Dealing with a Monster

My brain got in the way of me trading yesterday.  I’ll go into further detail this weekend.  But first we must take our places for the finale of this week’s market.

Since gapping higher last Friday, the market has done very little exploration, however there is little occuring to make us bearish.  We had a methodical seller Wednesday, but no follow through. We’re above the midpoint for the week and value has progressed higher (albeit at a slow rate) the entire week.  I’ve highlighted the value progression in orange.

1514 was the floor during the globex session and has been a price that finds buyers all week.  Losing this level today could signal the buyers active this week are removing risk going into the weekend.  However, if the S&P closes above 1514 bets are being pressed.

The Nikkei was off over 1% overnight and our futures couldn’t press through this level.  Don’t you want this market?

BOTTOM LINE: WATCH 1514 on the /ES

Today the weather in Detroit is a special kind of bleak where it rains all day but it’s too cold to melt the snow.  It is the magic of pure Michigan in February.  I’ve seen February days more dreary then the line outside the 36^th District.  Today ranks top three dumpy days.

So what can one do to lift the spirits and remember the sun?  Exactly, bank coin in solar stocks!  The sector is on a tear today.  There’s a whole political theme behind these names, but you’re better off pulling up the price charts for these names and sticking with the biggest winner.

I’m currently long FSLR, and after getting rolled on yesterday, it appears the damage never happened.  It was fake.  Coin can continue to be banked in these names.  Don’t chase anything, as the names are volatile, but keep them on your radar this quarter as the sector is running.  Considering February is traditionally a weak month for the industry, this action suggests an unseasonably strong appetite for solar stocks.

Other names I like: TSL, SOL, JKS, and GTAT (which gets a little LED play too.  Unless LED makers abandon sapphire, which they might)

UPDATE: I stole this FSLR chart from Elizamae’s archives, note the dick guillotine:

Indeed a Happy Valentine at the house of Raul3.  The big move in ANGI has taken my portfolio to it’s highest levels ever.  There’s good action in the socials today, as Facebook looks to be clawing back lost ground.

I took a scale on my ANGI position.  It was only a ½ position going into earnings, and it became over ¾ in size when it rapidly appreciated.  I still hold around a ¼ position in the name.  And like CREE, I’m patiently waiting for a dip to size back in.

While I wait, I have a couple snacks I want to enjoy.  The sellers are backing off the tape today, but I’m waiting to see what the afternoon brings before I put my hard fought gains back to work.

The Debbie downer over here (there’s always one) is GNRC.  They reported decent earnings, but are taking a hit.  I now have a choice, cut the loss on what was a small position to begin with, or size up and get to know the name better.  I’m reserving this decision for the afternoon also. 

Look, 1514 has been a magical line in the market.  If it gets lost while I’m out eating tacos for lunch, things could get slippery.  Obviously the bulls have the trending edge here.  If I’m to press it, I want to see the heavy lifting continue.  Otherwise, this could be a nasty bull trap.

“I want to be rich and I want lots of money, I don’t care about clever, I don’t care about funny.” Lily Allen

Happy Valentine’s Day ladies,

Gentleman, buy something, anything for your girl.  I don’t care if you think the holiday is fake.

Like I mentioned yesterday, we found real sellers working yesterday.  They left their footprint on the profile, where we see the market making three rotations lower.  What impresses me about the action taken by the sellers is how methodical they were.  This was the clever work of an expert or her robot I’m sure of it. Check it out:

As of this writing, we’re trading below Monday’s pump range around 1514.  Turns out the level didn’t give us much pump in the S&P, although it allowed individual equities to rip higher.  Given yesterday’s profile and the selloff during the globex session, I’m turning my attention to a downside scenario today.  The overnight low sits at 1510 which is right where things get slippery.  Should we lose that level intraday, I’ve boxed the area I want to see price sustain to keep me constructive on my solid long positions.  Should we begin trading into this area, I may scale profits in extended names and cut small losses before they morph into large ones.

Below 1504 today, and a major sentiment shift has occurred.

Holy earnings blow out.  Look at our newest enterprises, wowing the street with hot numbers.  Zillow and Angie’s List are ripping afterhours, partially because there’s a housing resurgence, partially because they’re the way of the future, the future, way of the future, ehm. Future.  Howard Hughes (HHC) ripped all day.  That was my tribute to the aviation legend.

Fly pens posts like ‘The Amazing Market’ that get me so pumped to bank coin I have to sit in my car for 10 minutes listening to classical music so I don’t put my head through the windshield like Busta Rhymes the first time he heard Eminem.  Get excited people!  These rip-tastic days are numbered.  You need to, “get it while it’s here boy.”

Every time I upload a blog post I feel like I’m a member of the future society.  It’s never a burden.  Just as many Americans enjoy a fecal cruise, I enjoy typing a message to the world then permanently etching it into the archives of the greatest website on the internet.  Future.

ZNGA, Z, YELP, FB, TRIP, OPEN, ANGI, LNKD, take your pick.  One of them is going to double.  Stick to the charts and you can ride along without getting castrated by the inevitable loser.

If you can’t allocate risk capital into this space, you’re bound to miss out.  I’ve been beaten with a dough roller by YELP once.  I cut off my right pinky as a reminder to stay humble (kidding).  But know what type of beast you’re dealing with.  Know the range volatility and position accordingly. 

One can only lead a horse to water.  You best take a drink before Elizamae makes you his main course.

We had a bout of selling come into the market late this morning, pushing stock prices around a bit.  I raised my cash levels to 9% through the sale of American Apparel and a scale in Angie’s list.  I still like both names.

There’s serious strength today in Trulia and Zillow.  I’ll be keeping both names on my radar going forward.

We’re seeing mixed action in the solar sector.  My new FSLR long is getting engulfed in sell orders.  I’m not overly concerned as the chart continues to look constructive.

It’s interesting the Carnival cruise ship made news headlines today.  After watching the State of the Union last night, and admittedly being a little drunken from Guinness, I was thinking about how stupid we really are.  As a nation, we like to comport ourselves in a manner that exudes civility and order.  All these politicians sit in their fancy rooms and have clapping contests and we all get on with our lives like good first world class citizens.  But it’s all so delicate.  The only thing keeping us from turning into Afghani troglodytes is better weather and landscape.  Put 1000 average Americans in cave country without food and all hell will break loose, everything will become a toilet.  Disgusting.

It’s all pinky up until you’re punched in the face over a Cool Ranch taco.

I better bottom line this post.

BOTTOM LINE:  There’s been a bit of selling but we’re still above key levels.  House hunting apps are all the rave.  I have more cash on hand now than I did earlier today.  Top pick remains TPX.

Tight range overnight, and considering we had a State of the Union address and I was expecting a binary reaction I’m rather thrilled with the quiet globex session.  That’s what’s up!

The president didn’t throw any major curveballs.  He’s just as stoked as we are that the market is ripping.  It was one of his first talking points.  Here’s my health of the country bellwether: where’s the Dow and how much can I sell my house for? Both are up, so USA #1.

As I pen this piece the S&P future is drifting slightly higher but 1520 is looking like a key upside level today.  Down below I want to see buyers resurface at 1514.  They handled that level with a calm and collected pomp yesterday.  Should they lose it things could get slippery.  You can reference yesterday’s post to see the slippery zone I’m still observing below.

That’s it.  Riding the rally is simple, until it isn’t.  Protect your necks.

Here we are mid-February aka halfway through the first quarter.  Are you on track to earn your quarterly performance bonus?  February is a peculiar month.  It’s short, up here in the north it’s wicked cold and grey, it has the Super Bowl, and it’s a set-the-tone-for-the-year kind of month.  You may argue January sets the tone, but when month two grinds on and the bulls are still pressing the highs, you have to really step back and observe your surroundings.

I do my best work in February.  It’s always dark outside when I get to my office, and it’s dark outside when I leave.  I can drink with friends, but most of them lie dormant like bears most the week.  I could go to the bar, but really I can only expect vagrants and pickpockets.  So I work, then I go home and work.  And before I know it the sun starts hanging around a bit longer and my purse is larger.  It’s a good month.

I’ve made a generous sum of money thus far this year.  A great deal of it was made yesterday on ANGI.  I remained humble to the market and scaled off some profits.  I reinvested the funds plus some into CCJ and GNRC. I got the tingle to sell a little into the close today. Yet here I sat, into the closing bell, unable to part ways with any of my positions.  They all look so good.  Thus I’m riding into the State of The Union address with only 3% cash.  Ah, my lovely three, there you are.

I’m hoping the SoTU, put on by BHO, takes my SoTY, C, and rips it beyond HOD to HOY again TOMM.

Zynga absolutely destroyed chasers today.  It came back to where I added post earnings.  For any home gamers keeping track of where I stand on the name, half of my pre-earnings legacy position in the name is up 33%.  Plus I booked two wins in the name earlier this year (once from the back seat of a wild taxi cab ride), putting bread on the table for myself and my animals.  I feel like I have a good handle on the name this year, and yet, I need to make sure I don’t fumble this third go at the name.

I’m sitting on a big win in American Apparel too.  I suppose I’m mentioning all this winship because I’m concerned with the President’s speech tonight.  People often walk away from his speeches with binary emotions.  Love it, hate it.  And the market can follow suit.  My individual positions look good, the indices look good, the currencies look good, but this event can dick punch me off my high water mark.

So even though I abhor watching the teevee, I’ll have to catch tidbits from this talk.  I may get drunk.  Adieu.

One piece of the market that is sucking wind today is last week’s high flying social stocks.  While many of these companies get the “privilege” of being at the Goldman Sachs tech and internet conference their stock prices are taking a (s)hit.

Aside from all that noise you need to be aware of how an instrument trades before you hop on board.  Take ZNGA for instance: if you’re surprised when the stock moves 8-10% against you in one day, you’ve never traded this wiry bastard.  Welcome to trading ZNGA, size your position accordingly.

Facebook continues to get the infidel treatment by the terrorists on twitter.  I love the sentiment out there, it’s one of the only things keeping me in this weak chart.  I may get shaken out of this name, or I may get larger, but I’m not yet willing to write this position off as a loser.  And if you recall, I’ve already booked solid gains from the first pump in the name.  Taking scales is what works for me.  I have booked profits cushioning this position.  Bring it on.

I can promise you this, the last place I want to be is holed up in some ugly banquet room, standing behind a table pandering to banksters.  I feel bad for the companies held in GS purgatory.  Many of the employees sent over would rather be enjoying their MJNA, reading comic books and writing code that will soon rule the world.

Except for CREE, they’re all business: buying hookers and cocaine for the GS bankers, making moves.

The market is doing its levitation trick again today and it’s best to play along.  Otherwise you’ll end up disappearing, poof!  It is magic, you see?  You like?

I’m continuing to keep it as simple as possible to avoid mistakes.  This means I don’t have much news to bring you.  I have a broad array of longs in industries across the world.  While some of the stocks take pause or rip around with tenacious volatility (see ZNGA) you have other stocks continue to behave like productive members of society.  Doing as they’re told, going higher.  Just as I do what I’m told: drive to work, punch away at excel, marry and reproduce, etc.

We’ve sustained trade above the pump line I highlighted this morning for most of the session.  If the bulls continue to hold on up here, the probability of an exploration higher becomes very high.  Grab ahold of something dear to you, and participate in capital appreciation, like a good citizen!  Then you can buy a house before they get too expensive.  Man up.

TOP PICK: TPX

http://youtu.be/OVpPR1pyfkA