There was a hard sell two days after Trump won President but it was a knee-jerk, algorithmic type move.  Otherwise we’ve rallied.

However, in what has become a popular pastime in American market lore, exceeding the most recent swing high introduced a strong seller.  This is the case again Wednesday on the NASDAQ exchange.

It happened inside my two favorite Fibonacci extensions, which I use to gauge whether a breakout is real or just a stop hunter:

The selling that came in today was methodical, resting then cutting through local levels*.  It was initiative in nature, meaning the higher time frame continued to engage the NASDAQ throughout the day via their sell orders.

*market profile levels on any morning report are examples of local levels

Meanwhile, over at the Dow Jones, sellers could not regain Tuesday’s range.  Also the Russell is at its Exodus Strategy Session bracket low–a demarcation line that grades my algo and also draws a proverbial do or die for whether a week ends up being range-bound or something bigger.

If these sort of conversations and observations seem logical to you, and an objective way to assess and engage the markets, it may make sense for you to sign up for Option Addict’s upcoming bootcamp.  He’s proficient in these matters and has a knack for presenting them in understandable ways and you can ask him whatever you want.

I sort of just do, ya feel?

The resilience is coming from the S&P and Dow while our riskier Russell and NASDAQ potentially lead lower.

First of the month action could be fast to the downside.  If it does accelerate, look for any Non-farm payroll data to be used to exacerbate the action.  Same goes if we rally hard into NFP, look for the Friday morning data to stoke the rally.

If we are flatish heading into the data–then use it to gauge direction into Friday and the weekend and may GOD HAVE MERCY ON YOUR SOUL.

NASDAQ CLOSES OUT WEDNESDAY ON THE LOWS…

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held above the Tuesday midpoint on balanced trade.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications came out well below last week’s reading.  Then at 8:15am ADP Employmenty data was stronger than expected, and at 8:30am Personal Consumption Expenditure data was inline with expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, and Fed Beige Book at 2pm.

Option Addict noted a longer-term technical pattern that he perceives as bullish via past observation.  Click here to check it out!

Yesterday we formed a double distribution trend up before falling back down to the lower distribution by market close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for a more to take out overnight high 4885.50and continue higher to 4891 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong buyers push up through Tuesday high 4897.75 to target the 4900 century mark.  Stretch targets are 4917.75 and 4931.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight low 4868.25 and target 4866.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 stronger sellers work down to 4856.75 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held Monday range on balanced trade.  At 8:30am GDP data were released, better-than-expected across the board, knocking the market about 4 points lower.

Also on the economic docket today we have Consumer Confidence at 10am and a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  The range extension up was met by strong responsive selling; the sellers were strong enough to print an excess high in the morning and defend their territory again in the afternoon (rather aggressively, like emotional ape).  After giving back most of the days’ progress, the NASDAQ formed a little ramp higher into the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 4872.25 and push into the emotional seller by testing above Monday high 4879.75 and targeting the open gap at 4888 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 4856.25 and target 4839.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers trigger a liquidation down to 4811.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday with a slight gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, probing prethanksgiving levels before finding a bidder and recovering back into Friday prices.

The economic calendar starts off slow today with only 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week saw most indices trend higher.  The NASDAQ peaked out Tuesday then consolidated.  For last week, here are the performances of each major index:

On Friday the NASDAQ formed a normal variation up but closed right on session high giving the day a slightly more bullish-than-neutral look.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4870.  From here they target the Tuesday gap at 4875 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong buyers push up to 4888 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight low 4842.75 and find buyers just below at 4840 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

 

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher in a balanced session.  At 8:30am Advance Trade Goods Balance and Business Inventories were released and had no impact on prices.

There are no other economic events on the calendar today, however USA markets will close at 1:15pm today, allowing participants to enjoy their family and perhaps fuel the Black Friday consumerism machine.

On Tuesday we opened gap up and printed a weak high before going into balance and drifting into posturing Wednesday of sorts where price worked hard lower early on only to drift sideways into Thanksgiving.  The drift became one of the upward variety during Thanksgiving.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4850.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4842 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers work up through overnight high 4866.75 to target the open gap up at 4875 then continue higher to take out the weak high 4884.75 and target the other open gap at 4888 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 somehow a liquidation triggers.  Price sustains below 4839 setting up a move to target the open gap down at 4808.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked lower overnight, and as we approach cash open the market is probing its Tuesday low.  At 8:30am Durable Goods Orders were much stronger than expected and Initial/Continuing jobless claims were inline with expectations.

The key event today comes at 2pm when the FOMC will release Minutes from their November 1-2 meeting.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  After opening gap up we printed a weak, double high at 4884.75 before going range extension down.  Responsive buyers (responsive relative to Tuesday open, initiative relative to Monday close) defended the Monday high and two-way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push the Monday gap fill down to 4853.25.  Buyers show up here and work up though the Tuesday weak high 4884.75 to target the open gap up at 4888 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4875 then take out 4888 and sustain trade above it setting up a move to target 4900 century mark.  Stretch target is 4918.

Hypo 3 sellers trigger a liquidation after a gap-and-go lower sustains trade below 4850 setting up a move to target 4833.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Tuesday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked higher overnight, right up to the 10/25 session low (current swing high date) before finding a responsive seller.

The economic calendar is light today.  At 11:30am we have a 4-week T-bill auction and at 1pm a 5-year Note auction.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  After a gap up to start the week, buyers drove the market higher.  A responsive seller showed up right around where the strong sellers existed back on 11/10, but said seller was ultimately overrun and squeezed into the end of the day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and test the Monday high 4862.  Buyers defend up here and we work higher to take out overnight high 4881.50 and target 4884.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work a gap fill down to 4853.25 then take out overnight low 4853.  Look for buyers down at 4850 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 stronger selling pushes the market back down to 4833 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 trend up, take out overnight high 4881.50 and target the open gap at 4888.  Consolidate above these prices before a second leg up to 4917.75.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Monday gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held the Friday range in balanced trade which is giving way to buying as we approach USA cash open.

The economic calendar is light today with only 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am and a 2-year Note auction at 1pm.

Last week featured a Monday of selling followed by a rally for the remainder of the week.  The Dow lagged behind and the Russell lead.  Here is the performance of each major USA index last week:

On Friday, an early probe higher discovered responsive sellers on the NASDAQ and once it pushed down to its CVPOC at 4808 it spent the rest of the day in a churn around those prices.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4804.25.  A probe below last Friday’s low 4803 reveals responsive buyers and two way trade ensues around the value at 4809.

Hypo 2 buyers gap and go, make a push above Friday high 4840.50 and target 4846.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 stronger buyers push up to 4870.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong sellers fill overnight gap 4808.25, breach overnight/Friday lows 4803 and trigger a liquidation down to 4768 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked to a new weekly high overnight before settling into orderly and balanced two-way trade.

The economic calendar is breezy today.  At 10am Leading Indicators will drop, and at 1pm Baker Hughes rig count.  That’s all the scheduled events–really light economic docket.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  Two pushes formed the profile–one late in the morning and another in the late afternoon, ramp capital style.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work higher, up through overnight high 4837.75 and target 4846.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 seller work down through overnight low 4815.75 triggering a sale down to 4800, some back-and-forth, then a secondary wave down to 4768.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers work up to 4870 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

 

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday with a slight gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price worked to a fresh weekly higher overnight before settling into balanced trade.  At 8:30am several economic data points came out better than expected.

The only other economic event today comes at 1pm, when the US Treasury will reopen the auction of 10-Year TIPS.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  After opening gap down and a spirited morning drive higher, price settled into a tight little balance up in the upper quadrant of the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to make a push higher, up through overnight high 4803.75 setting up a move to target the CVPOC magnet at 4807.  Look for some struggle here before buyers continue higher to 4820 and two-way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through overnight low 4780.75 and test the Wednesday midpoint at 4767.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 some kind of liquidation triggers.  Sellers drive down to close the gap at 4695.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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