Calm NASDAQ Drifts Flat into Tuesday

NASDAQ futures are down about a half point ahead of opening bell Tuesday morning after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price poked up and made another new record high overnight before falling into balance.

On the economic docket today we have JOLTS job openings at 10am, both a 52- and 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, a 3-year Note auction at 1pm, and Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began flat.  We drifted higher, then lower, forming a healthy two-way auction before ultimately drifting slowly higher into the afternoon and close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a push up through overnight high 6331.50 and a tag of 6343.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 push down through overnight low 6305.25 and tag 6283.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers sustain trade above 6343.25 triggering a trend-like move higher, up through open air.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into the week up a few points after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower Sunday evening but discovered before midnight and spent the rest of extended trade slowly working higher.

The economic calendar is light today.  We only have a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am to concern ourselves with.

Last week markets worked sideways early in the week.  They drifted slightly higher.  Thursday morning feature selling, then Thursday afternoon through the close of the week featured a strong rally—just like we saw in the two weeks prior.  The Russell lagged, but the Russell made an outsized move during September that it is still consolidating.  The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a double distribution trend day.  The day began gap up.  Sellers quickly closed the overnight gap and a responsive bid showed up right around the Thursday close.  Buyers aggressively defended the area and we spent the rest of the day trending higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and work down through overnight low 6268.  Look for buyers down at 6263.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through overnight high 6298.75 and struggle around the 6300 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers work up to 6243.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Remember, remember, the fifth of November!

A rope, a rope, to hang the Pope!

Greetings lads, fine day yes indeed.  There’s a flood coming to wash this planet clean of all the hairless apes.  And that means our job is to sustain our health and gather supplies before the real disruption of state and country comes pressing onto the shores…WATER.

The very fair and resourceful scientists at iBankCoin laboratory woke up inside of a thick fog this morning, like something you would see in Ireland.  We reported directly to the furnace room where we checked the system—spoiler alert—it is running perfectly.

The gods have kept Exodus Market Intelligence in their graces for another week.  After turning a few dials and knobs, a report sputtered out of the bottom of the supercomputer.  The report forecasts what we might expect to see over the next five trading days.  It will be extremely helpful in our quest to gather a supply of fiat US Federal Reserve notes out on the fighting fields of the NASDAQ, NYSE, and Dow Jones.

Said fiat US dollars shall be converted into bitcoins, shares of Tesla, batteries, solar panels, and hooch.

Can you believe our moronic authoritarian leader is giving Janet Yellen the pink slip?  He thinks the stock market is up because of him.  HA.ha.ha…silly fool!  It is up—spoiler alert—because Janet Yellen can sit in front of the psychopaths in the House of Representatives and sociopaths in the Senate and answer questions FOR HOURS, mind you, HOURS, without answering a single question.  Yes, she is the master of rambling.  It is a gift.

She cannot be replaced.

We have made acquired more wealth during Janet Yellen’s reign than any other time in our brief history.  I will miss her predictable, grandma-like candor for the rest of my life.

Also, she’s a good gal, she’s a good gal!  And sexy.

We are so screwed.  Trumps own scientists say humans are destroying the planet.  Mankind’s Last Hope—Elon Musk (All Praise and Glory to The Leader)—is under constant attack from the belly crawling union serpents who want to derail all productivity with their sloth-like ways.  The food system is designed to render man impotent, frail, and sick.  The first world is flooded with boy loving men.

Screwed.

But alas, our job is to focus on that which we can control.  And that is not the stock market, the tides, or our own bodies.  The only thing we have real control over is our minds, and it is our minds that separate us from the hogs and goats.  And the best way to steady the mind is by building a strong foundation of logic, then using said logic to make decisions that result in us gathering supplies.

We can be kind along the way.  We do not have to be cold and cruel like a global corporation, ad infinitum.

Are the above paragraphs the ramblings of a madman?  Perhaps, and as always TBD.  However, I am incredible grateful for you, my listener.  I will always put it all on the line for you.  If you made it this far, you have no idea how fucking grateful I am to have your attention.  I will not squander it.

Models are bullish heading into next week.  We are extra bullish on biotech in November based entirely off past performance (which is not indicative of future results).

Distinguished members of Exodus Market Intelligence, the 155th (yooooooo) consecutive edition of Strategy Session is live.  If you want, go check it out!

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price pushed lower during extended trade, tagging the 6200 century mark before discovering a strong responsive bid.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out better than expected.

Also on the economic docket today we have President Trump declaring the new head of the Federal Reserve at 3pm.

We will solemnly miss Janet Yellen and the incredible stock market she has championed 🙁

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began gap up and we slowly faded lower all day, closing the open gap left behind Tuesday morning nearly to the tick before two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work higher, up to 6262.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work up to 6284.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down to 6181.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, nearly uninterrupted, exploring open air during the Halloween night.  At 9:15am ADP employment data came out much better than expected.

We have an FOMC rate decision today at 2pm.  Traders down at the CME are currently pricing in a 98.5% probability of rates staying unchanged.  However, the third reaction after the decision is likely to dictate direction into the end of the week.

Also on the docket today we have ISM Manufacturing/Employment at 10am and crude oil inventories at 10:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Your ‘clue’ to work the long side was seller’s inability to close the overnight gap.  Instead responsive buyers stepped in ahead of the gap and we slowly worked higher, slowly working to new record heights.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and attempt a move back into the Thursday range up at 6258.50. Sellers fail, and we rally up through overnight high 6284.50 and continue exploring open air until 2pm, then use third reaction to dictate action into the afternoon.

Hypo 2 sellers press a full gap fill down to 6252.50 then we continue lower, down through overnight low 6246.75.  Look for buyers down at 6240 and two way trade until 2pm, then use third reaction to dictate action into the afternoon.

Hypo 3 gap-and-go higher, open air rally until FOMC at 2pm, then use third reaction to dictate action into the afternoon.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.   Price worked back up to record highs overnight, slow-and-steady.

Economic calendar is light today.  We have the Case-Shiller Home Price index at 9am, Consumer Confidence at 10am, and a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  Monday began with a gap down.  We quickly filled it and then took out overnight high before reversing down through the entire range and poking below overnight low.  Then a responsive bid stepped in to the neutral tape and two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go higher—a move up to 6263.75 before two-way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers press into overnight inventory and close the gap down to 6227 then take out overnight low 6219.25.  Look for buyers ahead of 6200 and two way trade.

Hypo 3 stronger selling down to 6181.50 before two way trade.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures came into the week gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Given the extremely balanced nature of extended trade, given the context of ending last week with a trend day, and given the fact I woke up a touch late I had to buy the futures in the premarket instead of putting my daily report out in time :-/

Anyhow, Personal Spending data came out better than expected at 8:30am.

Paul Manafort, a Trump bro, is being asked to turn himself in to the Feds. I am not sure about what.  I am not a news guy, especially before my morning covfefe.

Also on the economic calendar today we have a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am and a somewhat rare ‘cash management’ bill being auctioned at 1pm.

Last week we drifted, then sold off Thursday, formed an excess low, then trended higher.  The Dow and Russell just sort of marked time during all of this.  The performance of each major index from last week is shown below:

The real story is the NASDAQ.  On Friday it opened pro gap up then trended higher all day.  Huge rally.

Heading into today my primary expectation was for a move to close the overnight gap then take out overnight high 6223.25.  That is complete.

For the rest of the morning my primary expectation is for the NASDAQ to drift sideways, finding balance above 6208.

Hypo 2 we continue discovering higher prices.  Look for sellers way up at 6263.75.

Hypo 3 sellers gain traction and we trade down to 6181.25.

Levels:

To some, the market looks like it is hardly worthy of the unprecedented gains being achieved during these last 5 years.  Yet here we are, plugging higher nearly every week.  The complications inside the market are all operating smoothly, with very few reasons for concern.

There was some dispersion last week.  It is visible when you view the 1-week performance of each industry.  This is an easy thing to do inside Exodus.  A few clicks of the mouse reveal a bit of weakness below the surface of strong indices:

But then there is this mind-blowing, non-stop rally in semiconductors.  This is the real deal.  All those promises made back in 1999 about our lives being changed by computers and the internet are coming true and it is going to take billions-and-billions (extra Trump) of semiconductors.  Just look at the semiconductor chart:

Anyhow, our job is only to take life one week at a time.  And we take each week one day at a time.  According to the objective way we evaluate the stock market every week, the IndexModel, according to the model we are bullish.  Expectations are not extreme.  All we are looking for is a calm drift, perhaps with a slight upward bias, out through Halloween and into November.

Distinguished members of Exodus Market Intelligence, the 154th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday pro-gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  We spent the night trend up, and this began Thursday afternoon when Amazon reported better-than-expected earnings.

Economic events are light for the rest of the week.  We had GDP at 8:30am, it was super strong.  At 10am the final October reading of Confidence comes out of U. of Michigan.  I would imagine confidence is running high.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began flat, we made a little push higher in the morning, then a little push lower in the morning, then went sideways–balance.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a little push down into the overnight inventory.  Look for buyers ahead of 6100 and a trend higher into the weekend.

Hypo 2 gap-and-go higher.  Trend into the weekend.

Hypo 3 gap fill down to 6084.75.  Look for buyers down at 6067.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked sideways overnight in a balanced manner.  At 8:30am three data were dumped out–wholesale inventories, initial/continuing jobless claims, and advance goods trades balance.  Thus far the reaction is muted.

Also on the economic agenda today we have pending home sales at 10am and a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The day began gap down.  Buyers closed and briefly poked above overnight high before a strong responsive seller stepped in.  Sellers then became initiative and pressed us down into the 10/4 trading range before responsive buying stepped in and bought the dip.  We spent the rest of the day working higher, eventually closing above the daily midpoint.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through the overnight low and trade down to 6030.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 we press up through overnight high 6076 and tag 6081 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers press up to 6098.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves: