The gap down followed by a powerful hour of selling keeps recurring these days. The difference today is the structure which from a market profile perspective is sound.

Internals are weak, but I expect this morning’s “excitement” to fizzle out fairly soon.

In the meantime, shoot your favorite ticker in an email to [email protected] to see if it is oversold. The Fly insists we extend this generosity to the masses in these turbulent times. You can also see Fly’s last month of buys and sells with time stamp. Don’t let emotion drive your decision process here. Put some algo oomph behind your ideas.

Nasdaq futures were on the move overnight, traversing over 70 points worth of range on the session. Volume on the action pushed beyond second sigma further emphasizing the extreme nature of the session. Price spent most of the evening pushing lower before finding buyers who held yesterday’s session low.

Coming up at 2pm we will hear minutes from the FOMC’s June 16-17 meeting. This is likely to be a high impact event. The economic calendar is otherwise quiet on the day.

Turning to the charts, the last few days have formed intermediate term balance. Price action has been overlapping since 6/29, two Monday’s back, when the market began being jittery about Greece.   A clear low volume pivot point has formed right at 4402.50. You can see it on the volume profile chart to your left:

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme. Price worked lower and tested the low set during globex Sunday night at 4340. Just below it buyers could be seen defending.  Said buyers then worked back through the entire session range to print a close near the daily high.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and test above 4402.50. Look for them to sustain above this price and work the gap fill up to 4422.50. Look for sellers around 4439.25 and two-way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers push off the open to 4357.25, buyers defend, and two way trade ensues as we await the FOMC minutes.

Hypo 3 is a fast push lower, gap-and-go down. Sellers sustain below 4358 setting up a move below yesterday’s low 4334.50. Caution bulls especially if we trade below 4320.

Levels:

You can relax for now. Enjoy the brief respite because tomorrow’s FOMC minutes pretty much guarantee volatility tomorrow.

We are in one of those weeks that feels like it has two Tuesdays and an extra Wednesday thrown in.

If you are still recovering from the holiday weekend you may not know where the next move is most likely to occur. You really shouldn’t be shooting from the hip in this environment. Mean revision is alive and well making the chase a death wish.

You can go after falling knifes, but you better have a preconceived plan and stick to it (see DOC).

Whatever the case, if you’re considering a position or 2, shoot the ticker over to [email protected] to see if it is oversold. We’re also passing out a PDF with The Fly’s last month of buys & sells.

Check in tomorrow morning for a contextual build out of the Nasdaq heading into FOMC minutes. Be prepared for anything they say.

One of the comedic features of our current market rout is the asinine abandonment of basic materials. What, the future doesn’t need things?

Now gold, screw gold, you can trade gold. I am following Option Addict’s lead and accumulating our favorite conductor Mr. Copper. Copper is an industrial metal used by men to pipe gas and more. It’s not this nonsense gold you find dangling down a hairy Greek’s chest.

I doubled down on SCCO this morning.

Nobody wants to own commodities anymore. They don’t want equities either—you can’t blow a 4 foot hole in a humvee with a stock. The only thing worth owning during “markets in crisis” is a doomsday shelter. Also, for whatever reason, REITS, lots and lots of REITS.

If you even remotely paid attention to the Exodus algorithms these last 3 weeks, you were very diligently instructed to prepare for a rotation into REITs. It was literally the least sexy thing you could do. Let’s be honest—men are hideous mammals and our only appeal is stability. And what is stability?

Money and biceps.

Do I care if my DOC position sees a 15% capital appreciation? No, it just needs to pay me a dividend.

My book is otherwise completely ablaze, down nearly 2% despite being over 20% cash. This is the knife of owning beta. The market has unfinished business lower. It is better we take care of it sooner, rather than later. Pull the duct tape off in one rip, not a series of little peels, for fucked sake.

By the way, Fly added something a little different to this month’s site features.  You can email me [email protected] for a snapshot of your favorite stock’s overbought/oversold levels.  If you’re even considering buying today’s blood, do yourself a favor and find out if the bastard ticker is flagged by our super computers.

There is so much wrong right now. Greece voted no, the keno halls of China’s stock market are filled with losing bets, oil is plunging.

Population centers are currently fully ablaze by the sun. It is the exact opposite of first snow where everyone simultaneously forgets how to drive. Unaware of how the heat is affecting you, the media sets their target on your psyche, boiling your brain like a marshed mallow. Despite it all, and boy did they lay it on thick, buyers showed today and played ball.

In the wake of horrendous index gaps, we saw the quality tech holding up—companies like Apple and Telsa. My book continues to be hammered but is showing green shoots. Exodus rotational analysis plays DOC and NRG are working well, and thanks to a team of supercomputers, I am working with a green QLD position. There’s more, yah, but get the point.

The biggest thing making me hesitant is that ugly overnight low. We rarely mark swing high/low during globex. But the Nasdsaq battlefield overall looks like the aftermath of a turf war with crime scenes all over the place.

The market is chopping around. Homework pays big in these conditions, stick to your plans and execute on your terms, not the markets.  Remember the winter:

By the way, if you have a favorite stock or ETF you want to see overbought/oversold levels on, email me [email protected].

Hopefully you’ve enjoyed your extended weekend. Unfortunately, it is without doubt that most of you partook in an Ungentlemanly 4^th of July—guzzling low end meats gargling foamy beer—and you’re not prepared for the upcoming week. News flash:

The market is wholly unconcerned with your unpreparedness. If you take action from a position of weakness, you will be sniffed out by ravenous algo wolves, and torn to smithereens.

Fortunately you have, all of you have the opportunity to come inside our fortified walls. The below picture is from last night’s Exodus 4^th of July party:

Don’t bet against these market conditions without helper robots, no. Don’t lose your life. Also, the Strategy Session is complete. Inside it we recap last week’s action, build context for the upcoming week, and frame some actionable trading ideas. The idea flow is electric.

So clean up, put some aloe on your tank-top sunburn, eat a lean meal, and start preparing for another week of summer markets.

All these stocks selling off are taking the wind right out from under my wings. Financial markets and military power are the last standing pillars of USA superiority. To see our market succumb to the duress in Europe ahead of the weekend is a universal crime.

When the week started in pure calamity buyers were there. I was all puffed chest like a big dumb bird because I thought this country would never see their markets destruct on the eve of great national celebration. But we’re not China. Our central planners don’t pace through golden hallways and concoct patriotic schemes. Instead they sit idle, allowing the invisible hand to work. Which is cool, it’s cool, but the invisible hand is not doing a very good job finding buyers.

So we’re adrift lower. I bought into Friday’s weakness, and Monday’s. I bought into yesterday’s strength. I still have more cash but it looks like it will be earmarked for next week.

There’s no urgency to buy this market. Headline risk is high and liquidity is low. With the equities looking sick, it only makes sense we start a war. At the very least, we should ratchet up our drone delivery of 500 pound CORRECTIONS 10 fold. If we can’t work our markets higher in celebration of our Independence, we must blast the ideologies of ISIS into cosmic vapor. Best damn firework display in the world.

Immigrant hustle has always fascinated me. For the past two days a crew of arborists has been literally swinging tree-to-tree through my neighborhood. Their chainsaws and foreign banter have been a constant for the last 24 daylight hours, making ever more pleasant the wealth destruction occurring in my book today.

If you would have asked me last week if I expected NRG to be 6% in the hole by today I would literally have laughed in your face and offered you a dual by slapping you with a little silk glove.  It’s plunging into the abyss today along with the other lemming utilities.

It’s comrade in my “flight to safety” DOC is doing OK. Still, I want to ram my fist down the computer screens throat. So after I worked the futures down the zipper and back to yesterday’s range I changed gears and went to negotiate with the tree choppers.

Business, but in particular investing, is about finding the value of something and paying less for it. Value is based on the perception and interaction of buyers and sellers. The charts you see me post each morning are an attempt to apply objective numbers to these interactions.

Person-to-person interactions are different then clicking a button on a screen—a physical presence for one. Nothing closes a deal like counting cash in front of someone. It’s like, do you want to be this guy?

Or do you want to want to be this loser?

TAKE THE DEAL, here’s the money. America is at the mercy of Greece and apparently they don’t like deals. Meanwhile, everyone’s ignoring tomorrow morning’s NonFarm Payroll, therefore I expect a huge reaction when it reveals more hamburger eating citizens have dropped out of the work force and unemployment is on the rise further confirming the inability of The Fed to raise rates. Until then, I’ll go back to dodging falling tree limbs.

So we’re neutral today, after a trend day down, so to be skeptical of this afternoon’s strength is reasonable. And though I’ve been buying back into the market this morning, I am leaving ammo in case we see more weakness. In fact, I welcome weakness as it will allow to properly position my book.

But here’s the thing with timing. You want to have the in general right spot but to think you’ll be subjected to no heat is wishful thinking at best and a recipe for squirrel-like waffling at worst. So we may be 100 Nasdaqs up tomorrow and I will only be riding half steed. So be it, this happens all the time.

I took an old school QLD long this morning. And since I endeavor to buy a used car in the future, I started a new position in TRUE. It’s more a technical trade than a story trade, thank gawd, but I like the website nonetheless.

Aside from that Apple is faring well, Twitter is my largest position, Tesla is up to boot, and people are finally waking up to how sweet a deal DOC is right now.