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Your Future President Plans To Pop The Biotech Bubble

Biotech is taking a hit moments after Hillary Clinton sent the following tweet:

The Senator and hair icon sent this tweet out and my BIS went soaring. You know what I say—I don’t care about the why, only that what.

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Crawling King Snake

More than ever I need to tune out the media. Furthermore, I need foster the ability to listen to other people’s investing/trading opinions without jumping at the impulses they trigger. You’ll have to excuse my defense mechanism which is to aggressively challenge you. This mostly happens on Twitter and Stocktwits. If you come here, to my parcel of tier-one internet real estate, and leave a message—I will be rather cordial. But out on the streets I can be punchy.

I had a serious stat session yesterday morning. I woke up to organ pain. Organ pain is a fun thing that happens when you turn 30 and have about 10 years of binge drinking under your belt. Who needs an alarm clock when high blood pressure is blasting muddy fluid through your veins and arteries? Anyhow, I ran through 8 years of NYSE tick data, clean data from my homies at IQFEEd, and have made some interesting observations around the 3rd sigma tick. It will require testing, but my initial plan is to call these extreme ticks “party poopers”.

I name things. I name statistical anomalies because then they are mine. I have a skittish rescue dog. She is sweet, but always scanning the room for escape routes.  I named her Momo, like those bastard stocks.

Then there’s my baby, Rose Colored Sunglasses (RCS) which nailed the correction. You guys sleep on your boy, so most of you paid no attention when I cried wolf. Perfect, I say. I do not analyze and blog in pursuit of applause or cackling tongues. I do it because I intend to be the best.

Exodus Members – this week’s Strategy Session is published. Check, check it out.

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While The Market Wiggles, Consider Adding REIT Exposure

For the last three months I watched atrocious breadth in the REIT sector. They were completely abandoned as if real estate was dead and interest rates were on the rise. The more I watched it, I was like, “Dude, I need some REIT action.”

I already own a house, and after yesterday’s good news I plan to pull all the equity out and go buy another house to lever up on physical housing.  Make no mistake, we are entering the roaring 20’s and intend to be a rich man. Anyhow, I didn’t really see the need to add residential REIT exposure. Therefore, and with the help of Exodus, I chose DOC. This REIT owns stupid medical office space. These are ugly buildings where one sits for hours despite being “on-time” for their appointment. Doctors invest in this REIT because they’re weird and run in small circles and smell like antiseptic.

I’m not saying buy DOC. Go forth and cast your net into the REIT space on your own. We have 7 different REIT industries inside Exodus. Get in there, parse out the shit with the screener, and find the ones offering sick dividends with promising growth.

With ZIRP fastened in place by The Fed, demand for dividend stocks will increase. With interest rates held down real estate will continue to flourish, all kinds. With REITS left for dead, there are deals out there. These are ideal conditions for REIT exposure, IMO.

Note: I used as many acronyms as possible in this post, FTW

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WE’RE HEADED TO THE SUN

Gentlemen, Ladies…I bring forth good news.  The Federal Open Market Committee received me well. I was offered a seat near the head of the table, naturally. What I proposed was a period of decadence that lasts no less then until Christmas time, a special time, when I hand feed the children butterscotch candies.

Society can now pursue their highest pleasure. Long live the consumer.

My work here is done. Please place me back into my phone booth. Good day.

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Unfettered Pleasure Awaits The Patient Bull

I just received word that the venerable Jeremy Bentham will preside over this afternoon’s Fed meeting. He brings to the table several hundred years of voting experience. His radical allegiance to the dovish faction has often been questioned by reporters. Most recently he was quoted as saying, “Money and its availability is paramount if we are to bring forth society’s hedonistic satisfaction.”

Critics bring attention to his insistence on keeping a set of glass eyeballs in his trouser pocket for the last 10 years of his life. They find his commitment to preserving his body irresponsible and disgusting.  Nevertheless, his headless cadaver’s voting power is likely to sway the cast at the Federal Reserve to delay liftoff until next year.

Alas, stocks continue marching higher as we wrap up New York lunch. Have you had a satisfying meal? Hopefully you left room for the afternoon feast.

 

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Stocks Are Going Up Ahead of The Fed

Price action has been front running the Fed all week as investors nudge back into equity positions. The upward drift suggests a delay in the widely anticipated interest rate liftoff. Data out this morning from the Philadelphia Fed supported this idea, and put an early bid in stocks. Action is slow, but under the surface some names are already showing decent gains.

Breadth has a subtle whiff of strength, starting the day around 60% according to Exodus super computers. Leading the way are small caps. A key context piece to watch today is the Nasdaq transportation index. I put a note in last Sunday’s Exodus Strategy Session regarding this index, see below:

Transports have an interesting look. Price has compressed into an ascending wedge over the last 10 days and pushed back into its range. My primary expectation is for price to make a fast push up and out of the wedge pattern to test the top of range again.

We are seeing this play out and as we head into an important macro event this afternoon the index is pushing up into the well defined upper bracket. Keep an eye on transports this afternoon for an objective take on how the market is reacting to the rate decision:TRANX_09162015

 

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We Can Build On This

Yes, it turns out these hallowed halls have become boolish ahead of the FOMC rate decision. Bias may seem a bit one sided if you don’t venture beyond our walls. But as a scout my task is to ride across the landscape quietly listening to townsfolk.  I can confidently report to you most are hunkered away in their straw houses, cowered in fear.  There are whispers of a headless horseman.  Such a pity, their belief in mysticism.

iBankCoin was built on ancient foundation stones which predate Stonehenge. Our fortress stands as a humble stronghold. Its walls are scorched and stained from countless battles with lesser tribes. Soon we will build new walls, paid for by our enemies.

My book performed beyond my expectations today. The energy play prescribed by Option Addict is up over eight percent. The fat-man’s gym, Planet Fitness closed up from my basis. GARP is up as is my BIS hedge. All of this doesn’t matter though. What matters is how the dust settles Friday.

If I had to guess, I would imagine this battle will end like the 10,000 before it—a definitive win for the iBC consortium. Then we shall drink libations from the skulls of our enemies high atop New York City’s Yale Club.

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Pot Committed

I am busy spinning plates over here but wanted to drop a line because it seems like something special is setting up here. I know this could be wishful thinking, but why do so many charts look so good? Is this the ultimate death knell for technical analysis? Or will this actually be the first month this year where markets stop screwing momentum traders?

I am not trading futures this week. When there’s two contracts being actively exchanged my algos get a bit screwy. I used to fight and gripe, now I just sit it out and talk smack on in the Twittersphere. Also, they’re changing the RTH/Globex hours next week, so I will be sitting out the first few days.

What does this all mean? It means it is time for stocks to make me money, dammit.

I resisted the urge to buy a few of my favorite setups this morning by ‘enjoying’ a cold shower. Then I came back, thought about it some more, and took a starter position in PLNT.

My cash is now down to 10% with BIS on as a hedge.  I will be entering fixed stops tomorrow, and even potentially raising some cash if the opportunity presents itself ahead of 2pm ET.

Algo hunters will be swarming my stocks tomorrow, so placement is vital and must be risk I can acceptably say, “yes, this idea is wrong, cut it.”

 

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Took A Little Nibble

I am resisting the individual stock picking game these days and instead outsourcing my management to the GARP portfolio.  I built it into a Motif on August 24th aka the day that made every chart look jacked up.  Since then some of the positions have made admirable comebacks.  Weighing the basket down is bastard GoPro.  Here’s where it gets fun: GPRO was my favorite stock in the GARP and the one I would have picked on my own, FML right?

Conversely, I would never have looked twice at GTN which is up nicely on the day.

Anyhow, I added some GARP exposure today.  I also bought one of Option Addict’s energy stocks.

Cash is around 15% and I still have a BIS hedge.  I will likely maintain this cocktail until I see Thursday’s reaction to The Fed.

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Stay Sharp as The Tape Slows

Opening trade featured aggressive sellers followed by a real slow grind down.  This action seems constructive, albeit only somewhat, after the spine twisting volatility seen over the last two weeks.  Still, ATRs are blown out across the board and will continue to be until an extended period of compressed volatility.  Said compression may already be underway.  Or we will continue thrashing about wide swaths of price range.  Either way, now is not the time to be aggressive with your bias.

I am watching Facebook.  This stock is consolidating nicely today.  The company is Best in Breed social media, and one of the few unbroken momentum charts out there.  What I am looking for is a nice rally this afternoon from the intra-day compression.  If said rally is sold into [“Rick Rolled” as the kids say] sort of like Netflix last Thursday, then I know we are still deep in the muck and subject to fake moves.

If Facebook breaks down from consolidation, sucks in the short sellers, then squeezes higher, I will still consider us deep in the woods–only Facebook will maintain its AKC Best in Show certification.

Third scenario, one for the dreamers, that would give me some confidence in the bull case, is seeing Facebook break this stupid intraday wedge to the upside then sustain higher prices.  This would be an old school breakout WITH continuation, something practically extinct in modern momentum trading.  A unicorn for the technical analysts.

Scenario 4 breakdown that sticks.  50 basis point rate hike imminent.  Hide your wife, hide your SHAK shares.

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