18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Joined Nov 10, 2007
22,563 Blog Posts


As hard as stocks have been hit YTD, today is really adding insult to injury with absolutely mind boggling declines.

Here is a look at the bloodshed.

U -36%
KRNT -32%
COIN -30%
RCUS -28%
FVRR -25%
MSTR -23%
ADV -23%
UPST -22%
BRP -21%
TXMD -19%
NVAX -19%
CVNA -18%
AFRM -18%
RYI -17%
DISH -17%
BGNE -17%
SG -15%
SI -15%
SQ -15%
AMC -15%
BSY -14%


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I would have to admit, I fell for the imaginary bottom. I could see it all, me walking on it and then propelling myself upwards to the sky, perhaps a sojourn to the moon with some cheese and champagne. But it was not meant to be. My losses pale in comparison to yours, but they hurt just as much! I had been, earlier today, a genius. I had 100bps of gains whilst being 80% in cash, safe and secure. Feeling a bit under the weather, perhaps infected with COVID or more likely some seasonal allergies, I went to take a nap and dreamt of the Dow being +400. It felt so real. When I was awoken by dogs needing to be walked, I discovered, sadly, the market had reversed and careened lower. My aspirations were castles of sand and my dreams retarded.

I am presently down 40bps, a 1.4% reversal in fortune, because I believed. Also, I bought shit stocks in the hopes of miracles.

I’ve committed numerous errors today and it always happens from a position of comfort. I must remember the pain and how it feels to be pressed up against the swords of Damocles. My intention is to hold, only because of stubbornness. What I should be doing is liquidating now — because nothing is redeemable and everything is rot.

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It was one of those economic stats that could do no wrong. We already knew inflation was hot, but in the offchance it came in light — we’d moon.

But the data didn’t come in light and we reverse mooned into the grave. However, upon opening of the markets, we are once again rallying.

No one should care about the CPI data because it’s backward looking. At this point only three things matter.

1. The war

2. Economic growth or lack thereof

3. Commodities

The absence of sharply higher oil prices was beginning to wane on people in recent days. The idea oil could trade lower without Russian oil on the markets would equal some sort of economic apocalypse around the bend. Now with WTI +5%, we all feeeel better.

We are extremely oversold and markets act weird during periods like this, since so many people are getting wiped out. It’s rare to see markets V shape recover from such carnage. I would expect a process to take place, but at some point all of the pent up fear and loathing to turn into a different kind of fear of missing out and loathing for not buying when everyone else was selling.




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Let’s assess the situation.

The bubble has popped. All of the 30x sales stocks are back down below 10x, some a lot cheaper. This is a traditional valuation level for growth, pre 2016.

The economy is slowing but the Fed can’t help due to high inflation, measured by the CPI.

Therefore, if tomorrow’s CPI numbers comes in even a little bit better than expected, markets are going to absolutely  rip to the upside. We should soon enter a period of stability, where inflation is waning as the economy slows. To avoid earnings disasters like UPST, one could not buy stocks ahead of their results. Markets might improve during a slower inflationary period based on the notion the Fed can get less hawkish. HOWEVER, by the time summer swings around, the entire focus of the market will be on employment and economic growth. The major major concern isn’t inflation — because plunging share prices and growth rates solves that. The bigger issue down the road is economic prosperity in an environment that is deleterious to anything on par with scaleable globalized growth.

War looms and relations with east worsens daily. Ergo, take profits fast and don’t believe in bottoms.


I made 0.35% for the session, closed with 60% cash the rest long.

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This is One of the Most Oversold Tapes in Recent History


Because I built my time machine, aka Stocklabs, during the market meltdown of 2008, I can tell you with clarity how oversold we are now in comparison to then. At the session lows today, this was the 7th lowest technical reading since inception. We were nestled right around 1.00, now with the market rising we are at 1.20.

What does it all mean?


It all but guarantees a face ripping rally just around the bend. My issue with this idea, naturally, is that it’s too damn scary. I prefer the comforts of cash and view bargains as a cause for concern. This of course is psychological warfare and I am accustomed to seeing carnage on Wall Street and have been victim to heinous losses in the past, so of course I am reticent to jump right in. Nevertheless, I am comfortable with several approaches here.

  2. Buy the closes for morning bump
  3. Opt for ETFs over stocks in order to avoid earnings and/or dilutive secondaries after the bell

My preferred ETF is TQQQ, but TNA, LABU or SOXL work too. I am of the belief that markets should be avoided intraday, unless of course you enjoy babysitting brimstone. I will be buying the close, with the vast majority of my money in cash and perhaps a small allocation into consumer staples.

As for energy, I am extremely gun-shy to buy the dips in commodities. The price action is suggesting the economic fallout to come will cause a complete reversal in inflationary pressures, irrespective of Russian supply disruptions. This makes no sense to me, but this is what the market is saying.

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Tiger Global Castrated in March — Giant “Hedgefund” Now Down 44% For Year

If Tiger Global goes out of business, everyone is going out of business. The once $95b hedge fund that does not hedge but goes long lunatic tech stocks only reported a loss of 15% in March ($17b), like morons. YTD, their STACKED LOSSES are 44%, representing 2/3rds of ALL OF THEIR GAINS dating back to 2001.

Let me clarify.

The last 4 months of trading caused the gurus running Tiger to allow the market to abscond with 66% of 21 years of capital gains. DARE I SAY ‘GOING OUT OF BUSINESS SOON?’

Judging by today’s action, once again a fierce reversal and plunge, we have liquidations taking place en masse. I would not be surprised to see the likes of Chase Coleman III on the soup line over the next 3 months, as clients withdraw funds and those businesses and their losses become so obscene, it would BEHOOVE them to continue it any longer.

I have been 100% cash since 9:35am, +48bps for session.

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Feels Bottomy — Still Selling

Last night there was a heart attack panic session in cryptos, thanks to a stable coin breaking peg. BTC-ETH have since recovered. Also with it, NASDAQ futs are up 232 and part of the alleviation is the fact that Russia’s Victory Day came and went without note.

Now this morning US interest rates are plunging, down 11BPS and natural gas is down another 7%. If I didn’t know any better, I’d say this looks like it might be a short term bottom, all praise to Stocklabs for once again nailing the bottom.

I had bought TQQQ yesterday for a trade and will keep it in my algo driven account for 5 days, but am likely to sell it in my trading account. I understand why some of you might want to hold stocks, hoping this is the bottom and the upside is oh so grande. But I just can’t accept the fact that markets might be bottoming before we got the chance to see some bad unemployment numbers.

That said, PFE bought BHVN today and that might help rally biotechs. Then again, NVAX is down 25% today.

It’s a hard tape and expect more earnings shortfalls, like UPST and GDRX to unravel and have you call into question the existence of God.

For now, I’ll fade the opens and play the closes and seek to make gentlemanly returns, in this environment of stock toxicity.

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TerraUSD is supposed to remain “stable” to the dollar, as part of one of many crypto funding schemes that I will not pretend to even begin to understand. What I can relay to you now is a massive crisis happening in cryptos, stemming from this stable coin decoupling to Mr. Saylor’s MSTR now underwater on his BTC, and rumors of margin calls at his company.


This all harkens back to Tether funding schemes and now one wonders if this could happen to TerraUSD — can it happen to others?

LUNAUSD is also in collapse mode, not to mention just about every other crypto out there.

People parked money in this so called “stable coin” for security and it turned out to be a scam, on par with money markets breaking the buck. Unless they get a bailout, which I doubt, this will have lasting effects on the entire crypto space and the stable coin concept forever.

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I do believe the next big move is up. But even though I feel this way, I am not bold enough to commit much to the long side — because of the possibility of a legitimate crashing of the markets, as Pax Americana comes to an end.

Markets are beginning to price in a western LOSS in Ukraine, make no mistake about it. If not a loss, then a kinetic escalation that will be RUINOUS to EU growth. That being said, I took a 5% position in TQQQ — having gained 41bps for the session I am afforded the luxury.

I trade well during crashes because I am not naive and rarely fooled. These are the best of times for me, but my money will eventually be made on the UPSIDE of this debacle not the downside. I prefer to wade in slowly and then all at once for a great big fucking gain.

Safe havens have been eliminated in the commodity sector, which is now subjugated to the bearish winds. The only respites left are found in stocks like SJM, CLX and MDLZ.

The market is pricing in harsh economic decline. Although I am prone to agree to any and all bad news, I will admit the prognostications are PRE-MATURE and this pin action we saw today felt more forced, if anything else, as rookie son of a bitches got liquidated en masse and sent back to their mansions in the Hampton’s where they can rot out the rest of their meaningless lives high on cocaine and adderall.

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There is nothing left of your imaginary world you intended to live in. You had grande scheme to live in a virtual world, date virtual girls, wear virtual clothes. But you are now rudely awakening to the deafening sound of artillery fire and the notice of it all being over.

BTC is below $31,000 and ETH is under $2,300 and the world is in ruins.

The soft sounds of chubby bodies hitting the pavement is comforting to me, as I am well position to buy the blood and take advantage of these heart attack drops. The crypto miners that we so beloved by all, MARA, HUT, HIVE, RIOT, have gone back to whence they came and the market is telling you cryptos as an asset class is meaningless rabble. You knew it was trash when a segment of the Stocklabs ecosystem branched off like fools to talk amongst themselves about NFTs. How are your collective works of art now, pray tell me?

See, The Fly is many things, but loser isn’t one of them. Actually, I might be a loser in some departments of life, come to think of it. But when it comes to being right or wrong about investments, I reign supreme.

I do not find comfort in your pain. I would advise you to seek the counsel of others who know more, are better prepared for the fires. Men who have wrapped themselves in burlap to withstand the storms and enjoy the smell of black smoke.

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