NASDAQ futures are set to come into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme [3rd sigma] range on normal volume.  Buyers saw price thrust higher last night then come into balance below Monday session high.  At 8:30am USA GDP came out slightly better than expected.

USA GDP (QoQ) for Q1 1.10% vs 1.00% Est; Prior 0.80% $SPY $QQQ $IWM $DIA

— Raul (@IndexModel) June 28, 2016

Also on the economic docket today we have the Case-Shiller Home Price Index at 9am and Consumer Confidence at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Strong selling off the open pushed price down through the week’s ATR measured move band and continued cascading lower, down to an micro-composite volume point-of-control [MCVPOC] printed back in early February at 4171 [see yesterday’s hypo 3].  From here two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a short squeeze higher.  Look for a test above Monday session high 4243.75.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4248 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and test down to 4200 before responsive buyers step in, work us up through overnight high 4234.25.  Look for sellers up at 4241.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong sellers work down through 4200 and work a full gap fill down to 4178.75.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4715.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 4 full-on rally up through 4248 to target a weekly gap fill up to 4268.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight to find a responsive bid around prices last seen in late-February.  From there the market worked higher, attempting a move back into last Friday’s range.  This was met with selling which ultimately pushed the market down near Globex session low before we settled into two-way trade.  At 8:30am Advance Good Trade Balance came out worst than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have Markit Service/Composite PMI at 9:45am and a 3- and 6-Month T-Bill auction at 11:30am.

Last week started out with a strong gap up.  The move enticed buyers to initiate trades Monday morning before ultimately reversing near the end of the day.  Overall, we traded water after that until Thursday when the market began working higher with conviction.

Friday opened pro gap down after the Brexit vote.  The Friday morning open featured a strong bounce that pushed price up near the gap zone left behind Monday.  Lots of supply was discovered here and we spent the rest of the session trending lower.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the overnight gap up to 4268.50.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4270 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 seller work lower off the open and take out overnight low 4215 setting up a move to the measured target at 4208.75.  Look for responsive buyers ahead of 4200 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong selling pushes the market below 4200 and sustains trade below it triggering a liquidation move down to 4171 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers close overnight gap 4268.50 then sustain trade above 4270 setting up a move to target 4300.  Stretch target is 4328.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  The Globex session was balanced, holding the range set yesterday during regular trading hours.  At 7am we saw an uptick in MBA Mortgage Applications, the index was negative on the last read [act. 2.9% vs -2.4% prior].

Also on the economic docket today we have House Price Index at 9am and Crude oil inventory data at 10:30am.  Janet Yellen will be on Capitol Hill for a second day, this time testifying to the House Financial Services Committee about monetary policy at 10am.

The BREXIT vote is tomorrow.  The market tipped its hand Sunday night, reacting as emphatically as it did to bookmakers offering better odds the voters will choose to remain part of the EU.  The reaction made it clear the market, overall, is waiting for this uncertainty to settle before choosing direction.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  Price opened gap up, drove higher briefly, went range extension down and closed the overnight gap, then pushed up through the range to go RE up, then settled back on the daily mean.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to make a little push off the open, a squeeze up to MCVPOC at 4425 before sellers come in and work the overnight gap fill down to 4400.75 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4400.75.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4393.75 and two way trade to ensues.

Hypo 3 a rally takes hold, pushes up through 4425 and sustains trade above it, setting up a move to 4442.25 then 4449.25.  Stretch target is open gap at 4458.50 .

Hypo 4 liquidation takes hold, pushes the market down below Monday’s low 4885 and closes the weekly gap down at 4359.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight—initially with a burst of buying just after U.S. cash market close yesterday (which was faded) then by a slow march higher for the remainder of the evening.

Janet Yellen has to testify to the Senate Banking Committee about monetary policy today at 10am.  We have 4- and 52-week T-Bill auctions at 11:30am and a 5-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  The week began with a pro gap up and buyers drove price higher off the open.  Just after the first hour of trade, and rather briefly, the market went range extension up.  Shortly after strong responsive selling came in, first working price down through the daily range then accelerating the liquidation down into the open gap.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and test the 4400 century mark.  Look for buyers here and then a move to take out overnight high 4415.75.  Look for price to continue higher, up to 4429 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers complete a full gap fill down to 4389.50 then take out overnight low 4388.25 setting up a test of Monday’s low 4385.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4374.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers gap-and-go higher, take out overnight high 4415.75 and sustain trade above 4429 setting up a move to target 4442.50 then 4450.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into the week pro gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  The Globex session opened gap up and went into a slow up trend.  Price is already beyond the week’s upside measured move target, currently priced near last Thursday’s high.

See also – The BREMIAN Camp Reigns Glorious; Markets Set To Explode In a Cocaine Cloud on Open

On the economic docket today we have 3- and 6-month T-Bill auctions happening at 11:30am and a 2-year note auction at 1pm.

Last week the NASDAQ worked lower.  There was a flash of upside after the FOMC rate decision that was ultimately faded.  The NASDAQ was the weakest index, however, while the other major indices saw bullish divergences into the end of the week.

Friday the NASDAQ opened gap down and sellers drove lower off the open.  A small rally took hold through lunch but was ultimately faded to end the week.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory a bit.  Look for a move down to test the 4400 century mark.  Look for responsive buyers (responsive relative to the open, initiative relative to last week’s close) to step in at these prices and work us up through overnight high 4420.50.  Look for sellers up at 4424 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go.  Push up through 4424 early on setting up a move to target 4442.50.  Additional upside targets are 4450 then a stretch target of the open gap at 4458.50.

Hypo 3 full gap fill lower.  First sellers have to take out overnight low 4382.75.  Look for buyers to defend down at 4375.25 but ultimately they are overrun as the market continues lower to target gap fill down to 4359.

Look for the bond auctions around 11:30am to sort out any debates occurring at-or-near a major price level and to set the tone for the remainder of the day.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measures moves:

Comments »

NASDASQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher, initially overnight before finding sellers ahead of Wednesday’s high—the same region sellers defended during the initial spike higher post-FOMC rate decision.  Since then we have pushed lower, back down into the upper-quadrant of yesterday’s range.

On the economic docket today we have Housing Starts and Building Permits at 8:30am and Baker Hughes Rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The market opened gap down and sellers drove price lower off the open.  Then, just 1-tick below the 05/23 gap fill a strong responsive bid stepped in.  Just before NYC lunch a massive buy program hit at the NYSE.

THERE IT IS: HUGE NYSE TICK…

Biggest since 5/12 at 2:18pm

We have a big responsive bidder?

— Raul (@IndexModel) June 16, 2016

That pushed the NASDAQ up through the daily mid.  Price then retraced lower one last time before a huge secondary thrust pushed us neutral.  Buyers tacked on an additional ramp higher late in the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4417.  From here they continue working higher to 4422.25 before sellers step in and push down through overnight low 4409.50.  Buyers are just below here and two way trade ensues.  In other words, marking time/chop.

Hypo 2 buyers close overnight gap up to 4417 then set their sights on overnight high 4432.50.  The continue higher to target 4442.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers push down through 4409.50 off the open and go test the 4400 century mark.  Buyers defend and two way trade ensues, perhaps working up to close overnight gap 4417.

Hypo 4 strong selling pushes down through 4400 and sustains trade below it setting up a move to 4389.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower, down through the lows set back on 05/24, a major reference day for the market.  Just below the 05/24 lows, around 3am, buyers showed up and two-way trade ensued.  At 8:30am Core CPI data came out inline [0.20% vs 0.20% est] and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index beat expectations [4.70 vs 1.10 est].

Also on the economic docket today we have NAHB Housing Market Index at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  NASDAQ opened gap up and after a slow opening auction sellers pushed the market range extension down.  Just after 2pm, after the FOMC rate decision, the market spiked to a new session high, putting the day into a neutral print.  After nearly an hour of grinding debate, sellers broke the market lower and close it near session low, thus morphing the neutral profile into a neutral extreme.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4404.75.  Look for sellers to defend this area aggressively and reverse the market.  We then work lower to take out overnight low 4374.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4367.25 and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go, push down through overnight low 4374 early on and then sustain trade below 4367.25 setting up a liquidation down to 4350 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers close overnight gap up to 44047.75 then take out overnight high 4409.  This sets up a move to target 4425.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price was balanced for most of the evening, then began steadily working higher early this morning.  Sellers were found just ahead of Monday’s midpoint and two-way trade ensued.  At 7am MBA mortgage were well below last week’s reading, -2.4% vs 9.3% the prior week.

There are several economic data points due out today, them most important being the 2pm FOMC rate decision.  At 9:15am Industrial/Manufacturing Inventory numbers will drop, at 10:30am crude oil inventories, and at 4pm Long-term TIC Flows.

See Also – Cashin: Markets Are Scared of BREXIT and German Bond Yields

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The market opened gap down and was met with strong responsive buying which took price up to Monday’s value before a strong seller came in and pushed us range extension down.  Bidders stepped in before lunch and two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4418.25.  From here look for price to continue working lower and take out overnight low 4406.25.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4400 and two way trade to ensues ahead of the FOMC minutes.

Hypo 2 buyers step in ahead of 4420.75 and price takes out overnight high 4435.75.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4442.50 and two way trade to ensue ahead of the FOMC minutes.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go higher, push up through 4435.75 adn target 4449.50 then the open gap up at 4458.50 ahead of the FOMC minutes.

Look for the 30 minutes after the Fed to provide market direction into the close of the week.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  The session was balanced, overall, but price continued the trajectory set last Thursday, which is lower.  At 8:30am Advance Retail Sales came out slightly better than expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have Business Inventories at 10am and a 4-week T-Bill auction at 11:30am.  Also, the gravity of tomorrow afternoon’s FOMC rate decision is likely start altering the behavior of the market place—putting price into a wait-and-see range.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down.  We came into the week gap down and buyers made a spirited push off the open.  They struggled to sustain priced inside last Friday’s range, printing several excess highs.  The final blow came just after buyers pushed the market range extension up, by 2 points, then fell back down to daily mid.  Sellers stepped in and pushed us neutral.  After a another return to the daily mean, price pushed lower and closed on session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4418.25.  Look for responsive sellers up near 4430.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers sustain trade above 4420 after closing overnight gap 4418.25 setting up a move to 4450.

Hypo 3 sellers defend ahead of 4418.25 setting up a move to target overnight low 4397.50 and triggering a liquidation down to 4367.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range on elevated volume.  The Globex session started with a gap down and price continued lower until just after midnight.  Price then rallied back up through overnight range but was unable to fill the gap.  Sellers then reemerged and pressed down through the entire range.  Around 8:30am share of Microsoft halted and they announced a cash deal to buy LinkedIn.  Heading into the open the market is on session low.

See Also: Microsoft to Aquire LinkedIn for $26.2 Billion, All Cash

The only events on the economic docket today are the 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week the NASDAQ worked higher than churned sideways through Wednesday, despite the other major indices working higher.  Both Thursday and Friday the market opened gap down.  Friday was balanced until the end of the session when a sharp attempt lower was rejected by responsive buyers.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a shake-out push lower off the open, down to 4421.25 followed by a strong responsive bid higher.  Buyers work up to test last Friday’s low 4438.25.  Look for sellers to reject a move back into Friday’s range and the market to continue to probe lower, down to 4411.

Hypo 2 buyers push into the overnight inventory and regain 4438.25 early on setting up a move to target overnight high 4452.  Buyers then push a full gap fill up to 4458.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers close overnight gap up to 4458.50 early on and sustain trade above 4450, setting up a move to target 4470.

Hypo 4 full-on liquidation, sellers push down through 411 and sustain trade below it setting up a move to the 4400 century mark.  If the century mark does not hold, then we could see a fast move down to 4367.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

 

Comments »