THE FUCK BIDEN TRADE IS BACK ON

It’s a long lost dream of mine to see oil go so high, people are forced to ride horse and buggy again. Imagine the empty roads, and desolate streets filled with HORSE SHIT. It would be an honor to preside over a market down, say 5,000 points, and oil up 15% — give or take. The ultimate FUCK JOE BIDEN trade is exactly that — a dream of seeing inflation rip the old man’s head off (in Minecraft) and the market so low the exchanges close for lunch on a daily basis due to disinterest.

But we do not always get what we want, do we? Oil is lower, with the market, and the only facet of the market that is up are risk averse stocks, such as TR (read my books).

The market is different, but also in many ways exactly the same. People run out with high hopes and good spirits and come back looking like World War 2 Vets in their 90s. This is not a playground for the weak and I see it all the time with Stocklabs members canceling the fuck out, either due to some sort of transexual surgery needed, pissed off at me or someone else inside the Pelican Room for “hate speech”, or a simple case of zeroing the fuck out in a cloud of hubris and stupidity.

Whilst I sometimes exhibit my own bouts of wanton stupidity, I am almost never in a cloud filled with it. I have too much going on, too many brain cells operating at all times, to succumb to folly for an extended period of time.

The market looks dreadful today, almost the exact opposite of yesterday. This is the tape of killers and bank robbers; be careful out there else you’ll be on the receiving end of a margin call or two and/or sudden desire to cut your dicks off and become a lady of the night.

Allow me to vent. I know this will sound like a whining bitch, but I have to get it off my chest.

The PPI numbers made stocks rocket this morning and I was net short. My losses stood at 3.5% at the open and stabilized from there. I methodically kept buying SQQQ throughout the day up until the news of a Russian missile landing in Poland hit. I then LOBBED ON some UVIX in size and other shorts and saw my losses TRANSMORPH into gains, if only for a brief period. I had all of the ww3 stocks in hand: UVIX, SQQQ, WEAT, ERX. I was ready.

Then news hit that the missile might’ve been some fucking debris from a Ukrainian S300 missile that intercepted the Russian one. The news was conflicting, since PMs from Latvia and Estonia were talking EXTREME shit about wanting to take action and invading Moscow with their Toyotas. Then Zelensky weighed in on behalf of NATO and said “this shit can’t stand — we need to attack!” I am paraphrasing here.

ALL OF A SUDDEN, I become fucked. My grandiose UVIX position melted away like a snowman in the summer and my gains deepened and went all the way back to session lows at -3.3%. I was helped along the way down as I attempted to catch lightning in the bottle with cartoon size triple upside and downside ETFs, but I almost always nailed the exact top of the range, sending my pink levels through the roof.

I kept the UVIX and even added to it into the final hour. I had, all of a sudden, found myself with an EXTREMELY net long book because the news was fake and the missiles weren’t real and no one listens to the cunt from Estonia anyway. I felt good being on the team. I was net long into Thanksgiving after all. Sure, I missed the entire rally, but “at least I’d catch the tail end”, is what I thought.

Then doomed caught a second glance and stocks continued lower with verve into the bell. I suddenly found myself almost FLAT on my UVIX position, after having been down 5% on a 33% sized position. Bear in mind, I almost always keep these position sizes at 5%. The fact I was at 33% demonstrates how incredibly desperate I became, in my facile attempts at regaining lost ground.

I suddenly felt a punch land across my jaw, knocking my jaw loose. I looked around to see who just punched me clean and realized I had punched myself. I closed out the UVIX position for a nominal loss and carried ERX, SQQQ and FNGU into tomorrow — 44% cash — DOWN 2.53% for the session.

Take from this what you will. I can only tell you I felt brilliance and stupidity on a large scale within myself all inside of 1 hr. It’s funny how the market can make you feeeeeel like that.

Ciao.

We’ll need to verify this, but early reports indicate a stray Russian missile hit a grain facility on the border of Ukraine inside Poland. This comes after Russia launched its largest barrage of cruise missiles against Ukraine, more than 200 by some counts, into what will be the first frost of the season — with temperatures expected to drop to 15 in Kiev by tomorrow.

Polish Grain Dryers

An attack on Poland is supposed to trigger article 5 for NATO, which of course would mean World War.

https://twitter.com/The_Real_Fly/status/1592542107000082439?s=20&t=b1z3G28Ip1Ewjuxzs9uu_w

KIEV POWER OUTAGES REPORTED pic.twitter.com/khrCBzJRYR

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 15, 2022

And here’s what Russian media has been saying.

RUSSIAN TV ON RECENT SETBACKS IN UKRAINE pic.twitter.com/kVfKluvnj4

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 15, 2022

Yesterday at around 3:34pm I thought it was a good idea to sell my longs in favor of an all in short position. I was instantly rewarded, which made me feel good and caused me to end the session without fear. Today those positions were sent into the pits of hell, led by FNGD and SOXS — causing me to believe, emphatically, that I’m either a complete and total moron or simply cursed.

I was forced to sell out of both SOXS and FNGD, since those were where the pain Lied strongest but I still own a plethora of inverse and I even had one long in BOIL, which was discarded as utter trash — probably the only asset down today.

In just one day, I’ve managed to ruined what was an otherwise lackluster and underperforming month. Now I’m no longer just underperforming but absolutely retarded, short into Thanksgiving. How many times do I need to yell at myself to finally get the point?

There’s no hiding here on these internets and I certainly do boast and brag about my achievements when I have them. The Fly is completely finished this time and to be honest — it was a good run. I’ve managed through all sorts of crisis and made money in every single one, including 2022. But the facts are laid bare: down during the month of Turkey and gravy because of greed to the downside. I suppose I thought the SPY deserved to be down more than 17% this year based upon all of our issues. Apparently, I was wrong and inflation has been stopped and a soft landing…enjoyed!

I tried to be a bull for a few hours. I even put a NATO flag outside my door to blend in and join the club. But it grated at my dark soul and I could not bear it more than a few hours. I had losses of -115bps until I spazzed the fuck out at 3:30 and totally reversed course and cleaned out all of my longs and went all in short, reserving 45% in cash.

The subsequent result was immediate reward, as my losses reduced from -115bps to -36bps, a benign day in the scheme of things. But it was more than that, making such a drastic change in bias. I have now placed myself in a concrete bear bunker and will be shooting at people trying to celebrate their stock winnings during the Thanksgiving festival. There will be no retreat from this position, unlike the Russians at Kherson. I will die upon this hill, knowing I stood against the morons who thought it was a good idea to lever up long in mid November as the SMH was already +17%.

My only long is BOIL, based upon the news that Europe is predicting a mild winter.

MOLTO BENE.

At times I get obsessive over this or that, delving into rabbit holes and coming out with clothes torn and face blackened by the journey. Since the beginning of the year I have been PERMANENTLY BEARISH, based upon a sundry of factors now worth repeating. Due to this disposition, I have escaped one of the worse bear markets in recent history and have achieved a great return for my troubles. However recently, I have stubbornly ignore one of my own cardinal rules: never short into Thanksgiving.

The SMH (Semis) are up 17% for November. The idea that there is even MOAR left in this rally makes me physically sick and makes me want to vomit onto the faces of bulls. NEVERTHELESS, I am going to regulate my emotions and trade with my mind, ignoring my body and soul.

Up until National Festival, the day we invested Turkey and stuffing dinner, I will be BULLISH. This means that on declines I will buy more. This also means I shall not sell short. In other words, I will simply trade around murderholes, should they appear instead of selling short into them. I feeeeeeeel I need to cleanse myself of habits that have more or less resulted in LACKLUSTER trading results the past 6 months (returns are near 0) and I cannot in good conscience be a bear into “we stole your land, what will you do about it day.”

FULL DISCLOSURE: The previous cunts at Twitter would never verify iBankCoin or my twitter handle, in spite of numerous fakes who attempt to dupe people with sordid scams. Whilst iBankCoin might not be a reputable as say CNN, we are what’s deemed to be “A Reliable Source” as per a United States court of law. Being the most prolific financial blogger alive, you’d think the previous cunts would offer me a little small blue check mark, in order to help me feeeeeel better about myself — but no — CUNTS WILL BE CUNTS.

But with the new Twitter, run by Elon Tesla, I was able to purchase my little blue checked mark for iBankCoin. I didn’t do it for myself — because that would be retarded and also FUCK TWITTER. Nevertheless, the point remains, we are now a respectable outfit. Show some God damned respect around here.

Albeit, and truthfully, I feel like a 19th century salesmen who just jimmied his way into high society buying balcony seats at the opera house — plying people with large diamonds and telling exaggerated stories about how my lower middled class family actually were decedents of Kings or even Warlocks — depending on my audience. Nevertheless, and my point being, the new Twitter is far more my speed — more of a Wild West shoot ’em all dead before finding out it was just a caravan of priests after the fact.

A new source of entertainment has emerged in the form of trolls taking out fake accounts, verifying them, and then tweeting some shit to humiliate corporations or persons of power. Here is a few I grabbed and I get the feeling Mr. Mars is going to somehow put an end to this chicanery soon, so enjoy it while it lasts. Twitter blue has been placed on pause and is supposed to come back next week.

Last night the entire FTX client list was hacked for their money, sending all account balances to zero. More than $600m was stolen and since then a sundry of details have implicated a Mr. Samuel Bankman-Fried with potential fraud.

FTX HAD LESS THAN $1 BILLION IN LIQUID ASSETS VERSUS $9 BILLION IN LIABILITIES – FT
FTX CEO SAM BANKMAN HAD BUILT A BACKDOOR IN THE FTX ACCOUNTING SOFTWARE THAT LET HIM MOVE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OUT WITHOUT TRIGGERING ANY AUDITS TO OTHER STAFF AND AUDITORS

And now it appears Sam is on the loose, taking his gas guzzling private jet from his hovel in the Bahamas to an undisclosed locale in Argentina.

### SAM BANKMAN-FRIED IS ON THE LOOSE, STILL AT LARGE ### pic.twitter.com/RxKwQ6rSUB

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 12, 2022

Here’s a video of Sam, showing how very generous he is with other people’s money. Note: Sam was the SECOND LARGEST donor to democrats, second only to the cunt himself: the immortal George Soros.

JFC
pic.twitter.com/4kOLNYUUSg

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 12, 2022

Piece of shit

And here is a snippet from an article written by the CUNTS at Sequoia who invested in FTX, thinking he was going to be a trillionaire. The article itself was purged from their website, but I found an archive.

The most remarkable two paragraphs ever written in human history pic.twitter.com/41CNXS6hq2

— Phil Bak ? (@philbak1) November 12, 2022

Lastly, the CEO of Alameda, closely affiliated subsidiary of FTX.

Someone had warned about FTX months back, accusing FTX of spoofing BTC from $28k to $69k in order to donate to political campaigns.

I am dropping the towel.

They may came from industry of finance.
I come from an industry of cyber-security.
You crossed my field.
Next time when you want to spoof the market from 28K to 69K for your political lobby think twice. https://t.co/Q9n0ebBRy0 pic.twitter.com/8DhT2U5G2p

— ? | Bear Baron Spawn | (@hellspawncrypto) May 14, 2022

I managed to lose money this week, off by 1.6% — now sitting FLAT for November. When I juxtapose this nothingness against the fact the SMH is +16.6% for the month, all gains achieved entirely this week with Semis ripping ahead by 17% from Monday-Friday, I am chagrined.

These are the areas of the market that are bountiful.

It’s also worth noting the SMH gains are of a historical nature, only surpassed a handful of times with 2002 +22% being #1. I’d argue the upside in in fact LIMITED for the semis here; but who will listen?

It was all fun and games until the CPI print caused stocks to jump 1200 and I had been, and always have been, positioned SHORT. I didn’t get my brains squeezed to hell because I react to the  event, sometimes too quickly for my own good. There are bastards out there nailing every turn and providing their accounts with gains in both up and down tapes. At times, I am able to do that as well; but not recently. I underperformed last month, making just 3.33% and I lost 4.4% in Sept. Before that I was +3.4% in August and and July -3.8%. It is accurate to say I have done NOTHING for the better part of 6 months, as I spun my wheels indecisive and unsure as to a direction to commit to. The reason for this is as plain as day: markets looked like hell up until the CPI print. We are in a continuous state of crisis, only buoyed by these news events, and almost always we renew crisis mode and continue a cycle of grind house until all market participants and shattered to pieces.

I closed 119% allocated, mostly high quality longs hedged by TMV, DRV, and UVIX — which is a play on higher rates. Should rates go higher as we reflate and oil shoots up? Absolutely.

In closing, another SHIT-FILLED week for yours truly, down 31bps for the day, with a range of +28bps to -85bps. I am no longer grateful for maintaining my 50% YTD gains because too much time has elapsed for me to continue with that line of thinking, which brings me to my next conclusion. I will be providing a greater conviction to my bias next week, accomplished by minimal hedges and cash. If I am to become shattered to pieces across the rocks and fish, so be it. But this static do nothing phase of my personal investing has bored to be death and I can only imagine how some of you feel out there, semi-retarded cro-magnons, depending on me for ideas only to return back with your principle all the while gains of a ribald nature sashay too and fro your large nose.

I will make amends inside Stocklabs, starting next week. PREPARE TO BLOW THE FUCK UP or become a man of independent means.

Into the final weeks of November, when the gravy is rich and thick, fat faced Americans like to buy stocks — because they are greedy and callous and uncaring about the poor bears. Whilst you might believe this rally to be long in the tooth, there is a strong chance the prices you see before you today will in fact be MUCH HIGHER by next week.

There isn’t any logic or reason for that theory, other than the fact there seems to be more buyers than sellers now.

Risk averse stocks are being woodshedded and risk is on in a most serious way.

I am NOT partaking in the rally, aside from my Quant, which is PERMANENT BULL — because I am a PERMANENT BEAR at heart and truly and seriously want to see the world, all of it, burn.

That being said, I had traded back to positive an hour ago and have since SQUANDERED it and now find myself, once again, with nominal losses.