REMINDER: DO NOT BE FOOLED

We’re all being assuaged by the pastoral views of SHITCOINS and HEAVY SOUR CRUDE galloping higher with the wind behind it. What you see is the beauty. What you do not see, as they gallop into the sunset, they leave with it a wake of shit. If you chase them you will soon find yourselves knee deep in it and soon enough drowning in it.

BEAR WITNESS! to RIOT and MARA higher by 20% and feeeeeeel envy as you glance at the screen, thinking you might deserve such niceties — since after all you are fully vaccinated and compliant to all of the requests made of you from your state. Try your hand now and find out soon it was never a real rally but a mirage — with only shit left on the floor for you to loiter in.

I have just 3 stocks now: MOS, CLF and PTON. The latter I am long because THE STATIONARY BICYCLE COMPANY is single digits and the wall of worry is enormous and the plebs will SOP IT UP and push it over $10 soon.

All that aside, I am not a believer and will be hedging into the close.

We are across the board melting up in all asset classes. Some people believe Russia will be winding down operations soon, once they’ve taken all of Donbas. This of course is not confirmed, but the specter of it might be enough to lend some confidence to the permanent bulls. Who, by the way, do not need any more of that.

But I don’t think traders are ever thinking about the war or anything else for that matter. We are in melt up mode for all asset classes, especially cryptos. ETH was just in the 900s and now nearing $1500.

What to make of all this? Look at WTI up 5 while at the same time retail is ripping tits to the upside clean off.

What do I think?

I think it’s fucking bullshit. I got lucky being 100% long heading into today, so I moved to cash, bought 3 more stocks, one of which was SHOP and I have since sold it for +3.5%, and now I am sitting here angry for no reason at all +1.35% and 90% cash.

I’m angry for a number of reasons, the biggest one is a dysfunctional childhood. My adulthood has been going fairly orderly and I am looking forward to my older years on the tennis courts pulling hammed strings.

Back to stocks: I’ll allocate later on this afternoon. We are now OVERBOUGHT on Stocklabs and this might not be the end of the rally. You know how the bulls get when they get that exuberance going.

OMG how did I miss out on the rally bro?

The NASDAQ shed 1% last week, reinvigorating the bulls into believing a summer rally is in the books. For the month of July, we are up 2% after being pummeled into dust for 30% since February. The stated case for a rally is such: the inflation has been defeated. The American wonder weapon called “HIMARS” is decimating the entire Russian army. The liberal world order is going to be gayer than ever.

On that backdrop, I am of course ALL IN LONG with no hedges. This is classic retardation on my part and how small losses envelope me into large ones. The most likely scenario will play out like this:

FUTURES WILL GAP THE FUCK LOWER on Monday, causing me to sell everything and watch in horror. The market will then REVERSE higher without me in it, causing my pink levels to rise to 10,000000000%. I will not get back to winning until I simply shut the fuck up.

Then I might get the wise idea to “do the opposite” and do nothing — simply watch the market steal my money — resigning myself to fate. This also would be a disastrous decision, as FUTURES WOULD GAP THE FUCK DOWN and not reverse up but instead PROCEED lower in a panicked fashion.

The only way to combat such chicanery is to simply reduce my positions INCREMENTALLY whilst at the same time applying hedges. This is going to be a delicate process; but if I am right and my timing on point — I just might be able to bust loose to the upside again.

Everything is rot. All sectors are an abomination. Nothing is redeemable.

Have a happy Saturday.

What the fuck do I know? Not much, apparently. Ergo, and this goes without saying, I STEPPED IN LIKE A FUCKING LUNATIC MADMAN and bought a bunch of stocks. And get this… I have no fucking idea where the market is going next. Might go up, might go down. I look at the IWM chart and think to myself — “this is open to interpretation.” It can go either way. Then I look at my returns for the week, DOWN 7.1%, and I think to myself “what the fuck do you know anyway — just go long.”

Sure I am still +43.6% for 2022 and yes I will eventually fall back in sync with the market, at which point I will be talking so much shit you’ll have to log off the internet to avoid get some on your face.

I know that I am better than this. Truth is, I just really really wanted to see PAX AMERICANA end now, but it seems this type of ordeal will take longer than originally expected.

Now I drift off into the weekend very angry and upset with myself. I will not drink — because I have rules and one of them is “never drink when upset”, otherwise you’ll become a boozehound and die like a loser — at the end of a barrel or inside one.

Instead, I will now begin to toil. Mrs. Fly is in hyper-fixate mode with the house and she has a long and rich laundry list of well thought out chores for me to partake in. I will take brief interludes for snack and nourishment, rest for 5 hrs, awaken and toil some more. By Monday I will be back on my game, angry as fuck, revenge trading because what else is there to do?

Aw shucks, poor baby Fly is crying again because his stupid portfolio made of shit is taking on water again — WHAAAAA WHAAAAA. It looks like the Braggard In Chief of Fintwit is finally over. It was a good run from 2007 until now. The perma bulls finally cornered me and shot me dead.

Here I lie in ruins, down 1.6% today, OFF BY 7% for the week, DOWN BY 5.8% for the month. The vision that I sold you on, black smoke and bustling shards of metal, have went up in smoke and replacing it are penis shaped hot dogs at PTLO. We are all very boisterous now, even after Pride Month, flamboyantly strutting about fashionably in Gucci garb — showing those Russians who’s boss.

We don’t need oil — it’s hot outside. Take that you slavic animals.

Surrendering to the market forces and my deluge of losses, I have parted ways with my FAZ position, but kept onto SQQQ at 20% weight for sentimental concerns. I have also festooned my portfolio with George Soros friendly stocks in the hopes that the cabal will be pleased with me now, seeing I am now on their side, and bless me from their space crafts with plentiful bounty.

I can tell you great things are now in store for me and the recent foray into loss has now ended. There is nothing at all that could go wrong, seeing me buy into the rally on a Friday afternoon in front of what is going to be yet another splendid week.

I have 25% cash and although tempted to buy penis shaped hot dogs with them, I have a good enough presence about myself to withstand the urge and preserve said King Dollars for a rainy day.

Let me tell you something Jack, it has been raining something awful around here this week — and I haven’t had the luxury of an umbrella. Just little old me walking in the lightening storm with a metal rod in hand — hoping to catch fire.

News of SENTOR MANCHIN telling fellow democrats to fuck their own mothers over a new climate spending bill is ravaging the entire welfare solar industry this morning.

Perhaps less people will place those odious looking black panels on their rooftops now, courtesy of in-generous government subsidies. You’re just gonna have to save the planet on your own dime, you son of a bitch.

Aside from that misfortune, the market is real fucking fine this morning, except if you’re really into broad market allocations. If you’re into that sort of shit, the market looks like this for you today.

But if you’re only long Amazon and fellow FANG stocks, you’re feeling great today, a truly fine day at the olddddddddddd permanent bull office.

Inflation has collapsed, according to the University of Michigan, so you have that working for you too.

The Nasdaq is up more than 100 and Fed’s Bullard is very blasé this morning regarding Fed rate hikes, casually suggesting they might do 75 or even 100bps: makes no difference on the margins. See, they’re gonna first defeat Russia, then inflation, in that order. Then we’ll visit mars in a solar powered space craft and after mars we’ll land on the sun and sashay on it, just like we did the moon back in ‘69, using tin foil and a calculator to get there. It’s all so obvious what’s taking place here and the plan has been made, and it’s solid.

Have a nice little gappy gap up to start your morning off.

Shorts are fucking doomed.

Look at these piece of shit numbers out of China.

Nothing seems to stop the upward surge of stocks, as fuckheads are trying to push the market up in July for a 15th consecutive year.

Nasdaq futs are +55 and China is up. It doesn’t fucking matter what the news is, sons a bitches will not sell their stocks, save SHOP.

NASDAQ futures, in a just world, would be down 500 tonight. But they’re not so assume Joey Cocaine from the Hamptons will bid semis up tomorrow in yet another ploy to walk stocks higher.

I knew this shit was gonna happen. And you must be thinking ‘Fly, if you knew it was gonna happen, why didn’t you prevent it?”

BECAUSE I’M A FUCKING MORON.

The losses continue — down another 1.75% for the day. Everything I did turned to mush. I let a big gain in SQQQ slip away, forcing me to double down on the bet heading into what will probably be a monster rally. Today was all about the biggest piece of shit stocks on the planet rallying: pot, low end electric cars,  crypto miners, and fucking Trump’s DWAC. Later on the semis jumped into the orgy and we all had a fucking blast.

The oils were again KNIFED into the fucking face lower, alongside my BTU. Nuclear stocks rose because I didn’t own them. Basically, everything I owned bid lower and shit I didn’t own higher. I was going to buy CLVR when it was flat but opted for a little more SQQQ and CLVR soon rose 40%.

It’s obvious what is going on here, the Stock Gods are fucking with me and I am now cursed. My losses are STACKING, down almost 4% for July, while the NASDAQ is up 2% for everyone else who is long. I am still fighting the trend, hoping and praying for destruction, when the market is like “who gives a fuck” and is bidding higher. No matter the news, the market wants higher.

What can I do?

Not much fucked face. I’d like to say “give in and go long” but it’s not that simple. The rallies are not broad, but instead laser focused on different areas every day. I’d argue that cash is the best option in periods of uncertainty or coldness, but I of course will not heed such sage advice and will continue my crusade of stubbornness until I win or get totally destroyed.

I had 10% of my book in FAZ heading into today and another 10% in SQQQ because fuck the banks. Even with that allocation, I am down 1% today — mostly due to positions in energy/coal getting hammered — amongst other things. The problem here is believing.

Look at the market now, bid up from the lows. It would be very easy to jump in and say “OMG STOCKS ARE GONNA CLOSE GREEN AREN’T THEY” right now, only to be summarily executed into the closing bell.

The market cannot rally without banks.

The buy retail when oil drops trade isn’t working too good.

The macro headwinds are accelerating.

Do you see what the fuck I am saying here?

It’s over. The only reason to hedge is fear and/or concern for volatility. When I say hedge I mean hedge shorts with longs. This is a SHORT ONLY tape, regardless of what AFRM is doing today.

We have a rally going intraday- as is always the case following a morning dump out. The trade here is to begin ADDING to shorts as the market rises and then sit back and wait for the inevitable sell off.

Just when you thought it was safe, the fucking banks collapse and your world view turned upside down.

JPMorgan Chase earnings fell 28% after building reserves for bad loans, bank suspends buybacks

JPMorgan earnings fell short of analyst expectations as the bank built reserves for bad loans by $428 million.

Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon warned geopolitical tension, high inflation and waning consumer confidence could hurt the economy “sometime down the road.”

Banks down 3%, only couched by the fact that Jamie Dimon had great things to say about the financial state of the consumer.

Morgan Stanley also missed today based off investment banking revs down 55% YOY.

Morgan Stanley took a $101 million provision for credit losses, up from $73 million a year ago

Cisco was downgraded today too based off slowing of enterprise business. These macro headwinds are having a deleterious effect on oil. It’s 100% over now — smooth and swift decapitation ahead.