ENOUGH OF THIS BULLSHIT

I managed to lose money this week, off by 1.6% — now sitting FLAT for November. When I juxtapose this nothingness against the fact the SMH is +16.6% for the month, all gains achieved entirely this week with Semis ripping ahead by 17% from Monday-Friday, I am chagrined.

These are the areas of the market that are bountiful.

It’s also worth noting the SMH gains are of a historical nature, only surpassed a handful of times with 2002 +22% being #1. I’d argue the upside in in fact LIMITED for the semis here; but who will listen?

It was all fun and games until the CPI print caused stocks to jump 1200 and I had been, and always have been, positioned SHORT. I didn’t get my brains squeezed to hell because I react to the  event, sometimes too quickly for my own good. There are bastards out there nailing every turn and providing their accounts with gains in both up and down tapes. At times, I am able to do that as well; but not recently. I underperformed last month, making just 3.33% and I lost 4.4% in Sept. Before that I was +3.4% in August and and July -3.8%. It is accurate to say I have done NOTHING for the better part of 6 months, as I spun my wheels indecisive and unsure as to a direction to commit to. The reason for this is as plain as day: markets looked like hell up until the CPI print. We are in a continuous state of crisis, only buoyed by these news events, and almost always we renew crisis mode and continue a cycle of grind house until all market participants and shattered to pieces.

I closed 119% allocated, mostly high quality longs hedged by TMV, DRV, and UVIX — which is a play on higher rates. Should rates go higher as we reflate and oil shoots up? Absolutely.

In closing, another SHIT-FILLED week for yours truly, down 31bps for the day, with a range of +28bps to -85bps. I am no longer grateful for maintaining my 50% YTD gains because too much time has elapsed for me to continue with that line of thinking, which brings me to my next conclusion. I will be providing a greater conviction to my bias next week, accomplished by minimal hedges and cash. If I am to become shattered to pieces across the rocks and fish, so be it. But this static do nothing phase of my personal investing has bored to be death and I can only imagine how some of you feel out there, semi-retarded cro-magnons, depending on me for ideas only to return back with your principle all the while gains of a ribald nature sashay too and fro your large nose.

I will make amends inside Stocklabs, starting next week. PREPARE TO BLOW THE FUCK UP or become a man of independent means.

Into the final weeks of November, when the gravy is rich and thick, fat faced Americans like to buy stocks — because they are greedy and callous and uncaring about the poor bears. Whilst you might believe this rally to be long in the tooth, there is a strong chance the prices you see before you today will in fact be MUCH HIGHER by next week.

There isn’t any logic or reason for that theory, other than the fact there seems to be more buyers than sellers now.

Risk averse stocks are being woodshedded and risk is on in a most serious way.

I am NOT partaking in the rally, aside from my Quant, which is PERMANENT BULL — because I am a PERMANENT BEAR at heart and truly and seriously want to see the world, all of it, burn.

That being said, I had traded back to positive an hour ago and have since SQUANDERED it and now find myself, once again, with nominal losses.

It should be noted, Sam Bankman-Friedman at just 30 years old was the second largest donor to the demoncrat party in 2021-2022, second only to George Soros. His mother is a big bundler for the left and Sam was being groomed to be the next money pig for DC.

It does in fact BEMUSE me to see Sam’s FTX filing for chapter 11 today, not because I enjoy to see others fail — but because I specifically enjoy to see Sam fail. There is a distinct difference, mind you.

Those committed to making the country a worse place should be PUNISHED with the vengeance of a malevolent God.

BTC and all of the cryptos are more or less hostage to the potential unwind of FTX. I suspect someone will buy them and Sam will end up back on his feet again, getting funded for a future project like the We Office son of a bitch and they’ll probably make a movie out of him, whereby we are softened by his nice puffy afro haircut and come to feeeeeel sorry for him. Silly boy didn’t know what he was getting into and turned on the ignition with a BOMB IN THE HEATER and blew the fuck up. Except me of course. I will watch said movie and throw popped corn at the screen, howling inside the theater without my mask, decrying Sam a “son of a bitch” who deserves jail time.

But it won’t happen, so I won’t get too excited about it.

Markets are a mixed bag with a strong bias up for risk names. There is an underlying weakness, but generally speaking, we should be ok.

I WAS POSITIONED FOR A FUCKING DECLINE TODAY BUT INSTEAD FOUND MYSELF ENTREATED TO THE LARGEST RALLY EVER SEEN THANKS TO THE SPECTOOOOOOOR OF A FEDERAL RESERVE PIVOT. SAID PIVOT WAS GLEANED FROM THE IDEA THAT INFLATION HAD ABATED, SINCE WE ARE ONLY STEAMING WITH INFLATION BY A PALTRY 7.7% CLIP, BARELY ENOUGH TO KILL GRANDMA.

IN THE AFTERNOON, I MADE AN ERROR BY BETTING TOO HEAVILY SHORT SEMIS, VIA SOXS, AND GAVE BACK ALL OF MY “GAINS” FROM -3.4% TO -1.95% BACK TO -3.4%. THIS OCCURRED IN A VERY ATYPICAL MANNER AND CAUGHT ME OFF GUARD. STUBBORN, OBSTINATE EVEN, I MANAGED 113 TRADES FOR THE AFTERNOON AND MADE MY EYES BLEED FROM LOOKING AT THE SCREEN ALL DAY AND CLOSED AT MY SESSION HIGHS FOR “ONLY” A LOSS OF 1.66% ON A DAY WHEN THE FUCKING NASDAQ SPERGED AHEAD BY 700 AND THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVG STEAMED +1,200.

GLANCER ON’ERS INSIDE Stocklabs AMUSED THEMSELVES WITH COMMENTS SUCH AS “IMAGINE NOT PARTICIPATING IN THIS RALLY. JOLLY GOOD FELLOW, SHOULD I SELL THIS SECURITY +30% FOR THE SESSION OR SHOULD I HOLD OUT FOR MORE?” YOU COULD JUST HEAR THEM JERKING OFF THROUGH THE SCREEN.

COMMENTS, SUCH AS THESE, CREATE AN ATMOSPHERE OF RAGE IN ME AND CAUSE ME TO WRITE 500 WORD BLOGS IN ALL CAPS. TRUTH IS, I WILL KILL, AT SOME POINT, ALL OF THESE PEOPLE AND BURY THEM IN THE FIRES THAT ARE TO COME. WHILST YOU MIGHT’VE MADE 10% TODAY AND YOUR PUNCHABLE FACE REMAINED, INEXORABLY, IN SMUG MODE — I WILL SEEK REVENGE AND I WILL SUCCEED.

I AM POSITIONED WITH A BIAS LONG INTO TOMORROW, BUT HEDGED.

FUCK YOURSELF.

The last time we had a 6%+ rally was in March of 2020, the COVID lows. It would be arrogant to look at this THOUSAND point rally and blow it off as a bear market rally. Believe me, no one would like to see the markets in hell more than me. But there are mitigating circumstances here that must be acknowledged.

Both rates and the dollar has collapsed and we might get a free pass on inflation until next month’s CPI reading. The war in the Ukraine is looking good for NATO and Biden is meeting with Xi soon. There are many things that can be manipulated here, in terms of news, that can continue to lever up stocks in a manner on par with the 2020 bottom.

That being said, I am keeping all options open for a resumption to the downside and end of PAX AMERICANA.

It might amuse some of you to revel in some of my latest faux pas. I had stocks going down in October and then I had the Republicans winning during the elections and then I had the CPI coming in “HOT AS FUCK” based off commodity data — which was a little off kilter.

As you can see below, inflation isn’t a problem in American any longer.

CPI 0.4% M/M, Exp. 0.6%
CPI 7.7% Y/Y, Exp. 7.9%

CPI Core 0.3% M/M, Exp. 0.5%
CPI Core 6.3% Y/Y, Exp. 6.5%

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 10, 2022

On this jolly good news, the NASDAQ is +591, Dow +831. The Euro is more than par, +1.6%, and the US 10yr is down a staggering 29bps to 3.85%. Concerned about oil? Don’t be. Oil is flat with gains in copper +2.3% because the Fed pivot might be here.

FED’S HARKER: EXPECT TO SLOW RATE-HIKE PACE IN COMING MONTHS

*HARKER: EXPECT FED TO PUT POLICY ON HOLD AT SOME POINT NEXT YEAR

*FED’S HARKER SEES PCE INFLATION FALLING TO AROUND 3.5% IN 2023

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 10, 2022

I had entered today with old man stocks, some NET, and a plethora of shorts — sending me lower by 340bps at the open as my SQQQ and DRV drove rail spikes through my head. I sold out of all of my longs, and then closed out my shorts — because I lost the right to own them, and then took to trading on the long side via leveraged ETFs and made back +150bps in losses at the time of this blog. I am now once again net short with LABD, SQQQ and an FAS hedge — 80% cash. But that could change in an instant — as I am trading larger sized positions than normal for 1-2% rips.

What happens next?

Well, perhaps whatever I am about to tell you just do the opposite. This much is indelibly clear:

The inflation rate is lower than expected. I realize we are still at 7.7%; but these things take time to unwind. The great pressure on rates has been greatly reduced today and we are seeing the FX markets normalize. My fear with any reflation of the stock market was to have it led higher by commodities. This is partly true today, as the Stocklabs 4000 index jimmies higher by 4%, the raw commodity index is higher by 1.15%. This is counter-intuitive for the Fed’s goals — but I don’t think it means a damn now, as we speed towards Thanksgiving in a seasonally strong time of year.

The comeuppance will occur during the holiday season, when firms report WORSE THAN EXPECTED results. Even still, I’ve concocted a list of GENERATIONAL BUYS inside Stocklabs and might begin a campaign of buying them once per month in early 2023, as I did with ETH when it was in the 100s.

Markets plunged by 600 for a variety of concerns today. Firstly, the elections proved Pax Americana is in fact dead and this nation is in its final stages of collapse. Secondly, people are spooked over the impending collapse of FTX — which has sent SHITCOINS sea-worthy into a deluge of fire and brimstone. Lastly, people are concerned tomorrow’s CPI numbers will come on “HOT AS FUCK”, as some might put it, which will then cause the Fed to hike rates until your eyes bleed.

In so many ways it’s over. The job losses are only first beginning and next we shall see COLLAPSES of large institutions. For example, everything is concerned about CS — but SIVB is down more than it YTD. There is a profound sickness about every aspect of this market. The permanent bull class of investor has been stabbed in the chest and buried.

On the topic of me, my favorite subject, I banked +75bps today in professional trading. I am hedged and smart and I will never blow up — not now, not ever. Whilst my methods might not produce 10% daily gains during short rallies, I am as right as rain and never blow up.

Here I stand before you, presiding even, +53% YTD and a quantitative passively invested portfolio up 11%, as the cunt at ARKK stacks dead bodies atop of losses — DOWN 65% YTD.

As for the CPI: the past month has been red hot for commodity prices. Expect inflation to be a problem until these pries drop.

Data via Stocklabs

The reason why you voted to oust Trump in 2020 was to send a message to him, not so much for Biden. The reason to vote GOP last night was in protest to the current ruling party, sending a message to them. But America didn’t really do that. Sure, there were some GOP gains, but nothing out of the ordinary. If you’re Biden or whoever controls him, you view this election as a rubber stamp from the American people that things are going swell and to continue the path we’re on.

ENTER FETTERMAN

Psycho

Clearly this man should not have been elected, but people voted for him anyway. Philly went more than 80% Fetterman — mostly due to the overwhelming majority the democrats own amongst blacks and latinos. He wears the dates of people MURDERED on his arms, tattooed there to remind him of all the people he has killed and the one’s he hasn’t gotten around to yet. Now that he’s in DC representing PA, I suspect several Senators will be murdered soon, providing the body of Fetterman with fresh dates to remember as he goes about life in the Fetterman way.

As for stocks.

Amazon is 10 yr oversold inside Stocklabs and nearing HISTORICAL stress to the downside levels. The data is good and if you look around you can bore witness to valuations of an absurd quality, such as SIVB trading less than 1x book for the first time since 2008.

But what exactly are we pricing in? The job data is good and earnings are off, but nothing disastrous. Have we overshot to the downside OR is the market pricing in something that is coming?

As for me, I am heavy cash, positioned in a pastiche of defensive names — hedged a little with FAZ. I am +81bps for the session and thinking the best course of action is more of the same. I shall not get vacuumed into value traps and will continue my methodical march higher amidst defensive names and hedges.

NOTE: TOOTSIE ROLL INC IS AT FRESH 52 WEEK HIGHS. If curious about the dot com implosion, I wrote two short books about my experience trading it. TR is featured too!

In the end, people get what they deserve. People were optimistic about an end to the Biden reign last night and fell flat, just like so many people out there fell flat in regards to ending the Ukraine war. We continue, as we were, almost completely undeterred by the political and economic disasters of the two years — stemming COVID policies to the war. Everything that was decided got us here. None of the economic ailments were by happenstance or caused by external factors beyond America’s control. Like building #7, we are being dismantled in a controlled manner, which makes some of you comfortable — as apparent by last night’s elections results.

That being said, morning dips will be acquired. Jobs will be lost. But in the end, the Metaverse will survive.

For the better part of the last year I had to hear the media praise this cunt Sam Bankman and his “magical firm” called FTX, which presumably was able to not only weather the storm as BTC collapsed, but also put money to work. He was, as the media called him, The Next Warren Buffet.

This piece of shit was also going to dollop a billion into politics — because nothing says “I’m a cunt like someone who wants to send $1b to political heathens.

Now it seems FTX collapsed. It collapsed so badly, with over $6b in withdrawals according to Reuters since yesterday, he begged Elon Musk to buy him out and Elon said fuck off.

CRYPTOS COLLAPSE pic.twitter.com/khPJw587MP

— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 8, 2022

No clue if that is real or not. But what is real is the COLLAPSE in Bitcoin from $21k into the $17s and what is real is FTX down 78% today, amidst rumors their arch enemy Binance has agreed to bail out the cunt firm.

In other news, I traded like a Space Alien Magician and came out the other end +27bps, HEAVILY short into the elections which I am sure will secure uncertainty as the retarded APE in PA pops champagne corks into the Harvard graduate Doctor’s face and the rest of devils in blue dance around the fire as they celebrate the coming upheaval and total destruction of America as we know it.