OIL FAST ENCROACHES ON $100; AMERICAN RESERVES REMAIN AT 40 YEAR LOWS *

You should know I’ve traded well today after a brief collapse of my PNL. I am now just down 50bps, after being harangued to the tune of 1.5%. Part of my #success was to believe in the wanton incompetence of my government, depleting its strategic oil reserves to teach Putin a lesson. Meanwhile, oil is barreling henceforth towards $100 and the very cold winter chills awaits the dastardly bastards in the west.

The Biden bastards were supposed to fill up the SPR months and months ago — but balked at the prices of $70. They much prefer to contemplate buying here at $100. You have to understand something — these are not maniacal evil geniuses in control of everything, stemming from the weather to the way everyone prefers to be gay now. These are creatures, subhumans proles, who are neurotic and paranoid and weak. They use the laws and the special police to uphold their power, deploying MUHHHH constitution and democracy and liberty to ply those policemen, alongside lucrative pensions, to serve them.

Meanwhile, we can all see very plainly they’ve taken a great thing and ruined it — cast aside freedom for tyranny and use war to maintain their feeble grip on power.

America began the millennia in firm control of all parts of the world. That influence is waning rapidly, perhaps at the greatest speed since the collapse of the Mongol Empire. None of this is reflected in share prices, since profits are bountiful and the global markets are firm. But there are cracks and fissures in the bedrock and it won’t take much to collapse this piece of shit into dust — starting with rapidly pacing UPWARDS WTI/Brent prices.

I was walking down a dark alleyway by myself after the close yesterday and got my jaw punched loose by the Ghost of Larry Ellison. I had an $ORCL position heading into today — but I do not anymore. Small Caps are surprisingly strong, led by all various types of degenerate stocks. Ergo, I swapped out my $TZA hedge for a smaller $SQQQ.

What I did next I am partially ashamed of: I purchased a handful of longs to bulk up my net bullish position. I realize the market is down and oil is sharply higher — but I just wanted to profit real fast and quick before the eventually collapse. I swear, this is my final series of long trades ever.

I had losses of 1%, reduced down to 70bps, but now stand at -90bps. It seems my foray into the long side was a bit presumptuous for the time being. In classic Pax Americana fashion, it seems I want to have my cake and also eat it too.

On a side note, I was talking with my wife last night about taking tests as a boy fearful of whether of not I was equipped with a #2 pencil. You have to understand the context: my grandfather practically raised me and was born in 1914, was something of an artist, and had endless pencils from who the fuck knows when: the 1920s? I’d go in there armed with #3, #6 or some unmarked pencil thinking my exam was going to come out corrupted because it wasn’t the requisite #2. This was very traumatic for me, heading into pitched battle with #3 odd shaped pencils in tow, racked with uncertainty.

As I discuss fucking pencils, my entire portfolio just Titanic’d itself, now down 1.05%.

Off to triage.

The $IWM was +0.21% today and the bulls were out and about popping champagne corks into each other’s faces. Meanwhile, little did they know they’re were being had, tricked, and fooled. Tomorrow, the market shall begin an immediate descent lower — without provocation or rationale. It will just drop like a fucking lead balloon and sink lower and lower. The bulls will attempt to salvage their accounts and even average down — but by then the die would have been cast and their losses a foregone conclusion.

Gentlemen —

September is upon you and rates and oil are very high. You should be concerned, afraid even, as Pax Americana attempts to claw its way out from a shallow grave it dug for itself — weighed down by trannies and the mentally insane.

This is hell and to be long hell is in fact blasphemous. All true men of honor want this to burn — with the heat and intensity of 1 million Hiroshimas. Everything shall fall and all will be subsumed by the coming fires.

I closed +57bps — because I am a professional. Look who’s streaking to the fucking upside again.

I knew something was afoot. Look here Jack, all we’ve got here is our military technology and stock market. I’m not mad at the market — but instead hate to see it rise and used as an affirmation of their progress. I wish I could separate one from the other and I suppose a rising market benefits all, including a curmudgeon like me. NEVERTHELESS, I root for its demise — but play the side I am supposed to play to further my fortunes.

I am +51bps in a very long book, 103% exposure and about 11% in $TZA for a very small hedge. In order to get net short in a book with a beta over 1, I’d need about 30% $TZA. I am willing to do that and I see yields are up. However, let’s not be fucking stupid and acknowledge today is 9/11 and people are prone to patriotic fervor on tragic days still fresh in our memories, so perhaps it might be best to WITHHOLD shorts till the close or tomorrow.

Plus anyway, I did warn you about the oversold nature of stocks and the mean reversion algos of Stocklabs did give you 3 days to prepare.

The NASDAQ is steaming higher by 150, spearheaded by an unreal move in $TSLA thanks to some supercomputer mumbo jumbo.

For years I haven’t discussed the 9/11 attacks on my blog. I was in front of the towers in a bus en route to midtown when the first plane hit. At that time, I was the most patriotic American alive, on board and gung ho about my government exacting revenge. The whole country was united, until the democrats opposed the wars to come and then the hatred of one another began.

Looking back on that era now, the Dems were right and George Bush and Cheney was as bad as they said they were. I didn’t believe it then — because how dare you! We had Muslims in our midst, attempting to build a mosque near the rubble of the towers and my tv and movie theatres told me that bomb towing terrorists hid inside mosques en route to blowing themselves up inside random subway stations.

No group of people were more persecuted at that time than Muslim Americans and it was 100% the government policy to make Americans feel this way. I was a young man in my 20s, sharp but also an idiot — unable to see the forest through the trees. I think I see it now, but unlike then, I’m mature enough to understand I may never see them exactly perfect and not to assume anything with conviction unless through experience.

Through my experience from then till now I’ve seen my government complete a pattern wholly intent on perpetuating more wars that do not serve our national interests. I’ve seen them destroy people who opposed this narrative and demonize nations who do not bend to their caprices.

In recent years I’ve seen them do incredibly divisive things and convert the crony but benign capitalistic society I grew up in to a tyrannical spiteful autocracy, converting the once peacenik Democratic Party into statist war mongers and the war hungry republicans into peaceniks.

There is a chasm very wide between what the people of America want and what the government is doing for and to them. I have no idea what follows next — but it seems to be spiraling down the path of peak individualism and turmoil against our institutions who’ve demonstrated bad faith against the people they govern.

I used to get angry on 9/11 Anniversaries because the government used this day as cover to fake patriotism and use it to rally people for their interests. Many innocent people died 22 years ago in a series of events that appear ridiculous with the benefit of some wisdom and research. They lied about how the buildings fell and the Pentagon, that much is clear. They seem to lie about every damned thing they talk about and the saddest part about the whole thing is no one is out there trying to speak for the people anymore, which is why so many gravitate towards Trump — because fuck you.

With markets on the retreat, now is a good time to make a list of stocks on “the cheap” — because when markets eventually rebound the stocks down the most will recover the greatest.

Tera cap dealz (1MO RETURNS)

$TSM -7%, $JPM -8%, $ASML -10%, $BAC -11%, $TMO -6%, $AMD -6.3%, $NKE -11.5%, $DIS -6%, $UPS -11.5%, $UNP -8%, $BA -11%, $RY -8.5%, $QCOM -11%, $DE -7%, $SBUX -6%, $LMT -6%, $MDLZ -6%, $C -11.5%

Other shit, stocks over $5 (1mo returns)

$HE -66%, $AGTI -52%, $CUTR -46%, $MGNI -46%, $EBIX -44%, $CPSI -44%, $BIG -42%, $UPST -41%, $SSP -40%, $OSTK -36%, $PTON -35%, $MAXN -36%, $ENTA -35%, $LZ -35%, $COHR -34%, $JWN -33%, $RIOT -32%, $NIO -32%, $SYM -32%, $SKLZ -31%, $FL -30%, $WOLF -30%, $CHPT -29%, $CHWY -28%

If you’re stuck in a portfolio of shit stocks like the one’s above — you were both tricked and fooled. Just because stocks are down doesn’t mean they’re about to come back. It’s important for you fucking retards to remember that ALL MARKET crashes occur at technical weak points, not heights.

Let’s examine $GE prior to some of the worst market crashes of all time.

1929

1987

2008

2020

18-fucking-93

NOW

Be on guard for all eventualities.

I finished the sesh +44bps with a long bias, hedged at 16%. For the week, I managed a gain of +1.3% and for my quant +1.9% — which is fantastic when taking into account the Nasdaq is -1.5% and the $IWM -2.5% for September.

The quant, which is a monthly allocation driven solely by the Stocklabs algos, is heavily invested in oil stocks now. We have seen a divergence between tech and oil — which is noteworthy and something to keep an eye on.

I left a net bullish book because of the shenanigans. I am accustomed to them and expect them often. After a week of hell for traders, it would not surprise me in the least to see stocks quickly bust loose to the upside on Monday, only to later fall victim to relentless selling.

We’ve got a fucking head n shoulders happening here. Doom awaits.

Markets are bouncing today — but it’s more bullshit than anything else. Small cap breadth is sub 50% and people are jimmying stocks higher based upon rates being FLAT. Buddy — you’re gonna need a lot better than that to extricate the plebs eating canned-slop out from their housing troubles.

I know — the people in NYC are paying ALL CASH for their $5m apartments. Meanwhile, outside of the fucking lunatic asylum we have people paying 60% of their salary for rent — unable to even contemplate the concept of buying a home.

Also in the real world — Brent crude is $90 and we’re just getting started. When the sun dims and the clime chills — you will reflect upon $90bbl as a cheap bargain — something to be enjoyed at the pump. Ultimately, you’re all tax slaves to pay for Ukraine. We must, at all costs, stop Putin from becoming Hitler 2.0 and taking selfies in front of the Eiffel Tower. Meanwhile, the Russian army is having difficulty expanding their bridgehead a few miles in the Donbas. Of course we can have it both ways — eat cake and have it too.

California just announced transgender history month — the first state to recognize our medicated friends who like to dress up in Mommies clothes. I didn’t bother to look at the month they proposed — but I’m assuming October — for obvious reasons.

I’m +48bps because I am a professional. I used to do this for a living — unlike you bastards who shit-trade in between large bites out from your sandwiches. I am adding to hedges and will make sure to keep them over the weekend — mainly because it’s September, after all, and I’d really hate to miss out on a great spectacle of a market crash — traders FESTOONED all over their computers — screens painted red laden with brain matter.

Listen to me.

Stocks YTD are down, in spite of what the homosexuals tell you.

Unlike you morons, we track this shit inside Stocklabs.

Over the past year, the median return for all stocks is -3.7%. Oh, you want to see 2023, do you?

Choose a time frame you bitch.

So how is the fucking NASDAQ +39% YTD?

Because $NVDA +216%, $META +148%, $TSLA +104%, $AMZN +64%, $GOOGL +53%, $AAPL +37%

You do realize those same stocks were fucking annihilated in 2022 yes? Those gains are in fact RETARDED and if you’re buying into those returns — you yourself are RETARDED and low IQ.

Now I know what you’re going to say next.

“Oh Fly, fuck off you piece of shit. You’re always coming on here declaring the sky is falling and it never does!”

But that is not true — cunts. The sky has fallen so many fucking times since I’ve been blogging here, circa 2007. All it does is fall, recover, fall, recover etc. We have been collapsing for decades, interrupted by soaring stocks buoyed by FOMC easing. I might’ve just muddled the waters with that scattered thinking there — but believe me when I tell you nothing is copacetic.

It’s true, I want stocks to cascade lower — burying the permanent bulls in sell tickets — margin calls depleting their funeral expenses to the point of having to be cremated out of necessity. But I play ze game and pretend to go along and get super bullish when feeling gregarious.

I closed +33bps heavily hedged against my longs — haven’t lost a fucking cent since this market began collapsing again.

I think it’s important we discuss the difference between the American businessman and the government. Your average businessman doesn’t give a fuck about politics. His goal is to increase shareholder value, create a nice environ for his employees, and leave a legacy. The government by definition is PARASITIC — feeding off the businessman to fix things — solely for the purposes of getting re-elected. Since we are in late stages corrupt Pax Americana — we see government meddle much more and tend to assign our hatred to markets because of it. But remember, the progression of our civilization and tributes to the greatness of them built grand cities and things that helped people live better and longer. The government didn’t do that — you did.

The loser gets angry at successful people and rattle their fists and demand government seize their money to “give everyone else a chance.” WRONG. Even with insane levels of nepotism in America — capitalism is and always will be the best form of government. All you need to do is leave people alone and they will create wonderful things.

In America, we do not give people chances — those people need to take it — at least that’s how it used to be. I suppose now we are delving into Reverse Darwinism, rewarding the weak whilst suppressing the strong. This is why I believe Pax Americana is over. But my point remains — people good, government wholly and absolutely bad.

Bulls will point to the market and cry “we are oversold — you must buy stocks.” While I do agree, we are extended to the downside in the short term, long term we are wayyyyyy the fuck up.

The bears will point to Mitch McConnell, Biden and all of the other fucking retards and say “this cannot last — sell short now.” But to fade Biden is to vote him out — not to sell short $AAPL. I think we all get confused about that some times. This isn’t Trumpenomics or Bidenomics — this is American ingenuity.

I only wanted to say these things because they’re true and also because I regularly shit on stocks and call for their demise. This doesn’t mean I won’t still do that. I do believe the interest rate issue is a far greater calamity than Joe Biden will ever be.

Into the close, I might bulk up on secular stocks with a hedge.