Day After A Trend Day Plus Roll Forward

Nasdaq futures are lower as we head into Thursday after printing an extreme range during globex. It started with several hours of trade below the low we printed yesterday afternoon. This formed a clear ledge just above 4230. Then a bounce took hold pressing up above yesterday’s MID before rolling over and trending lower all morning. At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless Claims data introduced more selling to the market and pressed us down below the ledge formed last night.

Also on the economic agenda today is Wholesale Inventories at 10am. Today is also roll forward. US Equities officially roll to the December 2015 contract at 9:30am ET. Some trades stick behind and trade the September contract until more volume shows on the December contract, but I will be using the December contract to determine levels after this morning’s report. The roll forward day usually has fast moves.

Yesterday price started the day with a large gap up and from the open we saw strong selling. Sellers abated slightly ahead of the Apple event but once it was completed they emerged again and pressed into the tape. Sellers managed to traverse all of Tuesday’s range closing price down near weekly lows.

Heading into today, my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and attempt to close the gap up to 4256.50. Look for them to struggle and price to roll over and continue lower to target 4210.50 with a stretch target of 4200.

Hypo 2 sellers keep pushing into the open and we test down to 4210.50 where responsive buyers show and work on a gap fill up to 4256.50. Look however for buyers to stall and roll over around the 4240 level and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 buyers close overnight gap up to 4256.50 early and set up a secondary leg up to 4290.

Levels: