MARKETS EAGERLY AWAIT EARNINGS FROM $NVDA

I made it out alive today, +41bps in somewhat chaotic trade. I ranged from -55bps to +71bps and closed with tepid, but ok returns. I am hedged at 15% of holdings into what the market views as the most important earnings of all time: the AI chip maker $NVDA.

I own the stock from a long time ago and have no intentions to sell — because why bother? The company is on the verge of creating a new civilization and with the profits they make — I am nearly certain my good fortunes will increase.

Overall, the markets stampeded higher by +200 NASDAQs based on the collapse of yields, -11bps. We are completely directed by the bond market now and if I was a betting man — I’d bet you’re all gonna get fucked come September.

That’s right — the gloom and doom of the Autumn beckons. With the foiling of the trees and browning of the landscape, your portfolios will soon turn to shit. My best guess is for a spirited attempt to rally into the final week of August, since the $IWM is knifed down by 6.5% for the month. But nothing can save you from the horrors that are to come.

We already know the consumer has died and with it the profits of corporate America. It’s only a matter of time before these things are priced the fuck in as you are inexorably priced the fuck out.

We’ll always have Bakhmut.

Russian news agency TASS reported PMC Wagner head Prigozhin was killed in a most unfortunate plane incident. It is also being reported by PMC Wagner that Russian air defenses shot it down, killing 10 including Prighozin.

PRIGOZHIN PLANE DESTROYED
pic.twitter.com/N0hQXTBwrY

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) August 23, 2023

Is anyone surprised? If anyone tried a coup in America, that person would be immediately killed or jailed. For whatever reason, Russia was unable to do so and opted to place Prigozhin on ice at a later date. Well, we are here and I doubt any Russian inside the leadership of Wagner will protest against this course of action.

In the off-chance all of the reports are indeed fake, well then fuck Twitter/X for fooling me.

I view this event as having minimal effects on the war and/or markets — simply an internal event in Russia or a form of justice delivered in a way understood by people in a war at the highest points in power.

Yesterday I said this:

HOWEVER, all of my machinations and opinions are somewhat gaunt in the face of a market which refuses to drop — are they not? If things or people were truly in a bad state — wouldn’t markets reflect as much? I think it’s important, especially when the news doesn’t match the action, to take a step back and trade small — to wait and see — rather than jump to conclusions. Next thing you know, bond yields tank 20bps tomorrow on some Fed speech and the NASDAQ flies +200 and everyone cries foul — how it’s all rigged and it’s a scam. The only scam is refusing to accept reality and living inside a fantasyland of your own choosing.

Today the NASDAQ is +145 and the US 10yr is down 9bps. All of the fashionable stocks are rallying and people are clamoring to get in. After all, Stocklabs is oversold and inflation is under control and US profits, in spite of what the people at $FL say, are pretty pretty good (Larry David voice).

Do you see how one day can change a perspective? It felt so right and just to be short yesterday — but today an anathema. Hence markets and sentiment — here one day and gone the next. This is nothing more than a short term game of sentiment, based upon longer term fundamentals.

After the close we have earnings out of $NVDA. I own it for my children in their trust accounts and have been tempted to sell — but why bother. I’m pretty sure they’ll mention AI 50 times and people can’t get enough. The stock is ABSURDLY overvalued — but since when has that mattered in the midst of a bubble?

BOTTOM LINE: With treasury yields plunging again, stocks have indeud become attractive. Whilst the earnings pitfalls of PTON and FL are troubling — it’s all part of an overall pattern that describes the US consumer as weak and feeble. In the past we used to place great emphasis on the consumer — but these days the economy operates on smoke and shadows — producing gigantic companies with massive troves of cash which seems to come out from nowhere.

Imagine heading into August with your pompous charts in tow, fully long stocks like $SE, $RBLX, $SQ, $NIO, $RIVN and $PLTR. You were feeling great and also laughed at how stupid Biden was because of in spite of all of that — markets just kept going up. Your glib and smirky demeanor caused you to tweet stupid shit and make ridiculous predictions based on your present experiences. Like most low IQ individuals, forecasting out into the future is a foreign concept. Those people want their $NKE kicks now and that’s all there is to it.

You should know all of the aforementioned stocks in the opening sentences of the previous paragraph are down more than 30% for the month — mere flesh wounds in a never ending and unceasing march higher. Nike is also on a RECOURD losing streak — down 8 consecutive days. The NASDAQ is down just 5.3% for the month, so you’re not scared.

But remember last year when the NASDAQ dropped 5% in August and then another 10% in September, which promptly placed the fear of the almighty into you.

I have no disillusions here. I am down 10% for August and have traded poorly. Like you, I bought into the idea that stocks would keep marching higher and it was funny to see it go up no matter the news, in spite of the abhorrent lack of leadership. But those chickens have come home to roost and JOE FUCKING BIDEN is delirious off dementia meds and Trump is fast approaching a prison cell and Russia is threatening to pierce a stake through the heart of NATO — with China in their corner as a willing and active participant.

Feel free to oppose my thinking and convince me that I’m wrong. I am willing to listen.

Let’s make a few things abundantly clear. The bank run that occurred in early 2023 was never solved. As a point in fact, it has only gotten worse. The assets on the balance sheets of banks (treasuries) are worth even less now than before. We are talking about 50-60 cents on the dollar from original basis. Also, rates are barreling up nearly every single day — making the necessity to SELL even greater.

Why sell, you ask?

Because people would prefer to open an account directly with the US treasury and get bills at 5.5%, rather than a money market at Schwab for 4.5%. Do you understand what is happening?

Today we are seeing a renewal of bank scares after S&P downgraded some banks last night. Shares of $RF $ZION $VLY and $SCHW are getting the business on the finance side today. In retail, $DKS missed and $M is always a disaster — and as such we are bearing witness to the total and complete annihilation of the sector, with names like $JWN, $W, $KSS and $VFC pitching in just to be good sports.

So we have banks and retail crushing lower whilst volatility is almost unchanged. Markets are flat and bulls keep pinning their hopes on shares of $NVDA climbing forever.

HOWEVER, all of my machinations and opinions are somewhat gaunt in the face of a market which refuses to drop — are they not? If things or people were truly in a bad state — wouldn’t markets reflect as much? I think it’s important, especially when the news doesn’t match the action, to take a step back and trade small — to wait and see — rather than jump to conclusions. Next thing you know, bond yields tank 20bps tomorrow on some Fed speech and the NASDAQ flies +200 and everyone cries foul — how it’s all rigged and it’s a scam. The only scam is refusing to accept reality and living inside a fantasyland of your own choosing.

Upon opening of the market this morning I liquidated all of my holdings, save 1 midstream oil. I later on bought TZA and now speak to you with 82% cash — +25bps for the day. I did this not due to being prescient or clever — but due to my hatred for markets. I cannot and will not let it go and I’m afraid, good Sirs, I am a permanent bear.

This doesn’t mean I won’t try the long side when the time calls for it. But what it does mean, inexorably, is that I’ll hate doing it.

The NASDAQ went from +105 to flat and quickly sinking into the ground to be buried. You’re all so worried about your 401ks and long term accounts and for good reason. For example: you are waging a war against Russia on their front yard. You also have a complete and utter jackass and moron for President and Vice President. Aside from that, your “deep state” is filled with vindictive people only driven by their spite and evil instead of good nature and duty to humanity.

The great chasm between markets and leadership is apparent. For years this market has plowed forward in spite of unbelievable interference by government. Dare I say, this last interference, making money much more expensive, is one wall that cannot and will not be scaled.

It’s over again — pack it up and head for cover.

I’ve seen this fucking show before and will not be fooled again. I closed -86bps due to hedges gone bad — but closed them out and enter tomorrow 109% long.

Now I know exactly what you’re thinking — because I’d think the same if I was a reader reading me now.

“This cocksucker is gonna get lit the fuck up. The top is in.”

But you’re probably wrong. Let me explain.

I tend to be a very streaky trader — going on 50 for 50 winning trades at a clip. Also, there are occasions, such as now, when I cannot make money to save my life. But these periods of duress always pass — quietly like a warship in the night — dreamily — en route towards its next battle. People, just like you, have come and gone to iBankCoin and talked SHIT in my comments since 2007 and have always been proven to be baboon brained jackasses. If there is one thing that I am good at, and I mean really good at, it is this.

I’m more than 10x my money since late 2021. When you read my blogs — just know and try to understand that I am already several steps ahead of you — if not more.

But what if markets careen lower and I get cleaved for another 2 or 3% tomorrow? Well then that would conclude my expedition into the jungles of the markets for August 2023. I would be forced to resign from duty and regroup for September.

Big losses always start small and those small losses always become big by believing in an ideal rooted in ego. My ego isn’t tethered to being a bull or a bear — but my ability to sashay to and fro based upon the whims and caprices of my instincts.

I will see you fuckers tomorrow.

Just quick afternoon update for you fucks who are permanently long.

I’ve been doing this a very long time and I even built mean reversion algorithms to time markets. I remind you of this to separate the chaff from the wheat. We are not the same. Having said that, I mentioned a week ago that Stocklabs had flagged oversold — but if we started to “cluster signals” it could be the preceding elements of the apocalypse.

The character of this market has been to sell down all rallies and this doesn’t conform with a bullish tone or tenor. I will tell you this now — if markets do not bounce after today — it’s 100% over. I am hoping we do bounce a little, in order to assuage longs back into the building so we can burn it down later. But if we collapsed now — I would not offer protest.

At the heart of this tumult are treasury yields. We are +9bps to 4.33% and markets are screaming HELP to an obstinate Fed. We have not gone down yet. The fact that stocks have held it together up until now is admirable and shorting a market that defies logic is usually a reason to be long.

The divergence between small and large cap is a wide chasm today, +0.6% v DOWN 0.7%. My best guess is for stabilization and an attempted rally in the late afternoon or tomorrow. HOWEVER, I am open to suggestions and should we flop and flail and flounder, you will rue the day you chanced upon this eloquent prose and decided to ignore my most dire warnings.

You have been warned.

Here is a day hand-spun directly from the devil himself unto my trading screen. Mega caps are up, but smalls are down. Oils were up, but now sinking. The US 10YR is defying every notion of normalcy and is now SOARING +10bps to well over 4.3%. We have the NASDAQ +76 with overall breadth in the 40% range and my person DOWN 1.45% for the session.

I won’t beat myself up too much about it since this is something crafted by celestial beings meant to be malevolent. I will say that the US 10yr and rates in general are pretending as if Biden had not already defeated inflation. Dare I say the FOMC has another 100bps in them before they can subside these pressures?

To make matters worse, the Dow Jones is -175. That might be a meaningless piece of information to the uneducated reader class of investor — but it’s important too. It means industrial powered stocks, aka risk averse old man stocks, are getting hit too. In other words, if you’re not long TSLA, NVDA or FANG stocks today you’re getting drilled — which is terribly demoralizing. You might feeeeeeel as if the world is ending and everything you do is wrong and that it’ll never get better. This is also not true. The sun will rise again and the blue birds will chirp and sing and drift atop the meadows shitting on the snails below. There will be better markets where you and I can laugh heartily with mouths filled with food — good food and not that shit you buy at the gas station. We will eat steaks and drink wine and order our wives to “fetch us some ale” and be happy — because stocks had gone up and we increased the digital value of our online accounts that we’re building for the “long term” to do something grand with. Maybe we can buy a beach house, or maybe a ranch. That’s right, we can become ranchers — just like Rip from Yellowstone and slap people around and take them on train rides and dump them off when they get out of line.

The good life is ahead lads. Do not give up on these ideas.

Yes, it really is over. I should just end the blog here. But since I feel like writing, I’ll jog on.

First stats:

MTD losses

QQQ -6.66%
IWM -7.1%

YTD gains
QQQ +34.5%
IWM +5.8%

If you just ignore the robber baron’d Nasdaq and looked at the overall pastiche of the market — according to Stocklabs “all stocks” are up 0.05% this year. Areas of the market stuck in a bear market include the following:

Auto parts -28%
Drug Stores -28%
Solar -27%
EV Charging -27%
Cannabis -22%
Banks -20%

Fortunately, the stocks that have risen are mostly larger capped and/or high volume trading stocks that trend on socials, which has helped investors pick better in 2023. If I had to guess, I’d bet people are doing well in 2023 in spite of the overall gloomy outlook.

For the month, however, we are seeing a much different tone to the tape — as all stocks are getting lit up again.

Month to date, the only real large cap stocks doing well are LLY +20%, VRT +30%, TPL +26%, $X +22% and a sundry of bric or brac. The fact of the matter is, and this is not broadcasted on the tele for your viewing, NATO is losing the war in Ukraine. This has been my assertion all year, in regards to the positive or negative direction of markets.

When NATO appeared to be giving Russia problems, stocks rose. Now with the Ukrainian offensive bogged down and mired in massive losses — the neocons are elevating the conflict and bringing us another step closer to direct conflict with Russia.

The neoliberal/con idea from day 1 has been to neutralize Ukraine in the least expensive place in Europe, in order to prevent them from attacking all the way to Paris. These people have Hitler on their brains 24/7 and keep Saving Private Ryan on loop in their disgusting homes. Taking out a mostly white and orthodox Christian nation is of course on their bucket list. To do it inside another white orthodox nation is like hitting the lottery for them.

Alas here we are again, with the worst people to ever walk on American soil pressuring the geriatric to commit more US resources into Ukraine for the express purposes of “Stopping Putin.” I’m afraid because of our actions the past year plus, we might very well be past an amicable negotiated settlement and have created an eternal enemy who now just wants to see the NATO/American hegemony end aka Pax Americana.

With this ending, you can rest assured stocks will not like it one bit. A loss in Ukraine now, after going all in against what the world views as close to a peer power, is a humiliation. The people who operate our shitholes are accustomed to inflicting humiliation rituals onto others, not receiving them.

I hope you can appreciate the perceived danger here, with flawed and weak men/women leading us out of spite and malice instead of grace.