BALDERDASH

168 views

I do not take my presence on Twitter very seriously. Coincidentally, my stream is a source of entertainment. That is not to say every bit of financial commentary presented in the twitter hemisphere is without value, but rather that it takes diligent processing to concentrate down to a pure information extract.

However, I do not filter all the participants, all the time, nor do I filter my tick stream to remove 1-lot “noise”. I want to see as much information as possible, when I want to. Sometimes in all that commotion a theme emerges.

Today’s theme was the most confidently bearish I have ever seen. My stream was super confident on the bear side. People who never tweet their positions were touting their TZA and puts on this or that. More than ever, and I do a lot of twitter, it’s my drug.

AND I SAY GOOD. Flip it over logic has taken me through the month of January and I made money, dammit. It’s been a grind, so what? You want to know a real grind? Spend a summer month on a cement crew, 7-days a week.

Do you know what this weekend is? I have watched two quarters of football this year and even I know it’s the Super Bowl. So screw it, my book went into the weekend long, much longer than where I started the week. I couldn’t care less to gain CLOUT by TOUT-ing some hot new long. They don’t last long enough, so why report on it.
If you want to talk about trading, about how to trade or about performance mentality, we shall. If you want to fly onto my dock and wait for me to catch and throw you a fish, then you’re better off heading to Florida.

THE FISH ARE SCARCE AND I INTEND TO EAT AND FEED MY PEOPLE.

PS – big #FF to my homies on Twitter, you make the week awesome.

Sticking To Logic

165 views

Emotions are the caveat emptor to mistakes in trading. It is okay to have emotions—they are the passion fuel that drives us through life. The key is astute awareness and childlike curiosity for their nature.

It can be difficult to clear the haze and demonstrate objective judgment, but I find numbers and mathematics help quite a bit. You see, mathematics are the international language of logic. They are cold truth. To ignore them would be at your own peril.

Therefore, when the battle becomes heated, it is my fiduciary duty to lean on the logos of numbers.

Let me share a story with you. Marked on my chart during the Weekly Strategy Session was a certain “naked VPOC” dating back to January 16th. These areas tend to be revisited. On Monday, when I was presenting auction theory to the After Hours with Option Addict crew my charting computer went BSOD and I had to perform a hard reset. When it came back live my weekend work had been omitted from the charts.

Though I thought I was diligent in marking them back up Monday night, deep into the hours with burning eyeballs, I had failed to note the naked VPOC at 4101.25. It was only through fate, through a query from a learning trader about naked VPOCs that my awareness was brought to this oversight.

You have to take what you get in life. I am eternally grateful for the opportunity to speak to other traders.

Thus when the market was going 0-100 REAL QUICK, and it hit my mark, I was buying. It was my duty, per the code of the SHOMP, and I was merely a vessel of execution.

Logic can be your friend. Logic can help you develop confidence amid the “chaos” and logic can liberate you from suffering.

Her Life Is in Your Hands, $AMZN

140 views

Just as was speculated when this whole polka started, the fate of our entire market is in the hands of Amazon. Amazon is the most bearish looking momentum chart, and here they are, reporting after market close, as we teeter on the precipice of demise.

False move, real move logic has worked well up to this point. It has been the power move of the year, and it appears to be sticking again today. But the whole methodology depends on Amazon not filling the below volume pocket with dead-bull cream, in my opinion.

We are neutral, so today may go flat again. Don’t go chasing this move. Watch Amazon earnings. Watch GoPro intraday too. Watch solar as well. WATCH NOTHING ELSE, except maybe this clip:

When The Going Gets Tough, Buck Up

161 views

Today required intense focus and patience but to the disciplined went the spoils of war. Make no mistake, my book of swings, my card collection, is looking like my Beckett collection, only the beauty is intangible as they sit here worthless.

But that will not stop me from finding someone else a bit more enthusiastic who I can sell some of my collection to for a slightly higher price than I paid.

Facebook is lower afterhours but it would not surprise me to see it trade up tomorrow. We have Alibaba earnings premarket and other factors which may contribute to a bit of good ju ju.

You could be frustrated with the downward price spiral post-FOMC minutes because they did not say much. Or, you can embrace the nature of market behavior and find opportunities. Some of the best opportunities surface when the intensity is high. As far as range trading goes, sellers just laced their Gatorade with crystal meth and charged head first into buyer territory.

They are moving fast, they are high, and now is the time to decide whether these zombie-like creatures will win and transform the streets into tattered ruins or if buyers can hold the line.

This is not the time to panic. Steady your mind. Toss a football with your child or nephew. Learn some new dance steps with your niece. But come to work tomorrow ready to execute your plan.

If you don’t have a plan, its time to work harder. Choose today. If you don’t choose today, then don’t trade tomorrow and choose tomorrow. This is no time to shoot from the hip.

Neutral Daze

238 views

The Nasdaq is ending the session with one of my favorite day types, the neutral day. These day types are rare. Since January 2012 they happen 23.32% of the time. But when they occur you want to be ready because they are fun times.

Today was no exception. We two ticked the IB high and fell right back into it, setting up a trade back to the mean. This typically happens before we go anywhere else. The exception, and even more rare print, is a neutral extreme which gains speed on the second range extension and closes near an extreme.

Today was the first time I have live traded through a NYSE Rule 48 and it was without question the most bizarre day I have ever seen. Stocks were trading flat-to-positive while the Nasdaq futures absolutely careened lower. It appears Microsoft trading action had a big impact on the behavior, so now we have to turn our attention to Apple.

Less is seeming like more for the portfolio until this range settles. However, I keep looking to buy on the low end. This morning, amid the selling, I picked up some GPRO. The only thing it has going for it is it’s intraday bearish head and shoulders, which satisfies my “flip it over” logic. It also has earnings next week.

As exciting as these big days are, you have to stay focused or the opportunities slide right by. By the end of one of these large range days, I need to blow my muscles to bits, otherwise my mind goes haywire. It’s all about the decompression.

Get your fruit trays ready, it is Apple time. May they outshine the brutality of Microsoft, amen.

Tape Speed Gone-Zo

124 views

Right before our eyes, the market behavior is changing. Perhaps it is the New York blizzard. Or maybe it’s Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, or all the heavy hitters reporting this week, or last week’s stimulus package. That’s just the thing, canoodling up to a reason, a ‘why’ if you will, provides comfort and security.

I say to hell with feeling comfortable. I would just as soon trade my clothes for burlap then be in a state of complacent comfort. The modern world is no place for the smiling sloth. Nature still favors the paranoid squirrel, and rewards him with a fluffier tail and sharper eyes.

VA is down a quick 5% on me. This is why you cannot chase VA. This is also why I ease into VA, several times, slowly.

Energy as a sector is looking good today. As an oil, it looks like a bear, grr.

It has been a good day for Elon Musk. His index [TSLA and SCTY] are up nicely to start the week. His autos were the most impressive feature of the Detroit Auto Show, as were his models, brilliant. The NSX was a close second.

The market is trying to roll over but not doing a good job of it. This afternoon I going live on the mic to MC this action and find some money extraction points. See you in the Afterhours.

Oil Is Still Heading Lower

59 views

 

 

Here’s the look heading into the open.  Stops are being run, lets see how much speed they bring into the tape:QM_VP012262015

 

BALDERDASH

168 views

I do not take my presence on Twitter very seriously. Coincidentally, my stream is a source of entertainment. That is not to say every bit of financial commentary presented in the twitter hemisphere is without value, but rather that it takes diligent processing to concentrate down to a pure information extract.

However, I do not filter all the participants, all the time, nor do I filter my tick stream to remove 1-lot “noise”. I want to see as much information as possible, when I want to. Sometimes in all that commotion a theme emerges.

Today’s theme was the most confidently bearish I have ever seen. My stream was super confident on the bear side. People who never tweet their positions were touting their TZA and puts on this or that. More than ever, and I do a lot of twitter, it’s my drug.

AND I SAY GOOD. Flip it over logic has taken me through the month of January and I made money, dammit. It’s been a grind, so what? You want to know a real grind? Spend a summer month on a cement crew, 7-days a week.

Do you know what this weekend is? I have watched two quarters of football this year and even I know it’s the Super Bowl. So screw it, my book went into the weekend long, much longer than where I started the week. I couldn’t care less to gain CLOUT by TOUT-ing some hot new long. They don’t last long enough, so why report on it.
If you want to talk about trading, about how to trade or about performance mentality, we shall. If you want to fly onto my dock and wait for me to catch and throw you a fish, then you’re better off heading to Florida.

THE FISH ARE SCARCE AND I INTEND TO EAT AND FEED MY PEOPLE.

PS – big #FF to my homies on Twitter, you make the week awesome.

Sticking To Logic

165 views

Emotions are the caveat emptor to mistakes in trading. It is okay to have emotions—they are the passion fuel that drives us through life. The key is astute awareness and childlike curiosity for their nature.

It can be difficult to clear the haze and demonstrate objective judgment, but I find numbers and mathematics help quite a bit. You see, mathematics are the international language of logic. They are cold truth. To ignore them would be at your own peril.

Therefore, when the battle becomes heated, it is my fiduciary duty to lean on the logos of numbers.

Let me share a story with you. Marked on my chart during the Weekly Strategy Session was a certain “naked VPOC” dating back to January 16th. These areas tend to be revisited. On Monday, when I was presenting auction theory to the After Hours with Option Addict crew my charting computer went BSOD and I had to perform a hard reset. When it came back live my weekend work had been omitted from the charts.

Though I thought I was diligent in marking them back up Monday night, deep into the hours with burning eyeballs, I had failed to note the naked VPOC at 4101.25. It was only through fate, through a query from a learning trader about naked VPOCs that my awareness was brought to this oversight.

You have to take what you get in life. I am eternally grateful for the opportunity to speak to other traders.

Thus when the market was going 0-100 REAL QUICK, and it hit my mark, I was buying. It was my duty, per the code of the SHOMP, and I was merely a vessel of execution.

Logic can be your friend. Logic can help you develop confidence amid the “chaos” and logic can liberate you from suffering.

Her Life Is in Your Hands, $AMZN

140 views

Just as was speculated when this whole polka started, the fate of our entire market is in the hands of Amazon. Amazon is the most bearish looking momentum chart, and here they are, reporting after market close, as we teeter on the precipice of demise.

False move, real move logic has worked well up to this point. It has been the power move of the year, and it appears to be sticking again today. But the whole methodology depends on Amazon not filling the below volume pocket with dead-bull cream, in my opinion.

We are neutral, so today may go flat again. Don’t go chasing this move. Watch Amazon earnings. Watch GoPro intraday too. Watch solar as well. WATCH NOTHING ELSE, except maybe this clip:

When The Going Gets Tough, Buck Up

161 views

Today required intense focus and patience but to the disciplined went the spoils of war. Make no mistake, my book of swings, my card collection, is looking like my Beckett collection, only the beauty is intangible as they sit here worthless.

But that will not stop me from finding someone else a bit more enthusiastic who I can sell some of my collection to for a slightly higher price than I paid.

Facebook is lower afterhours but it would not surprise me to see it trade up tomorrow. We have Alibaba earnings premarket and other factors which may contribute to a bit of good ju ju.

You could be frustrated with the downward price spiral post-FOMC minutes because they did not say much. Or, you can embrace the nature of market behavior and find opportunities. Some of the best opportunities surface when the intensity is high. As far as range trading goes, sellers just laced their Gatorade with crystal meth and charged head first into buyer territory.

They are moving fast, they are high, and now is the time to decide whether these zombie-like creatures will win and transform the streets into tattered ruins or if buyers can hold the line.

This is not the time to panic. Steady your mind. Toss a football with your child or nephew. Learn some new dance steps with your niece. But come to work tomorrow ready to execute your plan.

If you don’t have a plan, its time to work harder. Choose today. If you don’t choose today, then don’t trade tomorrow and choose tomorrow. This is no time to shoot from the hip.

Neutral Daze

238 views

The Nasdaq is ending the session with one of my favorite day types, the neutral day. These day types are rare. Since January 2012 they happen 23.32% of the time. But when they occur you want to be ready because they are fun times.

Today was no exception. We two ticked the IB high and fell right back into it, setting up a trade back to the mean. This typically happens before we go anywhere else. The exception, and even more rare print, is a neutral extreme which gains speed on the second range extension and closes near an extreme.

Today was the first time I have live traded through a NYSE Rule 48 and it was without question the most bizarre day I have ever seen. Stocks were trading flat-to-positive while the Nasdaq futures absolutely careened lower. It appears Microsoft trading action had a big impact on the behavior, so now we have to turn our attention to Apple.

Less is seeming like more for the portfolio until this range settles. However, I keep looking to buy on the low end. This morning, amid the selling, I picked up some GPRO. The only thing it has going for it is it’s intraday bearish head and shoulders, which satisfies my “flip it over” logic. It also has earnings next week.

As exciting as these big days are, you have to stay focused or the opportunities slide right by. By the end of one of these large range days, I need to blow my muscles to bits, otherwise my mind goes haywire. It’s all about the decompression.

Get your fruit trays ready, it is Apple time. May they outshine the brutality of Microsoft, amen.

Tape Speed Gone-Zo

124 views

Right before our eyes, the market behavior is changing. Perhaps it is the New York blizzard. Or maybe it’s Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, or all the heavy hitters reporting this week, or last week’s stimulus package. That’s just the thing, canoodling up to a reason, a ‘why’ if you will, provides comfort and security.

I say to hell with feeling comfortable. I would just as soon trade my clothes for burlap then be in a state of complacent comfort. The modern world is no place for the smiling sloth. Nature still favors the paranoid squirrel, and rewards him with a fluffier tail and sharper eyes.

VA is down a quick 5% on me. This is why you cannot chase VA. This is also why I ease into VA, several times, slowly.

Energy as a sector is looking good today. As an oil, it looks like a bear, grr.

It has been a good day for Elon Musk. His index [TSLA and SCTY] are up nicely to start the week. His autos were the most impressive feature of the Detroit Auto Show, as were his models, brilliant. The NSX was a close second.

The market is trying to roll over but not doing a good job of it. This afternoon I going live on the mic to MC this action and find some money extraction points. See you in the Afterhours.

Oil Is Still Heading Lower

59 views

 

 

Here’s the look heading into the open.  Stops are being run, lets see how much speed they bring into the tape:QM_VP012262015

 

Previous Posts by Raul3