Snapback Rally Leaves Investors Stunned

419 views

These last three days may have been the best market profile mash up ever. You troublemakers don’t stand a chance because you’re stubborn. You don’t learn. Let’s recap, shall we?

Monday – fuck Monday

Tuesday- neutral extreme down, shorts end day with elevated conviction

Wednesday – neutral extreme up, shorts blindsided and now setup to be squeezed

Today, junior – good ole’ fashioned NEUTRAL DAY

I take it back. You learn things. You learn to rely on your perceptions, and the market exists to alter them. Yours is an intelligence handed down from hard lessons. Mine is adherence to statistical probabilities, advanced market structure logic, and objective judgment. Who do you suppose will last 10,000 years, etched into stone by the plebeians?

I have the energy of 225 horses pulsing through my veins. I eat more spinach then 10 men. I could snap a 2×4 across my back like a dead twig. When the market presented a 3rd neutral after 2 of the low-probability neutral extreme variety you were screwed. Perceptions are heavily weighted toward recent events. Probabilities are foundation stones formed over years. Build yours up and build atop them, else be washed away by the hurricanes of time.

Important Programming Note: My twitter handle has changed to @IndexModel. Be sure to tell your neighbors and friends, but not your wives.

YOU’RE GONNA PAY UP

379 views

Conditions this morning were perfect for a Morrie’s wig shop short squeeze. Profile alignments are not always so ideal, but when they are you must be ready to strike with conviction and vigor. Now that it is the afternoon we can see that tape speed has been reasonable. This bodes well for the bull camp. Considering the horror this week has already presented, I would be remiss to turn off the fasten seatbelt. If I did passengers would freely roam the cocked pit, purposely touching their bums to others crotches and such. These conditions are more, “Stay in your seat, but go ahead and fill your Bloody Mary to the brim.”

Most of you are in a pickle—a middle seat of sorts. Take the Tesla haters, they are doomed and can resume living in a cave, staring at shadows on the wall. But really it is anyone who lacked the intestinal fortitude to buy a crashing market.

You are now presented with 3 options and they all stink. You can short the rally, sit elbow deep on your hands, or buy atop 5-sometimes-10 percent moves.

I am in no such predicament. Mine is a bit more complicated, yes, but long only, cash low, and eyeballing certain exit strategies, slowly.

I HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO MY BOOK TODAY.

Market Dip Performance Recap

333 views

I flipped bias too soon lads. It was last Friday morning. The summer looked promising and I rode the initial bear move down rigorously. After the short was covered I was full puffed chest, so I immediately flipped long. Then I went longer late Friday afternoon. Then I caught the worst case of the Monday’s ever in the history of bad Monday’s.

As a result, despite the Nasdaq being 400 points off the low, I am still about 75 points under water.

My only Monday morning horse, APP, old APPy, is down like 16% and just a consecutive reminder why I should stick to doing what I do best and outsource ‘stock picking’ to the Space Alien Magician and his robot brain trust.

I will take my loss in APP and I will ride my other longs back to glory. Today was all about sitting. I sat and watched my book churn lower while sucking down caramel frappucino and fish salad, the most addicting vice I’ve ever encountered.

Today ended up a neutral extreme up after we printed the opposite yesterday. That’s classic conditions for a short squeeze—a short squeeze that shall propel the Nasdaqari 75 points higher to bail out your boy.

Relying on Uncle Kurt

587 views

Coming into the week I wanted to see the Russell average lead to the upside. It was the most resilient index during last week’s horror show and if it could turn around and play offense after presenting a decent defense then I would get excited. But that is not the case. In fact Uncle Russell is the laggard thus far.

We started the day off high on hope. The situation was desperate last night and fiddly-doo we woke up to the fix. This sort of bipolar behavior is normal in my native Michigan. We have a saying, “Don’t like the weather? Take a nap.”   I was up about 6% this morning but here at the close my book is barely up two.

By afternoon I managed to regain my bearings and step back into Nasdaqs to offer liquidity. It went well. I was able to dial down to the 1.5 point renkos. I imagine the 0.75 point reknos will stay on the shelf for a while.

I am constructive this week. We have alignments that bode well for bulls.   But if the Russell doesn’t go Snake Plissken soon I may duck and cover.

 

I AM WITHOUT HEDGE

312 views

I booked my BIS a few minutes ago, locking in about 18% in gains and also stopped out of my small NUGT runner.  Now I am long only with cash up to about 25%.  More later.

Huge Overnight Buy Wave

335 views

Nasdaq futures are higher on the globex session after printing another extreme session. The range and volume both exceeded 3rd sigma which means statistically it was rare session. Price action was contained inside yesterday’s range, barely. We printed a double top at Monday’s high 4196.25.

The economic calendar picks up steam today. We have the Case Shiller-20 at 9am, Markit Composite PMI at 9:45am, and both Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales at 10am.

Yesterday price opened gap down and quickly pushed lower before triggering a circuit breaker. At this time we had closed the open gap from 10/22/14 at 3950. Next we saw an aggressive push higher which lasted into lunchtime. Buyers stalled just before last Friday’s close and price rolled over. By the close of the session we traded back down into the lower quadrant of the day.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and test lower. Look for buyers to defend 4122 and then a push to take out overnight high 4196.25.

Hypo 2 sellers push down through 4122 opening up a push down to 4139.50.

Hypo 3 Tuesday grind mode sets in, and we churn between 4150 and 4100 with a slight downward skew.

Levels:

08252015_NQ_VP

INSANITY

551 views

I run a renko chart for triggering entries into [and out of] Nasdaq futures. They are great charts because the candle print is based on movement in price not time. I usually run a 0.75 point bar, when pace picks up I switch to 1.5 pointers. Today I was running massive 3 point renkos and they were being machine gunned onto the chart all day long.

50 point unidirectional moves were the norm throughout the entire session.  A feather could push this market 7 handles. I got motion sickness by noon, ate a hammed burger (epic nausea remedy) by 2, and was in a catatonic trance from 3pm to close.

Today changed me. Every teevee I crossed was staring at me like a demonic robot. Phone calls came from relatives and friends. I only traded from about 10:15am-11am then had to stop. There were water puddles by my feet. I was full on losing it.

I bought American Apparel stock, WTF?

I will spend the evening regrouping. Sleep seems unlikely. I need to rebuild several of my charts before I can step back into the fray.

That’s all I can say. This environment is new to me. I am seeking the council of elders just as you should be. But remember: be skeptical of anyone wearing a suit, especially if they have an American Flag pinned to their lapel.

You Need To Hide

606 views

hideDANNY

Your life is on the line this week. Markets are running at high speed. This is reduce your position size and expect to take heat conditions. If you aren’t fully prepared to execute, it will be your limbs we sacrifice to cleanse the demons out of the Nasdaqs.

If we gap up into the week expect it to fade. If we gap down conditions are more ideal for a nice flush and flip. The weekly gap has been a solid fade for months. Of course, this time could be different. It sure looks different.

Exodus members, do you know I write a strategy session every week? And that it is included with your market intelligence software at no extra cost? We need to make sure you are reading this thing—it called the short for 4 consecutive weeks aka it nailed the correction. Anyhow, I just published the latest edition. Check it out.

As for the rest of you, expect your positions to be hunted by psychopathic “liquidity” algos wielding foot long kitchen knives.

 

Sober Thoughts on The Financial Complex

857 views

The markets are not to be trusted. They are driven by cold logic. You know who else used cold logic? Nazis. The soldiers gunning each other down in the financial markets are robots. They were designed by humans but empathy cannot be uploaded.

They care not for their fellow man. Your best defense is to develop your own robots to fight back. If this skill set is beyond your capacity, then form an alliance with a stranger’s robots and invest hours understanding the inner workings.

Certain conditions call for certain market approaches. What worked 2 years ago is not nearly as effective today. A few things remain the same—auction theory is an honest guide to short term behavior, and Exodus continues to dominate FinTech.

In fast times like these your plans (written outside the heat of trading hours) will be tested. Afterwards there is a good chance you will need to tweak your plan. It happens all the time. Remaining stubborn and static is how you end up a cadaver (extra Robert Durst).

I rolled out of QID and into QLD too soon. I felt special, if only for a moment, when we ripped 50 Nasdaqs higher right after I swapped bias. Then we rick rolled, rallied, and rick rolled again. I’ve added to my QLD around the current lows.

You hear “losers average losers” and other mantras spouted off. Please, ignore them, find what works for you, and have a plan. Many come to trading because of the freedom it promises. But ultimately you might find yourself following lots of rules. At least I do. I know my limitations. The good news is you get to write the rules.  The hard part will be following them, especially if you are an impulsive creature like me.

I stuck with BIS to see if the ‘ultimate comeuppance’ is destined to strike the biotech investors. I have a touch of NUGT left too. I feel neutral. However I do not trust these markets. Come noon Sunday I shall have a more firm bias.  Three consecutive weeks of bear calls has me sort of in love with my model, but it’s best trade is its next trade…I hope.

Now I must make haste to a poolside for summer is drawing to an end.

 

FLIP IT OVER

349 views

Fungula logic this morning.  NAS TRIN calling the early down move into question.  Booked QID, sashayed into QLD and took down some SCTY calls.

More later…

Snapback Rally Leaves Investors Stunned

419 views

These last three days may have been the best market profile mash up ever. You troublemakers don’t stand a chance because you’re stubborn. You don’t learn. Let’s recap, shall we?

Monday – fuck Monday

Tuesday- neutral extreme down, shorts end day with elevated conviction

Wednesday – neutral extreme up, shorts blindsided and now setup to be squeezed

Today, junior – good ole’ fashioned NEUTRAL DAY

I take it back. You learn things. You learn to rely on your perceptions, and the market exists to alter them. Yours is an intelligence handed down from hard lessons. Mine is adherence to statistical probabilities, advanced market structure logic, and objective judgment. Who do you suppose will last 10,000 years, etched into stone by the plebeians?

I have the energy of 225 horses pulsing through my veins. I eat more spinach then 10 men. I could snap a 2×4 across my back like a dead twig. When the market presented a 3rd neutral after 2 of the low-probability neutral extreme variety you were screwed. Perceptions are heavily weighted toward recent events. Probabilities are foundation stones formed over years. Build yours up and build atop them, else be washed away by the hurricanes of time.

Important Programming Note: My twitter handle has changed to @IndexModel. Be sure to tell your neighbors and friends, but not your wives.

YOU’RE GONNA PAY UP

379 views

Conditions this morning were perfect for a Morrie’s wig shop short squeeze. Profile alignments are not always so ideal, but when they are you must be ready to strike with conviction and vigor. Now that it is the afternoon we can see that tape speed has been reasonable. This bodes well for the bull camp. Considering the horror this week has already presented, I would be remiss to turn off the fasten seatbelt. If I did passengers would freely roam the cocked pit, purposely touching their bums to others crotches and such. These conditions are more, “Stay in your seat, but go ahead and fill your Bloody Mary to the brim.”

Most of you are in a pickle—a middle seat of sorts. Take the Tesla haters, they are doomed and can resume living in a cave, staring at shadows on the wall. But really it is anyone who lacked the intestinal fortitude to buy a crashing market.

You are now presented with 3 options and they all stink. You can short the rally, sit elbow deep on your hands, or buy atop 5-sometimes-10 percent moves.

I am in no such predicament. Mine is a bit more complicated, yes, but long only, cash low, and eyeballing certain exit strategies, slowly.

I HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO MY BOOK TODAY.

Market Dip Performance Recap

333 views

I flipped bias too soon lads. It was last Friday morning. The summer looked promising and I rode the initial bear move down rigorously. After the short was covered I was full puffed chest, so I immediately flipped long. Then I went longer late Friday afternoon. Then I caught the worst case of the Monday’s ever in the history of bad Monday’s.

As a result, despite the Nasdaq being 400 points off the low, I am still about 75 points under water.

My only Monday morning horse, APP, old APPy, is down like 16% and just a consecutive reminder why I should stick to doing what I do best and outsource ‘stock picking’ to the Space Alien Magician and his robot brain trust.

I will take my loss in APP and I will ride my other longs back to glory. Today was all about sitting. I sat and watched my book churn lower while sucking down caramel frappucino and fish salad, the most addicting vice I’ve ever encountered.

Today ended up a neutral extreme up after we printed the opposite yesterday. That’s classic conditions for a short squeeze—a short squeeze that shall propel the Nasdaqari 75 points higher to bail out your boy.

Relying on Uncle Kurt

587 views

Coming into the week I wanted to see the Russell average lead to the upside. It was the most resilient index during last week’s horror show and if it could turn around and play offense after presenting a decent defense then I would get excited. But that is not the case. In fact Uncle Russell is the laggard thus far.

We started the day off high on hope. The situation was desperate last night and fiddly-doo we woke up to the fix. This sort of bipolar behavior is normal in my native Michigan. We have a saying, “Don’t like the weather? Take a nap.”   I was up about 6% this morning but here at the close my book is barely up two.

By afternoon I managed to regain my bearings and step back into Nasdaqs to offer liquidity. It went well. I was able to dial down to the 1.5 point renkos. I imagine the 0.75 point reknos will stay on the shelf for a while.

I am constructive this week. We have alignments that bode well for bulls.   But if the Russell doesn’t go Snake Plissken soon I may duck and cover.

 

I AM WITHOUT HEDGE

312 views

I booked my BIS a few minutes ago, locking in about 18% in gains and also stopped out of my small NUGT runner.  Now I am long only with cash up to about 25%.  More later.

Huge Overnight Buy Wave

335 views

Nasdaq futures are higher on the globex session after printing another extreme session. The range and volume both exceeded 3rd sigma which means statistically it was rare session. Price action was contained inside yesterday’s range, barely. We printed a double top at Monday’s high 4196.25.

The economic calendar picks up steam today. We have the Case Shiller-20 at 9am, Markit Composite PMI at 9:45am, and both Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales at 10am.

Yesterday price opened gap down and quickly pushed lower before triggering a circuit breaker. At this time we had closed the open gap from 10/22/14 at 3950. Next we saw an aggressive push higher which lasted into lunchtime. Buyers stalled just before last Friday’s close and price rolled over. By the close of the session we traded back down into the lower quadrant of the day.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and test lower. Look for buyers to defend 4122 and then a push to take out overnight high 4196.25.

Hypo 2 sellers push down through 4122 opening up a push down to 4139.50.

Hypo 3 Tuesday grind mode sets in, and we churn between 4150 and 4100 with a slight downward skew.

Levels:

08252015_NQ_VP

INSANITY

551 views

I run a renko chart for triggering entries into [and out of] Nasdaq futures. They are great charts because the candle print is based on movement in price not time. I usually run a 0.75 point bar, when pace picks up I switch to 1.5 pointers. Today I was running massive 3 point renkos and they were being machine gunned onto the chart all day long.

50 point unidirectional moves were the norm throughout the entire session.  A feather could push this market 7 handles. I got motion sickness by noon, ate a hammed burger (epic nausea remedy) by 2, and was in a catatonic trance from 3pm to close.

Today changed me. Every teevee I crossed was staring at me like a demonic robot. Phone calls came from relatives and friends. I only traded from about 10:15am-11am then had to stop. There were water puddles by my feet. I was full on losing it.

I bought American Apparel stock, WTF?

I will spend the evening regrouping. Sleep seems unlikely. I need to rebuild several of my charts before I can step back into the fray.

That’s all I can say. This environment is new to me. I am seeking the council of elders just as you should be. But remember: be skeptical of anyone wearing a suit, especially if they have an American Flag pinned to their lapel.

You Need To Hide

606 views

hideDANNY

Your life is on the line this week. Markets are running at high speed. This is reduce your position size and expect to take heat conditions. If you aren’t fully prepared to execute, it will be your limbs we sacrifice to cleanse the demons out of the Nasdaqs.

If we gap up into the week expect it to fade. If we gap down conditions are more ideal for a nice flush and flip. The weekly gap has been a solid fade for months. Of course, this time could be different. It sure looks different.

Exodus members, do you know I write a strategy session every week? And that it is included with your market intelligence software at no extra cost? We need to make sure you are reading this thing—it called the short for 4 consecutive weeks aka it nailed the correction. Anyhow, I just published the latest edition. Check it out.

As for the rest of you, expect your positions to be hunted by psychopathic “liquidity” algos wielding foot long kitchen knives.

 

Sober Thoughts on The Financial Complex

857 views

The markets are not to be trusted. They are driven by cold logic. You know who else used cold logic? Nazis. The soldiers gunning each other down in the financial markets are robots. They were designed by humans but empathy cannot be uploaded.

They care not for their fellow man. Your best defense is to develop your own robots to fight back. If this skill set is beyond your capacity, then form an alliance with a stranger’s robots and invest hours understanding the inner workings.

Certain conditions call for certain market approaches. What worked 2 years ago is not nearly as effective today. A few things remain the same—auction theory is an honest guide to short term behavior, and Exodus continues to dominate FinTech.

In fast times like these your plans (written outside the heat of trading hours) will be tested. Afterwards there is a good chance you will need to tweak your plan. It happens all the time. Remaining stubborn and static is how you end up a cadaver (extra Robert Durst).

I rolled out of QID and into QLD too soon. I felt special, if only for a moment, when we ripped 50 Nasdaqs higher right after I swapped bias. Then we rick rolled, rallied, and rick rolled again. I’ve added to my QLD around the current lows.

You hear “losers average losers” and other mantras spouted off. Please, ignore them, find what works for you, and have a plan. Many come to trading because of the freedom it promises. But ultimately you might find yourself following lots of rules. At least I do. I know my limitations. The good news is you get to write the rules.  The hard part will be following them, especially if you are an impulsive creature like me.

I stuck with BIS to see if the ‘ultimate comeuppance’ is destined to strike the biotech investors. I have a touch of NUGT left too. I feel neutral. However I do not trust these markets. Come noon Sunday I shall have a more firm bias.  Three consecutive weeks of bear calls has me sort of in love with my model, but it’s best trade is its next trade…I hope.

Now I must make haste to a poolside for summer is drawing to an end.

 

FLIP IT OVER

349 views

Fungula logic this morning.  NAS TRIN calling the early down move into question.  Booked QID, sashayed into QLD and took down some SCTY calls.

More later…

Previous Posts by Raul3