Sometimes I can put together a pretty clear read on the old market and then go out and punch it to bits for a modest stipend. Heading into this week, that most certainly is not the case. After reviewing all the data I don’t really see anything to lean on and form a bias.

If I were a teevee watching man, I would expect to hear lots of interest rate talk scatted between all the immigration talk. But I do not watch the teevee these days. Nevertheless this week comes down to Thursday afternoon.

I might as well go sit in the woods until then. Cash is still high, I have a hedge of sorts via BIS, and a pocket full of highly explosive growth stocks.

Do you know how the market will act this week?  I am all ears, leave me a comment below.

Exodus subs, the latest strategy session is out.

Let’s be clear about something—we are in the midst of ruthless, spine tingling volatility right now, ok? I want to tell you something—right now isn’t the time to build up a book of stocks and go sit in the sun, alright? Now is about being tactical and playing both sides, like Catherine Zeta Jones.

You may think you are Sean Connery smooth, but unless you are prepared to slap this market down when it goes hysterical you will always be a victim of its fits.

I took a front seat to the ultimate comeuppance, the final Entrapment of biotech bulls, via BIS.

Here’s some non-biotech chart fodder to support my bear trade:

Nasdaq futures are lower as we head into Thursday after printing an extreme range during globex. It started with several hours of trade below the low we printed yesterday afternoon. This formed a clear ledge just above 4230. Then a bounce took hold pressing up above yesterday’s MID before rolling over and trending lower all morning. At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims data introduced more selling to the market and pressed us down below the ledge formed last night.

Also on the economic agenda today is Wholesale Inventories at 10am. Today is also roll forward. US Equities officially roll to the December 2015 contract at 9:30am ET. Some trades stick behind and trade the September contract until more volume shows on the December contract, but I will be using the December contract to determine levels after this morning’s report. The roll forward day usually has fast moves.

Yesterday price started the day with a large gap up and from the open we saw strong selling. Sellers abated slightly ahead of the Apple event but once it was completed they emerged again and pressed into the tape. Sellers managed to traverse all of Tuesday’s range closing price down near weekly lows.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and attempt to close the gap up to 4256.50. Look for them to struggle and price to roll over and continue lower to target 4210.50 with a stretch target of 4200.

Hypo 2 sellers keep pushing into the open and we test down to 4210.50 where responsive buyers show and work on a gap fill up to 4256.50. Look however for buyers to stall and roll over around the 4240 level and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers close overnight gap up to 4256.50 early and set up a secondary leg up to 4290.

Levels:

After 10 consecutive neutral days, bears have struck the ending blow in grand fashion. The always dangerous gap into the week is now in jeopardy as bears throw down a big trend day. The move came on the heels of a second big gap up and price is closing this extra gay Wednesday on the low of this erectile dysfunctioned holiday week.

These are drastic conditions and a reminder that we are still deep in the woods.

The selling has been nonstop, all session, and at every turn. It only paused briefly as we awaited any sign of hope from our overlords at Apple. They gave us nothing but modifications of things already done [most of which I think will be quite useful, but useful never got anyone on the moon].

Prepare to traverse our massive range and probe the other side, long-dicked style.

I finally see a spot I am willing to add to my Twitter investment.  This is a long term hold, and I am willing to endure much more pain.  But many have asked to know when I add to the bird.  I have planted my flag on the $27 handle, for the win.

There is a ton of data to digest over the weekend.  While one could focus their attention on the negative news cycle [we have entered super negative cycle mode] I prefer to fire up my analytical engines and be sure I have all the data segmented and accounted for.

I do this inside the Exodus Strategy Session.  You may think I produce this report as a service for our member class, and there is some truth to that.  But the essence of the research is preparing me to step onto the field and face off against the most sophisticated and resourceful competition the world has to offer.  If you ever intend to take the trading profession seriously, I recommend doing your own research, at least for a while.  Once you know exactly what data is valuable and actionable, it makes sense to automate and/or allocate.  This is any business pursuit, really.

Anyhow, let’s not get too stuffy ova’here. Happy Labor Day weekend, I hope you are enjoying yours.  I will work tomorrow.  There will be a few idiots on Twitter ‘wishing’ the market was open because they are deranged lunatics.  I on the other hand will catch up on all the menial paper work and whathaveyous.  A market holiday Monday is like a free ticket to catch up on 3 months of work.  I can’t wait.

Exodus members, the latest strategy session is published.  If you’re interested in cycle analysis, pay particularly close attention to sections V – VII.

This movie resonated with me big time growing up.  As a kid in Michigan I was surrounded by lakes but always wanted to see the ocean.  This movie appealed to me because of the surfing and exotic California landscape.  But the surfing and skydiving are merely the scene where the classic story of ‘undercover cop getting emotionally attached to the criminal’ plays out.

This template story is so good that Fast and Furious is literally the exact same movie as Point Break, just with cars.  Let’s not even talk about 2015 hipster Point Break, it looks stupid.  I will still see it.

Anyhow with a cast including Gary Busey and Pat Swayze you know it is going to be good.  Add in babes, spirituality, and lots of action and you have the makings of a must watch movie.  The  underlying desires of Bohdi will likely resonate with any trader who values a life free from corporate oppression.

Here’s a great scene where douchy Johnny Utah gets his ass handed to him until super ninja Pat Swayse comes to the rescue:

There was no way bears were going to drag the market into the weekend like a wounded gazelle.  Just when it looked like bulls lost their fight they came ripping back to undo the afternoon bullshit.  This is prime time neutral markets.  We know they will break soon, swift, and decisively.  The only unknown is direction.

I say up.  I see rocket-like gains coming next week with streams of investors left dusted as we propel into the stratosphere.

It has been a pleasure headlining iBankCoin today.  Taking the reigns of the finest financial ship sailing the interwebs is special.  You guys should consider coming out this October’s Investor Conference.  Even though I am not slated to present, I will have lots of my classified documents including my current trading plan with me and I love a good conversation on doing this job full time.

Worst case, I drink myself blind at the VIP party and make an ass out of myself.  I do this better than most.

Think about it, and have a great Labor Day weekend.

PS – I still have some coupons available for the conference.  Email me at [email protected] if you want one.

I am all for keeping the streak alive but this death march into the weekend will not stand.  I demand a voracious, broad based rally into the Labor Day weekend.

For those of you just tuning in, the Nasdaq futures are on an epic streak of neutral prints.  Today is the ninth consecutive neutral day.  You may be asking yourself, “What is a neutral print, and why does this ‘Raul’ fella care?”  I shall lay forth both answers, and more, for you, the investor class to sop up like a crumbled farm biscuit.

Neutral prints refer to the way a day session pans out.  The range of the first hour of trade is considered the initial balance.  We spend the first hour of trade digesting the overnight session and working through any MOO [market on open] orders.  After that, a way of gauging directional conviction of the higher time frame [i.e. anyone whose positions last longer than a local scalper/daytrader] is to mark which side of the initial balance range breaks.  If we break both initial balance high and low, the day is considered a neutral day.  The only variation we can see once we have gone neutral is a neutral extreme where price closes near either session high or low.

Neutral days are a low probability occurrence.  My [somewhat] dated study shows them occurring about 23% of the time.  The odds of printing a second consecutive neutral session are low as well, about 21%.  When neutral days also tend to occur also interests me.  They often happen at or near inflection points.  Therefore, they are the type of event that makes my trader senses tingle.

If you think about what happens on a neutral day, you begin to appreciate them even more.  The market is enticing both higher time frame buyers and sellers to interact with the market.  They are both being aggressive, and neither is making any headway.  All the posturing and shoving isn’t yielding any results.  But lots of compression is built into the market–fuel for the next move.

Now take that combustible fuel and multiply it 9x, and you have our current situation heading into the holiday weekend.  What a jungle.

So bull or bear, you gotta be asking yourself, “Do I feel lucky?”  Well, do ya, mutha fucka!? [Say the first part like Dirty Harry, the second like Sam Jackson]

Anyone who went forth and procured equities this week has been deemed a ne’er-do-well by the soulless algorithms who have decidedly turned a cold cheek to the equity complex.  Ahead of the holiday weekend, it is my duty to bring you market commentary.  I have been summoned from my phone booth and it is with a heavy heart I bring somber news.  The equity complex is going to rehab.

I like pleasuring myself to stock market gains as much as the next fellow.  Each day I strive to rattle my bones by pressing risk right to the edge of intestinal tolerance.  When the sword of youth swings in your favor, ignorance helps you boldly traverse hazardous landscapes–sashaying down urban streets clutching a heater, pressing your life savings into leveraged ETFs, and consuming a variety of high-grade stimulants.  Eventually the way of the hedonist catches up and you either die or go to rehab.  But you must preserve your legacy by all means necessary.

The stock market is a complicated derivative of man.  We attempt to understand it with numbers, and its movements represent the collective actions of its participants.   The greatest quantity of participants are long.  They are long via money they chipped away from corporate boulders one meaningless hammer swing at a time.  They are invested in its continued success and only check on the drug addicts of Wall Street a few times a year.  They are concerned with the recent behavior.  I am too.

The good news is the common investor is worried.  If these recent actions didn’t yield 5-6 phone calls and 20 letters from friends, enemies, and family then I would wonder if death is our market’s fate.  No, instead investors were hit with a wake up call.  Unbridled gains have been put on hold.  The fastest horses have been stabled and we now share the town mule.

This will take time.  Let the children re-acclimate to school.  Soon adults will return to their maniacal pursuit of happiness via spending hundreds of dollars on Halloween costumes and party favors.  This is when they’ll begin neglecting their troubled teen (the stocked market) and all hell can break loose again.