Love My Little Bird

Twitter is up after hours on solid top line numbers, an EPS beat, and a 24% gain in users year over year to 271 million.  I just want to nuzzle Twitter’s little nose.

PUTIN_Bird

Mama Likely

I like the way we opened for trade this morning in the Nasdaq, as of this writing (past results are not indicative of future returns, etc.) buyers have rejected away from yesterday’s range and held prices up near the highs.  I shuffled my book about a bit, selling my TSLA weeklies, and buying some AMZN weeklies, some SINA next weeklies, and I small earning’s gambol in X.

The current HOD in /NQ_F is so poor it has grocery bags for shoes.

LEVERAGE-D and preparing some meat trays for tonight’s earnings announcements.

Man Down

Midway through the morning session I was taken out of the action when one of my PCs went haywire.  Funny how a touch screen monitor reacts to a calculator being thrown at it, but I digress.  There is something very exciting about the market of stocks right now, something almost intoxicating.  The intermediate term participants are jockeying for position and creating a great degree of uncertainty.  From uncertainty opportunity is born.  The obstacle is aversion and keeping yourself away from its deep dark corridors.

I am down two monitors on the day, from four, as a result my screen real estate has become twice as valuable and I have to simplify my operations.  This is an excellent opportunity to carefully clear some clutter off my screens.

We are approaching a key turning point in the market place—earnings season is time to gird your loins.  If your price action swing trade never bared fruit, you must dig up said tree and bury it.  If you have a long term commitment to a stock, you must prepare for failure and ineptitude which is completely out of your company’s control.  It is the whimsical nature of the market participants who will ultimately determine your short-term fate.  Do not fight it, simply embrace the uncertainty and make sure you are in bed with your vision.

I have long term commitments to four companies—I am a bit of a polygamist.  LO executed the most impressive land grab I have ever seen with regard to eCigarettes.  Their Blu™ device swarmed party stores and gas stations like the early German Blitzkriegs of World War II.  I put my long term faith in a company that executes and disrupts with that much speed and tenacity.  Disruption is always at the core of my long term investments, thus my other three investments should come as no surprise.

Tesla Motors is coming up the flank, and will devastate old TBTF auto industries and their gasoline infrastructure.  Their counter offensives have been impractical and unaccepted by the people who matter.  Elon Musk is a visionary and one of the greatest leaders of our generation.

Go Pro is the camera on everyone’s wish list.  It is durable, simple, and high definition.

Twitter is the ultimate disruptor of the most powerful force on our plant, media.  The pen has conquered and build nations for 100s of years.  He who controls the media controls the minds of the masses.  Twitter is a way of turning the control over to the user, the consumer.  It is a scary thought, but a generational disruption nonetheless.  Every day someone debates making a stupid, fuck you money, offer for this company.  What is it truly worth?  What is the collective, real time conscience of the world worth?

All of my other positions are tactical and short term.  WUBA is bringing the doom hammer down on China doubters.  Next shorts to die are VNET.  BIDU doubters are dead.  The beatings are scheduled to continue on a daily basis as we approach the coming of the Great One, ALI-BA-BA!!!!!! (extra Indiana Jones caveman)

I will have 4 screens in a few weeks, but until then I may reduce down to my core holdings.  TBD.

Doomsday approaches for WUBA shorts

PAY ATTENTION TO 3906.50

The Nasdaq is in the midst of a Ricky Bobby shake’n’bake.  Or, this is the start of something much more painful and powerful.  For now, keep an eye on this one level.  It matters because it is the low volume node that denotes the thick of intermediate term value and the potential to explore north.

Use it like your afternoon pivot, paying particularly close attention to where we close relative to the price:

07152014_IntTerm_NQ_noon

The Four Questions

What has the market done?

Big gap lower overnight on fundamental news.  Open auction outside of range finds strong conviction responsive buying.  Nasdaq futures opened at a perceived discount to value.

What is it trying to do?

The market is now attempting to discover what the value of the contract is.  We are out of balance and thus we attempting to define key responsive sellers after a drive higher.  We are starting to see counter rotations lower since the close of the European session, especially before the low volume node at 3883.

How good of a job is it doing?

We are doing a good job bidding higher, the volume is average and the rotations are enticing the other time frame to participate.

What is more likely to happen from here?

From here we are likely to begin coming into balance.  The range on the NQ is already 50 points wide.  The short term trend is up making the possibility of a complete gap fill to 3886 distinct, especially if we trade through this LVN at 3883.  Otherwise we retrace back to today’s current  VPOC at 3868.25 and balance out into the close.

CHARTS:

07102014_IntTerm_NQ_7day_afternoon

07102014_marketprofile_NQ_afternoon

One Trade

If consistent profitability as a futures trader was easy then everyone would do it.  Volatility is so low right now that most traders are frustrated by the dead index markets.  The more versed players have taken their trading elsewhere to crude oil and metals to hunt down some volatility to trade. I still like what is happening in the Nasdaq.

Swing traders are back in the captain’s chair, beguiled by the warm drift of the summer tape.  Meanwhile Janet Yellen has been watching us kick bears up slides inside the schoolyard.  She blew her whistle today, sending a few ADD addled speculators to the principal’s office.  The clever swingers are getting away with rolling bears up hills behind the gymnasium.  The downright shameless have taken to the trash heaps, having their kicks just beyond 4th grade teacher Yellen’s watch.

This is the market we are in.  Today was the day after a trend day.  We had below average volume during the opening hour, we had an in-range open auction (scalpers paradise, the best days to fade extremes back to the mean, and just before I took trade #7 we one ticked yesterday’s high of the session.

Let all of that context settle in a bit, it really is a mind full.

Had I resisted just this one trade, trade #7, my day would have been profitable.  Had I exercised a proper flex of my contextual research, work I take great pride in, my win rate would have been 70% on the session instead of a failing 63.6%.

Here’s trade # 7:

07022014_trade7

In summary, although we are near record lows in volatility, am still 1 trade away from being able to turn a profitable trick.  I am pretty sure I can figure out one less trade to take with a consistent enforcement of context.

DEVELOPING…

The Day After a Trend Day

Today traded about exactly how we expect trade to occur the day after a trend day.  You typically see a few individual names stealing the show with some lovely follow through while the index goes nowhere, balancing along the upper quadrant of the prior day trend.

This is acceptance of the higher prices, at least in the short term.

I love doing my analysis, and understanding market profile, and how it allows me to have a sense of understanding as we navigate the markets.  The problem is always execution.  I need to be more mindful of my own analysis.  In this case, we opened in range, had an open auction opening type, and it is the day after a trend.  This is chop city paradise, where scalpers reign supreme.  Yet, here I was, trying to press momentum on the dap in trades numbers 6,7, and 8.  Trade # 8 earned a C letter grade because I do not hate the entry, however it was way out of context to expect downside follow through on the day.  I was ignoring context when I made that trade and it cost me 7 ticks.  Trades number 3,4,10 and 11 were the most quality, sure trades.

Here is the stats and the trades:
07022014_performancereport
On the day I was up just a touch, despite GPRO and TWTR biting into me.  Long term holds are tough, especially if you do not separate them out into a different book, because you have to be more passive in your management of them.  I swapped out TSL for ONVO, bought some AFOP, closed RGSE, and bought some July GOGO calls.

Reminder, tomorrow is a half day with US markets closed for trade after 1pm eastern, and all day Friday.

The 14 Year Gap

Nasdaq futures are trading a touch higher overnight in a balanced session of trade.  ADP Employment change came in better than expected this morning and there was a brief pop in the futures which was quickly faded.  This suggests yesterday’s price action might have been sufficient to bake in some optimistic economic data points.  We have US Factory Orders at 10am, crude oil, distillate, and gasoline inventories at 10:30, and a lecture from Yellen at the IMF in Washington at 11am.

Tomorrow is a holiday shortened trading session and the day is loaded with economic releases including an European Central Bank Rate decision at 7:45 am and NFP stats at 8:30.

As the Nasdaq Composite climbs into 2000 price levels, what jumps to my attention is March 31, 2000.  We closed the 1st quarter of trade in 2000 with a big red week.  April started with a gap lower and the market never looked back, falling into the abyss for a good two years.  Nature is effective at filling voids or vacuums or gaps, and when the market left one behind for 14 years I know it drove a few speculators nuts to see this gap remain.  Well, here we are 14 years later, pressing back up into this gap.  This is a Nasdaq Composite Index price level, thus I do not have a specific future’s contract price level to reference, but I think it is likely we fill this gap up to 4572.83, see below:

07022014_Weekly_NQ

On the intermediate term timeframe we can see the in-control buyers exhibited a high degree of confidence yesterday.  There order flow was crystal clear from the opening bell when they gapped up and drove higher.  It was essentially off to the races for the duration of the morning.  The market finally came into balance late into the session and the balance carried through into the overnight.  We are left with an interesting low volume node which aligns well as an early pivot point for today’s expected consolidation-type trade:

07022014_IntTerm_NQ

I have noted my short term observations on the following market profile:

 07022014_marketprofile_NQ

Trend Days Are Fast

And although my primary goal is to become a professional futures trader, my focus was primarily on increasing my longs this morning.  This multitasking does not allow for timely trade entry in the futures and I was a few seconds behind on my attempts to get long.

My only trade was a loser, a short, when we 1-ticked the high just before the European session came to a close.  We often see a decent bit of order flow around the 11:30am mark and we were far enough from the EMA to attempt a short.  However, it was the more difficult and less sure trade.

Anyhow, you can see it below:

07012014_performancereport

During the morning I bought more ANGI calls, closed my DDD calls +500%, added to FRO, and bought more WB.  We are squeezing up into dot com madness, and although watching an afternoon soccer match was my ruin last Tuesday, I believe to USA game is a good omen for this Duck of a day.

Time To Turn Some Tricks

Well the second quarter is in the books, and although a great many of you traded your asses off to get back in the green territory, and I congratulate you, I made my situation worse this quarter, tacking on an additional 8.28% in losses, pinning me at -16.51% YTD.

There were so many mistakes along the way.  There were also some tumultuous victories.  Net-net I lost money and that is not why any of you come to iBankCoin.  You come to see gregarious writers and traders who make money with poise and grace and a generous bit of panache.  These conditions during Q2 caught me pretty flat footed and when the time came to drop the hammer, well I dropped it only to scurry over to it and pick it back up before diving in my bunker.

To break the mistake loop I enacted some new rules, like maxing out at 12 positions.  This has already improved my focus and I am coming into the month with some nice positions in tote.  My cash is high, over 50% and I have a few places I want to stash said cash before all is said and done this week.

I have four investments I intend to hold through Q3 and perhaps Q4 – TWTR, LO, TSLA, and GPRO

I jumped on Senior Tropicana’s magic carpet at the end of May and have XOM shares purchased 46% cheaper than they are today. This position is also an investment of sorts, one that is mostly dictated by the good doctor.  I have some risk management in place, but with 46%  cushion I count this position as an investment as well.

I have July calls in DDD and ANGI.  Something tells me we will be rolling in Angela’s ashes before the month is over if you know what I mean.

The rest are trades – RGSE, WB, FRO, TSL, and GRNH

I intend to ride this steed, and other steeds to glory before the year is out, propelling my book to new heights and performing on the level of my internet peers and role models all nestled within the confines of iBankCoin.

May your cup runith over in Q3

Love My Little Bird

Twitter is up after hours on solid top line numbers, an EPS beat, and a 24% gain in users year over year to 271 million.  I just want to nuzzle Twitter’s little nose.

PUTIN_Bird

Mama Likely

I like the way we opened for trade this morning in the Nasdaq, as of this writing (past results are not indicative of future returns, etc.) buyers have rejected away from yesterday’s range and held prices up near the highs.  I shuffled my book about a bit, selling my TSLA weeklies, and buying some AMZN weeklies, some SINA next weeklies, and I small earning’s gambol in X.

The current HOD in /NQ_F is so poor it has grocery bags for shoes.

LEVERAGE-D and preparing some meat trays for tonight’s earnings announcements.

Man Down

Midway through the morning session I was taken out of the action when one of my PCs went haywire.  Funny how a touch screen monitor reacts to a calculator being thrown at it, but I digress.  There is something very exciting about the market of stocks right now, something almost intoxicating.  The intermediate term participants are jockeying for position and creating a great degree of uncertainty.  From uncertainty opportunity is born.  The obstacle is aversion and keeping yourself away from its deep dark corridors.

I am down two monitors on the day, from four, as a result my screen real estate has become twice as valuable and I have to simplify my operations.  This is an excellent opportunity to carefully clear some clutter off my screens.

We are approaching a key turning point in the market place—earnings season is time to gird your loins.  If your price action swing trade never bared fruit, you must dig up said tree and bury it.  If you have a long term commitment to a stock, you must prepare for failure and ineptitude which is completely out of your company’s control.  It is the whimsical nature of the market participants who will ultimately determine your short-term fate.  Do not fight it, simply embrace the uncertainty and make sure you are in bed with your vision.

I have long term commitments to four companies—I am a bit of a polygamist.  LO executed the most impressive land grab I have ever seen with regard to eCigarettes.  Their Blu™ device swarmed party stores and gas stations like the early German Blitzkriegs of World War II.  I put my long term faith in a company that executes and disrupts with that much speed and tenacity.  Disruption is always at the core of my long term investments, thus my other three investments should come as no surprise.

Tesla Motors is coming up the flank, and will devastate old TBTF auto industries and their gasoline infrastructure.  Their counter offensives have been impractical and unaccepted by the people who matter.  Elon Musk is a visionary and one of the greatest leaders of our generation.

Go Pro is the camera on everyone’s wish list.  It is durable, simple, and high definition.

Twitter is the ultimate disruptor of the most powerful force on our plant, media.  The pen has conquered and build nations for 100s of years.  He who controls the media controls the minds of the masses.  Twitter is a way of turning the control over to the user, the consumer.  It is a scary thought, but a generational disruption nonetheless.  Every day someone debates making a stupid, fuck you money, offer for this company.  What is it truly worth?  What is the collective, real time conscience of the world worth?

All of my other positions are tactical and short term.  WUBA is bringing the doom hammer down on China doubters.  Next shorts to die are VNET.  BIDU doubters are dead.  The beatings are scheduled to continue on a daily basis as we approach the coming of the Great One, ALI-BA-BA!!!!!! (extra Indiana Jones caveman)

I will have 4 screens in a few weeks, but until then I may reduce down to my core holdings.  TBD.

Doomsday approaches for WUBA shorts

PAY ATTENTION TO 3906.50

The Nasdaq is in the midst of a Ricky Bobby shake’n’bake.  Or, this is the start of something much more painful and powerful.  For now, keep an eye on this one level.  It matters because it is the low volume node that denotes the thick of intermediate term value and the potential to explore north.

Use it like your afternoon pivot, paying particularly close attention to where we close relative to the price:

07152014_IntTerm_NQ_noon

The Four Questions

What has the market done?

Big gap lower overnight on fundamental news.  Open auction outside of range finds strong conviction responsive buying.  Nasdaq futures opened at a perceived discount to value.

What is it trying to do?

The market is now attempting to discover what the value of the contract is.  We are out of balance and thus we attempting to define key responsive sellers after a drive higher.  We are starting to see counter rotations lower since the close of the European session, especially before the low volume node at 3883.

How good of a job is it doing?

We are doing a good job bidding higher, the volume is average and the rotations are enticing the other time frame to participate.

What is more likely to happen from here?

From here we are likely to begin coming into balance.  The range on the NQ is already 50 points wide.  The short term trend is up making the possibility of a complete gap fill to 3886 distinct, especially if we trade through this LVN at 3883.  Otherwise we retrace back to today’s current  VPOC at 3868.25 and balance out into the close.

CHARTS:

07102014_IntTerm_NQ_7day_afternoon

07102014_marketprofile_NQ_afternoon

One Trade

If consistent profitability as a futures trader was easy then everyone would do it.  Volatility is so low right now that most traders are frustrated by the dead index markets.  The more versed players have taken their trading elsewhere to crude oil and metals to hunt down some volatility to trade. I still like what is happening in the Nasdaq.

Swing traders are back in the captain’s chair, beguiled by the warm drift of the summer tape.  Meanwhile Janet Yellen has been watching us kick bears up slides inside the schoolyard.  She blew her whistle today, sending a few ADD addled speculators to the principal’s office.  The clever swingers are getting away with rolling bears up hills behind the gymnasium.  The downright shameless have taken to the trash heaps, having their kicks just beyond 4th grade teacher Yellen’s watch.

This is the market we are in.  Today was the day after a trend day.  We had below average volume during the opening hour, we had an in-range open auction (scalpers paradise, the best days to fade extremes back to the mean, and just before I took trade #7 we one ticked yesterday’s high of the session.

Let all of that context settle in a bit, it really is a mind full.

Had I resisted just this one trade, trade #7, my day would have been profitable.  Had I exercised a proper flex of my contextual research, work I take great pride in, my win rate would have been 70% on the session instead of a failing 63.6%.

Here’s trade # 7:

07022014_trade7

In summary, although we are near record lows in volatility, am still 1 trade away from being able to turn a profitable trick.  I am pretty sure I can figure out one less trade to take with a consistent enforcement of context.

DEVELOPING…

The Day After a Trend Day

Today traded about exactly how we expect trade to occur the day after a trend day.  You typically see a few individual names stealing the show with some lovely follow through while the index goes nowhere, balancing along the upper quadrant of the prior day trend.

This is acceptance of the higher prices, at least in the short term.

I love doing my analysis, and understanding market profile, and how it allows me to have a sense of understanding as we navigate the markets.  The problem is always execution.  I need to be more mindful of my own analysis.  In this case, we opened in range, had an open auction opening type, and it is the day after a trend.  This is chop city paradise, where scalpers reign supreme.  Yet, here I was, trying to press momentum on the dap in trades numbers 6,7, and 8.  Trade # 8 earned a C letter grade because I do not hate the entry, however it was way out of context to expect downside follow through on the day.  I was ignoring context when I made that trade and it cost me 7 ticks.  Trades number 3,4,10 and 11 were the most quality, sure trades.

Here is the stats and the trades:
07022014_performancereport
On the day I was up just a touch, despite GPRO and TWTR biting into me.  Long term holds are tough, especially if you do not separate them out into a different book, because you have to be more passive in your management of them.  I swapped out TSL for ONVO, bought some AFOP, closed RGSE, and bought some July GOGO calls.

Reminder, tomorrow is a half day with US markets closed for trade after 1pm eastern, and all day Friday.

The 14 Year Gap

Nasdaq futures are trading a touch higher overnight in a balanced session of trade.  ADP Employment change came in better than expected this morning and there was a brief pop in the futures which was quickly faded.  This suggests yesterday’s price action might have been sufficient to bake in some optimistic economic data points.  We have US Factory Orders at 10am, crude oil, distillate, and gasoline inventories at 10:30, and a lecture from Yellen at the IMF in Washington at 11am.

Tomorrow is a holiday shortened trading session and the day is loaded with economic releases including an European Central Bank Rate decision at 7:45 am and NFP stats at 8:30.

As the Nasdaq Composite climbs into 2000 price levels, what jumps to my attention is March 31, 2000.  We closed the 1st quarter of trade in 2000 with a big red week.  April started with a gap lower and the market never looked back, falling into the abyss for a good two years.  Nature is effective at filling voids or vacuums or gaps, and when the market left one behind for 14 years I know it drove a few speculators nuts to see this gap remain.  Well, here we are 14 years later, pressing back up into this gap.  This is a Nasdaq Composite Index price level, thus I do not have a specific future’s contract price level to reference, but I think it is likely we fill this gap up to 4572.83, see below:

07022014_Weekly_NQ

On the intermediate term timeframe we can see the in-control buyers exhibited a high degree of confidence yesterday.  There order flow was crystal clear from the opening bell when they gapped up and drove higher.  It was essentially off to the races for the duration of the morning.  The market finally came into balance late into the session and the balance carried through into the overnight.  We are left with an interesting low volume node which aligns well as an early pivot point for today’s expected consolidation-type trade:

07022014_IntTerm_NQ

I have noted my short term observations on the following market profile:

 07022014_marketprofile_NQ

Trend Days Are Fast

And although my primary goal is to become a professional futures trader, my focus was primarily on increasing my longs this morning.  This multitasking does not allow for timely trade entry in the futures and I was a few seconds behind on my attempts to get long.

My only trade was a loser, a short, when we 1-ticked the high just before the European session came to a close.  We often see a decent bit of order flow around the 11:30am mark and we were far enough from the EMA to attempt a short.  However, it was the more difficult and less sure trade.

Anyhow, you can see it below:

07012014_performancereport

During the morning I bought more ANGI calls, closed my DDD calls +500%, added to FRO, and bought more WB.  We are squeezing up into dot com madness, and although watching an afternoon soccer match was my ruin last Tuesday, I believe to USA game is a good omen for this Duck of a day.

Time To Turn Some Tricks

Well the second quarter is in the books, and although a great many of you traded your asses off to get back in the green territory, and I congratulate you, I made my situation worse this quarter, tacking on an additional 8.28% in losses, pinning me at -16.51% YTD.

There were so many mistakes along the way.  There were also some tumultuous victories.  Net-net I lost money and that is not why any of you come to iBankCoin.  You come to see gregarious writers and traders who make money with poise and grace and a generous bit of panache.  These conditions during Q2 caught me pretty flat footed and when the time came to drop the hammer, well I dropped it only to scurry over to it and pick it back up before diving in my bunker.

To break the mistake loop I enacted some new rules, like maxing out at 12 positions.  This has already improved my focus and I am coming into the month with some nice positions in tote.  My cash is high, over 50% and I have a few places I want to stash said cash before all is said and done this week.

I have four investments I intend to hold through Q3 and perhaps Q4 – TWTR, LO, TSLA, and GPRO

I jumped on Senior Tropicana’s magic carpet at the end of May and have XOM shares purchased 46% cheaper than they are today. This position is also an investment of sorts, one that is mostly dictated by the good doctor.  I have some risk management in place, but with 46%  cushion I count this position as an investment as well.

I have July calls in DDD and ANGI.  Something tells me we will be rolling in Angela’s ashes before the month is over if you know what I mean.

The rest are trades – RGSE, WB, FRO, TSL, and GRNH

I intend to ride this steed, and other steeds to glory before the year is out, propelling my book to new heights and performing on the level of my internet peers and role models all nestled within the confines of iBankCoin.

May your cup runith over in Q3

Previous Posts by Raul3