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Let’s talk about AI and crocodiles

“The rare sight of sharks and crocodiles feasting on a huge humpback whale carcass has been recorded off Australia’s Kimberley coast.  The spectacularly gruesome footage was recorded after a tourist cruise boat spotted a massive object floating in the sea north of the remote Montgomery Reef.”

ABC News, November 28th, 2017

NOTICE: There will be no discussion today on the RAUL blog regarding crypto currency.  You are on your own.  There is something much bigger and primal to discuss.  And if you pay attention, it may just improve the way you attack the bitcoin market, or whatever.

You need think about how your brain thinks.  This is important.  One of our firmly held investment beliefs is that we are at the beginning of an era of economic prosperity the likes of which nearly every living human has never seen.

A revisiting of the roaring ’20s, but this time the driver is automation.  Soon our daily lives will be augmented in a big way by AI.  Listen, we are a point where computer power goes parabolic according to the rules established by Moore’s law.

While computers can handle massive feats of calculus like we see in the bitcoin-blockchain-mines, they still lack a human touch.  As primitive as the biological bodies are that we inhabit here on earth, these decaying meat sacks are still impossible for us to build.

We have investments in CRISPR that are challenging this impossibility.

But my favorite theme going into 2018 is humanizing AI.  When I was out in California I had a conversation with a girl who reached out to Match.com and demanded all the information they had gathered on her through her use of Tinder.

They sent her over 500 pages, many of which were downright humiliating.  Think about what is going on when a person uses Tinder.  You are seeking companionship, maybe even love.  At a minimum you are curing boredom through snap judgement of other people.

In any case seeking companionship is a time of human vulnerability.  Desperation even.  There are all these societal pressures as you grow older, especially around the holidays.  To pair off and procreate.  It can drive weaker minds into a panic.
Humans fear being left behind.  Abandoned.  Excommunicated.

There are a few conversations every year that I walk away from firmly believing an opportunity exists.  I have not had one since the CRISPR situation back in Q1.

Match Group is the next big one, ticker symbol MTCH aka Lil’ Mitch.

Investing and trading are one in the same for me.  There are long periods of nothing.  If you become bored you run the risk of finding ways to justify taking action.  Action for the sake of activity.

This used to be a big problem for me.  Then I started to study to crocodile. Why the crocodile?  Because the species has been roaming the earth for hundreds of millions of years, unchanged by evolution, because it was properly equipped to survive on planet earth before any trace of humans even existed.

How does a crocodile behave?  It waits.  It uses very little energy, loafing around in a puddle of mud, not moving for days-weeks-YEARS.  Then, all at once, with absolute tenacity and certainty it strikes.

And feasts.

A crocodile can go up to three years without eating.  It can fast.  It can wait.

So when Tinder parent Match.com hit my radar in late-November I pulled up a chart, much like I always do, and I decided where I am going to sit, like a floating log, waiting for my opportunity to strike.  I decided to wait at $26, look:

But life does not always work out perfectly, and sometimes you have to inch a bit further ahead, especially when you have contextual reason to believe your meal may not fall right into your mouth.  In the instance of MTCH, we had repeat bullish signals coming out of the Sunday quant.  I knew I needed more exposure to stocks before the rising tide began lifting all boats.

So as I barrelled down the interstate, traversing from Jackson Hole-to-Detroit, I was having a running dialogue with my OG homie:

I am sharing all this behind the scenes information for the simple fact that I want you to see my thought process and how I act when it comes to investing.  I do not seek your admiration.  These are the ramblings of a salty old reptile.  But if it helps a 21 year old version of me to be more PATIENT, then there is a better chance they will survive their learning years and become a successful steward of their own investment decisions.

That is all I really fight for out here on the blog, to liberate the small-to-medium sized investor from the fees and charlatans that exist in the world of finance.

It really is not that sexy.  Being a crocodile is boring most of the time.  But once you have sunk your teeth into a trade properly a few times, and you develop a taste for blood, it is hard to go back to living a normal life.

We are at the precipice of something huge here.  Feeding massive data sets of raw, vulnerable interactions into a learning computer might be a way to make humans more comfortable inviting a servant robot into their home. Match group is sitting on an extremely valuable data set.  They are also growing their revenues and earnings:

It would not surprise me to find out Google or Facebook or Amazon has Match Group on their radar.  That Google executives are waiting in the fringes like crocodiles, wondering when they can sink their teeth into the glorious data set hiding behind these corporate walls.

Now that my feeler position is up +10% I have to grow some huevoes and average up.

#developing

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Nobody on Twitter is talking about $TWTR, they are all obsessed with blockchain

Listen to me, I do not have enough time to formally address you, the finest people of the interwebs, about an important social development.  However, it is vital that it be noted.  Therefore I am panic typing this brief message to you before I return to my laboring.

My services are in extremely high demand this time of year and I have been pulled into a courting dance set to take place at an ungodly hour Thursday morning, and I have to be on my best behavior.

I may even shave this disgusting beard.  Probably not though, it contains all my strength.  These are old white men I must address through, and they often say my black beard makes me look like a terrorist.

Maybe that is a good thing, to scare them a little.  I cannot call it.

MOVING ON>>>>

Are you freaking kidding me!?  Nobody is talking about the 10 bagger Twitter shares threw down yesterday.  Our new authoritarian regime took control of the free world by enraging the domestic herd.  This vile movement, with all the trimmings of hate and fear, happened almost entirely on Twitter.

The world was taken over using Twitter, you do realize that yes?

Say what you will about @Jack or @Dick, these guys are in charge of the most important platform of words, which are like bullets in a machine gun, on the internet.  And therefore @Jack and @Dick are in charge of the most important platform in the world.  Because the internet is the most important thing in the world.  A thought can reach billions and billions (extra Trump) of people in hours.  The internet is like a printing press powered by nuclear bombs infused with alien blood.

So when this dog of a stock finally exits a looooong period of discouragement without the sounding of trumpets, fucking five alarms go off in my demented head.

Everyone is enamored with crypto investing.  Their obsession with instant gratification has blinded them to the slower, more satisfying pleasure of long-term success.  Deep, and slow, like Barry White.

As you probably do not recall, which is fine, I added to my Twitter investment a few weeks back when my mind was unhealthy and full of disgust for mankind:

Listen, I added to my Tesla investment yesterday.  I started to write a piece about why I bought more Tesla, but the words that came out read like something from 4chan.  I realized a disease state had taken hold inside my body, some kind of dark aberration.  I had to draft the piece and go sit silently on a rug for two hours.

Then I came back to my computer and added to my Twitter investment also.

I spent the rest of the day reading old philosophy books and working in the gardens.  Then I stayed up late to watch the Tesla semi event and crypto-fork.

I do apologize for becoming so vile in November.  I had been in my fish tank too long and had no idea how murky the water was that I was swimming inside of.

But alas, when I added to my position it reduced my cost basis from 27 to 25, and do you know what that means?

By golly a Christmas Miracle.  For the first time in a year and a half my massive Twitter position is in the green.

And that is not important.  What is important is that NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT THE TWITTER RALLY.

Therefore it shall continue.

So it is written, so it shall be.

AMEN AND CIAO

 

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No Signals Heading into Month-end; iBC Labs Neutral

Greetings lads, the 149th edition of Exodus Strategy Session is live.  The algorithms that we use to form a directional bias are all neutral.  There is a slight, very slight hint that bulls will be in control.

Pair that with markets hovering at record highs and it seems like favoring longs is the move next week.

Aside from the report, it is currently about 90 degrees in Michigan in the fall.

Good time to find someone who has not closed their pool yet and have a chill and relax.  That is exactly what the team of scientists at iBC labs intends to do.

Good day to you.

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Still Neutral: iBankCoin Labs Has No Bias into Mid-July

Greetings from the northeastern coast lands of America.

The air is brisk and smells clean.  The wind is fresh and the water is clear.  While tick infestations have managed to climb into the mid west, pest conditions up yonder are safe.

In town there are 375 different coffee shops offering blistering fast wifi, and with it contact was made with Mothership, which runs on Jet Fuel Only.  Mothership was commanded to make several passes over the financial markets and assess the behavior of the auctions.

While they seem somewhat healthy, no clear directional forecast emerged from the systems.

Therefore we are neutral, and overall just happy to be here.

July is a fine month to explore lands often dominated by arctic winds and hellish ice.  But remember, water always wins.

Exodus members, the 139th edition of Strategy Session is live, enjoy!

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Holiday Trading Kicks in Soon: iBankCoin Labs Heads into Month-end Blind

Greetings from the cool northern planes lads!

It is with humility, and three days without hot food that the good scientists of iBankCoin labs took to the satellites to connect with mother ship and prepare a strategy session for the end of June.

Last week we came out with a bearish call.  Come Monday, before we even had a chance to take action, the market made it evident that selling was a fool’s errand.  A pro gap up and opening drive higher nullified the Sunday reading.

Sometimes you have to improvise if you intend to survive.

Therefore, it comes as somewhat of a relif that the systems generated a neutral reading heading into next week.  Neutral, barely, by 0.02.  Still, the model is neutral.

We are headed into month end, and into a weekend most 9-5 corporate slaves will use to celebrate AMERICA earning its independence.  Then they will independently imprison themselves back to their low-purpose job.  Summers were intended for man to fart around, following whichever whim pulls at him most.  Do not let anyone tell you otherwise.

Models are neutral, the heat wave has passed, we are blind headed into July.

Exodus members, the 137th Edition of Strategy Session is live, go check it out!

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NASDAQ Flush With Gains; Here’s Your Mid-morning Trading Plan

NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap pro gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume and range.  Price worked higher during all of extended trade, trading up into last Wednesday’s range.

The economic calendar is extremely light this week and today is no exception.  The only scheduled events today are T-bill auctions, 3- and 6-month auctions at 11:30am.

Last week we traded sideways, more-or-less.  The week began with a hard sell then we drifted.  During this time the Dow Jones diverged higher.  Below is the performance of each major index last week:

On Friday, the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down. Price opened nearly flat, just a slight gap down which buyers were unable to close.  Instead we drove lower early on.  Sellers ultimately could not take out the Thursday low and we instead settled into two-way trade.

At the open the /NQU7 (September ’17 contract, current front-month) printed an open-test-drive up. Price traded up the the Exodus Strategy Session’s weekly ATR band before churning sideways for a bit.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to defend the measured move level at 5725.75 sending us lower to test last Friday’s high 5707.50.  Buyers defend ahead of 5700 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers sustain above 5752.75 setting up a move to target 5775.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 pole climb. Price sustains above 5777 setting up a trend up to 5876 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Watching Bill Nye and Bernie Sanders Explain Climate Change Facts on Facebook Is Your Job Today

If you only do one thing today, let it be watching that nice old man Bernie Sanders, who totally would have won the American President contest, host everyone’s favorite pop scientist Bill Nye for a conversation on Global Warming.

The fact-laden conversation goes down live, today, on Mark Zuckerberg’s devious platform, at 10:30am eastern.

If you only do two things today, let the second be to inform the biggest conservatard in your life that this live event is going to be lit (you may have to translate ‘lit’ to ‘a real sock hop’).  Perhaps it will trigger them so they can look like a dumb galoot over on Facebook.

Here’s a link to Uncle Bernie’s Facebook page, the venue for today’s free show:

https://www.facebook.com/senatorsanders/

 

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Why Is Twitter on Instagram and Paying for Followers?

Twitter is many things to many people.  For my niece and her friends it’s a giant group chat.  I count on my stream to interact with some of the most intelligent traders in the world.

They say Trump’s rise to the presidency is fueled on tweets.

So it’s powerful and valuable.  But it’s been a terrible stock to own.  I have tons of it.  From higher.

And just when I thought they couldn’t do anything else dumb, I have to stop and wonder why the hell they opened an Instagram account and began running promoted content Thursday.

So far they’ve posted three punctuation marks and hashtag Statue of Liberty.

Screenshot_20170119-224905~2

If Twitter is promoting their content in the traditional way, then they’re shelling out money to Facebook, owner of Instagram, and in return gaining one of the internet’s most highly coveted achievements—an audience.  Usually these ‘followers’ are phantom accounts who produce little if any interaction.

Twitter has to know this.  Why would they pay for it?  Perhaps they didn’t….

Could Facebook be dropping subtle hints that they’re preparing to blob Twitter into their social media hedgemony?

 

Developing…

 

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Tomorrow Obama Will Decide Whether or Not to Start World War 3

The operative word here is start.

Obama and his neocon foreign policy advisers are going to meet tomorrow to discuss whether or not they should begin targeting Syrian forces. They will promote this as a cause to end the carnage in Aleppo, which we started and caused by permitting weapons to be moved from Libya to Syria — not to mention the power vacuum caused by a premature exit from Iraq.

Unlike Russia, we’re technically and fundamentally invaders in Syria. Demonizing Assad is pointless, when in fact the alternative is far worse.

Some top officials argue the United States must act more forcefully in Syria or risk losing what influence it still has over moderate rebels and its Arab, Kurdish and Turkish allies in the fight against Islamic State, the officials told Reuters.

One set of options includes direct U.S. military action such as air strikes on Syrian military bases, munitions depots or radar and anti-aircraft bases, said one official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

This official said one danger of such action is that Russian and Syrian forces are often co-mingled, raising the possibility of a direct confrontation with Russia that Obama has been at pains to avoid. U.S. officials said they consider it unlikely that Obama will order U.S. air strikes on Syrian government targets, and they stressed that he may not make any decisions at the planned meeting of his National Security Council.

One alternative, U.S. officials said, is allowing allies to provide U.S.-vetted rebels with more sophisticated weapons, although not shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, which Washington fears could be used against Western airliners.

Sure, this makes plenty of sense. Give these fuckers sophisticated weaponry so that they could wreak havoc with it and install Islamic theocracies. How is this not evident to the pseudo journalists in the media? The rebels are terrorists, plain and simple, allied with Al-nusra aka Al Qaeda.

But Russia hacked John Podesta’s idiotic email box, so that means it’s okay to endanger 7 billion people, including 350m Americans.

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All The Action Is Found Trading Stocks

The index trader and the index investor are getting a bad deal right now.

These trading conditions are prime for error if you only trade an index.

Ranges are tight. Every globex session is normal. Rotations rarely have follow-thru.

The action is slow and getting caught full size into the lunch lull is a recipe for disaster.

Your sugars tank then little things can irritate you. Objective thinking is abandoned and gut decisions override your plan. Maybe you trade more size than normal since range is so small. Then poof, two-months of gains given back in one trade.

Trading from the outside-in usually works best in these conditions–fading the big moves using market profile levels.

Or you can switch over to trading stocks. I have not put the work in yet to get back into trading stocks, but if I even thinking about buying a stock I would be taking advantage of the free After Hours trials going on this week.

It is iBankCoin’s daily broadcast where Option Addict lays out a contextual framework then sets up stocks to trade. Members have been killing it in this slow, trending tape.

I will stick to NASDAQ futures because my planning and statistics and charts and order flow feel give me an edge. When it’s slow I just back off. But soon, when I’m ready to commit more time to work and grind out stocks, you best believe I will be watching After Hours. You should too.

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