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Just checking in

Good evening lads,

I just did drunk yoga in Detroit. I went to a bar near ma farm and it was filled with sports women in high tech gear on rubber mats and I was like? Sure… let’s contort mammas.

I picked up a Modelo Especial from the serving wench and unfurled my mat. Striped a few layers off (it’s 15 degree Fahrenheit here) and sipped ma soda whilst the deed jay put down some whale noises.

Soon class began. I let out a few deep, earthy burps and twisted too-and-fro. Immediately caught a glimpse of a wonderfully furry womans armpit. That drives me wild.

So of course from there on out I did my best to assert my dominance, pushing deeper and stronger into the poses.

Now I am back at the bar and it’s awkward—these sports women are looking at me like I’m a eggplant sandwich and I’m drinking a marg.

Okay for now.

 

Stock market looked fucked. I’m sorry about that. I know how quickly fortunas wheel can turn. Putting me back in the dirt. But for now I’ve netted a cool 15k in nft profits on the week and tight women with hairy armpits want to eat me.

 

Grateful,

 

Raul Santos, January 20thz 2022

 

 

 

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Intel -2.5% in pre // NASDAQ new record high // here is Friday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume. Price worked higher overnight, at one point after settlement gapping through 14,950 on the way to making a new record high. As we approach cash open price has faded off the high a bit and is floating up beyond the Thursday high.

Major semiconductor player Intel reported earnings Thursday after the bell and is down -2.5% in pre-market trade.

On the economic calendar today we have PMI flash composite at 9:45am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap up beyond prior day’s range and open drive higher. Said drive sent price right up near last Thursday’s high before chopping a bit and then continuing to 14,900. We overshot the century mark a bit before falling back to the daily midpoint. Buyers defended the mid and we rallied into the close, spiking higher during settlement.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to reject an attempt back into Thursday high 14,952 setting up a push up through overnight high 15,015. Look for sellers up at 15,500.

Hypo 2 sellers work a gap fill down to 14,945. Look for buyers down at 14,924.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 14,900. Look for buyers down at 14,866.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ down -120 heading into a busy day // here is trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, balancing along the lower half of Tuesday’s range until 8:30am New York. At 8:30am retail sales data came out much stronger than expected and the producer price index came out higher than expectations. The data was met with selling, selling that knocked the overnight session out of balance. As we approach cash open price is hovering down near last Friday’s low.

Busy day on the economic calendar. Today we also have business inventories and housing market index at 10am, a 20-year bond auction at 1pm and FOMC minutes at 2pm.

Major U.S. employer and retail giant Wal-Mart is set to report earnings tomorrow morning before the bell.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down. The day began with a gap up beyond all prior highs. There was a sell spike on the open that successfully closed the overnight gap before buyers stepped in and formed an excess low. The first hour of trade was big and choppy, eventually leading to a brief range extension up. The auction reversed shortly after, quickly falling down through the daily mid adn then pressing neutral. The sellers tagged the naked VPOC from last Friday and exceeded it a bit before responsive buyers stepped in. Said buyers worked price back to the midpoint. Sellers defended. Twice. Eventually leading to a sell rotation into the closing bell. We closed off the lows but in the lower quadrant.

Neutral extreme down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press into the overnight inventory and attempt to regain Monday’s low 13,716. Sellers reject a move back into Monday range setting up a move down through overnight low 13,627.75. Look for buyers down at 13,600 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 gap-and-go lower, down to 13,571.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers work a full gap fill up to 13,749. Eventually working up to 13,800.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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Weekend thoughts from the snake man

Not going to trade today. The week has been choppy and less volatile than recent history. I do not have the best track record on Fridays like these. Also I am to attend a tree and shrub pruning seminar today hosted by some professor at Michigan State University who has invented over 100 tools. I dig that he invented tools and I look forward to learning something different today.

The liberal arts are keeping me sane in lieu of social interaction. Instead of hot yoga I have philosophy and meditation. Instead of all-night raves in unsanctioned buildings I’ve taken a deep-dive into the fiction and non-fiction that came out of San Fransisco in the early 60s. Instead of pumping iron and swimming laps I’ve dusted off the old saxophone.

The only problem is I weighed 182lbs last week at the doc and that is a lot of mass to carry into snowboard season. While most don’t see it because I carry weight well, I am clinically overweight. With a BMI of 25.4 which is pretty disgusting. Something has to change.

I have taken to eating chicken eggs like a snake. Two at a time. Nearly every day. Prior to the pandemic I consumed maybe 5-6 eggs a month. Things are changing.

The isolation is creating odd voids that I’ve taken to filling with eggs and panned cakes and it shows.

It’s not so much the work from home part. I’ve been work from home for nearly eight years. It’s the entertain from home I am new to. I prefer to take my libations kicks out in public. Not alone.

Most illnesses can be traced back to either consuming too much or not enough alcohol. Right now I am plagued by a lack of consumption. I cannot drink more than a few sips of burbon without going to sleep in the tranquil cells of Mothership. Something has to give.

Anyhow. Either I need to figure out how to liven this place up or start taking my hooch intravenously because I am succumbing to the great American sickness—a dull mind and pudgy growths of fat along the back and thighs.

These are my concerns, dude. Not yours. I hope this blog entry finds you in good health and thriving cognitive spirits. To hell with the pandemic. The big bad cold. I wonder how many novel corona viruses were going around San Fransisco in the early 60s…free love, man.

Alright, let’s dial back in come Sunday.

Until then, I remain, eager for action while grotesquely long bitcoin and Big Tech.

Raul Santos, November 20th, 2020

 

 

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Active selling ahead of the week, here is Monday NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price spiked Sunday evening when Globex trade opening, sending price up near last Monday’s VPOC before stalling. Price held the highs until about 7am when sellers began actively campaigning price lower. As we approach cash open, price is back inside last Friday’s range, hovering about ten points above the Friday midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am. Also be aware major U.S. employer and retailer Walmart is set to report earnings Tuesday before the bell.

Last week kicked off with a bit of a morning spike, then we faded lower through Tuesday morning. By late Tuesday morning a responsive bid had stepped in and put a floor in the markets. We gradually rallied higher for the rest of the week, never taking out the high prints set Monday. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a neutral extreme up. The day began with a gap up in ranger that sellers quickly resolved after an open-two way auction. Said sellers continued worki lower, tagging the Thursday naked VPOC before discovering a responsive bid. The morning selling lasted long enough to press the market range extension down, but the rest of the session was controlled by buyers, who reclaimed the midpoint by noon New York and defended a check back around 2:15pm. Then we ramped higher into the close, not exceeding the Thursday high but pressing into a neutral print and closing on the day’s high.

Neutral extreme up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to gap-and-go lower. Sellers are active ahead of 11,900 setting up a move down through overnight low 11,851.75. Look for buyers down at 11,815.75 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 11,946. Buyers tag 12,000 then look for sellers up at 12,056.75 and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers pres up through overnight high 12,065 and tag the Monday naked VPOC at 12,087.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ up a quick 30 into Q4, here is the Tuesday trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range.  Price worked higher overnight, trading up near last Wednesday’s high before settling into balance.  As we approach cash open, price is hovering above Monday’s range.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM employment/manufacturing at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The day began with a gap up, and after two-way auction buyers stepped in and drove price higher.  The auction stalled out ahead of last Friday’s high before rotating back to the daily midpoint.  Price then rallied back near the high in a late session ramp.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to press into the overnight inventory and reclaim the Monday high 7788.75.  From here we continue lower, closing the overnight gap 7784.50.  Look for buyers down at 7762.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 7826.75.  Look for sellers up at 7868 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers rally up to 7900 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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September is here, steady now

Lots of moving parts going into September, but mostly it means send the kids back to school.  The farmers are preparing to harvest corn and soybeans.  Wall Streeters hunker back down on their desks and focus back on attaining year-end goals.

I’ve always been fond of August for being the easiest month of the year to out-work and out-hustle just about everyone.  My competitors loaf around on boats and beaches then ship out to Burning Man for a week.  Meanwhile I toil away, building, planning, executing.  Sure, I went up to the north shore of Lake Superior for a few days, but I had my chief scientist Mr. Laser along with me and we were meditating on our next move.  There is no such thing as vacation for your old pal Raul.  I’m so far down the rabbit hole I’ve become unemployable, and if I don’t stay a few steps ahead of the competition I’m likely to end up a Total Vagrant, cavorting around the americas in a van, eating canned fish and pickles.

But I am committed. In fact just today I completed my 250th edition of Exodus Strategy Session.  I always find a way to complete this report no matter the circumstances.  I’ve used strangers computers to gain access to MotherShip despite being high in the mountains, to ensure I’ve wrapped our minds around the latest happenings of the equity markets.  Without the report, I was a lesser trader.  When a certain chess loving wine-o up and formed a mutiny 250 weeks ago, I reluctantly filled his shoes.  It was painful at first, after all I had quit my comfy corporate job because I couldn’t take being confined to someone else’s schedule.

I rebuilt the report to suit my style of trading—scalping market profile levels, working overnight gap fills, and scalping daily midpoints.  At some point, the added conviction gained by doing a big chunk of Sunday research started to pay off big time, completely changing the trajectory of my equity curve for the better.  And I have been hooked on producing the report ever since.

There have been many other endeavors that have started off the same way, as a reluctant habit/task at first before becoming an addiction.  The key is choosing them wisely.  There is no sense forging ahead with a task you don’t want to do if the actions aren’t justified by your goals.  It isn’t like someone is coming along to relive you of your duty.  Either the work will be done or it won’t.

Anyways, September is here and I intend to extract many fiat american dollars from the global equity complex.  Said dollars will be converted into durable goods like greenhouses and concrete as I continue to build a secret compound as far north as my constitution will allow, far from the malaise of suburbia.  Said dollars will also be converted into cold storage bitcoin which will be accumulated ahead of the (likely) move away from nation states to a dystopian corporate global model.

As always, we’ll be taking it one week and then one day at a time.  Thanks for stopping by.  Oh and Happy Labor Day to all the lazy americans, back to work!

Raul Santos, September 1st, 2019

Exodus members, the 250th edition of Strategy Session is live, you HAVE to see what the recent data prints inside Exodus are suggesting, and also the major development over on the NASDAQ Transportation Index.  Go check it out and let me know what you think!

 

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In like a LION: models remain BULLISH to start March

I am the most ruthless trader on ‘fin-twitter’.  Not that it matters.  It doesn’t.  But I am.

The only reason I blog is to clarify my thoughts to a peer group I respect. By forcing my thoughts into words, I have a mechanism for owning for any goblins hiding in my brain.

My biggest weakness has always been over-confidence.  It makes me rush and take senseless risk.  I’ve never been afraid of dying, even though I’ve been quite close three times.

Being on the right side of this v-shape recovery since it began has resulted in an exceptionally long win streak, and I’ve been dancing on the heads and cocks of my competition for the last few days.  I sense some hubris in my bull-trot.

That being written, the models lads, the ones guiding my whole approach, they remain bullish.  Now lets add some context.

Semiconductors.  They have a little potential bear trap setting up.  That ugly looking red candle that recently printed—if we make a sharp move lower soon, it will entice sellers to jump into the SOX.  It could end up they jump into the proverbial hole, where they are subsequently trapped, and eventually killed.

Seasonality.  Monday kicks off the first full week of March.  New month, new money needing to go to work.  Everyone says we are entering a tough spot, seasonality-wise.  All I need to do is pull up QQQ inside Exodus and voila!  I can cut through all the chatter with dat-rr.  March has seen the most popular NASDAQ ETF higher 68.42% of the time, better than any other month:

Sentiment.  This is a hated rally.  I refuse to drudge up any proof.  You have a device that can access Twitter, yes?  Spend a few hours rolling around in that cesspool of misery.  The planet, fucked.  Politics, a disaster.  War, any moment now.  Markets, rigged!

Put it all together.  These are prime (primal?) conditions to make hay as a speculator.  You have the tools, what you choose to do with them is up to you.

This week’s strategy session ends with a Seneca quote that I think all traders can meditate on this month:

“Above all, it is necessary for a person to have a true self-estimate, for we commonly think we can do more than we really can.”

Listen, we all have a unique set of strengths.  Whether or not we overestimate them depends on whether we can keep our ego in check.  Success can make honestly assessing your strengths, and the limits of those capabilities even more difficult.  Long breaks from trading have always been my best means of assessing what needs to be done.  Then I build mechanisms that augment my approach.  Rules.  Systems.  And so on.

I have so much h*cking respect for my fellow iBankCoin misfits.  We come here and talk shop with the explicit intent of extracting fiat from the global finance markets.  We are more powerful as a community.  So thank you for coming along for the ride and best of luck to you out there.

RAUL SANTOS, March 3rd 2019

Exodus members, the 224th edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

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Gap down in range into Friday, here is the NASDAQ trading plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme volume on elevated range.  Price poked beyond the Thursday high briefly before settling into balance inside Thursday’s cash range.  Some AM selling came through, and as we approach cash open price is hovering above Thursday’s daily midpoint.  At 8:30am CPI data came out in-line with expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have a monthly budget statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The day began with a gap down near the Wednesday low.  Sellers attempted to press us away from the Wednesday range early on but were met with responsive buying.  Said buyers turned initiative (initiative relative to Thursday open, responsive relative to Wednesday close) and worked the overnight gap closed.  Sellers returned price to the midpoint around lunch time, using Powell’s talk as grounds for action, but buyers became initiative during the afternoon session and we ended the day near session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 6624.25.  From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 6641.75.  Look for sellers up at 6666 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 6666 setting up a move to target 6695 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 6588.50 setting up a move to target 6557 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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FINALLY: All signal aligned for a ‘fat pitch’ into year-end

As I ventured deeper into my Sunday routine of gathering and parsing out raw market data from the world’s financial complex, I found myself starting to slam the keys on my keyboard.  The outputs from IndexModel and Exodus began to make my plums tingle and the testosterone was being taken out on my computer. This is what happens when a good plan starts to come together.  This is when I start to become aggressive.  I see a fat pitch setting up into year-end; the type of buy signal you look back at in a few months with either a fully erect of wholly-limped penis.

And listen lads, research and blogging and tweeting is useful to me but make no mistake—I am far less concerned with being ‘right’ than I am with making money.  An observation I’ve made in my now 5-years as a full time traders and independent side hustler is that many of these cash ‘rich’ people are not intelligent nor are they often right.  They are barbaric and persistent.

Persistence.  That has been our theme into year-end.  The last Exodus hybrid oversold signal was a brutal tease.  At one point it saw prices on the NASDAQ higher by +7%, only to erase said gains by the time the signal completed:

Part of my Sunday research is parsing through the signals generated by Exodus, and translating them into an easy-to-consume human format for our members.  The data inside Exodus is so immense that it can seem esoteric and even downright archaic without a translator.

That is why they sent me.  I am the expert.  I only hope that history remembers me as being kind to the robots.

I SUBMIT THE CYCLE SHOWN ABOVE AS EXHIBIT ONE TO MY FAT PITCH THEORY.

EXHIBIT TWO: BUNKER BUSTER

When I first started building IndexModel, I was just logging the data and observing the outputs, waiting to see something interesting before digging in.  One of the interesting observations centered around when the spread between the average bias score of IndexModel minus the Exodus hybrid score resulted in a number that was less than zero.  This does not happen often.  The last time it happened in 2018 was on April 1st.  We can look back on that time and easily see that bears were made to be fools that week.  That signal marked the swing low for the next six months.

The other two Bunker Buster signals in 2018 were on 2/05 and 3/24.  The 3/24 signal happened the week before the 04/01 signal.  That being said, this ‘fat pitch’ may take more than one week to fully realize itself.  But overall, what the signal calls for is an acceleration to the downside that ultimately leads to a tradable low.  Long time reader and Exodus member UncleBuccs named the signal, and I’ve always felt that he named it exceptionally well.  I like to name my signals in a way that reflects the behavior historically seen and a bunker buster missile is a good mental visualization to keep in mind this week.

EXHIBIT THREE:

Massive negative skew in industry performance.  Another observation from Strategy Session.  We look at weekly industry returns with an absolute value greater than 3.  That shows us the abnormal movement.  These industries are placed onto a ledger and basically I eyeball the ledger to see when it radically skews.  This week is the biggest negative skew ever observed:

The two outsized positive returns on the left? Silver and gold.  L.O.L.  Primal fear has gripped the market and people have fled to shiny metal.  When we’ve seen big skews like this historically, it has meant continuation in the direction of the skew in the upcoming week.  In other word, industry money flows suggest more downside to come.  This fits into our downside acceleration theme.

EXHIBIT FOUR:

ROLLFORWARD.  This week, on Thursday, most active futures traders will migrate away from the December index futures contracts and start trading the March ’19 contracts.  From close-of-trade Thursday until the FOLLOWING Friday, 12/21, is a set and setting rife for chicanery and downright fuckery.  Volume statistics, cum delta, all sorts of usually useful raw data bits futures traders use to gain an edge verse the institutions, are rendered worthless by rollforward activity—the unwinding of huge positions in the December futures and rolling that money forward to the March contract.

Fuckery that is likely to accelerate us to the downside and ultimately form a tradable low…

EXHIBIT FIVE

Santa Claus

EXHIBIT SIX

“Didn’t hit nothing important.”  My only buy-and-hold add so far, during this market rout, was that nice Italian sounding biotechnology stock.  A stock that I ‘Simple Jacked’ into, thinking it was a CRISPR stock.  Turns out it is not, but as a company they do seek the same outcome as CRISPR—IMMORTALITY.  The alchemists stone.  The holy cup.  The trident of Poseidon.   Hopefully I am not jinxing this buy, buy so far my entry has been validated by the market.

EXHIBIT SEVEN

I had an exhibit seven but then my A.D.D. kicked in.

Listen lads, the bunker buster signal can be extremely difficult to trade.  The key is waiting for that capitulation low AND a strong responsive buyer to step in.  Sometimes we gap down huge into Monday and the buying begins right off the rip, marking the low right then and there.  That is when it is most tricky.  So the key here, is not BEING RIGHT.  The key is making money.  Stick to your process, I’ll stick to my process, and let’s go get that bread.

I do believe we are very near swing low for the next several months.  If we catch it right, holiday seasonality should validate our low and then carry clean through into 2019.  Fat pitch.

Exodus members, the 212th edition of Strategy Session is live.  You have to read this one, go check it out!

 

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