NASDAQ futures are set to open gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  During Globex, price spent most of the time trading higher and managed to briefly trade beyond the Alphabet euphoria gap left behind on 02/01 before settling into two-way trade.  At 8:30am GDP data came out mostly in line.  The initial reaction appear to be a buy.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Personal Consumption Expenditure and the final February reading of U. of Michigan Confidence at 10am, and the Baker Hughes Rig Count data at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.   Price opened flat.  An early push lower was defended by responsive buyers who turned the market well-above the upper quadrant of Wednesday’s trend day.  By early afternoon buyers turned initiative and managed to rally price through to the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and trade down to 4267 before finding buyers who work to target overnight high 4293.25.  Look for a test above the February high 4309.25 then sellers step in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work down through 4267 setting up a full overnight gap fill down to 4245.  Responsive buyers are overrun as sellers test below overnight low 4240.75 briefly before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers thrust off the open, strong, and take out overnight high 4293.25 early.  Then they sustain trade above 4309.25 setting up a fast rally.  Upside target is 4330.25 with a stretch target of 4353.

Hypo 4 sellers trigger a liquidation.  They close overnight gap down to 4245 then sustain trade below overnight low 4240.75 setting up a fast move down to 4225 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are flat heading into Thursday after a balanced overnight session featuring elevated range and volume.  Price pushed up near the weekly high before trading lower and forming two-way trade that held the upper quadrant of yesterday’s range.  at 8:30am Durable Goods Orders came in well above expectations while Initial/Continuing jobless claims data was in-line with expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have House Price Index at 9am and a 7-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme trend day.  Sellers worked into trade early on after a large gap down and managed to push the market range extension down [briefly] before discovering a strong responsive bid.  Buyers turned initiative on the session and price managed to trend higher for the rest of the session.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work up through overnight high 4229.25  and target 4238.50 before sellers step in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers take out overnight high 4229.25 and sustain trade above 4238.50 setting up a secondary leg to target 4256.

Hypo 3 sellers push off the open and work lower to take out overnight low 4186.50 and work lower to target 4166.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 sellers move below 4166.50 and sustain trade below it setting up a liquidation move down to 4140 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are priced to open gap down after an overnight session featuring extreme range on elevated volume.  Balanced trade gave way to sellers who worked down into last Tuesday’s range before finding a small responsive bid.  At 7am MBA mortgage applications data came out way lower than last month.  Little reaction to the data so far.

Also on the economic docket today we have Market Services/Composite PMI, New Home Sales at 10am, Crude Oil inventories at 10:30am, a 2-year floating rate note auction at 11:30am, and a 5-year note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  Morning buyers made the small push up to close the overnight gap and held Monday’s range until just after the 10am Consumer Confidence read.  After the data sellers stepped in hard.  The managed to become initiative after the initial sale and continued pushing price lower to close the weekend gap [recall: Bulls Push Their Luck and Start Another Week Gap Up]

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and trade up to 4144 before finding sellers who work to take out overnight low 4101.25 then target the open gap down at 4092.50.

Hypo 2 sellers push off the open, take out overnight low 4101.25 and close the gap down at 4092.50 before finding buyers and going into two way trade below 4125.

Hypo 3 sellers gap-and-go triggering liquidation.  Trade down through 4092.50 early on and sustain trade below it setting up a secondary leg to target 4070.

Hypo 4 buyers managed to push up through 4144 and sustain trade above it, setting up a move to close the overnight gap at 4158.75.  From there they continue higher to take out overnight high 4168.50.  Stretch targets are 4172 then 4182.50.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are priced to open gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume–the first statistically normal Globex session this year.  Price pushed lower for most of the session but came into balance ahead of the weekend gap.

The economic calendar is busy today, with several retail stores reporting earnings.  We also have Consumer Confidence and Existing Home Sales at 10am, a 4-week T-Bill auction at 11:30am, and a 2-Year Note auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation up.  Price opened gap up and buyers worked into the market early on.  Most of the session was spent auctioning higher on balance trade until sellers stepped in during settlement period.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4213.  From here look for buyers to continue working higher to 4223.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers push down through overnight low 4183.50 on the open and target 4169.25.  Buyers are seen here but ultimately overrun as sellers continue lower to close the weekend gap fill down to 4161 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 liquidation takes hold.  After filling the weekend gap down to 4161 selling accelerates.  Stretch target is 4141.50.

Hypo 4 bulls close overnight gap up to 4213 and sustain trade above 4223.25 setting up a secondary leg to target 4239.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are coming into the week gap up after a Globex session featuring normal volume despite printing an extreme range.  Price made a brief probe lower before holding the Friday mid then pushing up above last week’s high.

On the economic calendar we have Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am, 3- and 6-month T-Bill auctions at 11:30am.

Last week began gap up also and the holiday shortened week saw buyers bidding price higher atop the gap.  After Wednesday’s trend day, the market spent the rest of the week consolidating/retracing the gains.

Last Friday was a normal variation up day with a P-shaped structure, suggesting a short squeeze took place.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and trade down to 4183.25.  Look for responsive buyers here (responsive relative to the open, initiative relative to last week’s close) who step in and work price up through overnight high 4220.  Look for sellers up at 4230 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers aggressive off the open, buying attempt at 4183.25 is overrun setting up a move down to 4169.50.  After a brief battle here, sellers continue lower to close the gap down to 4161.  Sellers work lower to target overnight low 4146.50 before finding responsive buyers down at 4141.25 and going into two-way trade.

Hypo 3 gap and go higher.  Buyers take out overnight high 4220 and then 4230 early, sustaining trade above the latter level to set up a secondary leg up to 4239 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume Profile, measured moves, and gaps:

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NASDAQ futures are priced to open gap down today after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Action was balanced until early this morning when sellers pushed in.  Price managed to trade down near Wednesday’s open print before finding responsive buyers and going into two-way trade.  At 8:30am Consumer Price Index came out better-than-expectations.  The initial reaction is buying.

Also on the economic calendar today we have the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down day.  Price slowly worked lower, down into the initiative buying seen Wednesday.  Several responsive bids stepped in throughout the orderly rotation lower but ultimately we traded down.  Given the day-4 unidirectional stat, the move made sense statistically.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4153.50.  From here look for buyers to make a move to take overnight high 4169.75.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4177 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work lower off the open and take out overnight low 4129.75 and test below Wednesday’s low 4123.  Look for buyers to defend around 4119.25 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 3 strong sellers push down through 4119.25 and move to target 4109.50.  Responsive buyers at this level are overrun and sellers continue lower to target the open gap down at 4092.50.

Hypo 4 strong buyers take out overnight high 4169.75 early on and sustain trade above 4177 setting up a move to target 4200.

Levels:

Volume profile, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are priced to gap up after an overnight session featuring an elevated range on normal volume.  Price managed to hold the top volume distribution of yesterday’s range before pushing up and finding sellers just below the upper quadrant of the 2/2 range.  At 8:30am Philadelphia Fed was a slight beat and Initial/Continuing Jobless claims data was mixed.  No directional reaction occurred so far.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Leading Indicators at 10am, oil inventories at 11am, and a 30-Year TIPS auction at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend day.  Price opened gap up and after a brief attempt lower buyers stepped in and aggressively initiated longs.  The early afternoon consolidated the gains before a secondary leg came in and extended price higher, effectively recapturing the liquidation day from back on 02/05 and more.  Value migrated to session high near end-of-day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to squeeze higher off the open.  Look for a move to take out overnight high 4227.50.  then look for responsive sellers up near 4230 who work to close the overnight gap down to 4196.25.

Hypo 2 sellers push into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4196.25.  Look for responsive bids down near 4186.50, but sellers continue and take out overnight low 4182.25.  Look for responsive buyers down near 4162.75.

Hypo 3 aggressive buyers push up through overnight high 4227.50 and sustain trade above 4230 setting up a second leg up to 4240.  Stretch targets are 4247.75 then 4262.

Hypo 4 sellers trigger a liquidation.  Push the gap fill down to 4182.25, then sellers make a fast move down to 4162.75.  Responsive buyers at this level are overrun setting up a move down through the air pocket to 4139.

Levels:

Volume profile, gaps, and measured moves:

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NASDAQ futures are priced to gap up into Wednesday after a Globex session featuring extreme range on elevated volume. Price rotated down through the well-established value area before finding a strong responsive bid at value area low.  The market then rallied up through most of the 02/05 liquidation day’s range.  At 8:30am Housing Starts and Building Permits data was mixed but mostly in-line.

Also on the economic calendar today we have Industrial/Manufacturing Production at 9:15am, a 4-week T-Bill auction at 11:30am, and FOMC Minutes at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  The morning featured selling which continued just after the first hour of trade to go range extension down.  Right around 4050 (a globex support level) responsive buyers (responsive relative to the open, initiative relative to last week’s close) stepped in.  We then rallied up through the entire range to go neutral and closed in the upper quadrant to be extreme.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for seller to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4092.50.  Look for a strong responsive buyer here and two way trade to ensue but not take out overnight high 4141.75.

Hypo 2 buyers continue higher off the open, take out overnight high 4141.75.  They continue climbing until finding responsive sellers up near 4166.75.  From here two way trade ensues north of 4100.

Hypo 3 sellers get aggressive.  The day 4 unidirectional statistic which is a study that has a 82% probability of a down day after 4 up days is in play.  After a gap fill down to 4092.50 sellers continue trading lower to take out overnight low 4068.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4, trend day up. Buyers take out 4166.75 early and sustain trade above it setting up a move to target the 4200 century mark.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured levels:

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NASDAQ futures are higher than last Friday’s close after several hours of Globex trading.  Yesterday the futures continued to trade while its underlying components were closed.  Both range and volume metrics are skewed [but elevated] due to the holiday.  Price managed to push up above last week’s high before printing a slight failed auction and settling into two way trade.  As we approach cash open sellers are becoming more active.  At 8:30am, Empire Manufacturing data came out well below expectations.  The initial reaction is selling.

Also on the economic docket today we have NAHB Housing Market Index at 10am, 3- and 6-month T-Bill auctions at 11:30am, and Long-term TICK Flows at 4pm.

Last week the market came into balance after a weak Monday.  The rest of the week was spent balancing out.  On Friday buyers started showing signs of becoming initiative.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight [President’s Day] inventory and trade down to 4045.25.  Responsive buyers may show up here but look for selling to continue down to 4015.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers defend north of 4050 and set up a move to target overnight high 4102.50.  Look for responsive sellers around 4109.50 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 full gap fill down to 4006.25.  Look for responsive buyers down near 3987.25.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured levels:

 

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NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after a session featuring extreme range on elevated volume.  Price managed to hold above Thursday’s mid before spending the rest of globex trade working higher.  The market stalled out just below the weekly high print from Wednesday.  At 8:30am Advance Retail Sales data came out slightly better than expected.  The initial reaction is buying.

Also on the economic calendar today we have the preliminary February read of U. of Michigan Confidence at 10am and the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  Price opened gap down and after briefly going range extension down buyers responded.  A second attempt was made to go lower but buyers defended again, pushing us through the range and neutral, then closing us in the upper quadrant to earn a neutral extreme day.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers work into the market and test the 3980 handle.  Responsive buyers defend here and work to take out overnight high 4012.50.  Price rallies up to 4050 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers gap and go higher, push up through 4012.50 and push to target 4050 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 full gap fill down to 3963.  Look for responsive buyers down at 3960 and two way trade ensues below 3980.

Hypo 4 gap fill down to 3963, responsive buyers at 3960 are overrun and we work to take out overnight low 3953.  Liquidation takes hold and we continue lower.  Stretch targets are 3922.50 then 3910, and 3896.50.

Levels:

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