NASDAQ futures are set to enter Tuesday gap down after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price pushed lower early on, deep into last Tuesday’s conviction range before finding a responsive bid and trading back into the Monday range.

The economic calendar is quiet today, but we have a 4-Week T-Bill auction at 11:30am and a 3-Year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral day.  We came into the week gap down.  Sellers made an early attempt lower but were thwarted by responsive buyers who worked up to close the overnight gap.  Just after NYC lunch a strong sell hit the market and price traversed the entire daily range putting the session neutral.  By the close a responsive bid worked price essentially back to where the day began.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4300.25.  From here look for a move to take out overnight high 4304.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4309.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 buyers strong, close gap at 4300.25 then push up through and sustain trade above 4309.50 setting up a move to target 4320 then 4330.

Hypo 3 sellers step in ahead of the overnight gap fill, around 4291 and push lower to test below the Monday low print 4268.75.  Responsive buyers step in ahead of 4259 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong selling works down through the Monday low 4268.75 and continues lower to target overnight low 4251.50.  Stretch target is 4234.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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By the looks of this daily NASDAQ chart, and especially since nobody is talking about it [hint: that’s when technical analysis works] we are forming the right shoulder right now:

Right on the multi-year volume point-of-control:

Bearish conviction kicks in if/when we take back last week’s trend day.  Last Tuesday’s range for the newbs lurking on my blog.  Say hello noob, I am a good guy, and sexy.

You think you can defeat me.  Not if I see you first.  Remember that.

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We just traversed our entire near-term range in 20 minutes.  30 NASDAQs, poof stolen.

I nearly flipped my bowl of pho when I heard 5-alarms coming from mothership.  NASDAQ futures were just set aflame by what appears to be a liquidity drone.

It managed to vanquish nearly any buyer on the session today.  Here is the range we are working with.  Best you don’t press your luck into the extremes of either side aka shorting is already a chase:

I’ll keep working the short side, but that means nothing to you.  Just be aware the market just had its liquidity tested, and it didn’t go so hot.

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NASDADQ futures are set to open gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price spent most of Globex trading down, but in a slow and methodical manner.  As we head into the open, price is pressing down into the low-end of our multi-day balance.

At 10am we’ll hear a read of the Labor Market Conditions Index Change, and 11:30am both a 3- and 6-month T-Bill will be auctioned, and at 3pm Consumer Credit data is set for release.

Last week volatility receded significantly, the most we’ve seen all year.  There was a big trend day Tuesday then the rest of the week was spent consolidating on the upper quadrant of the move.

Friday printed a normal variation up day, with sellers responding late in the session to close the day flat.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4323.  From here look for a move up to 4333 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 seller push off the open, take out overnight low 4296 and trigger a liquidation down to 4279.  Look for responsive buyers here and two way trade to ensue, perhaps with a late day gap fill up to 4323.

Hypo 3 sellers accelerate down through the zipper, down through 4279 setting up a full-on liquidation down to 4234.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers close overnight gap up to 4323 and push and sustain trade up above 4333 setting up a move to test last Friday’s high 4355.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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There are few waves in southern California as legendary and ruthless as The Wedge, which occasionally kicks up in Newport beach.

The wave is a result of man made barriers on both sides of the beach which serve to collide sets of incoming waves.  The result is a wave face that rises up like a skyscraper and instantly crashes down with the force of two massive walls of water.

The behavior of that wave is a great natural example of how I expect the wedge currently forming on the Dow Jones Industrial Average to behave.

Traditional technical analysis considers an ascending wedge a bearish pattern, which is all the more reason for it to surprise investors with a massive blast up-and-out of it.  Sort of like this:

I have no intention of playing the blast up.  However, the rip higher is what I intend to catch, on the short side, and ride like the legendary boogie boarders of Newport beach.

With the right timing and a little bit of luck, I might just get the ride of the season.

TBD

 

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the session gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume. Price held yesterday’s mid before working up to the weekly high. At 8:30am Non-Farm Payrolls came out strong.   US February Nonfarm Payrolls +242k vs +195k expected and +151k previous.

Also on the economic docket today we have the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down. Price opened flat and sellers worked into the tape early on. They pushed below the Wednesday low briefly before finding a responsive bid and working back up through a good part of the range.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4320.75. from there look for a move down to 4309.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 Buyers push off the open, take out overnight high 4339 and work higher to test above this week’s globex high 4357.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong sellers take price down through 4309.25 setting up a move to test yesterday’s low 4293.50 setting up a liquidation down to 4279 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Thursday flat after a second consecutive normal overnight session.  Statistically speaking, both range and volume were normal on a balanced session which managed to hold and slightly build upon yesterday’s range.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data came out slightly worse than expected.

Yesterday ADP Employment data looked better-than-expected.  However both job reports are merely a preview for tomorrow morning’s Non-farm Payroll data, which is the biggest economic event this week.

Also on the economic calendar today we have ISM Non-Manufacturing, Factory Orders, and Durable Goods at 10am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up day.  We came into the day gap down and spent most of the session slowly working lower.  During the afternoon session the market printed a failed auction when it 1-ticked the low-of-day then sharply reversed.  Price then traversed the daily range and exceeded the morning high by 3-ticks before closing in the upper quadrant, earning the session a neutral extreme classification.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work the market higher.  Look for a move to close the Tuesday gap up at 4337.50 then up through overnight high 4344.50.  Look for responsive seller just above overnight high and for two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 strong buyers push up through overnight high 4344.50 then set their sights on yesterday’s globex high 4357.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work down through overnight low 4317.50.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4308.75 and two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Wednesday down 10 points after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price managed to extend upon yesterday’s trend during Globex and push deep into 01/07 range before setting into two way trade along the upper quadrant of yesterday.  At 8:15am ADP Employment data came in better-than-expected.  The initial reaction is selling.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Crude Oil inventories at 10:30am and Fed Beige book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a trend up, or conviction buying day.  After opening gap up, initiative buyers stepped in big time and rotated the market higher.  Their accumulation was sustained throughout the entire session and the market closed on session high.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to press into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4337.50.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4347.50 and then a move to take out overnight low 4325.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers close gap up to 4337.50 then sustain trade above 4347.50 setting up a move to target overnight high 4357.75.  Stretch targets to the upside are 4398.75 then 4406.50.

Hypo 3 sellers push down through overnight low 4325.50 and continue lower to test the 4300 century mark before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

 

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NASDAQ futures are set to gap up after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume.  Price worked below the Monday low print early on but held last Thursday’s range before turning in a strong rotation higher.  Since then price has balanced around the midpoint from yesterday’s trade.

On the economic calendar today we have ISM Manufacturing and Construction spending at 10am followed by a 52- and 4-week T-Bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme down day.  An early two-way auction gave way to buying which stalled before last week’s high.  Sellers then worked price through the entire range and we closed the day near session low.  Overall price action is flat as buyers and sellers crowd into these price levels.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4203.25.  From here look for responsive buyers to emerge and work to target overnight high 4242.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers take out overnight high 4242.50 early on but stall out ahead of 4250 setting up a move to fill the overnight gap down to 4203.25.  Look for sellers to stall out around the 4200 century mark and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers take out overnight high 4242.50 early and work up through 4250 setting up a move to target 4270 before two way trade ensues.  Stretch target is the “google” gap up at 4289.75.

Hypo 4 sellers are aggressive, close overnight gap down to 4203.25 then take out overnight low 4180.25 to target the MCVPOC at 4171.  Sellers continue lower to target 4151 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves

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The NASDAQ futures are priced to start the week flat after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price struggled to hold Friday’s lower quadrant before giving way to selling that poked the micro-composite low volume node [MCLVN] before buyers stepped in.  The MCLVN is lined up with the support level buyers defended numerous times last Thursday.  Since then buyers spent the morning working price back to flat.

On the economic calendar today we have Pending Home Sales at 10am, 3- and 6-month T-Bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week was choppy.  We came into the week with a big gap up and buyers sustained the gap through Monday.  Tuesday was a slow trend lower ahead of a large gap down into Wednesday.  An early balanced auction gave way to a strong trend up.  Thursday extended upon those gains.

Last Friday price opened gap up and spent the rest of the session on a slow grind lower.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work price up through overnight high 4238.50.  Look for sellers up at4242.50 and two way trade to ensues above 4200.

Hypo 2 buyers push up through 4242.50 and sustain trade above it setting up a secondary leg to target 4270 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers work lower off the open to test below last Friday low 4225.  Sellers accelerate lower from here to target 4200 then overnight low 4184.50.  Look for a strong responsive bid at the MCVPOC 4171 and two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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