RAUL3 IS SWEARING OFF STOCK TRADING

I just got done booking a massive loss from another earnings blow up over at SWI and I figured, you know what? Screw KORS too. I’m done with this gaudy shit, sold.

I am so completely disgusted with my stock/option trading process I could vom across the room Poltergeist style. I performed a little exercise this morning, something to keep me from hulk slamming my monitors. I went through every trade I’ve taken over the last 12 months.

LOL

I’ve given my brokers enough cash via commissions to buy a 2003 Honda Accord with 75k on the odometer in great shape. Whilst churning my book to and fro, I’ve managed to scrape out over 15% in losses. Done.

I’m turning over a new leaf. I cannot be trusted as an operator of stocks. Instead I will be the lazy man I was destined to be.

I am becoming an investor.

Developing…

We went up looking for sellers but all we found were more buyers. We are in the midst of the most gnarly bull run all year. And to think, just 1 week ago today peak new cycle bear-shittery was all the rage.

I have one measured move left, about 15 Nasdaqs higher.

We’re stalling out a bit right at our first measured move target from this morning.  It is odd, Nasdaq making new highs like this while most else lags.  But, I suppose it has been the opposite enough times, what with the Nasdaq not ATH’ing alongside its comrads.

These measured moves are based on the fib extensions of the last major rotations.  Essentially it’s a way of visualizing where buy stops may exist.

Check it out:

Nasdaq futures are higher overnight on a session featuring normal volume and range, but a session that spent the duration trending higher. The action has pushed price to new contract high.

Initial/Continuing claims data came in a bit better than expected this morning and received little-to-no reaction then a delayed buy. The economic calendar is loaded this morning. Investors will most closely be observing day two of Yellen in Washington—today delivering a testimonial to the Senate Banking Panel. Also on the docket is Philadelphia Fed at 10am, NAHB Housing Index at 10am, and Net Long-term TIC Flows at 4pm.

Yesterday we opened gap up for the 4^th day in a row. Price churned about while investors listened to Yellen testify to the House. Late in the morning we went range extension up but quickly fell back into IB setting up ripe conditions for a gap fill. Sellers pushed the overnight gap shut and overshot the gap while putting us neutral. Responsive buyers pushed us back up toward session high to end the day.

Intermediate term we are back at bracket high. Short term memory says look for sellers to defend here and whack us back through the range. To expect anything different would be to ignore recent history. The caveat is our current velocity. When we come into a key reference point at high speed, you expect to see the rejection/reversal happen quickly. Otherwise it’s likely we continue through it.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push down into the overnight inventory to close the overnight gap down to 4537.25. From there I’ll look for a continued push to 4530 where we see responsive buying a two way trade take hold.

Hypo 2 is we sustain trade up at new contract high and go hunting for buy stops. Measured move targets are 4578.75 and 4594.75.

Hypo 3 is liquidation. Sellers reject a new contract high harshly, push down fast to 4530 where buyers mount a weak defense but are ultimately overrun. Look for continuation down to 4515.

Levels:

Seeing my book ignite into a 4 alarm fire on a modest neutral day like today is about enough. This is a mean spirited gag of sorts, allowing minor appreciation, book wise, on the upswing, and total and complete decapitation to the downside.

Oh the joys of OPEX.

My newest position with Elon’s cousin over at SCTY is down a quick 4% and I see no reason why I cannot lop off another 3-4% tomorrow. I bought this, against the better judgment of Exodus which is like, “whoa son, solar seasonality sucks hot wind for the next three months and the hybrid oscillator is over heated.”

But here we are. This afternoon weakness will not stick but damn.

Nasdaq futures are higher overnight on a balanced session of trade featuring normal range and volume. The most prominent feature of the session is a unidirectional rotation up that occurred from about 8-9pm eastern. The action managed to exceed yesterday’s range high slightly before finding responsive sellers and churning in the upper quadrant of Tuesday’s range.

The economic calendar heats up today, with Industrial/Manufacturing Production stats at 9:15am followed by Fed Chair Yellen’s Semi-Annual Testimony to The House Financial Panel. At 10:30am we have crude/distillate inventory data, at 2pm the Fed Beige Book, and at 3pm Fed Williams is talking economic outlook in Phoenix.

Yesterday we continued auctioning higher for a third day. The action was dynamic enough to leave behind yet another open gap after buyers came in and drove price higher off the open. Buyers managed to push up into the upper-most volume distribution which established a clear MCVPOC at 4530. Sellers were responsive at these levels and we faded slightly into closing bell.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for a choppy open. Between the 9:15am data and Ms. Yellen starting her talk at 10am I suspect the market will go into wait-and-see mode. At some point I will look for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and close the open gap down to 4518. From there I will look for sellers to take out overnight low 4515.50 to ultimately target the 4500 century mark.

Hypo 2 buyers hold the overnight gap and we continue pushing higher to take out overnight high 4532.50 and potentially make new swing high.

Levels:

185 Nasdaqs ago we had a long talk on a dark Thursday. The end of times was imminent and we prepared for full grid failure and foreign invasion.  By brunch Monday the fix was in, and if you didn’t sit and/or buy into the most recent Tour de Bracket Low then you’re in a most uncomfortable predicament.

On one hand you’ve missed a vicious rally with all the trimmings of a volatile bounce—they’re big, they’re fast.

On the other hand, and more importantly, you have to decide about whether you’re willing to initiate new longs, high atop a leg higher.

I suppose you may even be considering hedging or adding to shorts.

There are nearby magnets north of our current prices. Three gaps were left below, two way below, and we know this market has methodically eroded any and all gaps, but when?

I can say with certainty the market is looking for sellers. It’s really discovering new prices along the way. Sellers are full on no-call-no-show today.

These are short squeeze conditions lads, go forth into Exodus and scour that screen now. THRX, SLCA, and a few more jump out at me.

Nasdaq futures were quiet overnight, trading a balanced session with normal volume and range. The session featured a slight drift higher. The action took place in the upper quad of yesterday’s range, slightly exceeding it and testing the key LVN at 4493.50.

At 8:30 am Advance Retail Sales came in below expectations. The initial reaction is muted-to-positive. Also on the economic docket today we have China GDP at 10pm. Tomorrow morning Fed Chair Yellen will deliver her semi-annual testimony to the House Financial Panel.

Intermediate term, we can see the Nasdaq is contained within bracketed/neutral trade. It has been like a ping-pong match since about February. Last week we bounced along the bottom of the range before the Friday gap up.

Yesterday we opened to a big gap up and drove higher. Buyers became initiative during the session and we continued higher to close the 6/26 open gap and more. Overall the session has the structure of a double distribution trend day.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to push above overnight high 4495.50 and test up to the LVN zone at 4512. Here I will look for responsive sellers and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers push into the overnight inventory to close the gap to 4487.50 then continue lower to test down to 4480. Look for buyers to defend here and balanced trade inside the upper quadrant of yesterday’s range.

Hypo 3 sellers push down through 4480 to test the conviction of yesterday morning’s open drive buyers around 4467. If buyers no show, look for liquidation to take hold, pushing down through to 4444. Stretch targets on the downside are 4434.50, 4427.25, then a full weekend gap fill down to 4409.

Levels:

It always seems so simple, in hindsight, these plans we lay forth. I booked my QLD (leveraged Nasdaq ETF) earlier. We’re hitting my target here, the old 6/26 open gap.  This is a show of force.  We talked about this.

I’m fairly certain we can run higher, like ridiculously higher from here, from this swing low.   But, meh, I will hang out for now and shoot dice.

Hat tip to The Fly and his almighty Exodus software platform for its freakishly accurate SHOMP abilities:

Why aren’t you taking advantage of these institutional grade tools?  Do you like making emotional decisions?  You should have emailed me yesterday to set up a personal 1-on-1 tour.  Choose today [email protected].

Nasdaq futures are coming into the week higher after a grinder of a session. Price opened gap down yesterday evening but it wasn’t long before buyers started working into the tape. We then spent the rest of the session trading higher, traversing over 80 points worth of range on abnormal volume. The action stalled up just a tick before the 6/17 open gap.

On the economic calendar today, we start quiet, with only a Monthly Budget Statement at 2pm. As the week progresses however, it will become increasingly heavier with economic data points and Fed’s Yellen performing her semi-annual testimonies in Washington.

Last week volatility ratcheted up both during RTH and globex. The choppy action only managed to take price a touch lower on the week after a big up gap and push higher Friday. The only problem contextually with our swing low is the gap left behind at 4337. Recent history has shown that no gap is left behind in our marketplace.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for choppy, two-way trade. We’re set to open right atop the annual VPOC and typically we see murky trade around these highly trafficked areas. I suspect the action will give way to sellers who test down to Friday’s range high 4426.50. This level was a key resistance for the entire month of July thus far, therefore I am interested to see if buyers can convert it into support. Look for buyers to defend north of 4426.50 and a push higher to target 4466.25. Stretch target is the open gap at 4481.75.

Hypo 2 sellers push down through 4426.50, closing the range gap and setting up a full overnight gap fill down to 4409.

Hypo 3 buyers gap-and-go higher, take out 4466.25 early, sustain trade above it, and then muster up a secondary leg higher to 4481.75 and then the LVN at 4493.50. Look for responsive sellers in this region.

I plan to book a few position trades into this strength today, in particular my QLD long.

Levels: