NOTHING KEEPS STOCKS DOWN

I am holding onto a SQQQ hedge mainly for sentimental concerns. I had been buying stocks all morning, glibly and without emotion — because America deserves higher stock values. Look at all of the effort we have put into this rigged system of ours. It would be a damned shame if we let it go to waste, just because of some silly war in a part of the world no one cares about and hasn’t been relevant since the Mongols conquered it in the 13th century.

It would BEHOOVE you to gaze upon stocks and believe they’re heading lower. Granted, this is a stock pickers market and some days retail is good, other days oils, and other days tech. It really is designed, when you come to think about it, to drive you insane. You could circumvent much of the frustration by concocting a diversified portfolio. But what’s the fun in that?

I’m still holding out for a chance we collapse into the afternoon; but I’m not holding my breath. The beautiful morning losses are almost gone now and the bulls are on the move higher.

Over the next week several parts of what was Ukraine will vote to become part of Russia, including the Kherson region. The Russian MOEX is down nearly 6% today, up from down 10%, on news that the Russian Duma will escalate the war with a bill passage tomorrow.

Here is the chatter.

Looks like Russia may be ready to take things up a gear in Ukraine.

The Duma just passed a bill introducing the concepts of “mobilization” and “martial law” into law. The upper house could approve it tomorrow, after which Putin will sign it.https://t.co/AcyPw45HLW

— max seddon (@maxseddon) September 20, 2022

Tatyana @Stanovaya whose predictions of the war have sadly for all of us been consistently true says the Kremlin with the Duma vote today and referendum announcement is gearing up for an "all-out war" unless Ukraine and the West back down.

— Nataliya Vasilyeva (@Nat_Vasilyeva) September 20, 2022

Vladimir Putin now in a meeting with bosses of the military-industrial complex, urges them to boost production of weapons and ammo, “urgently” supply the armed forces and ensure “100% import substitution in this sector” pic.twitter.com/rgz6TnOg1m

— Mary Ilyushina (@maryilyushina) September 20, 2022

???Russia announces they will accept “foreign volunteers” to serve in the army…

In Sakharovo, they will begin to accept foreigners to serve under a contract in the army.

???????Syria,North Korea,Africa,Venezuela … here we go pic.twitter.com/dIiL1zfDhv

— AZ ???? (@AZmilitary1) September 20, 2022

It seems to me from an amateur point of view, this is a long time coming — all things considered. Russia has been fighting the entire NATO military-industrial complex from the beginning, so it only makes sense they would legally escalate their capabilities should they need more personnel. This of course bodes terribly for everything else in the world and should make you feel uneasy in Europe, providing you need gas to heat your homes.

The Dow is -320, NASDAQ -110 and there is also weakness in WTI. I would, however, take any weakness in WTI with a grain of salt, considering Biden is literally emptying US stocks at a record pace to artificially reduce the price of crude. This program will cease soon and by early 2023, the US will have to buy back 10s of millions of barrels of crude.

I’m holding firm with a net bias long, -50bps early going.

All of your beautiful losses just dissipated into the wind. The markets closed at session highs and the horrors of past week, when the Fed was fucking stocks, had 180 reversed and now everything is great, fantastic, and we’re heading back up again.

All you have to do, see, is buy the dips. When the market drops a lot and you feel nauseous buying — you are likely doing yourself the biggest favor in the world.

Oil will collapse. Weapons will be delivered. Stocks will crest higher into the elections.

I will need to adjust my perverted world view in order to survive the coming squeeze. I gained 20bps, barely interested enough to finish this fucking blog.

The disgusting bulls are at it again, bidding up stocks because they can — spoiled rotten brats always having their way. Gains are mostly led by commodities, which is a silver lining since part of the bear case is seeing the price of everything skyrocket well beyond the affordability index, paving the way for widespread famine and perhaps pestilence.

My Quant is +84bps, trading 7bps, and I have been buying commodity stocks all afternoon.

God willing, markets will collapse the close and bulls will get the Ethereum treatment into the bell.

The 2yr yield is fucking retarded inverted vs the 10: 3.94% v 3.48% and no one cares.

“MUHHHHH WE ARE NOT IN RECESSION. THE NBER SAID THE ECONOMY IS FINE. MUHHHHHH?”

As an ardent bear, one who wishes to see the destruction of markets, this is what I have to deal with. Markets are barely down today and many sectors are up. This is the reward I get for holding down the bear Fort, down 40 NASDAQS?

Late late last night one of my dogs decided to vomit for the balance of the evening, so I was busy with my handy dandy Bissel machine just steaming things up. Having dogs are like having babies, except babies aren’t as disgusting and they one day grow up to be somewhat civilized and pay taxes.

I’m up 7bps, a quiet day. This is exactly how I like it.

Ethereum just had a BIG EVENT, so big the price collapsed and now all of the retards who dove in before the MUH EVENT — those fuckers are crucified to the wall.

NASDAQ FUTURES ARE DOWN 51 and we’re just getting started. Over the weekend VP Harris lectured Americans on how to fight the Putin tax hike vis a vie buying $100,000 electric cars. Someday there will be a wind that will sweep across these great lands and with it flying guillotines for the heads of all the people who fit into the contraption. It’ll be one giant COVID vaccination for the masses, the cure all and end all for all of our problems as a nation. You won’t need to worry about illegals in Martha’s Vineyard’s anymore — because the flying guillotines will keep those lawn mowers the fuck out of here.

I just got back from the beach. Mrs. Fly wanted to bring the fucking dogs for a swim, so we got in the car — drove 3 hrs to the beach — pranced around for 45 mins, ate dinner inside the car — then drove back another 3hrs.

And then you wonder why I want the markets to collapse.

Below is the table of returns for the NASDAQ over the past few weeks — absolutely chaotic. For younger traders out there, I promise you this is level 10 out of 10 difficulty and it’ll get easier.

We just went through a terrible squall and then a bounce up until the point of decapitation based upon the notion that inflation isn’t being contained. This fact of 8%+ inflation solidifies Fed policy to be hawkish until numbers improve. Part of the difficulty in shorting into the hole are those sharp oversold bounces. They happen out of nowhere, green candle after green candle, and usually lead to fantastical one day returns. But one day whimsical returns aside, The Fed has given us the blueprints. They are telling us they intend to hurt stocks/ the economy, in order to win the battle against inflation. In other words, short all bounces. The longer those bounces continue the more you should short. The idea that the market will trade up in the midst of 75bps hikes is IMPOSSIBLE.

Exorcize the bullishness out of your body and behold the wrath of the bear. We are just getting started.

It was supposed to collapse, so it ramped. Investors clamored to buy cheap and “undervalued” high growth semiconductor names ahead of the weekend, in order to best position for the Monday cash open. Whilst there might’ve been trepidation early going with FDX missing and dropping the most since the CRASH of 1987, by late afternoon it was nothing more than a distant and unimportant memory, as traders put cash to work in some of America’s finest growth names available.

Bears got STEAMED into the close, pressed nicely, and now have to wonder about buy programs at 4am on Sunday.

Look at it. Aren’t you all jelly for not being long SOXL into the bell? Shares of INTC and NVDA are back in vogue and as sure as I’m sitting here there will be a FIERCE crypto rally this weekend, setting up for a wonderful lift off on Monday.

As for me, truly a week designed in hell and then delivered straight into my brain. I shed 5% and consider myself to be HALF retarded, HALF human. I will let you know when my advice is worth your time.

I closed with SQQQ, CRK, ENPH, and FANG — again half retarded, half human.

Ciao.

Is there any doubt?

All Mondays YTD, Stocklabs

I stand before you a vanquished man, both of the physical and mental. Not only has my body succumbed to the pangs of COVID, but it scrambled my brains that caused me to shed 5% for the week. I see only darkness now and cannot think of a scenario where I might find a salient to surge upwards again. Because of this, I am 95% cash.

It would BEHOOVE me to not warn you of the hard times to come. Now with FDX firmly in the bear’d camp, there is little hope for humanity save a Federal Reserve spazzing out — halting of Fed hikes. That will never happen — because Powell is Volker now — and he is destined to be a cult hero.

Would it surprise me to see markets jimmy higher into the close and again on Monday in a “fuck you pattern” for the ages? No. We have seen this back and forth all year and I’d venture to argue traders have made more on the upside buying oversold dips than shorting into the hole. For the most part, traders have been immune to this bear market, since the oversold dips have provided bounces with very good consistency. All one has to do is wait for a bad two or three days, get long, and wait. Stocks like SHOP, RBLX and ROKU will provide quick 10% gains and then all you need to do is sell and wait for another dip.

This has been a very FORGIVING bear market and it has been quite mild in comparison to say 2002 and 2008. I barely know anyone who has blown up this year, just complainers bitching about 10-30% losses. If you’ve been long only and find yourselves down between 10-30% — that’s fairly benign is it not? All you have to do is keep adding to your accounts into the dips and wait for the turn — which I am told will eventually come.

But then you have the PERMANENT BEARS who say this bear market is going to be worse than 2008 — because the leverage is so much greater. It’s hard to reconcile it all and it’s especially hard to believe in the most grim forecasts — mainly because the worst case scenario rarely plays out.

I’m just about fully recovered from COVID-19. It wasn’t too bad, aside from the fact that my taste buds have been converted into dirt and can only taste soy sauce. There’s no way this ailment was made in a China, given the Chinese affinity for all things soy. Why create something that would ruin your favorite condiment? I’ve concluded, this disease was simply an accident of when a man eats live bat soup and doesn’t wash his hands after picking up the bat and nibbling on its face for the delicacy.

I mowed into today with a full book of longs and I sold them all for a little SQQQ. This is nothing more than spiteful revenge trading. We both know it’s too late for do overs. Stocks are doing just about as expected following the FDX debacle. Retail is somewhat of an upside surprise and gold is always an enigma.

After two weeks of being laid out, tired more than anything, I managed to trade wonderfully. I completely lost all of my gains for September and so much more. I had been +4% and now I’m -4%. I’m at the limit of where I’ll accept losses and then I’ll force some slowing down, which is ironic since I had been trading slow anyway. With todays thump, I really got 2 or 3 days of losses all in one. Truly efficient.

One should expect a closing of the lows. I don’t see why not. Then again, you never know on a Friday, all sorts of option fags running around taking gambles.