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No Sir, I Don’t Like It

MrHorseSunglasses

What if I told you I’ve spent the entire weekend devising a new scheme for investing my hard earned pesos? If every hot summer minute was spend brooding in a cold office behind computer screens and reams of paper?

There were 57 biotech stocks up over 10 percent last week. Fifty seven. The Nasdaq is literally at all-time highs—not bearish. Last week’s rally was propelled by tech and finance, two pillars of modern society.

I am committed to the stocked market. There are fortunes to be made in these waters. But at the same time I know there are powerful ways to be milked.

There are intelligent ways to generate alpha, and I don’t think it wise to completely abscond from that hard-earned wisdom. So I’m retooling my process of exposing myself to individual stocks. This is all still developing, very much developing. Like always, I’m hoping for the best and planning for the bitter worst.

As for these markets, heading into potentially the hottest week of the year, I don’t like the look. Everyone’s coming into the week with rose colored sunglasses on certain the fix is in.

We shall see. In the meantime, this week’s Exodus Strategy Session is published. Inside it we recap last week’s action and build out the context for the week to come.

 

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RAUL3 IS SWEARING OFF STOCK TRADING

I just got done booking a massive loss from another earnings blow up over at SWI and I figured, you know what? Screw KORS too. I’m done with this gaudy shit, sold.

I am so completely disgusted with my stock/option trading process I could vom across the room Poltergeist style. I performed a little exercise this morning, something to keep me from hulk slamming my monitors. I went through every trade I’ve taken over the last 12 months.

LOL

I’ve given my brokers enough cash via commissions to buy a 2003 Honda Accord with 75k on the odometer in great shape. Whilst churning my book to and fro, I’ve managed to scrape out over 15% in losses. Done.

I’m turning over a new leaf. I cannot be trusted as an operator of stocks. Instead I will be the lazy man I was destined to be.

I am becoming an investor.

Developing…

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Measured Move 2 Complete: Margin Liquidation Style

We went up looking for sellers but all we found were more buyers. We are in the midst of the most gnarly bull run all year. And to think, just 1 week ago today peak new cycle bear-shittery was all the rage.

I have one measured move left, about 15 Nasdaqs higher.

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Measured Move 1 Complete

We’re stalling out a bit right at our first measured move target from this morning.  It is odd, Nasdaq making new highs like this while most else lags.  But, I suppose it has been the opposite enough times, what with the Nasdaq not ATH’ing alongside its comrads.

These measured moves are based on the fib extensions of the last major rotations.  Essentially it’s a way of visualizing where buy stops may exist.

Check it out:

07162015_NQ_VP_MM

 

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Neutral But Decimated

Seeing my book ignite into a 4 alarm fire on a modest neutral day like today is about enough. This is a mean spirited gag of sorts, allowing minor appreciation, book wise, on the upswing, and total and complete decapitation to the downside.

Oh the joys of OPEX.

My newest position with Elon’s cousin over at SCTY is down a quick 4% and I see no reason why I cannot lop off another 3-4% tomorrow. I bought this, against the better judgment of Exodus which is like, “whoa son, solar seasonality sucks hot wind for the next three months and the hybrid oscillator is over heated.”

But here we are. This afternoon weakness will not stick but damn.

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FIND THE SHORTS

185 Nasdaqs ago we had a long talk on a dark Thursday. The end of times was imminent and we prepared for full grid failure and foreign invasion.  By brunch Monday the fix was in, and if you didn’t sit and/or buy into the most recent Tour de Bracket Low then you’re in a most uncomfortable predicament.

On one hand you’ve missed a vicious rally with all the trimmings of a volatile bounce—they’re big, they’re fast.

On the other hand, and more importantly, you have to decide about whether you’re willing to initiate new longs, high atop a leg higher.

I suppose you may even be considering hedging or adding to shorts.

There are nearby magnets north of our current prices. Three gaps were left below, two way below, and we know this market has methodically eroded any and all gaps, but when?

I can say with certainty the market is looking for sellers. It’s really discovering new prices along the way. Sellers are full on no-call-no-show today.

These are short squeeze conditions lads, go forth into Exodus and scour that screen now. THRX, SLCA, and a few more jump out at me.

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MISSION ACCOMPLISHED

It always seems so simple, in hindsight, these plans we lay forth. I booked my QLD (leveraged Nasdaq ETF) earlier. We’re hitting my target here, the old 6/26 open gap.  This is a show of force.  We talked about this.

I’m fairly certain we can run higher, like ridiculously higher from here, from this swing low.   But, meh, I will hang out for now and shoot dice.

Hat tip to The Fly and his almighty Exodus software platform for its freakishly accurate SHOMP abilities:

07132015_SHOMP

Why aren’t you taking advantage of these institutional grade tools?  Do you like making emotional decisions?  You should have emailed me yesterday to set up a personal 1-on-1 tour.  Choose today [email protected].

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Night Man, Your Days Are Numbered

If you managed to make it through last week’s volatility without blowing up, it’s looking like you’ll have a week of respite to decide how you want to position into the heat of summer. Everyone’s favorite Aunt, the honorable Yellen, will head over to Washington this week to field qNa from the House and Senate.

She’s particularly talented at answering yes or no questions with long tales, much to the chagrin of the panelists who each have a small window of time to probe her. It’s an art lads, I highly recommend you tune in for it.

Meanwhile, last week was hellish. If your degeneracy spiked and you opted for can upon can of ale, this week is your chance to right the ship. Switch to white wine, drink it at lunchtime only, and sleep well. America was spit upon during her birthday. Do not think that will go unpunished.

Look for a show of force from US markets this week. Where and how we push higher will tell the story. Exodus members, check out what I mean in more detail inside this week’s strategy session.

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Not Looking Too Hot

There is nothing redeeming about this tape. Liquidity was scarce after the FOMC minutes, and finding a floor for price was no small task.

It seems no one is eager to buy into the summer markets. I wonder why? My book ended the day aflame, down over 2.5% on the session, and I am nearly convinced to liquidate everything but my long term conviction investments.

I didn’t sign up for this—4% intraday moves from an electric utility? My NRG long trades like a biotech.  Never mind my expectations. That which is not working is subject to removal.

Despite my analysis still saying hold steady, this is your side of the table Mr. BTD Bull, down continues to be the path of least resistance. Today has the 2nd weakest breadth readings on the year behind only June 29th—the day that set this whole debacle into action. We’re only about 5% off the annual highs but sell in May, go away is winning so far.

When the market has looked its strongest that’s been an excellent sell signal. Conversely when it looks its weakest it’s been a buy. Eventually , when you call the market’s bluff, you get ran over, but I am sticking to the 2015 roadmap and holding the line. Bring forth the pain.

In the meantime, The benevolent Fly seeks the quell the fears of the plebian class, and has extended the opportunity for public readers to see inside the Exodus algo complex. Take advantage of this generosity—if you want to see the overbought/oversold levels for a stock (3 tickers max!) send your request to [email protected]. You may choose to see the overall market score instead. Also feel free to inquire about The Fly’s last month of buys/and sales.

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Complete Mayhem: Cyber Malfunctions Grip Wall Street

For the love of redundant systems and relay checkpoints, why is the NYSE broken? Coincidently WSJ.com is down. The CME is no longer a hangout for humans, they’ve been locked out and replaced by server stacks.

The systems are failing us at a critical stress point. Fortunately for you, the walls of iBankCoin are heavily fortified. We are a beacon of stability—a lighthouse in the storm if you will.

Listen to me: this is how we shift our attention away from Greece. This is vital.

Data will guide my hand here. 4320 is my “trouble below” level on the Nasdaq. The TRANX is likely to push down soon, and if that sticks that’s reason for caution too. Finally there’s Exodus, immune to cyber instability, churning out actionable stats. Remember, tune out the noise. If you want to see if your stock is flagging oversold, email [email protected]. Let the algorithmic logic and key price levels be your guide.

FOMC minutes in 1.5 hours

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