NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked lower overnight via a push lower around 10pm, a pull back up near Monday’s low that sellers rejected then a second push to new Globex lows around 6am. As we approach cash open, price is hovering near last Wednesday’s low.

On the economic calendar today we have existing home sales at 10am followed by a 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed neutral extreme down. The day began with a gap down in range. Buyers resolved the overnight gap after an open two way auction and continued higher, going range extension up and holding highs until about 1:30pm. Price never took out last Friday’s high though. A first test back to the daily midpoint was supported by buyers but late in the afternoon selling accelerated and we pushed neutral, eventually closing on low of day.

Neutral extreme down.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 8690.75. Buyers continue higher, tagging the VPOC at 8742.75 on their way up though overnight high 8763. Look for sellers up at 8797.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press down to 8567.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trade down to 8532.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the first week of June options being front month down -90 after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight, chopping along last Friday’s midpoint until about 6am New York when sellers poked price a bit lower. As we approach cash open, price is hovering near last Friday’s lows but has not yet exceeded them.

On the economic calendar today we have 13- and 26-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week featured a steady campaign higher with buyers maintaining control of the auction all week across all major indices except the Russell. The Russell was bearish divergent all week. The last week performance of all four major indices is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up, with price trading a levels untouched since March 5th. The high print actually took place during Globex trade late Thursday evening. It is statistically uncommon for swing high/lows to print during non-cash hours. After a brief two-way auction at the open, much of Friday was spent working lower, eventually closing the overnight gap and pushing range extension down. Eventually we tagged the Thursday midpoint which discovered a strong responsive bid. We ramped back up beyond the midpoint into the weekend.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 8808.25. From there we continue higher, up through overnight high 8837.25 setting up a move to 8883.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo two sellers actively defend 8742.25 early on setting up a move down through overnight low 8696.25. Look for buyers just below overnight low and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger sellers trad down to 8633.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight until about 1:30am New York when price spiked higher and took out the Wednesday high. From then-on we balanced above the Wednesday high until a slew of economic data came out at 8:30am (initial/continuing jobless claims slightly worse than expected, building permits better then expected and housing starts worse than expected) sending price spiking a bit higher, making a new high on the Globex session but stalling a few points below last Tuesday’s high. As we approach cash open, price is hovering above the Wednesday high.

On the economic calendar today we have 4- and 8-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a gap down near the Tuesday low. If you recall, Tuesday was a trend up. We spent the day slowly working higher, but unable to fill the overnight gap. Instead the low volume node separating the two distributions that formed Tuesday acted as resistance. We ended the day tapping on the midpoint from above.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 8698.50 and continuing higher, up to 8748.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 8800 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 8591.75. Look for buyers down at 8583.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight until about 3:30am when sellers stepped in and drove price lower. That selling campaign lasted until about 5:30am and moved price down through the Tuesday midpoint. Sellers then reemerged and as we approach cash open, price is moving down near the 8500 century mark.

On the economic calendar today we have industrial/manufacturing production at 9:15am, business inventories and NAHB housing market index at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am and the Fed beige book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up. The day began with a pro gap up and drive higher. This action closed the open gap left behind on 03/06 and after a bit of flagging/consolidation along the weekly ATR band price continued higher, eventually closing the 03/05 gap and ending the day near the highs. Of note, the daily VPOC never managed to shift up into the upper distribution.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the overnight gap up to 8695 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers stall out around 8650 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower, trading down to 8428.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price drove higher unidirectional overnight, continuing a buying campaign that began about an hour before New York lunch on Monday. As we approach cash open, price is hovering inside of the 03/06 range.

On the economic calendar today we have Federal Reserve banker Bullard set to talk about COVID-19 via a Zoom meeting at 11:05am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up. We kicked off the week with a slight gap down. Buyers resolved the gap during an open two-way auction then we formed a tight chop, chopping along and eventually going range extension down in the late morning but never taking out overnight low. Instead the auction reversed, slashing through the midpoint and then using it as a support pivot to push neutral. We rallied right up to the 03/10 open gap and closed near high of day here.

Neutral extreme up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a gap-and-go higher. Buyers tag 8500 and two way chop ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers sustain trade above 8500 setting up a run to tag 8567.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and tag 8400 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume. Globex kicked off with an interesting spike of sorts, higher by +100 then lower by -250 handles. The rest of the session was spent balancing along just below Friday’s low. Then around 6:30am when America woke up buyers drove price back up into the Friday range. As we approach cash open, price is hovering below Friday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week kicked off with a pro gap up and trend day. That set the stage for continuation through Tuesday then a consolidation/flagging along the highs for the rest of the holiday shortened week (markets were closed Friday in observation of Good Friday).

On Thursday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap up and push to new weekly highs before responsive sellers stepped in and close the overnight gap. Price was choppy from then on, walking over the midpoint and back below it before going range extension down late in the session. Eventually price mildly ramped back up to the midpoint and we ended the day there.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to close the overnight gap up to 8228.25. Buyers sustain trade above 8231.50 setting up a move through overnight high 8327.50. Look for sellers up at 8400 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers drive up to close the open gap at 8506.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 8073.25 and tag 8040.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price worked sideways overnight, briefly trading below the Tuesday low around 8pm New York before rotating back up to the Tuesday midpoint, then back down again. As we approach cash open, price is hovering a bit below Tuesday’s midpoint.

On the economic calendar today we have crude oil inventories at 10:30am, 30-year note auction at 1pm and FOMC meeting minutes at 2pm.

FOMC minutes are released on a three week lag. Investors will be keen on listening to how the Fed was thinking in early March, when covid-19 denial was still running high.

Also be aware that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak tomorrow at 10am.

Also remember that tomorrow is the last trading day before the long weekend.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. The day began with a pro gap up that sellers drove down into shortly after opening bell. Buyers initially rejected a move back down into Monday’s range, spiking price higher, up through the midpoint but unable to take us range extension up. Instead price fell back down through the midpoint and made new lows twice in a choppy manner before a buying rotation worked back up to the midpoint. Then we flushed lower into the close, closing on the lows.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 8143 setting up a tag of 8200. Look for sellers up at 8222 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers trade up to 8300 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 8013 then continue lower, down through overnight low 7953.25. Look for buyers down at 7915.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday pro gap up for a second consecutive day after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price was balanced overnight until about midnight, chopping along the upper half of Monday’s range. Then price drove higher, trading up through Monday’s high and exploring higher. As we approach cash open, price is hovering inside of the March 10th range.

On the economic calendar today we have a 10-year note auction at 1pm followed by consumer credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend up. The day began with a pro gap up into the 3/31 range, and after a brief two way auction buyers stepped in and the trend up began. Price was trend up for the entire session, ramping into the close and ended near session high, ending with price in the 3/11 price range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to gap-and-go higher, trading up through overnight high 8303.25 setting up a move to target 8400. Look for sellers up at 8478 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers press into the overnight inventory, working down though overnight low 7948. Look for buyers down at 7910.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers trade up and close the gap at 8506.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the week pro gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range and volume. Price drove higher from Globex open (6pm eastern) until about 8pm, working up to the 7800 century mark which aligns with the lower quadrant of last Tuesday’s range. After a bit of flagging/consolidation a second leg higher took price up near last Tuesday’s midpoint before we settled into balance. As we approach cash open, price is hovering along the 7800 century mark.

On the economic calendar today we have 13- and 26-week T-bill auctions at 11:30am followed by a 3-year note auction at 1pm.

Last week began with a smaller up gap, then a buying campaign that ran higher through early Tuesday. From mid-Tuesday on sellers controlled the tape. Wednesday morning saw prices gap down to a new weekly low then Wednesday formed a wide range as most of the day was spent discovering lower prices. For most indices, the rest of the week was spent trading inside the Wednesday range, balancing. The Russell was slightly divergent to the downside. The last week performance of each major index is shown below:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal variation down. The day began with a gap down in range that buyers quickly resolved on the open. Said buyers took price a few ticks beyond the Thursday high but were unable to break balance. Instead responsive sellers worked price back down through value, rotating down near the range lows (but not exceeding them). Then late in the day a ramp took price back up to value. This action all took place after much worse-than-expected Nonfarm payroll data. This resilience of the tape to weak economic data told a story.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and tag the 7700 composite VPOC. Buyers show up here and work price up through overnight high 7870 setting up a run to 7908.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger sellers work down to 7600 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 even stronger sellers work a full gap fill down to 7518.25. Look for buyers down at 7484.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume. Price was balanced overnight, chopping along the upper half of Thursday’s range. Several times price came close to taking out the Thursday high but didn’t exceed it. This formed a weak high heading into nonfarm payroll data. At 8:30am NFP data came out well below expectations:

USA Nonfarm Payrolls for Mar (701K) vs (100K) Est; Prior 273K

USA Unemployment Rate for Mar 4.4% vs 3.8 Est; Prior 3.5%

Since then price has been stable, despite the soft data. As we approach cash open, price is hovering above Thursday’s midpoint.

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM non-manufacturing data at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up. The day began with a flat but only because futures were moving fast ahead of the bell. A few minutes prior to the open we were gap up by about 50 handles. Sellers worked this gap fill before the open and once opening bell hit we saw a buying drive higher. Sellers stepped in ahead of Wednesday’s midpoitn and reversed the open drive up but said sellers could not take out overnight low. Instead price ripped higher again, making new higher of day and then holding a tight flag through New York lunch. Sellers were active again in the afternoon but their efforts were again thwarted. Another rip took price near the overnight high by end of day, and we closed near the highs, but never actually fulfilled the overnight stat.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 7629.50. From here we continue higher, up through overnight high 7651.50 on our way to tagging the composite VPOC at 7700 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers rally price up through 7700 and tag 7743 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press down through overnight low 7509.50 setting up a move down to 7359 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps and measured moves:

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