I turn dials and fiddle with knobs to hone in on harmonic rotations
Joined Oct 26, 2011
4,086 Blog Posts

This Angel is Posed To Give Shorts “The Shocker”

Keep an eye on Angie’s List this week as it flags near this key level. I love this ancillary housing play with a splash of social web experience. I like their recurring income stream via subscriber service and their disruption of the contractor game. Much like hotels cringe at the thought of a bad TRIP review, contractors must do the same. These companies are the real deal and ANGI shrugged off the downdraft in FB post earnings.

There are several talking points that keep me bullish on this name, but the core reason I’m long is this sexy little chart:

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No Change Yet

Yesterday the action in the S&P did little to change to overall outlook of the direction of the market.  We’re still trading within the confines of brackets and there’s still cock fight action surrounding the 1500 century mark.

Bears can claim a small victory over the bulls yesterday in not allowing the value to be moved higher than last Friday.  Notice the value areas overlap, but the Tuesday value area has a lower VAH, VAL, and VPOC.  Bulls need to contain the downside for the remainder of the week, else the likelihood of an exploration lower increases.

What I want to see most is a healthy auction, represented by a smooth bell-shaped distribution, occurring within the area of 1502-1498.  Once these levels are thoroughly traded, our next move is a high probability hand tip for the direction of the next swing.

The NVPOC from Monday is the major target for sellers today.  If they’re able to reach it, I would consider their ability to dictate the direction of this tape to be increasing.  However, I will monitor the area for signs of buying activity.  You likely want to cut losses out of your portfolio if we begin rotating down to 1496 with behavior that suggests we’re closing the NVPOC because you losers will participate 1.5x or more with the broad market selloff.  Unless they don’t…this could be telling of buyer interest.

Remember to be water.

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Eyes On $ZNGA

As we near the close I’ve decided to hold my shares of ZNGA long into earnings.  Rhino just came out with a well thought out piece on why the company is a short.  This is not good.  His batting average is high on earning’s plays.  However, like RaginCajun I’ve traded the name around these last few months building in a nice buffer on my position.  The joy of scaling, if you will.

With my colleagues thoughts disclosed and considering there’s three of us on this play (!) I thought I should give my two cents.  I have liked the chart for several weeks now.  It’s trudging along, popping eight percent on occasion, then being faded.  The company itself I ABSOLUTELY DESPISE.  I grew up playing real video games like Mario brothers and Street Fighter.  Then I moved onto Mario Kart and Golden Eye.  I was briefly addicted to Super Mario 3 (!) often timing how fast I could beat the game (blow the whistle toot toot!).  My days playing games trailed off around Halo 2 as I began to realize what a massive waste of time the games were.  Oh, somewhere in there I played a ton of Grand Theft Auto and Roller Coaster Tycoon.

Then they started making really lame video games that people played on Facebook and their stupid smart phones.  These games suck, all of them.  The people who play them are sloths, high on the $MJNA. 

OUR COUNTRY is full of sloth like creatures, and they play these wicked games.  That is why I’m long this dildo company into earnings.

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Gentle Bears

Today there have been bears all over Twitter, talking about laying the smack down at 1505 on the /ES.  Here we are, lingering at the 1505 level into the one o’clock hour, and I’m looking for the bears.  So far they’re force has been weak, and I’m expecting higher prices.

I got a bit ahead of the market this morning and went ahead and made TPX a full size position.  I like that chart, it’s a tight little pullback to support and it’s in a volume void of galactic scale as my comrade ElizaMae pointed out a few weeks prior. 

The highs today have thus far been poorly auctioned, but here we are retesting them as I type.  I’m looking for signs of sellers, but so far they’re not being very earnest.  All roar no claw.

There’s lots of session left but the bears will need to show follow through sooner than later otherwise the buy orders will start flowing back in.  I’m expecting a hand tip by 2:30pm.

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The Cock Fight

Yesterday was close to forming the rare PBR setup on the S&P future contract.  The characteristics are a P-shaped short squeeze profile followed by a b-shaped long liquidation profile.  Both profiles on their own signal the movement in price to be a temporary phenomenal fueled by shorts covering their positions or longs liquidating, respectively.

When you see the two profiles sequentially, it signals a dangerous environment much like a cock fight.  The moves are violent but until a cock digs their talons into the other fighter the play is to fade back to midpoint.

You can see the naked VPOC was finally closed up yesterday, that point has been on my mind several sessions as it lingered below.  We saw a decent reaction by the buyers down at 1490.25 making it a VERY significant reference point going forward.  Should we not see buyers remerge at these levels on a retest it could signal the environment has changed and reducing equity exposure prudent.

Elizamae asked me a few days back on my thoughts regarding the lack of auction in the four point range surrounding the 1500 century mark. I’ll reiterate that it resembles a bird fight, put that imagery in your brain. Violent flapping and chest puffing are the norm. Think Twitter. If we see a health auction of these levels today, the next move is our tell. Otherwise, the cock fight continues. Until proven otherwise, however, the prevailing trend has the edge.


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Why I Scale Out

Today was the quintessential example of why I scale out of stocks at logical price levels.  Check out the intraday action in TSL:

Pull up a daily chart of TSL and put your eyes on $5.75.  That’s a logical scale point.  If you want to be a chart chump like me you best learn to spot these levels and trade accordingly.  Now I still hold a 2/3 position but I’ve already booked over a 10% gain. 

I don’t love having a full size position on.  Until I get my first scale I’m looking at a potential for a big loss.  However, I know my probabilities and when to push my edge.  Now that I’ve booked a gain, I can put a stop in place and allow the market to decide whether I will get some cream or just the necessary bread and butter to be a consistently profitable trader.

Today Trina printed a huge upside shadow suggesting the presence of an aggressive–reactive seller.  It’s probably a conservative (hehehe, I kid).  I like to examine how a stock trades after such an escapade as it gives me tons of information.  Was today enough to work off the HUGE overhead supply from last year or will newly initiated buyers start hitting the exit too?

I couldn’t care less.  My job here is done.

I have to post the edited version of this song, because the video is essential:

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All of Twitter Went Short Friday. Why Didn’t You? ROFL

Coming into the day 100% long I expected to get a worse beating than this.  The broad markets are down today and it’s taking most of my portfolio with it.  Before it had a chance to sink me to a -2% day, the stock gods blessed me with a manic 8% run in TSL, my former largest position mind you.  Former, mind you, because I scaled 1/3 off at $5.75.  I told you hoping any home gamers would do likewise.  I sold Goldman too, all of it, because if any sector is due for correction it’s the financials which have been on rip for three months.  All this action raised my book to 15% cash going into the gap fill lower.  We talked all about that too.

Expect my tenor when addressing you to change modestly going forward.  My days of being premier in these halls are numbered.  And that’s fine.  I will add this feather to my cap and continue on my merry way (no homo).  As a trader you must always stay humble to the markets.  They are much larger than any one of us.  They are the collective action of trillions of dollars sloshing around, much like the tides of the oceans.  I will continue to be water, but I hate all of you.  Well, most of you.

The levels we currently are experiencing were highlighted this morning.  So far, no real damage has been done to the bull case.  We’re in a big range and we’re near the bracket low.  This could be an excellent buying opportunity.  I would like to see the NVPOC I mentioned earlier get tested.  That’s an interesting price level that could display a high degree of sentiment.

We have ZNGA reporting tomorrow and that’s sure to disappoint many social degenerates.  I plan to hold some long exposure through their earnings because MJNA is ripping and the CEO of this company promotes the use of MJNA declaring 4/20 a work holiday.  Good for you.

Bottom line: this sell off is contained until it isn’t, readers want to throw mashed potatoes at each other rather than banking coin, and marijuana is my basis for speculating ZNGA rips post earnings.

As of this writing my book is down 1.2%

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FLASH: Solar Working

The solar industry is seeing solid gains so far this session. Keep these stocks on your radar. Many boast healthy charts.

Details and charts via finviz.com

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Monday, Monday

Good morning traders.  The Super Bowl is complete and futures are off eight handles from their globex highs.  Early selling has the S&P back to the important 1500 level. How we treat this zone continues to be paramount as can be seen by the number of sharp rejections (read: quick moves away from) this price level:

I’ve marked up the profile showing the poorly auctioned zone from 1500.25-1497.75. There have been many rejections in-and-around the 1500 century mark. I’ve also noted in green areas where I will look for signs of buying activity. The first zone represents 2/3 of the January 31 value area with the top range being a gap fill. Revisiting this level cleans up both a monthly and daily gap on the charts. It’s very constructive action.

Below there we still have a naked VPOC from 01/24. Should the buyers not present themselves at those levels I would consider the action a strong shift in sentiment.

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Post Super Bowl Commercial Roundup

The world’s best marketing is on display Super Bowl Sunday.  It’s hard for advertisers to get our ADD attention.  Yet once a year marketers are promised a massive audience who are actually excited to see commercials.

Going into tonight, my position bet was with Best Buy.  I thought they would deliver a solid advertising presence.  I found their commercial to be a non-event mostly because I was outside running a charcoal grill in the sub-arctic during its run.  No one mentioned it otherwise.

Samsung crushed the commercial scene.  They ran a funny Super Bowl ad campaign hard on the internet leading up to today and then a late game variation on the idea.  Then they splashed LeBron James in FTW.  Nice use of Saul Goodman too.

Chrysler delivered two solid ads, sticking with the serious tenor that the media machine receives well.  They played the military and the God card.  They want you to cry, they want you talk, then they want you to buy a pickup truck.

Through all the drama and Beyoncé emerged one very clear winner.  They didn’t have to spend a dollar on advertising, although they have plenty of cash on hand.  All they needed was a few thousand inefficient metal halide bulbs to overwhelm the electrical grid.  If only they had lit the stadium with the lights of the future, the LED lights of Cree, we would have had an uninterrupted Super Bowl.

Cree is already a beast this year, up nearly 30% in one short month.  The recent advancements in lighting grade LED technology are a boon for company as adoption rates accelerate.  Infrastructure rhetoric is sure to be on the tongues of our current administration.  How much of this is currently being baked into the stock price of Cree is unclear, but converting more of a city’s infrastructure away from outdated lighting is an insurance policy against fragile electrical grids.

Cree wins.  The babies from space had me for a minute, then it was Kia.

Bonus points to the Iron Man trailer, showing Air Force One blowing into pieces only seconds after the shocking power outage which my jaded mind instantly thought could be a terrorist attack.  Strange times we live in.

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