Everything I love Is Dead

Today was a day of atonement for me.  The market opened, rejected Friday’s range and began exploring lower.  At first impression, I am always a skeptic of early directional moves.  I have studied many opening swings, and the higher probability course of action is a fade of the first move out of an open auction.  Given the nature of today’s initial move, away from prior day range, initiative selling, and also given the nature of our current context, “Higher Timeframe Activity Pushing About”, I demonstrated a bit of patience.

Not, quite, enough, my friends.  I initiated some fresh risk on the session in FEYE.  It was sort of strutting about this morning whist wearing green trousers. This position is down a quick buck.

But that play was not the true atonement.  My correction came in the form of Pandora, which I was stopped out of today.  I rolled into more duration on this position last week, too soon, because I was emotionally invested in the trade.  I had already made my mind up that I was going to be right with my Pandora long and would be pissing victory across the financial complex while listening to seductive R.Kelly hits.  Becoming this invested in a trade runs the risk of going on tilt.  I made a sacrificial sale of Pandora to right myself in the eyes of the stock gods.  The cold, dead, probabilistic eyes of the market are now off of my ego and back to auctioning.

I say everything I love is dead hoping that one of my others can toe the line and pull off an incredible move.  Maybe it will wham short sellers in the scrotum for old time’s sake.  But, I accept that it might also decide to turn the wham hammer on its faithful operator, such is the fate of a trader.  We become really good at staying calm while being punched in the face. Resist the urge to react, instead think, be limp, and conduct yourself as your preformed plans direct.

There is always a silver lining to a grim tale, and today it comes in the form of a magic potion I possess, one able of curing the world of their dreaded Ebola virus.  TKMR is ripping stupid fast to the upside in this direction down tape.  It has me questioning a whole myriad of other biotechnology ideas, even if their sector is under a bit of fire.

Hmm…

Risk on The Forefront

Knowing where a trade is wrong is something you need to decide before executing a position.  Setting this up, clearly, before you use your mouse to click into a position is important to the process.  Once you have committed to a trade and you money is on the line your limbic system is likely to kick in, and it is powerful.  At this point you are managing strong emotions and if you have not made your plan before this happens, your judgment is likely to blur.

This is any trade, short or long duration.  Have a plan before you enter.  Even if you do an OKAY job of this, you will benefit immensely from the process.  If you are following someone else into THEIR trade, then it is even more important that you formulate your own plan.  Your plan will be your boulder to lean on, not some HOPE in a stranger on the internet.

I think we emphasize this extensively on this blog.  And it’s worth being reminded of consistently.  If we want to achieve success in trading we need to carry the right mentality, the right area of focus, and improve our execution.

A few of my positions made nice moves into the weekend.  Today felt like a trend day down through lunch in the Nasdaq and the SPX with the Russell leading.  We found our first buyer response fairly deep into yesterday’s Nasdaq range.  However, when they did strike, they did so with a reasonable amount of tenacity.  The morning was about feeling the revision burn, and the afternoon kept us up in the upper quad of intermediate term balance.

In short, this was a long week, and the third quarter is nearly complete.  If you have not already done so, it is time to tighten your game up and stack some wins up into quarter end.

Regarding BABA, this is a 1/2 position based upon sentiment.  This think opened high, ripped, pulled back to the open, tested lower, and then returned back to the open.  My plan is to give the trade 10% risk to from my entry.  Targeting a $100 roll to $120, do I think it’s possible?  Yes, and I am willing to accept being wrong.  Trading is much simpler when you don’t convince yourself you are right.

Look for some fun theory over the weekend on the ole’ blog. Have a great weekend while it is still officially summer.

Lunch Is Served

I procured and fastened a few shares of BABA to my plate.  Nomb nomb nomb…What are you guy’s having for lunch? Anything good?

BABA

You Think This Is Bad?

GOGO3
I haven’t even begun dropping bombs.  You have only seen the tip and below an iceberg lurks too cold to melt.  You came into the game and started shorting momentum stocks, like the world owed you something because you are so god damned brilliant.

Well we’re all brilliant until they lodge a 10 bagger straight into your derriere.  Goodness, this post has already degraded to your level, to sodomy.

Do you see what happens when you let the wolf out of his cage?  They had me running across town thrice today, for some next level matters that oddly enough had to occur Thursday OPEX like what?  I just have to work this today?

I have enough nearly worthless paper to buy a modest sedan yet by some egregious feats of winship this book of mine is still green on the month.  Disgusting, I have so much work to do, figuring out how I could have avoided taking a few of these trades before my body decays another month.

For now, all I managed was a small scale of my September GOGOs (I still have a few Septs and some Octs) and buying more time in P.  Believe, not like Seal, well a bit like Seal, but also a bit like R&B sensation R.Kelly, that I intend to ride this position like a golden unicorn straight to Gomorrah.

If I do not report immediately to some heavy metal there is a serious option of violence.

May you be safe, healthy, and have ease of being…for you and me, now we dance

Wake Me Up

The Fed and Yellen press conference that followed were enough to jar the financial complex where the dollar went on a rally and equities printed some big neutral sessions.  Under the surface some momentum stocks are running, others are not.

The key is staying focused on price action, the auction, and using the information as best you can to predict future market movement.  Anything ‘bigger’ than this, like extrapolating fundamentals onto a 4 day trade is sheer lunacy.  Focus on price action, volume, and leave the rest for the pundits.

We are back in the middle of balance, the dip was bought, and there is still Scottish independence to price into the market.

QE infinity

Before You Go

The action leading into the fed was close to lockstep with the primary hypothesis.  Once the information hits the wires conditions are likely to change.  This might sound a bit loopy but, I am looking for the third reaction to provide some direction.  That is, the reaction to the reaction’s reaction.

Try to keep up.

Talking book, I bought some more time in GOGO because that daily chart is just how I like it, and I joined the NMBL trade.

No one knows quite how much noise The Fed wants to make today, so keep an eye on your risk.

Godspeed mates!

[Select] Yesterday, Edit->Undo

When you have a key piece of market profile context, a model if you will, and you use it as part of a forecast, this is a process.  There are many other processes and plans, but market profile is mine.  Without me it is useless, but together we are effective and helpful for navigating the markets.

There is a big element of luck in trading.  Professionals might claim otherwise, but for as much skill as the activity requires, it also benefits from the hand you are dealt.  I have always found the harder I work, the luckier I am.  Staying humble and accepting that you can only focus on the process and be happy no matter the outcome is the core mindset needed for trading.  Today China juiced the markets, tomorrow the Fed might yank more juice than we expect, this is the flop, if you will.

If you do your job well and lose money, you can still be happy with yourself.  Periodically, check the numbers, and make changes to your methodology.  This should always be done outside of market hours otherwise you are likely to be swayed by emotions and pulled many different directions.

When the markets become fast traders have a tendency to break rules.  When they break rules they lose money, when the lose more money than they intended they either are knocked out of the game or put on tilt.  You need to work on yourself more than you need to work on understanding the latest indicator or macro correlation.  Take trades, keep good stats and recording, learn, adjust, and keep taking action.

All of that said, here we are.  We knew intermediate term balance had not been breached, and why should it BEFORE all the major news comes out?  Then we had this beautiful long liquidation profile yesterday, a temporary phenomenon of order flow, temporary.  These words are chosen very carefully when communicating with you, finest people of the interwebs.   Patrons of iBankCoin, I humbly submit my actions to you today: nothing, a nap.

It took every bone in my body to restrain from buying this morning, just as it took many of those same bones to grin and bear yesterday’s furnace of losses.  I can look at my performance over these last two days with a big ear-to-ear, wondering if in fact R.Kelly will make a proper appearance before Friday.

That is all.

Godspeed and kisses,

Raul

Bear Witness To The Long Liquidation

What we just observed today was the rarely discussed counterparty to the short squeeze.  My friends, this is what a long liquidation looks like:

09152014_marketprofile_NQ-bSHAPE-Ah

This is a temporary market phenomenon where an aggressive other timeframe enters the market early causing an elongated profile.  However, instead of continuing to trend for the rest of the session, the market instead comes into balance.  When this day type occurs in the context of a downtrend, there is not much you can take away from it—you just know longs were liquidated which is part and parcel to a downtrend.  However, inside the context of an uptrend, this day type often serves as a pressure release valve which blows off some steam (tosses a few pikers into the furnace) before continuing higher.  Today’s also featured a responsive buying tail, thus the bulls have a few contextual pieces to hang their hat upon.

The extension lower traveled a bit further than I expected, which elevated my concern a bit.  I might have missed an opportunity to buy some cheap charts, but part of me wanted to wait and see tomorrow before taking any action.  The kicker is Wednesday.  There is literally USA QE pace on the agenda for mid-Wednesday trade.  You would be a damn fool to not expect price movement on the news.  No matter the nature of the news, because I am not one of those analysts, there will be a reaction, and then a reaction to the reaction, and then we likely will have a pretty clear picture of how the next few days of trade will play out.  This is big league price action going into the end of Q3.  The price action this week is way above my pay grade.  I will wait for these big waves to woosh through the market place, apply auction logic to the footprints, make an educated guess about the next 2-3 days, position accordingly, and manage risk to make the money.

In summary, today we printed a b-shape profile.  These are temporary phenomena, especially during an uptrend.  We have been in intermediate term balance for 16-sessions, why break it before the BIGGEST ASSED piece of information is introduced Wednesday afternoon?  And I may not be aggressive enough, opting to not add risk today.

However, I have enough risk to tide me over, so don’t worry about your old pal Raul.  I was down about 6% today.

SOLD

The market opened today and was an institutional sale.  We had a directional drive lower off the open and it carried a bit of follow through as early knife catchers were liquidated.  With the move went many of the momentum stocks, possibly due to the Nasdaq and Russell leading the way lower.

Since my daily analysis is a point of pride, using the wrong start date for several analysis to describe intermediate term balance sucks.  Once that small change was made, the downside imbalance became abundantly clear.  Last week we were on watch for shenanigans, it appears said shenanigans were held off until today.  Old school iBankCoin bad boy Scott Bleier had a name for this—day of terror, we see about two per month in the QE environment.

Moving on, I booked my GPRO investment just shy of $70 after we nearly touched my $72 price target this morning.  Many of you thought I was a bit batty, buying this IPO and calling for $72, when in reality I was dead on.  The truth is, no one thought I was batty, instead the call was mostly overlooked.  It shall go down as my best investment call ever, to date.

I stopped out YELP early, LOCO is on the fritz, and PBPB is dead money but has me craving peanut butter.  There is still a bid in the slower names, V does not look horrible nor do my October calls.  I tried grabbing the GOOGL knife this morning, expecting some dastard reversal to print some epic hammer.  All I have is a flesh wound to show for it.

Finally, everyone has their own style of trading.  Just look at the numbers and make sure you maintain a positive expectancy.  I scale, and scaling allowed me to milk a big profit out of WB.  I still have a small piece, which is down a stupid amount of money, but the emotional toll is practically nonexistent.  As I continue to develop, this consistent victories keep me focused and sharp.

Embrace the day of terror, do not let the initial blow of its impression knock you off your feet.

FOOD MODE

If there is one vice I simply embrace it would be my passion for food, lots and lots of food.  There is this vegan eatery nearby my home.  There food is fantastic.  The problem is how tiny their servings all, like a bird’s portion.  I am an ox, I order three entrées.  You have to be willing to compromise sometimes.  If I want massive portions of healthy food, then I have to pony up some extra cheddar, you dig?

Fine foods can be like a diamond in the ruff out here in the mean suburbs of Detroit.  I am sure it is nothing like the backcountry, dire choices some of you face, but to procure something light on the sodium and disgusting fats takes some digging around.  How do I dig exactly?  Well with YELP, of course.  Great app, I like chart even better. I bought some to wrap up the week.

This position adds to my food empire, which includes another undersized food proprietor, Potbelly, and a California delicatessen second only to In-And-Out, The El Pollo Loco.

As you can see, my book is laden with foods, delicious casual dining experiences we can all confidently enjoy.  There are all sorts of other moments that were special about today, like dumping my transitory hedge for a scratch at the low of the day.  That was special.  These types of executions bring a warm feeling to my heart and make me hungry for more winship.

Stay hungry my friends.

Now I am off to sacrifice a few organic chickens to my belly gods.

Everything I love Is Dead

Today was a day of atonement for me.  The market opened, rejected Friday’s range and began exploring lower.  At first impression, I am always a skeptic of early directional moves.  I have studied many opening swings, and the higher probability course of action is a fade of the first move out of an open auction.  Given the nature of today’s initial move, away from prior day range, initiative selling, and also given the nature of our current context, “Higher Timeframe Activity Pushing About”, I demonstrated a bit of patience.

Not, quite, enough, my friends.  I initiated some fresh risk on the session in FEYE.  It was sort of strutting about this morning whist wearing green trousers. This position is down a quick buck.

But that play was not the true atonement.  My correction came in the form of Pandora, which I was stopped out of today.  I rolled into more duration on this position last week, too soon, because I was emotionally invested in the trade.  I had already made my mind up that I was going to be right with my Pandora long and would be pissing victory across the financial complex while listening to seductive R.Kelly hits.  Becoming this invested in a trade runs the risk of going on tilt.  I made a sacrificial sale of Pandora to right myself in the eyes of the stock gods.  The cold, dead, probabilistic eyes of the market are now off of my ego and back to auctioning.

I say everything I love is dead hoping that one of my others can toe the line and pull off an incredible move.  Maybe it will wham short sellers in the scrotum for old time’s sake.  But, I accept that it might also decide to turn the wham hammer on its faithful operator, such is the fate of a trader.  We become really good at staying calm while being punched in the face. Resist the urge to react, instead think, be limp, and conduct yourself as your preformed plans direct.

There is always a silver lining to a grim tale, and today it comes in the form of a magic potion I possess, one able of curing the world of their dreaded Ebola virus.  TKMR is ripping stupid fast to the upside in this direction down tape.  It has me questioning a whole myriad of other biotechnology ideas, even if their sector is under a bit of fire.

Hmm…

Risk on The Forefront

Knowing where a trade is wrong is something you need to decide before executing a position.  Setting this up, clearly, before you use your mouse to click into a position is important to the process.  Once you have committed to a trade and you money is on the line your limbic system is likely to kick in, and it is powerful.  At this point you are managing strong emotions and if you have not made your plan before this happens, your judgment is likely to blur.

This is any trade, short or long duration.  Have a plan before you enter.  Even if you do an OKAY job of this, you will benefit immensely from the process.  If you are following someone else into THEIR trade, then it is even more important that you formulate your own plan.  Your plan will be your boulder to lean on, not some HOPE in a stranger on the internet.

I think we emphasize this extensively on this blog.  And it’s worth being reminded of consistently.  If we want to achieve success in trading we need to carry the right mentality, the right area of focus, and improve our execution.

A few of my positions made nice moves into the weekend.  Today felt like a trend day down through lunch in the Nasdaq and the SPX with the Russell leading.  We found our first buyer response fairly deep into yesterday’s Nasdaq range.  However, when they did strike, they did so with a reasonable amount of tenacity.  The morning was about feeling the revision burn, and the afternoon kept us up in the upper quad of intermediate term balance.

In short, this was a long week, and the third quarter is nearly complete.  If you have not already done so, it is time to tighten your game up and stack some wins up into quarter end.

Regarding BABA, this is a 1/2 position based upon sentiment.  This think opened high, ripped, pulled back to the open, tested lower, and then returned back to the open.  My plan is to give the trade 10% risk to from my entry.  Targeting a $100 roll to $120, do I think it’s possible?  Yes, and I am willing to accept being wrong.  Trading is much simpler when you don’t convince yourself you are right.

Look for some fun theory over the weekend on the ole’ blog. Have a great weekend while it is still officially summer.

Lunch Is Served

I procured and fastened a few shares of BABA to my plate.  Nomb nomb nomb…What are you guy’s having for lunch? Anything good?

BABA

You Think This Is Bad?

GOGO3
I haven’t even begun dropping bombs.  You have only seen the tip and below an iceberg lurks too cold to melt.  You came into the game and started shorting momentum stocks, like the world owed you something because you are so god damned brilliant.

Well we’re all brilliant until they lodge a 10 bagger straight into your derriere.  Goodness, this post has already degraded to your level, to sodomy.

Do you see what happens when you let the wolf out of his cage?  They had me running across town thrice today, for some next level matters that oddly enough had to occur Thursday OPEX like what?  I just have to work this today?

I have enough nearly worthless paper to buy a modest sedan yet by some egregious feats of winship this book of mine is still green on the month.  Disgusting, I have so much work to do, figuring out how I could have avoided taking a few of these trades before my body decays another month.

For now, all I managed was a small scale of my September GOGOs (I still have a few Septs and some Octs) and buying more time in P.  Believe, not like Seal, well a bit like Seal, but also a bit like R&B sensation R.Kelly, that I intend to ride this position like a golden unicorn straight to Gomorrah.

If I do not report immediately to some heavy metal there is a serious option of violence.

May you be safe, healthy, and have ease of being…for you and me, now we dance

Wake Me Up

The Fed and Yellen press conference that followed were enough to jar the financial complex where the dollar went on a rally and equities printed some big neutral sessions.  Under the surface some momentum stocks are running, others are not.

The key is staying focused on price action, the auction, and using the information as best you can to predict future market movement.  Anything ‘bigger’ than this, like extrapolating fundamentals onto a 4 day trade is sheer lunacy.  Focus on price action, volume, and leave the rest for the pundits.

We are back in the middle of balance, the dip was bought, and there is still Scottish independence to price into the market.

QE infinity

Before You Go

The action leading into the fed was close to lockstep with the primary hypothesis.  Once the information hits the wires conditions are likely to change.  This might sound a bit loopy but, I am looking for the third reaction to provide some direction.  That is, the reaction to the reaction’s reaction.

Try to keep up.

Talking book, I bought some more time in GOGO because that daily chart is just how I like it, and I joined the NMBL trade.

No one knows quite how much noise The Fed wants to make today, so keep an eye on your risk.

Godspeed mates!

[Select] Yesterday, Edit->Undo

When you have a key piece of market profile context, a model if you will, and you use it as part of a forecast, this is a process.  There are many other processes and plans, but market profile is mine.  Without me it is useless, but together we are effective and helpful for navigating the markets.

There is a big element of luck in trading.  Professionals might claim otherwise, but for as much skill as the activity requires, it also benefits from the hand you are dealt.  I have always found the harder I work, the luckier I am.  Staying humble and accepting that you can only focus on the process and be happy no matter the outcome is the core mindset needed for trading.  Today China juiced the markets, tomorrow the Fed might yank more juice than we expect, this is the flop, if you will.

If you do your job well and lose money, you can still be happy with yourself.  Periodically, check the numbers, and make changes to your methodology.  This should always be done outside of market hours otherwise you are likely to be swayed by emotions and pulled many different directions.

When the markets become fast traders have a tendency to break rules.  When they break rules they lose money, when the lose more money than they intended they either are knocked out of the game or put on tilt.  You need to work on yourself more than you need to work on understanding the latest indicator or macro correlation.  Take trades, keep good stats and recording, learn, adjust, and keep taking action.

All of that said, here we are.  We knew intermediate term balance had not been breached, and why should it BEFORE all the major news comes out?  Then we had this beautiful long liquidation profile yesterday, a temporary phenomenon of order flow, temporary.  These words are chosen very carefully when communicating with you, finest people of the interwebs.   Patrons of iBankCoin, I humbly submit my actions to you today: nothing, a nap.

It took every bone in my body to restrain from buying this morning, just as it took many of those same bones to grin and bear yesterday’s furnace of losses.  I can look at my performance over these last two days with a big ear-to-ear, wondering if in fact R.Kelly will make a proper appearance before Friday.

That is all.

Godspeed and kisses,

Raul

Bear Witness To The Long Liquidation

What we just observed today was the rarely discussed counterparty to the short squeeze.  My friends, this is what a long liquidation looks like:

09152014_marketprofile_NQ-bSHAPE-Ah

This is a temporary market phenomenon where an aggressive other timeframe enters the market early causing an elongated profile.  However, instead of continuing to trend for the rest of the session, the market instead comes into balance.  When this day type occurs in the context of a downtrend, there is not much you can take away from it—you just know longs were liquidated which is part and parcel to a downtrend.  However, inside the context of an uptrend, this day type often serves as a pressure release valve which blows off some steam (tosses a few pikers into the furnace) before continuing higher.  Today’s also featured a responsive buying tail, thus the bulls have a few contextual pieces to hang their hat upon.

The extension lower traveled a bit further than I expected, which elevated my concern a bit.  I might have missed an opportunity to buy some cheap charts, but part of me wanted to wait and see tomorrow before taking any action.  The kicker is Wednesday.  There is literally USA QE pace on the agenda for mid-Wednesday trade.  You would be a damn fool to not expect price movement on the news.  No matter the nature of the news, because I am not one of those analysts, there will be a reaction, and then a reaction to the reaction, and then we likely will have a pretty clear picture of how the next few days of trade will play out.  This is big league price action going into the end of Q3.  The price action this week is way above my pay grade.  I will wait for these big waves to woosh through the market place, apply auction logic to the footprints, make an educated guess about the next 2-3 days, position accordingly, and manage risk to make the money.

In summary, today we printed a b-shape profile.  These are temporary phenomena, especially during an uptrend.  We have been in intermediate term balance for 16-sessions, why break it before the BIGGEST ASSED piece of information is introduced Wednesday afternoon?  And I may not be aggressive enough, opting to not add risk today.

However, I have enough risk to tide me over, so don’t worry about your old pal Raul.  I was down about 6% today.

SOLD

The market opened today and was an institutional sale.  We had a directional drive lower off the open and it carried a bit of follow through as early knife catchers were liquidated.  With the move went many of the momentum stocks, possibly due to the Nasdaq and Russell leading the way lower.

Since my daily analysis is a point of pride, using the wrong start date for several analysis to describe intermediate term balance sucks.  Once that small change was made, the downside imbalance became abundantly clear.  Last week we were on watch for shenanigans, it appears said shenanigans were held off until today.  Old school iBankCoin bad boy Scott Bleier had a name for this—day of terror, we see about two per month in the QE environment.

Moving on, I booked my GPRO investment just shy of $70 after we nearly touched my $72 price target this morning.  Many of you thought I was a bit batty, buying this IPO and calling for $72, when in reality I was dead on.  The truth is, no one thought I was batty, instead the call was mostly overlooked.  It shall go down as my best investment call ever, to date.

I stopped out YELP early, LOCO is on the fritz, and PBPB is dead money but has me craving peanut butter.  There is still a bid in the slower names, V does not look horrible nor do my October calls.  I tried grabbing the GOOGL knife this morning, expecting some dastard reversal to print some epic hammer.  All I have is a flesh wound to show for it.

Finally, everyone has their own style of trading.  Just look at the numbers and make sure you maintain a positive expectancy.  I scale, and scaling allowed me to milk a big profit out of WB.  I still have a small piece, which is down a stupid amount of money, but the emotional toll is practically nonexistent.  As I continue to develop, this consistent victories keep me focused and sharp.

Embrace the day of terror, do not let the initial blow of its impression knock you off your feet.

FOOD MODE

If there is one vice I simply embrace it would be my passion for food, lots and lots of food.  There is this vegan eatery nearby my home.  There food is fantastic.  The problem is how tiny their servings all, like a bird’s portion.  I am an ox, I order three entrées.  You have to be willing to compromise sometimes.  If I want massive portions of healthy food, then I have to pony up some extra cheddar, you dig?

Fine foods can be like a diamond in the ruff out here in the mean suburbs of Detroit.  I am sure it is nothing like the backcountry, dire choices some of you face, but to procure something light on the sodium and disgusting fats takes some digging around.  How do I dig exactly?  Well with YELP, of course.  Great app, I like chart even better. I bought some to wrap up the week.

This position adds to my food empire, which includes another undersized food proprietor, Potbelly, and a California delicatessen second only to In-And-Out, The El Pollo Loco.

As you can see, my book is laden with foods, delicious casual dining experiences we can all confidently enjoy.  There are all sorts of other moments that were special about today, like dumping my transitory hedge for a scratch at the low of the day.  That was special.  These types of executions bring a warm feeling to my heart and make me hungry for more winship.

Stay hungry my friends.

Now I am off to sacrifice a few organic chickens to my belly gods.

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