Position Updates: DECK

Currently, I am short [[DECK]].

The bear case is simple: specialty retailers, eventually, get thrown down the sewer—especially when the consumer is flat broke.

Comparing DECK to [[CROX]], DECK is overvalued by all metrics.

If DECK were to trade at a similar multiple to CROX, the stock price would be reduced to $55 per share.

Food for thought.

I bought 5,000 [[DUG]] @ $39.06.

Disclaimer: If you buy DUG because of this post, you will become addicted to oil. And, you may lose money.

If we are heading into recession, as sure as I’m sitting here, the major indices will be 10-15% lower by mid-year. Take notice of the abysmal start to 2008 as a warning shot.

If your approach to the market is to go long stocks, all the time, regardless of reason—you are in for a rough lesson.

See, unlike you low-end fuckers, “The Fly” learned a thing or two, playing down markets in 2000-2002.

Right now, [[FXP]] is my largest position. Look you, all bubbles come to an end, no matter how sophisticated the puppet masters are. Remember MNCS?

Also, with President Bush talking down oil in the middle east, I want to buy more [[DCR]] and [[DUG]].

Finally, my [[DECK]] and [[LEH]] shorts are working here. And, on the back of that homo [[C]] number, I am bulking up on my [[SKF]] position.

Basically, “The Fly” is a big ol’ bear & shit.

UPDATE: Citigroup- Credit rating cut to AA- by S&P following loss- Bloomberg (28.13 -0.93)

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41BjWZ-NSzs 450 300]

We just booked the worst retail sales since the recession of 2002.

Very nice.

Aside from that, [[CHL]] and [[AAPL]] have officially ended discussions, essentially assuring the iPhone will not be sold in China. On that news, [[FXP]] is shooting higher in premarket trade, as CHL swan dives.

And finally, [[C]] only lost 10 billion and change, while cutting the dividend. However, investors are keen to their stupid games and are dumping shares in the premarket.

The good news is, there is still dumb money in the middle east to float their [[C]] boat. The bad news is, China is no longer interested in investing in Western banks.

Hmmm, I wonder why?

While Chinese investment groups have bought big stakes in Wall Street firms like Bear Stearns and Morgan Stanley, the scuttled deal suggests there may be limits on how much the Chinese government is willing to invest in the Western banking system. The exact reasons for the breakdown are unclear, and it is possible the two sides may return to the negotiating table.

It’s a disgrace that we have been reduced to third world status, while they’re the rich fuckers.

Reverse roles and shit.

[youtube:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYD1tUD71C8&feature=PlayList&p=8AF18B710B3DB739&index=24 450 300]

With today’s move up, I lost 0.10%. Gee, I wonder how I will recover from such carnage.

Please help.

Without doubt, the [[IBM]] news was exactly what the bulls needed. The shorts ran for cover, while natural buyers stepped into ag, hard.

Aside from ag, other commodity related names were hot, particularly in basic resources.

With financials about to lose a fresh round of billions, I am contemplating bulking up my [[SKF]] position.

Frankly, the only thing that will change my bearish sentiment is blowout numbers, amongst the retailers.

I don’t care about tech, ag, energy or industrials—just retail. The economic health of Joey Bag-o-Donuts is vital for this markets recovery. Without him, we’re just running on fumes, waiting to get car jacked, then rolled on with our own vehicles.

I sit here amazed at the fucktards who are calling a bottom in the market.

Get this, since 1970, after going lower in January, the market has averaged a loss of 11.5%. If we bottom here, it would represent the smallest decline EVER, in the month of January.

Fuck that.

With gold rocketing higher, financials shitting the bed and the consumer in the septic tank, there is no reason, aside from a short squeeze, to go long stocks.

Use this rally to reduce your long exposure. Otherwise, before you know it, we are diving, hitting the lows again, and you’re over there crying like a little bitch.

Today, I will do nothing. My largest short position, via [[FXP]], is up. Therefore, there is no need for me to add to the position.

If anything, I may sell [[LEH]] short, again.

Developing…

I must say, that fucker “Sierra Water,” prominently featured at the top of this months leaderboard, has been knocking the cover off the ball. Thus far, he has recommended [[COIN]], [[SEED]], [[FEED]] and [[GRO]]. All of them have killed shorts, while enriching the gambling longs.

It’s worth noting, Green Writer, who has also been on fire, brought SEED to the table first, in the low 7’s.

As for today’s trading:

Before my meetings, the market was showing signs of fatigue, with key stocks losing momentum. However, looking at shit now, I am impressed with the staying power of the bulls. Apparently, they do not read history and are doomed to repeat it.

Anyway, the financials are still getting the “knife to the gut” treatment, with losses in [[NFI]], [[DSL]], [[FCFC]], [[PMI]] and [[FMD]].

Also, within retail, [[HAR]], [[TIF]], [[SHLD]], [[RL]], [[NILE]] and [[COH]] scream economic hardship.

On the upside, I like the bounces in the beaten down semi’s, specifically, [[SNDK]], [[NVDA]] and [[WFR]].

The only sector with real buying interest is Agriculture. Right now, [[FEED]], [[COIN]], [[GRO]], [[NOEC]], [[ARTW]], [[TNH]], [[CNH]], [[POT]], [[LNN]], [[AG]], [[MOS]], [[SYT]], [[CF]], [[MON]], [[DE]], [[ADM]], [[AGU]] and [[BG]] are exploding—dot com style.

Frankly, everything besides Ag is just dead cat bouncing. At the moment, Ag has all the momentum.