FULL MARKET COLLAPSE UNDERWAY

Pardon the late blog — I have been stricken with panic at House Fly this morning and it isn’t market related. To be honest, I don’t even know why markets are CRASHING lower and I really don’t care. It’s all bullshit anyway. We understand the regional banks have collapsed and will continue to collapse. We know the economy is diving headlong into a deep recession. Hell, in Stocklabs the aggregate revenue growth is now NEGATIVE for 5 consecutive quarters.

My crisis lies in the soon to be destroyed Europe, where I will be on holiday in about a fortnight. Apparently the drunkards in Scotland will strike and decide not to drive their trains. Me being the consummate planner and miser, I booked a train from Edinburg to London and now needed to draw up a backup plan — due to the fact that my train will not be running.

Whilst many of you are RACKED with losses this morning, I am +15bps — due to some hedged and well timed circumstances. I am not even trying and I am beating you — imagine what would happen if I truly applied myself.

I don’t place much credence into down 600 Dow days because they’re mostly rigged. However, I would enjoy a nice crash, over say a cabernet — perhaps a strong year with a very nice brand.

BTC and gold are running and the world is falling apart. Let me go walk the dogs and get back to you on this later.

NOTE: We are accepting FREE TRIALS for Stocklabs for a limited time. If interested, email me at Fly@Stocklabs, or fuck off.

We are now in the final stages of the bull run — capped off with a very classic move in Chinese shit stocks. A pastiche of them have joined the soirée higher, amidst such degeneracy unseen since the COVID days when Portnoy was blowing up his account live on Twitter.

I will admit, I bought a little SXTC and BHAT — out of pure desperation. Since I am in a trading slump and I depart to Europe in about 10 days, my fear is I’ll have to vacation all around Europe whilst in a very bad mood. If in a bad mood, I might not be able to pretend to enjoy Paris.

Nevertheless, I am doing other things too, such as doling out free trial to the poors. If you want a 5 day trial to a TRANNY friendly chat room and extremely high end data platform that 99% of users don’t know how to use: email me at [email protected] and I’ll squeeze you in. I am mostly doing this to annoy my current customers, since I feel they deserve it and need to allow empathy enter in their hearts for the poors.

Best case scenario, I make 1000% tonight in SXTC and BHAT and then come on here tomorrow and boast and brag and holler at everyone with food streaming out of my mouth, most likely shrimp or some other fancy fish — washed down with champagne or some other high end liquid.

I have a right to make money just like any of you. If JP Morgan can steal FRC and immediately make billions — I should be able to do the same. Hell, I was raised to believe “you can be anything you want — even President.” Well then, I’d like to be President too.

For the balance of my day, Mrs. Fly has an array of arduous chores scheduled for me — all pertaining to cleaning and scrubbing and partaking in monotonous things that cause me to sleepwalk around the house wondering where it all went wrong.

Sirs —

After months of toiling in search of the Holy Grail — I have finally found it! I am now in possession of a Stock Market Elixir that can both EXTEND your lifespans, your penis, as well as your market returns.

The crux of the situation is, I have found it and that’s all there is to it. Barreling into today like a bloated barrel ass, I shed 70bps at the open and felt fat and slovenly — disgusting even. But under this new stratagem, I feel free and agile, thin and powerful. I bet if I tried, I could punch the head off a Mexican homeless man if I wanted to.

WHAT DOES IT DO?

It permits the quant to shift, sashay even, from growth to olde man stocks — back to growth — as it deems fit.

I don’t intend to blog here forever. Eventually, just like the rest of you, I’ll drop dead. However, the quant will persist and I’ll rig up some 500 year website hosting deal upon my death to have it continue to operate as if I were alive. I might even program it to blog in my stead and yell at my customers whenever the mood arises.

Since I’m very cold and barely know how to trade anymore, I’ve decided to open up Stocklabs to free trials with only an email required, much to the chagrin of CitizenSquared. In private text messages, he thinks you’re all scam artists and mountebanks and preferred to not give you anything at all. Me being charitable and all reminded him that to trust your fellow man is a high IQ trait, something that apparently he lacks in spades.

You’ll gain access to all of our award winning tools (I awarded myself awards) as well as my trading and quant accounts, which have been doing quite poorly the past month. Also, you’ll gain access to our trading room, which is filled with like minded liberals who are tranny allies and big fans of Bill Gates, NATO, and just about anything Dr. Fauci and Zelensky says.

If that sounds like something you might like, email me at [email protected].

The simple fact of the matter is — we have a Tale of Two markets — with the Nasdaq +21% YTD and the Russell FLAT. This wide chasm of performance has McFooled people all year, as the small plebs attempt to extract coin from low brow stocks in the face of big cappers reaching new 52 week highs.

I’ve seen these type of tapes before and it never ends up with a massive rally for the smaller capped names, but instead more of the same “Nifty Fifty” styled runs with talking heads continuing to call for the participation of the lower class stocks.

These divergence can be seen in almost every industry — with larger banks beating the shit out of the smaller, BIG PHARMA and their fancy govt mandated death shots outstripping the under-funded biotechs and money losing tech drifting out to sea whilst stocks like CRM and MSFT dominate.

My quant fund is +3.11% for 2023 and that is more or less in line with the wide array of stocks available to people — but woefully less than your standard QQQ investment scheme. To help to remedy this, starting May I will include other pools of stocks that aren’t just high growth. Whether this ends up in disaster of success is anyone’s guess and only time will tell.

For the rest of my day, I have many things to do — toils about the house — chores that must be attended to. I do feeeeeel under the weather and have felt this way since allergy season began — a large price to pay for the pleasure and joys of planting some tomatoes and making sure there aren’t any fucking weeds in the lawn.

I want to reiterate for the sake of emphasis the type of tape we are in now via showing you YTD returns.

AAPL +31%, MSFT +28%, GOOGL +21%, AMZN +25%, NVDA +89%, META +99%, TSLA +33%.

If you’re not long large American monopolies, you’re not really making money this year.

It wasn’t my month or my tape. If you’re an avid reader of me you’ll know that I go through periods of drought — not really knowing how to trade — as if I forgot how to do it altogether. Eventually I bust loose and break necks to the upside. This much is all but guaranteed. If you like to buy stocks on a dip and view me as a stock, now is a good time to buy me.

I am fixed on improving my quantitative method — but that wasn’t the reason for my underperformance.

First some stats.

Month to date losses for some of the hottest themes were rancid.

Week to date, red across the board.

Month to date, tech led lower by more than 6%, in line with my losses.

The SPY ended UP 1.37% for April — fulfilling the prophecy of a strong market for the month.

May is supposed to be almost as good.

My monthly quant shed 0.26%, which isn’t bad at all. If that is the baseline from which I am to work with, I should’ve made money via trading. But I traded poorly and took large losses in many of my hedges — as markets whipsawed from green to red back to green for most of the month.

YTD: My trading is +31%, Quant +3%

What will I change?

I upped the minimum market cap threshold for the quant to $1b and I’m also, for the first time, going to deploy a hybrid model of growth and low beta. For the month of April risk averse stocks traded up 3.6% — with 10% gains in stocks like CHD, KMB and MDLZ. I missed out on all of those because the quant only looks for growth. But starting May, I am going to choose from my growth pool down to a 3.00 tech score (1-5 range with 5 being tops), and then select from a low beta, good fundy dividend payer aka olde man stock screen of stocks near 52 week highs, and if needed the same screen but without the 52 week high filter. Ideally, the net result would permit the quant to rotate out of growth to secular and back to growth, based on technicals. This has been my dilemma with this system for quite some time and I am not certain this is the answer — but I will try it.

On May 10th, I depart for Europe for two weeks, so trading and blogging will be sparse. I intend to trade from my phone and really annoy Mrs. Fly nevertheless — because I’m addicted.

My trading sucked because markets fooled me for April. The underperformance of growth coupled with outperformance of the SPY and big divvy grandpa fuckers really caught me off guard and the lack of collapse kept me hedging and waiting for resolution. If I could do it over again, I’d likely cut my losses quicker and avoid getting sucked into very large hedges in a market that resisted going down for more than a few days.

Lastly, the Stocklabs mean reversion algorithm nailed another oversold. It should be noted, so I have done so.

I’m pretty sure we’re all organic AI BOTs, here on this flattened planet to create for whatever reason. If AI was sentient, it wouldn’t matter if it had a cool backstory like us, or simply created by programmers. If you think about it, the human body is by far the most advanced form of robotics, able to multiply and make all sorts of interesting stuff. We went from horse and buggy yo to space rockets in a hundred years and now we recreated the AI to make us even better.

Think about it.

I’m not participating in today’s tape, basically flat for the session. I’ve had a look around and can’t find anything that I liked, so I added to my SOXS hedge.

On the whole, breadth is good, rally is broad — but I can’t get over the fact that Chinese stocks like TOP and MEGL are up 800%.

Maybe later I’ll find something I like, maybe not.

On the issue of the quant hybrid model, I’m stuck on whether the low beta stocks should be near 52 week highs or not. If I only choose from the 52 week high list, I severely limit the pool of stocks available to me and if markets ever got really bad — I’d have nothing to buy.

I was spared the gallows today and netted +0.86% in what I can only describe as a reprieve — since my market hand is cold and my timing off by a few minutes. After the close AMZN posted better than expected results — but NET, SNAP, AYX, PINS, COF, ZS have collapsed.

Let me be on the record to clearly state that the numbers after the market close today are extraordinarily BEARISH. If you take out the anti-trust offender Amazon, the picture is very clear: the economy sucks.

Is it wise to infer the economic forecast by the earnings of our beloved faggot monopolies? I think not, and also beg to differ.

I kept a 15% SOXS position and loaded up on olde man stocks. If you are a long term investor and seek guidance — look towards big cap stocks with a beta less than 1, paying more than 3% dividends.

Tomorrow is Friday and I am sure you think all is gay and merry. But I warn you here and now — a great collapse is coming and it looms. Be ready for it.

I’d like very much to make some money today. If I am being honest with you, I really feel like I deserve it. I’ve been though so much and have worked so hard. It would BEHOOVE the Lord to ignore my plight and punish me with yet another bad tape.

I’d like for the market to just continue up for the balance of the session without any scary jolts — just a relaxing time and place for me to gently trade, very softly, and finish the day with joy.

I am +65bps as I write this and still have a 10% SOXS hedge, even thought it’s down 3%. Why am I still holding it? FEAR.

I am 105% long and reticent to touch anything. I do not want to be bold or conservative or anything at all. I just want to coast for a day, and then maybe coast again tomorrow. I feel I deserve a break.

Here is the ultimate dilemma with my quant. Last year it made me money only because of the war and the early gains in oil and gas stocks. Had it been an ordinary recession, I’d be totally at the mercy of markets. My dilemma is: how do I automate a trigger to either hedge or establish risk averse positions?

I think I stumbled upon an easy solution. I have another screen that fishes out low beta, fundamentally strong stocks. This screen produces stocks like CHD, PEP and SBUX — more or less risk averse names with betas under 1. Since the final arbiter of my quant picks is our technical algo, I’ve decided to edit my quant strategy to include this low beta pool of stocks too. I will first choose the strongest stocks from the growth quant and then when I run out of stocks ranked above 3 tech score, move over to the low beta. This way, in an environment where all stocks tethered to the health of the economy are getting REKT, I will automate into the comforts and safety of low beta Grandpa stocks.

I’ll keep you apprised how this plays out.

Early going BIG ZUCK over at META is saving the day. However important you might think that is, have a look at the fucking semis steered lower by LSCC. We have a pastiche of cross currents, earnings pops and drops, that is making this tape EXCEEDINGLY arduous.

Even though I am slumping, I remain steadfast in my methods and will continue to use them without deviation until the Gods favour me again. As you know, it’s only a matter of time when I appear here in my odious visage to declare “LOOK WHO’S BACK AT RECOURD HIGHS.”