NADAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring a (barely) normal range on normal volume.  Price held a 9-point range overnight, near the closing print from Tuesday.  At 8:30am Advance Retail Sales data came out below expectations.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Business Inventories at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, but who are we kidding, all eyes are on 2pm when the FOMC rate decision will be released.

Consensus among investors is that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points.  The key is to gauge the reaction after the announcement for market direction into the rest of the week, and possibly the year.

Yesterday we printed a short squeeze.  There was a strong driver higher off the open, up to new all-time highs.  The rallying continued through lunchtime before some profit taking came in.  Overall the profile resembles a P-shape, a formation often seen when a short squeeze takes place.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to take out overnight low 4934 and trade down to 4923 before two way trade ensues ahead of the Fed.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 4943 and up to 4953 before two way trade ensues.

Watch for the 3rd reaction after the 2pm rate decision to give direction into the close.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, up beyond Monday’s high and the market is sustaining the gains heading into cash open.

The economic calendar is light today with only a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am and a 30-year Bond auction at 1pm.  Investors, however, patiently await the Fed Rate Decision due out tomorrow afternoon.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  After coming into the week gap down an early attempt higher was rejected by sellers.  The defended Friday’s low sending the market into a calm decent.  After going range extension down, the market checked back to its daily midpoint then formed another rotation lower. This one revealed a responsive bid which pressed prices back higher above the mid by the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for an early short squeeze, up to the weekly gap at 4892.25.  Look for sellers up at 4895 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4865.75.  Sellers take out overnight low 4859.50 and find buyers just below at 4858.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers work up to the 4900 century mark, consolidate, then continue up to 4908.50.

Hypo 4 strong sellers work down to 4845 before balance ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap down after an overnight session featuring abnormal range and volume.  Price rallied to new all-time highs before reversing down through the entire Friday range and gap before finding responsive buyers down at last Thursday’s close.

The economic calendar is loaded with US Treasury activity including a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction at 11:30am, and also a 3-and 10-year Note auction at 1pm.  There’s also a 2pm Monthly Budget Statement.

However investors have their eyes on Wednesday afternoon when the Federal Open Market Committee is set to lift interest rates by 25 basis points.  As soon as this afternoon, we are likely to enter a holding pattern ahead of the decision.

Last week saw US equity market in rally mode.  We gapped up into the week and held the move through Wednesday when we began to trend higher.  The buyers pressed for the rest of the week.  Here’s the performance of each major index during the first full week of December:

On Friday the NASDAQ opened gap up and printed a normal variation up.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory to close the gap up to 4892.25.  Look for sellers up at 4895 who work price down through overnight low 4862.  Buyers down at 4856 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 4862 to target 4856 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers press overnight gap fill up to 4892 then take otu overnight high 4916.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong sellers press down to 4847 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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Note: Yesterday, December 8th active traders rolled forward to trading the March 2017 futures contract.  For the sake of the IndexModel, today’s price levels will be reported using the December /NQ contract.

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked up to new weekly highs overnight, and as we approach U.S. open prices are holding above Thursday’s high.

On the economic docket today we have the preliminary reading of U. of Michigan confidence.  With futures rolling over, this preliminary reading can be used to jostle the market.  Be aware of this 10am announcement.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  The gap up was quickly sold to fill down to Wednesday’s close before a bidder stepped in.  The rest of the session was balanced but sellers did manage to extend the range lower, albeit briefly, toward the end of the day.  Prices quickly recovered during the Ramp Capital hour.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to squeeze higher, up through 4881 triggering a move up to 4895.  We are likely to settle into two way trade from here.

Hypo 2 full-on move for the highs, sustain trade above 4895 and a move above 4907 to make new highs.  Look for some traffic around 4900.

Hypo 3 sellers push down to 4864.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 a liquidation triggers, down through overnight low 4852.50.  Look for buyers down at 4847.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price balanced overnight and held the upper quadrant of Wednesday’s trend up.  At 7:45am the ECB announced a tapering of their bond purchases to €60 billion.  The news sent the NASDAQ into a 10-point gyration best resembling a ping pong match (no Comet).

At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data was slightly better than expected.

There are no other economic events on the docket today.

Yesterday the NASDAQ formed a trend up.  A morning attempt lower, testing just below the Tuesday low, revealed a strong responsive bid.  Buyers then became initiative for the rest of the session working up and above the open gap left behind at the end of November.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a move up through overnight high 4854.  Sellers defend just above at 4857.25 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 stronger buyers work up to 4871.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 seller push down through overnight low 4836 triggering and test down to 4827.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong selling pushes down to 4800 then 4789.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the Tuesday range overnight and the main feature of the session is a sell rotation that began around 5am and continues as we approach opening bell.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications came in at -0.7%.  Better than last week.

Also on the economic docket today we have JOLTS Job Openings at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, and Consumer Credit at 3pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Price was choppy and balanced.  In the morning we exceeded the Monday high by a few ticks before falling back into range.  Then just before lunch we went range extension down by a tick before pushing back into range.  Overall it appears the market is in balance and waiting for new information before exploring new prices.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4787.75.  Sellers remain persistent and defend around the Tuesday close 4787.75 and then work down through overnight low 4775.75 setting up a move to target 4752.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers close gap up to 4787.75 then take out overnight high 4795.25 triggering a rally up to the open gap at 4821.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go lower, tag 4752.75 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong sellers push down through 4750 and sustain trade below it triggering a liquidation down to the gap at 4738.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held above the Monday midpoint before working toward Monday’s high as we approach the open.  At 8:30am Trade Balance data was worse than expected.  The data yielded no market reaction.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Factory and Durable Goods Orders at 10am followed by both a 4- and 52-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  We started the week gap up and despite a hard sell to start the session, buyers managed to reject a move back into last Friday’s range.  Instead we drove higher, deep into the move made last Thursday (trend day) before settling into two-way trade.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4780.75.  Look for a move down through overnight low 4772.75 then responsive buyers down at 4752.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through Monday high 4795.75 triggering a rally up to the open gap at 4821.50.  Look for sellers up at 4826.75 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong sellers work down through 4750 triggering a liquidation down to the weekly gap at 4738.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on extreme range.  Price worked down into the 11/14 range before finding a strong responsive bid and trading up into last Thursday’s trend down.

The economic agenda is light to start the first full week of December.  At 11:30am we have a 3- and 6-month T-bill auction.

Last week the NASDAQ was under pressure while the Dow worked higher:

On Friday the NASDAQ printed a normal day.  Price poked just below the Thursday low before revealing a strong responsive bidder.  However, said buyers were unable to press a range extension ahead of the weekend.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to reject a move back into Friday’s high 4759 which sets up a move to take out overnight high 4776.75 to target 4786.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers regain Friday range and close the gap down to 4736.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring elevated volume on normal range.  Price worked down through the Thursday low before finding a bid ahead of the 11/14 open gap.  At 8:30am Non-farm payroll data was stronger than expected:

USA Unemployment Rate for Nov 4.60% vs 4.90% Est; Prior 4.90%
USA Non-farm Payrolls for Nov 178.0K vs 175.0K Est; Prior 161.0K

Third reaction yielded a buy signal off the data.

The only other economic event today is Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend down.  Price opened gap down and drove lower.  The selling lasted all session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 4707.25 to target the open gap at 4695.25.  Look for buyers down at 4694.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 4738.50 and trade up to 4760 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers reverse Thursday, leaving a globex swing low behind, trade all the way up to the Wednesday gap 4808.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday, December 1st flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price took out the Wednesday low and tagged the composite VPOC before settling into balance.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data were out but investors are more keen on tomorrow morning’s Nonfarm payroll reading.

Also on the economic docket today we have ISM Manufacturing at 10am.

According to Exodus December is historically a positive month for the NASDAQ (per the QQQ ETF) however the average return of +0.92% includes 10 years of down months and only 7 years where it went higher.  Likely skewing the data is 1999 when the QQQ returned 24.32% in full, dot com bubble glory.

Yesterday we printed a trend down.  After opening slight gap up sellers pressed hard into the tape early on and continued selling throughout the afternoon.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work down through overnight low 4805 to tag the 4800 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong selling works down to 4768.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers press up through overnight high 4827.50 to target 4829.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers work up into the Wednesday trend down, trading up to the midpoint around 4852.50 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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