NASDAQ futures are set to enter Wednesday gap up after an overnight session featuring a trend up.  The globex print features and elevated range on normal volume.  Price continued to work higher, reaching prices not seen since April 6th.  At 8:30am Advance Retail Sales data came out below expectations.

See also: Advance Retails Sales Whiffs; Market Rallies

Also on the economic docket today we have Business Inventories at 10am, crude oil inventories at 10:30am, a 10-Year Note Reopening auction at 11:30am, and the Fed Beige Book at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  The first hour of trade featured selling.  It was fast, but just as we entered a string of market profile single prints [slip zone] a strong responsive bid came in and sharply reversed the price action.  From there price resumed its grind higher, migrating value up as the day progressed.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and test the 4500 century mark.  Look for responsive buyers (responsive relative to the open, initiative relative to yesterday’s close) who work to take out overnight high 4528.75 then set their sights on the open gap at 4535.  Responsive sellers up at 4538 then two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers work all the way into overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4489.75 setting up a test below overnight low 4486.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4477.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buyers push up through overnight high 4528.75 and close the gap up at 4535 early then sustain trade above it, setting up a move to target 4546.75 then 4570.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into the session gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price pushed lower, extending the weekly low, briefly before buyers stepped in and the market went back into balance.

On the economic calendar today we have a 4-week T-bill auction at 11:30am, 3-year Note auction at 1pm, and a Monthly Budget Statement at 2pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  After coming into the week gap up, an early rally was faded and price went into chop before ultimately fading lower to end the day on session low.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4451.25.  From here look for a test below overnight low 4440.75 before responsive buyers step in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers close overnight gap down to 4451.25 then take out overnight low 4440.75.  Price continues lower and takes out 4428 trigger a fast liquidation trade down to 4402.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers defend ahead of a gap fill and work higher to take out overnight high 4472.75.  Look for responsive sellers ahead of the 4500 century mark and two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are set to begin the week gap up after an overnight session featuring an elevated range on normal volume.  Price briefly took out last week’s low before a hard spike rotation took price higher.  Since then the action has been consolidating up above Friday’s MID.

There are only a few economic events to be aware of today–first are the 3- and 6-month T-bill auctions at 11:30am and second Fed Chair Yellen is meeting with President Obama at 3pm.

See also: Obama To Meet Yellen Tomorrow To Discuss Ways To Screw Wall Street

Last week price went sideways.  After we spent all of Tuesday consolidating a gap down, Wednesday featured a trend up which was promptly negated Thursday by a trend down.  Friday price opened gap up and faded lower, bouncing along the lows as we wrapped up the week.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4468.50.  Look for responsive buyers down near 4454 and two way trade to ensue, slowly working higher to eventually take out overnight high 4498.

Hypo 2 buyers defend north of the low volume node at 4477.50 setting up a move to take out overnight high 4498.  After a bit of struggle around the 4500 century mark price continues higher to test above Friday high 4509.75.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4523.75 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers close overnight gap down to 4468.50 then set their sights on overnight low 4446.50.  This triggers a liquidation move down to 4415.50  before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are coming into Friday gap up after an overnight session featuring elevated range on normal volume.  Price held yesterday’s low before pushing higher, up through the pocket-zone (see green/red volume profile on chart below) and settling in the upper quadrant of Thursday’s range.

The economic calendar is light as we close out the week.  At 10am we have Wholesale Inventories and at 1pm the Baker Hughes rig count.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend down.  Which is interesting because Wednesday was a trend up. Thus yesterday’s action came as an unpleasant surprise to bulls.

Market Profile theory states that any entry in the direction of a trend day is “risk free” heading into the following session because we take out the session’s high (if trend up) by at least a tick more often (I have not run this study independently).

However, when you consider the current range, spanning about 7 days, since the major trend day back on 3/29, it makes more sense viewing these last two days of up and down trend.  The intermediate term time frame is battling it out after a multi-month rally higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push down into the overnight inventory and trade down to 4490.25.  Look for buyers here and a move to target overnight high 4504.75.  This sets up a fast move to 4524 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers push a full gap fill down to 4470.50.  Look for buyers around here and two way trade to ensue, but for price to stay range bound between 4500 and 4460.

Hypo 3 strong sellers fill overnight gap down to 4470.50 then set their sights on overnight low 4458.25 setting up a move to test Thursday’s low 4450.75 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 4 strong buyers push up through 4524 and sustain trade above it setting up a move to close Wednesday’s open gap up at 4535. Stretch upside targets are 4538, 4545.50, then 4569.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, & measured moves:

 

 

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are priced to enter Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price held balance in yesterday’s upper quadrant for most of the evening before succumbing to selling early this morning.  The selling was truncated well above yesterday’s midpoint before two way trade resumed.  The ECB talked dovish very early this morning, and t 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data came out in-line with expectations.

Also on the economic docket today we have consumer credit at 3pm and at 5:30pm Fed’s Yellen is having a talk with former Fed Chairs Volcker, Greenspan, and Bernanke.

See also: Masters of The Universe (Past and Present) Plan Ceremonial Meetup Tonight in NYC

Yesterday the NASDAQ printed a trend up.  The day started flat, and an early attempt by responsive sellers to defend against a test above Tuesday’s high was overrun by strong initiative buying.  The accumulation continued throughout the entire session, trading up through the open gaps left behind Tuesday (4/4 close, 4499.25) and Monday morning (4/1 close, 4529).  Price trended right up through the close.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4535.  From there look for a continued move up through overnight high 4539.50.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4546.25 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 sellers defend ahead of 4522 setting up a move to take out overnight low 4508.50.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4487.50 and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 strong selling off the open pushes down through 4487.50 to target 4472.  Look for responsive buyers down at 4468 before two way trade ensues.

UPDATED Levels, volume profiles, gaps, and measured move:

 

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are set to come into the week gap up after an overnight session featuring normal range on abnormally low volume.  Price managed to push up above last Wednesday’s high briefly before settling back into the day’s range.

At 8:30am we have two big data points, Advance Goods Trade Balance and Personal Consumption Expenditure.

Last week price started the week flat and continued sideways until Tuesday when a gap down found strong responsive buyers.  Said buyers were overrun on Wednesday.

Thursday was the last trading day of the holiday shortened week and started gap down.  The rest of the session was spent slowly trading higher.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap down to 4397.50.  Look for responsive buyers at 4391.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers continue pushing lower, down through 4391.50 setting up a move to target 4377.50 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 buyers defend ahead of the 4400 century market and begin working higher.  Price pushes up through overnight high 4425.75 and buyers target the overhead gap at 4435.25 before two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are set to enter Thursday gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price managed to recapture most of the FOMC buying reaction from last week on action that is seller controlled.  At 8:30am Initial/Continuing jobless claims data looked slightly better than expectations, as did Durable Goods Orders.  Ex-transports, the 8:30am Durable Goods data looked weak.

Also on the economic docket today we have Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am and the Baker Hughes rig count at 1pm.

Yesterday we printed a normal variation down.  Price opened gap down and sellers pressed lower off the open.  Responsive buyers stepped in ahead of Tuesday’s low but were ultimately overrun late in the day before two way trade ensued.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and trade up to 4381.25.  Look for sellers to defend here and work to take out overnight low 4365 setting up a move to target 4343 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers press up through 4381.25 and sustain trade above it setting up a gap fill to 4396.75.  From here overnight high is an easy take up at 4397.25.  Look for responsive sellers at 4412 then two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers press off the open and trade down to 4342.75 early.  Responsive buyers defend here but are ultimately overrun.  Downside target is the measured move down to 4337.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are heading into Wednesday flat after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price briefly took out the Tuesday high before settling into balance.  At 7am MBA Mortgage Applications had no impact on the tape.

Also on the economic docket today we have New Home Sales at 10am, Crude oil inventory at 10:30am, and a 2-year floating rate note auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a double distribution trend up.  Price opened gap down and a strong open drive worked price higher, closing the gap in the first 30 minutes.  From then on price went trend up, slowly.

The action was directional enough to break us away from the massive value area that began building on 3/16 after the FOMC rate decision [see market profile below].

Heading into today my primary expectation is for sellers to push into the tape and take out overnight low 4422 setting up a move to test 4408 before responsive buyers step in and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 buyers push up through overnight high 4441.25 setting up a move to target 4445.  Look for a continued move up to 4447 to close the open gap then responsive selling and two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers push down through 4408 and sustain trade below it setting up a move to target the massive VPOC at 4395.  Trade gets choppy here, with responsive buyers the first go around, but any subsequent retests are likely to explore down to 4386.

Hypo 4 buyers sustain trade above 4447 and test 4452.50 before selling comes in.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

Please keep your thoughts and prayers with the friends and families affected by the senseless terrorizing of Brussels.

See more: 28 Killed, Scores Injured in Suicide Attacks Across Brussels

NASDAQ futures are set to enter the session gap down after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price briefly exceeded yesterday’s low before coming into balance at the apex of a multi-day value formation [see market profile image below].

On the economic calendar today we have House Price Index at 9am, Markit Manufacturing PMI at 9:45am, and a 4-week T-Bill auction at 11:30am.

Yesterday we printed a neutral extreme up.  A choppy open gave way to selling, albeit briefly, which pushed the market range extension down.  Moments later bidders arrived and worked price back up through the entire daily range, eventually closing the day out near the highs.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to work into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4416.25.  This puts us in range to test above overnight high 4420.50.  Look for responsive sellers up at 4424.50 and two way trade to ensue.

Hypo 2 sellers defend the 4400 handle and work price lower to take out overnight low 4383.75.  Look for responsive buyers around 4370 and two way trade to ensues.

Hypo 3 strong buying pushes up through 4424.50 and sustains trade above it, setting up a secondary leg higher to target 4445.

Hypo 4 selling liquidation takes hold.  Take out overnight low 4383.75 early then sustain trade below 4370 setting up a move to target 4345.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »

NASDAQ futures are set for a slight gap down opening after an overnight session featuring normal range and volume.  Price traversed most of the Friday range, holding the low before zooming higher to briefly make a new swing high before retracing most of the move.

On the economic calendar today we have Existing Home Sales at 10am and a 3- and 6-month T-Bill auction at 11:30am.

Last week price worked higher.  NASDAQ waited to hear the FOMC rate decision then proceeded to rally through the end of the week.  Friday we printed a normal variation up on a session that was balanced overall.

Heading into today my primary expectation is for buyers to push into the overnight inventory and close the gap up to 4394.75.  From here look for a move to take out overnight high 4414 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 2 strong buyers push up through overnight high 4414 and work higher to target 4425 before two way trade ensues.

Hypo 3 sellers push down through overnight low 4376.75.  Look for responsive buyers down near 4360 and two way trade ensues.

Levels:

Volume profiles, gaps, and measured moves:

Comments »