NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, balanced at times and then rallying early this morning.  Overall the action was contained inside of the Monday range and as we approach cash open we are hovering near the Monday high.

The economic calendar features consumer confidence at 10am, a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, and a 2-year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  The day/week began with gap down and drive lower.  An initial responsive bid was overrun by more selling, pressing what looked like a morning liquidation.  We probed new monthly lows, testing prices unseen since August 29th.  Then, near the end of the session we ramped higher, back to the day’s midpoint.

Heading into today my primay expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5877.50.  From here we continue lower, down through overnight low 5862.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers defend around 5883.25 and we press up through overnight high 5904.25.  Look for sellers up at 5912.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers gap-and-go higher, up through 5912.50 to target 5922 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price spiked higher Sunday evening, up above the Friday high before finding a responsive sellers.  We then spent the rest of the evening working lower and as we approach cash open price is accelerating down through last week’s low.

The economic calendar is light all week, and today we have only a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction to be concerned with at 11:30am.

Last week the NASDAQ worked lower while the S&P marked time (sideways) and the Dow and Russell rallied.  Here is the performance of each major index last week:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap down and a brief probe below Thursday’s low before a responsive bid stepped in and drove price higher.  Buyers could not, however, close the overnight gap.  Instead we worked back lower again, eventually going range extension down before two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5934.75.  From here we continue higher, up to close the Thursday gap at 5943.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers gap-and-go lower, down to 5884.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers press up through overnight high 5954.25.  Look for sellers up at 5961.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

 

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range.  Price worked down through the Thursday low overnight before finding a modest bid.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering right around the Thursday low.

The only economic event of note today is the Markit data dump of Manufacturing/Service/Composite PMI data at 9:45am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began with a gap down and drive lower, leaving the open gap behind.  After about an hour of sellers controlling the market and pressing to a new low on the week, responsive bidders stepped in and two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go lower.  Look for sellers to press down through overnight low 5911 and tag the 5900 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers sustain trade above 5919.50 setting up a gap fill up to 5943.75.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 5947.50.  Look for sellers just above at 5948 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down to 5884.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked sideways overnight in balanced trade that held the Wednesday range.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Also on the economic agenda today we have Leading Indicators at 10am and a 10-year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began flat and by late-morning sellers were driving price lower.  Then we slowly drifted back up as investors waited for the Fed’s 2pm rate decision.  After the Fed left their benchmark borrowing rate unchanged at 100-125 basis points sellers again engaged the market—pressing us to new lows for the day.  After one more methodical rotation up, then again down, a strong bid entered the market and we ramped back up to pre-fed announcement levels.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5978.25.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 5982 setting up a move to tag the naked VPOC at 5992.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers press to 6006.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 5963.75 and sustain trade below 5940 setting up a move to target 5919.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked sideways, inside of the Tuesday range during balanced trade.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came out much lower than last week.

Also on the agenda today we have Existing Home sales at 10am, crude oil inventory at 10:30am, and the FOMC rate decision at 2pm.

Consensus among traders is that the Fed will leave their benchmark borrowing rate unchanged at 125 basis points (free money).

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Price made a tiny thrust lower early on but held Monday range.  Then we spent the rest of the day slowly grinding higher, marking time.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press into the overnight inventory and work up through overnight high 5998.25.  We continue higher, up to 6003.75 before two-way trade ensues ahead of the Fed decision.  Use third reaction analysis post-Fed decision to dictate direction into end of day.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5987.75 and continue lower to 5980 before two-way trade ahead of decision.  Third reaction post-Fed for direction into end of day.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers down to 5961.25 before two way trade ahead of Fed.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday sort of flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked sideways overnight in balanced trade inside of the Tuesday range.  At 8:30am we had a dump of housing data that was a touch worse than expected

The only other economic event today is a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Price worked sideways, more-or-less.  Buyers could not extend the initial balance higher after briefly ticking above last Friday’s high—a miniature failed auction.  Therefore we fell back down through range and and extended lower, ultimately holding inside of the Friday range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 5979 then continue lower, down to 5962.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press up to 6037.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down to 5945.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked sideways overnight in balanced trade, holding inside of last Friday’s range.

The economic calendar starts off light this week.  We have the NAHB Housing Market Index at 10am, a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am, and Long-term TIC flows at 4pm.

Last week began with a major gap up across the board and we spent the rest of the week slowly trend up.

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation up.  After a brief probe of the Thursday low a strong responsive bid stepped in.  Buyers then became initiative and pressed us to new record intra-day highs before we settled into two way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 5994.50.  Buyers step in here and we work up through overnight high 6011.75.  This set up a rally to 6037.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 5990.25 and continue lower, down to 5974.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 tight chop, centered around 6000 and ranging from about 6010-to-5987.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range.  Price was balanced overnight, working inside of the Thursday range.

The only economic event scheduled for today is Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a slight gap up, and once it was filled we spent the rest of the day slowly auctioning higher, working the 9/1 gap fill before settling into two-way trade.

Note: all active trading has moved to the December contract, but the price levels noted below are in reference to the September contract. 

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5978.50.  From here we continue higher, up to 6000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5948.50.  Look for buyers ahead of 5920 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers press down to 5884.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range.  Price was balanced overnight, trading inside the Wednesday range.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out mixed.

Today is rollfoward, meaning most active traders will begin trading the December contact after opening bell.  For the sake of the trading model statistics, the price levels shown in the morning trading report today and tomorrow will be in reference to the September contract.  We will roll forward over the weekend.  However, look for fast moves to occur.  Larger institutions tend to push the market around aggressively during these curious quarterly events.

Also on the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventory at 10:30am.  This report may be watched more closely as the USA allegedly teeters on the edge of nuclear war and three hurricanes are gunning for our southeast territories.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The day began with a gap up that was sold into. Then, by Wednesday afternoon the selling abated and a bid worked into the market.  We spent the rest of the day traversing the day’s range, eventually settling up near the daily high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a short squeeze higher.  Look for price to work up to the open gap up at 5987.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 6000 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 5932.25.  Look for buyers ahead of 5900 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked sideways along the low-end of Friday’s range overnight.

The economic calendar starts off slow this week.  We have Factory and Durable goods orders at 10am and a 4-week T-bill auction at 1pm.

Last week was bullish across the board.  By Tuesday morning, we established a strong responsive bid across the board and we spent Tuesday-to-Thursday rallying.  Friday marked time.  Here is the performance of each major index:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal day.  Price briefly rose to a new record intraday high before settling into balance.

Over the long holiday weekend, people on the news talked up war, as if we are right on the brink of it.  Also hurricane Irma strengthened to a category 5 and most models have it on a path to hit Florida.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 5987.25.  Look for sellers up at 5987.75 and two way  trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down through overnight low 5968.25 and continue lower, down to 5955 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers press up to 6000 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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