index and Advance Retail Sales both came out below expectations.

Also on the economic agenda today we have Business Inventories at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, and most importantly an FOMC rate decision at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  Day began with a gap up, sellers worked into overnight inventory and closed the gap.  An excess low formed, and we spent the rest of the day bidding higher, ultimately traversing the entire day’s range and closing near session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go higher, up to 5800 before we pause ahead of the FOMC decision.

Hypo 2 sellers work into overnight inventory and close gap down to 5759.50 then continue down though overnight low 5739.50. Look for buyers down at 5728.75 ahead of the FOMC decision.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press to 5703 before FOMC.

Use third reaction analysis after the FOMC decision to determine direction into the afternoon and the rest of the week.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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