18 years in Wall Street, left after finding out it was all horseshit. Founder/ Master and Commander: iBankCoin, finance news and commentary from the future.
Tue Oct 25, 2022 9:56am ESTComments Off on Getting Rich Carefully
My goal for October is to make 5%. This morning we have a wild market led higher by tech and all of the beaten down trash stocks catapulting higher.
I want no part of this ribald display of greed and lust. I’ve gone to cash and will now read a book. My quant is fully invested and will take part in any further upside ejaculation. As for me, I intend to content myself with the 60bps of gains for the session. I might nibble a bit later on, or perhaps end of session. The point is to book a solid October and not permit greed and vanity cloud my judgment.
I didn’t want to admit the market was going to rise by 500, so I ended up flat for the session — giving up early gains of +95bps. These type of things happen, when you are a dynamic thinker. Those one track minded PERMANENT BULLS of course made 2% today and every other +500 point day; but they will also feel the wrath of my sharpened blade (made in China) when the worm turns and the mood darkens.
In typical American fashion, nothing matters. The scum ran prices up instead of lower and I am sitting with a loss on my SQQQ position.
Since I cannot be fooled either way, I also possess a sundry of longs and am leveraged at 108% due to my outsized SQQQ positions. That’s neither here nor there. The point here is to withstand the BOOLISH barrage and relinquish the longs into rallies but bank on there eventual demise of both Jim Biden and the US stock exchange.
Whilst this might sound like a rather curmudgeon and bleak outlook on life in general, I cannot tell you how elated and happy it makes me feel to know I am living to see the end of western finance as we know it today and look forward to the happier times to come in a caravan of armed wagons shooting at one another on the trade route.
There is a hope and a dream of a November rally — based upon seasonal factors. There are those who will point out “America loves to stuff their fat fucking faces with stocks before cranned berries” and that betting against the market in the month of November, ahead of the pagan holidays, is sacrilege. But this is stupid, since Americans do not posses an iota of religion and scatter away rather quickly when the bear comes looking for food. I suspect, and again I am only speculating here, the bear will be famished during November and will walk heavily upon the stock exchange biting off the heads of traders and spitting them into their Bloomberg terminals, whilst taking a shit atop of Goldman Sachs’ trading desk.
I see what the market is doing and I don’t like it one bit.
Whilst the $SHOP-tards are getting their brains blown out and the Chinese Burrito aficionados buried alive, there is an underlying strength in select semis and an overt strength in secular risk averse stocks, predicated off the idea that 3% divvies are interesting after all.
We have widespread bullishness in banks, especially regionals. And to be honest, all of this jibes perfectly fine in all previous bear markets I have traded in. The only issue I take with this is rates, teetering on the flat line and I think investoooors are buying divvies, Utes, and REITs ahead of a potential collapse in rates.
This is not going to happen.
Ergo, if this +300 point rally is predicated on this sole notion, when rates bust loose to the upside again — we shall be flayed alive.
Today’s rally is not constructive and should not be trusted.
It seems the war in Ukraine has escalated to the point of hysteria — where both sides are now pointing fingers at one another for concocting grandiose schemes to escalate the war into something unimaginably horrific. The Ukrainians are saying Russia is preparing pre-text to use tactical nuclear devices. Russia in an unprecedented move phoned the UK, France, Turkey, and the US to alert them that any “dirty bomb” provocations by Ukraine would result in an “uncontrollable escalation.” It’s not like the Ukrainians give a single fuck and just yesterday Zelensky ordered a fresh mobilization for all men under 60 to join the ranks and enjoy having your brains blown out by an artillery shell.
Russia is having their own problems, outmanned in some cases 10-1 on the battlefield, equally matched as far as modern equipment is concerned — thanks to the gracious lendoooooors of the United Steaks. Whilst some people might view Russia’s setbacks as constructive for world peace, I view things quite the opposite.
Since DC and London only seems to go forward and have plainly made it clear that Ukraine is not just a vassal state, but a puppet regime, Russia has no choice, whatsoever, but to engage in “total war” to neutralize the threat. Judging by previous Russian wars, this would entail the mobilization of millions of men and an escalation would take on a much more industrial capacity — one that would have to be matched by the west if they’re really serious about keeping Ukraine as part of their empire.
Ergo, and this goes without saying, the war as you see it now is most likely just getting started.
I’m bearish as fuck — long risk averse names — +71bps for the session.
It’s reasonable and rational to conclude the market has bottomed for 2022, based upon seasonal factors. Below are the annual returns for QQQ during November, courtesy of Stocklabs.
One might easily surmise the cranned berried sauce platters of gravy’d turkey and yams might place ze bears in a state of quietude, satiated with the blood and flesh he has ingested throughout 2022. But you’d be unwise you let your guard down this Thanksgiving.
I readily admit markets look constructive here and the idea of a classic November rally is alluring. But then I remind myself how over it really is and how we now have troops teeming at the Ukrainian border, salivating for blood sacrifice.
I remind myself that Japan is paying 40% more for imports this year and their currency is absolute trash, 37 yr lows. The UK is working on their 3rd PM in the past month and the United Steaks ls led by a cadaver.
Natural Gas prices have collapsed since Russia anointed Turkey ambassador of gas to Europe and oil prices have been suppressed thanks to Bidless Biden’s efforts to save the empire from dissolution.
There are many trials and tribulations ahead and dare I suggest we have yet to see capitulation. What does it look like?
Well, for starters the permanent bull class of investor would be extinct, only leaving behind their bones for us to construct in museums for the world to gaze at in wonder. “Here are the skeletal remains of a once foolish species, the PERMANENT BULL — got wiped the fuck out CLEAN during the great fires of 2022.”
Secondly, we require a magnificent display of panic, VIX to $100 and CNBC’s transmission interrupted by the Emergency Broadcast system to announce missiles are inbound to DC.
Lastly, a total collapse of stocks like AAPL and AMZN — the last vestiges of Pax Americana.
After all of that happens, then we might be intrigued by some bargains out there.
Have a pleasant weekend.
NOTE: If curious about what capitulation looks like in literary terms, I wrote two books about my experience during the dot com blow up. Enjoy.
I was flat for the week, but my Quant was +5.2%, as markets meandered between rallies and crashes. The consensus opinion amidst the bullish camp (BRACE FOR IT) is we bottomed and will barrel higher into Thanksgiving. Bear in mind, they have been saying this all year long, the constant magnetic attraction to unchecked stupidity in the face of overwhelming evidence contrary to their beliefs.
I believe in nothing but the Black Flag. I don’t think markets will trade down — I know they will. Having said that, I am not prepared to risk too much in an environment where one day we rise 700 and the next we sink 700. You can play games with your net worth and cause your heart to malfunction. I’ll be over here hedged, waiting for this malady of a Presidency to end.
Markets will continue to crash until late 2023. Nothing will stop it, not even a Fed pivot. We have +150bps left of rate hikes and if markets trade ahead of that and ramp prices — we will be forced to hike more.
Look here, fucked face. Markets rose today — but look at what also rose today.
The Fed needs to collapse prices of goods in order to reduce CPI to a level where it can justify a pause. Every market rally is paired with reflation of commodities. Pray tell me, how can we resolve this problem?
Look at us, rallying now. The bottom is in. The Thanksgiving run hath begun. After that is the Santan Claus rally. And then after that “The January Effect” where we finally, just like Ukraine, march to victory and new all time highs.
It’s that simple.
October, thus far, has been one giant murderhole.
There has been no policy shift, save from the fact that we are ginning up to give Ukraine another $50b in “aid” by end of January. Ergo, and this goes without saying, nothing has changed other than some buyers banding together pretending to relive their glory days.
During previous BIG DICKED rallies, I was tempted back into the fold on the long side, conforming with everyone else — taking my vaccines, scheduling my boosters and sex change operation. However this time, I shall NOT jump aboard the faggot boat to hell. Instead I will see you off and fire anti-ship missiles at you from the coast.
Unfort, I had some TQQQ and TARK to offset my gains in my shorts heading into today. After I liquidated it all, I’m up a mere 4bps. #SUCCESS.
The point here is it’s rigged. European markets are getting their brains blown out. Our rates are screaming higher and we are barely down.
By the way, have a look at natural gas, down another 5%. What shortages?
Exactly.
I’m so cynical at this point I believe in nothing, which is probably an achievement for some satanic deep state piece of shit.
Oh Bidless Biden is reviewing Elon Musk now and might nuke his deal for Twitter because of friendly Russian tweets in regards to Elon not wanting to lose $20m per mo giving free internet to those scumbags. I don’t feel sorry for Elon or Butthurt Biden.
I’m in cash, my YOLO account too, and will get back in when things slow down.
We had a morning collapse followed by a whole bunch of nothing thereafter. The bulls used that sideways painting as an opportune to re-energize themselves and pretend to make money. The bears just screamed at their monitors accusing the government of rigging prices higher.
Let’s make one thing perfectly clear, we want stocks lower in order to preside over the complete destruction of Pax Americana. It’s not because we are “traitors” but because America is currently occupied by a foreign enemy and needs to be beheaded. The quickest way to behead this monster is via the stock exchange and banking system.
At any rate, I was +30bps in the morning, made a few trades and got up to +40bps — then slid wayward into small losses but finished up strong +8bps. In short, I wasn’t fooled by any of the action, as evidenced by the fact that I made money.
That being said, I closed with a slightly bearish book, short bonds, REITs, long VIX, and TQQQ — 60% cash.
I would like very much to buy “deals of a lifetime”, gayly sashaying in my boat amidst the carnage of Florida. But that’s not what we have in front of us. This is the beginning of the end, meat shortages, cascading prices, skyrocketing APR’s, a Fed battling the boogeyman it cannot see.
Today is a perfect example of a bear market. This morning’s upside reversal led to an ebullient rally in all of the finest piece of shit stocks out there. Semis, FANG, oils — all dredged higher. Permanent bull stuck in 2020 came out from the woodworks and started to talk “diamond handing” stocks into Thanksgiving based upon a nefarious theorem in regards to a “Fed Pivot” and were instead ushered into hell where asset prices only decline. Such a place exists now on Earth and in America — where the pax is gone and the people retarded and the leaders are evil.
It just so happens I did not fall for such amateur tricks and was accused by others of “missing out.” I now stepped back in after being 100% cash and sold the market short, but with just 5% of assets.
If you want to survive the bear, you need to take your money seriously. I designated a YOLO account for the purpose of my inner degenerate. It just so happens that account remained ALL IN SHORT via SOXS and took an 11% ass pounding this morning. I held and now it’s down less than 1%.
