Just as was speculated when this whole polka started, the fate of our entire market is in the hands of Amazon. Amazon is the most bearish looking momentum chart, and here they are, reporting after market close, as we teeter on the precipice of demise.

False move, real move logic has worked well up to this point. It has been the power move of the year, and it appears to be sticking again today. But the whole methodology depends on Amazon not filling the below volume pocket with dead-bull cream, in my opinion.

We are neutral, so today may go flat again. Don’t go chasing this move. Watch Amazon earnings. Watch GoPro intraday too. Watch solar as well. WATCH NOTHING ELSE, except maybe this clip:

Today required intense focus and patience but to the disciplined went the spoils of war. Make no mistake, my book of swings, my card collection, is looking like my Beckett collection, only the beauty is intangible as they sit here worthless.

But that will not stop me from finding someone else a bit more enthusiastic who I can sell some of my collection to for a slightly higher price than I paid.

Facebook is lower afterhours but it would not surprise me to see it trade up tomorrow. We have Alibaba earnings premarket and other factors which may contribute to a bit of good ju ju.

You could be frustrated with the downward price spiral post-FOMC minutes because they did not say much. Or, you can embrace the nature of market behavior and find opportunities. Some of the best opportunities surface when the intensity is high. As far as range trading goes, sellers just laced their Gatorade with crystal meth and charged head first into buyer territory.

They are moving fast, they are high, and now is the time to decide whether these zombie-like creatures will win and transform the streets into tattered ruins or if buyers can hold the line.

This is not the time to panic. Steady your mind. Toss a football with your child or nephew. Learn some new dance steps with your niece. But come to work tomorrow ready to execute your plan.

If you don’t have a plan, its time to work harder. Choose today. If you don’t choose today, then don’t trade tomorrow and choose tomorrow. This is no time to shoot from the hip.

The Nasdaq is ending the session with one of my favorite day types, the neutral day. These day types are rare. Since January 2012 they happen 23.32% of the time. But when they occur you want to be ready because they are fun times.

Today was no exception. We two ticked the IB high and fell right back into it, setting up a trade back to the mean. This typically happens before we go anywhere else. The exception, and even more rare print, is a neutral extreme which gains speed on the second range extension and closes near an extreme.

Today was the first time I have live traded through a NYSE Rule 48 and it was without question the most bizarre day I have ever seen. Stocks were trading flat-to-positive while the Nasdaq futures absolutely careened lower. It appears Microsoft trading action had a big impact on the behavior, so now we have to turn our attention to Apple.

Less is seeming like more for the portfolio until this range settles. However, I keep looking to buy on the low end. This morning, amid the selling, I picked up some GPRO. The only thing it has going for it is it’s intraday bearish head and shoulders, which satisfies my “flip it over” logic. It also has earnings next week.

As exciting as these big days are, you have to stay focused or the opportunities slide right by. By the end of one of these large range days, I need to blow my muscles to bits, otherwise my mind goes haywire. It’s all about the decompression.

Get your fruit trays ready, it is Apple time. May they outshine the brutality of Microsoft, amen.

Right before our eyes, the market behavior is changing. Perhaps it is the New York blizzard. Or maybe it’s Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, or all the heavy hitters reporting this week, or last week’s stimulus package. That’s just the thing, canoodling up to a reason, a ‘why’ if you will, provides comfort and security.

I say to hell with feeling comfortable. I would just as soon trade my clothes for burlap then be in a state of complacent comfort. The modern world is no place for the smiling sloth. Nature still favors the paranoid squirrel, and rewards him with a fluffier tail and sharper eyes.

VA is down a quick 5% on me. This is why you cannot chase VA. This is also why I ease into VA, several times, slowly.

Energy as a sector is looking good today. As an oil, it looks like a bear, grr.

It has been a good day for Elon Musk. His index [TSLA and SCTY] are up nicely to start the week. His autos were the most impressive feature of the Detroit Auto Show, as were his models, brilliant. The NSX was a close second.

The market is trying to roll over but not doing a good job of it. This afternoon I going live on the mic to MC this action and find some money extraction points. See you in the Afterhours.

Here’s the look heading into the open.  Stops are being run, lets see how much speed they bring into the tape:

First and foremost, the eleventh issue of the Weekly Strategy Session has been sent out to subscribers. May you find it of value. As strategy sessions readers know, we have a running counter which tracks the contextual bias calls made each Sunday. After ten predictions, here is where we stand:

So far, if you toss out the Time Stop weeks the data is not showing an edge anywhere but the Dow Jones. In the Dow Jones predictions have been 70% correct. Any stat head will quickly dismiss this data set, as do I. There’s a general consensus that 50 samples are the minimum before an observation can be judged as significant. But my hand is on fire in the Dow. I don’t even trade the Dow, nor am I patting myself on the back. Only suggesting that over the course of the past 10 weeks we have seen a healthier auction occurring in the Dow.

Next, as some of you may know, Option Addict is handing me the keys to the After Hours session to start the week. Monday-Wednesday I will be hosting After Hours with The Option Addict. This will not be another crash course in auction theory. Instead we will be dissecting and analyzing current market action through the lens of an auction. We will establish actionable price levels and have general Q&A.

Finally, if you are even considering trading futures, I implore you to open an account with Stage Five Trading. They are the only futures brokerage I know of who succeeds in creating a learning environment for their traders. Their rates are competitive and they have some nifty tools for helping you sharpen your edge.

This ought to be an interesting week. And I look forward to another week of seeing how my predictions pan out, live discussion of market action, and of course banking coin.

This week tested my skill set from start to finish. The intricate character shift post ECB was simple to recognize and push some risk on. But after weeks where the Nasdaq was ripping loose, this week ending action felt like slow motion.

The slow play actually requires a significantly higher amount of discipline and patience. Restraining myself paid, but I feel mentally depleted. Without an absolute vascular educing pump, I may wind up a hermit crab over the weekend.

THE ONLY WORK IS IRON WORK

I ferried out of FB, scaled TWTR on HOD like a bawse, closed out a 10 bagger in TQQQ (gracias PPT, all hail), bought the blood over at VA, and added to my HABT slow play. Oil continues to bleed me, via the UWTI, a bastard of an instrument who charges a harsh carry for the house.

It was a good week.  Here’s some emotional music to enjoy:

These lows become weaker with each test. Might see those algo stop run levels come into play soon, see below: