Oil Spikes As War Breaks Out in Israel — A Look Back to the Yom Kippur War

Back in 1973 during the Yom Kippur war, which started just 1 day before this one, the price of oil quadrupled after Middle East state cut supplies and embargoed export. Tonight the price is +4% based off fears that Iran can be on the table for war — as the connections between the Hamas attack into Israel point to that direction.

It’s worth noting, $XOM traded up 1% in October of 1972, while stocks like $DIS and $F dropped more than 10%. The overall market was barely down when the war broke out — but it absolutely fucking plunged in the following month, with the $SPY dunking by more than 10%.

In November of 1973, shares of $DIS Mcplunged by 37%, $IBM -5.4%, $DD -14%, and $F -19%.

Given the already tenuous state of markets, I’m afraid this could be the catalyst to cause a fucking rout.

NASDAQ futures are -90, which is child’s play compared to what could be coming. I expect this war to be different from previous Israeli wars, such as 2006. You could expect to see it get ugly, as support for total war increases thanks to the malevolent nature of this conflict and seething hatred between Israel and the Palestinians. Will Hezbollah and Iran get involved — potentially drawing in US forces into the fray?

One thing is clear, the Ukrainian war is a catalyst for this action, since the US is bogged down supplying Ukraine with munitions. It would be incredibly difficult for the US to supply a protracted war against both Iran and Russia without first initiating war powers for production to mobilize military procurement 10-20x current levels. In no way is the west prepared for a long term conflict and I am not so sure Israel is ready for it either, even though I have no doubt their morale is very high and passions running extremely hot. If we learned anything from the Ukraine war — it is that modern warfare neutralizes many aspects of traditional post ww1 warfare, with drones and anti-tank / anti-aircraft missiles proving highly cost effective deterrents that bogs down elements of all armies on the field.

I entered the arena heavily long, thinking BEAR MEAT was on the menu. Joe Biden’s NFP numbers scared me off — made me cower in my book of longs and provoked me to quickly EVACUATE markets and hedge. The heart attack drop at the open coupled with the early morning recovery caused me to look introspect and ask myself: do you want to be associated with these people?”

The answer was and is inexorably no — so I began a campaign of selling short the single best sector in the market: the semiconductors. I swooned into them and methodically added more to it as the time passed. As markets gained a footing, I hedged against my burgeoning shorts with some longs, rentals if you will. I sold most of them for profit — and kept adding to the semiconductor short, which was bound to make me a great fortune.

By mid-afternoon, markets began to take on a pornographic undertone, as the hedonists jumped out of their outer garments and buy stocks and take advantage of all of the deals. Once again, I looked inward decided that I’d hold the line and begin a crusade against the semiconductor longs — perhaps dedicate my life to it and work tirelessly to disrupt their schemes. I had increased the size of my shorts to 15.5% of my overall portfolio — selling all of my longs — leaving me naked in front of a cast of perverts, degenerates, and mountebanks.

As the final hour came upon me, I had visions of the future — dark clouds and plumes of fire billowing atop the charred remains of the sinners. I bought an array of longs near 52 week highs and then bought a 15.5% sized position in $TZA in addition to my $SOXS making me King of the Bears.

Alas, this story didn’t end the way I wanted and my passions ran cold 2 mins to the bell, when I closed out my semiconductor shorts and plans to dedicate my life in a crusade against them — taking a $10,000 loss in the process. It all seemed very maudlin to me, as I reflected upon the scotch I was about to ingest.

I did keep the $TZA, and some longs, 46% cash to play with on Monday. For the week, I made +0.17% — much better than the overall market — but not on par with the excellence in trading that I’ve been accustomed to ever since I decided to take up the avocation when I was just 10 years old.

Into next week and beyond, I look forward to increasing my courage and the overall conviction of my bias — which is, at the moment, grotesquely indecisive.

I gave it the olde college try, went fully long stocks and was in the rainbow themed parade with the rest of the transgendered bulls — but was disgusted by what I saw and left immediately.

I had only one small hedge, which was SHORT TREASURIES, because Pax Americana is over. Much to my chagrin, at the open of trade my PNL plunged to the tune of 0.75%, so I quickly bought a 20% weighted $SQQQ position and then shot all but one of my longs.

I’m now happy to report my losses are just 19bps for the session, which is a statement itself disgusting. It’s like saying “I only got mugged 3 times living in the big city and my wife and I really love all of the diverse and ethnic foods, really delicious — and oh my favorite food is Jamaican.”

INCORRECT.

I’m not happy at all with being down 19bps and will seek vengeance in short order.

But for now, I’m 95% cash.

Listen to me —

I’m a truth teller and have never taken anti-psychotics like the great many of the unwashed financial gurus you stumble upon on X. I have a patrician background in the art of money management — have done so professionally and possess a digital track record of success dating back to 2006. I want nothing from you, other than your attention.

To be clear, I am PERMANENTLY BEARISH on the market strategically but here and now I am tactically bullish. One might ask — how can you be both at once — here and there — to and fro?

Understand something, I am a multi-tasker, a man of many hats — a true talent in many things.

For example, as a boy I could throw 90mph fastballs, trade stocks, talk to girls, get straight A’s in school, and make lots of friends — because winners attract the adoration of the masses. In many regards, this is why you’re reading now — wanting, needing even, a glimpse at greatness.

I am positioned HEAVILY LONG into tomorrow — positioned alongside the transgendered bulls because we are at an important level in the market that has, in the past, produced grandiose returns to the upside.

From the bottom of my blackened heart, and I really mean this — I’d like nothing more than to see the stock market descend into chaos — trading all the way to zero if necessary. I’d even volunteer 5 years off my life to see it done. But I do not possess the power to, at least not yet, manifest things of this magnitude.

Because of this, and seeing the writing on the wall, I do believe the bears have once again squandered a chance to apply the figure 4 leg lock on the bulls and have instead offered them an opportunity to sashay gaudily in one of their rainbow themed parades — obnoxious and arrogantly buying stocks without regard for the feelings of us bears.

I’ve traversed the landscape and all I see it chaos and ruin. Stocks are inexorably in a bear market and we’re gonna need a miracle to escape from a prolonged and retracted drawdown.

Just in the last the months — shares of our elite defense contractor Raytheon are down 30%. How are we supposed to finance global wars with the share price of our primary missile manufacturing struggling like this?

Here are some other ribald losses for you to think about whilst you smoke your estate pipes.

$NEE -34%
$SHOP-20%
$AMX -22%
$EL -28%
$TGT -21%
$F -22%
$FTNT -24%
$EW -23%

For the love of God — shares of $CHWY have collapsed to the tune of -53% in the last 3 month, threatening to deprive your beagles and hounds of the bones they so preciously adore.

I know your sentiment — “we are oversold, ergo, and this goes without saying — nothing drops like a fucking anchor to the bottom of the sea.” The thing is — we might not have a ship left to drop anchor in. We might need to escape in life rafts soon and leave the spoils for the endless hordes of migrants to punch, knife, and claw about in a meandering hellscape crafted by the demonic entities you so lovingly voted into office.

I bailed on my bullish ideas after 10 mins out there seeing stocks wanting to crater again. My patience for these sort of things grows weary over time and I tend to prefer the comforts of cash when indecision is abounds.

I have just $FNGU and $TZA now, a dastard combination if I’ve ever seen one. I should probably go to 100% cash, but then I’d feeeeeel as if I were missing out on something.

I just sold $FNGU, so now I’ll only be missing out if the markets crashes through the fucking floorboards. But even still, I’m 90% cash, so it’s not much of a position at all.

In hindsight, I should’ve placed myself in 70% cash, the rest $SQQQ, $TZA. But we cannot go back and there aren’t any do overs.

I just added some $SQQQ. The more I look at the tape, the more I hate it.

If you were charged with the French defense at the Maginot line in 1940, attempting to repel a Nazi invasion and those Nazis simply went around all of your elaborate works and pickets — leaving your left flank exposed — what would you do? Lesser men would surrender the entire country and spend the rest of the war in rusting destroyers in Martinique; but not I.

Today I stand before you victorious again, +32bps. I saw the Nazis coming and instead of letting them parachute their shock troops behind me — I furiously fired anti-aircraft batteries into the sky — ruining their plans.

I AM NET LONG and although this may chagrin a great many of my bearish friends out there — just know I hold no allegiance to any of you and will break our pact with one another at any time. I am sort of like Italy circa world war 2. One minute I am on your side, the next I am helping to invade your Fatherland.

Look — if you want to trade successfully you have to be consistent with your logic. If you were bearish yesterday due to high rates and oil and those things came down today — it would BEHOOVE you to not go long and give it the old college try on the upside.

Moreover, inside of my stock laboratory, Stocklabs, the percent of stocks rated “bullish” is near historical lows — almost always a signal that fantastical runs to the upside loom in the not too distant future.

Good afternoon —

After I published my blog yesterday a round table of the most powerful people in the country got together and hashed out ways to rig the market higher. I don’t have an exact transcript of what occurred — but it went something like this.

“Ok people we’ve got work to do. The fucking yields are too high and so is oil. In order to jimmy this market back up we’re gonna need to fix some things here.”

“You — what’s your name?”

“Me, Sir, I am Joe.”

“Joe who?”

“Biden, Sir, sorry.”

“Well Biden — I want you to get out their and crush the dollar. Do you think you can handle that son?”

“Oh yes Sir, thank you for this privilege.”

“Next I need the fucking price of oil to come down. You over there — Chuck Shmuck right.”

“Yes Sir.”

“Crush it.”

“Consider it done.”

“Finally we need rates to fall. That we’ll give to our good friend Mr. Powell.”

“It would be my honor Sir.”

And voila — today the price of oil is down nearly 5%, the US 10yr down 7bps, and the dollar is down 0.45% vs the Euro.

The NASDAQ is +125, but the small caps are still weak and they’re lower by 0.3%.

As for me, I bailed out of many of my shorts at the opening tick and hold some TZA, eagerly waiting in the tall grass, like all lions should, for some prey to prance about me. When I see it, I will pounce on it and lock jaw — tearing it limb from limb until satiated. My losses are 40bps and I blame them almost entirely on my dog — who kept me up last night for sojourns into the night with an upset stomach. I might’ve slept 2hrs when the market opened and then I decided to take what we call a “power nap” in America also known as “going back to sleep” and when I woke up — markets had turned against me.

No matters — the fucking dog is ok now and I am feeling good. My health is once again fantastic and my mood very fine.

Listen to me

This is not a drill and although you’re not serious people — I feel obligated to inform you of what is transpiring.

We have crossed the rubicon of oversold and done so along time ago. We are now ebbing, ungraciously, towards actual crisis — the sort of crisis that calls for an old fashioned flushing out.

Investor margin debt stands at an impressive $700b, down from a trillion built up at the top of markets when all of the morons traded cartoons for a living. But over the past two years, markets have collapsed and with it the money of all of those people who felt it was a good idea to buy digital pictures of rocks for millions of dollars.

Look — we have a problem here. Mortgages are cresting towards 8% and there isn’t any end in sight to what looks like a run on US treasuries. I grew up in an America that was known to me as just and resilient, hard but fair. We are none of those things now — gone are the halcyon days of largess and in comes the tyranny of a few weak men — imposing themselves onto the many.

I closed the session down 46bps — because I am a professional of the highest esteem. I am NET SHORT into tomorrow and view the VIX as LOW in the 20s. A real crisis deserves a VIX of 30 and higher. Very soon we will begin to hear about margin calls and hedge funds blowing up in fantastic fashion.

Backi in the dot com days when I was a stockbroker — I once had a personal margin call of $300,000. My margin clerk, her name was Felicia, all but kicked in my door and demanding payment post haste else she was prepared, as it was her right to do so, to liquidate my account at the market and fuck me over royally. After I had written the check and satisfied the call, the very next day I lost tens of thousands of it in a market that spawned directly from hades itself — all but ruining any plans young Fly had at building lasting wealth in a market as perverse as the dot coms.

At any rate, brace yourselves for severe downside action — the sort of tape that causes you to pretend it’s not really happening, only that it is and you’re here now reading me warning you about it ahead of time — something you will come to appreciate as the tenor of time manifests itself.

Many of my hedge fund friends are complaining to me now about the “cowardice” of traders. They tell me “why isn’t anyone buying stocks? Why don’t you write about how cheap things are Fly?” I can only tell them that “it’s over — and you need to shut up now and plan for life after money management.”

For the sake of your families and all those you hold dear — have a looksy, if you will, at the US 10yr — rapidly and fastidiously approaching 5%. People earning less than $500,000 per annum will never be able to buy a home again.

To suggest mildly that “it’s over” is a gross understatement and I only say it in passing, matter of factly. When you really come to think about it, we are much more likely to resume hostile activities against one another in this country — rather than live in peace and equanimity.

We are mostly an animus people — always on the lookout for war and turmoil. It’d be nice to just chalk it up to the government and blame them — but the people are culpable in nearly every single crime committed by the ruling elite and you’d behoove yourselves into thinking otherwise.

In front of me now is the choice between buying this dip or shorting into the hole. By buying into the dip I am siding with the transgendered bulls — thinking stocks have bottomed and better times are ahead. If I short into the hole, I am betting on collapse — a seasonal tradition steeped in rich history and custom. Many men better than you have ruined themselves in October — forced to jump head long out of their windows and right onto the concrete below.

I’d like to believe stocks are poised to crash — because to be frank with you — that’s exactly what we deserve.

But we are getting very oversold here and my instincts for preservation are alive and well. In other words, I need more time to figure this out.